Changes In Land Use Patterns Research Articles

Global impacts of land use on terrestrial carbon emissions since 1850.

Since the Industrial Revolution, significant changes in global land-use patterns have occurred, which have disrupted terrestrial carbon emissions. However, the disturbance processes, change trends, and distribution patterns are not clear. Therefore, the changes in terrestrial carbon emissions (Eluc) caused by land-use change (LUC) since 1850 were analyzed in this study. The results showed that, owing to the sharp decrease in forestland (-13.39%; 84.26×105km2) and significant increases in built-up land (+1360.4%; 7.21×105km2), cropland (+175.8%; 130.88×105km2), and grassland (+162.6%; 239.73×105km2), the global Eluc increased from 0.42 Pg C in 1850 to 11.05 Pg C in 2018, with an average annual increase of approximately 3.42 Pg C yr-1, while the average annual carbon emissions after the 21st century reached 9.65 Pg C yr-1. Among them, direct Eluc increased by approximately 0.80 Pg C yr-1 and indirect Eluc increased by 2.62 Pg C yr-1. In addition, from 1850 to 2018, global Eluc was approximately 578.26 Pg C, with North America, Europe, and Asia being the largest regional sources. Our results highlight the changing trend and distribution pattern of global terrestrial carbon emissions under the influence of LUC since the Industrial Revolution and provide a scientific basis for regional and sectoral formulation of low-carbon emission-reduction policies and planning of low-carbon land-use patterns.

Interaction of population density and slope will exacerbate spatiotemporal changes in land use and landscape patterns in mountain city

The complex topography of the mountain cities leads to uneven distribution of land resources. Currently, available studies mainly focuse on land use and landscape patterns (LU and LP) in plains or plateaus. Thus, it is necessary to carry out an analysis of the drivers of changes in LU and LP in mountain cities. As the typical mountain city in China, Chongqing has changed significantly of land use in recent years. Here, we identified LU and LP changes from 2000 to 2020, and explored their drivers using GeoDetector in Yubei District, Chongqing. The following are the outcomes: (1) From 2000 to 2020, construction land, wetland and cropland had the greatest change in area, with 876.03%, -70.72% and -24.53%, respectively. The area of cropland transferred out was larger than the area transferred into it, while cropland still the largest among all land use types. (2) At the landscape level,construction landscape was at a low level. Grassland had the greatest degree of fragmentation, but showed a decreasing trend. The landscape’s complexity resulted from the conversion of various land uses. (3) The results of GeoDetector indicated that the interaction of population density and slope was the primary LU and LP changing factor. The results of the study provided a rational basis for the development of land use and landscape plans in the mountain cities.

Integrating Sustainable Development Goals into Urban Planning to Advance Sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Barriers and Practical Solutions from the Case Study of Moundou, Chad

The accelerating pace of urbanization, coupled with changes in land-use patterns and the exacerbation of extreme climatic events—marked by heightened unpredictability and severity, particularly in regions of the Global South—necessitates a thorough reevaluation of urban governance and management frameworks. In response to these challenges, it is essential for strategies to integrate local socio-economic specificities while navigating the inherent complexities of these issues, leveraging contextually appropriate resources within a sustainability paradigm. In this regard, contextualizing and incorporating the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) into urban planning frameworks is crucial for advancing urban sustainability. However, significant obstacles hinder their effective integration at the urban scale, particularly in fast-evolving, resource-constrained settings. This study seeks to address this critical gap by systematically examining the barriers to SDG integration in urban planning within sub-Saharan Africa. For this purpose, Moundou, Chad, is used as a representative case study, reflecting both the challenges and opportunities of urban sustainability in the region. A hybrid methodology underpins this research, combining in-depth interviews with key development stakeholders, a detailed review of strategic documents aligned with the SDGs, and semi-structured questionnaires to capture diverse perspectives. The results reveal that the institutional dimension constitutes 38.46% of the barriers identified by stakeholders, with key challenges including limited capacity for long-term planning, a lack of expertise, and inadequate multisectoral coordination, among others. In addition, the economic and socio-cultural dimensions each represent 23.08% of the identified barriers, encompassing issues such as dependence on external funding, the high cost of green technologies, low public awareness, and resistance to change within communities. Finally, the data access dimension ranks last, accounting for 15.38%. To overcome these challenges, it is essential to implement mechanisms that strengthen institutional capacities, promote cross-sectoral collaboration, enhance public awareness, and cultivate a culture of adaptability and innovation within local communities. Furthermore, improving data accessibility and reinforcing financial mechanisms are vital to addressing these barriers comprehensively.

