Peace Agreement Research Articles

A simple twist of fate. An experiment on election uncertainty and democratic institutions

In this paper we study electoral systems in an experimental governance game in which citizens contribute to a public good and policymakers decide how to distribute it. In the Voting condition, citizens receive information about the policymaker performance (how much she shared of the public good with individual participants), her skills and her altruism, and vote directly for a policymaker for the next election cycle. In the Referendum condition voters receive information about the policymaker's performance before deciding whether to remove her from office in a simpler binary choice (in or out). If they decide to remove the incumbent, a new policymaker is chosen randomly from the remaining group members, in the spirit of referendums like Brexit or the plebiscite about the peace agreements in Colombia. We compare these two electoral mechanisms with two baselines in which the policymaker is never replaced (Baseline) and another one (Random) in which the policymaker is always randomly replaced by another participant. Our results show that both electoral mechanisms are largely effective in improving citizens’ earnings by generating more equitable sharing rules. Citizens in Voting and Referendum extract greater surplus from policymakers than in the other conditions and voting against a candidate (Referendum) is more effective in increasing surplus than voting for a candidate (Voting). Contributions to the public good and conditional cooperation patterns remain strikingly similar in democratic (Referendum and Voting) and non-democratic (Baseline and Random) conditions. Empirical expectations about contributions of other citizens are similar as well. However, we show that policymakers distribute the public good differently in democratic institutions, and more effectively in Referendum than in Voting, as policymakers use clientelist transfers to avoid being replaced. Overall, both democratic institutions are effective in improving citizens’ payoffs by indirectly limiting policymakers’ surplus.

Christian-Muslim Narratives and their Dialogue for Sustainable Peace and Development in the Oromia Region, Ethiopia

Christian-Muslim Narratives and their Dialogue for Sustainable Peace and Development in the Oromia Region, Ethiopia

Landscape connectivity loss after the de-escalation of armed conflict in the Colombian Amazon (2011–2021)

Rapid deforestation has been well-documented in Colombia after the 2016 peace agreement with FARC. While many analysis using remote sensing identify land cover change, structural connectivity variables are less studied for understanding landscape transformation. In this work, we used data from the Landsat archive from 2011 to 2021, the Continuous Change Detection and Classification algorithm (CCDC), and Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) to analyze deforestation, land cover change, and landscape connectivity in northwestern Colombia’s Amazon. We examined the spatial patterns in three specific subsets in the Colombian arc of deforestation, with a special focus on the surroundings of the National Natural Park Serranía de Chiribiquete. Our results confirm changes in structural connectivity linked to pasture expansion from the conversion forest to pasture during the analyzed period showing changes in the borders of Serranía de Chiribiquete National Park along rivers and roads, where cattle is transported. Before 2016, the average annual deforested area in the three study areas was 27.93 km²; after 2016, this number increased to 73.36 km². The outcomes of our study contribute to an improved understanding of pasture dynamics. They can aid decision-making in areas that play a key role in ecological networks necessary for long-term conservation efforts. Our quantitative assessments have revealed a temporal shrinking of the core area, indicative of a decline in forest cover. Concurrently, we observed an expansion of the edge and background areas, which is consistent with the proliferation of pastures. This study presents methodology and data in support of policy-making for sustainable land use and ecological connectivity to mitigate further environmental degradation in the area.

Local Wisdom-based Restorative Justice Approach to Customary Violations Committed by Children

Child protection is an effort to create conditions so that children can carry out their rights and obligations while still prioritizing their best interests. There are three things discussed in this study namely: punishment policy in the use of diversion and restorative justice, values and forms of restorative justice, and the role of custom in cases of children in conflict with the law. This study is an empirical legal study that examines the settlement of criminal cases committed by children with a restorative justice approach. The data used are primary data and secondary data. Analysis of the problems is carried out qualitatively. The policy of handling children's cases with the concept of restorative justice, which promotes peace through deliberations involving various parties, religious and traditional leaders, and the community is very much in line with the concepts of progressive law and substantive justice. To realize the settlement of cases based on restorative justice, relevant stakeholders are expected to be able to apply the values of restorative justice in practice to be able to produce peace agreements that reflect the sense of community justice. Efforts to resolve cases or customary issues carried out by deliberation by traditional elders as village peace judges, are part of the application of local Balinese wisdom and are the best step to restore the situation as before by sticking to the spirit of kinship, mutual care, compassion, and care. Keywords: Children, customary village, diversion, local Balinese wisdom, restorative justice

The web of conflict-related interactions in Colombia: exploring causal linkages between ecological and social variables by the qualitative loop analysis.

