Pedestrian Fatality Risk Research Articles

Analyzing Pedestrian Fatality Risk in a Developing Country: Empirical Assessment with Insights from Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Analyzing Pedestrian Fatality Risk in a Developing Country: Empirical Assessment with Insights from Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Risk Factors and Inequities in Transportation Injury and Mortality in the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohorts (CanCHECs).

Road traffic injury contributes substantially to morbidity and mortality. Canada stands out among developed countries in not conducting a national household travel survey, leading to a dearth of national transportation mode data and risk calculations that have appropriate denominators. Since traffic injuries are specific to the mode of travel used, these risk calculations should consider travel mode. Census data on mode of commute is one of the few sources of these data for persons aged 15 and over. This study leveraged a national data linkage cohort, the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohorts, that connects census sociodemographic and commute mode data with records of deaths and hospitalizations, enabling assessment of road traffic injury associations by indicators of mode of travel (commuter mode). We examined longitudinal (1996-2019) bicyclist, pedestrian, and motor vehicle occupant injury and fatality risk in the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohorts by commuter mode and sociodemographic characteristics using Cox proportional hazards models within the working adult population. We estimated positive associations between commute mode and same mode injury and fatality, particularly for bicycle commuters (hazard ratios for bicycling injury was 9.1 and for bicycling fatality was 11). Low-income populations and Indigenous people had increased injury risk across all modes. This study shows inequities in transportation injury risk in Canada and underscores the importance of adjusting for mode of travel when examining differences between population groups.

Priority-Setting Methodology of Qualitative and Quantitative Analyses for Pedestrian Road Construction: Case Study of a National Highway in South Korea

This study aimed to propose a priority-setting methodology for the construction of pedestrian roads using a set of evaluation methods distinguished from the conventional system using social overhead capital(SOC) evaluation with a focus on economic analysis. Four evaluation indicators were selected in this study: pedestrian fatality risk, surrounding infrastructure, potential pedestrian demand, and manager’s opinion, with a total of 12 attributes across the indicators. Each attribute was designed to allow a quantitative or qualitative evaluation and had a method of estimating and scoring each attribute for set criteria. Regarding the weighting of evaluation indicators, the Analytic Hierarchy Process was applied as the most widely used method in multi-criteria decision making. The highest weightage was placed on pedestrian fatality risk and surrounding infrastructure among the evaluation indicators and traffic accidents of pedestrian fatality risk among the attributes. To determine the practical application of the proposed methodology, a single-site evaluation was conducted, followed by 385 sites in a similar manner for priority setting. The methodology of priority setting for pedestrian roads proposed in this study can be applied to the priority setting for pedestrian roads, smaller-scale SOC projects including bicycle roads.

What affects pedestrian crossing difficulty at urban intersections in a developing country?

In developing countries, road traffic crashes involving pedestrians have become a foremost concern. At present, road safety assessment plans and selection of interventions are primarily restricted to traditional approaches that depend on the investigations of historical crash data. However, in developing countries such as India, the availability, consistency, and accuracy of crash data are major concerns. In contrast, proactive approaches such as studying road users' risk perception have emerged as a substitute method of examining potential risk factors. An individual's risk perception offers vital information on probable crash risk, which may be beneficial in detecting high-risk locations and major causes of crashes. Since the pedestrian fatality risk is not uniform across the urban road network level, it may be expected that pedestrians' perceived risk measured in terms of “crossing difficulty” would also vary across the sites. In this perspective, the present paper establishes a mathematical association between the pedestrians' perceived “crossing difficulty” and actual crashes. The model outcome confirms that pedestrians' perceived crossing difficulty is a good surrogate of fatal pedestrian crashes at the intersection level in Kolkata City, India. Subsequently, to examine the impact of traffic exposures, road infrastructure, land use, spatial factors, and pedestrian-level attributes on pedestrians' “crossing difficulty”; a set of Ordered Logit models are developed. The model outcomes show that high vehicle and pedestrian volume, vehicular speed, absence of designated bus stop, the presence of inaccessible pedestrian crosswalk, on-street parking, lack of signalized control (for both vehicle and pedestrian), inadequate sight distance, land use pattern, slum population, pedestrian-vehicular post encroachment time, waiting time before crossing, road width, and absence of police enforcement at an intersection significantly and positively increase pedestrian's crossing difficulty at urban intersections. To end, the model findings are advantageously utilized to develop a set of countermeasures across 3E's of road safety.

