Welfare Reform Research Articles

Crowding out or crowding in? The interaction between public pensions and private transfers in China

ABSTRACT Public pensions and intergenerational family support are among the most important and well-researched income sources for older individuals in many societies. However, the interactions between them have received less attention. A few exceptions discuss if public transfers ‘crowd out’ private transfers. Yet, these studies in developed welfare states are considered misplaced due to their ‘fait accompli’ support arrangements. Furthermore, the cultural and symbolic value of support is often overlooked in these debates. Focusing on the case of China, where family support is institutionalized and public pension coverage is expanding, this study aims to contribute to the ‘crowding-out’ debates by examining intergenerational family transfers following the recent public pension reforms. Based on Heckman two-step regression analyses of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011–2015), the study shows that the ‘crowding-out’ and ‘crowding-in’ effects of public pensions co-exist. The long-established employee pension schemes reduced child-to-parent transfers, but increased parent-to-child transfers. More importantly, access to the new resident pensions, rather than displacing family support, has in effect ‘crowded in’ more child-to-parent transfers. These findings provide new insights into the dynamics between working-age and older generations, as well as between the state and family concerning their roles in welfare provision.

Building deservingness and fairness with discourse: how states construct the social legitimacy of pension schemes

ABSTRACT How do modern states legitimize and frame their redistributive social policies in promoting policy changes to the public? This article studies pension reform in China, using quantitative text analysis of articles from official newspapers to investigate the state’s efforts in framing and crafting the social legitimacy – particularly deservingness and fairness – of its then-new pension schemes from 1978 to 2008. The results demonstrate that the state made efforts to reconstruct social knowledge on fairness and deservingness in pension reforms through both the social values and individual subjectivities. The state’s strategies for reconstructing public expectations for pension benefit redistribution and welfare responsibility allocation differ for retrenchment and expansive reforms, even though these strategies both target recrafting and reframing the principles of reciprocity based on ‘contribution and rewards’ and ‘rights and obligations’. The state also builds images of deserving and undeserving social groups by blurring the distinction between merit and equity and ultimately reshaping individual subjectivity as a self-regulated and self-motivated ‘socialized self’.

Factor analysis of changes in labor force parameters

Subject. This article examines changes in the parameters of the economically active population that meet the needs of the dynamic growth of the domestic economy and its international competitiveness. Objectives. The article aims to analyze and assess the factors of change in the number of economically active population of Russia and make a forecast for the period up to 2036. Methods. For the study, we used statistical and factor analyses, and a competitive edge approach. Results. Based on the consideration of the cause-and-effect relationships between economic development and population growth, quantitative and qualitative parameters of the labor force, as well as the prerequisites and factors of their change, the article presents a forecast of the dynamics of the economically active population, taking into account the reduction in natural growth and aging of the population, the impact of pension reform and other factors, and an assessment of the potential for increasing the labor force due to the inclusion of new territories in Russia. Conclusions. Demographic problems, exacerbated by the military confrontation and systemic conflict with the countries of the collective West, significantly limit the possibilities of economic growth in Russia. However, the territorial and pension effects in the medium term make it possible to compensate for this negative impact.

“My Identity is as a Professional Leader”; The Practice of Leadership of Child Welfare Managers in Norway

ABSTRACT This article explores how leadership in child welfare is practised in a context with co-existing institutional logic. The article is based on a qualitative design using document analyses and semi-structured interviews. The document analysis is based on seven documents and interviews with 20 child welfare managers (CWM). The data indicate that CWMs practice leadership in line with professional logic, and let professional logic be decisive for managerial assessments. They relate to the managerial logic governing national expectations, but only when necessary. The managerial logic is strengthened in the ongoing child welfare reform in Norway. The CWMs’ leadership practice does not seem to contribute to the expected professionalisation of leadership because of a gap between the local context, where the professional work takes place, and the national context, where expectations appear. We contribute to the child welfare management literature by providing insights and knowledge about how CWMs relate to and respond to co-existing institutional logic because of reforms. We also contribute to the institutional logic literature by identifying how CWMs respond to the strengthening of managerial logic through reforms. A practical implication of this study is to provide insights and knowledge for policymakers and other actors in close contact with child welfare services.

A Bayesian Interrupted Time Series framework for evaluating policy change on mental well-being: An application to England’s welfare reform

Factors contributing to social inequalities are associated with negative mental health outcomes and disparities in mental well-being. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical controlled interrupted time series to evaluate the impact of policies on population well-being whilst accounting for spatial and temporal patterns. Using data from the UKs Household Longitudinal Study, we apply this framework to evaluate the impact of the UKs welfare reform implemented in the 2010s on the mental health of the participants, measured using the GHQ-12 index. Our findings indicate that the reform led to a 2.36% (95% CrI: 0.57%–4.37%) increase in the national GHQ-12 index in the exposed group, after adjustment for the control group. Moreover, the geographical areas that experienced the largest increase in the GHQ-12 index are from more disadvantage backgrounds than affluent backgrounds.

