Models of posttransplant mortality are common. They are used frequently: for prognostic information for providers and families, benchmarking of individual center results, and public reporting of those results. Each model or score has strengths and weaknesses that are predominantly determined by the data source and the methodology. The score presented in this issue of The Annals of Thoracic Surgery by O’Connor and colleagues [1O'Connor M.J. Glatz A.C. Rossano J.W. et al.Cumulative effect of preoperative risk factors on mortality after pediatric heart transplantation.Ann Thorac Surg. 2018; 106: 561-567Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Scopus (6) Google Scholar] is paradigmatic of both the potential and the limitations of a single-center retrospective study. By identifying a series of risk factors unavailable to larger datasets, it demonstrates how the use of large dataset models of posttransplant mortality has the potential to dissuade centers from transplanting high-risk pediatric patients. Most prior models and scores predicting posttransplant mortality in children have been developed using large datasets, commonly either the Pediatric Heart Transplant Study or the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network/United Network for Organ Sharing data [2Almond C.S. Gauvreau K. Canter C.E. Rajagopal S.K. Piercey G.E. Singh T.P. A risk-prediction model for in-hospital mortality after heart transplantation in US children.Am J Transplant. 2012; 12: 1240-1248Crossref PubMed Scopus (66) Google Scholar, 3Schumacher K.R. Almond C. Singh T.P. et al.Predicting graft loss by 1 year in pediatric heart transplantation candidates: an analysis of the Pediatric Heart Transplant Study database.Circulation. 2015; 131: 890-898Crossref PubMed Scopus (49) Google Scholar, 4Davies R.R. Russo M.J. Mital S. et al.Predicting survival among high-risk pediatric cardiac transplant recipients: an analysis of the United Network for Organ Sharing database.J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg. 2008; 135 (155.e1–2): 147-155Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (65) Google Scholar]. Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network/United Network for Organ Sharing data underlie the risk prediction models utilized by the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients to develop the publicly available program-specific reports (PSRs) evaluating individual center performance. These large-dataset models have the advantage of large sample sizes from multiple centers, but often lack relevant clinical information. Using a single-center retrospective analysis, O’Connor and colleagues [1O'Connor M.J. Glatz A.C. Rossano J.W. et al.Cumulative effect of preoperative risk factors on mortality after pediatric heart transplantation.Ann Thorac Surg. 2018; 106: 561-567Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Scopus (6) Google Scholar] have identified several risk factors for posttransplant mortality that are not available in larger datasets, including single ventricle congenital heart disease, pulmonary vein stenosis, a history of greater than or equal to 4 prior sternotomies, and referral from another cardiac surgical center. Unfortunately, the methodology limits the practical applicability of the resultant score: the score is unvalidated, it suffers from the biases of the center (eg, there was only a single patient with renal insufficiency), and the increase in mortality occurred predominantly among patients with 4 or 5 risk factors (78% versus 7% to 14% in those with 0 to 3 risk factors). As the authors note, further study and validation of the score is required. However, the inclusion of these granular and specific clinical risk factors does point to the limitations of the current system of public reporting and program monitoring. Accurate models require accounting for all relevant risk models. The Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients models used in generating PSRs fail to account for many factors that this study and others suggest are associated with high post-transplant mortality: pulmonary vein stenosis, specific congenital diagnoses, a high number of prior sternotomies, and other anatomic abnormalities. When PSRs and similar modeling are used for public reporting, regulatory oversight, and insurance contracting, centers become incentivized to avoid transplanting candidates whose risk factors are not accounted for in the modeling. Thus, while the specific score developed by O’Connor and colleagues [1O'Connor M.J. Glatz A.C. Rossano J.W. et al.Cumulative effect of preoperative risk factors on mortality after pediatric heart transplantation.Ann Thorac Surg. 2018; 106: 561-567Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Scopus (6) Google Scholar] may have limited wider applicability, the identification of these granular risk factors and their inclusion in modeling is critical both to maximizing individual outcomes and to maintaining access to transplantation among high-risk patients. Cumulative Effect of Preoperative Risk Factors on Mortality After Pediatric Heart TransplantationThe Annals of Thoracic SurgeryVol. 106Issue 2PreviewRisk assessment in heart transplantation is critical for candidate selection, but current models inadequately assess individual risk of postoperative mortality. We sought to identify risk factors and develop a scoring system to predict mortality after heart transplantation in children. Full-Text PDF
Read full abstract