Effects of Rising Rural Labor Prices on Land Use Pattern: Evidence from Grain Production in China

As rural labor prices have risen constantly over the last two decades, Chinese grain production that relies heavily on manual labor has been subjected to considerable challenges and has experienced profound changes in land use patterns. Using a fixed effect model and translog profit function model, this paper investigates the effects of rising rural labor prices on land use patterns in Chinese grain production. The empirical results from 2004–2022 province-level panel data showed that the rising rural labor prices provided significant incentives to adjust the land use patterns of three staple grain crops. The increase in labor prices had a negative effect on the share of the planting area of rice and maize, while wheat experienced a substantial increase in its proportion of planting area in the context of rising labor prices. A further mechanism test based on 2004–2012 farm-level panel data revealed that the factor substitutions, especially labor substitution with fertilizer and machinery, were a significant contributor to the changes in land use patterns. In the spatial–temporal analysis, changes in land use patterns were found to be more pronounced in regions with more rolling terrain conditions but remained relatively stable across years. These findings highlight the importance of the development and promotion of labor-saving technologies in grain production, especially enhanced-efficiency fertilizer and small-sized agricultural machinery. In addition, agricultural subsidies targeted at farmers in hilly and mountainous regions might be a good way to mitigate potential land abandonment in the context of rising labor prices.

Changes in carbon sequestration with age of trees in guava orchards at different locations in a tropical climate on Alfisols

Understanding changes in carbon (C) fluxes resulting from land-use change patterns is essential for formulating effective climate change mitigation strategies. This study conducted at two different locations focuses on the dynamics of carbon sequestration in guava orchards as a function of tree age, a land-use type that is increasingly prevalent in agricultural regions. Through comprehensive sampling in different agro-climatic zones, the carbon content stored in tree biomass, litter, weeds and soil layers was assessed, the evaluation of which provided insights into carbon levels in different environmental contexts. Carbon sequestration was observed to increase with guava orchard age, with mean carbon stocks of 106.84 t C/ha in Dhenkanal and 114.35 t C/ha in Rayagada. In guava orchards aboveground carbon accounted for 21.22% and 22.38% of total carbon sequestered per hectare at the recommended spacing of 6 × 6 m in Dhenkanal and Rayagada, respectively. Our findings provide critical baseline data on carbon stocks in guava orchards as a function of tree age, contributing to the understanding of the carbon cycle in these cultivated ecosystems. This study highlights the importance of region-specific data, and suggests future research to include guava orchards in other regions with larger sample sizes to comprehensively assess carbon sequestration potential nationwide.

The geographic scale of population-level variation in growth and nodulation differs for two species of prairie clover.

Prairies are among the most threatened biomes due to changing patterns of climate and land use, yet information on genetic variation in key species that would inform conservation is often limited. We assessed evidence for the geographic scale of population-level variation in growth of two species of prairie clover and of their symbiotic associations with nitrogen-fixing bacteria. Seed representing two species, Dalea candida and D. purpurea, from the same five source populations were planted into an experimental site in Minnesota. We assessed variation within and among source populations in plant growth and in numbers of nodules and evaluated the relationship of growth and nodulation levels. Plant growth varied among source populations, with greater differences among populations of D. purpurea than of D. candida. We did not detect a relationship between plant growth and distance of source populations from the experimental site. Populations of both species were equally likely to develop nodules at the experimental site, but the numbers of nodules were lowest for the most distantly sourced populations. Plant growth was positively correlated with the number of nodules, and this relationship varied considerably within and among populations. Environmental heterogeneity at local and regional scales maintains substantial levels of genetic variation in plant populations within remnant prairie preserves. Further, association with rhizobia at a restoration site can improve growth of widely sourced plant populations. The in situ maintenance of plant genetic variation and species diversity provides resources for conservation and maintenance of prairie biomes.