Rural Unions and Brazil’s Turn to the Right:

We analyzed the impacts of the regime change in post-2016 Brazil on patterns of activism, based on the case of the oldest confederation of rural workers in the country. Since the end of the 1990s, the National Confederation of Male and Female Family Farmers (Contag) has concentrated its efforts on demanding public policies for family farming, with the participation of farmers in policy formulation. Using two analytical tools (the differentiation between public and semi-public actions and the modes of gathering), we discussed three moments: the impeachment of Rousseff in 2016, the pension reform between 2016 and 2019, and the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020. We saw the removal of the Federal government as an interlocutor, efforts to avoid the dismantling of policies, and the return of democracy as a disputed issue.

საპენსიო სისტემის რეფორმის აქტუალურობა საქართველოში

Georgia urgently needs pension reform. The disadvantage of the existing pension model was its pressure on the state budget. At the same time, the resent demographical changes, the increase in the life expectancy of pensioners, active aging in the demographic sector, the tendency of the labor force to decrease, the introduction of universal health insurance and other factors have had a significant impact on the country's economy and have highlighted new challenges that have put the sustainability of the state pension system at risk. The discussion of the need of the pension system reform in Georgia has become more and more active in recent years. It should be emphasized that within the expenditure allocation of the state budget, the largest proportion is attributed to social expenditures, with the state pension system claiming the most significant share. The pension scheme operating in Georgia does not guarantee a sufficient standard of living, it provides only a basic income, and that is why the government has prioritized the need of pension reform on the agenda so that the system responds more to the needs of aging populations and ensures their honorable old age as much as possible.

Pension Reform Policy in Latin America: A Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis

Latin American countries have been at the forefront of pension privatization and since 2008 they have also pioneered reform reversals. Previous studies have focused on single cases or a small number of them, given that pension reform is a complex phenomenon arising from the combination of different causes. Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), the article analyzes a set of 32 pension reform cases in eight countries from the early 1990s until 2021. It finds four different pathways that combine institutional, structural and policy legacy conditions. It demonstrates that fsQCA is a useful tool for broader comparative policy work.

Pensions as an Engine of Growth. An Approach to the Spanish Case, Based on the Sraffian Supermultiplier

ABSTRACT In this paper, following Cesaratto's lead (Cesaratto, [2005]. Pension Reform and Economic Theory: A Non-Orthodox Analysis. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, especially chapters 6-8), we measure the impact of pensioners' spending on output and employment in the Spanish economy in 2021 by means of the Sraffian supermultiplier, taking pensioners' expenditure as a component of autonomous demand. To do so, we follow another lead, from Dejuán (Dejuan, [2023]. The Supermultiplier. A Cornerstone of the New Macroeconomics. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, chapter 10), who suggests using the Leontief inverse of an extended SAM (social accounting matrix) that also includes both induced consumption and expansionary investment as a multisectoral supermultiplier, or multiplier-accelerator. The weight of PAYG pensions to people aged 65 or older in 2021 is 8 per cent of GDP, and their expenditure ‘puts in motion’ 6,7 per cent of total production and total employment (directly, indirectly, and hyper-indirect or induced). The government recovers 42 cents in taxes for each euro spent on pensions. Pensions in 2050 are sustainable, either raising taxes on profits or if exports grow pari passu with pensions at a rate below historical records.

Framing Policy Reform in Europe. A Comparative Study of Frame Variation Across Countries, Newspapers, and Time

ABSTRACT Politicians must navigate the complexities of social policy reform to ensure sustainable fiscal policies while considering their impact on citizens. News media play a crucial role as a source of political information, influencing public attitudes towards policy changes through selective framing of issues. This study focuses on how European news media frame the controversial policy reform of raising the retirement age, and explores factors that potentially explain variations in framing across contexts. Using a manual content analysis of newspapers in Denmark, Spain, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom over the period 2011–2020 (n = 1059 articles), we examine country-, newspaper-, and time-related factors to explain the relative presence of issue-specific diagnostic and prognostic frames in European news coverage of pension reform. While the results show that all three types of factors determine the coverage of the reform measure to some extent, in particular variations across newspapers and over time are prevalent. The most striking differences are that left-leaning newspapers emphasize frames related to inequality, and that over time, framing crystallizes into a more concentrated set of diagnostic and prognostic frames. This article sheds light on European news coverage of a much-debated policy issue and its contextual dependency.

