Precipitation Patterns Research Articles

Assessing the impact of climate change on spring discharge using hydrological modelling in Musanze District, Rwanda

AbstractClimate change has far-reaching impacts on water availability globally, with changing precipitation patterns and global warming contributing to increasing scarcity and unreliability of spring water in many regions. Despite this understanding, the implication of climate change on the hydrological system remains limited in certain areas, including the district of Musanze, Rwanda. This study investigates the effects of climate change on the discharge of 14 springs in Musanze using the hydrological model V2Karst. CORDEX data from two global climate models of CMIP5 are used to simulate the future spring discharges over the period 2021–2100. The results reveal significantly higher annual discharges in the RCP2.6 scenario compared to the RCP8.5 for all springs from 2021 to 2100. Nevertheless, no significant long-term trend in spring discharge is observed between the early (2021–2050) and late (2071–2100) periods. However, the intra-annual temporal discharge patterns are changing with a significant increase in the seasonality index for the RCP8.5 scenario towards the end of the twenty-first century. Additionally, for both RCPs, there is a notable increase in the number of days with discharges below 40% of the mean of annual discharges during the baseline period. The overall findings of this study suggest that climate change significantly impacts the future evolution of spring discharges in Musanze, indicating potential risks to the future availability of water in the region.

Sensitivity of surface water and groundwater contributions to streamflow in a tropical glacierized basin under climate change scenarios

Abstract While mountain water faces threats posed by climate change, particularly in snow-dominated and glacierized systems, the role of groundwater in sustaining streamflow in these systems remains elusive. Changing mountain headwaters, marked by reduced snowpacks, retreating glaciers, shifting precipitation patterns, and rising temperatures, pose a crucial question: what is the resilience of streamflow in these mountains, and what role does groundwater play in this resilience? This is particularly uncertain in tropical high mountains where the seasonality of precipitation and glacier melt govern streamflow generation. A glacio-hydrological model was created using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform to investigate cryosphere-surface water-groundwater interactions in the Quilcayhuanca Basin, in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca. The model was forced by in-situ meteorological observations and parameterized using numerous data sources and process-based studies in the basin. Model results show that during the dry season, 37% of streamflow is generated from groundwater discharge, increasing to 56% during the lowest flows. Evapotranspiration is the largest mass flux from the basin at the peak of the dry season. Precipitation, temperature, and glacier change scenarios were used to assess the sensitivity of basin hydrology to climate change and glacier retreat. In a warmer, wetter, and nearly deglaciated future, Quilcayhuanca basin streamflow is expected to decrease by 4-19% annually, with a larger volumetric change in overland and vadose zone flow than in groundwater flow. The range in values is more closely linked to uncertainty in precipitation change than temperature change. Despite a strong reduction in snow and ice contribution to streamflow with warming and deglaciation, the concomitant increase in precipitation can limit the changes in streamflow and groundwater flow, showcasing the resilience of the system to shifts in climate and glacier cover.

The influence of moisture on precipitation patterns across the Western Tibetan Plateau and its response to sea surface temperature warming

Abstract The distribution of water resources in sub-basins across the Western Tibetan Plateau (WTP) is of critical importance due to not only ecological vulnerability resulting from the extremely arid climatology but also the political sensitivities surrounding the international rivers. In this study, we utilize an advanced water vapor tracer (WVT) embedded in the widely used regional climate model – Weather and Research Forecast (WRF), to quantify moisture contributions from four main sources towards precipitation over the WTP region. We also analyze influences on other sub-basins in the TP for comparison purposes. We examine how changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during 2010s compared to 1980s have influenced precipitation patterns and moisture contributions over recent decades. Our findings indicate that terrestrial moisture sources contribute more than oceanic sources towards the endorheic TP region. Recycling processes originating from highlands area are revealed to play a greater role in contributing moisture over WTP compared to those from lowlands areas. Furthermore, our results demonstrate stronger agreements between wetting distribution patterns and distributions of liquid/solid hydrometeors rather than water vapor distribution itself, highlighting condensation/freezing as critical factors. Notably, we observe different responses within Amu Dayra basin compared to the main WTP when subjected to SST changes. This study focuses on delineating distinct roles of terrestrial and oceanic moisture sources in driving precipitation changes over WTP, while specifically emphasizing condensation process’ contribution to inner TP’s precipitation and highlighting moisture transport form oceans’ influence on precipitation patterns over Amu Dayra basin.