Sprawling Metropolis: A Case Study of Indore with Sustainable Solutions

Urbanization can take many different shapes around the world: it can take the form of low-density residential neighborhoods, business districts, or industrial estates that surrounds undeveloped areas. In developing nations, urbanization rates are rising, and India's urbanization trend demonstrates growth that exceeds national borders. The limited supply and high cost of land inside city limits encourage urban growth outside of established metropolitan boundaries. Urban sprawl, or the outward growth of cities into surrounding rural areas, is a major aspect of contemporary urbanization around the world. The phenomena provides both possibilities and challenges for sustainable urban development as it is closely related to rapid population increase, economic growth, and changing patterns of land use. Major geographical changes are happening in Indian cities because of the country's rapidly urbanization, which has been accelerated by growing populations, migration from the countryside to the cities, and economic growth. By 2031, it is projected that there will be more than 600 million people residing in cities in India, which emphasizes the urgent requirement to solve the issues caused by urban sprawl. The city of Indore, India, which makes a good example of the complexities of urban growth in India. Indore, one of the most rapidly expanding cities in the nation, has grown quickly in the past few years, particularly within the northeast region. This study explores the causes behind this in Indore, the challenges it raises, and how cities can be more sustainably designed to avoid these problems. Keywords-Urban sprawl, Urbanization, Sustainability, Sustainable Solutions

India’s Efforts towards Biodiversity Conservation: Ratifying International Commitments as a Way to Bridge the North-South Divide

Since ancient times, India’s rich biodiversity has been a feather in its cap. Thus, housing a rich and diverse ecosystem, India has placed biodiversity as the foundation of its climate politics. Being a signatory to many international conventions and protocols for wildlife protection, many laws, missions, projects and initiatives have been undertaken both on national and international levels for the preservation of rich biodiversity of India. The recent legislations have been proposed by the government in accordance with international agreements on biodiversity conservation to which India is a partner. Also, as a highly populated tropical nation, India runs the risk of protecting biodiversity because of change in land use pattern and other anthropocentric activities. The paper answers a popular question: How far has India’s ratification of international agreements towards biodiversity conservation bridged the North-South divide? Henceforth, the central argument of the paper is to analyse the two ways by which India sets an example of bridging the highly debated North-South divide: by insisting on financing the GS’ (Global South) biodiversity conservation initiatives at the international level while at the national level, promoting tourism, traditional medicine and preserving the habitats of the indigenous communities which are essential for a GS nation inhabited by diverse communities living near the dense tropical forests.

GLOBAL WARMING: A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF CAUSES, IMPACTS, AND SOLUTIONS

Global warming is one of the most critical environmental challenges facing humanity today, characterized by a significant increase in Earth's average surface temperature due to human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. This paper provides a comprehensive examination of the primary anthropogenic causes of global warming, including industrialization, deforestation, and changes in land use patterns. The burning of fossil fuels—such as coal, oil, and natural gas—for energy production and transportation has led to a dramatic rise in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. This surge in CO2 concentrations has intensified the greenhouse effect, trapping more heat within the Earth's atmosphere and contributing to the overall rise in global temperatures. In addition to carbon dioxide, other potent greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide, released from agricultural practices and industrial processes, exacerbate the warming effect. The expansion of industrial agriculture has significantly increased methane emissions, while synthetic fertilizers contribute to higher levels of nitrous oxide. Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion and urban development further diminishes the Earth's capacity to absorb carbon dioxide, releasing stored carbon and altering local climate patterns. The impacts of global warming are extensive, affecting ecosystems, weather patterns, and human societies worldwide. Rising sea levels threaten coastal communities, while changing precipitation patterns lead to more frequent and severe droughts and floods. This paper also discusses the interconnected nature of these factors and their complex feedback systems that amplify global warming effects. To address this multifaceted challenge, the paper proposes a comprehensive approach that includes transitioning to renewable energy sources, enhancing energy efficiency across all sectors, implementing sustainable land use practices, and fostering international cooperation through policy initiatives such as the Paris Agreement. Understanding these intricate relationships is crucial for developing effective strategies to mitigate and adapt to the challenges posed by global warming, ensuring a sustainable future for generations to come.

Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Measurement in the Peak Cluster Depression Basin in Southwest Guangxi Under Simulated Multiple Scenarios

Simulating the changes in ecosystem service value induced by land use changes in the peak cluster depression basin of southwestern Guangxi under multiple scenarios is of great importance for ensuring ecological security in the basin and enhancing regional ecosystem service value capabilities. Based on the CA-Logistic-Markov model, the land use of the study area was simulated under natural development, food security, and ecological protection scenarios in 2030. The ecosystem service value was calculated under each scenario using the equivalent factor correction model, and the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of the ecosystem service value in the peak cluster depression basin of southwestern Guangxi were quantitatively analyzed. The results showed as follows： ① Compared with the current situation of land use in 2020 and the predicted simulated land use in 2020, the standard Kappa index was 0.917, the location Kappa index was 0.952, and the numerical Kappa index was 0.958. In the simulation of the land use pattern of the peak cluster basin in southwest Guangxi in 2030, the CA-Markov model had high accuracy and reference-ability. ② Ecosystem service values in the study area for the periods 2000-2020 were 270.881 billion, 275.78 billion, and 278.332 billion yuan, indicating an overall upward trend. ③ The value of ecosystem services in the natural development, the food security, and the ecological protection scenarios was 282 138 million, 273 206 million, and 284 143 million, respectively. The study area exhibited a spatial distribution of ecosystem service values with higher values in the northwest and lower values in the southeast. In comparison to that in 2020, the ecosystem service value significantly decreased under the food security scenario, reflecting ecosystem degradation. Meanwhile, ecosystem service values increased under the natural development and ecological protection scenarios, signifying an improvement in ecological environmental quality. ④ Ecosystem service value hot spots and cold spots with high confidence had strong clustering and the hot spots were mainly concentrated in the northwestern mountainous area, whereas the cold spots with high confidence were mainly distributed in the southeastern plain area of the study area. The research results revealed the spatiotemporal pattern of land use change and ecosystem service value in the peak cluster depression basin of southwestern Guangxi under multiple scenarios, which can provide scientific basis for optimizing land use structure and spatial pattern and enhancing ecosystem services.

Groundwater flow system of the Abijata-Langano-Ziway lakes basin, Ethiopia

The Abijata-Langano-Ziway Lakes Basin (ALZLB) is situated in the Central part of the Main Ethiopian Rift. The availability and dynamics of groundwater in the Abijata-Langano-Ziway Lakes Basin (ALZLB) are primarily controlled by its geological and hydrogeological characteristics, shaped by volcanic-tectonic and sedimentary processes. The basin faces significant challenges, including drastic change in land use pattern, rapid population growth sustained by subsistence farming, over-extraction of water resources, and vulnerability to climate change and fragile ecosystems. These issues emphasize the urgent need for effective water resource management.To understand this complex system, a numerical groundwater flow model was employed to characterize the groundwater flow system within the ALZLB and examine its interaction with surface water bodies. The MODFLOW model translates the conceptual understanding of the basin's hydrogeology into a mathematical representation, allowing for numerical analysis. The model incorporates input parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and boundary conditions representing groundwater inflow and outflow. Steady-state numerical calculation was used to characterize the qualitative hydrogeological conceptual model into numerical representation and thereby describe the groundwater system.The calibrated model exhibited excellent agreement between simulated and observed groundwater levels. Statistical measures indicated a strong correlation (R2 = 0.98) and high efficiency (NSE = 0.97) in replicating the observed data. Additionally, the Mean Error (ME) of −8.3 m suggests minimal bias in the simulations. Further analysis of the histogram residuals revealed that a significant portion of the simulated values (65 % and 82 %) fell within ±20 m and ±30 m of the observed groundwater levels, respectively. This revealed the model's accuracy in capturing the groundwater system's behavior.The model identified groundwater recharge and constant head boundaries as the primary sources of groundwater inflow, contributing 445 million cubic meters per year (MCM/year) and 90 MCM/year, respectively. Conversely, constant head boundaries represented the most significant outflow pathway, with a simulated discharge of 519 MCM/year. The calibrated balance between inflow and outflow (discrepancy of −0.75 %) confirms that the model effectively simulates steady-state groundwater flow conditions. The calibrated model demonstrates the model's capability to accurately represent the basin's groundwater system.

