Price Of Pepper Research Articles

Implementasi Algoritma XGBoost untuk Memprediksi Harga Jual Cabai Rawit di DKI Jakarta

This research focuses on applying the XGBoost algorithm to analyze and predict cayenne pepper prices. The main aim is to exploit XGBoost's exceptional capability to manage large datasets and discern intricate patterns for precise price forecasting. The dataset comprises historical cayenne pepper price data, along with pertinent economic and climatic factors. The XGBoost model was developed and validated on this dataset, with its performance assessed using metrics. The results indicated a high level of accuracy, achieving an R² score of 99% on the training set and 92% on the test set, reflecting a strong alignment between predicted and actual prices. Moreover, the model attained an average cross-validation score of 96%, reinforcing its robustness and reliability. These findings highlight XGBoost's efficacy in agricultural price prediction, offering stakeholders a potent tool for data-driven decision-making. This study enriches the literature on machine learning applications in agriculture and emphasizes XGBoost's potential to enhance predictive accuracy and operational efficiency.

Demand analysis of cayenne chilli pepper in Surakarta City

Background: This study aims to analyze the factors that affect the cayenne chilli pepper demand, to know its elasticity and to forecast its demand for 2019 up to 2023. Findings: By using time series data of 1993-2017, this study applies multiple regresiion analysis. Methods: The method used for demand foreasting analysis is Least Squares Method and for the error estimator is used Mean Average Deviation. Conclusion: The results show that cayenne chilli pepper price, red chilli pepper price, onion price, the population and income per influence the cayenne chilli pepper demand in Surakarta City. The price elasticity of demand is inelastic and the pruduct categorized as normal goods. Cross elasticity indicates that cayenne chilli pepper subsituted with red chilli with the value of cross elasticity 0,137 and complementered with onion which the value of cross elasticity is -0,094. The result of cayenne chilli pepper demand forecasting for 2019 up to 2023 shows that the potential demand will always increas every year. The value of demand forecast on 2019 is 852.350,24 kg; the value of demand forecast on 2020 is 854.291,99 kg; the value of demand forecast on 2021 is 856.233,74 kg; the value of demand forecast on 2022 is 858.175,49 kg and the value of demand forecast on 2023 is 860. 117,24 kg with the value of error estimator is 0,0048 kg.

Chili Price Prediction One Year Ahead Using the Gated Recurrent Unit Method

Chili is an important commodity in the Indonesian economy, and it experiences significant price fluctuations. This is due to several factors, such as demand and supply in the market and climate and temperature factors. The prediction of chili prices is important to minimize the risk of loss to the community and the government. Previous studies have used ARIMA, SVR, MLP, and RNN methods to predict chili prices. However, these methods are still considered less effective, especially in processing large amounts of information. In this study, the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) method is used as an alternative, and this method is designed to overcome obstacles to remembering long information. The results show that GRU provides excellent prediction performance, with a MAPE value below 10% for all types of chili peppers. The test results that have been carried out show that the size of the window data affects the accuracy of predicting chili prices. In addition, the combination of hyperparameters, namely hidden neurons and epochs, also influences the accuracy of predicting chili prices. The lowest MAPE value is obtained in predicting large red chili pepper prices of 4.850% with 512 hidden neurons and 100 epochs. Then, a MAPE of 6.434% was obtained using 512 hidden neurons and 100 epochs to predict curly red chili pepper prices. In predicting the price of green bird's eye pepper, a MAPE of 7.288% is obtained with a combination of 512 hidden neurons and 150 epochs. Finally, the lowest MAPE value is obtained in predicting the price of red bird's eye pepper at 6.452% with a combination of 512 hidden neurons and 150 epochs.

