Population Redistribution Patterns Research Articles

Moving up and down the urban hierarchy: age-articulated interregional migration flows in the Netherlands

The ‘age schedule of migration’ has been studied fairly extensively. Yet, its regional implications have received only limited attention. The highly cited seminal paper of Plane and Jurjevich (Prof Geogr 61(1):4–20, 2009) was demonstrated in a novel manner on the basis of US Census data that, when interregional migration flows are disaggregated by age, radically different patterns of net population redistribution are observable in the sense of upward and downward movements within the urban hierarchy of the USA. This study aims to demonstrate how interregional migration flows play out in a different geographic setting by replicating the methodological approach of Plane and Jurjevich (2009) in the case of the Netherlands, a country with a very different urban system and spatial population pattern to the USA. Our aim was to identify whether the differing geographical context leads to different upward and downward movements. The most notably marked flows or ‘demographically effective’ flows in the Netherlands are the movements made by young adults and older adults aged 75 and over. We also observe recently emerging differences in the migration patterns of retirees, with the ‘75 and older’ age cohort oriented towards smaller towns and rural areas, while the ‘65–74’ age cohort are increasingly oriented towards urban areas. In addition, we comment on the possible consequences of these differing patterns of age-articulated interregional flows when allied with the emerging demographic changes.

Movement behaviour of the carabid beetle Pterostichus melanarius in crops and at a habitat interface explains patterns of population redistribution in the field.

Animals may respond to habitat quality and habitat edges and these responses may affect their distribution between habitats. We studied the movement behaviour of a ground-dwelling generalist predator, the carabid beetle Pterostichus melanarius (Illiger). We performed a mark-recapture experiment in two adjacent habitats; a large plot with oilseed radish (Raphanus sativus) and a plot with rye (Secale cereale). We used model selection to identify a minimal model representing the mark-recapture data, and determine whether habitat-specific motility and boundary behaviour affected population redistribution. We determined movement characteristics of P. melanarius in laboratory arenas with the same plant species using video recording. Both the field and arena results showed preference behaviour of P. melanarius at the habitat interface. In the field, significantly more beetles moved from rye to oilseed radish than from radish to rye. In the arena, habitat entry was more frequent into oilseed radish than into rye. In the field, movement was best described by a Fokker-Planck diffusion model that contained preference behaviour at the interface and did not account for habitat specific motility. Likewise, motility calculated from movement data using the Patlak model was not different between habitats in the arena studies. Motility (m2 d−1) calculated from behavioural data resulted in estimates that were similar to those determined in the field. Thus individual behaviour explained population redistribution in the field qualitatively as well as quantitatively. The findings provide a basis for evaluating movement within and across habitats in complex agricultural landscapes with multiple habitats and habitat interfaces.

No More Work for Stakhanov: Migrants and Stayers in the Depopulating Donbas, Ukraine

Labor migration from the less to the more affluent cities and regions is a defining trait of the patterns of population redistribution in Central and Eastern Europe, especially in the former Soviet Union, where international disparities in income and living standards are particularly manifest. While these macro-trends are well portrayed in the literature, their outcome at the household level seldom figures in the literature. In Ukraine, labor out-migration to Russia is a frequently chosen strategy, not least because of the Russophone background of eastern Ukraine and of many of the major cities, including Kiev and Odessa. This out-migration contributes to urban decline. Using multivariate methods, we analyze the characteristics of population subgroups with and without the experience of working abroad. We also use descriptive statistics to assess the impact of migration events within households on the standard of living of the latter. Our data source is the city of Stakhanov Health Interview Survey 2009 (n = 3,000).

A Pure Theory of Metropolitan Redistribution Patterns: Modifications Upon Tiebout's Model

Tiebout’s (1956) theory about redistribution of population and the bundle of public goods, ever since, has been a major reference for many of recent endeavors to explain spatial redistribution patterns in metropolitan areas. In this paper, based on Tiebout’s rationale and by proposing major modifications on how his hypothesis would work better, I developed a theory of metropolitan redistribution patterns that improves conceptualization of current residential patterns in metropolitan areas. The theory clarifies that households do not relocate to solely maximize their locational utility, but rather residential mobility across metropolitan areas is an outcome of continuous adjustments in consumption of housing services and location of residence over the course of households’ lifecycles. Based on this theory, the discussion section provides a monocentric conceptual model and a multi-centric GIS-based model of population redistribution patterns that to further verify the validity of the hypothesis.

