Sea Surface Temperature Patterns Research Articles

Skillful U.S. Soy Yield Forecasts at Presowing Lead Times

Abstract Soy harvest failure events can severely impact farmers, insurance companies, and raise global prices. Reliable seasonal forecasts of misharvests would allow stakeholders to prepare and take appropriate early action. However, especially for farmers, the reliability and lead time of current prediction systems provide insufficient information to justify within-season adaptation measures. Recent innovations increased our ability to generate reliable statistical seasonal forecasts. Here, we combine these innovations to predict the 1–3 poor soy harvest years in the eastern United States. We first use a clustering algorithm to spatially aggregate crop producing regions within the eastern United States that are particularly sensitive to hot–dry weather conditions. Next, we use observational climate variables [sea surface temperature (SST) and soil moisture] to extract precursor time series at multiple lags. This allows the machine learning model to learn the low-frequency evolution, which carries important information for predictability. A selection based on causal inference allows for physically interpretable precursors. We show that the robust selected predictors are associated with the evolution of the horseshoe Pacific SST pattern, in line with previous research. We use the state of the horseshoe Pacific to identify years with enhanced predictability. We achieve high forecast skill of poor harvests events, even 3 months prior to sowing, using a strict one-step-ahead train-test splitting. Over the last 25 years, when the horseshoe Pacific SST pattern was anomalously strong, 67% of the poor harvests predicted in February were correct. When operational, this forecast would enable farmers to make informed decisions on adaption measures, for example, selecting more drought-resistant cultivars or change planting management. Significance Statement If soy farmers would know that the upcoming growing season will be hot and dry, they could decide to take anticipatory action to reduce losses, that is, buy more drought resistant soy cultivars or change planting management. To make such decisions, farmers would need information even prior to sowing. On these very long lead times, a predictable signal can emerge from low-frequency processes of the climate system that can affect surface weather via teleconnections. However, traditional forecast systems are unable to make reliable predictions at these lead times. In this work, we used machine learning techniques to train a forecast model based on these low-frequency components. This allowed us to make reliable predictions of poor harvest years even 3 months prior to sowing.

Temporal and Spatial Variations of Potential and Actual Evapotranspiration and the Driving Mechanism over Equatorial Africa Using Satellite and Reanalysis-Based Observation

This study investigated the actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) seasonality, trends, abrupt changes, and driving mechanisms with global sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation patterns over Equatorial Africa (EQA) during 1980–2020. The spatiotemporal characteristics of mean ET were computed based on a 40-year average at annual and seasonal scales. The Mann-Kendall statistical test, the Sen slope test, and the Bayesian test were used to analyze trends and detect abrupt changes. The results showed that the mean annual PET (AET) for 1980–2020 was 110 (70) mm. Seasonal mean PET (AET) values were 112 (72) in summer, 110 (85) in autumn, 109 (84) in winter, and 110 (58) in spring. The MK test showed an increasing (decreasing) rate, and the Sen slope identified upward (downward) at a rate of 0.35 (0.05) mm yr−10. The PET and AET abrupt change points were observed to happen in 1995 and 2000. Both dry and wet regions showed observed weak (strong) correlation coefficient values of 0.3 (0.8) between PET/AET and climate factors, but significant spatiotemporal differences existed. Generally, air temperature, soil moisture, and relative humidity best explain ET dynamics rather than precipitation and wind speed. The regional atmospheric circulation patterns are directly linked to ET but vary significantly in space and time. From a policy perspective, these findings may have implications for future water resource management.

Internal Variability of the Climate System Mirrored in Decadal‐Scale Trends of Surface Solar Radiation

AbstractDecadal‐scale unforced climate variability associated with low‐frequency ocean (or coupled) modes can be identified within the time‐evolving sea surface temperature (SST) pattern. We seek to find a relationship between 12 well‐known climate modes of variability (El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, etc.), which are reflected in the SST pattern, and decadal trends in downwelling shortwave radiation at Earth's surface (surface solar radiation, surface shortwave radiation [SSR]). The analysis is performed using the pre‐industrial control runs (piControl) of 57 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 6. We find that regional SSR trends occur during periods when a climate mode is transitioning and show a mirroring pattern (opposite sign SSR trends) when the mode transitions in the opposite direction. Unforced trends in clear‐sky SSR are mostly driven by SST‐induced water vapor changes, while all‐sky SSR trends show a complex spatial structure with trends of different signs in different regions. Unforced SSR trends are generally weaker in simulations with climatological SSTs. The role of natural aerosols as another potentially relevant factor for SSR variability is briefly addressed and we find that constantly higher aerosol loads result in increased variability for clear‐sky conditions, but not for all‐sky conditions. The results from this study suggest that all‐sky dimming and brightening in different parts of the world are enhanced rather than suppressed by internal variability related to an SST‐pattern with the exception of India and China, where both effects are present. A practical application can be the planning of photovoltaic energy facilities given areas where internal variability is generally smaller or affects SSR in opposite directions.