Impact of climate change on cropping and land use pattern in Ramanathapuram district: A Markov chain analysis

Examining shifts in cropping and land use patterns is crucial for gaining better insights into agricultural development strategies. The present study was undertaken to investigate the dynamics of cropping patterns and land use patterns in the Ramanathapuram district of Tamil Nadu from 2004 to 2023, using Transitional Probability Matrices (TPM) to analyze changes across two distinct periods: 2004-2013 (Period I) and 2014-2023 (Period II). The results revealed significant changes in both land use patterns and crop stability. Forest retention dropped sharply from 89% in Period I to 18% in Period II, with substantial transitions to non-agricultural uses, while barren land retention decreased from 96% to 11%. Pasture retention declined from 91% to 28%, reflecting reduced grazing areas. Conversely, the retention of culturable wasteland increased to 100% and land under tree crops showed improved stability. Regarding cropping patterns, paddy remained the most stable crop, with 72% and 76% retention rates in Periods I and II, respectively. Sorghum and green gram showed instability during the first period, though sorghum's stability improved in the second period, while green gram remained unstable. These findings indicate a trend toward diversification in cropping patterns and land use. The study highlights the influence of urbanization pressures, intensified agricultural activities and shifts in crop choice, offering valuable insights into land management strategies and developmental trends within the district.

Trends in Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: Key Insights for Managing the Atlantic Forest Transition

Studies on land-use and land-cover change patterns contribute to better informed management decisions for the conservation and restoration of Atlantic Forest fragments and their megabiodiversity. In recent decades, the phenomenon of forest transition has been observed in several parts of the biome, including in highly urbanized and metropolitan areas such as Campinas, in the state of São Paulo. Here, we examine land-use and land-cover change (using MapBiomas data with 30 m spatial resolution) within the Campinas Environmental Protection Area, where natural forest cover increased from 9% to 17.1% of the total area between 1985 and 2023. Exogenous socioeconomic factors, including the gradual replacement of agricultural activities by tourism development and the designation of areas through successive ecological–economic zonings, are presented as possible causes of the decrease in deforestation and the stabilization and recovery of the remaining natural forest cover. Our analysis reaffirms evidence from other studies showing that secondary succession in abandoned pastures contributed to the forest transition process identified in the region. Strongly decreasing trends were identified for pasture areas and strongly increasing trends for forest formations and urban infrastructure. Based on analysis of forest formation transitions conducted at 5-year intervals between 1985 and 2020, we observed different patterns of net change between the local, regional, and macroregional levels and the state and biome levels. Our analysis of land-use and land-cover transitions for the most recent years (2018 to 2023), including the period of validity of the EPA Management Plan, indicates that the ecological–economic zoning instrument is effective in containing potential threats; however, it has limitations, since losses of forest formation were observed in all five conservation zones. We emphasize that, although we can attest to the effectiveness of ecological–economic zoning, which in the EPA region has undergone incremental adaptations favorable to the forest transition process, this management instrument is subject to changes in its limits and regulations based on the governance system established at its different levels.

Interconnected water scarcities and environmental amenities migration in rural Chile

This paper explores the repercussions of amenity migration on rural communities' access to water through a comparative analysis of three case studies in Chile. It examines the concept of rural drinking waterscapes to elucidate how access to water is dependent upon a metabolic process, wherein social, political, economic, and technical elements contribute to the construction of rural landscapes. This notion implies paying close attention to the daily practices of water access at the household level through ethnographic methods (multiplying interviews and observations), thus uncovering unregulated water habits and uses. The results underscore the pivotal role played by the State in shaping the desirability of these localities, attracting both capital and upper-class population influx. This socio-demographic shift triggers significant changes in land-use patterns, resulting in an amplified and diversified demand for water. The study identifies that water scarcity is a multifaceted issue, stemming from the intricate interplay of various scarcities occurring simultaneously across different scales. These include: 1) infrastructure scarcity, arising from households' inability to connect to the communal water network; 2) service management scarcity, induced by operational failures that reduce water pressure or increase supply interruptions; 3) economic scarcity, resulting from water organisation budget constraints or residents’ inability to meet water bills; and 4) overexploitation scarcity, emanating from the excessive consumption of groundwater resources. Notably, these different forms of scarcity are interconnected. The responses of local populations and governing committees are identified as central to this intricate chain of causation, as they can inadvertently create new scarcity scenarios and exacerbate inequalities.

