ABSTRACT In the context of global warming, domestic cooling demand in the UK, particularly in London, is expected to rise significantly, posing challenges for an energy system traditionally focused on heating. This paper presents a high-resolutison, bottom-up model to predict hourly cooling demand in London by integrating building simulation, inventory data, and meteorological projections. The model categorizes domestic buildings into four main types and assigns different insulation levels based on building age, generating 12 distinct cooling demand profiles across London’s 33 boroughs. The model forecasts a 45% increase in cooling demand by 2050, with peak electricity demand for cooling potentially doubling residential electricity usage in 2020. This study further reveals significant geographical and temporal variations and analyses the impact of increased cooling demand on London’s electricity grid. The analysis of cooling duration curves highlights the low utilization of cooling equipment during non-peak periods, emphasizing the inefficiency in current systems. To mitigate peak demand, energy storage systems are proposed, with simulations suggesting that up to 50% of peak demand can be reduced, improving grid stability. The findings underscore the importance of not only accounting for future cooling demand but also optimizing equipment utilization and planning cooling infrastructure in urban areas.
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