In Colombia, the long-lasting internal conflict heavily shaped the socio-ecological context and imposed relationships that persisted after the peace agreement was signed in 2016. One question of interest is whether policies or interventions conceived to attain desirable goals for the post-conflict society may be effective or, rather, if the constraints imposed by the conflict scenario might produce unintended effects, either on the environmental or the social side. To explore this issue, we envisaged the socio-ecological system as a parsimonious set of characteristic ecological and social variables within the conflict-related framework and reconstructed their interactions, exploiting elicitation-based information and the literature. We visualized the resulting interactive networks as signed digraphs. Applying the qualitative technique of loop analysis combined with numerical simulations, we predicted the response of the system to policies as drivers of change, such as subsidized credit to capital-intensive activities or policies that increase small farming competitiveness and access to markets. Highlighting causal linkages reveals that the persistence of conflict factors may produce unexpected interdependencies between licit and illicit activities and that, only in a few cases, the persistence of these mechanisms allows synergies between desirable goals.This article is part of the theme issue 'Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions'.

Balance of the operation of the United Nations Multi-Donor Fund in Colombia in the 2016-2022 period

The objective of this article is to assess the operation of the United Nations Multi-Donor Fund in Colombia, established to support the implementation of the Peace Agreement with the FARC-EP, focusing on its first two phases: 2016-2022. The methodological strategy consisted of documentary analysis based on the regulations of the mechanism and its reports. Among the results, it is highlighted that there is an unstable funding dynamic, as well as that operationally preponderance was given to the Development Plans with a Territorial Approach. It is concluded that there were strong limitations in the intervention of critical problems in the territories.

The unidirectional relationship between forest disturbance and armed conflict in the Andean Paramo

The armed conflict in Colombia has profoundly transformed rural landscapes, significantly impacting local communities. Sumapaz, the world's largest paramo, is a crucial water source for over 15 million people in the central Andean region of Colombia. Historically, the paramo functioned as a strategic corridor for the leftist guerrilla Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) to gain access to Bogotá for a potential armed takeover of political power. The specific impact of the conflict between the FARC and the Colombian army in the paramo, as well as the effects of conflict de-escalation, remain understudied. By analyzing forest disturbances and records on victims and conflict events, we identified a unidirectional relationship between the intensity of armed conflict and landscape transformation. Forest disturbances were significantly higher during the armed conflict (2001-2012). In contrast, forest disturbances have markedly decreased since the beginning of peace negotiations in 2012 and the subsequent peace agreement period 2016-2020. These findings contrast with documented trends in other regions of the country, such as the Andean and Amazonian areas. Our results demonstrate that the legacy of armed confrontation between the Colombian army and FARC in the paramo negatively impacted the landscape. Importantly, these findings provide valuable insights into conservation policies and environmental management during the post-peace agreement era, offering an opportunity to develop future preservation actions and shape the future of the Andean Paramo.

Nepal-India Political Relations: A Comprehensive Analysis of Historical Dynamics, Contemporary Challenges, and Future Prospects

This research provides a comprehensive analysis of the historical dynamics, contemporary challenges, and future prospects in Nepal-India political relations. The diplomatic ties between the two nations, rooted in shared history, cultural affinities, and geographical proximity, have witnessed both cooperation and discord over the centuries. While historical documents highlight periods of mutual respect, the study delves into the complexities of the Treaty of Peace and Friendship in 1950, solidifying diplomatic bonds. However, recent years have seen a shift in this narrative, marked by territorial disputes, economic imbalances, and evolving geopolitical dynamics. Contemporary challenges include territorial disputes leading to diplomatic intricacies and economic imbalances raising questions about the equitable nature of the bilateral relationship. The research adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining historical analysis, policy examination, and stakeholder perspectives to offer timely and relevant insights. Key informant interviews with political leaders, diplomats, and professionals provide a diverse understanding of the multifaceted issues at hand. The study identifies territorial disputes and unequal diplomatic treaties as major challenges, contributing to tensions in Nepal-India relations. It emphasizes the need for a peaceful discourse to resolve border encroachments and calls for a revision of existing treaties in light of changing regional and international circumstances. Additionally, socio cultural affinities between the two nations are explored, with strategies proposed for bridging gaps and fostering a sense of shared identity. The research concludes with strategies for future cooperation, advocating for a balanced diplomatic relationship that considers the changing global landscape. The equidistance principle is discussed, urging both nations to adapt their mindsets and refrain from micromanaging each other's domestic politics. The study underscores the importance of recognizing the historical ties between Nepal and India, emphasizing the potential for multifaceted alliances in the future.

