Sustainable Development Pathways Research Articles

Food and land system transformations under different societal perspectives on sustainable development

Abstract The future of food and land systems is crucial for achieving multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals, given their essential role in providing adequate nutrition and their significant impact on Earth system processes. Despite widespread consensus on the need for transformation, discussed strategies vary widely, from technology-driven to sufficiency-focused approaches, emphasizing different agents of change and policy mixes. This study assesses the implications of a new generation of target-seeking scenarios incorporating such diverse sustainability perspectives. We apply two integrated assessment models to explore food and land futures under three whole-economy Sustainable Development Pathways (SDPs): Economy-driven Innovation, Resilient Communities, and Managing the Global Commons. Our assessment shows that all SDPs align sufficient food supply with progress towards planetary integrity, halting biodiversity loss, mitigating adverse impacts from irrigation, and significantly reducing nitrogen pollution. While all pathways comply with the Paris climate target, they diverge in the timing of climate mitigation efforts and focus on different greenhouse gases and emission sources. The Economy-driven Innovation pathway rapidly achieves net-negative CO2 emissions from the land system, whereas Resilient Communities and Managing the Global Commons significantly decrease agricultural non-CO2 emissions. Moreover, sustainability interventions attenuate trade-offs associated with narrowly focused mitigation pathways and reduce reliance on carbon dioxide removal strategies like re/afforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.

Millets, Shifting Cultivation and the Adivasis: Looking Through Culture, Policy and Politics

The year 2023 is celebrated as the International Year of Millets, declared by the United Nation’s General Assembly in March 2021 on the proposal submitted by the Government of India. Millet cultivation and consumption are being championed as the panacea for climate change and a solution for global hunger and nutrition. India’s lead in this connection is to make herself the global hub for millets. The Food and Agricultural Organisation of the UN recognise and promote millets as a pathway for sustainable development, enhancement of biodiversity and transformer of agrifood systems, besides empowering smallholder farmers and providing new sustainable market opportunities for the producers and consumers. However, the indigenous people of the globe or the Adivasis in India, who have predominantly cultivated and consumed millets primarily through the technology of shifting cultivation, find little mention or no mention in the context. The contemporary environment is ripe to revisit the intricacies of the closely knitted culture of the Adivasi and their shifting cultivation. The overarching challenges of climate change and sustainable development seem to compel the bringing back of the discarded ‘baby with the bath water’. The article will focus on the Konda Reddis (Andhra Pradesh state) and podu, their traditional way of cultivation (shifting cultivation). Podu is not an isolated cultivation technology, it is, for the Konda Reddis, the prism of their culture. Will the politics of policy resurrect the Adivasi and shifting cultivation?

Research on the Knowledge Structure and Sustainable Development Pathways of Artificial Intelligence from the Perspective of Technological Science

Achieving significant breakthroughs in both the fundamental theories and technological applications of artificial intelligence is essential for fostering its long-term development. Under the guidance of Professor Qian Xuesen’s theory of technological science, exploring the internal mechanisms of knowledge evolution in artificial intelligence holds profound theoretical and practical significance for promoting sustainable technological advancement. This study draws on literature from the Web of Science (WOS) database and employs methods such as knowledge mapping, natural language processing, clustering analysis, and citation analysis to outline the knowledge structure of the field, clarify the trajectory of sustainable development, and trace the technological genealogy of VR/AR technologies.This study divides the knowledge structure within the field of technological science into “basic theoretical knowledge—applied basic knowledge—applied knowledge”, enriching Qian’s theory of technological science from within and providing strong intellectual support and technological pathways for sustainable technological development in practice. Artificial intelligence encompasses 10 distinct knowledge domains, among which machine learning and deep learning constitute the basic theoretical knowledge, data intelligence, computer vision, and swarm intelligence are the applied basic knowledge, and image processing and human-computer intelligence are the applied knowledge. The development of VR/AR technology has formed two main sustainable development paths: “machine learning—data intelligence—intelligent systems—human computer intelligence”, and “deep learning—computer vision—image processing”.