Enhanced Influence of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on Spring Extreme Heat Events Over Mid‐High Latitude Eurasia

AbstractThis study presents an interdecadal enhancement in the interannual relationship between spring extreme heat events (EHEs) over mid‐high latitude Eurasia and winter sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central‐eastern Pacific (TECP) after the late 1990s. Comparative analyses of the two subperiods before and after the late 1990s show that the interdecadal changes in the winter TECP SST could be responsible for such changeable relationship. After the late 1990s, the winter TECP SST anomalies (SSTA) feature a central Pacific (CP)‐type pattern. The CP‐type SSTA cause an anticyclone anomaly over the North Atlantic through the Pacific‐North American‐like teleconnection, further leading to a dipole SST pattern over the tropical to mid‐latitude North Atlantic. The CP‐type SSTA and North Atlantic dipole SSTA persist well from winter to spring, and the North Atlantic dipole SSTA favor the propagation of the CP‐type SST‐excited Rossby wave train to Eurasia in spring. Therefore, the TCEP SSTA have a significant interannual relationship with the spring Eurasian atmospheric circulations and EHEs after the late 1990s. The above physical processes are further confirmed by the SSTA sensitivity numerical experiments. In contrast, before the late 1990s, the winter TECP SSTA show an eastern Pacific‐type pattern, which is related to weak and insignificant North Atlantic SSTA and spring Eurasian atmospheric circulations; consequently, the TCEP SSTA have a weak relationship with the EHEs variations during this period. The TCEP SSTA with one season leading can provide valuable information for the prediction of spring Eurasian EHEs variations in the recent two decades.

Environmental Control of Wind Response to Sea Surface Temperature Patterns in Reanalysis Dataset

Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) is characterized by abundant warm and cold structures that influence the overlying atmospheric boundary layer dynamics through two different mechanisms. First, turbulence and large eddies in the lower troposphere are affected by atmospheric stability, which can be modified by local SST, resulting in enhanced vertical mixing and larger surface winds over warmer waters. Second, the thermodynamic adjustment of air density to the underlying SST structures and the subsequent changes in atmospheric pressure drive secondary circulations. This paper aims to disentangle the effects of these processes and explore the environmental conditions that favor them. Two main environmental variables are considered: the large-scale air–sea temperature difference (proxy for stability) and wind speed. Using 5 years of daily reanalyses data, we investigate the 10-m wind response to SST structures. Based on linear regression between wind divergence and SST derivatives, we show that both mechanisms operate over a large spectrum of conditions. Ten-meter wind divergence is strongly impacted by the local SST via its effect on vertical mixing for midwind regimes in slightly unstable to near-neutral conditions, whereas the secondary circulation is important in two distinct regimes: low wind speed with a slightly unstable air column and high background wind speed with a very unstable air column. The first regime is explained by the prolonged Lagrangian time that the air parcel stays over an SST structure while the second one is related to strong heat fluxes at the air–sea interface, which greatly modify the marine atmospheric boundary layer properties. Location and frequency of the environmentally favorable conditions are discussed, as well as the response in low-cloud cover and rainfall. Significance Statement The main objective of this study is to explore the wind response to thermal structures at the sea surface under different environmental conditions using the latest atmospheric reanalysis. Recent literature suggests that fine-scale air–sea interactions affect a large spectrum of atmospheric dynamics, from seasonal to weather-type regimes. It is thus important to characterize the atmospheric response to ocean surface variability. Our findings describe the environmental conditions for which the two main physical processes through which the atmosphere responds to sea surface temperature structures are active the most and can guide the development of high-resolution observing missions and campaigns in specific geographical locations and seasons to retrieve data that can be used to improve parameterization in models.

