Pension Plan Members Research Articles

Optimal pension fund composition for an Italian private pension plan sponsor

We address the problem of a private pension plan sponsor who has to find the best pension funds for its members. Starting from a descriptive analysis of the pension plan members we identify a set of representative subscribers. Then, the optimal allocation for each representative will become a pension fund of the pension plan. For each representative, we propose a multistage stochastic program (MSP) which includes a multi-criteria objective function. The optimal choice is the portfolio allocation that minimizes the average value at risk deviation of the final wealth and satisfies a wealth target in the final stage and other constraints regarding pension plan regulations. Stochasticity arises from the investor’s salary process and from asset returns. Numerical results show the optimal dynamic portfolios with respect to the investor’s preferences and then the best pension funds the sponsor might offer.

Equilibrium Investment Strategy for DC Pension Plan with Inflation and Stochastic Income under Heston’s SV Model

We consider a portfolio selection problem for a defined contribution (DC) pension plan under the mean-variance criteria. We take into account the inflation risk and assume that the salary income process of the pension plan member is stochastic. Furthermore, the financial market consists of a risk-free asset, an inflation-linked bond, and a risky asset with Heston’s stochastic volatility (SV). Under the framework of game theory, we derive two extended Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations systems and give the corresponding verification theorems in both the periods of accumulation and distribution of the DC pension plan. The explicit expressions of the equilibrium investment strategies, corresponding equilibrium value functions, and the efficient frontiers are also obtained. Finally, some numerical simulations and sensitivity analysis are presented to verify our theoretical results.

Modeling longevity risk transfers as Nash bargaining problems: Methodology and insights

The problem of longevity risk has recently received considerable attention. In this paper, we apply economic modeling methods to longevity risk securitization, which is now regarded by pension and insurance industries as a solution to the problem. Specifically, we model the trade of a longevity security as a two-player bargaining game, and use Nash's bargaining solution to determine the outcome of it. Our work not only offers an alternative method for pricing longevity securities, but also reveals several properties about the market for longevity securities. First, a trade would occur if the longevity security is an effective hedging instrument, and the trade would benefit all agents involved. Second, a trade of longevity risk can reduce pension plans' bankruptcy risk, safeguarding the financial security of pension plan members. Finally, compared to the competitive equilibrium, Nash's bargaining solution yields higher trading prices. Therefore, as the market becomes more competitive, pension plans may hedge longevity risk at a lower cost.

MANAGING FINANCIALLY DISTRESSED PENSION PLANSINTHE INTERESTOF BENEFICIARIES

AbstractThe beneficiaries of a corporate defined benefit pension plan in financial distress care about the security of their promised pensions. We propose to value the pension obligations of a corporate defined benefit plan using a discount rate that reflects the funding ability of the pension plan and its sponsoring company, and therefore depends, in part, on the chosen asset allocation. An optimal valuation is determined by a strategic asset allocation that is optimal given the risk premium a representative pension plan member demands for being exposed to funding risk. We provide an empirical application using the General Motors pension plan.

Annuitization and Retirement Timing Decisions

This paper analyzes retirement timing decisions of DC pension plan members. In a first step, a model of optimal retirement timing decisions is proposed which incorporates the optimal time to annuitize the DC pension wealth. An individual obtains utility from leisure, labor income before retirement and pension benefits after retirement. These benefits include the income from an annuity which is bought at an optimal time. The optimal annuitization time depends on current and future expected financial market performance. Based on the model, a forward looking retirement likelihood measure is derived, which describes the probability that an individual retires within the next few years. In a second step, the retirement likelihood measure is used to predict transitions into retirement which took place between the first and second wave of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). It turns out that the retirement likelihood measure has strong predictive power for actual retirement timing decisions. More precisely, for various groups of individuals the correlation between model predictions and actual retirement outcomes reaches 94% and the root mean square error can be as low as 5%.

OPTIMAL INVESTMENT FOR A DEFINED-CONTRIBUTION PENSION SCHEME UNDER A REGIME SWITCHING MODEL

AbstractWe study an asset allocation problem for a defined-contribution (DC) pension scheme in its accumulation phase. We assume that the amount contributed to the pension fund by a pension plan member is coupled with the salary income which fluctuates randomly over time and contains both a hedgeable and non-hedgeable risk component. We consider an economy in which macroeconomic risks are existent. We assume that the economy can be in one ofIstates (regimes) and switches randomly between those states. The state of the economy affects the dynamics of the tradeable risky asset and the contribution process (the salary income of a pension plan member). To model the switching behavior of the economy we use a counting process with stochastic intensities. We find the investment strategy which maximizes the expected exponential utility of the discounted excess wealth over a target payment, e.g. a target lifetime annuity.

