Peninsula Earthquake Research Articles

Shoreline advance due to the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake.

Large earthquakes can instantaneously reshape coastal landforms owing to fault zone ruptures that uplift the Earth's surface. On January 1, 2024, in the north of the Noto Peninsula, central Japan, an Mj7.6 (Mw7.5) earthquake occurred, triggering coastal uplift of up to 4m. To measure the resulting shoreline advance, we analyzed orthophotos taken before and after the earthquake, focusing on two bays in the northwest of the Noto Peninsula where the largest uplift occurred. In response to the uplift, the shoreline advanced by up to 200m, increasing the total area of the coastal plains by 0.46 km2. The maximum shoreline extension occurred in the midsection of both bays, while the extension at the edges was less than 20m, possibly reflecting the shoreface topography and bathymetry existing before the uplift. The uplift exposed previously undersea rocks, forming new coastal plains and extending river channels. Our results indicate that coastal landforms such as sandy beaches, coastal plains, shore platforms, and the sediment budgets of feeding drainage systems were substantially altered by this earthquake, and a long recovery period is anticipated. Our findings serve as a crucial benchmark for tracking future changes in shorelines in response to coastal landform adjustments.

The Multi‐Segment Complexity of the 2024 MW ${M}_{W}$ 7.5 Noto Peninsula Earthquake Governs Tsunami Generation

AbstractThe 1 January 2024, moment magnitude 7.5 Noto Peninsula earthquake ruptured in complex ways, challenging analysis of its tsunami generation. We present tsunami models informed by a 6‐subevent centroid moment tensor (CMT) model obtained through Bayesian inversion of teleseismic and strong motion data. We identify two distinct bilateral rupture episodes. Initial, onshore rupture toward the southwest is followed by delayed re‐nucleation at the hypocenter, likely aided by fault weakening, causing significant seafloor uplift to the northeast. We construct a complex multi‐fault uplift model, validated against geodetic observations, that aligns with known fault system geometries and is critical in modeling the observed tsunami. The simulations can explain tsunami wave amplitude, timing, and polarity of the leading wave, which are crucial for tsunami early warning. Upon comparison with alternative source models and analysis of 2000 multi‐CMT ensemble solutions, we highlight the importance of incorporating complex source effects for realistic tsunami simulations.

Real-time modeling of transient crustal deformation through the quantification of uncertainty deduced from GNSS data

We propose a new method for real-time uncertainty monitoring of earthquake and volcano source models using data from the global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and explore its application concerning observation station placement. The Geospatial Information Authority of Japan operates two main types of GNSS earth observation network system (GEONET) coordinates for crustal deformation monitoring on different time scales: post-processing analysis values and real-time GEONET analysis system for rapid deformation monitoring (REGARD). REGARD uses the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method termed real-time automatic uncertainty estimation of a coseismic single rectangular model using GNSS data (RUNE) for single rectangular fault model estimation to handle uncertainty. Thus far, no GNSS monitoring system can automatically detect transient crustal deformation events, such as volcanic activity and earthquake swarms, on timescales of a day or less. We extended RUNE and developed a core program for a new monitoring system for earthquake and volcanic source models and their uncertainties. Our program achieved automatic and stable MCMC utilization for rectangular fault, dike, Mogi, and spheroid models by increasing the computational speed, improving search efficiency, and adjusting hyperparameters. The program automatically determines the standard deviation of the likelihood function assuming a normal distribution with weights for each observation station. The calculation time was within 15 s for 1 × 106 samples on a standard 1U server. We assessed the reliability of the developed method using synthetic and observed GNSS data from the 2015 Sakurajima volcanic event. The results were consistent with the assumed model and previous studies and indicated an advantage in automatically quantifying uncertainty in a short computation time. Based on MCMC samples, we developed a new visualization algorithm to indicate areas on a map in which the number of observation stations should be expanded. We assessed the reliability using data from the 2023 Noto Peninsula earthquake [Mj 6.5]. The results indicate that the algorithm is helpful in studying the placement of stations. The above model extensions and their application are essential to achieve a rapid quantitative understanding of disaster events near urban areas and for utilizing this information in emergency response activities.Graphical

Co-Seismic and Post-Seismic Slip Properties Associated with the 2024 M 7.5 Noto Peninsula, Japan Earthquake Determined by GNSS Observations

