Percentage Change In Consumption Research Articles

Analysis of soybean production and import trends and its import factors in Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the factors affecting soybean imports in Indonesia and to know the trend and projection of Indonesian soybean production as well as the import in 2016-2020. The basic method used in this research is the description analysis method. The data used are secondary data in the form of time series data from 1979-2015. Methods of data analysis using simultaneous equations model with 2SLS (Two Stage Least Square) method and Trend analysis. The results showed that the factors affecting soybean imports in Indonesia are consumption and production. Consumption has positive effect while production is negatively affected. The percentage changed in soybean imports is greater than the percentage change in consumption and production of soybeans. Consumption is positively influenced by imports and production, while production is influenced positively by consumption and negative by imports. The production trend of soybean in 2016-2020 has a tendency to increase with a percentage of 11.18% per year. Production in 2016 is projected at 1.110.537 tons while in 2020 it will increase to 1,721,350 tons. The import trend in 2016-2020 has a tendency to increase with an average percentage of 4.13% per year. Import in 2016 is projected at 2.224.188 tons while in 2020 it will increase to 2.611.270 tons.

Changing North American vehicle-travel price sensitivities: Implications for transport and energy policy

There is a growing interest in transportation pricing reforms (increased fuel taxes, efficient road and parking pricing, and distance-based vehicle insurance and registration fees) to help achieve various policy objectives including reduced traffic congestion, accidents and pollution emissions. Their effectiveness is affected by the price sensitivity of vehicle fuel consumption and travel, measured as elasticities (percentage change in consumption caused by a percentage change in price). Lower elasticities imply that price reforms are relatively ineffective in achieving objectives, high prices significantly harm consumers, and rebound effects are small so strategies that increase vehicle fuel efficiency are relatively effective at conserving fuel. Higher elasticities imply that price reforms are relatively effective in achieving objectives, consumers can easily reduce fuel consumption and vehicle travel, and rebound effects are relatively large. Some studies found that US price elasticities declined during the last quarter of the Twentieth Century but recent evidence suggests that vehicle travel has since become more price sensitive. This article examines evidence of changing vehicle fuel and travel elasticities, and discusses policy implications.

Mechanisms of change in control group drinking in clinical trials of brief alcohol intervention: Implications for bias toward the null

Reductions in control group consumption over time that are possibly related to research design affect the impact of brief alcohol interventions (BAI) in clinical settings. We conducted a systematic review to identify research design factors that may contribute to control group change, strategies to limit these effects and implications for researchers. Studies with control group n > 30 were selected if they published baseline and outcome consumption data, conducted trials in clinical settings in Anglophone countries and did not censor gender or age. Among 38 studies cited in 20 reviews through October 2009, 16 met criteria (n = 31-370). In 54%, controls received alcohol specific handouts, advice and/or referral. Both the number and depth of assessments were highly variable. The percentage change in consumption ranged from-0.10 to-0.84 (mean-0.32), and effect size from 0.04 to 0.70 (mean 0.37). Published data were insufficient for meta-analysis. Researchers should consider strategies to reduce the impact of research design factors, such as procedures to enhance sample diversity, blind subjects to study purpose to limit social desirability bias, reduce the number and depth of instruments (assessment reactivity), and finally, analytic techniques to decrease the impact of outliers and regression to the mean. This review identifies problems with retrospective analysis of predictors of control group change, and underscores the need to design prospective studies to permit identification, quantification and adjustment for potential sources of bias in BAI trials.

The Contributions of Agricultural Growth to Poverty Reduction in Ethiopia

This study investigates agricultural growth-poverty relationships at the national and household levels. A rural household model is used to measure the impact of agricultural growth (or decline) on consumption first and the effect of consumption changes on poverty using regression analyses. Two approaches are used here to estimate the agricultural growth elasticity of poverty. First, the growth elasticity of poverty is determined and then using the agriculture elasticity of growth, the agriculture growth requirement for the change in poverty is estimated indirectly. In the second approach, a two-stage analysis is used to arrive at the growth requirement by estimating first the determinants of welfare (household consumption expenditure) and estimating the poverty impact of a certain growth using the relationship between expenditure and poverty incidence. Accordingly, a forty-year time-series national account data has indicated that a 1 percent growth in agriculture would lead to a 0.32 percent growth in GDP. Given the GDP growth elasticity of poverty, it also followed that a 1 percent increase in agricultural production would lead to a 0.24 percent decline in poverty incidence at the national level. At the Household level, the base simulation has provided a poverty incidence of 40.2 percent in rural areas with 11.2 and 24.9 poverty gap and severity respectively for the year 1995/96. Given the actual and base simulation poverty measures and assuming the percentage change in percapita value added of agricultural production reflects the same percentage change in consumption per capita (adult) and that income distribution remains the same, the application of the same poverty line in real terms4, has provided a poverty incidence of 63.6 percent and a poverty gap of .22 for the year 2000/01. Such a rapid increase in poverty level goes very well with the general perception of the public as expressed during the PRSP consultation and with other studies by non-governmental organizations. Here agricultural growth elasticity of poverty becomes -3.62, which is very high. When inflation is ignored the agricultural growth elasticity of poverty becomes -2.12. Based on another assumption that takes the long-term trend in agricultural growth, poverty incidence and gap for 2000/01 become 46.5 percent 13.7, implying agricultural growth poverty elasticity of -0.98, or almost equal percentage change in opposite direction. So, it is likely that a one percentage increase in agricultural per capita value added will result into a one percent decline in poverty level of rural households.Ethiopian Journal of Economics Vol. 14 (1) 2005: pp. 1-26

The Long-Run Consumption Effects of Earnings Shocks

While prior studies of job displacement and disability have measured the impact of these shocks in terms of lost earnings, there has been no previous research which links these permanent earnings shocks to the long-run consumption smoothing behavior of these households. Since consumption is generally considered a better measure of well-being than income, understanding the link between these earnings shocks and consumption is important in trying to gauge the magnitude of the long-run impact caused by such events. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the analysis finds the percentage change in consumption is generally less than that of the head's earnings and total family income, especially at the time of the shock. The results also indicate that displaced households respond to an increase in the probability of future job losses by reducing their consumption prior to a job loss. These results suggest that only focusing on earnings will overestimate the impact of these shocks on household well-being.