Peace Process Research Articles

Peace Versus Profit: Rebel Fragmentation and Conflict Resurgence in Colombia

Abstract Why do rebel splinter groups emerge during peace processes, and who chooses to defect? Since Colombia's landmark peace agreement with the FARC in 2016, roughly half of the territory once controlled by the group has seen a resurgence of rebel activity by FARC splinter groups. I argue that the FARC's return to arms is a case of “middle-out fragmentation,” whereby opportunities for profit induce mid- or low-ranking rebel commanders to establish splinter groups. In Colombia, I argue that profits from the cocaine trade incentivized local-level FARC officers to defect from the peace agreement and allowed them to rapidly mobilize viable splinter groups. I offer several lines of evidence for this argument. I first construct a chronology of splinter group formation, which demonstrates that mid- and low-level commanders, rather than high-level commanders, were the key drivers of fragmentation. Second, I show that splinter groups emerged in areas where opportunities for profit were greatest. Among areas previously controlled by the FARC, those with coca cultivation prior to the peace agreement were up to thirty-seven percentage points more likely to see splinter groups emerge by 2020 than areas without significant production. Using soil and weather conditions to instrument for coca cultivation produces similar results. Further, I use a novel measure of how critical each municipality is to drug trafficking to show that areas that are theoretically most important for drug trafficking are also more likely to see FARC resurgence. I also address competing explanations related to state capacity, terrain, and popular support for the rebels. These findings highlight an important challenge to peacebuilding: satisfying the political demands of rebel leadership is a necessary but insufficient component of peace agreements in cases where opportunities for profit motivate fragmentation from the middle out.

Compellence by denial against armed groups: UN peacekeeping in Ituri, the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Abstract Peace operations are often deployed to countries where conflicts are effectively ongoing, with mandates to protect civilians and provide security. With the authorisation to use force beyond self-defence, peacekeepers are expected to exert military pressure on armed groups to induce them to abandon violence and join peace processes. Such an approach falls in the domain of compellence. Given that peace operations struggle to adapt to this new expectation, it is imperative to find effective ways of compelling armed groups. While studies on compellence agree on the effectiveness of denial-type pressure, its specific forms are highly context-dependent. What is the most effective way to achieve denial against armed groups in the context of peace operations? There are four such approaches: attrition, stronghold neutralisation, decapitation, and counter-coercion negation. A case study of peacekeeping by the United Nation in Ituri reveals that stronghold neutralisation and counter-coercion negation were especially important for compelling rebels to disarm. As existing studies have not examined the effectiveness of specific forms of denial in peace operations, the finding contributes significantly to the literature on compellence and peace operations.

Redefining the neutral intermediary role: Balancing theoretical ideas with practical realities through the ICRC's experience in Yemen

Abstract Neutrality, a foundational principle in humanitarian efforts and peace mediation, encounters significant practical challenges in the modern landscape of armed conflicts, particularly in the intermediary role of humanitarian organizations. This study examines the role of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) as a neutral intermediary in Yemen, focusing on the release and repatriation of detainees during the 2016–20 peace efforts. Drawing on the ICRC's experience, the analysis highlights the evolving understanding of neutrality from a rigid concept to a more flexible, context-sensitive approach. The findings emphasize the importance of neutrality in fostering trust and facilitating dialogue while acknowledging the operational complexities and strategic considerations involved. This study provides insights into enhancing the contributions of neutral intermediaries to sustainable peace processes.

The impact of education and training on promoting gender equality while simultaneously contributing to sustainable peacebuilding