Constructing Long‐Term Hydrographs for River Climate‐Resilience: A Novel Approach for Studying Centennial to Millennial River Behavior

AbstractStudying the centennial or millennial timescale response of large rivers to changing patterns in precipitation, discharge, flood intensity and recurrence, and associated sediment erosion is critical for understanding long‐term fluvial geomorphic adjustment to climate. Long hydrographs, maintaining reliable Flow Duration Curves (FDCs), are a fundamental input for such simulations; however, recorded discharge series rarely span more than a few decades. The absence of robust methodologies for generating representative long‐term hydrographs, especially those incorporating coarse temporal resolution or lacking continuous simulations, is therefore a fundamental challenge for climate resilience. We present a novel approach for constructing multi‐century hydrographs that successfully conserve the statistical, especially frequency analysis, and stochastic characteristics of observed hydrographs. This approach integrates a powerful combination of a weather generator with a fine disaggregation technique and a continuous rainfall‐runoff transformation model. We tested our approach to generate a statistically representative 300‐year hydrograph on the Ninnescah River Basin in Kansas, using a satellite precipitation data set to address the considerable gaps in the available hourly observed data sets. This approach emphasizes the similarities of FDCs between the observed and generated hydrographs, exhibiting a reasonably acceptable range of average absolute deviation between 6% and 18%. We extended this methodology to create projected high‐resolution hydrographs based on a range of climate change scenarios. The projected outcomes present pronounced increases in the FDCs compared to the current condition, especially for more distant futures, which necessitates more efficient adaptation strategies. This approach represents a paradigm shift in long‐term hydrologic modeling.

Temporal Precipitation Variation and Leaf Stoichiometric Changes Mediate the Dynamics of Tree Growth Responses to Nitrogen Addition Over Time

AbstractNitrogen (N) addition can stimulate tree growth; however, the strength of this growth effect usually changes over time and the factors underlying these responses are not fully understood. Based on a decade‐long N addition experiment (by adding 0, 20, 50, and 100 kg N ha−1 yr−1) in a boreal forest, we studied responses of tree growth to N addition over time and explored the potential role of temporal precipitation variation and plant stoichiometric changes in mediating this. We found positive growth responses to N addition but this effect changed nonlinearly over time. Annual precipitation was positively related to growth under high‐level N addition; hence, a hump‐shape temporal pattern in precipitation contributed to the nonlinear tree growth responses. After precipitation effects were accounted for, the positive growth responses to N addition peaked in the seventh year and then declined for all levels of N. Later reductions in growth responses could partly be attributed to increased leaf N:phosphorus (P) ratio over time, especially at higher N addition rates. We also found an increase in soil acid phosphatase, the ratio of labile to occluded soil P fraction, and a decreased ratio in leaf N to P resorption efficiency with increasing N addition rates during the late stage of this experiment, suggesting increased P demand. Collectively, our results imply that changes in plant nutrient stoichiometry with cumulative N input may limit the N stimulation on tree growth over time, while temporal precipitation variation appears unlikely to modulate this effect under the atmospheric N deposition.