Legal Safeguards and Effectiveness Evaluation of Family Pension Support Policies in China and Japan

As the aging process in China accelerates, the challenges facing pension policies are increasingly prominent, becoming a focal point of societal attention. Japan's legal framework and implementation of family pension support policies are relatively well-established, while China still has significant room for improvement in legal safeguards and practical implementation. Learning from Japan’s relevant policies could reduce the costs associated with the reform of China's pension system. This paper compares family pension-related policies in China and Japan, providing suggestions and summarizing them based on actual circumstances, aiming to further improve relevant laws and regulations and enhance the support and effectiveness of family pension systems.

Informal and formal long-term care utilization and unmet needs in Europe: examining socioeconomic disparities and the role of social policies for older adults.

The rising number of older adults with limitations in their daily activities has major implications for the demands placed on long-term care (LTC) systems across Europe. Recognizing that demand can be both constrained and encouraged by individual and country-specific factors, this study explains the uptake of home-based long-term care in 18 European countries with LTC policies and pension generosity along with individual factors such as socioeconomic status. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe conducted in 2019, we apply a two-part multilevel model to assess if disparities in use of LTC are driven by disparities in needs or disparities in use of care when in need. While individual characteristics largely affect the use of care through its association with disparities in need, country-level characteristics are important for the use of care when in need. In particular, the better health of wealthier and more educated individuals makes them less likely to use any type of home-based personal care. At the country level, results show that the absence of a means-tested benefit scheme and the availability of cash-for-care benefits (as opposed to in-kind) are strongly associated with the use of formal care, whether it is mixed (with informal care) or exclusive. LTC policies are, however, shown to be insufficient to significantly reduce unmet needs for personal care. Conversely, generous pensions are significantly associated with lower unmet needs, underscoring the importance of considering the likely adverse effects of future pension reforms.

If it is adequate, it is not affordable: stakeholder perceptions on opportunities and constraints for pension reform in Indonesia

PurposeThe purpose of the study is to emphasise the urgent need for pension policy reform within Indonesia’s social security system.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology employed in this research includes qualitative techniques such as in-depth interviews and thematic content analysis.FindingsThe findings suggest various measures for pension reform, including revising eligibility criteria, adjusting benefit designs to cover housing and transportation costs, promoting Defined Benefit Plans, enforcing compliance, addressing insufficient contributions, advocating for transparency, and aligning social assistance programs with pension system enhancements. However, there is a trade-off between the adequacy of pension benefits and the amount of resources required.Research limitations/implicationsThis study is limited by the need for more individuals knowledgeable about pension issues in Indonesia, primarily due to their high-ranking positions, making access challenging and potentially compromising the small sample size in research.Practical implicationsThe research underscores the importance of maintaining policy consistency. It proposes a gradual increase in pension contributions as a pivotal strategy to ensure sustained financial security for retirees, particularly in the face of fiscal constraints. Also, the government should undertake comprehensive reforms, encompassing the revision of eligibility criteria, adjustment of minimum benefit designs, encouragement of employer contributions and effective management of compliance issues.Social implicationsSocial implications emphasise the importance of enhancing the financial security of retirees within Indonesia’s ageing population.Originality/valueThe originality and value of the research lie in guiding pension reform from the viewpoint of key policymakers involved in Indonesia’s pension system.

Exploring the Impact of Adjusting the Basic Pension on Lower-Income Groups in the German Pension System

Abstract This article explores the impact of adjustments to the basic pension (Grundrente) on lower income groups in the German pension system. This is done by hypothesizing that the basic pension reform is weakening status maintenance in the German welfare state for lower-income groups. We analyse monetary gains from the basic pension across different groups. We then adjust the eligibility criteria for the basic pension regarding the length of contribution periods and earning points threshold. From these findings, the paper develops a systematization for what needs to be considered in future pension reforms if the equivalence principle for lower-income groups is to be weakened.

Educational Expansion as a Driver of Longer Working Lives?

This study investigates the contribution of educational expansion to changes in labour force participation among Europeans aged 55-74 between 2000 and 2019, while accounting for changes in educational inequalities in labour market activity. We use data from the European Union Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS) for 26 countries and Kitagawa-Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition methods to analyse the extent to which changes in the education structure may account for rises in labour force participation rates among older workers in these countries, and the degree to which returns to education have changed. Overall, we found that educational expansion is positively associated with increases in labour force participation, albeit with substantial cross-country variation in the scale of this association. A driving factor was the decrease in the share of the population with low education levels, followed by an increase in the share of those with high education levels. While activity rates rose in most countries and among all levels of education, the largest increases were observed among people with a medium level of education. Activity rates of low-educated older workers, especially women, grew at a substantially lower pace in some countries, exacerbating educational inequalities in labour force participation at older ages. The study suggests that educational expansion has been a driver of longer working lives in Europe. However, it also indicates that changes in health, working conditions and age norms at the microlevel, as well as pension and labour market reforms at the macrolevel, can be assumed to have played a dominant role in countries where increases in labour force participation were the most significant.