The interplay between education, training, and gender equality is crucial in the context of peacebuilding. This paper investigates how educational initiatives can foster gender equality while simultaneously contributing to sustainable peace in conflict-affected societies. By examining the transformative role of education, This research investigate the potential to empower women and girls, challenge traditional gender norms, and facilitate social cohesion. Giving access to quality of education enables women to gain essential skills and knowledge, which are vital for their participation in peacebuilding processes. Educational programs that incorporate gender sensitive curricula not only promote awareness of gender issues but also encourage critical thinking and dialogue about conflict resolution and civic engagement. Such programs can help dismantle harmful stereotypes and foster a culture of respect and collaboration between genders. vocational training initiatives aimed at women can enhance their economic independence, which is crucial for their active involvement in peace processes. Empowered women can act as catalysts for change, advocating for their rights and contributing to community resilience. Some case studies from various regions illustrate how education and training have been instrumental in mobilizing women as leaders in peacebuilding efforts. This research discusses the importance of involving men and boys in educational programs that promote gender equality. By engaging all genders in discussions about peace and equality, communities can work towards a more inclusive approach to conflict resolution. The findings indicate that education serves as a critical foundation for building a peaceful society where gender equality is prioritized. The integrating education and training focused on gender equality into peacebuilding strategies can lead to more sustainable outcomes. Investing in the education of both women and men is essential for creating a culture of peace, reducing violence, and fostering inclusive governance. Ultimately, this approach not only benefits individuals but also strengthens communities and contributes to broader societal stability.

Reality and Dreams of Peace Process in the Middle East

Reality and Dreams of Peace Process in the Middle East

Obliged tolerance: Power at the intersection of everyday peace and the intervention economy

This article explores the economic relationships of host and refugee communities in the context of international humanitarian interventions and their implications for everyday peace. It argues for an expanded understanding of power in everyday peace, incorporating an analysis of the interplay between international interventions, local power dynamics and everyday peace. It responds to the call for increased attention to the economic dimensions of peacebuilding, particularly at the local level. The article introduces the concept of obliged tolerance to explain some of the socioeconomic motivations for different actors in the intervention economy to engage in everyday peace processes. Those benefitting from the international intervention actuate less empowered community members to practice tolerance for peaceful coexistence which sustains the economic benefits derived from the intervention economy. The findings from research conducted in Lebanon indicate that humanitarian interventions shape a peace that primarily benefits affluent and influential actors, while marginalised individuals engage in everyday peace for survival and to pursue socioeconomic opportunities. By integrating an analysis of everyday economic interactions, this article highlights the role of power dynamics and economic motivations based on obliged tolerance in shaping everyday peace, challenging conventional notions of everyday peace as a social coping mechanism that people practice entirely voluntarily.

Ethnodevelopment and post-conflict: new challenges for the social construction of habitat with territorial justice in the Afro-Colombian Caribbean

ABSTRACT In Colombia, the ethnic and rural communities’ defense of their territories poses a complex and urgent challenge, even after the protracted peace process that culminated in the 2016 havana accords. With the uncertainties of the current post-conflict scenario, regulations and framework initiatives have generated an important debate that affects community life. The complexity of the Caribbean region involves historical, ethnic claims in the Montes de María, a place of permanent social struggle, where armed conflict has provoked intense forced displacement. This research encompasses the collective processes of territorial affirmation in this region. It investigates the scope, impact, and development of life plans by the Afro-Colombian community councils, as effective governance mechanisms that allow communities to remain in their territory with dignity. The author asserts that life plans based on Participatory Action Research (PAR) are an alternative to the development plans proposed by the government, as they suggest territorial affirmation from an ethnic differential approach and enable social renewal. This case study proposes a methodology to support communities in developing life plans, a process that can be replicated in similar contexts.

Amnesties as a means of encouraging transition and strengthening the application of IHL in Colombia: The case of the Special Jurisdiction for Peace

Abstract Bearing in mind that the peace process between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People's Army (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – Ejército del Pueblo, FARC-EP) has been an important milestone for transitional justice, this article aims to share some of the good practices and achievements of this process, as well as the setbacks and challenges that could be avoided in future peace processes. The article will highlight relevant contributions from the Chamber for Amnesty or Pardon (CAP) such as impacting the resocialization of former FARC-EP members and developing international humanitarian law discussions in relation to war crimes and less serious crimes. Additionally, it will describe some of the main challenges faced by the CAP, such as the high number of applications for transitional benefits that it receives, the high number of proceedings that it supervises, and the security concerns arising from implementing a peace agreement in a country still in conflict.

