Risk In People Research Articles

Editorial: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) - advances in epidemiology, diagnostics, treatments, host-directed therapies, pathogenesis, vaccines, and ongoing challenges.

Editorial: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) - advances in epidemiology, diagnostics, treatments, host-directed therapies, pathogenesis, vaccines, and ongoing challenges.

Epidemic Risk Assessment by a Novel Communication Station Based Method.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused serious consequences in the last few months and trying to control it has been the most important objective. With effective prevention and control methods, the epidemic has been gradually under control in some countries and it is essential to ensure safe work resumption in the future. Although some approaches are proposed to measure people's healthy conditions, such as filling health information forms or evaluating people's travel records, they cannot provide a fine-grained assessment of the epidemic risk. In this paper, we propose a novel epidemic risk assessment method based on the granular data collected by the communication stations. We first compute the epidemic risk of these stations in different intervals by combining the number of infected persons and the way they pass through the station. Then, we calculate the personnel risk in different intervals according to the station trajectory of the queried person. This method could assess people's epidemic risk accurately and efficiently. We also conduct extensive simulations and the results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Determinants of people's seismic risk perception: A case study of Malakand, Pakistan

Earthquakes around the globe are threatening both human lives and infrastructure. It is essential to assess risk perception of people to introduce appropriate disaster risk reduction strategies. This study aims to identify various factors influencing people's perceptions of earthquake risk. The survey was conducted in earthquake-prone sub-districts of Malakand. Using the random sampling method, 240 households were interviewed. The interviews were conducted using semi-structured questionnaires. The risk perception index was constructed using indicators extracted from the literature review. For identifying socioeconomic variables influencing risk perception, multivariate regression analysis was performed. Results revealed that seismic risk perceptions varied significantly with age, income, experience, and house type. People who suffered in the past from earthquakes had a higher risk perception. People who had constructed their houses using engineering materials tend to have low-risk perception. It was also found that people were aware of the risks posed by earthquakes, but did not adopt any precautionary measures, due to their fatalistic stance towards future earthquake occurrence. As a result, their susceptibility to earthquakes has increased substantially. The study recommends awareness campaigns and educational programs to improve the risk perception of local people, especially about the importance of earthquake-resistant design and building codes.

Distinguishing three effects of time pressure on risk taking: Choice consistency, risk preference, and strategy selection

AbstractQuick decision making under risk is ubiquitous in modern times, yet its consequences are not fully understood. Time pressure might change people's risk preferences, lead to less consistent choices, or change people's decision strategy. With the present work, we make the novel contribution of testing all hypotheses against each other in a unifying hierarchical Bayesian model. In two studies, participants decided repeatedly between two risky gambles either with or without high time pressure. We found a significant increase in risky choices under time pressure. With modeling, we show that time pressure decreased choice consistency but did not systematically affect people's risk preferences. In addition, the number of participants using simple, noncompensatory strategies increased slightly under time pressure. Finally, participants did not systematically choose easier gambles more often under time pressure. Thus, a reliable analysis of the effect of time pressure on preferential choice requires a model framework that allows for the distinction between the various effects time pressure can have.

Young People's Risk Perception and Experience in Connection with COVID-19

In 2020, Norwegian society was in lockdown for seven weeks due to the rapid spread of the corona virus. During this period, young people (YP) aged 13–20 years participated in a survey investigating risk perception and experiences related to COVID-19. Participants (n = 244) were recruited from a popular website for youths in Norway. YP’s experience of risk was related to their concern about spreading the virus to close loved ones. They worried about their future with regards to education and social life. They called for more information directed at young people. Being informed and trusting the information received, decreased anxiety.

Sexual risk-taking among homeless young people in Pakistan.

Homeless young people who engage in sex work are at increased risk of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections like chlamydia, gonorrhoea, syphilis and herpes. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 29 homeless young people between the ages of 16 and 25years from Rawalpindi, Pakistan, to explore how sexual practices were mediated through social and contextual conditions. Participants engaged in sex for a range of reported reasons, most commonly to generate income, but also to build intimacy and to establish intimate partnerships which could bring physical protection and social and emotional support. Although participants were aware of the sexual health risks attached to condomless sex, they engaged in it due to the social obligations of intimate partnerships, financial considerations and to better manage potentially violent situations. Instead of condoms, participants used alternate methods like withdrawal, oral sex, post-sex douching and specific sexual positions. These were not always useful, and some methods might have inadvertently increased their risk of HIV. The study findings suggest that an integrated health promotion approach that goes beyond the health sector and a singular emphasis on risk awareness may help reduce young people's risk of homelessness and sexual health risks.