Quantitative simulation and validation of energy carbon emission efficiency changes in Chinese urban agglomerations

In the context of the global energy dilemma, enhancing energy efficiency has inevitably become a pivotal strategy for mitigating energy waste and promoting sustainable development. Urban agglomerations, as growth poles leading high-quality regional economic development, play a significant role in this process. Within these urban agglomerations, the aggregation of various factors and the substitution of energy resources substantially influence the energy carbon emission efficiency (ECEE) of surrounding cities during their development and maturation phases. This study initially employs a three-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to quantitatively analyze the ECEE values of 19 urban agglomerations from 2006 to 2020. It then establishes a methodology for calculating the joint intensity (JI) and joint threshold (JT) of ECEE within these urban agglomerations. Finally, a validation process is executed using MATLAB simulation and verification methodology to fit and authenticate the evolutionary patterns of ECEE in Chinese urban agglomerations. The primary objective of this research is to model the evolution of ECEE, thereby exploring the sustainable development pathways for urban agglomerations in China. The research findings indicate that: (1) The results from the three-stage DEA demonstrate that, after removing the influences of external environmental factors and random errors, the comprehensive technical efficiency (TE) of energy carbon emissions for the 19 urban agglomerations in China experienced a wave-like increase, rising from 0.410 to 0.506 between 2006 and 2020. (2) The calculation results of the constructed JI model indicate that the JT values of ECEE for national-level, regional-level, and local-level urban agglomerations are 1006.92, 226.60, and 160.14, respectively. The national-level urban agglomerations have significantly higher JT values and JI than the other two levels of urban agglomerations. (3) The results of the Matlab simulation verification show that 16 urban agglomerations fit well with the wave-like ascending evolutionary pattern. However, four urban agglomerations exhibit an opposite fitting effect due to the influence of their pillar industries or the small number of cities within these accumulations, making them unrepresentative. Consequently, the evolutionary curve of ECEE in Chinese urban agglomerations generally exhibits a wave-like upward trend over time.

Income and inequality pathways consistent with eradicating poverty

Abstract To investigate concurrent climate action and poverty eradication, we present combined income growth (GDP/capita) and domestic income inequality (measured as Gini coefficients) pathways that pursue (absolute and relative) poverty eradication reflecting the three narratives of Sustainable Development Pathway (SDP). The GDP/capita pathways are modifications of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1 scenario, including one post-growth future for high-income countries and higher growth for all currently lower-income countries. Current inequality levels, together with the total national income from the GDP pathways, determine the inequality reductions required to eradicate poverty in individual countries; they are based on a methodology that specifies the relationship between poverty, inequality, and growth. Our pathways show rapid and sustained reductions in within-country inequality (Gini), even with high economic growth. The speed of redistribution is limited to the highest historically observed changes in inequality. We identify which countries face the greatest difficulties in meeting their poverty eradication targets and estimate the level of international transfers needed to fill the gap for those countries. Our findings reconfirm the importance of reducing within-country inequality in eradicating global poverty.

Patterns and causes of soil heavy metals and carbon stock in green spaces along an urbanization gradient

The surge in urbanization has correspondingly given rise to exacerbated carbon footprint and burgeoning heavy metal (HM) contamination, constituting a critical impediment to the realization of environmentally sustainable urban development pathways. Therefore, it is highly essential to investigate the impacts of urbanization process on soil carbon, heavy metals (HMs), as well as their interrelationships. Employing remote sensing and land use data within a 45 km radius in Chongqing, this study selected 31 sites to assess the variation in urban green spaces (UGSs) carbon sequestration capabilities and associated HM pollution risks across differing urbanization levels. Results showed that urbanization dynamics and land use history play a more decisive role than current anthropogenic management in shaping the distribution of soil carbon and HMs within urban environments. The average soil organic carbon (SOC) distribution of UGSs is 8.47 mg ha−1 (1.50–24.20 mg ha−1), concurrent with moderate HM pollution showing Ni: 32.03–33.50 mg kg−1, Pb: 27.93–29.65 mg kg−1, Cu: 26.97–41.20 mg kg−1, while Cd exhibits the most severe pollution range of 0.23–0.30 mg kg−1. The rate of urbanization significantly influences SOC stocks, exhibiting an increase when the urbanization rate is below 70.79 % and a decrease upon surpassing this threshold. The concentration of HMs is predominantly determined by the historical usage of the land, with a marked escalation correlating with the duration of land utilization history. These relationships were quantitatively modeled through the application of fitted linear functions. The structural equation model demonstrated that UGSs operating without anthropogenic disturbance tend towards degradation, indicating that temporary homeostasis might be sustained via the addition of N and P nutrients and pH modulation. In conclusion, we formulate an Urban Green Spaces Development Hypothesis that aims to shed light on the multifaceted challenges encountered by cities amidst varying degrees of urbanization and, concurrently, to probe potential ameliorative strategies.

