Socioeconomic Development Patterns Research Articles

Ecosystem services response to future land use/cover change (LUCC) under multiple scenarios: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China

Ecosystem service functions are significant in responding to future LUCC for urban sustainability. Unfortunately, the present works are absent from the coupling effects of resource utilization intensity, climate and environmental changes, and various socio-economic development patterns, failing to clarify the dynamic response of ecosystem service functions to LUCC. To address this gap, we propose a new integrated framework to achieve multi-scenario simulation of future LUCC and assessing ecosystem services from the dual perspectives of land demand structure and function. On this basis, taking the BTH region as an example, we first explore ecosystem services response to future LUCC under multiple scenarios, then discuss the impact of LUCC on ecosystem services across different situations, and provide recommendations and research directions. The main findings show that: (1) The coupling of the multi-objective programming (MOP) and system dynamics (SD) models can better predict the future development trend from the dual perspectives of structure and function. (2) The SSP126 scenario is optimal in terms of preserving farmland, forest, and grassland or restricting built-up land expansion, which aligns better with the development of LUCC under the coordinated development. (3) With regard to ecosystem services, the SSP126 scenario outperforms the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.

Understanding the evolution of cities through urban stocks: A comparative analysis of Andean and coastal urban areas in Peru

AbstractThe evolution of cities follows distinct patterns that connect to the cultural and socioeconomic aspects of their populations and can be understood by studying their urban stocks. This paper examines the evolution of construction materials stocks (MS) in the building sector in five urban areas in Peru. The study employed a bottom‐up methodology and focused on the city of Abancay in the Peruvian Andes, comparing it to the coastal cities of Chiclayo, Tacna, and San Isidro, as well as Lince. Additionally, regression models were employed to examine the influence of socioeconomic factors associated with urban stock. The research highlights a transition from residential building stock to distinct patterns of socioeconomic development, with urban population and economic growth emerging as pivotal drivers of material stock variation. Notably, large coastal cities like Chiclayo, Tacna, San Isidro, and Lince exhibit significantly higher concrete MS per capita, albeit with varying growth rates. In contrast, Abancay, with lower income levels, displays a higher per capita level of adobe MS, reflecting its historical connection to Peru's heartland. The correlation of urban stock components with the human development index (HDI) emphasizes the latter's significance in understanding the trends of the stocks of the different construction materials that constitute a city. By examining MS in various locations, unique Peruvian traits are unveiled, offering insights for urban development in the Global South. These findings provide valuable guidance for aligning urban stock growth and related environmental burdens with socioeconomic development, fostering sustainability, and promoting rational planning for economic growth.

Land use data can improve the accuracy of carbon emission spatial inversion model

AbstractInvestigating the spatial distribution and correlation characteristics of carbon emissions would be conducive to the policy formulation for precise carbon emission spatial reduction. Firstly, a new carbon emission spatial inversion model was developed, incorporating nighttime light data and land use data. After verifying the validity and accuracy of the inversion results, the continuous carbon emission spatial data in the Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei Urban Agglomeration (BTHUA) were acquired from 2000 to 2019. Then, the spatial distribution and correlation characteristics were further analyzed in the BTHUA. Finally, policy recommendations were proposed for carbon emission reduction and urban sustainable development. The results showed that the built model can improve the accuracy of the carbon emission spatial inversion data. The carbon emissions were low in the northwest and high in the southeast of the BTHUA, with a noticeable expansion of the high carbon emission contiguous areas around Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and other prefecture‐level cities, which was consistent with the socioeconomic development pattern. The center of gravity of carbon emissions moved to the southeast, showing a relatively stable distribution. The spatial correlation degree of carbon emissions among cities gradually increased, with Beijing and Tianjin playing a prominent role. As a scientific tool, the spatial inversion model helps to produce more accurate spatial data. The results and conclusions can provide useful and scientific references for spatial analysis and regulation strategies of regional carbon emission reduction.