Transitional Justice in Colombia: A Systematic Literature Review

Transitional justice in Colombia has evolved, reflecting the political, social, and academic changes in the country. This study is a systematic review of the literature through articles indexed in Web of Science, applying the PRISMA protocol. Out of 3819 articles published in the last five years (2019-2024), 109 articles were selected following strict exclusion criteria. The methodology includes a quantitative analysis complemented with the visual analysis tool Posit PBC™ for bibliometric analysis in Biblioshyni. The study addresses the research question on the evolution of the main research interests in the field of Transitional Justice in Colombia. The results show that initially, analyses on transitional justice focused on documenting the atrocities of the armed conflict, with a focus on truth and reparation, grounding legal mechanisms such as the Justice and Peace Law of 2005; with the 2016 Peace Agreement, research expanded into more complex issues, including the interaction between transitional justice and development, and the importance of civil society and victim engagement. The inclusion of the gender perspective, particularly after the 2016 Peace Agreement, led to studies on how women and LGBTI+ communities were differentially affected by the conflict. In addition, recent research has focused on the comparison between the peace processes with the AUC and the FARC-EP, analyzing the differences in their transitional justice frameworks and the challenges of implementing these agreements in a context of persistent violence.

‘Towards a modern democracy’? The constitutional politics of the 1990s British left

ABSTRACT This article argues that a ‘constitutional lens’ sheds light on British political contestation in the 1990s. It is commonly suggested that 1990s politicians merely consolidated the hegemony of ‘Thatcherism’. Yet, this struggles to encompass the decade’s political volatility, from the Conservatives’ descent into internecine warfare over the Maastricht Treaty to the fraught Irish peace process. Though varied, these developments shared a key theme: controversy over the constitution of the United Kingdom. To illustrate its case, this article applies the constitutional lens to the 1990s left. Existing accounts emphasise Labour’s concessions to Conservative opponents. By 2001, however, the first Blair government had enacted contentious constitutional changes: devolution, proportional voting systems, and a Human Rights Act. These policies reflected a dynamic, new, liberal-left politics of constitutional reform. From the 1980s, liberals, social democrats and Marxists forged a new constitutional agenda, responding to trends since the 1960s—growing ‘popular individualism’, agitation for ‘human rights’, European integration, and Scottish nationalism—and to the end of the Cold War. By the 1990s, campaigners had developed a bold programme for ‘modernising the constitution’, which influenced Labour’s programme. Through New Labour’s governments, this agenda profoundly reshaped the institutions of British politics in the twenty-first century.

Mapping disability in war-to-peace transitions: global patterns and the Lebanese experience

The inclusion of people with disabilities can facilitate sustainable peace after civil war. To shed a novel light on the relationship between war-to-peace transitions and disability, we map approaches to impairments in 286 worldwide intra-state political agreements, before considering the experience of Lebanon. Through a rigorous mixed methods research design, we show that war-to-peace transitions entrench the marginalisation of people with disabilities. Political agreements reproduce oversimplified understandings of disability; emphasise war-related physical impairments over non-physical and congenital ones; and prioritise support for former combatants. In Lebanon, disability-related legislation suffers from similar blind spots and remains unimplemented because of lack of financial resources, of weak capacity and cooperation among responsible local and international agencies, and of the features of the local political settlement. We discuss some significant implications for the lives of people with disabilities and their families, before providing recommendations to promote inclusive war-to-peace transitions. POINTS OF INTEREST Peace processes provide a crucial window of opportunity to build more inclusive societies. At a global level, civil war peace agreements overlook people with disabilities. Even when they mention impairments, peace accords adopt over­simplified understandings of disability, prioritise war-related physical impairments over non-physical and congenital ones, and emphasise interventions in support of former combatants. In Lebanon, lack of financial resources, weak capacity and cooperation among responsible local and international agencies, and local political dynamics further constrain the implementation of disability-focused policies. Globally, discourses on transition between civil war and a peaceful and just future, remain ableist and disempowering.