Spatio-temporal patterns of land use and land cover change in Kibwezi West, Eastern Kenya

Kenyan drylands have over the years undergone extensive land use and land cover (LULC) changes due to population increase, urbanization, agricultural expansion, industrialization and infrastructural developments. There is however limited information on their historical and future spatio-temporal patterns. This study assessed the spatio-temporal LULC change patterns in Kibwezi West for the period 1990–2021 and predicted the LULC map of 2051. Six LULC classes (Forested land, shrubland, grassland, cropland, water body and other lands) covering 1,040.9 Km2 were examined. Landsat imageries (1990, 2000, 2011 and 2021) were classified using Random Forest algorithm in R software, while LULC change was analyzed using ERDAS Imagine. The 2051 LULC map was predicted using Artificial Neural Network and Cellular Automata algorithms. OpenLand software was used for visualization of LULC patterns using Sankey diagrams. Overall classification accuracy of 78.04% was obtained with 0.61 kappa coefficient. A net loss in forested land (−112.8 km2), shrubland (−54.48 km2) and water body (−0.688 km2) had occurred, with a net gain in cropland (146.03 km2), grassland (20.24 km2) and other lands (1.66 km2) between 1990–2021. Further, a net loss in shrubland (−110.48 km2), forested land (−89.1 km2), water body (−0.38 km2) and other lands (−0.32 km2) was predicted in 2051 while a net gain was predicted in cropland (176.90 km2) and grassland (23.39 km2). The study pointed out historical and future encroachment into natural ecosystems like forested lands and shrublands. The findings of this study contribute to the body of knowledge on LULC dynamics in drylands. These results will inform evidence-based decision-making processes for sustainable land use planning, natural resource management and environmental conservation efforts in Kibwezi West and other similar landscapes.

Assessment of Land Use Development Trends along Transport Corridors in Chennai Metropolitan Area

The Chennai Metropolitan Area (CMA) is a rapidly evolving region that experiences significant changes in land use patterns over time. Analogous to other Indian cities, these transformations are particularly evident in the periphery of Chennai's urban core, where substantial land use shifts have occurred between 2001 and 2021. These changes were assessed utilizing LANDSAT 7 Thematic Mapper (TM), LANDSAT 5 Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+) for the years 2001 and 2011, and LANDSAT 8 (OLI) for 2021. This study employs unsupervised classification to investigate major land use/land cover alterations. Findings indicate that CMA has undergone substantial land use modifications over the past two decades. Notably, there has been a marked decline in open land and vegetation due to extensive reclamation for urban and commercial development. The results demonstrate that the area covered by open land and vegetation decreased by 70.23% and 4.56%, respectively, while the built-up area increased by 56%. The study also identified a pattern of urban expansion primarily along the GST road, OMR road, and Thirupati highway. The research further examines land use changes by creating buffer zones at distances of 500 meters, 1 km, 1.5 km, and 2 km. The detailed analysis, along with the spatio-temporal differentiation maps and tables generated through geospatial data, will be invaluable for understanding the growth dynamics of CMA. This information will also support the decision-making process for local planners, stakeholders, and academicians.

Analysis of spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of land dividends in China.

This paper explores the classification, formation, measurement, evolution, and influencing factors of land dividends in China.It analyzes the nature of land value dividends and efficiency dividends, examines their spatio-temporal evolution, and investigates influencing factors via a regression model, providing insights for future development. The paper posits that changes in land use patterns primarily contribute to land value dividends, while efficiency dividends stem from improving land use efficiency within existing patterns. Presently, China is transitioning from a phase dominated by land value dividends to one marked by efficiency dividends. In terms of spatio-temporal dynamics, efficiency dividends display a fluctuating upward trajectory, whereas land value dividends and the overall quantity of land dividends demonstrate an initial ascent followed by a gradual decline, with the central region exhibiting the most pronounced changes. The analysis of influencing factors reveals a significant positive correlation between value dividends, the overall quantity of land dividends, and factors such as land transfer and capital investment, while efficiency dividends exhibit a significant positive correlation with urbanization. Consequently, the government should implement measures to sensibly regulate land quantity and layout, promote intensive and efficient land use, activate dormant land resources, and propel the optimization and high-quality development of land dividends.