Investigating the dynamic decoupling relationship between regional social economy and lake water environment: The application of DPSIR-Extended Tapio decoupling model

The water environmental problems associated with rapid socioeconomic growth have drawn widespread attention from the government and the public. Revealing the decoupling mechanism between the social economy and lake water environment has become an important breakthrough point to seek the pathways of sustainable economic development. To investigate the decoupling process of the social economy‒lake water environmental system, this study proposes a comprehensive evaluation model, which integrates the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model, projection pursuit method, and Tapio decoupling model; and then applies it to the case study of Hefei City and Lake Chaohu in China in 2021–2035. Three typical scenarios of current, social economy, and water environment are designed and simulated using the DPSIR model to evaluate the dynamic decoupling relationships under various development patterns. We found that the DPSIR indexes had a fluctuating upward trend from 2009 to 2020, with a synchronous improvement trend of the social economy and lake water environment. Meanwhile, the Tapio decoupling analysis showed that the decoupling relationships between socioeconomic driver forces, response strategies and the status of lake water environment was mostly strongly decoupled and weakly decoupled during 2009–2020. However, there was still an inconsistency between the improvement rate of the lake water environment and the increase rate of the response strategies. During the 2021–2035 simulation period, the DPSIR indexes of all scenarios depicts an overall increasing trend. The decoupling states of S&I-D&P and S&I–R generally tend to be consistent under three regulation scenarios. Among them, the water environment scenario outperforms other scenarios, and the social economy scenario performs worst. Overall, the decoupling of the social economy and lake water environment can attribute to both the transformation of socioeconomic development patterns and the increase of water environmental protection efforts.

Formation of the Russian model of evidence-based economic policy

The article records the fact that the economic policy of the Russian state is dominated not by scientifi c and evidencebased, but by political and opportunistic and purely ideological approaches. The introduction and long-term continuation of the fl at income tax scale of Russians associated with an attempt to implement the Laff er’s eff ect are perceived as an example of a false- and evidence-based approach in the implementation of fi scal policy. A major defect in the mechanism of state regulation of the economics implemented in Russia is the focus on global patterns of socio-economic development at the expense of using the specific patterns. This is expressed in the insuffi cient attention to the ratchet eff ect during the antiinfl ationary regulation of the national economics and the deliberately non-equivalent change of demand infl ation to proposal infl ation. The anti-crisis measures of the government by E. Primakov with conclusions about the need for their productive use in modern conditions to improve the quality of evidence-based economic policy are considered a signifi cant component of the Russian register of the "best practices".

Комплементарность парадигм управления, используемых при разработке стратегии социально-экономического развития региона

The subject of the research is the complementarity of methodological approaches to the development of regional management strategies in the process of reforming the management system of regional socio—economic development, carried out by reorienting Russia's domestic policy to apply an innovative approach to the development of regions to accelerate economic growth, create new jobs and ensure competitive advantages in the market of products and services. The purpose of the work is to identify integrated approaches to the development of strategies for the socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation based on the analysis of current trends in the digital transformation of the economy; identify patterns of socio-economic development of regions depending on their level of innovative development; identify key areas of socio-economic development strategy. Thanks to the analysis of scientific research by domestic and foreign scientists, the thesis is substantiated that the intensity of participation of regions in R&D state financing projects depends on the likelihood of the emergence of new economic specializations in the relevant industries. The conclusion is made about the need for complementarity of management paradigms used in the development of strategies for socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation.

A Water Resource Equilibrium Regulation Model Under Water Resource Utilization Conflict: A Case Study in the Yellow River Basin

AbstractThe mismatch between the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of water resources and recent regional socioeconomic development threatens social stability and sustainable development, particularly in river basins affected by water scarcity. Therefore, it is necessary to adapt a water resource regulation model to address these new challenges. Based on the theory of Maslow's hierarchy of needs and the Gini coefficient, in this study, a water resource equilibrium regulation model is constructed from the demand side and applied to the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Different from fairness, equilibrium is a stable state under the influence of diversity of interests and other factors. The results show that the model realizes the spatial and temporal equilibrium regulation of water resources. The water supply assurance rates of ecological and agricultural water users increase significantly to 94.1% and 74.3%, respectively. In particular, in dry years, the rigid demands of water users can be well met, and irreversible losses can be avoided. Compared with Scheme 1987, the proportion of water supply for upstream provinces increases to 42.34%, which will contribute to the balanced development of the basin. This model has the potential to be used in a wide range of applications, providing not only theoretical and technical support for the adjustment of Scheme 1987 in the YRB but also a reference for other governments and water resource management institutions around the world.