Pedestrian fatality risk as a function of tram impact speed

Abstract The objective of the presented research-work was to develop a model to describe the risk of fatal accident involving tram and pedestrian. This study extends research concerning relationships between the “impact speed” and probability of pedestrian death in case of tram accident. Over 400 “tram-pedestrian” accidents were analyzed. Logistic regression analysis was used in these studies. The main objective of the research is to compare the risk of fatal accidents when pedestrians are struck by passenger cars and trams. GPS system from trams is used to analyze correlation between the tram speed and different conditions along the public transport stop areas (e.g. traffic signals, priority, and platforms localization). The results show that the fatal risk of hitting pedestrians by a tram running at a speed of 50 km/h is two and a half times greater than that by a car. Research clearly proves that comparing to car impact speed, there is much higher probability of death when pedestrian is hit by a tram running at a speed of 30 km/h – almost 40% (compared to 5% when hit by car). There are even cases of deaths with a very low speed of tram (5–10 km/h).

A new model to estimate pedestrian deaths from speed-related interventions

Objective The S-shaped function of probability of pedestrian fatality with respect to impact speed of vehicle is well known in road safety literature. However, the implication of this evidence for changes in speed for a population of drivers has not been explored. Method An integrated model has been developed to estimate pedestrian fatalities resulting from changes in speed of traffic. The model uses combined relative risks of injury crash rate of drivers and probability of pedestrian fatality resulting from an injury crash. Two approaches have been used—an individual approach using probability distribution of speed, and an aggregate approach, using only mean speed. The application of the model has been demonstrated using four case studies with speed of traffic before and after an intervention. Results It is found that even small reductions in mean speed translate to large reductions in pedestrian fatalities. The risk contributed by speeding vehicles is highly disproportionate to their share in vehicle population. In a case study from Delhi (India), in which at-grade junction was replaced with a grade-separated junction, 74% of risk of pedestrian fatalities is contributed by less than 5% speeding vehicles (>50km/h). Changes in mean speed is a poor indicator of changes in injury risk if the standard deviation of the distribution also changes significantly. A surprising finding was that large variation in the S-shape of pedestrian fatality risk function has relatively small effects on overall results. Conclusions A new model has been developed to estimate changes in pedestrian fatalities resulting from changes in traffic speed. The application of the model using four speed-related interventions emphasize that deterrence of a small proportion of drivers using speed enforcement can have large implications for pedestrian safety.

Modelling bus-pedestrian crash severity in the state of Victoria, Australia

Understanding the relationship between bus-pedestrian crash severity and factors contributing to such crashes is important. However, there exists a dearth of research on the factors affecting bus-pedestrian crash severity. This study aims to fulfil this gap by investigating the factors affecting the severity of pedestrian injuries. A data set of bus-pedestrian crashes in the State of Victoria, Australia was analysed over the period of 2006 − 2019. Through the results of association rule discovery method, the factors that increase the risk of pedestrian fatality are darkness, pedestrian walking on carriageway with traffic, intersections, high speed zone, old pedestrian, young bus driver and weekend holidays. Furthermore, co-occurrence of factors that increase the risk of a pedestrian fatality were extracted. To reduce the injuries of bus-pedestrian crashes, we recommend improving the light conditions, reducing the jaywalking behaviour of pedestrians, implementing speed bumps in high speed zones and installing pedestrian detection systems on buses. 13 years of bus-pedestrian crashes in Victoria, Australia was analyzed. Association rules discovery was used for modeling pedestrian fatality. Darkness, pedestrian movement, zone speed and age effect the rate of fatality. Pattern of pedestrian fatality in collision with bus was extracted.