Ties That No Longer Bind? The Patterns and Repercussions of Age-Articulated Migration

Rates of geographical mobility vary greatly, and fairly predictably, across the life course. Our analysis of special county-to-county migration tabulations of Census 2000 data discloses that, when flows are disaggregated by age, radically different patterns of net population redistribution are taking place upward and downward within the national urban hierarchy. The movements at the late-career, empty-nester, and retirement stage are the most “demographically effective” or unidirectional. The elderly fleeing large metropolitan areas have been congregating in micropolitan and rural counties with special climatic and other natural amenities. The opposite net flow is found for younger adults, who have been flocking into megametropolitan conurbations. At the midcareer stage, the net movement is from larger to medium metropolitan areas. We detail the age articulation of county-to-county migration flows with novel graphical portrayals and statistical measures. We give some thoughts on the relationship between intergenerational dependency and migration trends, and we speculate about whether the current patterns of age-articulated movement up and down the urban hierarchy will continue as the baby boom retires and the echo cohorts come of age.

Inter-regional Population Migration in Russia: Using an Origin-to-Destination Matrix

This study examines regional economic conditions and their effects on inter-regional population redistribution patterns in Russia. After reviewing striking changes in population flows before and after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, an application of the gravity model to population migration in Russia in 2003 is presented using a newly obtained inter-regional in- and out-migration flow matrix supplied by Rosstat (formerly Goskomstat). Gross migration patterns since the year 2000, when large transformational population flows ceased, have not been investigated so far in the existing literature. The analysis conducted focuses on geographical factors, which have been basically omitted in existing literature on migration patterns in post-Soviet Russia, and the attractiveness of Moscow and surrounding regions and resource-mining areas is clearly presented.

International handbook of urban systems: studies of urbanization and migration in advanced and developing countries

This authoritative handbook provides a comprehensive account of migration and economic development throughout the world, in both developed and developing countries. Some of the world's most experienced researchers in this field look at how population redistribution patterns have impacted on urban development in a wide selection of advanced and developing countries in all the major regions of the world over the past half century. The study results show that, despite local differences there are signs of remarkable similarities in the underlying forces that drive the migration process and urban development across the development spectrum.

Population deconcentration in Hungary during the post-socialist transformation

This paper investigates the patterns of population redistribution in contemporary Hungary to better understand the demographic articulations of post-socialist restructuring. We analyze published data for 1980–1997, and machine-readable municipal-level data for 1990–1997 to find that post-socialist restructuring coincides with pronounced population deconcentration after several decades of steady urbanization. While suburbanization accounts for much of this deconcentration, many of the more remote villages in the nation's rural periphery also experienced net in-migration. Our findings call into question the ways in which population deconcentration may be thought of as a social indicator, raise important empirical questions about the attractiveness of remote places as resettlement locations for economically marginal populations, and assert the relevance of demographic analysis for coming to more complete understandings of the effects and implications of post-socialist restructuring.

Urban Population Change in Large Cities in Germany, 1980-94

The populations of the large cities of the former Federal Republic of Germany (cities with at least 100 000 inhabitants) have been characterised by a continuing downward trend since the beginning of the 1980s. The number of inhabitants, which had already been decreasing during the 1970s, had registered a loss of 3.6 per cent by 1987. Subsequently, however, the trend reversed and, from 1988 to 1994, the population of the large cities in West Germany increased by about 6 per cent. Does this reversal indicate the beginning of a process of reurbanisation and, in cyclic terms, has the urban development changed to more traditional patterns of population redistribution? The increase in population in the large cities around 1990 was rather different from former urbanisation processes. The concentration was a temporary phenomenon and affected predominantly persons of foreign nationality, whereas the German population was still going through a deconcentration process. There are several contributing factors, including the political upheavals in eastern Europe, the accelerated economic restructuring in the 1980s and improvements in communication and transport technology. Globalisation with its worldwide expansion of communication networks also played a role, allocating gateway functions to larger centres in favourable locations. The paper analyses the effects of urban economy and city size on the balances of migration movements of the large cities in West Germany since 1980, especially on the different distribution patterns of the German and foreign populations.

