Naked oats, a significant minor cereal crop in China popular for its nutrient richness, have experienced a surge in production in recent years, fueled by the escalating demand for wholesome healthy food. However, the dispersed and disorganized cultivation plan of naked oats poses a significant constraint on its industrial progression. Considering the dual influence of cultivation, management techniques, and global climate change on the production of naked oats, this study explores the potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution and yield of this cereal crop. Leveraging CMIP6 climate models (BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, CNRM-ESM2-1) and an optimized MaxEnt model (RM = 0.5, FC = LQ), we simulated potential climate-suitable zones for naked oats from 1990 to 2020 and forecasted alterations under various emission scenarios from 2021 to 2100. The model achieved an average accuracy test with high value (AUC = 0.945) in predicting suitable areas; with precipitation seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) (bio15, 21.70%) and topsoil pH (H2O) (T_PH_H2O, 21.00%) as key factors, both climate and soil properties have a greater influence. Simulation results showed that the climatically suitable area for naked oats increased under all scenarios, with the largest increase in the optimal growing area under ssp126 in the 2030s. The increase was 3.93% with an area of 0.77 × 106 km2. The study also compared the data from the main producing counties of naked oats in Shanxi Province from 2020 to 2022 for statistical purposes, and found that 39 counties were in high climatic suitability zones and 39 counties were in remarkably high climatic suitability zones. The agreement rate between planting areas and climatically suitable areas was as high as 97.44%. Further, the growing area expanded westward, increasing the production intensity. This study reveals the current spatial distribution pattern of naked oats, providing a scientific rationale for addressing climate change through multi-scenario predictions. Our findings have implications for optimizing cultivation layout and identifying optimal zones, supporting sustainable agricultural development strategies in China.
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