APPLICATION OF THE ARIMA METHOD IN FORECASTING THE PRICE RED CAYENNE PEPPER IN MAKASSAR CITY

Red chili is one of the commodities with very tall cost changes. The cost variance of red chili can be caused by a huge amount of supply and request. The higher the amount of supply, the lower the cost, and the lower the amount of supply, the higher the cost. This study aims to implement the ARIMA method in forecasting red cayenne pepper prices in Makassar City. Data analysis to forecast red cayenne pepper prices used the ARIMA method with the results show that the price range of chili is from IDR 13,000 to IDR 80,000, with a mean value of IDR 38,218. The model with the minimum SSE and MSE value is ARIMA(1,1,1), so this model be used in time series data modeling for forecasting. The results of forecasting using the best model obtained a MAPE value of 15.90%, which is in the range of 10-20%, so it can be concluded that the ability of the ARIMA(1,1,1) model in forecasting the price of red cayenne pepper includes the good category.

Growth and Instability Analysis of Pepper with Reference to Production and Price

Black pepper, the most traded spice in the world is native to South India. Though Pepper is popularly known as black gold, it does not provide the value of gold to its cultivators because of several persisting problems. Market imperfections, illegal imports, ineffective implementation of minimum import duty, lack of institutional support etc are some of the problems faced by pepper growers. Production of pepper has become unremunerative due to depressed prices in the domestic and/or global markets coupled with increasing input costs. In this context, the study has focused on trends in area, production and yield of pepper, the seasonal effect of price and also the impact of the production of pepper on its prices to diagnose reasons for price fluctuations. The main objective of the study is to examine trends in area, production and productivity in major pepper-producing states and monthly price variations of pepper in India. The study relies on time series data. The data on area, production, productivity and monthly average price of pepper have been collected from the Spices Board of India. To study the behaviour of prices of pepper in different months, a seasonal effect has been constructed. To study the interrelationship between the price of pepper with its production and different months, a correlation technique has been employed. Regression analysis is being undertaken to know the present and future price trends of pepper. The time-series analysis of the monthly average prices of pepper is attempted from 2018-19 to 2022-23. The study revealed that there is a strong positive correlation between the prices of pepper and different months. The regression coefficient reveals that month significantly contributes to the growth and instability in pepper prices in the market. The study also suggests that, if the government could provide enough institutional support to stabilise the market prices, the pepper growers would certainly consider their crop as black gold.

EXPORT PERFORMANCE OF INDONESIAN BLACK PEPPER IN THE UNITED STATES MARKET

Indonesia pepper, contributing 11% of the U.S. market, is below Vietnam as a significant supplier and is followed by Brazil. Based on the growth rate of Indonesian pepper exports to the U.S. market, Indonesia is second after Vietnam. Indonesian pepper exports to the American market have limitations, and competition exists between the countries exporting pepper. The research used the export of a sort of whole black pepper. This study aims to determine Indonesian black pepper's competitiveness and demand position in the U.S. market. The performance of Indonesia's black pepper exports to the U.S. market was analyzed using the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) method, export product dynamics (EPD), and the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) method. The dependent variable is the share of Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil, and India, and the independent variable is the price of pepper from the countries. The analysis results show that black pepper has comparative and competitive competitiveness. Indonesian black pepper has the highest expenditure elasticity, elastic price elasticity, and cross elasticity; it is a substitute for Vietnam and complementary to Brazil and India. Indonesian black pepper has good export performance and a high demand for imports, so Indonesia has the potential to increase exports by increasing the export volume of quality pepper at competitive prices, according to what the U.S. market wants.