Perceptions at War: Exploring Public Attitude Formation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict

Abstract The post-2020 escalations in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, culminating in the Azerbaijani military offensive of September 2023 and the subsequent mass exodus of the Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, once again underscored the persistent deadlock in the peace process and the failure to achieve compromise. This article aims to analyze the genesis of maximalist attitudes within Armenian and Azerbaijani societies in the years preceding the 2020 war, as well as the factors contributing to the endurance of these attitudes in the years that followed. Drawing on the analysis of maximalist attitudes formation during the interwar period (1994–2020), the research delves into the obstacles encountered by peace activists and peacebuilders in their efforts to counter dominant nationalism, alongside other challenges and structural impediments in the peacebuilding process. Finally, the study investigates the determinants that shaped the post-war attitudes in Armenia and Azerbaijan preceding the pivotal events of September 2023.

Networks between Ireland and the Irish American Diaspora during the Northern Ireland Peace Process

Abstract This article explores the complex relationship between the network of actors in the United States and Ireland who sought to influence American foreign policy in the Northern Ireland peace process. These networks operated in civil society, representing numerous Irish American organizations linking corporate and church leaders and the media to members of the Irish American diaspora in government to influence the United States’ diplomacy. These Irish American groups and individuals interested in influencing events in Northern Ireland were linked with a wide array of governmental and non-governmental actors in Ireland. Often, Americans were quite deferential to leaders and groups in Ireland and Northern Ireland who sought to mobilize the Irish diaspora in the United States for their cause. Thus, the United States’ role in Ireland and Northern Ireland was not that of a hegemonic power but one of an empathetic actor responding to developments and cues provided by various actors in the Irish context. Transatlantic networking, made more possible due to technological changes in communication and transportation, facilitated increased exchanges of ideas, agents, and information. These networks allowed groups across the Atlantic to elicit support for local groups in Northern Ireland and mobilize the US government to play a political and diplomatic role in the conflict and peace process. Ultimately, the majority of Irish Americans moved from supporting the nationalist/republican side in the early years of the Troubles to becoming strong supporters of the peace process in the 1990s.

Sharia as a New Culture System of Identity in the Post-Conlict Aceh, Indonesia

The research on Aceh in various fields has been conducted by many scholars so far. What is felt less of concern in academic studies is on current period of post-conflict Aceh after peace process between Free Aceh Movement and Indonesian Army since 2005. This article would like to discuss about contemporary situation, especially in the post-conflict Aceh, on what has been shifted dealing with socio-cultural in Acehnese society. However, it has been a big change and shifting within society in Aceh, particularly after sharia religious law stipulated as the main legal formal that is objected as social engineering. Why sharia is important to be studied here could be not separated from Aceh’s long history and its deep role of Islamization process to South East Asia. Beside it is used as an identity, sharia currently in Aceh has also chosen as the new culture system and as the way out of prolonged armed conflict in Aceh that has taken place for more than three decades (1976-2005). By using theory religion as a culture system, this article would like to discuss and analyze about how does sharia now in Aceh become a new culture system of identity that broadly changed Aceh and its society, not only in socio-cultural, but also any other dimensions of life in contemporary time. The findings show that sharia religious law which has been institutionalized and stipulated as the main legal formal is more being objected as social engineering projects for future oriented social transformation and being a new culture system of identity.

A neglected turning-point? The 1985 Northern Irish local elections and the transformation of Irish republicanism

ABSTRACT The emergence of the political party Sinn Féin as an electoral force, and its gradual displacement of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) as the primary vehicle for Provisional Irish republicanism, was an indispensable precondition for the peace process that brought an end to the long-running Northern Irish ‘Troubles’. Unsurprisingly, this process has been a subject of close academic scrutiny, with much attention focusing on the dramatic, early breakthroughs made by Sinn Féin, particularly in the years 1981–1983. By contrast, the mid-to-late 1980s are often represented as something of a fallow period for the party, when its initial, seemingly meteoric rise stalled. Within this narrative, the 1985 local elections are typically passed over relatively quickly. Yet this article makes the case for revisiting those elections, seeing them as marking a somewhat under-appreciated political earthquake in Northern Ireland. It does so on the basis that first, the elections laid bare the ambiguities and tensions arising from the Irish republican movement’s ‘Armalite and Ballot box’ strategy. And second, the consequences of the 1985 elections proved decisive in reshaping both Irish republicanism and the wider political landscape of Northern Ireland.