Intercomparisons of the Latest Precipitation Estimates from Satellite, Reanalysis, and Merged Products over Alaska

Abstract This study uses National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stage IV (Stage IV) precipitation data over the state of Alaska to assess and cross compare precipitation estimates from the most recent versions of multiple precipitation products, including satellite-based passive microwave (PMW) [Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS)–F17, Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS)–MetOp-B, MHS–NOAA-19, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), and Global Precipitation Measurement Microwave Imager (GMI) in V05 and V07], active microwave [AMW or radar; Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) in V06 and V07], combined active and passive microwave (DPRGMI in V06 and V07), infrared [Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)], reanalysis [fifth major global reanalysis produced by ECMWF (ERA5) and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and satellite–gauge [Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) V1.3 and GPCP V3.2] products. PMW estimates are generally improved in V07 compared to V05 in terms of overall bias, pattern, and capturing precipitation extremes. DPR and DPRGMI show low skill in capturing different precipitation features. ERA5 and MERRA-2 show the highest agreement with Stage IV for all precipitation rate metrics. AIRS and GPCP capture the overall precipitation pattern and magnitude fairly well, performing better than the radar and comparable to the PMW V07 products, although the geographical maps suggest that they provide a relatively smoothed spatial distribution of mean precipitation rates. The outcomes of this study shed light on the performance of various precipitation products over Alaska (partly representing high-latitude regions) and can be useful to guide the development of multisensor products.

Soil quality index: a tool to detect the sensitivity to soil erosion in an agricultural catchment from the Middle Atlas of Morocco.

Abstract The present paper focuses on the application of the Soil Quality Index (SQI) within the Tiguert catchment, situated in the Middle Atlas of Morocco. The studied catchment, covering approximately 10.2 km², experiences a semi-arid climate with irregular rainfall and is designated as an agricultural area, making it an ideal site for studying the intricate interactions between natural processes and human activities. The SQI developed as part of the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) project is tailored to the unique conditions of the Mediterranean region. In the case of the Tiguert catchment, SQI is calculated using a formula that considers topographical slope, horizontal depth of soil, parental material, and soil brightness. Consequently, the results depict a promising scenario, with 61% of the soil classified as “High Quality,” indicating robust soil health and resilience despite the challenges posed by a semi-arid climate. The 31% categorized as “Moderate Quality” underscores areas requiring specific management attention, while the 8% identified as “Low Quality” signals localized challenges potentially influenced by irregular rainfall patterns. Furthermore, the SQI results are closely linked to soil erosion dynamics, with higher SQI values associated with improved resistance to erosion. The dynamic connection between precipitation patterns and SQI over a 40-year analysis indicates the impact of varying rainfall on soil health. Extreme rainfall events correspond to higher SQI percentages in the “High Quality” category, while drier periods align with lower SQI percentages, emphasizing the dynamic relationship between climate and soil quality. A comprehensive analysis of SQI across diverse ecosystems in Tiguert reveals variations in soil health, emphasizing the importance of tailored land management approaches for different land use types to optimize overall soil sustainability.

Hydrological dynamics of the shire river: Insights from baseflow and recession analysis

The Shire River, a vital waterway in Malawi, plays a pivotal role in the country's economy, serving as a source of electrical power and irrigation for surrounding communities. This study investigates the hydrological dynamics of the Shire River by examining its flow components and the influence of baseflow under varying climatic conditions. Through meticulous baseflow separation using the Eckhardt recursive digital filter and recession analysis, Lake Malawi emerges as the primary contributor to the river's baseflow, sustaining approximately 80%–82% of total flows annually of which about 78% is contributed during wet seasons. Moreover, an inverse relationship between baseflow and rainfall is observed, highlighting the significance of baseflow augmentation during drier periods. Baseflow analysis of wettest and driest years further elucidates precipitation's impact on baseflow fluctuations, emphasizing the intricate interplay between precipitation patterns and baseflow dynamics. Therefore, to ensure the sustainable management of the Shire River, it is crucial to implement policies that support the conservation of groundwater resources and the efficient allocation of water during varying climatic conditions. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the hydrological processes of the Shire River, contributing to enhanced understanding and sustainable management of this essential water resource.

