Penalty Takers Research Articles

Goalkeepers benefit from using deceptive actions in the soccer penalty kick

ABSTRACT Most studies on deception in soccer penalty kicks have focused on the deceptive actions used by penalty takers. However, it is worth noting that deception can also be played out by goalkeepers. To examine the effectiveness of goalkeepers’ deceptive actions in professional competition, we analysed 714 penalty kicks taken during matches in the English Premier League and German Bundesliga, spanning the seasons from 2016–2017 to 2019–2020. We scored whether goalkeepers used deception, and if so, what type of deception, the outcome of the penalty and the kicking strategy of the penalty taker. The results showed that goalkeepers used deception in half of the penalty kicks, resulting in significantly less goals compared to penalties without deception. This advantage was similar for the different types of deception, but larger when penalty takers paid attention to goalkeepers. We propose that the deceptive actions by goalkeepers are effective, mainly because it leads the penalty taker to lose focus. The practical implications of these findings are discussed for both goalkeepers and penalty takers.

Strategic insights into penalty kick execution: A comprehensive analysis of observable behaviors in the German Bundesliga

This study aimed to investigate which observable variables would be able to predict the penalty taker strategy; and to identify the prevalence of the penalty taker strategy in successful penalty kicks. Dataset consists of 220 penalty kicks from the German Bundesliga (2019-2021). Video-based performance analysis of in-match penalty kicks was performed. Chi-squared (χ2) test and logistic regression (enter method) analyses were performed to investigate the relationship between observable behaviors and the penalty-taker strategy. The following behavior: gaze behavior at the ball, no deception, number of steps more than 3, perceived ball speed as powerful shot, run up speed fast, penalty kick shot height at the center or down, kicking technique instep kick, and run up approach frontal was related to the goalkeeper independent strategy (χ2 (177) = 211.049, 96%, p < .001). In successful penalty kicks the independent goalkeeper strategy was more adopted (59.87%). The differentiation between penalty kick patterns provides scientific and practical insights as it enables researchers to identify patterns in the German Bundesliga. Through analysis of the kicker's running pattern, deception actions, gaze behavior, and kicking technique, football practitioners may attempt to determine the kicker's favored approach, and ultimately the penalty kick strategy, so they can inform coaching staff and players.

Response times are affected by mispredictions in a stochastic game

Acting as a goalkeeper in a video-game, a participant is asked to predict the successive choices of the penalty taker. The sequence of choices of the penalty taker is generated by a stochastic chain with memory of variable length. It has been conjectured that the probability distribution of the response times is a function of the specific sequence of past choices governing the algorithm used by the penalty taker to make his choice at each step. We found empirical evidence that besides this dependence, the distribution of the response times depends also on the success or failure of the previous prediction made by the participant. Moreover, we found statistical evidence that this dependence propagates up to two steps forward after the prediction failure.

It’s not all in your feet: Improving penalty kick performance with human-avatar interaction and machine learning

Penalty kicks are increasingly decisive in major international football competitions. Yet, over 30% of shootout kicks are missed. The outcome of the kick often relies on the ability of the penalty taker to exploit anticipatory movements of the goalkeeper to redirect the kick toward the open side of the goal. Unfortunately, this ability is difficult to train using classical methods. We used an augmented reality simulator displaying an holographic goalkeeper to test and train penalty kick performance with 13 young elite players. Machine learning algorithms were used to optimize the learning rate by maintaining an optimal level of training difficulty. Ten training sessions of 20 kicks reduced the redirection threshold by 120ms, which constituted a 28% reduction with respect to the baseline threshold. Importantly, redirection threshold reduction was observed for all trained players, and all things being equal, it corresponded to an estimated 35% improvement of the success rate.