Regional Product, Employment, and Labor Productivity in the Context of Sustainable Development

In this article, the current state of the level of production of a social product in the regions of the Russian Federation has been assessed based on the methods of descriptive statistics. The grouping method made it possible to classify the regions of the Russian Federation and characterize them according to the selected system of indicators, link various indicators into a logically structured analysis, and build a research scheme. An analytical grouping of regions was carried out according to the value of the gross regional product per capita, which characterizes the achieved level of economic growth and contains the potential for a region’s socio-economic development. The complete set for building the group included 76 regions of all federal districts of the Russian Federation. The established proportions, tendencies, patterns of socio-economic development in spatial, and dynamic aspects are revealed. The applied value of the research lies in the presentation of a practical methodology for describing the processes occurring in the regions, which can serve as the basis for the application of research methods for relationships, structural changes, and time series.

A Geomorphological Survey and Landscape Analysis of Anambra State Southeast Nigeria

This paper looks at the terrain and landforms in Anambra State. The research used both primary and secondary data. Primary data used are measurements and direct field observations. Secondary data are from Satellite imageries of the State obtained and analyzed using ArcGIS to show the variations in the terrain and landforms of the study area, and other literature. The geology, topography and soil types of the State were identified, analyzed and mapped. The result shows among other things the relationship between soil type and settlement vis-à-vis population. The slope analysis was also carried out in order to identify areas with steep slopes that limit accessibility and other economic activities. The paper concludes that there is strong influence of the physical environment particularly, the geomorphological factor in determining the spatial pattern of socio-economic activities and development in Anambra State. A disproportionately high percentage of population (71.98%) as well as developmental activities and structures are found on the higher grounds, on the smaller sand – sandstone formations covering 36.42% of the State, leaving a very small percentage of population (28.02%) as well also as developmental activities and structures on the larger flood and other low plains covering 63.58% of the area. These disparities in population distribution as a result of gromorphological factors raises the issues of the need for the government and people of the State to employ new developmental ideas in the area of science and technology to overcome the limitations on the lower surfaces in other to attract settlers and balance population distribution in the State.

Implementing Water-Energy-Land-Food-Climate Nexus Approach to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals in Greece: Indicators and Policy Recommendations

In 2015 the updated Agenda 2030, outlining the new priorities towards future sustainability, was published by the United Nations reflecting the general directions towards a fairer and more sustainable pattern of socio-economic development. The specialisation of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and indicators into local contexts constitutes a basic prerequisite as particular characteristics, needs and peculiarities should be considered. This paper focuses on the exploration of local-oriented indicators and policy recommendations that have the potential to boost the successful implementation of SDGs in Greece. A nexus approach is adopted underlining the need to analyse complexities, motivate systemic thinking and develop integrated policies targeting at the sustainable and efficient use of resources. It also highlights the need for designing local-specific indicators and policy initiatives, encapsulating particular characteristics and conditions and boosting the advancement of SDGs. Such an approach has the potential to be implemented not only at national but also at an operational level in local scale (e.g., River Basin Scale). The outcomes indicate that emphasis should be given on smart water management and precision agriculture, extensive use of technologies capturing Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), dynamic penetration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in gross final energy production/consumption and protection of terrestrial ecosystems.