Stochastic Funding of a Defined Contribution Pension Plan with Proportional Administrative Costs and Taxation under Mean-Variance Optimization Approach

This paper aim at studying a mean-variance portfolio selection problem with stochastic salary, proportional administrative costs and taxation in the accumulation phase of a defined contribution (DC) pension scheme. The fund process is subjected to taxation while the contribution of the pension plan member (PPM) is tax exempt. It is assumed that the flow of contributions of a PPM are invested into a market that is characterized by a cash account and a stock. The optimal portfolio processes and expected wealth for the PPM are established. The efficient and parabolic frontiers of a PPM portfolios in mean-variance are obtained. It was found that capital market line can be attained when initial fund and the contribution rate are zero. It was also found that the optimal portfolio process involved an inter-temporal hedging term that will offset any shocks to the stochastic salary of the PPM.

Optimal Investment for a Defined-Contribution Pension Scheme Under a Regime Switching Model

We study an asset allocation problem for a defined-contribution (DC) pension scheme in its accumulation phase. We assume that the amount contributed to the pension fund by a pension plan member is coupled with the salary income which fluctuates randomly over time and contains both a tradable and non-tradable risk component. Most importantly, we consider an economy in which macroeconomic risks are existent. We assume that the economy can be in one of I states (regimes) and switches randomly between those states. The state of the economy affects the dynamics of the tradeable risky asset and the contribution process (the salary income of a pension plan member). To model the switching behavior for the states of the economy we use a counting process with stochastic intensities. We find the investment strategy which maximizes the expected exponential utility of the discounted excess wealth over a target payment, e.g. a target lifetime annuity.

The Tontine: An Improvement on the Conventional Annuity?

This article examines the relative merits of a tontine, or pooled-survival fund (“PSF”), as a way of providing longevity insurance, compared with conventional instruments like a life annuity. The current economic, financial, and regulatory environments in much of the industrialized world have increased this long-forgotten instrument’s attractiveness. The article advances the case that a PSF, the modern version of a tontine, can provide a superior combination of longevity insurance and income compared with traditional solutions and annuities in particular. Given the scale and robust legislative, governance, and operational framework of the defined contribution pension systems in many countries around the world (and Australia’s superannuation system in particular), the PSF could be readily integrated into the existing pension system. The result will be a superior benefit for pension plan members that does not strain the regulatory framework. <b>TOPICS:</b>Retirement, pension funds, legal/regulatory/public policy

Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection Problem with Stochastic Salary for a Defined Contribution Pension Scheme: A Stochastic Linear-Quadratic-Exponential Framework

This paper examines a mean-variance portfolio selection problem with stochastic salary and inflation protection strategy in the accumulation phase of a defined contribution (DC) pension plan. The utility function is assumed to be quadratic. It was assumed that the flow of contributions made by the PPM are invested into a market that is characterized by a cash account, an inflation-linked bond and a stock. In this paper, inflationlinked bond is traded and used to hedge inflation risks associated with the investment. The aim of this paper is to maximize the expected final wealth and minimize its variance. Efficient frontier for the three classes of assets (under quadratic utility function) that will enable pension plan members (PPMs) to decide their own wealth and risk in their investment profile at retirement was obtained.

Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection Problem with Stochastic Salary for a Defined Contribution Pension Scheme: A Stochastic Linear-Quadratic-Exponential Framework

This paper examines a mean-variance portfolio selection problem with stochastic salary and inflation protection strategy in the accumulation phase of a defined contribution (DC) pension plan. The utility function is assumed to be quadratic. It was assumed that the flow of contributions made by the PPM are invested into a market that is characterized by a cash account, an inflation-linked bond and a stock. In this paper, inflationlinked bond is traded and used to hedge inflation risks associated with the investment. The aim of this paper is to maximize the expected final wealth and minimize its variance. Efficient frontier for the three classes of assets (under quadratic utility function) that will enable pension plan members (PPMs) to decide their own wealth and risk in their investment profile at retirement was obtained.

Pension Benefit Insurance and Pension Plan Portfolio Choice

Pension bene…t guarantee policies have been introduced in several countries to protect private pension plan members from the loss of income that would occur if a plan was underfunded when the sponsoring …rm terminates a plan. Most of these public insurance schemes face …nancial di¢ culty and consequently policy reforms are being discussed or implemented. Economic theory suggests that such schemes will face moral hazard and adverse selection problems. In this note we test a speci…c theoretical predic

Optimal Variational Portfolios with Inflation Protection Strategy and Efficient Frontier of Expected Value of Wealth for a Defined Contributory Pension Scheme

This paper examines optimal variational Merton portfolios (OVMP) with inflation protection strategy for a defined contribution (DC) Pension scheme. The mean and variance of the expected value of wealth for a pension plan member (PPM) are also considered in this paper. The financial market is composed of a cash account, inflation-linked bond and stock. The effective salary of the plan member is assumed to be stochastic. It was assumed that the growth rate of PPM’s salary depends on some macroeconomic factors over time. The present value of PPM’s future contribution was obtained. The sensitivity analysis of the present value of the contribution was established. The OVMP processes with inter-temporal hedging terms and inflation protection that offset any shocks to the stochastic salary of a PPM were established. The expected values of PPM’s terminal wealth, variance and efficient frontier of the three classes of assets are obtained. The efficient frontier was found to be nonlinear and parabolic in shape. In this paper, we allow the stock price to be correlated to inflation risk index, and the effective salary of the PPM is correlated to inflation and stock risks. This will enable PPMs to determine extents of the stock market returns and risks, which can influence their contributions to the scheme.