Pearl Millet (Pennisetum glaucum): A Climate Resilient and Nutritionally Significant Crop for Global Food Security

The environmental balance needed for agriculture is severely strained due to changes in rainfall patterns and climate change, as well as the growing global need for food. As global temperatures rise and precipitation patterns become more erratic, millets offer an efficient solution to the trade-off between food security and water availability. Millets are rich in nutrients and possess a special ability to endure extreme conditions such as heat, drought, and various other abiotic and biotic stresses. Pearl millet is a highly climate-resilient crop capable of mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change. Antioxidant gene expression, presence of a waxy outer layer and heat shock proteins/chaperons contribute to its abiotic stress tolerance. By adjusting its flowering phenology and establishing fast-growing roots, pearl millet enhances its water and nutrient use efficiency. Stable sources of germplasm in pearl millet that exhibit resistance to diseases such as downy mildew, blast, rust, smut, and ergot have also been incorporated into disease resistance breeding programs. Pearl millet plays a crucial role in nourishing the poverty-stricken populations due to its high palatability and rich nutritional profile. Various bioactive compounds pertain to hypoglycemic, anticancerous and probiotic properties that contribute to its health benefits. Biofortification in pearl millet offers a solution to address issues of micronutrient deficiency in vulnerable populations. Continued research and investment in pearl millet production not only bolster food security but also contribute to the resilience of agricultural systems in the face of increasingly unpredictable environmental conditions. Thus, embracing pearl millet represents a forward-thinking approach to ensuring food security and promoting nutritional diversity on a global scale.

Multi-scale assessment of high-resolution reanalysis precipitation fields over Italy

This study focuses on the validation of high-resolution regional reanalyses to understand their effectiveness in reproducing precipitation patterns over Italy, a climate change hotspot characterized by coastal sea-land interaction and complex orography. Nine reanalysis products were evaluated, with the ECMWF global reanalysis ERA5 serving as a benchmark. These included both European (COSMO-REA6, CERRA) and Italy-specific (BOLAM, MERIDA, MERIDA-HRES, MOLOCH, SPHERA, VHR-REA_IT) datasets, using different models and parametrizations. The inter-comparison involved determining the effective resolution of daily precipitation fields using wavelet techniques and assessing intense precipitation statistics through frequency distributions. In-situ observations and observational gridded datasets were used to independently validate reanalysis precipitation fields. The capability of reanalyses to depict daily precipitation patterns was assessed, highlighting a maximum radius of precipitation misplacement of about 15 km, with notably lower skills during summer. An overall overestimation of precipitation was identified in the reanalysis climatological fields over the Po Valley and the Alps, whereas multiple products showed an underestimation of precipitations across the North-West coast, the Apennines, and Southern Italy. Finally, a comparison with a time-consistent observational dataset (UniMi/ISAC-CNR) revealed a non-stable deviation from observations in the annual precipitation cumulate of the reanalysis products analyzed. This should be taken into account when interpreting precipitation trends over Italy.

Investigating reactive transport and precipitation patterns of calcium carbonate in fractured porous media

HypothesisUnderstanding calcium carbonate (CaCO3) precipitation in various polymorphs from nanoparticle size (amorphous calcium carbonate) to microparticle size (vaterite, aragonite, dendrite, calcite) is important for practical applications, including carbon geo-storage (e.g., basalt formations), hydrogen storage, groundwater management, and soil stabilization. Our hypothesis suggests that the interplay of Péclet numbers (Pe), Damköhler numbers (Da), and Supersaturation Index (SI) significantly impacts the evolution of CaCO3 precipitation in fractured porous media in terms of mixing patterns, spatiotemporal evolution, crystal morphology, crystal size, and clogging behavior. ExperimentsThis study takes a novel approach to explore the colloidal formation and precipitation dynamics of CaCO3 within a fractured microfluidic system. Here, calcium chloride (CaCl2) and sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO3) solutions were injected and reacted under varied Pe (0–11), Da (0–1), and SI (2–5). FindingsOur analysis revealed distinct precipitation patterns and mixing types, such as transverse, longitudinal, and incomplete mixing, providing insights into the behavior in fractured porous media. We systematically analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution of precipitation, demonstrating how Pe, Da, and SI dictate precipitation rates and spatial distribution. Additionally, the study uncovered a range of CaCO3 polymorphic forms, illustrating their evolution and coexistence. Morphological changes and crystal sizes were examined to decode nucleation and growth processes. Significantly, our findings highlight the relationship between precipitation and clogging in the fractured medium, offering a deeper understanding of reactive transport in complex porous environments. These insights are crucial for enhancing carbon containment security and storage efficiency in underground formations, improving groundwater remediation techniques, and developing novel construction materials through controlled precipitation processes.