Increased captures of the critically endangered leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) around New Zealand: the contribution of warming seas and fisher behavior

Five species of sea turtles are known to occur in New Zealand waters, with the leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) being the most frequently reported. In New Zealand all sea turtles are protected, but there are currently no fisheries bycatch mitigation measures. We describe fishery captures of leatherbacks from Ministry observer and fisher self-reported data. A generalized additive model (GAM) was then used to evaluate which factors might explain the observed year trend in captures. Between fishing years 2007–08 and 2020–21 (years starting 1 October), there were 217 captures of leatherback turtles, an annual average of 15.5. Reported captures increased substantially to 50 in 2020–21. Nearly all (97.7%) captures were reported from surface longline fisheries. Because of sparse observer coverage most captures (85.3%) were self-reported by fishers. Within the main fishery, just 9.4% of the vessels reported 94.5% of the leatherback captures, and one vessel reported 40.4% of all captures. Some non-reporting of captures seems likely. The GAM estimated a higher probability of capture with increasing SST from a constant-over-time spatial pattern of monthly sea surface temperature, and predicted the increase in captures in 2020–21. Much of the increase in bycatch could therefore be explained by the fleet moving into warmer areas where the probability of leatherback capture was higher. Capture mitigation measures could include restricting fishing in turtle ‘hotspot’ times and areas. New Zealand waters should be recognized as an important seasonal foraging ground for leatherback turtles where capture mitigation measures are necessary.

A new global coupled atmosphere-ocean wavenumber-4 pattern in Southern mid–latitudes during austral summer and its climate linkage

A new pattern referred to as the coupled ocean-atmosphere wavenumber-4 (COAW4) pattern has been identified in the Southern mid-latitudes during austral summer. This pattern consists of a wavenumber-4 pattern in the anomalous 200-hPa meridional wind and a wavenumber-4 pattern of the anomalous sea surface temperature (SST). The SST component of the COAW4 pattern, which includes the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole (IOSD), the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole (SASD) and the South Pacific Subtropical Dipole (SPSD), develops through air-sea interactions involving surface turbulent heat flux, surface wind, and ocean mixed-layer depth. The atmospheric component displays a barotropic structure. The sources for COAW4 pattern include not only the wavenumber-4 pattern of the anomalous SST over Southern oceans, but also the anomalous convective activities over Southern land areas. The COAW4 pattern is associated with increased precipitation over land in southern mid-latitudes, particularly in central Australia. Furthermore, the COAW4 pattern is linked to Antarctic sea ice cover in the Weddell, Amundsen, and northern Ross Seas. Plain language summary In the southern mid-latitudes, there exists a wavenumber 4 pattern in the anomalous 200-hPa meridional wind and a wavenumber-4 pattern of the anomalous sea surface temperature (SST). Previous studies have examined the two wavenumber-4 patterns separately, but their potential linkage remains largely unknown. Through statistical analyses of SST and atmospheric global data, we demonstrated that the two wavenumber 4 patterns could be integrated into a coupled ocean-atmosphere wavenumber-4 (COAW4) pattern in Southern mid-latitudes in austral summer. Additionally, we have investigated the sources of this pattern as well as its effect on precipitation over southern lands and on Antarctic sea ice.

Improved Predictability of Summertime Rossby Wave Breaking Frequency near Japan in JMA/MRI-CPS3 Seasonal Forecasts

Abstract The seasonal predictability of the Rossby wave breaking (RWB) frequency near Japan in July–August (JA) is examined using daily JMA/MRI-CPS3 (CPS3) hindcast data, which is an operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Although the RWB frequency near Japan during JA in CPS3 is underestimated in comparison with the reanalysis, interannual variabilities of the frequency are generally predicted with moderate or high skill for hindcasts, initiating from February to June. The RWB frequency forecast skill in CPS3 is much higher than that in the previous version of the seasonal prediction system due to the improvement in the model bias of the Asian jet stream meridional position. A regression analysis for the RWB frequency near Japan utilizing all ensemble members is conducted to evaluate the reproducibility of the increased (decreased) RWB frequency associated with La Niña (El Niño) conditions, as indicated by previous studies. The regressed anomalies demonstrate an anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) pattern similar to that of La Niña and a negative phase of the Indian Ocean dipole mode with the associated anomalous convection in the tropics. For the La Niña condition, the regressed geopotential height in the upper troposphere demonstrates negative anomalies over the tropical Pacific and positive anomalies in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, corresponding to the enhanced mid-Pacific trough and northward-shifted subtropical jet. The regressed meridional wind anomalies demonstrate a wavy pattern along the Asian jet over Eurasia, consistent with the relationship between the Silk Road pattern and the RWB near the Asian jet exit region.