The effectiveness of penalty takers' deception: A scoping review

Attackers are supposed to take advantage of producing deceptive actions in competitive ball sports, particularly in penalty situations. We conducted a scoping review of the experimental literature to scrutinize whether penalty takers do indeed benefit from using deceptive actions in penalty situations, especially by increasing the likelihood to score a goal. Studies using video-based and in-situ tasks in which soccer and handball goalkeepers try to save a penalty were evaluated. Results showed that penalty takers' manipulation of spatial information available to the goalkeeper during deception (i.e., by using misleading and/or disguising actions) is less effective in in-situ than video-based studies. We argue that this difference occurs because goalkeepers adapt differently to the spatiotemporal constraints in the video-based and in-situ tasks. Goalkeepers appear to prioritize picking up spatial information in video-based tasks while prioritizing temporal information in-situ tasks. Therefore, the manipulation of spatial information appears to be less effective in the more representative in-situ studies than in video-based studies. In order to deceive, penalty takers are advised to manipulate temporal information during on-field penalty situations.

Affective Responses Mediate the Body Language of Penalty Taker – Decision-Making Relationship from Soccer Goalkeepers

ABSTRACT Purpose: Previous studies have shown that penalty-takers’ body language affects the impressions that goalkeepers form about them and their anticipation performance. This research aimed to replicate these results and test the mediating effect of threat/challenge responses on the relationship between impression formation and the quality of goalkeeper decision-making. Methods and Results: We report 2 experiments. The first showed that participants (goalkeepers) form more positive impressions and have a lower expectation of success from dominant penalty-takers than submissive penalty-takers, and the second showed under pressure conditions that goalkeepers‘ decision-making was significantly less accurate against dominant players than against submissive players. In addition, we found that the more goalkeepers perceived the penalty-taker as competent, the more threatened they felt; conversely, the less they perceived the penalty-taker as competent, the more challenged they felt. Conclusion: Finally, our analysis showed that participants’ cognitive appraisal (challenge vs. threat) influenced the quality of their decision-making and played a partial mediating role in the relationship between impression formation and decision-making.

Penalty Shootouts: Are Exstimates on the Spot?

Abstract James Jackson analyses England's painful defeat against Italy in the 2020 Euros. Could a more statistically rigorous approach to picking penalty takers have led to a different result?

Prediction of the penalty kick direction in men’s soccer

ABSTRACT The penalty kick might be a crucial moment during a soccer game because of its relevance on the scoreboard, mainly during shootouts. For this purpose, the present study established a model to predict the ball direction taking into consideration the leg dominance of the penalty taker and other posture variables just before the ball contact. A total of 412 penalties from 11 international high-standard tournaments (2010–2019) were analysed. The better predictive model for the shot direction was selected through all possible subsets regression method. Thus, the final model included three predictors and two multiplicative terms, with an acceptable classifying power with a specificity and sensitivity greater than 85%. This model was applied for predicting the probability to shot to the left and the right side of the goal in 12 different kicking patterns. The most frequent pattern was a right-footed taker with the left arm in a >90° abduction with a left orientation of the support foot (n = 122; 30%). Following this pattern, probability of shooting to the left or to the right was 0.970 (95% CI: 0.927–0.988) and 0.030 (95% CI: 0.012–0.073), respectively. The present study conceived a model as parsimonious as possible with three predictors easily available to the goalkeeper.

Identifying the best strategy for soccer penalty success: A predictive model for optimising behavioural and biomechanical trade-offs

Success in a soccer penalty can be the difference between winning and losing matches. The outcome is determined by a complex interaction between the shooter and goalkeeper, whose performances are constrained by biomechanical trade-offs. To overcome these performance constraints, each player has a range of available strategies. Shooters can kick at different speeds, affecting accuracy, while goalkeepers can move at various times (leave-times), affecting the time available to move and the probability they move in the correct direction. Previous models of penalty success ignore such trade-offs and how they interact to influence the outcome. Here, we present a model that accounts for shooting inaccuracy to predict the probability of success for all shooting strategies, defined as any combination of: shot speed, position where the shooter aims, shooter footedness, and kicking technique (side-foot or instep). To estimate the probability of success each shooting strategy is matched against all possible goalkeeper leave-times, considering the probability each leave-time is chosen. We test the model against an average goalkeeper and a goalkeeper who tends to move later. Against the average goalkeeper, aiming on the ground toward the centre of the goal is optimal; however, against a late moving goalkeeper, aiming on the ground to the extremities of the goal is effective, with the optimal target in the horizontal dimension dependent on shot speed, kick technique, and footedness. Coaches could use this model to identify their best penalty takers and each players’ optimal shooting strategy against either the average goalkeeper or a specific goalkeeper.

