Penalty Shootouts Research Articles

Fairer Shootouts in Soccer: The (m, n) Rule

Summary Winning the coin toss at the end of a tied soccer game gives a team the right to choose whether to kick either first or second on all five rounds of penalty kicks, where each team is allowed one kick per round. There is considerable evidence that the right to make this choice, which is usually to kick first, gives a team a significant advantage. To make the outcome of a tied game fairer, we suggest a rule that handicaps the team that kicks first (A), requiring it to succeed on one more penalty kick than the team that kicks second (B). We call this the m − n rule and, more specifically, propose ( m , n ) = ( 5 , 4 ) : For A to win, they must successfully kick 5 goals before the end of the round in which B kicks its 4th; for B to win, it must succeed on 4 penalty kicks before A succeeds on 5. If both teams reach ( 5 , 4 ) on the same round—when they both kick successfully at ( 4 , 3 ) —then the game is decided by round-by-round “sudden death,” in which the winner is the first team to score in a subsequent round when the other team does not. We show that this rule is fair in tending to equalize the ability of each team to win a tied game in a penalty shootout. We also discuss a sequential rule that precludes the teams from reaching ( 5 , 4 ) at the same time, obviating the need for sudden death and extra rounds.

Incentives matter sometimes: On the differences between league and Cup football matches

Economic agents react to incentives, and this holds true for professional football teams as well. Double round-robin and single-match elimination represent two opposite competition regimes, with incentives varying distinctly between them. At the level of individual matches, a single defeat needs not be fatal under a double round-robin regime, unlike in a single-match elimination system. Utilizing data from Dutch professional football from the 2004/05 season to the 2022/23 season, we compare single-match elimination Cup matches with double round-robin league matches, focusing on stadium attendance, match results, and home advantage. Stadium attendance tends to be lower in Cup matches, although the gap narrows in later stages of the Cup tournament, and it eventually disappears. The home advantage is similar in Cup matches and league matches, but when Cup matches extend beyond regular time, the home advantage diminishes. In later stages of the Cup tournament, both during extra time and penalty shootouts, home advantage appears to be virtually absent.

Identifying Goalkeeper Movement Timing from Single-Camera Broadcast Footage through Pose Estimation: A Pilot Study

This study explores how open-source pose estimation can be utilized to identify goalkeeper dive initiation during soccer penalty kicks. The purpose of this study is to provide an accessible, low-cost heuristic methodology for identifying goalkeeper dive initiation. This study uses single-camera broadcast footage (1080 p resolution, 50 frames per second) of all 41 penalty shootout kicks attempted during the 2022 FIFA Men’s World Cup. We isolated each penalty kick and recorded the frames of goalkeeper dive initiation and flight. We then identified goalposts to create a homography matrix to account for camera movement and identified the goalkeeper’s skeletal keypoints through pose estimation. From these keypoints, we derived frontal plane kinematics for the torso and legs. We identified local extrema for each kinematic variable and isolated the last observed extrema prior to goalkeeper flight for each variable. Using OLS regression, we found that the last local extremum of the goalkeeper centroid’s y-value was the strongest predictor of labeled commitment to the dive side, with an R2 of 0.998 and a p-value of 0.00. The results of this research are preliminary but demonstrate the promise of pose estimation in identifying sport-specific action timing during live game play using a single camera.

Penalty shootouts and bitcoin trading

ABSTRACT Soccer is the most popular sport in the world, and bitcoin is a global asset. Penalty shootouts represent an important stage in a soccer match and generate an enormous amount of public interest and attention. Bitcoin trading experiences a significant drop in volume and volatility during penalty shootouts at major international soccer tournaments. After the conclusion of penalty shootouts, the intensity of bitcoin trading exhibits a swift and a strong rebound. Significant fluctuations in trading volume and volatility of bitcoin around penalty shootouts are primarily driven by the variation in number of trades rather than in trade size.

Analysing substitutions in recent World Cups and European Championships in male and female elite football - influence of new substitution rules.