Influence of the Northwest Pacific tripole mode on the mid-summer precipitation in North China and the regulation by the North Atlantic

The North China mid-summer (July) precipitation (NCJP) contributes the largest proportion of total annual precipitation in North China, with significant interdecadal and interannual variability. The interannual variability of the NCJP was further investigated on the basis of a study of its interdecadal variability and found that a sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in July located in the northwest Pacific, defined here as the northwest Pacific SST tripole (NWPT), can significantly influence the interannual variability of the NCJP, and that this relationship is regulated by the decadal northern North Atlantic SST (NNASST). Diagnostic analysis and the linear baroclinic model experiment indicate that the positive (negative) NWPT in July can excite an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) in the region centered on the Korean peninsula and an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) in the northwest Pacific off southeast Japan, thereby strengthening (weakening) the NCJP. When the decadal NNASST is in a significantly positive phase, the positive geopotential height anomalies it excites in the northwestern region off North China are not favorable for the connection between the NWPT and the NCJP. When the decadal NNASST is in a negative or insignificantly positive phase, the July NWPT and the NCJP have a significant positive correlation on interannual timescale.

Rainfall onset and cessation over Mozambique and relationship with sea surface temperature and atmospheric patterns

AbstractMozambique is highly dependent on subsistence agriculture. Thus a climatology of rainfall onset and cessation is derived together with their interannual variability and trends using gridded daily data and station data. Mean onset is found to occur from early to mid‐November over southernmost regions, mid‐ to late November over central regions and late November to early December over the northern and coastal regions while cessation is from mid to late March over southern and late March to early April over most of central and northern Mozambique. The two gridded datasets showed differences (~30 days) in rainfall onset and cessation dates over southern Mozambique with standard deviations of 20–35 days. Timing of early onset over northern and central Mozambique appears associated with both zonal and meridional moisture convergence and tropical extratropical cloud bands, while timing of late onset is associated with southeast moisture fluxes from the subtropical South Indian Ocean and uplift over the landmass. Early (late) onset appears to be linked to La Niña (El Niño), particularly over central Mozambique. Rainfall cessation over most of Mozambique tends to be early (late) during El Niño (La Niña) summers. The relationship of ENSO with onset and cessation over large areas in Mozambique may help farmers and other user groups in planning their activities for the rainy season.

Characteristics and Formation of Two Leading Marine Heatwave Modes in the North Indian Ocean during Summer and Their Implications for Local Precipitation

Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme climatic events that can have a significant impact on marine ecosystems and their services across the world. We examine the spatiotemporal variation of summer MHWs in the north Indian Ocean (NIO) and find that the whole NIO Basin exhibits a pronounced spatial variability as well as a significant increasing trend in MHW frequency. We show that the NIO has two leading MHW modes linked to two distinct sea surface temperature (SST) patterns during summer. The first MHW mode is associated with basinwide warming, which is preconditioned by a decaying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sustained throughout the summer by anomalous northeasterlies extending from the anticyclonic circulation of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). The combined effect of thermocline warming due to downwelling oceanic planetary waves, decreased wind-induced evaporative cooling, and enhanced insolation cause basinwide summer MHWs. The second MHW mode exhibits a zonal dipole pattern, which has unfavorable cooling conditions in the previous seasons. The second MHW mode is associated with a phase change of ENSO and is greatly influenced by the formation of an interhemispheric pressure difference (IHPD) due to strengthening of the Australian high (AH) and weakening of the WNPSH. The IHPD induces cross-equatorial southerly winds across the eastern Indian Ocean. These winds favor the transformation of basinwide cooling conditions into zonal SST patterns via wind–evaporation–SST and thermocline–SST feedback, causing MHWs with a zonal dipole pattern. These MHW modes have a significant influence on the distribution and intensity of summer precipitation in the NIO.