Evaluation of Pressure Elements in the Penalty Kicks

Background: A penalty kick in football is one of the most important rules that directly affect the score of the match. Penalty kicks have always been the focus of attention in terms of both the result and the shot. Aim: The aim of this study is to determine whether the one who takes the penalty or saves the penalty is more effective and to determine whether the players who use the penalty show a tendency in a certain direction. Methods: In this study, a detailed analysis of penalty shootouts with the 10-year data of the Turkish Super League was made. SPSS.22 package program was used in statistical analyses. Analyses of penalty kicks were compared with the Chi-square test and the level of significance was taken as 0,05 in all tests. Results: According to the results of the analysis, goalkeepers guessed correctly 46% of the direction where the ball passed in all penalties (r=0.74; p=0.000). 52% of left-footed penalty takers shot to the left, and 46.9% of right-footed penalty takers to the right. There was no statistical difference between the direction where the ball was thrown, and the foot used by the penalty kicker (p>0.05). Conclusion: In the analysis made with 10-year data, it has been determined that the players do not tend to a certain direction when using penalties. Keywords: Penalty kick; football; penalty zone; Turkish Super League; penalty direction

Detecting patterns in the behaviour of goalkeepers and kickers in the penalty shootout: a between-gender comparison among score situations

ABSTRACT There is plenty of research on penalty kicking in men's soccer, with a focus on either the goalkeeper or the penalty taker. Yet women's soccer and their playing behaviour are under-represented in research. The current study was designed to examine gender differences in the choice patterns of expert kickers and goalkeepers during penalty shooting in relation to the previously documented right-oriented bias. Using videos of penalties from shootouts at the highest level of men's and women's international soccer, we recorded the goalkeeper's dive direction and accurately measured the location of the ball as it crossed the goal line. We created a map of all kicks and their outcomes (goal, no goal, off-target). Our mapping procedure allowed us to use alternative definitions for the goal centre width and to extract the corresponding kick distribution between right, centre and left. In addition to analysing the potential right-oriented bias in women goalies’ behaviour, we also analysed the joint distribution of kickers’ and goalkeepers’ choices for each score situation (behind, tied, or ahead). Our findings indicate that the goalkeepers’ general tendency was to dive more often to the right, while the kickers’ tendency was to shoot to the right of the goalies. Moreover, this latter tendency of kicking to the goalies’ right was found to be stronger among the female kickers. Finally, our analysis refutes the claim that goalkeepers exhibit a detrimental right-oriented bias, with this conclusion being even stronger among female goalies.

Body Pose Estimation Integrated With Notational Analysis: A New Approach to Analyze Penalty Kicks Strategy in Elite Football.

Body orientation of football players has proven to be an informative resource related to successful penalty kicks. OpenPose is one of the most popular open-source pose estimation technologies. This study aims: (i) to verify whether OpenPose can detect relevant body orientation angles from video data of penalty kicks in elite football and (ii) to investigate the relationship between these body angles and observable behaviors analyzed via an observational system for penalty kick analysis in football (OSPAF) with the penalty taker and goalkeeper strategy. A total of 34 penalty videos, with standardized viewing angle, from the main European leagues (2017–2020) were analyzed. Relevant body orientation variables were selected for penalty kicks analysis and were extracted from video data through OpenPose technique. The OSPAF, previously validated by experts, was used. The mean confidence score of OpenPose measures was 0.80 ± 0.14. OpenPose Retest reliability values was 0.976 ± 0.03. Logistic regressions were performed to investigate the relationship between OpenPose investigated variables (penalty taker: shoulder, hips, and nonkicking foot orientation; goalkeeper: right and left foot, anticipation), observable behaviors (OSPAF variables), and the strategy (penalty taker: goalkeeper dependent or independent; goalkeeper: shooter dependent or independent) in penalty kicks. The selected body orientation angle (goalkeeper anticipation) measured through OpenPose correlated significantly with the goalkeeper strategy. The prediction model of the goalkeeper's strategy had its accuracy increased to 97% when the variable goalkeeper anticipation was included [ = 49.648, p < 0.001]. Lower degrees of goalkeeper anticipation, the goalkeeper tactical action (awaiting), and run up speed (slow) were associated with a kicker-dependent strategy. Regarding the penalty taker, the selected body angles measured through OpenPose did not associate significantly with the shooter strategy. Body orientation analysis by using OpenPose has shown sufficient reliability and provides practical applications for analyzing the strategies adopted by goalkeepers in penalty kicks in elite football.