Impact Pattern of Energetic Particle Precipitation on Polar Mesospheric Ozone

AbstractThe upper atmosphere of polar regions exhibits two distinct patterns of energetic particle precipitation that can lead to ozone destruction by ionizing the atmosphere: one is the energetic proton precipitation in the polar cap region during solar proton events (SPEs), and the other is the energetic electron precipitations (EEPs) in the auroral oval region from the radiation belt. In this study, we conduct case studies and statistical analyses of ozone observations from the Aura satellite to present the quantitative difference in the impact patterns of SPEs and EEPs on polar mesospheric ozone. According to our statistical analysis of 13 SPEs and 19 EEPs during the MLS time frame, the magnitude of ozone depletion during SPEs is greater than during EEPs. The ozone depletion during SPEs is more pronounced at higher geomagnetic latitudes and negatively correlates with the proton flux, while during EEPs the ozone depletion is more in favor of the geomagnetic latitude band of 60–70° but independent of the electron count rates. In addition, hydroxyl enhancement also exhibits different patterns during SPEs and EEPs, similar to that of ozone depletion. This study further validates the physical link between the magnetosphere and atmosphere and promotes our understanding of the solar influence on Earth's climate.

Inter-annual changes in transboundary air quality from KORUS-AQ 2016 to SIJAQ 2022 campaign periods and assessment of emission reduction strategies in Northeast Asia

Northeast Asia suffers from high concentrations of particulate matter (PM), prompting nations to actively implement emission reduction policies. This study evaluated the recent inter-annual changes in the chemical transformation and transboundary transport of PM over Northeast Asia, based on both ground and aircraft measurements, as well as WRF-Chem simulations, during two comprehensive campaigns: the Korea–United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) campaign in 2016 and the Satellite Integrated Joint Monitoring of Air Quality (SIJAQ) campaign in 2022, both conducted around the Korean Peninsula. Ground measurements in 2022 revealed significant reductions in air pollutants compared to 2016 levels. In the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, PM2.5 and SO2 concentrations decreased by 47.2% and 73.9%, respectively, attributable to successful SOx and NOx emission reduction strategies. Similar trends were observed in downwind areas, including Seoul, where PM2.5 and SO2 levels declined by 30.0% and 41.4%, respectively. WRF-Chem model results indicated substantial decreases in sulfates, nitrates, and their precursors in both surface and upper atmosphere in 2022 compared to 2016. Moreover, model-calculated gas-to-particle conversion ratios, which peaked in the Yellow Sea in 2016, decreased by 15% in 2022 and shifted slightly eastward to the western Korean Peninsula. This shift suggests a potential decline in secondary PM formation processed in the Yellow Sea, coinciding with reduced long-range transport of gaseous pollutants. A comparison of model sensitivity experiments, accounting for both bottom-up emission changes and meteorological variations, revealed that while weather and climate factors such as precipitation and pressure patterns between 2016 and 2022 contributed to the overall decrease in PM concentrations, the primary driver was the reduction in emissions during this period. This study highlighted that the main driver of the substantial improvement in air quality over East Asia was the implementation of emission reduction policies targeting PM and its precursors in the main source regions in China.