How the 1999 Climate Shift Has Changed MJO Propagation Diversity

Abstract An improved understanding of how the climate mean-state variation modulates MJO property is key to comprehending projected MJO’s future change. After 1999, the Pacific shows a mega La Niña–like cooling, enhancing mean precipitation and MJO variability over the Maritime Continent and the northern Indo-Pacific warm pool. However, how the 1999 shift changed MJO propagation has not been studied. This study has detected significant changes in MJO propagation diversity across the 1999 climate shift. From epoch period 1 (P1; 1979–98) to P2 (1999–2018), the number of standing oscillation (SO) events has doubled, but the fast eastward-propagating (fast) events have decreased by 42%, the slow eastward-propagating events have increased by 150%, and the zonal extents of the MJO propagation have shifted westward by 10°–20° of longitude. The SO (fast) events are often associated with a La Niña–like (El Niño–like) mean state. Therefore, the La Niña–like mean-state change associated with the 1999 climate shift has increased the chance for more SO but fewer fast events. The La Niña–like mean-state shift has also promoted the slow-propagating events from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific (WP) by increasing moisture content, convective instability, low-level convergence, and upward transport moisture over the equatorial WP. The results imply that the future change of the MJO propagation would critically depend on how the anthropogenic forcing changes the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature pattern, especially an El Niño–like or La Niña–like warming pattern. The existing uncertainties in projecting the Pacific warming pattern could pose a significant ambiguity in anticipating MJO’s future change.

Drivers of low-frequency Sahel precipitation variability: comparing CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble means with observations

Phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) both grossly underestimate the magnitude of low-frequency Sahel rainfall variability; but unlike CMIP5, CMIP6 mean historical precipitation does not even correlate with observed multi-decadal variability. We demarcate realms of simulated physical processes that may induce differences between these ensembles and prevent both from explaining observations. We partition all influences on simulated Sahelian precipitation variability into (1) teleconnections from sea surface temperature (SST); (2) atmospheric and (3) oceanic variability internal to the climate system; (4) the SST response to external radiative forcing; and (5) the “fast” (not mediated by SST) precipitation response to radiative forcing. In a vast improvement from previous ensembles, the mean spectral power of Sahel rainfall in CMIP6 atmosphere-only simulations is consistent with observed low-frequency variance. Low-frequency variability is dominated by teleconnections from observed global SST, and the fast response only hurts the performance of simulated precipitation. We estimate that the strength of simulated teleconnections is consistent with observations using the previously-established North Atlantic Relative Index (NARI) to approximate the role of global SST, and apply this relationship to the coupled ensembles to infer that both fail to explain low-frequency historical Sahel rainfall variability mostly because they cannot explain the observed combination of forced and internal variability in North Atlantic SST. Yet differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 in mean Sahel precipitation and its correlation with observations do not derive from differences in NARI, but from the fast response or the role of other SST patterns.

Climate change and pulse migration: intermittent Chugach Inuit occupation of glacial fiords on the Kenai Coast, Alaska

For millennia, Inuit peoples of the Arctic and Subarctic have been challenged by the impacts of climate change on the abundance of key subsistence species. Responses to climate-induced declines in animal populations included switching to alternative food sources and/or migrating to regions of greater availability. We examine these dynamics for the Chugach Inuit (Sugpiat) people of southern coastal Alaska by synthesizing a large body of evidence from archeological sites, including radiocarbon dates and archaeofaunal assemblages, and by applying contemporary knowledge of glaciomarine ecosystems, spatial patterns of resource richness, and ocean-climate induced regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska. We hypothesize that Chugach groups migrated from Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound to the Kenai Peninsula during periods of low sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to harvest harbor seals, which were seasonally aggregated near tidewater glaciers during pupping season, as well as piscivorous seabirds, Pacific cod, and other species that thrive under cool ocean conditions. During warming phases, the Chugach returned to Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound to fish for salmon and other species that abound during higher SSTs. Drivers of this coupled human-natural system of repeated (pulse) migration include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the dominant pattern of sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific that has been shown to generate step-like regime shifts in the marine food web; and coastal glaciers that structure the functioning of fiord ecosystems and support high levels of biological productivity. The culturally-constructed Chugach niche in the glaciomarine habitat of the Gulf of Alaska was based on intergenerationally transmitted ecological knowledge that enabled a resilient, mobile response to climate and resource variation.