The role of preferences for pro-environmental behaviour among urban middle class households in Peru

Pro-environmental behaviour (PEB) is known to reflect people's social preferences, time preferences and risk preferences. Previous research has tended to consider these in isolation, which means they may proxy for omitted ones, leading to biased estimates. Moreover, it has not considered ambiguity preferences, which for some PEBs is conceptually more relevant than risk preferences. Using a survey module from the Global Preference Survey (GPS), we investigate the role of a large range of preferences for PEB in a sample of 900 middle class households in Lima, Peru. The PEBs we consider are habitually saving energy, avoiding the use of plastics, and limiting expenditures on electricity. We find that social preferences matter mainly for saving-energy behaviour; time, risk and ambiguity preferences matter mainly for the consumption of plastics; and time and ambiguity preferences matter for expenditures on electricity. The insight that particular preferences matter for particular PEBs has important policy implications.

Effect of heterogeneous risk perception on information diffusion, behavior change, and disease transmission

Motivated by the importance of individual differences in risk perception and behavior change in people's responses to infectious disease outbreaks (particularly the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic), we propose a heterogeneous disease-behavior-information transmission model, in which people's risk of getting infected is influenced by information diffusion, behavior change, and disease transmission. We use both a mean-field approximation and Monte Carlo simulations to analyze the dynamics of the model. Information diffusion influences behavior change by allowing people to be aware of the disease and adopt self-protection and subsequently affects disease transmission by changing the actual infection rate. Results show that (a) awareness plays a central role in epidemic prevention, (b) a reasonable fraction of overreacting nodes are needed in epidemic prevention (c) the basic reproduction number R_{0} has different effects on epidemic outbreak for cases with and without asymptomatic infection, and (d) social influence on behavior change can remarkably decrease the epidemic outbreak size. This research indicates that the media and opinion leaders should not understate the transmissibility and severity of diseases to ensure that people become aware of the disease and adopt self-protection to protect themselves and the whole population.

People's Knowledge and Risk Perceptions of Invasive Plants in Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

Effective management of invasive plants conserves biodiversity values, reduces economic costs, and minimizes negative impacts on human health. Fostering people's awareness of invasive plants is one of the most cost-effective approaches in preventing the spread and introduction of invasive plants. Therefore, this study aims to understand (1) people's knowledge and risk perceptions, (2) associations between risk perceptions and demographics, and (3) people's willingness to support current management strategies in the Metro Vancouver region, British Columbia, Canada. An online survey was carried out and received 356 responses across the region. We found that people's knowledge and risk perceptions of invasive plants were ecologically oriented. Older respondents perceived higher risks of invasive plants. Among respondents of the same age, annual income higher than $50,000 was associated with higher levels of risk perception. Respondents who had professional and/or recreational group memberships perceived higher economic risks. Respondents highly supported activities that they could take part in directly, such as community invasive pulls and native species planting. Overall, our findings aid managers in allocating appropriate funding or tailoring outreach efforts to different aspects of invasive plants as well as groups/communities where people's knowledge and risk perceptions of invasive plants are low.

How does government discourse make people vulnerable?

PurposeThis paper develops a model of social vulnerability. Specifically, it aims to (1) determine the factors of social vulnerability to flood risks and (2) interrogate the discursive structure and framing of vulnerability within the local domain of disaster governance.Design/methodology/approachThis is a descriptive-survey research design mobilized through sequential exploratory mixed method.FindingsFor ordinary people, vulnerability is due to five factors: (1) government inaction, (2) age-based frailty, (3) disability-based social exclusion, (4) weak social capital and (5) material susceptibility. Moreover, there are two patterns of discursive structure surrounding the risk of flooding in Davao del Norte: (1) where Cavendish banana is a favored export commodity of those who are in power, the Pressure-and-Release Model fits within the narrative of land-use changes in the province, and (2) where the local domain of disaster governance frames the DRR as a “hero-villain” normative duality.Practical implicationsAt the policy level, the findings should inform the current government practices in development planning to mitigate flood risks, specifically the proposed Philippine National Land-use Act and the pending Bill to create the Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) Department. Operationally, the “hero-villain” finding challenges the self-awareness of disaster managers and functionaries whose technical trainings inculcated a one-size-fits-all approach to disaster response.Social implicationsThe findings support the theory that disaster and disaster risks are socially constructed realities.Originality/valueThis paper teased out the gap between the people's risks perceptions in Davao del Norte and the government's DRR episteme, and it points to power relations that impede its closing.