Effects of speed display signs on driving speed at pedestrian crossings on collector streets

This study was designed to evaluate the short- and long-term effects of speed display signs on driving speed at pedestrian crossings in a low-speed (40 km/h) urban environment. Driving speeds were compared 1 week before installation, after installation (1 week; 1 month; 3 months; 5 months) and 1 week after removal. The main results showed that the speed displays decreased the mean speed by 0.5–2.9 km/h, which translates to a 4–22% drop in pedestrian fatality risk. Furthermore, there was a drop in the proportion of speeding vehicles and approaching speed of individual vehicles. The decrease in speed persisted over time, suggesting that speed displays may reduce speeds in the long term. In conclusion, installing speed displays at pedestrian crossings on collector streets reduces driving speeds and could contribute to the safety of pedestrians.

Impact of Road Infrastructure Land Use and Traffic Operational Characteristics on Pedestrian Fatality Risk: A Case Study of Kolkata, India

Pedestrian safety in urban India is an issue of growing concern. While an extensive body of literature is available on the identification of elements related to the pedestrian’s risk, the studies are mainly conducted in urban areas of developed countries, where the condition of infrastructure, built environment, road user’s behavior and perception are very different from Indian cities. As a result, findings from these studies may only be partially applicable to the cities of developing countries such as India. The present study makes an attempt to fill the gap by analyzing historical crash records obtained from Kolkata police and identifies the hazardous corridors and network locations posing the highest risk to the pedestrian. Subsequently, the binary logistic regression models are developed to identify the risk factors associated with road infrastructure, land use, and traffic operational characteristics. Based on the statistical assessment carried out in this study, there is evidence that factors such as road width, land use type, the absence of designated bus stop facility, inadequate sight distance, average daily traffic and pedestrian volume, and pedestrian–vehicular interaction considerably affect pedestrian safety at the intersections. On the other hand, road width, land use type, inadequate sight distance, the absence of designated bus stop facilities significantly influence pedestrian safety at midblock road segments. The knowledge of the risk factors specific to a location on the road network is helpful for incorporation and/or modification of the particular planning and design elements to reduce risk.

Factors related to the risk of pedestrian fatality after a crash in Spain, 1993–2013

IntroductionThe aim of this study was to quantify the magnitude of association between pedestrian fatalities during the first 24 h after a crash and pedestrian-, driver-, vehicle- and environment-related characteristics in Spain from 1993 to 2013. MethodsData were analyzed for all 203,622 traffic crashes involving a pedestrian and a motor vehicle recorded in the Spanish Registry of Road Crashes with Victims. After multiple imputation for missing values, crude (CMRR) and adjusted mortality rate ratios (AMRR) were obtained for each variable with Poisson regression models. ResultsPedestrian risk of death after a crash increased nearly exponentially with pedestrian age. Male sex, committing an infraction and having a physical defect were also associated with a higher risk of death (AMRR 1.27, 95%CI 1.17–1.37 for physical defect). Regarding driver-related factors associated with pedestrian fatalities, visual defects (AMRR 1.21, 95%CI 1.08–1.37) and the commission of a speed infraction (AMRR 2.59, 95%CI 2.43–2.76) increased the risk. Heavy vehicles (trucks, vans, buses) and the presence of passengers were also associated with a higher risk of pedestrian death. The risk of pedestrian death was lower for crashes that occurred between 12:00 and 14:00, in good light conditions, at intersections, and when the pedestrian was on a sidewalk. Risk was higher in crashes in rural areas with fewer than 5000 inhabitants. ConclusionsWe identified several factors strongly associated with the risk of pedestrian fatality; some of these factors are analyzed here for the first time. This knowledge is potentially useful in the design and prioritization of measures intended to increase pedestrian safety.

Evaluation of Pedestrian Satisfaction Level at Signalized intersections in Perspective of Pedestrian Fatality Risk: an Experience in Kolkata City, India

Evaluation of Pedestrian Satisfaction Level at Signalized intersections in Perspective of Pedestrian Fatality Risk: an Experience in Kolkata City, India