The Synthetic Role of Dialectics from Hegelianism and Taoism in Philosophical Investigation into the Complex Inter-civilisational and Human Development Issues

Both School of Hegalianism from the Western philosophy and School of Taoism from the ancient Chinese intellectual schools of thoughts can be unquestionably epitomised as two quintessential, enigmatic schools of dialectics, which to a large degree facilitate the intellectual researchers and scholars within the field of philosophy, humanities, social sciences and so forth to theoretically deconstruct and extrapolate the complex, authentic, objective world system and global human civilisations in a dialectical and synthetic fashion instead of the metaphysical and intuitive perspectives alone. In that regard, the hypothetical questions of 1) whether both Hegalianism and Taoism share certain implicit reciprocal conceptual components that may outweigh their explicitly diametrical diversity owning to the explicit heterogeneity in historical background, social development trajectory, and socioeconomic and politico-economic development pattern between the Agrarian Civilisation and the Oceanic Civilisation in history, and of 2) whether their intellectual thoughts and legacies of dialectics can accurately monitor and predict the infinite occurrence of inter-civilisational, international development issues and human development affairs may at least help to construct a thought-provoking theoretical guideline and framework, which are unquestionably worthy of profound theoretic investigation and empirical analysis. The ultimate purpose of this academic manuscript attempts to dialectically identify and deconstruct certain vital dissimilarities and complementarities between Hegelianism and Taoism and philosophically build a theoretical bridge that interconnects them for the sake of follow-up empirical analysis of their differentiated methodologies. Moreover, this paper seeks to in a dialectical fashion evaluate the availability, applicability and functionality of these two intellectual schools in a context of inter-civilisational and international development, especially pertaining to the underlying themes of global economic crisis and macroeconomic recovery, the unprecedented global climate crisis, and global COVID-19 pandemic with much insufficiency of global sanitation partnership reform and imbalanced means of production. This academic manuscript seeks to itemise and quantify the diverse conceptual components between Hegelianism and Taoism as well as qualitative comments on their potential areas that they might share and develop. Additionally, this paper attempts to undertake hermeneutic retrospectives of their legacies of dialectics and case studies of international, inter-civilisational development issues and human development issues. In a nutshell, on a basis of existential research findings so far, this paper draws preliminary conclusions that the reflexivity of dialectics from Hegelianism and Taoism helps to classify and clarify the implicit dogmatic principles that drive the advancement of global human development, and inter-civilisational development on the grounds of dialectical antithesis as the theoretical guidelines. On the other hand, neither of them can mostly accurately function as a guarantee for maximum prediction and monitoring of world affairs, which necessitates updated data elaboration, comprehensive out-of-box thinking mode, maximum interdisciplinary theoretical breakthroughs and discovery from a maximum dialectical, inter-civilisational perspectives. That can prevent the readers, scholars and researchers from falling into the idealistic solipsism.

Dimensions of human security and socio-economic development in Ilorin metropolis, Kwara State, Nigeria

Insecurity has become an important challenge to global human development. While wars among countries have reduced in the 21st century compared to previous centuries, civil wars and other forms of internal violence and conflicts have continued to have devastating effects on human populations. This paper aims to examine the relationship between aspect of human security and socio-economic development in Ilorin metropolis. Primary data were sourced through structured questionnaire coupled with personal interviews to elicit responses to work on. Secondary data were sourced from published documents of the National Population Commission and the State Bureau of Statistics, journals, and other relevant literatures. Data collected were analysed using the Z-score, Lorenz curve, and Regression analyses. The study reveals that the present adaptive and institutional strategies aimed at mitigating human insecurity in the study area are rather insufficient. Using the widest bow of the Lorenz curve, the level of disparity is 18%, depicting a disparity in the pattern of socio-economic development. The conclusion from the study is that many of the sampled respondents still find it hard to satisfy their basic needs from the environment in socially acceptable standards. Given this, the following recommendations are made to improve the quality of human life in Ilorin. Policy makers should be committed to the task of advancing the socio-economic well-being of urban dwellers. Government should help by implementing policies addressing basic human security especially through the provision of infrastructural facilities, and employment opportunities thereby helping to shape the quality of life and income diversification.