Substitutions play a key role in modern football and can substantially affect the physical and overall performance of a team, and the recent substitution rule changes are worth investigating. This study explored the characteristics of substitutions, including different substitution rules, game results, sex, competition stages, tournaments and penalty shoot-outs success rates. We analysed data from a total of 3,738 substitutions from the last 10 years (2013-2023) of European Championships and World Cups, both men's and women's games. Non-parametric tests and chi-square tests were used for statistical analysis with the significance level set at p < 0.05. With the 5-substitution rule, 48% more substitutions occurred compared to the 3-substitution rule (4.26 ± 1.07 vs. 2.87 ± 0.43, p < 0.05) with a slight increase in the average substitution time (70.6 ± 14.3 vs. 69.2 ± 14.6 min, p < 0.05), and 10% more substitutions in the men's game compared to the women's game (p < 0.05). The timing of the first substitution was slightly different in the knock-out stage compared to group stage (59.8 ± 14.7 vs. 57.2 ± 13.3 min, p < 0.05), and the timing for the winning team and drawing team was later than for the losing team (p < 0.05). A total of 13.2% goals were scored by substitutes, with no significant difference between the 5-substitution rule (15.9%) vs the 3-substition rule (12.5%) (p > 0.05). Interestingly, substitute players had a lower success rate in penalty shoot-out compared to starters (61 vs. 74%, p < 0.05). Additionally, substitute player goal scorers entered the pitch later (p < 0.05) in male games compared to female games and in knock-out stage games compared to group games. This study highlights the importance of substitution rules and timing in modern elite football matches. The timing of the first substitution, introduction of substitutes in knock-out stages, and a lower success rate of substitute players in penalty shoot-outs are crucial factors to consider. Coaches can use this information to make strategic substitution decisions to improve team performance.

Exploring the association of mindfulness, confidence, competitive state anxiety, and attention control in soccer penalty shootouts.

Penalty shootouts are a pivotal factor influencing outcomes in soccer matches. Soccer players face the challenge of overcoming physical fatigue and psychological pressure when taking penalty kicks. Instances of low confidence and competitive state anxiety during matches exacerbate the detrimental impact on attention control, particularly in non-target defined features, leading to suboptimal performance during penalty kicks. This cross-sectional survey investigates the relationship between mindfulness and attention control. Convenient sampling was employed to gather a sample of 266 soccer players from sports teams and training bases in Central and South China who had participated in city-level or higher-level competitions. A structural equation model, created using AMOS 26, was employed for hypotheses validation. Findings reveal a positive correlation between mindfulness and confidence, and a negative correlation between mindfulness and competitive state anxiety. Additionally, confidence positively associates with attention control, while competitive state anxiety shows a negative relationship with attention control. Confidence and competitive state anxiety also function as mediators in the correlation between mindfulness and attention control. To elaborate, soccer penalty kickers with heightened mindfulness demonstrate increased confidence levels, reduced competitive state anxiety, and improved attention control. Mindfulness training positively influences attention control during penalty kicks for soccer players. To boost players' confidence, alleviate competitive state anxiety, and enhance their performance during penalty shootouts, it is recommended that governments increase investment in mindfulness training and talent development. Coaches should enhance their understanding of mindfulness training mechanisms, and athletes themselves should prioritize mindfulness training.

Comparison of goalscoring patterns between the 2018 and 2022 FIFA World Cups.

The main aim of this study was to compare goal scoring patterns between the two most recent FIFA World CupTM (WC) tournaments: Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022. Match performance data were extracted using the ProVision database (StatsPerform, Chicago, USA). Variables used to analyse goals (not including penalty shootout goals) included the match period in which these were scored, the type of action and different types of play, body part used, defensive pressure, possession duration and expected goals (xG) values. A Chi-square test was used to compare qualitative variables across competitions while quantitative variables were compared using a nonparametric Mann-Whitney U-test for independent samples. Altogether, 169 goals were scored in WC 2018 vs. 172 goals in WC 2022. No differences occurred across competitions for the period in which goals were scored. In both tournaments the majority was scored in the second-half and towards the end of play. Significant differences were observed for the type of action, type of play and body part used prior to scoring a goal (p < .05). These differences can be explained by the record number of own goals and goals scored from set-pieces in 2018 and an increase in goals scored from open-play (from positional attacks notably) in 2022. Analysis of open-play situations showed that teams recorded a higher xG value and converted more of their chances (xG = 122.8 vs. 128 goals, xG difference = +5.2) in 2022 thus were more efficient compared with 2018. In sum, goal scoring patterns largely differed between the two most recent World Cup tournaments.