ANALISIS INTEGRASI PASAR KOMODITAS CABAI RAWIT DI PROVINSI GORONTALO

<em><span lang="SV">This study aims to analyze the vertical market integration of cayenne pepper in Gorontalo Province. The sampling method is based on the availability of cayenne pepper price data over a period of 4 years (2017 to 2020). The type of data source in this study is secondary data, namely data on the price of cayenne pepper at the producer, wholesaler, and consumer levels. The analytical method used in this study is quantitative. The quantitative method uses cointegration analysis and ECM (error correction model). The results show that the cayenne pepper market in Gorontalo Province has been integrated </span><span lang="EN-US">i</span><span lang="SV">both </span><span lang="EN-US">i!</span><span lang="SV">in the short and long term between farmers and marketing institutions/ wholesalers, marketing institutions/ wholesalers and consumers, and between consumers and farmers. That is, if there is a change in the price of cayenne pepper at the consumer level, it will be transmitted to the level of marketing institutions/wholesalers. And if there is a change in the price of cayenne pepper at the wholesaler level, it will be transmitted to farmers. Then the market between consumers and farmers is</span><span lang="EN-US"> integrated based on the model used.</span></em>

Fluctuations and trends in the prices of red chilies and cayenne peppers in the traditional markets of Makassar City

Chili is a strategic food commodity which is the main seasoning for food in Indonesia. The chili commodity has high price fluctuations because production and supply are highly dependent on the risk of climate change. This research aims to analyse fluctuations, trends and comparisons of prices for large red chilies, curly red chilies and red cayenne peppers in the Makassar City Traditional Market. The data type is monthly time series secondary data for January 2020 to May 2023. Data analysis is coefficient variation, trend linear analysis, and t test. The results of this research show that the prices of large red chilies and curly red chilies have moderate fluctuations, while the prices of red cayenne peppers have high fluctuations. The price trend for large red chilies increased by IDR 144.24 per kilogram, curly red chilies IDR 200.99 per kilogram, and cayenne pepper IDR 362.42 per kilogram per month. The price of cayenne pepper has proven to be significantly higher than the price of large red chilies and the price of curly red chilies. The prices of red chilies and cayenne peppers at Pabaeng-baeng Market and Daya Market do not have a significant difference.

Participatory Variety Selection of Hot Pepper Varieties at Halaba and Negelle Arsi Districts, Southern Ethiopia

In Ethiopia hot pepper is one of the important vegetable crops produced for home consumption, local markets and international markets. The price of hot pepper in both green pod and dry pod was being increased due to various factors. Selection of best variety for green pod and also for dry pod purpose is mandatory before production. Hence, participatory variety selection was conducted at Halaba and Negelle Arsi districts of the Southern Ethiopia during 2020/2021 cropping season. Five varieties (Melka Oli, Melka Awaze, Melka Shote, Melka Zala, and Melka Dera) were evaluated for green pod purpose and four varieties Melka Awaze, Melka Shote, Melka Zala, Mareko Fana, and local variety were used for dry pod evaluation purpose at both sites. The Researchers` data and farmers preferences toward the varieties were collected and analyzed using SAS software and pair wise ranking, respectively. From the farmers` evaluation results Melka Dera followed by Melka Shote selected for green pod and Mareko Fana for dry pod purpose. Researchers` evaluation results also showed that Mareko Fana was higher in yield and yield components as compared to other varieties evaluated for dry pod purpose. Therefore, based on the results obtained it is better and recommended to produce Melka Dera and Melka Shote for green pod and Mareko Fana for dry pod for the farmers of Halaba and Negelle Arsi districts and other similar agro-ecologies. However, for comprehensive results the participatory variety evaluation should be repeated using irrigation and all possible hot pepper varieties for both green pod and dry pod purposes.

Nowcasting of Chili Pepper (Capsicum frutescens L.) Prices in East Java Province Using Multi-Layer Perceptron Method

The aims of study is to predict the price of chili pepper at the provincial level in East Java by looking for the best input variable from three types of input variables, price of chili pepper at the regency and city levels, natural factors, and word search index on Google Trends as an approach to the causes of chili pepper price fluctuations. The Multi-Layer Perceptron method, accompanied by a search for the best combination of model parameters is selected to get the model with the best nowcasting ability. The result shows that the best model for nowcasting is characterized by: the input variable is price of chili pepper at the regency and city levels with three hidden layers and 32, 45, and 51 neurons in each hidden layer, maximum iteration is 200 iterations, maximum iteration when the model not increase in performance for applying early stopping is 20 iterations, non-linear activation used is RELU (Rectified Linear Unit), and optimization function used is ADAM optimizer. The accuracy of nowcasting in this study is highly accurated with MAPE smaller than 10%.