Multifactorial analysis of football penalty kicks in the Portuguese First League: A replication study

Although penalty-kick outcomes in football are thought to be affected by different factors, many of them have not been sufficiently analysed yet. This study sought to replicate and extend the findings of a previous multifactorial analysis of penalty kicks in Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) club competitions. For that purpose, we used a larger sample ( n = 833), collected from eight consecutive seasons of the Portuguese First League (from 2013–2014 to 2020–2021) and adding the variables season, team quality and the penalty taker's playing status (starter or substitute) to the analysis. Chi-square tests of independence only showed significant associations of performance-related factors ( shot horizontal and vertical directions, and goalkeeper's action) with penalty-kick outcome. Multinomial logistic regression model revealed significant increases in the odds of penalty kicks being saved when (1) shots were directed to the centre-left zones compared to the right zones (penalty taker's perspective), (2) shots were directed to the low zones of the goal and (3) goalkeepers dived to the correct side of the ball. In addition, the probability of missing the target or hitting the goalpost/crossbar significantly increased when shots aimed the high zones of the goal. Noteworthy, the risk of a penalty being saved when the shot was directed to the bottom zones of the goal outweighed the “miss factor” of shooting high. These findings enable coaches to develop optimal strategies for taking and saving penalty kicks, thus increasing the likelihood of both players to succeed in competitive matches, regardless of individual attributes and/or casual competitive circumstances.

Affordance-based control in deceptive and non-deceptive penalties in soccer goalkeeping: Gender matters!

Only few studies have addressed how soccer goalkeepers adapt to both the spatial and temporal constraints while trying to stop a penalty kick. Moreover, research on penalty kicks has only involved male goalkeepers, even though the resultant constraint (i.e., the relation between the maximum action capabilities defining the time required and ball flight time and direction defining the time available) may or may not differ for female goalkeepers. We therefore compared penalty goalkeeping between male and female goalkeepers of similar skill level. The results showed that the resultant constraint was more stringent for female than male goalkeepers. In accordance with the affordance-based control theory, female and male goalkeepers both adapted to the resultant constraint, but did scale their diving action differently. Female goalkeepers initiated the lateral dive within the action boundaries set by the resultant constraint, while male goalkeepers tended to dive late, beyond the action boundaries. Owing to the early dive, female goalkeepers saved more penalties than male in non-deceptive penalties. Nevertheless, female goalkeepers were also more susceptible to deception by the penalty taker than male goalkeepers. These findings extend our knowledge of the affordance-based control theory in sports and contribute to the understanding of gender differences in soccer penalty goalkeeping.

Hierarchical Bayes modelling of penalty conversion rates of Bundesliga players

Judging by its significant potential to affect the outcome of a game in one single action, the penalty kick is arguably the most important set piece in football. Scientific studies on how the ability to convert a penalty kick is distributed among professional football players are scarce. In this paper, we consider how to rank penalty takers in the German Bundesliga based on historical data from 1963 to 2021. We use Bayesian models that improve inference on ability measures of individual players by imposing structural assumptions on an associated high-dimensional parameter space. These methods prove useful for our application, coping with the inherent difficulty that many players only take few penalties, making purely frequentist inference rather unreliable.

Factors Associated With Penalty Outcome on Male Elite Goalball.

The authors' purpose was to examine the factors associated with penalty outcomes of male elite goalball. A total of 122 video-recorded matches from two Paralympic Games (i.e.,2012 and 2016) and the 2014 Goalball World Championship were assessed using notational analysis. Individual (n = 2), situational (n = 4), and performance variables (n = 7) were analyzed with good strength of agreement for intra- and interrater kappa index values. Their results showed that penalties play a very important role in the final score, composing around 25% of total goals in elite goalball matches. Winners were awarded on average with 62% of penalties and had 66% effectiveness compared with losers (31% and 53%) or drawers (8% and 52%). Based on the authors' findings, penalty takers should direct their throws at specific target sectors on the court, which could increase their rate of success to over 80%.