Based on GNSS observations, the co-seismic and post-seismic slip of the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake and the spatio-temporal pattern of afterslip are investigated in this paper. The co-seismic slip is mainly distributed in the depth range of 2 to 15 km with the maximum value of 5.94 m. Compared with the co-seismic rupture pattern, a shallow afterslip can be observed after the earthquake, and the afterslip patch is formed northeast of the epicenter. The maximum value of afterslip during the post-seismic 180 days is 1.13 m, which is situated at the longitude of 137.53°, latitude of 37.75°, and epth of 5.43 km. The spatio-temporal evolution of afterslip indicates that the fault activity has continued throughout the post-seismic 180 days, and the coverage and magnitude of afterslip have gradually increased. As time goes on, the fault activity tends to weaken, as evidenced by a decrease in slip rate. The daily images of afterslip demonstrate that the fault activity is particularly strong in the early time period following the earthquake. The maximum value of afterslip in the first week accounts for about 18% of that in the post-seismic 180 days, and the maximum slip rate reaches 0.043 m/day. In addition, the Coulomb stress analysis indicates that afterslip and most aftershocks appear in the positive Coulomb stress region, suggesting that co-seismic Coulomb stress changes may be the driving mechanism of afterslip and aftershocks.

Quasi-real-time earthquake relocation and monitoring in the northeastern Noto Peninsula

The seismicity rate markedly increased in the northeastern Noto Peninsula of Ishikawa Prefecture around the end of 2020, with an Mw6.2 event on 5 May, 2023, followed by many aftershocks. Previous earthquake relocation studies have detected upward migration of microearthquakes via multiple faults and clusters, suggesting the involvement of crustal fluids in this sequence. Since some active faults exist near the source region, there was concern that this sequence could lead to a larger earthquake; it became a reality with the Mw7.5 earthquake on 1 January 2024. This study aims to develop an algorithm to precisely relocate microearthquake hypocenters in quasi-real time for better monitoring. A fine view of seismicity requires relative relocation methods such as the double-difference (DD) method with numerous arrival time difference data precisely measured by the waveform correlation analysis. However, the standard DD method has the disadvantage of huge computational costs when data increase, making it unsuitable for real-time monitoring in such situations. We developed a quasi-real-time algorithm that relocates only new earthquakes using the DD method each time a new time window of data is added. The major improvement is that our method incorporates a traditional simple relative relocation and preserves constraints between different time windows; the relative locations of new events are constrained from reference events that were already relocated in the previous time windows. We tested a daily relocation algorithm on 11,546 events from 19 June, 2022, to 31 May, 2023, in the Noto Peninsula earthquake sequence. We found that our modification substantially reduced artificial hypocenter offsets between different time windows and succeeded in resolving the fine fault structures from the cloud-like distribution of initial hypocenters. If we do not impose constraints between different windows, the relocated hypocenters are scattered and do not show fine planar structures. Our algorithm greatly reduces the computational cost, allowing for quasi-real-time earthquake relocation and monitoring. We hope this algorithm will help monitor the spatio-temporal distribution of future earthquake sequences.Graphical

Nearshore Propagation and Amplification of the Tsunami Following the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake, Japan

AbstractOn 1 January 2024, a massive earthquake struck the Noto Peninsula in Japan, and the resulting tsunami significantly damaged the nearby coasts. This study focuses on Iida Bay, located on the peninsula that suffered severe coastal damage. We observed a tsunami waveform in Iida Bay from video analysis owing to the lack of instrument data. This, combined with the waveform observed outside the bay, was used to correct the initial sea‐surface displacements produced by a prior source model. We successfully reproduced the observed waveforms with corrected displacements and investigated how the tsunami propagated and amplified in the bay. Alongshore wave propagation and superposition were identified as crucial factors in this tsunami event.