Evolution process of chemical weathering and sediment sources in the Makran Continental margin since the Younger Dryas

The chemical weathering processes and sedimentary source evolution since the Younger Dryas (YD) in the low-latitude arid continental margin have been investigated. Two sediment cores, MK07G and MK09G, were retrieved from the Makran continental margin in the northern Arabian Sea and subjected to analyses of major and trace elements, along with AMS14C dating. The results show that since the YD, the weathered parent rocks of Makran sediments have remained relatively stable, predominantly consisting of felsic rocks, with some contributions from mafic rocks. The Makran sediments exhibit initial to moderate weathering, with no discernible effects from grain size sorting or disturbances from sediment recycling, indicating primary deposition. Significant contributions of terrigenous eolian dust from surrounding continents (e.g., the Indian subcontinent, Arabian Peninsula, and northeastern Africa) were identified, along with riverine inputs from the Dasht River and fine-grained components from the Late Pleistocene Indus delta sediment, as well as proximal basin sedimentation. The evolution of sediment sources in the study area is significantly influenced by the Indian Monsoon and westerly wind systems, with intensified monsoon phases and westerly conditions correlating with increased fluvial input. Furthermore, chemical weathering processes since the YD are closely linked to local precipitation patterns, where intensified rainfall enhances weathering intensity. Records from the Makran continental margin indicate a teleconnection between chemical weathering and sedimentary processes in the Arabian Sea and Bond events in the North Atlantic, highlighting the extensive influence of Northern Hemisphere climate fluctuations.

Statistical Postprocessing of Week-1 and Week-2 Precipitation Forecasts over Taiwan

Abstract The predictability of precipitation is hindered by finer-scale processes not captured explicitly in global numerical models, such as convective interactions, cloud microphysics, and boundary layer dynamics. However, there is growing demand across various sectors for medium- (3–10-day) and extended-range (10–30-day) quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and probabilistic QPFs (PQPFs). This study uses a novel statistical postprocessing technique, APPM, that combines analog postprocessing (AP) with probability matching (PM) to produce week-1 and week-2 accumulated precipitation forecasts over Taiwan. AP searches for historical predictions that closely resemble the current forecast and create an AP ensemble using the observed high-resolution precipitation patterns corresponding to these forecast analogs. Frequency counting and PM are then separately applied to the AP ensemble to produce calibrated and downscaled PQPFs and bias-reduced QPFs, respectively. Evaluation over a 22-yr (1999–2020) period shows that raw ensemble forecasts from the GEFS of NOAA/NWS/Environmental Modeling Center, collected for the subseasonal experiment, are underdispersive with a wet bias. In contrast, the AP ensemble spread well represents forecast uncertainty, leading to substantially more reliable and skillful probabilistic forecasts. Furthermore, the AP-based PQPF demonstrates superior discrimination ability and yields notably greater economic benefits for a wider range of users, with the maximum economic value increasing by 30%–50% for the week-2 forecast. Compared to the raw ensemble mean forecast, the calibrated QPF exhibits lower mean absolute error and explains 3–8 times more variance in observations. Overall, the APPM technique significantly improves week-1 and week-2 QPFs and PQPFs over Taiwan. Significance Statement There are two significant challenges in improving precipitation forecasts beyond a few days in Taiwan. First, large-scale numerical models often struggle with accurately predicting precipitation locations, magnitudes, and providing sufficient detail. Second, probabilistic precipitation forecasts have been unreliable, failing to convey accurate uncertainty information to users. In response to these challenges, this study has developed a relatively simple yet effective technique that corrects the spatiotemporal distribution of predicted precipitation and downscales the forecasts from a 1° to 1-km spatial resolution. Our results demonstrate that this technique significantly alleviates these two issues, resulting in more accurate precipitation forecasts and more reliable probabilistic precipitation forecasts within a 2-week timeframe.