Impact of urban spatial dynamics and blue-green infrastructure on urban heat islands: A case study of Guangzhou using Local Climate Zones and predictive modeling

Amidst mounting concerns regarding health risks associated with excessive carbon emissions, attention has turned to the heat mitigation ability of blue-green infrastructure (BGI). BGI offers heat mitigation through transpiration cooling, effectively countering the urban heat island (UHI) effect while facilitating energy conservation and carbon reduction. This study adopted the InVEST model to assess the spatial pattern of UHI and heat mitigation service based on the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) classification, along with quantifying the energy savings in Guangzhou for 2019. The results revealed that the UHI effect exhibited greater intensity in the southwest built-up area. Compact Lowrise (LCZ-3) and Heavy Industry (LCZ-10) areas demonstrated higher UHI intensity, while Water (LCZ-G) and Dense Trees (LCZ-A) areas showcased the highest heat mitigation index (HMI) and optimal cooling capacities. Three urban development scenarios were devised to simulate the UHI distribution, heat mitigation capacity, and energy savings by 2025, using the CA-Markov model. In comparison to the Baseline scenario, the Environmental Protection scenario showed a modest 3.67 % decrease in the built-up area, but a noteworthy increase in HMI and energy saving, by 21.2 % and 6.6 % respectively. This scenario can serve as a reference pathway for urban energy conservation and sustainable development.

Uncovering the drivers of CO2 emissions in the United States: The hidden spillover effects

This study explores the applicability of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in the United States (US) from 2006 to 2020, employing the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to analyze the cross-border effects of pollution among states. The results indicate that although economic growth initially decreases environmental degradation, it subsequently contributes to more significant environmental degradation, challenging the EKC hypothesis's validity at the US state level. Factors such as higher energy prices and reliance on fossil fuels are also identified as significant drivers of environmental deterioration, with varying impacts observed across states. Conversely, adopting renewable energy sources is crucial in mitigating pollution levels. The study underscores the importance of coordinated state-level efforts to harmonize economic growth with sustainable environmental practices. It highlights the complexities of policymaking in balancing economic development with environmental conservation and emphasizes the need for targeted interventions to address environmental challenges effectively. This research enhances our understanding of sustainable development pathways amidst diverse regional dynamics within the US by providing empirical evidence and policy insights.

Opportunities and challenges towards a circular bioeconomy of the Philippines’ veneer and plywood industry

Using harvested wood products (HWPs) in a circular bioeconomy, such as veneer and plywood, is a promising approach to addressing environmental concerns and ensuring sustainable resource management. This paper attempts to conceptualize a veneer and plywood circular bioeconomy system (VPCBES) model and analyse the opportunities and challenges these wood-based industries face in contributing to the circular economy of the Philippines. A systematic literature review and contextualized SWOT analysis were employed to explore potential pathways for sustainable development and circular practices in the country. It adopts the butterfly framework and presents the VPCBES model, exploring the continuous flow of materials, emphasizing waste reduction, products and materials circulation, and nature regeneration. The opportunities for the veneer and plywood industry in the circular bioeconomy include using recycled wood waste, adopting resin as a binding agent, and cascading wood waste in time and value. However, challenges persist, including meeting demands while ensuring regeneration goals, low innovation investments, harvesting practices, waste routes issues, non-compliance to cleaner production and industrial symbiosis, and policy‐related barriers. Addressing these challenges and capitalizing on opportunities will enable the veneer and plywood industry to play a vital role in the Philippine circular bioeconomy.

Green energy, green innovation, and political stability led to green growth in OECD nations

This study analyzes the determinants of green economic growth in OECD countries, focusing on the role of technological innovation, clean energy adoption, environmental innovation, and political stability. Employing panel data analysis techniques, including Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Regression (DSUR), Common Correlated Effects Pooled-FM (CUP-FM), and Common Correlated Effects Pooled-BC (CUP-BC), the study examines the asymmetric relationships between these factors and green growth over both the short and long run. The findings suggest that technological innovation significantly influences green growth in OECD nations, with positive and negative shocks in innovation showing distinct impacts on green growth consumption, which emphasizes embracing and expanding green technology to enhance sustainable economic development and minimize environmental damage. Similarly, clean energy adoption plays a crucial role in fostering green economic growth, with positive relationships observed between renewable energy consumption and green growth in the short and long run. Environmental innovation also positively correlates with green growth, highlighting the significance of developing new products and services to manage environmental challenges. Besides, political stability is a critical determinant of green growth, with stable political environments fostering investor confidence and encouraging long-term sustainable investments. The study underlines the complex interplay between these factors, emphasizing the bidirectional causality relationships observed among clean energy adoption, political stability, innovation, and urbanization. These findings underscore the multifaceted nature of sustainable development pathways, highlighting the need for integrated policy approaches to promote green growth agendas. The study contributes to comprehending the factors driving green economic growth in OECD countries and provides insights for policymakers and practitioners seeking to advance sustainability goals. By underlining the importance of technological innovation, clean energy adoption, environmental innovation, and political stability, the study proposes valuable insights into the pathways toward achieving environmentally sustainable and economically viable growth.