An end-to-end framework for fire following earthquake simulation at regional scale: A case study on the 2024 Japan Noto Peninsula earthquake

Fire following earthquakes remains a significant and threatening hazard to communities in urban regions. Addressing this critical issue requires an effective simulation method that is suitable for widespread adoption. This paper presents a systematic end-to-end framework for simulating fire following earthquakes at a regional scale by integrating models and methods available in existing literature. Relevant theories and models are summarized and incorporated into the calculation workflow. The framework encompasses three key features: (1) GIS-based regional building data management, (2) physics-based fire simulation, and (3) high-fidelity visualization. The implementation of the framework is presented in a sequential and detailed manner, with a focus on its practicality and replicability. Each component of the workflow is designed to be adaptable, allowing for easy customization and improvement to accommodate unique site characteristics or the integration of new models through the introduction of sub-modules. To demonstrate the practicality of the proposed framework, a case study based on the recent 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake in Japan is presented. The simulation results correspond well with the observed actual damage at the fire following earthquake disaster site, with an accuracy of 87.8 %, which validates the framework's accuracy and reliability in simulating fire following earthquakes.

Sediment-related disasters induced by the Noto Peninsula Earthquake in January 2024

Sediment-related disasters induced by the Noto Peninsula Earthquake in January 2024

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Art Activity Workshops for Individuals with Disabilities Affected by the Noto Peninsula Earthquake: Structure and Characteristics as Revealed Through Participant Interviews

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Art Activity Workshops for Individuals with Disabilities Affected by the Noto Peninsula Earthquake: Structure and Characteristics as Revealed Through Participant Interviews

Linking affected community and academic knowledge: a community-based participatory research framework based on a Shichigahama project

Earthquakes that cause extensive damage occur frequently in Japan, the most recent being the Noto Peninsula earthquake on January 1, 2024. To facilitate such a recovery, we introduce a community-based participatory research program implemented through cooperation between universities and local communities after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. In this project, the university and the town of Shichigahama, one of the affected areas, collaborated to hold annual workshops in the target area, which evolved into a climate monitoring survey. Even in Japan, where disaster prevention planning is widespread, various problems arise in the process of emergency response, recovery and reconstruction, and building back better when disasters occur. As is difficult for residents and local governments to solve these problems alone, it is helpful when experts participate in the response process. In this study, we interviewed town hall and university officials as representatives of local residents regarding this project and discussed their mutual concerns. The community-based participatory research framework developed in the Shichigahama project could be used in the recovery from the Noto Peninsula Earthquake as well as in future reconstruction and disaster management projects.

Slow rupture in a fluid-rich fault zone initiated the 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto earthquake.

The 2024 moment magnitude 7.5 Noto Peninsula (Japan) earthquake caused devastation to communities and was generated by a complex rupture process. Using space geodetic and seismic observations, we have shown that the event deformed the peninsula with a peak uplift reaching 5 meters at the west coast. Shallow slip exceeded 10 meters on an offshore fault. Peak stress drop was greater than 10 megapascals. This devastating event began with a slow rupture propagation lasting 15 to 20 seconds near its hypocenter, where seismic swarms had surged since 2020 because of lower-crust fluid supply. The slow start was accompanied by intense high-frequency seismic radiation. These observations suggest a distinct coseismic slip mode reflecting high heterogeneity in fault properties within a fluid-rich fault zone.

Role of a Hidden Fault in the Early Process of the 2024 Mw7.5 Noto Peninsula Earthquake

AbstractThe 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula, Japan, earthquake was initiated within the source region of intense swarm activity. To reveal the mainshock early process, we relocated the earthquake hypocenters and found that many key phenomena, including the mainshock initiation, foreshocks, swarm earthquakes, and deep aseismic slip, occurred at parts of a previously unrecognized fault in intricate fault network. This fault is subparallel (several kilometers deeper) to a known active fault, and the mainshock initiation and foreshocks occurred at the front of a 2‐year westward swarm migration. The initiation location coincides with the destination of the upward migration of a deeper earthquake cluster via several smaller faults. Fluid supply, small earthquakes, and aseismic slip on the fault likely triggered the mainshock, leading to the first major rupture at the western region, propagating further to the west and east sides, resulting in an Mw7.5 event, exceeding 100 km in length.