Risk Perception: Reflections on 40 Years of Research.

Numerous studies and practical experiences with risk have demonstrated the importance of risk perceptions for people's behavior. In this narrative review, we describe and reflect upon some of the lines of research that we feel have been important in helping us understand the factors and processes that shape people's risk perceptions. In our review, we propose that much of the research on risk perceptions to date can be grouped according to three dominant perspectives and, thus, approaches to study design; they are: the characteristics of hazards, the characteristics of risk perceivers, and the application of heuristics to inform risk judgments. In making these distinctions, we also highlight what we see as outstanding challenges for researchers and practitioners. We also highlight a few new research questions that we feel warrant attention.

The effects of lockdown on lifestyle habits of adults during the coronavirus pandemic in Cyprus

BackgroundDespite widespread adoption of lockdown by governments in the COVID-19 response, research on how it affects the individual pillars of Lifestyle Medicine is limited. We aimed to explore the effects of COVID-19 lockdown on healthy eating, physical activity, sleep, stress, social support and use of risky substances.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional study on a convenient sample of adults who resided in Cyprus during the lockdown. An anonymous questionnaire was completed online in Greek or English comprised of five validated tools in relation to their behaviours before and during the lockdown. We compared median values for each variable/tool before and during lockdown, using Wilcoxon Signed Rank test, and performed stratified analyses for sociodemographic characteristics.ResultsOut of 745 respondents, 74% were female and median age was 39. Overall scores showed significantly increased sleep quality difficulty (4 v 5, p < 0.001), decreased social support (71 v 68, p < 0.001), and increased perceived stress (22 v 25, p < 0.001) between February 2020 and the month in lockdown. Mediterranean diet adherence increased significantly only in those who followed religious fasting during lockdown (6 v 7, p < 0.001). Total minutes spent sitting significantly increased (120 v 180, p < 0.001) although overall physical activity score did not significantly change. Smoking intensity (daily number of cigarettes and e-cigarettes) as well as frequency of alcohol consumption (daily number of drinks) increased significantly (p trend=0.029 and <0.001, respectively).ConclusionsMany aspects of lifestyle were adversely affected by lockdown in Cyprus. As people return to their pre-lockdown routines, the outcomes described provide data to inform the design of lifestyle interventions that support changing or maintaining lifestyle habits. Such interventions can then help decrease people's risk for future poor health outcomes, including the risk for COVID-19 infection.Key messages This study describes aspects of lifestyle affected by the Cyprus COVID-19 lockdown, significant when considering future lockdowns and pre-, during or post-lockdown healthful lifestyle interventions.The outcomes provide data to inform the design of lifestyle interventions to support changing or maintaining healthy lifestyle habits.

Stigmatizing policies’ influence on HIV risk through their effect on internalized homonegativity and health behaviors among men who have sex with men in Europe

Abstract Background Men who have sex with men (MSM) in Europe are most affected by HIV disparities. Complex systems theory proposes that many health behaviors and risks arise from numerous cascading and interacting processes. Our aim was to explore how stigmatizing policies at the European country-level create pathways to HIV risk and disparities among MSM in Europe. Methods We used data from the 2017 European Men Who Have Sex with Men Internet Survey (EMIS-2017). The anonymous online survey recruited 126,090 European MSM. We assessed condom use with steady &amp; non-steady partners as the outcome. Condom use was categorized from zero to 10 (10 or more partners). Abuse was scored zero to three and internalized homonegativity from zero to six. We used the International Gay and Lesbian Association's Rainbow Index as the main predictor, which ranks European countries' laws and policies regarding LGBTQ+ legal protections from zero (worst) to 100 (best). We used structural equation and multi-level modeling for analyses. Results The mean Rainbow Index score was 50.8 with a range from 6 to 88. The Rainbow Index scores were the highest in Western European (mean=62.5), then Central European (mean=45.9), then Eastern Europe (mean=21.4) (p &amp;lt; 0.000). Unadjusted regression models suggested that for every one-unit improvement in the Rainbow Index the number of condomless sexual acts with steady sexual partners was reduced [β=-0.0012, 95% CI (-0.0016, -0.0009)]. The unadjusted structural equation model showed that the relationship between the Rainbow Index and condom use with steady partners was mediated by 30% because of internalized homonegativity (p &amp;lt; 0.000). Conclusions The policy context influences HIV risk, especially through the policies' effects on condom use. HIV research and prevention efforts must recognize that structural determinants can shape people's risk for HIV and that the best individual and local efforts may be undermined by structural factors such as policies.