Older Carers and Social Division of Welfare in China

This study used the social division of welfare approach to analyze how Chinese older carers have access unequally to pensions, medical insurance, and public assistance schemes. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 40 older carers aged 60 years or above who were taking care of their family members with disabilities or chronic illnesses. The amount of pension and coverage of medical insurance of these respondents and their care recipients was affected by their employment, types of employers, and living locations. Moreover, the older carers’ capacity to address financial and medical burdens was associated with the available support from their family members, especially their adult children. This paper concludes that the social division of welfare amongst older carers was driven by China’s market-oriented pension and medical insurance reforms, decentralization of welfare provisions, and the welfare capacity of families. Future studies can examine the social division of welfare among young and minority ethnic carers and adopt a comparative approach to analyze factors shaping unequal access to welfare benefits among older carers in different countries.

Contributory Pension Scheme and Performance of Employee of Unity Schools in South East Nigeria (2005-2019)

This paper critically examines the implementation of the contributory pension scheme in Unity Schools in the south east of Nigeria. The specific objectives were: to determine the extent of implementation of the contributory pension scheme; how it has helped in motivating staff and the challenges confronting the implementation of the scheme in Unity Schools in the South East. Population of the study was 1,091 based on the nominal rolls of the five schools in Enugu and Anambra States. The Sample Size of 293 was determined using the Taro Yamane’s statistical formula of 1964. Three hypotheses were formulated and tested using t-test statistics. Findings of the study revealed that: Contributory Pension Scheme has been fully implemented in Unity Schools; Contributory Pension Scheme has no significant effect on the motivation of workers for efficiency in the discharge of their duties and that Federal Government inconsistency in prompt remittance of its share of the contributions and it’s borrowing from the fund for infrastructural development among others constitute challenges to the implementation of the scheme. Based on the findings, the study recommended that: the Pension Reform Act be further amended to include the payment of gratuity; increase employers contributions from ten percent (10%) to fifteen percent (l5%), and the removal of the 16years limit on pension. The Contributory Pension Scheme is a welcome idea which when properly implemented will eradicate the pensioners’ harsh lives thereby making their dream a reality.

Welfare at the Statehouse Democracies: Assessing the Impact of Public Opinion on Welfare Policies at the State Level

A frequent question in discussions about democracy is whether input from the public is ever considered and to what extent by politicians. This influence of public opinion on the realm of welfare policies has not been extensively explored, and most analyses are less precise for being conducted before the passage of the national welfare reform in 1996, better known as the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA). Bringing the analysis to a period after the reform to account for contextual changes since its passage, this study uses the multilevel and poststratification (MRP) model considered superior in analysis of subnational opinion using national survey data to assess the influence of public opinion on welfare policies at the state level. Collecting data from the 2014 CCES and a new developed welfare generosity index, I find that public opinion does not have any influence on how generous welfare programs turn out in their states, unless it is interacted with state government ideology. It seems that the ideology of the state government and the state poverty rate are the major determinants on welfare policies outcomes in the states, although the latter had different effects for TANF and SNAP.

Pension reform and wealth inequality: Theory and evidence

A growing literature explores reasons for rising wealth inequality, but is mostly silent on the role of pension systems despite their well-understood influence on life-cycle savings. This paper develops a simple life-cycle model to lay bare the primary theoretical mechanisms connecting pension systems, asset accumulation, and the wealth distribution. Mandated fully-funded plans transform individuals with lower incomes, often characterized as low savers, into asset owners, and may also imply a more equal wealth distribution than pay-as-you-go-based systems. To test the empirical validity of these predictions, the paper explores a pension reform in Denmark, a country that witnessed declining wealth inequality over the last decades. In a calibrated life-cycle model employing unique register data, the Danish pension reform emerges as a key factor explaining the downward trend in wealth inequality.

Labour market trajectories and unemployment of older workers in Europe after the Great Recession

AbstractMany European countries want to overcome the early exit from labour market which was widespread since the 1970s through pension reform and labour policies. The extension of working life is hindered by factors that the literature overlooks. This article focuses on the discontinuity of the late‐career caused by unemployment. The aim is to investigate whether older workers are at risk of unemployment and what are the transitions after spells of unemployment. The labour market trajectories of workers over 50s in 11 European countries from 2006 to 2019 were analysed, specifically after the Great Recession and before the Covid‐19 epidemic. It is based on longitudinal survey data from the generated Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe Job Episodes Panel. Event history analysis and sequence analysis were performed. Older employees are unlikely to face unemployment. The transition rate highlights the difficulty for older workers into re‐employment. A low education level increases the risk of unemployment and remaining unemployed. Data by country confirm the trend towards overcoming the transition from unemployment to early exit. Divergences concern the higher risk of being trapped in unemployment in Southern European countries such as Greece and Italy.