Estimation of Tsunami Waveform at Wajima Port by the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake using Video Images

Estimation of Tsunami Waveform at Wajima Port by the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake using Video Images

Focal mechanics and disaster characteristics of the 2024 M 7.6 Noto Peninsula Earthquake, Japan

On January 1, 2024, a devastating M 7.6 earthquake struck the Noto Peninsula, Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan, resulting in significant casualties and property damage. Utilizing information from the first six days after the earthquake, this article analyzes the seismic source characteristics, disaster situation, and emergency response of this earthquake. The results show: 1) The earthquake rupture was of the thrust type, with aftershock distribution showing a north-east-oriented belt-like feature of 150 km. 2) Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), observations detected significant westward to north-westward co-seismic displacement near the epicenter, with the maximum horizontal displacement reaching 1.2 m and the vertical uplift displacement reaching 4 m. A two-segment fault inversion model fits the observational data well. 3) Near the epicenter, large Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) were observed, with the maxima reaching 145 cm/s and 2681 gal, respectively, and the intensity reached the highest level 7 on the Japanese (Japan Meteorological Agency, JMA) intensity standard, which is higher than level 10 of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) standard. 4) The observation of the very rare multiple strong pulse-like ground motion (PLGM) waveform poses a topic worthy of research in the field of earthquake engineering. 5) As of January 7, the earthquake had left 128 deaths and 560 injuries in Ishikawa Prefecture, with 1305 buildings completely or partially destroyed, and had triggered a chain of disasters including tsunamis, fires, slope failures, and road damage. Finally, this paper summarizes the emergency rescue, information dissemination, and other disaster response and management measures taken in response to this earthquake. This work provides a reference case for carrying out effective responses, and offers lessons for handling similar events in the future.

Effect of the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake on outpatient chemotherapy among cancer survivors in Japan: a retrospective study

BackgroundThe study aim was to elucidate the effect of the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake on outpatient chemotherapy treatment of cancer survivors at Kanazawa Medical University Hospital (KMUH), Japan.MethodsMedical and nursing records for January 4–31, 2024, from KMUH were retrospectively collected, and data for 286 participants were analyzed.ResultsOf the 286 participants, 95.1% were able to attend their first scheduled appointment. Of the 12 (4.2%) who could not attend because of the earthquake, 7 (58.3%) rescheduled their appointments. A total of 8 participants (2.8%) were unable to attend their second scheduled appointment in January, despite being able to attend their first appointment; 3 (37.5%) of these participants reported that they were unable to attend their appointments because of the effect of the earthquake. Chemotherapy was not administered to 53 (18.5%) participants who did attend, mainly owing to neutropenia, progressive disease, rash, and anemia. Evacuation information was available for 25 participants (8.7%); of these, 8 (28.6%) evacuated to their homes, 7 (25.0%) to public shelters, and 4 (14.3%) to apartments near the hospital. Disaster status information was obtained from 62 participants (21.7%), and indicated experiences such as home damage, water outages, and relying on transportation assistance from family to attend appointments.ConclusionsMost cancer survivors receiving chemotherapy at KMUH were able to maintain outpatient visits. However, a few could not attend because of the earthquake. Further studies are needed to provide more detailed information on the effect of disasters on cancer survivors and the potential factors underlying non-attendance at medical appointments.

What was the source of the nonseismic tsunami that occurred in Toyama Bay during the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake

In recent years, there have been worldwide reports of massive tsunamis, drawing attention to how tsunamis are intensified by submarine landslides triggered by earthquakes. However, precise data on tsunamis caused by submarine landslides are scarce, leading to insufficient information for a thorough discussion of the characteristics of such tsunamis. On the other hand, during the Noto Peninsula earthquake (Mw7.5) that occurred in Japan on January 1, 2024, a nonseismic tsunami distinct from those originating from fault ruptures were observed. To investigate its characteristics, we analyzed tide/wave gauge records, video footage, and tsunami trace heights along the coast of Toyama Bay. Furthermore, we validated scenarios capable of reproducing the observed records using an integrated landslide–tsunami model. It was found that assuming the existence of 5 submarine landslides along the underwater canyons of Toyama Bay enabled the precise explanation of multiple types of data. Additionally, our study revealed that submarine landslides occurred approximately 50 s after the earthquake, coinciding with the peak ground shaking in Toyama Bay. Compared to the seismic tsunami originating solely from the Noto Peninsula offshore fault rupture, the subsequent tsunami triggered by submarine landslides amplified the tsunami height by approximately 30% along Toyama Bay.