Japan's population redistribution: A comparison with the United States

The purposes of this paper are, first, to analyze population distribution changes 1965-95 in Japan by four categories-the existing metropolitan area; new suburbs; new metropolitan area; and non-metropolitan area-by using the Hoover index, and, second, to compare the results obtained for Japan with those for the US presented in Nucci and Long (1995) and Long and Nucci (1997). To clarify the temporal changes in population distribution, the delineation of metropolitan areas needs to employ a floating principle rather than a fixed one, and the definition of metropolitan areas should be similar to that of Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA) used in the US. To meet these conditions, the Standard Metropolitan Employment Areas (SMEA) advocated by H. Yamada and K. Tokuoka are used in this article.In Japan, during the period 1965-75, there occurred a considerable population concentration due to a marked population increase in the old suburbs located in the core regions (such as Kanto, Tokai and Kinki) and to a large population decrease in non-metropolitan areas in the peripheral regions (such as Hokkaido, Tohoku, Hokuriku, Chugoku, Shikoku and Kyushu). During the period 1975-85, the difference between the population change rates of the core and the periphery levelled off. However, in the peripheral regions, the main category of population growth was the old central cities and depopulation in non-metropolitan areas continued. In the core regions, the category showing the largest rate of increase shifted from the old suburbs to the newly-added suburbs, implying population deconcentration from the old SMEAs. During 1985-95, deconcentration proceeded further in the core portion of the country. Meanwhile, in the peripheral regions, whereas the category showing the largest rate of increase finally shifted from the old SMEAs to the newer suburbs, non-metropolitan areas returned to recording a heavy population decrease.With respect to the 1965-95 period as a whole, the population increase in the newer SMEAs created in the non-metropolitan areas was negligible. Bearing in mind the depopulation of the non-SMEAs, this means that we cannot regard the overall trend of population redistribution as being counterurbanization.With regard to the Japan-US comparison, population deconcentration in the old metropolitan areas is common to both countries, but the following remarkable differences can be noted. First, in the US, the contribution of the new metropolitan areas created in the non-metropolitan areas to urbanization is more conspicuous than that of the new suburbs added to the old metropolitan areas. Second, whereas a clean break with the past in terms of population redistribution was found in the US, such a phenomenon was not observed in Japan. Third, in Japan, population growth in the core regions and depopulation in the peripheral regions are found throughout the period, whereas in the US, both types of region take on different change aspects and the spatial patterns of population redistribution are far more complicated.

Internal migration and urban change in Poland.

The paper investigates population change and migration over the period 1984–1994 for communes. There are important conclusions emerging from this study. The first is that we are watching now a profound change of population redistribution patterns in Poland. We observed that direct upwards hierarchical mobility has been markedly modified. The first modification is the substantial reduction of migration from rural to urban locations. There were important changes in the role of cities and towns. Largest cities, massive gainers of the seventies and eighties, have tended to lose population in the mid-nineties. It is likely that they lose population mainly to the neighbouring communes. We believe that a suburbanization process has been put into motion. Medium to large sized towns and cities, in the range between 50,000 and 500,000 as well as small, but not the smallest, towns attract substantial parts of the migration pool.

The new regional map of Europe

This paper examines patterns of production and population change at the regional level across the whole of Western Europe between 1960 and 1990. It is based largely on the analysis of a regional dataset containing details of GDP, economic structure, employment and population change. The main aims are to monitor the extent and nature of regional differentiation, to examine the trajectories of the different types of regions and to explore the degree of correspondence between the regional economic trends and the changing patterns of population distribution. A 13-fold regional typology is derived from an examination of the production structures of 516 regions. This typology is used alongside country-level analyses to explore the trends towards convergence and divergence in regional economies since 1960 and to examine the degree of linkage between each structural features and the patterns of population redistribution. The relative lack of sensitivity of migration to the continuing economic differentials in the 1980s is linked to several factors, including more general unemployment, changes in labour-market processes and the increasing role of non-employment factors in decisions about where to live. These, together with the emergence of new economic, demographic and political developments, suggest that the forces now operating on the regional map of Europe are now very different from those of 30 years ago. Copyright © 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Changing patterns of interregional migration and population redistribution in the United States : a cohort perspective

Évolution des migrations interrégionales et de la redistribution de la population aux États-Unis : une approche longitudinale. Au cours des dernières décennies, les démographes se sont intéressés à l'effet de la taille relative des générations sur la fécondité. Cet article examine l'effet de la taille relative des générations sur le niveau, la structure spatiale et la composition par âge des migrations interrégionales des jeunes adultes aux États-Unis. Le but de cet article est de tester certaines des hypothèses avancées par Plane et Rogerson dans un article récent sur ce sujet. Trois générations sont étudiées sur trois intervalles de temps : 1935-1940, 1955-1960, 1975-1980. S'ap- puyant sur le fait bien documenté maintenant selon lequel le lieu de naissance exerce une influence sur le comportement migratoire, les migrations de retour vers le lieu de naissance sont distinguées de l'ensemble des migrations. La taille relative des générations s'avère avoir un effet sur le niveau et la composition par âge des migrations. Par contre, l'effet sur la structure spatiale n'est pas clair puisque différents indices de concentration spatiale présentent différentes évolutions au cours des trois périodes de temps examinées.