Target-driven investing: Optimal investment strategies in defined contribution pension plans under loss aversion

Assuming the loss aversion framework of Tversky and Kahneman (1992), stochastic investment and labour income processes, and a path-dependent fund target, we show that the optimal investment strategy for defined contribution pension plan members is a target-driven ‘threshold’ strategy, whereby the equity allocation is increased if the accumulating fund is below target and is decreased if it is above. However, if the fund is sufficiently above target, the optimal investment strategy switches to ‘portfolio insurance’. We show that the risk of failing to attain the target replacement ratio is significantly lower with target-driven strategies than with those associated with the maximisation of expected utility.

Pension Coverage, Retirement Status, and Earnings Replacement Rates Among a Cohort of Canadian Seniors

Data from the Longitudinal Administrative Data (LAD) base are used to compare the retirement status and earnings replacement rates achieved by individuals who were, and individuals who were not, Registered Pension Plan members in 1991 and/or 1992, when they were in their mid-fifties. Among men in this cohort, the likelihood of being retired at age 70 to 72 was about 4 to 14 percentage points higher among pension plan members than non-members. Data used for the study do not provide information on why RPP non-members tend to retire later than do members. Among retired individuals, earnings replacement rates did not differ significantly between RPP members and non-members.

Variational Form of Classical Portfolio Strategy and Expected Wealth for a Defined Contributory

This paper examines the variational form of classical portfolio strategy and expected terminal wealth for a Pension Plan Member (PPM) in a Defined Contribution (DC) Pension scheme. The flows of contributions made by PPM are invested into a market that is characterized by a cash account and a stock. It was assumed that the growth rate of salary of PPM is a linear function of time. The present value of PPM’s future contribution process was obtained. The optimal portfolio processes with inter-temporal hedging terms that offset any shocks to the stochastic cash inflows were established. The expected value of PPM’s terminal wealth was obtained.

Target-Driven Investing: Optimal Investment Strategies in Defined Contribution Pension Plans Under Loss Aversion

Assuming loss aversion, stochastic investment and labour income processes, and a path-dependent target fund, we show that the optimal investment strategy for defined contribution pension plan members is a target-driven 'threshold' strategy. With this strategy, the equity allocation is increased if the accumulating fund is below target and decreased if it is above. However, if the fund is sufficiently above target, the optimal investment strategy switches discretely to 'portfolio insurance'. We show that under loss aversion, the risk of failing to attain the target replacement ratio is significantly reduced compared with target-driven strategies derived from maximising expected utility.

Does Literacy Really Foster Pension Fund Participation? Some Evidence from a Survey of Italian Employees

As a result of the 2005 reform, pension fund participation in Italy has increased significantly but less than expected moving from 14 up to 24 per cent of the employed workforce. Among others, the lack of financial skills as well as of the knowledge on how public pension system really works might have played a significant role in discouraging potential members. This paper aims at examining whether financial and Social Security literacy do matter in the decision to adhere to a pension fund. Data from a COVIP survey of private sector employees show that people have low financial and Social Security literacy and on average pension plan members have slightly higher literacy than non members. A multivariate analysis offers evidence of a potentially stronger effect of Social Security literacy vis a vis financial literacy on the decision to adhere to pension funds as well as of the importance of country-specific structural issues. These findings may be useful for designing information and awareness campaigns aimed at increasing pension fund participation.

How can defined contribution pension plans benefit from momentum and mean reversion?

In this paper, we assess whether the stock market downturn can be an opportunity for Defined Contribution pension plan members to reinforce their risky assets exposure? In line with the framework developed by Kojein et al. (Manag Sci 55(7):1199–1213, 2009), we consider a DC plan investor, during the accumulation phase, whose aim is to maximize his terminal wealth. Within a continuous portfolio choice model, in which stock returns exhibit both momentum and mean reversion, DC plan members are allowed to invest their pension wealth into stocks as well as cash and bond assets. We derived the optimal portfolio candidate and we show how a DC plan investor can benefit from market opportunities by taking advantage of the momentum and mean reversion stock return properties. We find that long term investors such as DC plan members would benefit from a temporary increase of the share of risky assets in their portfolio in preparation of their retirement.

The Home, Pension Savings and Risk Aversion: Intentions of the Defined Contribution Pension Plan Participants of a London-based Investment Bank at the Peak of the Bubble

In the lead-up to the peak of the financial bubble (and before the onset of the global financial crisis), property was regularly promoted as a ready-made alternative to private pensions. This paper explores the importance of owner-occupied housing for the retirement savings strategies of defined contribution (DC) pension plan members. Based upon a unique survey of over 2300 participants in the DC pension scheme of a London-based international bank, an assessment is made of the statistical significance of respondents’ socioeconomic status and risk preference in predicting the significance or otherwise of their home for retirement saving. Relatively few respondents indicated that they were likely to rely on their home. Those that indicated reliance were relatively older, higher-paid and married employees. The paper concludes with implications for understanding the connection between savings behaviour and housing before and after the global financial crisis.