Efeitos da atuação do árbitro assistente de vídeo na Copa do Mundo FIFA® 2018

The present study aimed to verify the performance of the video assistant referee at the 2018 FIFA World Cup and compare it with the 2010 and 2014 editions. The initial hypothesis is that the use of the video assistant referee modifies the average of penalties, offsides, fouls and cards. A documentary analysis of the arbitration was carried out, in a descriptive study, through the collection of disciplinary data from the 2010, 2014 and 2018 FIFA World Cups. To compare the data from the 2010 and 2014 World Cups with 2018, initially a Kolmogorov-Smirnov normality test was performed. After verifying the normal distribution of the data, the one-way ANOVA test was used to compare data between the editions of the FIFA World Cup®. The significance level adopted was p &lt; 0.05. It was verified that in the 2018 World Cup, the most reviewed bids by VAR were penalties, followed by offsides. When comparing the data from the 2010 and 2014 World Cups with 2018, it was verified that there were more penalties and a lower number of fouls, red cards and offsides in 2018. Therefore, it is concluded that VAR mainly reviewed the penalty shootouts, changing the average of fouls, red cards, penalties and offsides scored in the 2018 World Cup, compared to 2010 and 2014.

SELF-TALK ON SPORT PERFORMANCE AND SELECTED PSYCHOLOGICAL VARIABLES: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

Self-talk is a psychological skill training that improves motor performance and sports skills among athletes. Previous research has indicated differences between motivational self-talk and instructional self-talk in sports performance. However, there is a lack of attention paid to the effectiveness of self-talk toward psychological barriers. Therefore, the primary aim of this study was to examine past studies on the effect of self-talk on sports performance and to select psychological variables among athletes. Through a systematic review, we analysed the scientific production concerning the sports psychology of self-talk toward athletes. The process review was conducted by the PRISMA protocol and a search performed by using online data sources (Scopus, Web of Science, and Semantic Scholar), as well as, conference proceedings of possibly related papers. The search was limited to articles published within ten years and written in English. A total of 38 studies were analysed. Referring to a total of 38 studies (nine articles focused on the self-talk questionnaire, six articles on motivational self-talk, six articles on instructional studies, and 17 articles focused on both motivational self-talk). Based on this, only 9 studies satisfied the eligibility criteria related to sports performance and psychological effects. As a result, a sample of 9 studies was subjected to systematic quality analysis. The analysis results showed that negative self-talk decreases athletes’ performance. In addition, there is inconsistent evidence on the effect of motivational and instructional self-talk based on specific sports. Based on this review, instructional self-talk is beneficial for fine skills (free-throw basketball and penalty shoot-out), and motivational self-talk is effective for gross skill (running). Thus, it can be concluded that both motivational and instructional self-talk play an important role in enhancing motor performance.

About the “Away Goals Rule” in Association Football. Does Scrapping the Rule Increase the Fairness of the Game?

The present study analyzes all major international football tournaments organized by UEFA and CONMEBOL during a period of 30 years to assess the impact of the away goals rule (AGR). The study takes advantage of natural experiment given by the differentiated application of the AGR by both confederations, in order to assess the efficacy and the consequences of the rule in terms of both the total amount of goals being scored (the original intention of the rule) and the teams that progressed onto the next stages. The results show that the AGR seems to have failed to fulfill its original goal of increasing both scoring by teams playing away and scoring in general. The AGR is found to have a significant impact favoring the chances of the team starting the series at home. However, it still does not translate into a higher probability of progressing onto the next stage than the team closing the series at home. Closing the series at home has an intrinsic advantage, which is only countered, although not completely, by the impact of the AGR. Regarding tiebreakers, we observe that closing the series at home has a positive impact no matter whether overtimes with AGR or penalty shootouts are used as tiebreakers. However, playing an overtime, when no AGR is set in place has a determining influence favoring the team closing the series at home.

Penalty Shootouts: Are Exstimates on the Spot?

Abstract James Jackson analyses England's painful defeat against Italy in the 2020 Euros. Could a more statistically rigorous approach to picking penalty takers have led to a different result?

“They Couldn’t Win and Didn’t Want to Lose”: The 1982 Inter-District Championship Final (Fiji Soccer)

In this article, we review one iconic match in Fiji soccer history, the 1982 Inter-District Championship Final, when bad light stopped play after ten kicks each in the penalty shootout with penalty goals tied at 6–6. In interviews with ex-administrators and players from the match, we learn that Ba reneged upon a “gentlemen’s agreement,” between the two team presidents, not to turn up for any replay match scheduled for outside of Nadi, the original venue. Ba turned up at the replay venue and claimed the trophy much to the disgust of Nadi supporters and officials. Because the Indo-Fijian community “controls” coaching and administrative positions in soccer, it is able to fashion and refashion how Indigenous Fijian men’s bodies are presented and administered within the sport. Significantly, race and class combine to make it difficult for Indigenous ex-players to move into coaching and administrative positions in soccer postretirement.