The meaning of Brexit and the future of the Union

The referendum of 23 June 2016 on the UK’s continued membership of the European Union produced a narrow but clear majority for ‘Leave’. But the campaign’s organisers had no clear idea of how to proceed, throwing the country and the governing Conservative party into chronic confusion. Between June 2016 and July 2024, the UK had five Tory prime ministers. Drawing on recent books and articles, the first section of this essay shows how ‘Brexit’ was a slogan in search of a strategy, with the Tories unable to agree on major issues such as the ‘control of borders’ and the maintenance of the 1998 Good Friday peace agreement in Northern Ireland. The second section explores the struggle over the unity of the United Kingdom between Tory centralisers and the devolved governments who wanted the powers repatriated from Brussels to be returned to them. This article arises from the Elie Kedourie Memorial Lecture, delivered 14 November 2023.

Sanksi Adat Terhadap Pelaku Tindak Pidana Perzinaan di Desa Tangkit Kecamatan Sungai Gelam Kabupaten Muaro Jambi

This research discusses customary sanctions against perpetrators of criminal acts of adultery in Tangkit Village, Sungai Gelam District, Muaro Jambi Regency. The formulation of the problem of this research is how the existence of customary sanctions in the criminal act of adultery through customary law in Tangkit Village, Sungai Gelam Subdistrict, Muaro Jambi Regency, what are the obstacles faced in resolving the criminal act of adultery through customary law in Tangkit Village, Sungai Gelam Subdistrict, Muaro Jambi Regency and what efforts are made to overcome the obstacles to the criminal act of adultery through customary law in Tangkit Village, Sungai Gelam Subdistrict, Muaro Jambi Regency. To analyse these problems, the approach used in research on customary sanctions against perpetrators of adultery in Tangkit Village, Sungai Gelam District, Muaro Jambi Regency as one of the sources of law is empirical, namely an approach to the problem studied by looking at the provisions contained in the applicable laws and regulations and then whether the regulations are applied properly or not in the implementation of law enforcement. To examine the three existing problems, the theory of criminal sanctions is used. The results of this study indicate that the form of settlement of adultery cases in Tangkit Village, Sungai Gelam Subdistrict, Muaro Jambi Regency is carried out in a way, namely: expulsion from the village / village but previously a village wash was held first, namely giving one buffalo, 100 bushels of rice, 50 coconuts and selemak semanis. Then the perpetrator apologised for his actions and signed the peace agreement on a stamp duty of RP. 6,000.00 (Surat Setih) in 8 (eight) copies to be forwarded to the Regent, local police, sub-district head, village head, customary chief, relatives and the person concerned. The customary decision must be implemented by the perpetrator with a maximum grace period of 3 months to implement it. When the sanctions have been imposed by the customary institution for adultery, but the perpetrator is unable to fulfil them, the customary institution obliges the extended family of each party to participate in the customary settlement. Problems encountered in the settlement of adultery cases in Tangkit Village, Sungai Gelam Sub-District, Muaro Jambi Regency, namely: There is a difference of opinion between the enforcement of customary punishment between the youth and the tengganai elders and adultery cases that are resolved by national criminal law, the legal process takes a long time and is expensive, causing a lot of suffering to the perpetrator. Efforts to overcome the problems that occurred included a personal approach from the youth and tengganai elders to continue to apply customary criminal law as the original law of the Indonesian people, by means of all parties deliberating in a traditional meeting to weigh the advantages and disadvantages of national criminal law and customary criminal law and finally in a traditional meeting decided to use customary criminal law in resolving this adultery case because the legal process was not long and the costs were also affordable and the approach of the customary institution of Tangkit Village, Sungai Gelam District, Muaro Jambi Regency. to the community to provide socialisation and education on the basis of Jambi Customary Law, namely Induk Undan Nan Lima, Pucuk undang nan eight and Anak undang nan twelve so that people know that customary criminal law still exists, applies, and has permanent legal force. The suggestion is that the Muaro Jambi Regency Government should provide and require every community to attend religious activities such as recitation and regular lectures so that the piety and faith of the community is strengthened rather than lust alone in order to avoid deviant behaviour and the customary institutions of Muaro Jambi Regency should be able to provide socialisation and counseling on the basis of Jambi Customary Law, namely Induk Undang Nan Lima, Pucuk undang nan eight and Anak undang nan twelve that customary criminal law can resolve adultery cases quickly, the legal process is not long, and the costs are affordable.