HISPANIC MIGRATION AND POPULATION REDISTRIBUTION IN THE UNITED STATES∗

The US Hispanic population has grown rapidly over the last two decades and remains geographically concentrated in nine states. Redistribution away from core states through internal migration has been largely offset by heavy immigration to traditional areas of Hispanic concentration. Geographical patterns of Hispanic miration show broad similarities to overall patterns of population redistribution in the United States. New York and California serve as key spatial redistributors or pivots in the Hispanic migration system.

Sources of change in the process of population redistribution in the United States, 1955-1980.

"A framework for the investigation of changes in a continuing process of population redistribution [in the United States] is introduced in this paper.... Changes in migration behavior are the major source of change in redistribution patterns, and incremental logit models are used to test the hypothesis that changes in migration behavior are responsive to changes in the localization of employment and changes in the demography of the population.... The results support the hypothesis that patterns of population redistribution in the 1970s differed substantially from the patterns of earlier decades." Data are from official and other published sources.

Migration and the phases of population redistribution

Major phases of population redistribution include initial urbanization, frontier expansion, traditional urbanization, overurbanization, suburbanization, and metropolitan-to-non-metropolitan turnaround. These major phases are associated with shifts in population settlement patterns as population concentrates in urban centers in response to the need for greater social and economic interaction during the early stages of development and then deconcentrates as improved transportation and communication permit much of the increased interaction to be performed at a distance. While much migration occurs during these major phases of population redistribution, some aspects of migration involve relatively minor shifts in population within a given settlement pattern. Other migration flows may lead to no population shifts but are important to study as ‘turnover’ migration providing an indication of the degree of integration of the labor markets throughout the society. Migration, population redistribution, and population settlement patterns are closely related phenomena that would benefit from a unified theoretical framework.

A Systemic Demographic Efficiency Analysis of U.S. Interstate Population Exchange, 1935-1980

"Evolving patterns of population redistribution within the United States are examined for the period 1935 to 1980. The demographic efficiency measure is employed to assess the compensating or non-compensating nature of migration to and from each state. This measure is then extended in order to examine the entire system of state-to-state movement streams. Using the analytical technique of Q-analysis, systemic change is shown to have taken place. It is argued that the geographic pattern change reflects a nexus of economic and societal trends associated with post-industrialism."

Migration planning: the case for Tunisia

Many government policies indirectly influence migration patterns, yet relatively few governments have sought to relate these diverse influences in such a way as to form an integrated migration strategy. The situation is illustrated from the Tunisian experience. It is agreed that knowledge gained from spatial analysis of migration systems can be directly applied to increasing the efficiency of government investments designed to temporarily modify the orientation and volume of migration flows. From a review of the possible measures available for altering migration patterns it is concluded that longer-term changes in patterns of population redistribution can be achieved only by migration strategies which either (i) seek to modify the urban bias in the aspirations of migrant populations, or (ii) plan to fundamentally alter the structure of national settlement systems.

METROPOLITAN AREAS AS REDISTRIBUTORS OF POPULATION

It is argued that the spatial patterns of place-ties collectively held by potential metropolitan-to-nonmetropolitan migrants are broader than those held by potential nonmetropol itan-to-metropol itan migrants. Consistent with this argu ment, it is hypothesized that metropolitan migration fields are asymmetrical , i.e., out-migration fields are more cosmopolitan than in-migration fields for the period 1965-1 970 within the United States. The hypothesis is accepted generally, and the asymmetry is found to be greatest for the largest metropolitan areas, some of which were also experiencing net out-migration during the period. It is concluded that the micro-level concept of place-ties and the macro-level concept of migration fields are important inputs to the understanding of population redistribution patterns.

Population growth and redistribution in Hong Kong, 1841-1975.

The authors analyze trends and patterns of population growth and redistribution in Hong Kong from 1841 to 1975. Causes of population growth, including migration, policies regulating growth, land acquisition, political circumstances, and conditions on the Chinese mainland, are examined. Population redistribution patterns are investigated with respect to geographical divisions and to changes in population density at district levels; factors influencing distribution variations are discussed