Farmers’ Behavior in White Pepper Production in Delas Village, Airgegas District, South Bangka Regency

The decline in the amount of pepper production in Bangka Belitung was caused by the decline in the selling price of white pepper received by farmers. Apart from the decline in the selling price of white pepper, the development of other plantation commodities also influences farmers' behavior in cultivating white pepper, so that many pepper farmers choose to switch to farming other commodities. The aims of this research are 1) to describe farmers' behavior in cultivating white pepper in Delas Village, Airgegas District, South Bangka Regency, and 2) to analyze the factors that influence farmers' decisions in cultivating white pepper in Delas Village, Airgegas District, South Bangka Regency. . This research was conducted using a survey method. Sampling used purportive sampling with a sample size of 80 respondents. Data were analyzed using quantitative descriptive and binary logistic regression. The results of the research show that the behavior of farmers in cultivating white pepper in Delas Village with a percentage of 30 percent is still cultivating pepper even though the price of white pepper is low for the reason that it has been a culture passed down from generation to generation and so that the availability of pepper remains even in smaller quantities. Meanwhile, 70 percent of farmers chose to change their pepper farming to other commodities such as palm oil and rubber. The factors that influence farmers' decisions in cultivating white pepper are the variables Number of Dependents and other sources of income.

PROFIL PERMINTAAN CABAI RAWIT PADA RUMAH TANGGA PEDESAAN DI KABUPATEN JEMBER

The price of cayenne pepper, which tends to fluctuate, will have implications for demand. In addition, consumer income, age, education, number of consumer family members, and access to financial institutions have the potential to affect consumer demand. This study aims to (1) analyze the level of demand for cayenne pepper based on consumer income levels, and (2) analyze the determinants of cayenne pepper demand. This research was conducted in Jember Regency, East Java. The sample used in this study was 120 people. The analytical method used is the calculation of average consumption and multiple linear regression analysis. The results showed that the level of income had little effect on the level of consumption of cayenne pepper in rural Jember Regency. Factors that have a significant effect on the demand for cayenne pepper in rural households in Jember Regency are the variables of consumer age, consumer education, chili price, location dummy, number of family members, and financial inclusion dummy.

Does Agricultural Zoning Policy Impact on Price Spatial Dependence?: Red Chili Pepper Price In Java Island During COVID-19 Pandemic

A sustainable equal distribution of price stability is the goal of agricultural zone policy. By performing an empirical study comparison of the districts on Java Island, 2,066 before and after the implementation of the policy, this research aims to demonstrate it. The spatial effects of agricultural zone policy on red chili pepper price are used to measure the policy’s impact. The findings of the estimation revealed that the price of red chili peppers, which serves as a gauge of the degree of spatial dependence, is significantly influenced by factors related to the world economy. Once the COVID-19 pandemic policy was put into place, there has been a strengthening of spatial dependence, and the price variations of red chili peppers in the agricultural development zone are relatively better than in the others.