Islamic Law on Peace Agreements in Murabahah Dispute Resolution: An Analysis in Banyumas Religious Court

Islamic Law on Peace Agreements in Murabahah Dispute Resolution: An Analysis in Banyumas Religious Court

The Second Treaty of Erzurum and the Ottoman-Qajar border problem and their influence on Blbas (1847-1880)

Blbas was a tribal union and consisted of Mamash, Mangur, Piran, San, Ramk, Hormzyar and Gowrk tribes in the nineteenth century. They mostly lived a semi-nomadic life in Garmian and the deserted areas caused not comply with the regulations and restrictions of the Ottoman and Qajar states. As their long-standing tradition with the drop in temperatures and getting cold, they were heading to the hot areas of the Ottoman State (South of Kurdistan), and with the rise in temperatures and decrease in the pasture, they were moving to the highlands of Qajar state (East of Kurdistan). The migration and movement of the Blbas tribes began to cross the border and violated the provisions of the peace treaties between them, so the two countries accused the Blbas tribes of being the source of instability and crossing borders. In their treaty and border protocols, both countries have consistently referred directly or indirectly to the Blbas, they planned to oblige the tribes to take orders from the central governments and be inhabited in a specific area. The Ottoman and Qajar states used different techniques to abide the Blbas tribes such as; joint military attacks, tricks and deceptions, and creating conflicts among them. All this reveals the fact that the tribes of Blbas never gave up while they have been located in an important geopolitical position. Their courage and lack of surrender to the continuous ambitions of both states, they have always lived in an unstable and chaotic situation. They have become the major issue of the treaties and documents of the time when the Ottoman and Qajar states had a decisive impact on the history of the events in the region.

Open government and US development co‐operation in Colombia: Lessons for locally led development

AbstractMotivation“Localization”—direct donor support for national organizations in aid recipient countries—has become a top priority for international development. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) pledged to raise the proportion of direct funding to national organizations to 25% and for 50% of funding to involve “locally led” input. Independently, USAID commits to proactive disclosure of project information. This study analyses sectoral priorities, access to project data, and localization trends to inform policy discussion about how USAID can reach its twin localization goals, with a focus on Colombia, the largest US aid recipient in Latin America.PurposeAn open government perspective can shed light on whether and how development agencies are making progress towards localization. Moreover, user‐centred information disclosure by donors is necessary to inform locally led development. The goals of this study are to document USAID's sectoral funding priorities, gaps in data disclosure, implementation actions, and direct local funding percentages to make patterns more visible to stakeholders. We ask: What are the strengths and limitations of public disclosure of data concerning US aid in Colombia?Approach and methodsThis analysis uses open‐source data review methods to bring together different sources of publicly available data. These methods include triangulating government data disbursed across multiple sites, recoding government data to make trends visible, and identifying barriers to data access.FindingsPublic data indicate that US funding for peace‐related projects increased in the years following Colombia's 2016 Peace Accord, though the security share of total US aid remains high. Funding trends demonstrate that USAID is far behind its localization goals in Colombia, though absolute funding totals to local organizations are increasing. Finally, publicly available project data are not user‐centred, require technical acumen to access, and are fragmented across multiple sites.Policy implicationsUser‐centred disclosures are key to locally led development to ensure informed participation and accountability to stakeholders.