SAR image integration for multi-temporal analysis of Lake Manchar Wetland dynamics using machine learning

The Manchar Lake wetland complex, Pakistan’s largest freshwater-lake, faces unprecedented ecological challenges amidst climate change and human pressures, necessitating urgent, data-driven conservation strategies. This study employs cutting-edge multi-sensor remote sensing techniques to quantify and analyze the dynamic changes in this critical ecosystem from 2015 to 2023, aiming to provide a comprehensive understanding of wetland dynamics for informed management decisions. Integrating Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery, we assessed changes in wetland extent, vegetation health, and land-use patterns using spectral indices and topographic data. Our methodology achieved classification accuracies exceeding 92% across all study years, revealing significant ecosystem fluctuations. Water body extent exhibited a non-linear trend, expanding from 318.5 km² (5%) in 2015 to 397.0 km² (7%) in 2019, before contracting to 369.9 km² (6%) in 2023. This pattern was corroborated by MNDWI values. Concurrently, vegetation covers dramatically increased from 405.5 km² (7%) in 2019 to 1081.6 km² (18%) in 2023. The Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) reflected this trend, decreasing from 0.61 in 2015 to 0.41 in 2019, before recovering to 0.53 in 2023. Land use changes were substantial, with agricultural areas increasing from 118.4 km² (2%) in 2015 to 498.0 km² (8%) in 2023. SAR data consistently supported these observations. Topographic analysis, including the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), provided crucial insights into wetland distribution and resilience. This comprehensive analysis highlights the complex interplay between natural processes and human influences shaping the Manchar-Lake ecosystem, underscoring the urgent need for adaptive management strategies in the face of rapid environmental change.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of landslide susceptibility under future climate change and land use scenarios

Abstract Mountainous landslides are expected to worsen due to environmental changes, yet few studies have quantified their future risks. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the eastern Hindukush region of Pakistan. A geospatial database was developed, and logistic regression was employed to evaluate baseline landslide susceptibility for 2020. Using the latest coupled model intercomparison project 6 models under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the cellular automata-Markov model, we projected future rainfall and land use/land cover patterns for 2040, 2070, and 2100, respectively. Our results reveal significant changes in future rainfall and land use patterns, particularly in the long-term future (2070 and 2100). Future landslide susceptibility was then predicted based on these projections. By 2100, high-risk landslide areas are expected to increase substantially under all SSP scenarios, with the largest increases observed under SSP5-8.5 (56.52%), SSP2-4.5 (53.55%), and SSP1-2.6 (22.45%). By 2070, high-risk areas will rise by 43.08% (SSP1-2.6), 40.88% (SSP2-4.5), and 12.60% (SSP5-8.5). However, by 2040, the changes in high-risk areas are minimal compared to the baseline, with increases of 9.45% (SSP1-2.6), 1.69% (SSP2-4.5), and 7.63% (SSP5-8.5). These findings provide crucial insights into the relationship between environmental changes and landslide risks and support the development of climate risk mitigation, land use planning, and disaster management strategies for mountainous regions.

City Boundaries—Utilizing Fuzzy Set Theory for the Identification and Localization of the Urban–Rural Transition Zone

This article examines the potential of fuzzy set theory for analysing gradual changes in land use patterns within peri-urban areas. The primary objective of the study was to propose a methodology based on fuzzy set theory for the precise delineation of city boundaries and the identification and spatial localisation of the urban–rural transition zone. The analysis focused on elucidating the defining parameters of this area and the scope of land use changes within the urban–rural transition zone. The analysis employed data from four discrete time points. The data were collected in 2005, 2010, 2017, and 2022. The characteristics of the urban–rural transition zone were evaluated through an examination of historical data and the current land use patterns in regions experiencing direct urbanization pressure. The study demonstrated that, although spatial barriers remain, the city’s development has continued at a consistent pace. Between 2005 and 2010, the area of land classified as urban exhibited a 10% increase, with a further 7% increase observed in the subsequent period, spanning 2010 to 2017. In the most recent period under examination, the urban land area increased by 9%, a figure that is consistent with the rates observed in previous years. These results indicate the stability of urbanization processes in the analysed city, while also revealing significant changes in the limits of urban development and in the intensity of land use. The research project concentrated on the city of Olsztyn and the neighbouring suburban areas, which are subject to direct influence from the city’s expansion. The area under study encompasses 202.4 km2 within an eight-km radius of the city centre. The authors of the study emphasized the necessity for systematic monitoring of changes in the transition zone between urban and rural areas. This is to ensure effective control of spatial development and ongoing adjustment of planning tools to effectively prevent uncontrolled expansion. The methodology used enabled the precise delimitation of urban development and the transition zone. This allowed for an in-depth analysis of changes in land use intensity.