Battling the infodemics: health communication effectiveness during COVID-19

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in many parts of the world has posed serious concerns to the public health. During this period of crisis, the World Health Organization (WHO) reminds all countries and communities that the spread of this virus can be significantly slowed or even reversed through the implementation of robust containment and control measures. The WHO has also asked the public to be careful while reading and spreading health recommendations from untrustworthy online sources of information. Myths and misbeliefs about the prevention and spread of COVID-19 not only create global panic but also pose risks to people's lives and public health in general. Rampant misinformation on the disease slows down the efforts of public health bodies to contain the outbreak. Therefore, the role of public health bodies in communicating the right message and in the right form to the public is crucial.In our study, we aim to assess the effectiveness of communication strategies used by international and national public health authorities to inform the public on COVID-19 risks and prevention. In particular, we conduct a survey experiment on a large sample (N = 4000) of adults from seven European countries to test the efficacy of public health messages in a form of prevention and corrective information provision. The study seeks to investigate how people's risk perceptions and behaviors change subject to the preventive information provision or treatment with the information countering widely spread misperceptions about the COVID-19 as compared to the control group.The findings of this research will be relevant for policymakers and public health professionals in the development of effective communication strategies during disease outbreaks.Key messages Risk perceptions towards COVID-19 and their determinants across European countries are unknown.Unclear effectiveness of public health messages in a form of prevention and corrective information provision.

The Relationship between Risk Event Involvement and Risk Perception during the COVID-19 Outbreak in China.

BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) is a worldwide pandemic that continues to spread and the situation continues to deteriorate globally. It is also a risk event for the public in affected areas. However, little is known about the relationship between “being involved/exposed in a risk event at the moment” and people’s risk perception of that event.MethodsThe mediation model and analysis of covariance method were performed on a Chinese sample (N = 351) during the outbreak of COVID‐19 to test the underlying mechanism between risk event involvement and risk perception.ResultsRisk event involvement was positively related not only to people’s event‐related risk perception but also their general risk perception (i.e. risk perception towards other events), and negative emotion mediated these relationships. In addition, the residents of Wuhan (vs. non‐Wuhan) exhibited significantly higher event‐related risk perception as well as general risk perception.ConclusionsThe findings deepen our understanding of risk perception by suggesting that being involved in a risk event at the moment is also a nonnegligible variable positively related to risk perception through increased negative emotion. Finally, theoretical and managerial implications of the result are discussed.

Investigating the psychometric properties of the Carers' Fall Concern instrument to measure carers' concern for older people at risk of falling at home: A cross-sectional study.

This study aimed to investigate the psychometric properties of the Carers' Fall Concern Instrument (CFC-I) for measuring carers' concern for older people (care recipients) at risk of falling. Family carers are crucial in preventing older people from falling at home. Their concerns for older people at risk of falling have severe implications on carers' psychological well-being and ability to prevent falls. However, there is no validated instrument measuring this concern. A cross-sectional study was used to examine the validity and reliability of the CFC-I. Carers looking after older people living at home completed the 17-item CFC-I and provided information about their care arrangements and the older people's fall history. Construct validity was tested using exploratory factor analysis and hypothesis testing. Internal consistency was determined by calculating Cronbach's alpha coefficient. 143 carers completed the survey either by face-to-face or by online. After deleting one item with an item-total correlation of below 0.3, the remaining 16-item CFC-I reported a Cronbach alpha of 0.93. Construct validity was supported by strong item-total correlations (0.51-0.76), mean inter-item correlations (0.47) and factor loadings (0.557-0.809). Factor analysis revealed three factors that include concerns about care recipients' health and function, living environment and carers' perception of fall and fall risk. The 16-item CFC-I can discriminate between carers of older people with and without recurrent (fallen 3/ more times) falls. The 16-item CFC-I is a valid and reliable scale for measuring carers' concern for the older people's risk of falling. Future analysis of test-retest and inter-rater reliability of the instrument will further support its clinical use for carers. The newly developed multi-item CFC-I can be used to quantify the carers' level of fall concern and inform targeted interventions for carers when caring for older people who are at risk of falling.