ANALISIS KETERPADUAN PASAR CABAI RAWIT (CAPSICUM FRUTESCENS L) MENGGUNAKAN ECM DI PROVINSI BENGKULU

ABSTRACT 
 This research is an integrated market "Chili Rawit" in Bengkulu Province. The districts analyzed were Rejang Lebong, Kepahiang, Kaur, Mukomuko and Bengkulu Utara. The purpose of this research is to analyze the horizontal market integration of Cayenne Pepper or "Chili Rawit". The data used is secondary data, namely data on the price of cayenne pepper in Bengkulu Province per month and was taken for the last 3 years, from 2016 to 2018. The analysis was carried out descriptively for price behavior and to analyze horizontal market integration using the Eviews 7 application shows that the price development in the variation in the price of cayenne pepper that occurs between Rejang Lebong Regency and the other four districts is high and unstable, the price development in these five districts fluctuates due to factors influencing demand and supply, while the horizontal market integration of cayenne pepper in Bengkulu Province is already integrated. Based on the results of market integration analysis between the price of cayenne pepper in Rejang Lebong Regency as a producer and in Kepahiang, Kaur, Mukomuko District, Bengkulu utara as retailers in Bengkulu Province, it shows that there is integration. This is indicated by the results of the cointegration test on the residual value of the regression of the two stationary variables.
 Keywords: Price Behavior, Horizontal Market Integration.

Integrasi Pasar Cabai Rawit Di Kabupaten Kutai Kartanegara

One of the main measures of marketing efficiency is market integration, which contributes to the formation of agricultural policy. Thus, it is important to understand how much changes in consumer prices can impact farmers in order to increase the effectiveness of policies and price control measures. The purpose of this research is to look at the integration of cayenne pepper prices in the Mangkurawang and Loa Kulu markets using the correlation coefficient R. Data from ten traders in each market were collected for 30 days. The results showed that although there was a positive relationship between the price of cayenne pepper in the Mangkurawang and Loa Kulu markets, the correlation coefficient was moderate, namely 0.49. In addition, price margins in the Mangkurawang and Loa Kulu markets tended to be stable during the study. This shows that changes in the price of cayenne pepper were relatively stable over that time period. Although there is a correlation between the price of cayenne pepper in the two markets, the correlation is not strong. The price of cayenne pepper in both markets is still integrated, although not fully, because the price relationship is not strong; however, differences in competition in the Mangkurawang and Loa Kulu markets can affect the level of price parity, while differences in transportation costs can affect price margins.

Analysis of Hot Pepper (Capsicum frutescens L.) Vertical Market Integration in Gorontalo Province

This research gives 1) an identification of hot pepper prices in Gorontalo Province, 2) an analysis of hot pepper price fluctuation in Gorontalo Province, and 3) an analysis of hot pepper vertical market integration in Gorontalo Province. It was undertaken in April-June 2022. The data used were secondary. The method was descriptive-quantitative, with analyses of IMC (Index of Market Connection), Coefficient of Variation (CV) by finding the standard deviation, and price fluctuation. The results demonstrated the highest price of hot pepper around IDR67,708.00/kg prevalent at the consumer level in 2019. The lowest one, that was around IDR26,392.00/kg came about at the producer level in 2018. The price mostly fluctuated at the consumer level with a coefficient of the standard deviation of 17,281.52. At the producer level, it came with a standard deviation of 12,202.82. Price stability was relatively small at the producer level with a low-price fluctuation but was relatively high at the consumer level that, accordingly, had a high price fluctuation. The IMC (Index Market of Connection) was 0.76. The market integration grew higher or stronger. That is, price changes at the consumer level could be significantly perceived by producers. It exhibited how prices at the retailer level affected prices at the farmer and consumer levels.

Analisis Integrasi Harga Cabai Rawit Pada Pasar Tradisional Di Kabupaten Gorontalo

This study aims: 1) How is the price fluctuation of cayenne pepper in Mootilango District and the market in Limboto District, Gorontalo Regency, 2) How is integration in Mootilango District and Limboto District, Gorontalo Regency. This research was conducted at the Mootilango market and Limboto market in September-November 2022. The research method was survey or interview, sampling using purposive sampling. The sample in this study was retail traders who know the weekly price of cayenne pepper in each market based on the availability of chili price data. raw materials per week for the past year (2021 to 2022). Types of research data sources are primary data and secondary data. Analysis of the data used to determine price fluctuations of cayenne pepper in the Mootilango sub-district market and Limboto market uses the coefficient of variation method. To evaluate whether there is vertical market integration, the (IMC) method is used between the reference market and the retail market. The results showed that the Mootilango market fluctuated more than the Limboto market. The results of the IMC analysis show that the integration between the Mootilango market and the Limboto market is high. This means that price formation in the Limboto market is perfectly transmitted to the Mootilango market.