Penalty kicks as cross-fertilization: On the economic psychology of sports

We review some topics in which soccer penalty kicks are related to phenomena in game theory, decision making and psychology. In particular, we discuss the game theoretic analysis of the kicker's and goalkeeper's behavior and its relation to the concept of mixed strategy Nash Equilibrium. The main idea is that both players should not follow a predictable strategy, and therefore should choose different strategies over time. We also review the action bias of goalkeepers in penalty kicks, which results in them almost always jumping to one of the sides although staying in the goal's center is in fact a good strategy given the empirical distribution of kicks. We then turn to the order effect in penalty shootouts, and the debate to what extent kicking first gives the team an advantage in the shootout. These topics illustrate the opportunities offered by interdisciplinary research that combines sports with social sciences such as economics and psychology. While this interdisciplinary literature has grown significantly in recent years, research opportunities in this area abound and we hope that this article will encourage the readers to contribute to it.

Effects of psychological pressure on first‐mover advantage in competitive environments: Evidence from penalty shootouts

AbstractIn this paper, we aim to determine the importance of psychological pressure on performance in sequential tournaments. We make use of penalty shootouts in soccer and test the presence of first‐mover advantage. Shootouts in soccer is a formidable framework because it is a natural experiment where teams compete in a sequence whose order is determined by the random outcome of a coin toss. Using data from all 663 penalty shootouts in all major competitions since first implemented in 1970, we fail to identify statistically significant differences in winning probabilities for teams kicking first or second in the shootout sequence.

Development of the Effect of Video Assistant Referee Application on Football Parameters

The Video Assistant Referee (VAR) application is a technological development that gives referees the chance to review their critical decisions. The current study aimed to determine the effect of the VAR system in international football organizations on the game over the years. The sample of the study consists of 115 football matches, specifically 64 matches played in the 2018 FIFA World Cup and 51 matches played in the 2020 European Football Championship. In the competitions handled, the number of goals, the number of yellow cards, the number of red cards, the first half time, the second half time, the total match time, the number of penalties and the number of offsides were examined. The Mann–Whitney U test was used to compare two independent groups. As a result, in the 2020 European Football Championship, there was a decrease in the second half time (p = 0.01) and total match time (p = 0.01), and a significant increase in the number of offsides (p = 0.03) compared to the 2018 FIFA World Cup. On the other hand, there was no significant difference between the two tournaments in the variables of number of goals, number of yellow cards, number of red cards, half time and penalty shootout (p &gt; 0.05). In light of the data obtained, it can be said that the effect of the VAR system on the spirit of the game will decrease as the share of the VAR system in the pauses during the competition decreases over the years. The data revealed in the study may be a clue to explaining why the effect of the VAR system on game dynamics and game spirit has decreased over the years. Therefore, the concerns of football stakeholders about the effects of the system on the game may gradually decrease with the arrangements made for VAR.

Fairness in penalty shootouts: Is it worth using dynamic sequences?

ABSTRACT The sequence of moves in a dynamic team tournament may distort the ex-ante winning probabilities and harm efficiency. This paper compares seven soccer penalty shootout rules that determine the kicking order, from a theoretical perspective. Their fairness is evaluated in a reasonable model of First Mover Advantage. We also discuss the probability of reaching the sudden death stage. In the case of stationary scoring probabilities, dynamic mechanisms are not better than static rules. However, it is worth compensating the second-mover by making it the first-mover in the sudden death stage. Our work has the potential to impact decision-makers who can guarantee fairer outcomes in dynamic tournaments by a carefully chosen sequence of actions.