Risk Overgeneralization in Times of a Contagious Disease Threat.

People’s assessment of risks is swayed by their current feelings. COVID-19 invokes powerful feelings because it is (i) a salient, enormous threat, (ii) unfamiliar, and (iii) intertwined with xenophobia. These three factors are known to exert predictable influence on people’s risk overgeneralization, policy preference, and sociopolitical attitudes. We provide a succinct, illustrative review of empirical work on these dynamics in times of a disease outbreak (e.g., the 2009 H1N1 swine flu, the 2014 Ebola). Theoretical and applied implications for the present COVID-19 pandemic include the value of salience in motivating public opinion change, the importance of reducing unfamiliarity for curbing risk-averse tendencies, and the need for policies that guard against xenophobia-driven racism in collaborative efforts.

Patterns of elderly people's long-term care risks and determinants: A methodological study in a Japanese city.

Existing analysis methods about the relationships between the long-term care (LTC) risks and determinants of the elderly often experience issues of independence, linearity and homogeneity. Such methodological issues are particularly problematic when the relationships are complicated, making the prioritization of LTC interventions to groups with different care needs difficult. To overcome these shortcomings, this study made an initial attempt to identify representative patterns of elderly people's LTC risks associated with different determinants, from a methodological perspective. A data mining approach (Exhaustive CHAID) is applied to data collected from 26 357 elderly people in a Japanese city in 2016. It can automatically segment the samples into a tree structure that accommodates nonlinear, heterogeneous and sequential relationships, without caring about issues of independence across determinants. In total, 16 representative patterns are derived, among which four patterns are considerably riskier (the unhealthy percentage >10.0%), and five are moderately riskier (the unhealthy percentage is 5.0%-10.0%). Age is the most important determinant, followed by locomotor function, cognitive function, homebound, gender and residential location, in that order, which all show heterogeneous associations with the risk patterns. The Exhaustive CHAID is suitable to derive scientifically-sound insights into an early screening of risk factors for pre-frail groups and tailor-made preventive LTC interventions for frail groups in a flexible and objective way. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2020; 20: 674-679.

Carers' concern for older people falling at home: an integrative review.

Falls, the leading cause of injury and death among older people, can have a significant psychosocial impact on carers. Carers play a crucial role in caring for older persons at home and in fall prevention. This review, which included 15 studies, aimed to identify carers' concern about older people falling and its impact. We identified that most carers had concerns about repeated falls in older people, unknown consequences of falls and care recipients' non-adherence to fall prevention advice. These concerns, in turn, affect carers' physical and psychological health, lifestyle, caregiving burden and use of fall prevention strategies. This paper highlights the importance of recognising carers' fall concern so as to identify carers' needs and awareness of fall prevention in older people living at home. Greater insight into carers' fall concern could facilitate the implementation of new strategies to manage older people's fall risk as well as improve carers' well-being.

Being "good" or "good enough": Prosocial risk and the structure of moral self-regard.

The motivation to feel moral powerfully guides people's prosocial behavior. We propose that people's efforts to preserve their moral self-regard conform to a moral threshold model. This model predicts that people are primarily concerned with whether their prosocial behavior legitimates the claim that they have acted morally, a claim that often diverges from whether their behavior is in the best interests of the recipient. Specifically, it predicts that for people to feel moral following a prosocial decision, that decision need not have promised the greatest benefit for the recipient but only one larger than at least one other available outcome. Moreover, this model predicts that once people produce a benefit that exceeds this threshold, their moral self-regard is relatively insensitive to the magnitude of benefit that they produce. In 6 studies, we test this moral threshold model by examining people's prosocial risk decisions. We find that, compared with risky egoistic decisions, people systematically avoid making risky prosocial decisions that carry the possibility of producing the worst possible outcome in a choice set-even when this means avoiding a decision that is objectively superior. We further find that this aversion to producing the worst possible prosocial outcome leads people's prosocial (vs. egoistic) risk decisions to be less sensitive to those decisions' maximum possible benefit. We highlight theoretical and practical implications of these findings, including the detrimental consequence that people's desire to protect their moral self-regard can have on the amount of good that they produce. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).