THE ANALYSIS OF PEPPER MARKET INTEGRATION IN LAMPUNG PROVINCE WITH INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

Pepper is one of the plantation commodities traded in the international market. The price of pepper at the producer level is determined by the market price of pepper on the world market. This research aims to analyze the market integration between the Lampung Province pepper market and the international market. This study uses secondary data in the form of monthly pepper prices at the producer level of Lampung Province, the domestic market of Lampung Province and the international market for the period January 2013 - December 2020. The data analysis uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results showed that there was integration between the pepper market at the producer level of Lampung Province, the domestic market of Lampung Province and the international market in the long and short term, but the price changes that occurred could not be conveyed perfectly between markets due to the adjustment time in each market in response. price changes that occur.

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Konsumen Dalam Volume Pembelian Cabe Merah di Pasar Sulak Kecamatan Kayu Aro Kabupaten Kerinci

The research was carried out at the Sulak Market, Kayu Aro District, Kerinci Regency, with the aim of describing consumer decisions in purchasing red chilies at the Sulak Market, Kayu Aro District, Kerinci Regency and analyzing the factors that influence consumers in purchasing volume of red chilies. Sampling in this study was using accidental sampling technique with 35 respondents. The data collected includes primary data and secondary data with cross section data types. The results showed that consumer behavior in Kayu Aro District, namely that the average consumer has a spicy taste, therefore consumers always buy red chilies and make preparations because consumers feel happy if red chilies are always available at home. In addition, consumers also think that they are less appetizing if they eat without chili sauce, which is a processed product from red chilies. From the results of this study, it was obtained that consumer behavior towards decisions in purchasing red chilies at Sulak Market, Kayu Aro District, seen from the variable price, number of family dependents, and consumer tastes, they decided to keep buying red chilies. Consumers will feel satisfied if they consume red chili and if it is always available. The results of statistical tests using multiple linear regression, simultaneously (the price of red chilies, the price of substitute goods or cayenne pepper, the number of family members and consumer tastes) have a real influence on consumer decisions in purchasing red chilies at Sulak Market, Kayu Aro District, Kerinci Regency. Partially test there are three factors that significantly affect consumer decisions in buying red chili, namely the price of red chili, the number of family members and consumer tastes while the price of cayenne pepper has no effect. The coefficient of determination for these three factors is 75.2%, which means that these three factors as independent variables are able to explain consumer decisions in purchasing red chilies as dependent variables and around 24.8% cannot be explained by the model but explained by other factors. those models.

Analisis Pengaruh Barang Substitusi dan Komplementer terhadap Fungsi Permintaan Cabai di Indonesia

The demand for red chilies grows yearly, in tandem with the increase in population or industries that use red chili as raw resources. This research aims to examine the effect of the determiner of chili demand in Indonesia and categorize them as substitutes or complementary goods. This research employs a quantitative descriptive design with secondary data analysis from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The variables studied were the average prices of red chilies, cayennes pepper, tomatoes, shallots, and garlic in Indonesia from 2010 to 2020. Cayenne pepper, tomato, garlic, and garlic prices significantly affect the 1% level, whereas the population does not affect red chili demand. The analytical tool used is the Cobb-Douglas model regression and elasticity analysis. The result shows that the impact of cayenne pepper, tomato, and garlic prices is directly proportional to the demand for red chilies. On the other hand, shallots significantly have an inverse impact on the demand for chilies. The high price of cayenne pepper, the cost of tomatoes, also the price of garlic will increase the demand for red chili, while the high price of shallots will reduce the need for red chili. According to price elasticity analysis, the cost of red chili is elastic to the demand for red chili in Indonesia. Cross-elasticity analysis shows that cayennes pepper, tomatoes, and garlic are substitutes, while shallots are complementary goods to red chilies.