Climate change, environmental factors, and COVID-19: Current evidence and urgent actions

Climate change, environmental factors, and COVID-19: Current evidence and urgent actions

METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO THE ANALYSIS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE “CENTER-REGION” RELATIONS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

The article considers the issues of environmental and economic security of the region within the socio-economic development of society, taking into account the conceptual approaches to the application of basic parameters and indicators for determining the level of economic security of the country. The purpose of this article is to systematize conceptual approaches to determining the parameters of achieving economic security of regional development within the socio-economic system of society in terms of creating effective relations of organizational and functional interaction of “center-region” relations taking into account the current stage of economic development of Donetsk oblast, Ukraine. Improving the processes of management of the formation of “center – region” relations is based on the study and use of laws and patterns of regional socio-economic development to identify forms of their implementation, which allows to achieve qualitative change in environmental and economic parameters of the region. Ensuring the socio-economic development of society is possible by improving the management of the formation of relations “center – region”, based on the study and use of laws and patterns of regional socio-economic development, identifying forms of their implementation to achieve qualitative change in environmental and economic parameters development of the region. The study of issues of management of the processes of “center – region” relations in the presence of the influence of destabilizing factors becomes an urgent task of ensuring the security of the modern regional economy within the socio-economic system. Given the great scientific and practical significance of this problem, it is advisable to further study the possibilities of “center – region” relations to ensure economic security of the region, taking into account indicators of the regional component of the socio-economic system.

Documenting the most widely utilized plants and the potential threats facing ethnobotanical practices in the Western Hajar Mountains, sultanate of Oman

The Sultanate of Oman has a rich human history, stretching back millennia, however little is known about the history of human – plant interactions, particularly within the ancient villages and communities in Oman's northern mountains. An ethnobotanical study to document the most utilized wild plant species in Oman's Western Hajar Mountains (Jabal Shams and Jabal Asarah) and assess the threats facing these species was carried out in 2016. Forty-two wild plant species were recorded. Life forms include, shrubs (25%), trees (22%), large shrubs (15%), grasses (8%), climbing plants (5%) and herbs (5%). Plant uses were divided as follows: medicinal (30%), fuel (14%), fodder (12%), food (9%), honey production (7%), construction (6%), and 4% each for utilitarian, tools, weapons and livestock care. Less than 1% of species were noted for their uses as dyes, perfumes and cosmetics. Twenty-seven plant families were represented; Rhamnaceae had the highest number of uses, followed in order by Fabaceae, Oleaceae, Asteraceae, and Lamiaceae. Wild plants play an important role in local communities in the Western Hajar Mountains. However, traditionally important plants, their uses and the associated traditional knowledge are under increasing threat from rapid socioeconomic development and local climate change patterns – reduced rainfall and increasing summer temperatures.

System Dynamics Model for Evaluating Socio-Economic Impacts of Different Water Diversion Quantity from Transboundary River Basins-A Case Study of Xinjiang.

With the rapid development of social economy and global climate warming, scarce transboundary water resources, as one of the basic resources for socio-economic development, have increasingly become the focus of basin countries. To investigate the socio-economic impacts of different water diversion quantity from transboundary river basins, we used a system dynamics (SD) model to reflect interactions between population, water resources, and socio-economic development, and applied it to a case study in Xinjiang to simulate its change tendency from 2011 to 2030 from the temporal dimension. Then, four water diversion quantity of transboundary river basins and four alternative socio-economic development patterns were designed to comprehensively evaluate these impacts of water diversion quantity change on the socio-economy of the region along the river under different socio-economic development patterns. The results indicate that (1) there was a positive correlation between water diversion quantity and the economic output value of the region along transboundary river basins, and the marginal benefit of transboundary water resources would decrease gradually; (2) considering the difficulty of water diversion from transboundary river basins and the protection of downstream water use and ecological health of transboundary river basins, we believe that increasing the transboundary water resources by 20% was more conducive to the sustainable development of Xinjiang’s socio-economy; (3) through the comparison of dynamic evolutions of socio-economic development and water impacts under four socio-economic development patterns, it is best for Xinjiang to plan its future development in the coordinated development of economic-resource scenario. Following this scenario, not only would the total output value of the socio-economy be better than other scenarios, but this also helps to alleviate the contradiction between the water supply and demand, which expected there would be a water shortage of 1.04 billion m3 in 2029 under 20% increase in water diversion quantity. Therefore, appropriate water diversion quantity, reasonable adjustment of industrial production growth rate, reduction of water consumption quotas of different industries and domestic water quota, and improvement of collection and treatment rate for sewage should be given priority in water resources management decision-making in Xinjiang or other arid regions along transboundary river basins.