Temporal variability of spatial patterns of correlations between summer rainfall and the Oceanic Niño Index in the Pampean region

The Argentinean Pampean region is essential for global food security, known for its extensive production of soybeans, corn, and wheat. The November to January (NDJ) trimester is critical for rainfed summer crops, as precipitation during this period directly affects soil moisture and crop yields. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly its Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), plays a crucial role in influencing precipitation patterns in this region. This study investigates the spatial correlation between the ONI and NDJ precipitation from 1990 to 2021 sing a 20-year sliding window approach. We conducted Pearson correlation and cluster analyses to identify regions with consistent ONI-precipitation relationships. Our findings reveal notable temporal variability, with a general decrease in correlation strength since the window 1995–2014. This decline is likely driven by changes in ENSO dynamics and the influence of other climate variability modes, highlighting the need to consider factors modulating the ONI-precipitation relationship. Notably, the addition of the strong 2015 El Niño, which exhibited inconsistent precipitation behaviour compared to previous strong El Niño events such as 1997, contributed to this weakening. While the 1997 El Niño brought widespread positive rainfall anomalies, the 2015 event was marked by weaker and even negative precipitation anomalies in part of the region. This difference mirrors similar patterns reported in other parts of South America, such as Ecuador and Coastal Peru, and may be linked to a poleward shift in the jet streams during the 2015/2016 El Niño. The results underscore the complexity of ENSO's impact on regional climate and highlight the need for adaptive agricultural planning. By enhancing the understanding of ONI-precipitation dynamics, this study aims to improve long-term climate predictions and support sustainable agricultural practices in the Pampean region.

The Accelerating Loss of Resilience in Suburban Woodlands Can Largely Be Attributed to the Changes in Urban Precipitation Patterns.

Vegetation resilience holds significant importance for stabilizing ecosystem service functions in a changing climate. While global land surface vegetation resilience changes have been extensively studied, the impact of urbanization on the resilience of suburban woodlands remains inadequately understood. In this study, we utilized two critical slowing down (CSD) indicators, namely lag-one autocorrelation (LOA) and variance (VA), to assess the vegetation resilience, its long-term trends, and influencing factors in suburban woodlands across 1356 cities worldwide. The recovery rates estimated by LOA ( ) and VA ( ) showed close alignment in suburban woodlands with low suburban forest coverage (SFC) areas (correlation coefficient (r) = 0.95). However, a notable divergence was observed in areas with high SFC (r = 0.73). Suburban woodlands with high SFC typically exhibited lower recovery rate estimates, thus indicating greater vegetation resilience compared to areas with lower SFC. From 1986 to 2022, the recovery rates of suburban woodland areas in over 83% of the cities demonstrated a significant upward trend, with an average of 3.23 × 10-3 year-1 for both and , signifying a widespread decline in vegetation resilience. The accelerating pace of urbanization led to higher rising rates of and during 2010-2022 (5.11 × 10-3 year-1) compared to 1986-1999 (0.49 × 10-3 year-1). The notable decrease in resilience of forestland was primarily attributed to reduced precipitation in urban suburbs, which can be explained by urbanization-induced heat island and building barrier effects, causing a shift of precipitation center from urban suburbs to central cities. In summary, this study revealed that urbanization diminishes the vegetation resilience of urban suburban woodlands by altering urban precipitation patterns. These findings underscore the necessity of augmenting water availability in urban suburbs to restore resilience in these woodlands, thereby enhancing their ecosystem service value.

Impacts of Large-Scale Offshore Wind Farms on Tropical Cyclones: A Case Study of Typhoon Hato