UN Peacekeeping Forces and Peace Negotiations in Africa

Abstract The aim of this article is to identify the factors underlying the success of peace negotiations in Africa, with particular emphasis on the role of UN peacekeepers. We analyze African Peace Processes (APP) data over the period 1989–2019 using the binary logistic model. Our results show that the deployment of UN peacekeepers is associated with the success of mediation efforts, both in intra-state and non-state conflicts. On the other hand, the presence of peacekeepers is detrimental to the success of bilateral negotiations. These results thus highlight that the ambiguity surrounding the effectiveness of UN forces in the peaceful management of conflicts depends on the presence or absence of a mediator. Consequently, political decision-makers should combine the deployment of peacekeeping forces with mediation initiatives to achieve peaceful conflict management. On the other hand, this should not be envisaged within the framework of bilateral negotiations, at the risk of producing opposite effects.

A Unique European Governance Structure : Office of the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina Basis of Its Legitimacy and Controversial Accountability

In order to assess the successes and failures of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (BiH) challenging road towards a fully functional democratic state aiming at membership in the European Union (EU), this paper examines the state-building process in BiH, and the transition from the post-Dayton political development, the work of the interim, ad-hoc political institution of the Office of the High Representative (OHR) in BiH, as well as the justification – if any - of its future existence and operation. Guided by the coordination dilemma, the research question of this paper is a reflection on the challenges of self-enforcing democratic institutions and how the OHR substitutes for it. This paper claims that the original purpose of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) was to create a powerful yet limited institution of the OHR, one that is to be given sufficient power to institute behaviour, but is prevented from abusing its power. However, this purpose deviated in the years that followed the signing of the DPA, creating and institution which doings resemble liberal imperialism. The hypothesis of the paper is that the OHR has been abusing its power and that it is time to close it because it is no more a substitute for the self-enforcing democratic institutions. This paper claims that the problem of political officials’ lack of respect for the political and economic rights of citizens they administer, as investigated by Weingast, is one of the central features of the operation of the OHR in BiH. The novelty of the paper lies in the attempt to test if OHR could be a case that could serve as a very good field to test Weingast’s model (1997).

Social representations of a group of ex-combatants on compliance with the Peace Agreement

Introduction: the peace process in Colombia, the signing of the Havana Treaty and its compliance, have been the subject of various investigations. Due to the long history of the conflict and the multiple attempts at pacification, the Peace Treaty represented an important opportunity to resolve deep-rooted social problems in the affected territories. Objective: the objective of the study was to describe the social representations of ex-combatants about the Peace Treaty. Methodology: a basic qualitative design based on observation, interview and triangulation of sources was implemented. Results: the main results point towards a social representation of variable polarity according to the specific points, the predominance of ideas and beliefs related to the construction of the future, a favorable appreciation of the transition and resistance related to the historical problems that generate the conflict. Conclusions: it is concluded that the representation of ex-combatants is marked by the idea that peace, as was the armed conflict, is a process that entails advances and setbacks.

Track Two Overloaded? A Model of “Linkage” and Gendered Inclusion in Peace Negotiations

Abstract This article discusses the relationship between gendered inclusion in peace processes and Track Two peacemaking. It responds to recent policy discourse that explicitly associates linking Track Two to Track One negotiations as a way to increase the inclusion of people identifying as women (United Nations Women 2015). However, the mechanisms through which Track Two leads to more “inclusive” outcomes is complex and unclear. To understand what these mechanisms are and how they can be studied, this article draws from existing theories on transfer in Track Two and inclusion literature in peace and conflict studies to present a novel conceptual model of “linkage.” This model explores the micro-dynamics of gendered inclusivity between different tracks of dialogue engagement and how transfer is facilitated between them.

Unsuccessful Effort of the Superpowers to Settle the Arab-Israeli Conflict in the Aftermath of the Six-Day War: The Gromyko-Goldberg Agreement

ABSTRACT In the aftermath of the Six-Day War between Israel and Arab countries, the Soviets and the Americans were locked in a diplomatic and propaganda battle in the UN over the future of the vast territories that Israel had conquered. Fearing that their Middle-Eastern clients, namely Egypt and Israel, could drag them into a direct clash, the two superpowers maintained secret contacts parallel to their power struggle in the UN in an effort to reach an agreement on principles to solve the Arab-Israeli conflict. Studies that analyze the diplomatic and political consequences of the Six-Day War tend to belittle or even ignore the tentative agreement reached between Soviet foreign minister Andrei Gromyko and Arthur Goldberg, the US ambassador to the UN. This article offers a new perspective on the neglected Gromyko-Goldberg agreement and a new interpretation of its indirect role in bringing the two superpowers to support UN Resolution 242 that formed the foundation for future diplomatic efforts to solve the Arab-Israeli conflict, including the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt signed in March 1979. The article also illustrates the negative impact of the Cold War on the two superpowers’ attempts to solve the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Cross-border perception of Bayising (Pansheng 板升) among government officials in Ming China