Assessment of Large-Scale Indices of Surface Temperature during the Historical Period in the CMIP6 Ensemble

Abstract We develop a statistical method to assess CMIP6 simulations of large-scale surface temperature change during the historical period (1850–2014), considering all time scales, allowing for the different unforced variability of each model and the observations, observational uncertainty, and variable ensemble size. The generality of this method, and the fact that it incorporates information about the unforced variability, makes it a useful model assessment tool. We apply this method to the historical simulations of the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble. We use three indices that measure different aspects of large-scale surface air temperature change: global mean, hemispheric gradient, and a recently developed index that captures the sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in the tropics (SST#; see Fueglistaler and Silvers). We use the following observations: HadCRUT5 for the first two indices, and AMIPII and ERSSTv5 for SST#. In each case, we test the hypothesis that the model’s forced response is compatible with the observations, accounting for unforced variability in both models and observations as well as measurement uncertainty. This hypothesis is accepted more often (75% of the models) for the hemispheric gradient than for the global mean, for which half of the models fail the test. The tropical SST pattern is poorly simulated in all models. Given that the tropical SST pattern can strongly modulate the relationship between energy imbalance and global-mean surface temperature anomalies on annual to decadal time scales (short-term feedback parameter), we suggest this should be a focus area for future improvements due to its potential implications for the global-mean temperature evolution in decadal time scales.

Seasonality of Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Frequency over the Southern Hemisphere and Tropical Climate Modes

In this study, the author examined the tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the southern hemisphere (SH) and its relationship with tropical climate modes, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), during the austral summer (December–January–February; DJF) and fall (March–April–May; MAM). The correlation analysis between the TC activity and the global sea surface temperature (SST) suggested that an increased TC activity over the southwestern and southeastern Indian Ocean (SWIO and SEIO) was associated with a La Niña-like SST pattern, while an increased TC activity over the southwestern Pacific (SWP) was associated with an El Niño-like SST pattern. The atmospheric conditions accompanying the TC increase over the SWIO/SEIO indicated that a La Niña induces tropospheric cooling over the tropics with cyclonic circulation anomalies over the TC genesis region. Both the SST anomalies and the cyclonic circulation anomalies were significantly correlated with TC genesis parameters, suggesting that they contributed to TC genesis. To investigate the SST precursors, a lead-lag correlation analysis was performed. For the TC variations over the SEIO, an SST pattern that resembled the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) was statistically significant at a two-season lead. However, such a TC-ENSO relationship is seasonally dependent, with different patterns during DJF and MAM. These results suggest that the Matsuno-Gill response to ENSO is an important factor in TC activity but that this influence is seasonally modulated over the SH.

Temperature patterns along the migration routes of European eel larvae towards the south of the Iberian Peninsula

This study analysed the variations in sea surface temperature patterns along the two main migration routes of European eel larvae from their spawning grounds (Sargasso Sea) to the southern coasts of the Iberian Peninsula. For this purpose, monthly time series of sea surface temperature associated with theoretical locations along the migratory routes from January 1984 to December 2006 were analysed. The results indicate that regardless of the migration route followed, the temperature pattern was characterized by two periods of maximum temperatures. Likewise, in both routes, surface temperature anomalies indicated the presence of a regime change in the mid-1990s that significantly correlated with glass eel abundance anomalies in the south of the Iberian Peninsula. Along both routes, strong negative anomalies (mid-1980s, early-1990s and mid-1990s) were associated with positive anomalies of glass eel abundance. In contrast, from the mid-1990s, the negative anomalies of glass eel abundance were associated with a period in which the SST anomalies were clearly positive. These results support the hypothesis that SST is highly important for the recruitment of glass eels in the European coasts.