Analyzing Pedestrian Fatality Risk in Accidents at Mid-Blocks

Objective: Pedestrian safety is considered as one of the greatest concerns, especially for developing countries. In the year of 2015, about 48% pedestrian accidents with 56% fatalities occurred at mid-blocks in Beijing. Since the high frequency and fatality risk, this study focused on pedestrian accidents taking place at mid-blocks and aimed at identifying significant factors. Methods: Based on total 10,948 crash records, a binary logit model was established to explore the impact of various factors on the probability of pedestrian’s death. Furthermore, first-degree interaction effects were introduced into the basic model. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used to assess the model performance. Odds ratio was calculated for categorical variables to compare significant accident conditions with the conference level. Variables within consideration in this study included weather, area type, road type, speed limit, pedestrian location, lighting condition, vehicle type, pedestrian gender and pedestrian age. Results: The calibration results of the model show that the increased fatality chances of an accident at mid-blocks are associated with normal weather, rural area, two-way divided road, crossing elsewhere in carriageway, darkness (especially for no street lighting), light vehicle, large vehicle and male pedestrian. With road speed limit increasing by 10 km/h, the probability of death accordingly increases by 46%. Older victims have higher chances of being killed in a crash. Moreover, three interaction effects are found significant: rural area and two-way divided, rural area and crossing elsewhere as well as speed limit and pedestrian age. Conclusions: This study has analyzed police accident data and identified factors significant to the death probability of pedestrians in accidents occurred at mid-blocks. Recommendations and improving measures were proposed correspondingly. Behaviors of different road users at mid-blocks should be taken into account in the future research.

The effects of roadway and built environment characteristics on pedestrian fatality risk: A national assessment at the neighborhood scale

Characteristics of the transportation system and built environment contribute to pedestrian fatality risks, including vehicular traffic and land-use characteristics associated with higher pedestrian activity. We combined data from FHWA, NHTSA, EPA, and the Census Bureau and performed regression modeling to explore associations between transportation system and built environment characteristics and pedestrian fatalities between 2012 and 2016 at the Census tract scale across the United States. In urban tracts, we found especially strong associations between traffic on non-access-controlled principal arterial and minor arterial roadways and pedestrian fatalities (0.91 and 0.68 additional annual pedestrian fatalities per 100,000 persons per 10,000 VMT/mi2 increase in traffic density, respectively). In both urban and rural tracts, we also found strong associations between employment density in the retail sector and pedestrian fatalities. Finally, we compared our model to the High Injury Network in Los Angeles, CA. Nearly half (43%) of observed fatalities were identified by both methods, while some fatalities were identified by only one (19% by our model and 23% by the High Injury Network). This work shows that traffic on certain roadway facility types and employment in certain sectors have especially strong associations with pedestrian fatality risk. More broadly, we illustrate how leveraging cross-disciplinary data in novel ways can support prospective, risk-based assessments of pedestrian fatality risks and support integrated and systemic approaches to transportation safety.

Comparison of US metropolitan region pedestrian and bicyclist fatality rates

Annual US pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities involving motor vehicles have each increased by 30% in just six years, reaching their highest levels in two decades. To provide information to reverse this trend, we quantified pedestrian and bicyclist fatality rates in 46 of the largest US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) during two five-year time periods: 1999–2003 and 2007–2011. We divided the annual average number of pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities during 1999–2003 from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System by the annual estimates of pedestrian and bicycle trips, kilometers traveled, and minutes traveled from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the annual average number of fatalities from 2007 to 2011 by similar estimates from the 2009 NHTS. The five most dangerous regions for walking during 2007–2011 averaged 262 pedestrian fatalities per billion trips while the five safest averaged 49 pedestrian fatalities per billion trips. The five most dangerous regions for bicycling averaged 458 bicyclist fatalities per billion trips while the five safest averaged 75 bicyclist fatalities per billion trips. Random-effects meta-analysis identified eight metropolitan regions as outliers with low pedestrian fatality rates, six with high pedestrian fatality rates, one with a low bicyclist fatality rate, and five with high bicyclist fatality rates. MSAs with low pedestrian and bicycle fatality rates tended to have central cities recognized as Walk Friendly Communities and Bicycle Friendly Communities for investing in pedestrian and bicycle projects and programs. Random-effects meta-regression showed that certain socioeconomic characteristics and high pedestrian and bicyclist mode shares were associated with lower MSA fatality rates. Results suggest that pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure and safety programs should be complemented with strategies to increase walking and bicycling. In particular, safety initiatives should be honed to reduce pedestrian and bicyclist fatality risk in immigrant communities and to make pedestrian travel safer for the growing senior-age population.