Aerial SfM–MVS Visualization of Surface Deformation along Folds during the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake (Mw7.5)

This study aimed to map and analyze the spatial pattern of the surface deformation associated with the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake (Mw7.5) using structure-from-motion/multi-view-stereo (SfM–MVS), an advanced photogrammetric technique. The analysis was conducted using digital aerial photographs with a ground pixel dimension of 0.2 m (captured the day after the earthquake). Horizontal locations of GCPs were determined using pre-earthquake data to remove the wide-area horizontal crustal deformation component. The elevations of the GCPs were corrected by incorporating quasi-vertical values derived from a 2.5-dimensional analysis of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) results. In the synclinorium structure area, where no active fault had previously been identified, we observed a 5 km long uplift zone (0.1 to 0.2 km in width), along with multiple scarps that reached a maximum height of 2.2 m. The area and shape of the surface deformation suggested that the induced uplift and surrounding landslides were related to fold structures and their growth. Thus, our study shows the efficacy of SfM–MVS with respect to accurately mapping earthquake-induced deformations, providing crucial data for understanding seismic activity and informing disaster-response strategies.

Landslides triggered by the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake

Landslides triggered by the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake

Crustal stress buildup/relaxation and pore pressure in preparation and sequential brittle-shear fault rupture — Implications for a general theory of earthquake nucleation

Compelling geoscience evidence has heightened the appreciation of abnormal (suprahydrostatic, sub/quasi/supralithostatic) pore pressure and multimode (brittle-shear) fault rupture leading to seismicity. However, preparation and rupture nucleation are yet to be adequately constrained and quantitatively modeled. This challenges crucial schemes, notably physics-based earthquake forecasting/prediction. In this multidisciplinary study, the transitions and associated critical points linking the preexisting fluid overpressure in the fault patches, temporal crustal stress, and sequential brittle-shear fault failure were considered. In preparation, tectonic loading was accompanied by processes such as off-fault yielding, permeability enhancement, and foreshocks that facilitate local/regional stress relaxation. Subsequent equalization of stress and the preexisting local overpressure triggers hydraulic fracturing that destabilizes major asperities. Almost instant shear failure follows with the spatially varying rupture velocity/intensity of the frictional slip because of localized asperity stress and syn-slip fluid-/melt-driven fracturing/dilation and lubrication. Based on the aforementioned critical points, quantitative modeling associated stress drop with the evolution of the stress and pore pressure. Equations for the time to onset of stress relaxation and time to rupture were derived using fluid flow and viscoelastic models. The seismic moment was estimated with classical seismological relations after modifications accounting for the smaller surface area during frictional slip. For retrospective testing, two cases of induced seismicity (2016 Fairview, Oklahoma, USA, and 2017 Pohang, South Korea) and multiple cases of natural seismicity (including the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake, Japan) were considered. The replication of triggering mechanisms, source properties, and time to rupture suggested that stress temporal relaxation and triggered anomalies (STRATA) encompass fundamental hydromechanical processes in seismogenesis. The setting and scale invariance of STRATA suggest it might be a general theory of earthquake nucleation. Based on the identified preparatory processes/retrospective validations, a physics-based earthquake forecasting/prediction scheme was developed. The nurseries/hypocenters of impending earthquakes are identified through the simultaneous consideration of locally preexisting fluid overpressure and spatiotemporal analysis of stress relaxation. Event size and rupture timing are estimated with the derived relations herein.

Dataset of Post-Event Survey of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake Tsunami in Japan

An earthquake with a moment magnitude of 7.5 (Mw) struck the northern Noto Peninsula, Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan, at 16:10 local time on January 1, 2024. This earthquake triggered a tsunami that propagated along the coastline of Ishikawa, Toyama, and Niigata Prefectures facing the Sea of Japan and significantly damaged coastal communities and infrastructure. Approximately 70 researchers from 23 universities or other institutes throughout Japan formed a joint research group to conduct a post-tsunami survey along a 340 km stretch of the coast. Based on the watermarks and traces of the tsunami, the inundation and run-up heights were surveyed using total stations, automatic optical levels, laser range finders, and a real-time kinematic (RTK) Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). The tidal correction was adjusted using astronomical tidal tables. In total, 303 survey records have been compiled, generating the NP2024TS (Noto Peninsula 2024 Tsunami Survey) dataset. This dataset provides comprehensive information on the inundation and run-up heights of the tsunami, which is useful for understanding tsunami characteristics and validating numerical tsunami models.