Design and Validation of an Observational System for Penalty Kick Analysis in Football (OSPAF).

The analysis of penalty kick has played an important role in performance analysis. The study aims are to get formal feedback on the relevance of variables for penalty kick analysis, to design and validate an observational system; and to assess experts’ opinion on the optimum video footage in penalty kick analysis. A structured development process was adopted for content validity, reliability and agreement on video usage. All observational variables included in OSPAF showed Aiken’s V values above the cut-off (for 5-scale V> 0.64; for 2-scale = V > 0.75; p < 0.05). Cohen’s Kappa resulted in mean intra- and inter-rater reliability values of 0.90 and 0.86, respectively. It is recommended to combine at least three different viewing angles (V = 0.90; p = 0.006) with standardization of video quality (V = 0.95; p = 0.006). Changing the viewing angles may influence the observer perception (V = 0.86; p = 0.006). The aerial and pitch-level viewing angle behind the penalty taker and pitch-level viewing angle behind the goalkeeper were indicated as most appropriate for observational analysis (V = 0.97; p = 0.01). The OSPAF met all requirements of instrument validation. It may be recommended as basis of future observational systems on penalty kicks.

A regularized hidden Markov model for analyzing the ‘hot shoe’ in football

We propose a penalized likelihood approach in hidden Markov models (HMMs) to perform automated variable selection. To account for a potential large number of covariates, which also may be substantially correlated, we consider the elastic net penalty containing LASSO and ridge as special cases. By quadratically approximating the non-differentiable penalty, we ensure that the likelihood can be maximized numerically. The feasibility of our approach is assessed in simulation experiments. As a case study, we examine the ‘hot hand’ effect, whose existence is highly debated in different fields, such as psychology and economics. In the present work, we investigate a potential ‘hot shoe’ effect for the performance of penalty takers in (association) football, where the (latent) states of the HMM serve for the underlying form of a player.

The Interplay of Goalkeepers and Penalty Takers Affects Their Chances of Success.

Research in penalty kicking has primarily focused on spatial decision making, while temporal decision making has largely been neglected, even though it is as critical for success. Temporal decision making concerns goalkeepers choosing when to initiate their jump to the ball during the penalty taker's run-up (i.e., jump early or wait long), and penalty takers deciding where to kick the ball, either prior to the run-up or after the goalkeeper has committed to one side. We analyzed penalty takers' and goalkeepers' behavior during penalty shoot-outs at FIFA World Cups and UEFA European Championships to scrutinize if temporal aspects of decision making have an impact on penalty kick success. Results indicate that the likelihood of a penalty kick being scored depends on the combination of penalty takers' and goalkeepers' temporal decision-making strategies. Hence, moving early more often seems fruitful for goalkeepers, while penalty takers should consider varying penalty kick strategy between attempts.

In-match penalty kick analysis of the 2009/10 to 2018/19 English Premier League competition

ABSTRACT The in match penalty kick may be a decisive event in a match, as well as an opportunity to progress in a knockout competition or ultimately the final standings of a competition. The aims of the current study were to conduct a video-based performance analysis of in-match penalty kicks in the English Premier League (EPL) between the 2009/10 and 2018/19 seasons to identify the relationship between selected situational (match location, match status and match period), technical (penalty taker’s footedness), and performance indicators (shot direction) and in-match penalty kick outcomes and directions. All the in-match penalty kicks (N = 952) that took place in the EPL were analysed using Nacsport video analysis software. In-match penalty kick direction, specifically vertical direction, significantly influenced in-match penalty kick outcomes (p < 0.01). Match period, score line, match location and footedness had no significant effect on in-match penalty kick outcomes or direction of the kick. The study revealed that in-match penalty kicks should be directed towards the top vertical zones of the goal area to optimise the opportunity for success of in-match penalty kicks. Importantly, the risk factor of aiming high and missing is lower than aiming low and being saved, as such; coaches and players should implement systematic penalty kick training programmes aimed at improving penalty kick placements and control into the top areas of the goal.