COMMUNITY PREVENTION STRATEGIES FOR SPEED REDUCTION IN SCHOOL ZONES: WHAT ARE THE REAL IMPACTS?

BACKGROUND: Pedestrian injuries are responsible for most transport related fatalities among children, emphasizing the importance of implementing good practices to improve child pedestrian safety. Pedestrian fatality risk is directly related to speed. Accidents involving a car traveling more than 40 km/h have drastically a higher risk of death. The city of Sherbrooke and various stakeholders build up community-wide strategies based upon engineering, enforcement, advocacy and education to reduce vehicle speed in school zones to improve pedestrian safety, reduce injuries severity and promote active transport. OBJECTIVES: To compare the average vehicle speeds in school zones between school hours (7am-5pm, Monday to Friday) and the rest of the week (evenings, nights and weekend). DESIGN/METHODS: A cross-sectional study to measure vehicle speeds was performed during 26 complete days, in October and November 2015 after implementing community prevention strategies around 4 elementary school zones in the city of Sherbrooke. Vehicle speed measurements before the intervention were available for one school zone and used for a before-after analysis. RESULTS: A total of 130, 274 vehicle speeds were measured in fall 2015. The mean speed for all school zones was 36.9 ± 5.4 km/h between 7am-5pm compared to 42.7 ± 5.8 km/h for evening, night and weekend hours (p < 0.0001). Furthermore, we observed an 9% reduction of vehicle speed on 7am-5pm weekdays after the implementation of prevention strategies in 2015. The mean speed was 36.4 km/h in 2013 and 33.2 km/h in 2015. CONCLUSION: Community-based interventions are an efficient method to reduce speed during school hours. These strategies led to a reduction in average speed during other hours of the day and during the weekend. However, the average speed measured in school zones were not under 30 km/h between 7am-5pm. These strategies could help other cities to promote safe pedestrian environments and improve active transportation and physical activity among children.

Relation between vehicle travel velocity and pedestrian injury risk in different age groups for the design of a pedestrian detection system

The vehicle travel velocity at the moment of pedestrian contact is considered to be an important parameter that affects the accident outcome. To reduce the vehicle-to-pedestrian travel velocity, a pedestrian detection system using a sensor in a vehicle could be an effective countermeasure. The specifications of the pedestrian detection system will need to be designed properly based on real-world accident situations. Then, the purpose of this study is to clarify the relation between vehicle travel velocity and pedestrian injury severity or fatality risk in traffic accident analyses in order to propose specifications of a pedestrian detection system. We analyzed the relation using the Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis (ITARDA) database for 2009 in Japan, considering different factors including a vehicle type and pedestrian age in actual traffic accidents. The results indicate that the percentage risk of fatality was consistent between sedans and light passenger cars at every vehicle travel velocity, rising sharply at a vehicle travel velocity of 40km/h. Meanwhile, in car-to-pedestrian accidents involving sedans and light passenger cars, pedestrians aged 60 and over faced the higher risk of fatality, which increased rapidly at the vehicle travel velocity of 40km/h. Therefore, the present study proposes that the specifications of the pedestrian detection system should be designed so that the vehicle travel velocity in traffic accidents could be reduced to 30km/h or lower, when we consider the decrease of fatality.

Pedestrian fatality risk in accidents at unsignalized zebra crosswalks in Poland

Poland has the second worst pedestrian fatality rate in the European Union. In the years 2007–2012, 9101 pedestrians were killed and 71328 injured on Polish roads. Almost 30% of pedestrian injury accidents took place at unsignalized zebra crosswalks. Based on police accident database, the worst problem in terms of numbers of fatalities occurs in built-up areas, on two-way undivided roads and at mid-block locations. Especially at risk are older people – almost 73% of pedestrians killed were 55 years or older. In order to show the effect of various factors on pedestrian fatality risk, a binary logit model with interaction terms was developed. The model shows that the following factors increase the probability of pedestrian's death at unsignalized zebra crosswalks: darkness, especially with no street lighting, divided road, two-way road, non built-up area, mid-block crosswalk location and summer time period. Speed limit is a crucial factor: probability of death increases by 37% with every 10km/h rise in the speed limit. Fatality risk increases also with victim's age and is higher for male pedestrians.