The Role of Coupled North Pacific Atmosphere–Ocean Interactions in Impacts of Tibetan Plateau Snow Anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract Previous studies indicate observed influences of autumn and winter Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow-cover anomalies on the winter Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection. This study simulates atmospheric and oceanic responses to persistent autumn–winter TP snow forcing using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and a coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM), and quantifies the role of atmosphere–ocean interactions over North Pacific in TP snow effects. The AOGCM experiment induces a stronger and more realistic remote PNA response to heavy TP snow anomalies, and also a significant winter horseshoe-like North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) pattern resulting from an anomalous equivalent barotropic cyclone, or a strengthened Aleutian low, with associated cyclonic wind stress anomalies. The horseshoe-like SST anomaly pattern is used as boundary forcing (without prescribed heavy TP snow) in another AOGCM experiment, which simulates an enhanced winter Aleutian low and a PNA-like response similar to the original AOGCM responses, indicating that that the direct Pacific–North American atmospheric response to persistent TP snow forcing in the AGCM is amplified in the AOGCM by the North Pacific midlatitude atmosphere–ocean interactions. This suggests that the mechanisms of the winter PNA responses to TP snow forcing involve dynamical atmospheric processes such as horizontal propagation of Rossby wave energy and transient eddy feedbacks, and also North Pacific atmosphere–ocean interactions, which provide a positive feedback on the development of the remote PNA teleconnection. Significance Statement The Tibetan Plateau has a 2.5 million km2 area and a 4000 m average elevation, and is often called “the third pole” because of its polar-like climate in midlatitude Eurasia. A heavy Tibetan Plateau snow cover increases the albedo effect and causes tropospheric cold temperature and low height changes that can be carried or advected to the North Pacific by the prevailing westerlies. The purpose of this study is to better understand how Tibetan Plateau snow anomalies influence the North Pacific and the remote atmospheric circulation through numerical simulations. Our results find that those North Pacific responses amply the direct atmospheric response to Tibetan Plateau snow-cover anomalies. This greatly improves our understanding of physical mechanisms of Tibetan Plateau snow impacts.

Phase Shifts of the PDO and AMO Alter the Translation Distance of Global Tropical Cyclones

AbstractRecent decadal changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency since the mid‐1990s have been widely reported; however, it is unclear whether there have also been any changes in TC translation distance. Here, we show that long‐term decrease in global TC translation distance during 1975–2020 is caused by an abrupt change point around the year 1997. This change point marks a switch between an increasing translation distance during 1975–1997 and decreasing translation distance during 1998–2020. The shift in TC translation distance is attributed to changes in the distance between the location of TC genesis and land, and the percentage of landfalling TCs to all TCs, which is driven by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phase switch in the mid‐1990s. In the last 20 years, the cool, La Niña‐like sea surface temperatures (SST) during the PDO negative phase and the warm SST pattern during the AMO positive phase have enhanced the genesis potential index and the potential intensity in offshore areas, resulting in greater TC genesis landward. Phase shifts of PDO and AMO modulate environmental conditions, regulating TC genesis location and landfall frequency, and their combined effects on the translation distance of Pacific TCs. The warm SST anomalies during the AMO positive phase enhance these circulation patterns in two possible ways: via the Indian Ocean and the subtropical eastern Pacific relaying effects at a multidecadal timescale. Our findings suggest that the PDO and AMO act as key pacemakers for decadal changes in global TC translation distance.

Persistent La Niñas drive joint soybean harvest failures in North and South America

Abstract. Around 80 % of global soybean supply is produced in southeast South America (SESA), central Brazil (CB) and the United States (US) alone. This concentration of production in few regions makes global soybean supply sensitive to spatially compounding harvest failures. Weather variability is a key driver of soybean variability, with soybeans being especially vulnerable to hot and dry conditions during the reproductive growth stage in summer. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections can influence summer weather conditions across the Americas, presenting potential risks for spatially compounding harvest failures. Here, we develop causal structural models to quantify the influence of ENSO on soybean yields via mediating variables like local weather conditions and extratropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We show that soybean yields are predominately driven by soil moisture conditions in summer, explaining ∼50 %, 18 % and 40 % of yield variability in SESA, CB and the US respectively. Summer soil moisture is strongly driven by spring soil moisture, as well as by remote extratropical SST patterns in both hemispheres. Both of these soil moisture drivers are again influenced by ENSO. Our causal models show that persistent negative ENSO anomalies of −1.5 standard deviation (SD) lead to a −0.4 SD soybean reduction in the US and SESA. When spring soil moisture and extratropical SST precursors are pronouncedly negative (−1.5 SD), then estimated soybean losses increase to −0.9 SD for the US and SESA. Thus, by influencing extratropical SSTs and spring soil moisture, persistent La Niñas can trigger substantial soybean losses in both the US and SESA, with only minor potential gains in CB. Our findings highlight the physical pathways by which ENSO conditions can drive spatially compounding events. Such information may increase preparedness against climate-related global soybean supply shocks.