Evaluation of Pressure Elements in the Penalty Kicks

Background: A penalty kick in football is one of the most important rules that directly affect the score of the match. Penalty kicks have always been the focus of attention in terms of both the result and the shot. Aim: The aim of this study is to determine whether the one who takes the penalty or saves the penalty is more effective and to determine whether the players who use the penalty show a tendency in a certain direction. Methods: In this study, a detailed analysis of penalty shootouts with the 10-year data of the Turkish Super League was made. SPSS.22 package program was used in statistical analyses. Analyses of penalty kicks were compared with the Chi-square test and the level of significance was taken as 0,05 in all tests. Results: According to the results of the analysis, goalkeepers guessed correctly 46% of the direction where the ball passed in all penalties (r=0.74; p=0.000). 52% of left-footed penalty takers shot to the left, and 46.9% of right-footed penalty takers to the right. There was no statistical difference between the direction where the ball was thrown, and the foot used by the penalty kicker (p&gt;0.05). Conclusion: In the analysis made with 10-year data, it has been determined that the players do not tend to a certain direction when using penalties. Keywords: Penalty kick; football; penalty zone; Turkish Super League; penalty direction

Detecting patterns in the behaviour of goalkeepers and kickers in the penalty shootout: a between-gender comparison among score situations

ABSTRACT There is plenty of research on penalty kicking in men's soccer, with a focus on either the goalkeeper or the penalty taker. Yet women's soccer and their playing behaviour are under-represented in research. The current study was designed to examine gender differences in the choice patterns of expert kickers and goalkeepers during penalty shooting in relation to the previously documented right-oriented bias. Using videos of penalties from shootouts at the highest level of men's and women's international soccer, we recorded the goalkeeper's dive direction and accurately measured the location of the ball as it crossed the goal line. We created a map of all kicks and their outcomes (goal, no goal, off-target). Our mapping procedure allowed us to use alternative definitions for the goal centre width and to extract the corresponding kick distribution between right, centre and left. In addition to analysing the potential right-oriented bias in women goalies’ behaviour, we also analysed the joint distribution of kickers’ and goalkeepers’ choices for each score situation (behind, tied, or ahead). Our findings indicate that the goalkeepers’ general tendency was to dive more often to the right, while the kickers’ tendency was to shoot to the right of the goalies. Moreover, this latter tendency of kicking to the goalies’ right was found to be stronger among the female kickers. Finally, our analysis refutes the claim that goalkeepers exhibit a detrimental right-oriented bias, with this conclusion being even stronger among female goalies.

Rule Changes to Increase Shared Medal Winning at the Olympics.

One of the most inspirational moments of the Tokyo Olympics was the sharing of the gold medal in the men's high jump. Rule changes that allow more medal sharing when athletes and teams are effectively equal in ability would improve the entertainment value of the Olympics, reward more athletes for their years of dedication to sport, and augment the Olympic ideal of fair play. Medals in all events are decided by a time, distance or points score in a final. When scores differ by ~0.1 or less of the variability in the score between competitions, the athlete or team with the better score would obtain a better score on average in only 52% of subsequent competitions, representing medals determined effectively by a coin toss. We have therefore quantified the medal sharing at the Tokyo Olympics that would have occurred if medals had been shared with such score differences (converted to rounded times or distances separating athletes in a final) in events with known variability between competitions (canoeing, kayaking, rowing, swimming, track and field events). In these events, 10%, 14% and 14% respectively of gold, silver and bronze medals would have been shared. The men's high jump would have produced three golds. Most of the sharing (68%) would have occurred with male athletes, presumably because greater depth of competition with males results in smaller differences between athletes at the highest level. The variability of performance scores in other events between competitions would need researching to establish maximum score differences for medal sharing in these events. For all events, the rule changes should exclude counting back, penalty shoot-outs, tie-breakers and any other methods for avoiding ties in the final. The acceptability of these rule changes to athletes, coaches and spectators (for example, in terms of separation of the athletes at the finishing line) would also need to be investigated.

English goalkeepers are not responsible for England\u2019s poor performance in penalty shootouts in the past

Scrutinizing public opinion is one of the central goals of science as the divergence between public opinion and scientific evidence can have negative consequences. The present study aims to further investigate the alleged English ‘penalty curse’ and determine if it can be linked to the prevalent stereotype of the ‘English goalkeeper problem’. We analyzed a large sample of 2379 penalty kicks that 629 different goalkeepers faced in World Cups and European Championships, as well as in the Champions and Europa League by comparing the goalkeeper success rates of different nations by fitting a generalized linear model (binomial regression) to the data. However, the results do not reveal meaningful differences between the success rates (on average 22.23%). Consequently, we conclude that English goalkeepers are not responsible for England’s poor performance in penalties in the past as they perform as well as goalkeepers from other nations and, in turn, provide a counterargument to the widespread stereotype that ‘England has a goalkeeper problem’.