Abstract With the rising global demand for renewable energy sources, a great number of offshore wind farms are being built worldwide, as well as in the northern South China Sea. There is, however, limited research on the impact of offshore wind farms on the atmospheric and marine environment, particularly tropical cyclones, which frequently occur in summertime in the South China Sea. In this paper, we employ the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to investigate the impacts of large-scale offshore wind farms on tropical cyclones, using the case of Typhoon Hato, which caused severe damage in 2017. Model results reveal that maximum wind speeds in coastal areas decrease by 3–5 m s−1 and can reach a maximum of 8 m s−1. Furthermore, the wind farms change low-level moisture convergence, causing a shift in the precipitation center toward the wind farm area and causing a significant overall reduction (up to 16%) in precipitation. Model sensitivity experiments on the area and layout of the wind farm have been carried out. The results show that larger wind farm areas and denser turbine layouts cause a more substantial decrease in the wind speed over the coast and accumulated precipitation reduction, further corroborating our findings. Significance Statement This study holds significant implications for developing offshore wind farms in tropical cyclone-prone regions like the South China Sea. By focusing on Typhoon Hato as a case study, the research sheds light on the previously understudied relationship between large-scale offshore wind farms and tropical cyclones. The observed decrease in coastal wind speeds and altered precipitation patterns due to wind farm presence highlights the potential for mitigating cyclone-related risks in these regions. Additionally, the study’s sensitivity experiments underscore the importance of careful planning and design in optimizing wind farm layouts for maximum impact reduction. This research contributes vital insights into sustainable energy infrastructure development while minimizing environmental and meteorological risks in cyclone-prone areas.

Use of Vertical Greenery Systems for the domestic scale treatment of greywaters for fit-for-purpose reuse. Applicability and future prospects.

Abstract Only less than 1% of the Earth’s water is fit for human activities. Domestic consumption accounts for roughly 20% of all uses of water, adding pressure to the increasing water scarcity stress. Water intakes of residential buildings for all everyday uses are constituted by a high-quality resource, which is either costly to produce or conspicuous in amounts to withdraw from natural sources. The present proposal aims to test the feasibility of the application of decentralized greywater treatment strategies, based on the use of vertical greenery systems integrated into residential buildings to assess both the optimal scale of application in residential settlements and a comparative analysis on reclaimed water resource savings. The aim is to promote the circular use of water resources by allowing for fit-for-purpose employment, thus reducing the overall intake due to the residential sector. The methodology hereby proposed has been developed using as a case study the most widespread residential typologies in the Southern Italian context, such as single detachment, row houses, low and medium-rise apartment buildings. The result is the proposition for each residential typology of a retrofitting strategy that employs the integration of a green infrastructure inside the residential spaces. Until now, the Mediterranean context has been characterized by limited use of strategies directed towards the efficient employment of water resources, since the mild climatic conditions have always provided for an adequate amount of freshwater. Therefore, limited studies have been carried out on the application of those strategies in Mediterranean landscapes. However, the rapid shift in precipitation patterns due to climate change has defined the need to quickly embrace new strategies, systems, and technical solutions for improving water use efficiency and promoting reuse.

The Changing Morphology of Global Precipitation Systems during the Last Two Decades

Abstract The morphology of global precipitation systems can enhance our comprehension of precipitation patterns and the underlying physical processes. However, several unresolved issues remain in the existing studies of precipitation system morphology. This study employs Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) (IMERG)-derived precipitation system dataset to investigate the climatological and changing characteristics of global precipitation system morphology from 2001 to 2022. The results show that precipitation systems with larger scales tend to be more flattened in morphology, while no clear differences in morphological characteristics are observed across systems with different intensities. In terms of geographic distributions, a notable land–sea contrast is observed, with land systems more circular than those over oceans. Due to the impact of the Coriolis force, the orientation distribution of precipitation systems shows obvious hemispherical contrast. Precipitation systems over tropical regions are more regular in shape and more likely to be organized convective systems. During the period of 2001–22, there is a significant trend of global precipitation systems becoming more flattened and are more likely to manifest as organized convective systems. Our results also indicate that the precipitation system morphology is under combined influence of subtropical highs, lateral stretching influences of wind, and the organizing effects of moisture transport and convergence. Moreover, the increasing flattening of precipitation systems could be attributed to enhanced atmospheric stability which constrains vertical expansion and increased moisture availability which favors wider horizontal extension. This study could provide new insights into precipitation changes under global warming.