Pedestrian injury patterns and risk in minibus collisions in China.

BackgroundThe minibus, with a nearly flat front, is widely used in China, especially in the underdeveloped regions, and results in large numbers of pedestrian injuries and deaths. The purpose of this study was to determine the injury patterns and risk for pedestrians involved in these crashes.Material/MethodsWe conducted an in-depth investigation of minibus/pedestrian accidents in Chongqing, China, occurring between September 2000 and April 2014. The enrolled pedestrians was classified into 3 groups: young (aged 14–44 years), middle-aged (aged 45–59 years), and elderly (aged over 60 years). Pedestrian injuries were coded according to the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS).ResultsA total of 109 pedestrians, with an average age of 55.7±16.2 years, were injured or killed – 30.3% were young, 23.9% were middle-aged, and 45.9% were elderly. Pedestrians hit by a minibus had a high proportion of head, chest, and extremity injuries – 84.4%, 50.5%, and 52.3%, respectively. In addition, impact speeds in excess of 75 km/h all ultimately resulted in fatalities. At an impact speed of 30 km/h, the risk of pedestrian fatality and AIS3+ injury are approximately 12.0% and 37.2%, respectively. At 50 km/h the risks are 65.2% and 96.9%, respectively, and at 70 km/h the risks are 96.3% and 99.9%, respectively.ConclusionsA higher likelihood of chest injury was associated with being older and impact speed of over 40 km/h in minibus/pedestrian collision. Our data suggest that the injury patterns of pedestrians in minibus collisions differ from that in other vehicle/pedestrian collisions. These findings could contribute to better understanding of the injury patterns and risk of pedestrian in minibus collisions in China, which may play an important role in developing measures to improve traffic safety.

Regression Analysis of Pedestrian Fatality Risk and Impact Speed

In order to study the relationship between pedestrian fatality risk and impact speed in domestic pedestrian traffic accidents. According to the frontal shapes of domestic vehicles, this paper divided the vehicle types into long head car, short head car and flat car. Used in-depth accident study method to collect a large number of actual traffic accidents cases. The logistic regression models of pedestrian fatality risk and impact speed of long head car, short head car and flat car were established. The Wald Chi-Square test was used to validate the accuracy of the model. The results shows: The long head car corresponds to the lowest pedestrian fatality risk, the flat car corresponds to the highest values. Compared with developed countries, the developed emergency and medical care play an important role in reducing the pedestrian fatality risk.

An Investigation on the Head Injuries of Adult Pedestrians by Passenger Cars in China

Objective: To investigate the relative likelihood of pedestrian head injuries based on person, vehicular, and environmental factors in China. Methods: A team was established to collect passenger car–pedestrian accident cases occurring between 2006 and 2011 in Beijing, Shanxi Province, and Chongqing, China. Some key variables for person-, vehicle-, and environment-related factors on head injuries were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression analysis to determine relative risk/likelihood. Pedestrians were classified according to injury outcome and age. Pedestrian head injuries were scored using the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS). Results: A total of 285 vehicle–pedestrian crashes were collected and analyzed: 30 in Beijing, 20 in Shanxi Province, and 235 in Chongqing. The distribution in age and road type by study location differed. The injury outcome, head injury severity, and head contact site were different among 4 age groups. The variables including head contact site and impact speed were the common determinants for head injury severity. A higher pedestrian fatality risk was associated with age over 46, impact speeds over 40 km/h, and higher likelihoods of the victim's head striking the windscreen frame/A pillar and of the victim sustaining a head injury. Similarly, a higher risk of head injury was associated with being female, age over 60, impact speeds over 40 km/h, and a likelihood of the victim's head striking the vehicle rather than the ground. Impact speeds of over 40 km/h and head contact site on windscreen frame/A pillar retained a strong association with severe head injury (AIS 5–6) rate. Conclusions: Pedestrian age, vehicle impact speed, and head contact site were common pertinent factors for the risk of pedestrian head injury and the risk of death. Further studies would be valuable to fully characterize vehicle–pedestrian crashes in China and to develop targeted injury prevention strategies based on surveillance results. Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Traffic Injury Prevention to view the supplemental file.