The Mongol Yuan dynasty in China officially came to an end in 1368 with the withdrawal of the Mongols from the capital city Daidu (Beijing) and their retreat to the steppes. Nevertheless, a protracted series of military campaigns and conflicts between the Ming court and the Eastern Mongols, Oirat Mongols, and various other Mongol tribes continued for about 200 years. This article examines the discourse surrounding Bayising, where a group of Chinese people settled on Mongolian territory and served the Mongols during the mid-16th and early-17th centuries. The primary population of Bayising consisted of Chinese individuals who had either fled from China or were captives taken by the Mongols from China in border raids. Bayising embodies a unique interaction between China and nomadic communities in a transitional zone between the steppe and agricultural land, where conventional trading and tribute systems encountered difficulties in establishment. After the signing of the 1571 peace treaty, Bayising gradually receded from the focus of the Ming court. Through an analysis of historical documents and records, this article unveils the perspectives held by Ming officials regarding Bayising. Additionally, it probes into how these perspectives influenced Ming China’s foreign relations and national security policies concerning the Mongols. The emergence of Bayising was rooted in a distinctive historical context. Moreover, Bayising played an important role not only in shaping Sino-Mongol relations but also in facilitating cooperation between nomadic and agricultural communities in the absence of official trade channels. Neither repatriation nor military intervention proved to offer fundamental solutions to the Bayising issue in the ongoing confrontation between the Mongols and the Ming court. However, the establishment of normalised and stabilised trade, facilitated by a mutually beneficial peace treaty, emerged as a definitive solution that ultimately benefited both parties. This intricate interplay between geopolitical dynamics and cultural exchanges underscores the complexity of historical narratives, emphasizing the enduring impact of the Ming officials’ perception of the Mongols on regional stability and economic prosperity.

Об историко-цивилизационной и культурной роли философии в современном мире: Россия и Европа

When considering the relationship of history and cultural and civilizational processes with philosophy, a typology of two types of philosophy is proposed. More precisely, there are two types of philosophy of justice – “equivalence” and “qualification”. The first, unfortunately, is the most common in politics, especially European, Euro-Atlantic or rather Western, is one of the most significant causes of crises and wars, both in history and in modern times. It is the equivalence that, in fact, is synonymous with blood feud (talion), in which retribution becomes equivalent to a crime. In this case, each of the conflicting parties acts as a subject of law and considers itself an injured party. At the same time, one of the parties (as can be seen from the example of Europe when studying its history, especially the last 500 years of colonial history) considers itself to be the only source of rulemaking in the contractual coordinate system. Which in fact leads, without any exceptions, in the history and, most importantly, in the present, to the multiplication of conflicts and the rejection of peace negotiations in principle. Both the past and the present of the political, historical, civilizational, and cultural development of mankind testify to this. This is the philosophy of political solipsism. The qualification, or as it is called in Roman law – “humane justice in favor of freedom”, is more appropriate, as the experience of history in general and the historical development of Russia, in particular, with its multinational composition of statehood, which has preserved about 190 nations and nationalities during its centuries-old development, proceeds from the fact that the norm is not relative and it is not conventional, but has apodictic characteristic and it involves a long process of public-legal coordination of representative databases in the form of various socio-political relations (including conflict ones) in their correlation with the interests of conflicting subjects. And norms, the recognition of the universality and necessity of which on the part of the contracting parties is an indispensable condition for overcoming any crisis. This is the philosophy of political symphonism and synergy. When comparing the relationship between philosophy and history, philosophy and culture, it should be born in mind that it (philosophy) primarily carries the educational function, and at the same time the function of strategic planning, but not a predictive function. Otherwise, we get what can be called “parallel” or, as they say now, “block thinking”, unable to distinguish in the long term, medium-term, and even in the short term, the true and false types of progress, with all their consequences in the history of cultures and civilizations. Or what could be recognized as political solipsism, incapable of any interaction of cultures and negotiation processes in domestic affairs and international relations.