Strategies for Integrating Multicultural Education and Religious Education to Strengthen the Multicultural Character of Elementary School Students

Religious education and multicultural education in elementary schools are considered very important in addressing the increasing issue of moral decay among children. This study aims to describe the strategy of integrating the interconnection of religious and multicultural education in strengthening the character of elementary school students. This study uses a qualitative approach of the case study type with the objects of the principal, teachers, and students. Research data were collected through observation, interviews, and documentation. The collected data were then analyzed through data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion drawing. Researchers use triangulation techniques and triangulation sources to obtain data validity. This study found that integrating the interconnection of religious education and multicultural education strengthens the character of elementary school students by integrating-interconnecting certain values in the curriculum and the learning process, namely equality, unity, justice, kinship, tolerance, and love of peace. The results of this study not only provide theoretical contributions to character formation through religious and multicultural education and offer practical insights for elementary schools in forming students' characters through the integration of religious and multicultural education.

Ideology in the Korean War

This study examines the persistent tensions between North and South Korea, two nations that share historical and cultural ties prior to their division following World War II. After Japan’s surrender on August 15, 1945, Korea was split into two spheres of influence: the Soviet Union took control of the North, while the United States oversaw the South, with the 38th parallel serving as the dividing line. This division led to stark ideological, social, and economic differences between the two countries, exacerbated by the Cold War rivalry. The Korean War became a larger proxy conflict, with North Korea receiving support from the Soviet Union and China, while South Korea was backed by the United States and its UN allies. The war involved various military strategies across land, sea, and air, adapting to the evolving battlefield conditions. This research uses a descriptive analysis and documentary method, relying on books, articles, and other sources to explore the ongoing conflict and the challenges of the peace process between the two Koreas. The study aims to illuminate the root causes of the conflict and the barriers to lasting peace, while emphasizing the substantial role of global powers like the United States and the Soviet Union in shaping the ideological and social dynamics of the Korean Peninsula

The Vertical Integration Model of Peacebuilding as Applied to the Bangsamoro Peace Process

The Vertical Integration Model of Peacebuilding as Applied to the Bangsamoro Peace Process

From Oslo to Be’eri: how the 30-years-long peace delusion led to Hamas’s 10/7 massacres

ABSTRACT The failure to prevent Hamas’s slaughter of some 1,300 Israelis on 7 October 2023 – the largest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust – is a direct result of an emergency phone consultation three hours before the terror group’s invasion of Israel with the participation of the IDF’s and Shin Bet’s top leaders, who decided to do nothing despite acute warning signals and failed to alert the Gaza division commander and the political echelon to the imminent attack. Had they taken the minimal precautionary measures, the catastrophe would have been averted altogether. To fully understand the mindset underlying this monumental blunder requires tracing its evolution within the context of the 30-years-long Oslo peace delusion in general, and during the turbulent year preceding the 10/7 massacres in particular. That is: the substitution of a grand strategic deception aimed at Israel’s destruction for a true peace process and the attendant emasculation of the IDF’s military capabilities and combative/offensive ethos, on the one hand, and the unravelling of Israel’s sociopolitical fabric that culminated in the 2023 mass civil disobedience that enticed Hamas into action, on the other. Even Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who opposed the Oslo process from the outset and managed to neutralise its most catastrophic potential calamity – the establishment of a Palestinian state committed to Israel’s destruction in the West Bank and Gaza – failed to extricate Israel from this disastrous course and was ironically forced to bear its full brunt on 7 October 2023.

Rebel fragmentation in the time of peace negotiations: Sri Lanka’s LTTE and the Karuna Group

ABSTRACT Why do rebel groups fragment during peace negotiations? The defection of the Karuna Group from Sri Lanka’s LTTE during the 2002–2006 peace process served as the case study to investigate this research question. The disagreement between LTTE leader Prabhakaran and Karuna was the immediate cause of the split. The negotiation disagreement stemmed from the decision to explore federalism as a solution to the conflict. There were supporting factors that boosted the negotiation disagreement. Karuna’s pro-peace transformation, his insecurities, the differences between the Northern and Eastern Tamils, and the external influence enhanced and consolidated the negotiation disagreement.