Optimal location of an intake at a reservoir prone to salt diffusion

There are two main factors which prompt to look for an alternative to traditional approaches to the provision of drinking water. They are climate change and population growth.Climate change and its increasing scale are no longer in doubt. It tends to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts. Changes in average water availability in most Central Asian river basins are estimated to be drastically big for the next 30 years. And, groundwater recharge may also be affected with a reduction in the availability of groundwater for drinking water in some regions.Water use has been increasing worldwide by about 1% per year since the 1980s, driven by a combination of population growth, socio-economic development and changing consumption patterns. Global water demand is expected to continue increasing at a similar rate until 2050, accounting for an increase of 20 to 30% above the current level of water use, mainly due to rising demand in the industrial and domestic sectors.These obliging to redefine the strategy for the use of water resources to ensure sustainable drinking water supply forcing the use of all available water resources even those that were not previously taken into account, for example, off stream storage reservoirs.Research, development and innovation play an important role in supporting informed decision-making. Therefore, further scientific and engineering studies are also needed for the development of financially affordable, safe and efficient infrastructure services in the areas of drinking water supply, sanitation and hygiene and its components.The article considers a particular reservoir the bottom of which is composed of saline soils operating in regular filling and emptying and subject to significant wind effects. The research conducted allowed to find a place of water intake location which provides a minimum salt content in the water abstracted.

The Influence of Culture in Customers’ Expectations about the Hotel Service in Latin Countries with Different Human Development Levels

Abstract Due to their dynamic nature and importance in the service process definition, customers’ expectations have gained attention from researchers and practitioners, and have been essentially focused in developed countries from the Northern Hemisphere. Still, countries, regardless of the hemisphere, have different levels of socioeconomic development and cultural patterns that can have different influence on customers’ expectations about a service. In this sense, the main purpose of this research is to understand if culture equally influences customers’ expectations about a service in countries with different cultural patterns and human development levels. The multigroup analysis using structural equation modelling was used to calculate the regression weights for all the path combinations in the analysis for each proposed group of countries. About 1262 customers from 10 Latin countries were enrolled in this study to determine their expectations about the hotel service and cultural dimensions. Findings show that cultural dimensions influence customers’ expectations about the hotel service differently in groups of countries with different cultural patterns and levels of human development. Results also indicate that hotel managers should adapt the service to the level of human development of each group of countries when it comes to internationalisation.

A Three-Stage Hybrid Model for Space-Time Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity: A Case Study of Jilin Province, China

Water shortage, water pollution, shrinking water area and water mobility are the main contents of the water resources crisis, which are widespread in the social and economic development of Jilin Province. In this paper, a three-stage hybrid model integrating evaluation, prediction and regulation is constructed by combining the load-balance method and the system dynamics method. Using this model, the current states of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) in 2017 and the trend of water demand/available from 2018 to 2030 were obtained. Using the orthogonal test method, the optimal combination program of agricultural and industrial water efficiency regulation and water resources allocation was selected. The results show that the pressure of the human–water resources system in Changchun, Liaoyuan and Baicheng is greater than the support, and the other six cities are not overloaded. The water demand in Jilin Province and its nine cities will increase from 2018 to 2030, if the current socio-economic development pattern is maintained. Therefore, we change the water quantity carrying capacity index by controlling agriculture, industrial water efficiency and trans-regional water transfer. Compared with 2015, among the optimal program obtained, the change range of the water use per 10,000 RMB of agricultural output is (−5%, 25%), and the water use per 10,000 RMB of industrial added value is (−45%, −35%), and the maximum water transfer is 1.5 billion m3 per year in 2030. This study analyzes the development pattern of WRCC in the process of water conservancy modernization in Jilin Province and provides reference for other provinces to make the similar plan.

Emigracioni potencijal mladih u Srbiji

Emigracioni potencijal mladih u Srbiji