Exploring the Recycling Behavior and Climate Change Mitigation in Booming Countries: A Path to Cleaner Seas and Sustainable Futures- A Case of UAE

The expansion of the global population, technological progress, economic growth, and rapid urbanization have induced substantial shifts in lifestyle choices, reshaping consumption patterns. This research aimed to investigate the interrelation between recycling practices in rapidly developing nations, notably China, Brazil, Turkey, Vietnam, Nigeria, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while emphasizing the role of the UAE, particularly Abu Dhabi, in mitigating climate change and addressing marine pollution. Furthermore, the study ascertain the significance of recycling practices, specifically concerning plastic and e-waste in the UAE, in contributing to environmental sustainability and promoting cleaner oceans. This endeavor ultimately aimed for more sustainable and conscientious development pathways. The research methodology was founded on established theoretical and conceptual framework developed through an in-depth analysis of variables rooted in the theory of planned behavior. Following the successful collection of data on recycling behaviors related to plastic and e-waste in Abu Dhabi, the data was analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). The findings from the correlation analysis conducted showed complex correlations between recycling behavior and environmental factors. The positive connections found between “comparing recycling practice” and a favorable “future development pathway,” suggested active recycling involvement and good future perspectives. Similarly, positive correlation between “reducing marine pollution” and “environmental sustainability,” demonstrated a shared environmental conscience. However, a negative link was found between “mitigating climate change” and “reducing marine pollution”, “recycling behavior, showing that respondents with higher priority on mitigating climate change also not in favour to recycle and prioritize for reducing marine pollution.

Breaking barriers, building resilience: Leveraging knowledge to mitigate energy vulnerability in Africa

Addressing energy vulnerability can unlock economic potential and create pathways for inclusive and sustainable development. Knowledge creation and use are essential components of efforts to promote sustainable energy access and support development goals. This paper scrutinizes the effect of knowledge on energy vulnerability in Africa. Using data from 27 countries from 2000 to 2019, findings from feasible generalized least squares, panel-corrected standard errors, and fixed-effects with Driscoll and Kraay (1998) standard errors demonstrate that the three components of knowledge creation and use (education quality, ICT penetration, and innovation) mitigate energy vulnerability in Africa. Moreover, findings from the quantile regression confirm that the effect of knowledge is negative but heterogeneous across the conditional distribution of energy vulnerability. Finally, economic globalization incurs energy vulnerability, while urbanization has a negative and statistically significant effect. Thus, policymakers and governments should actively invest in education and training programs and provide incentives for ICT development and energy innovation to alleviate energy vulnerability in Africa.

The rapid prosperity of China’s Pearl River Delta from the perspective of social–ecological coupling: implications for sustainable management

Systems theory and complex science, especially knowledge of social–ecological interdependencies, are urgently needed in planning and decision-making on sustainable urban development due to the intensification of the contradiction between human development and nature conservation. Here, we present an analytical framework, the “social–ecological coupling trajectory”, that integrates the social–ecological coupling, multi-stability, causal feedbacks and sustainable management through understanding the evolution of the urban social–ecological system (SES). This framework is applied to a typical urban SES, i.e., China’s rapidly prosperous Pearl River Delta (PRD). Our results indicate that the SES evolution in the PRD is a phased process, which is accompanied by a continuous decline in major ecosystem services (ESs) and the disproportionate decline of ecological management performance. Further analysis shows that social and economic policies have a decisive role in driving the evolution of SES and the cumulative effect of sustained human interference is directly linked to the disproportionate increase in sustainability challenges. The findings of critical slowing down and evolution patterns of SES in the PRD may provide evidence for the threshold recognition and regime shift prediction in SES. In sum, this study expands the theoretical framework and empirical knowledge of SES evolution and provides a pathway for sustainable development of regions seeking prosperity from the social–ecological coupling perspective.

Mobile Government Service Promotion Strategies: Exploring Sustainable Development Pathways Based on Provincial Government Practices in China

The level of mobile government services has become a crucial metric for modernizing a government’s governance capabilities, and it plays a significant role in promoting sustainable development. This study aims to explore the key factors influencing the level of mobile government services across 31 provinces in China, along with their combinatory pathways. Using the technology–organization–environment (TOE) framework and employing fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), this study conducts an in-depth analysis of mobile government service levels across these provinces, focusing on the dimensions of technology, organization, and environment. The results identify three pathways that promote high levels of mobile government services: technology–organization, technology–environment, and internal–external linkage-driven pathways. These pathways offer viable strategies for achieving sustainable development in mobile government services. Additionally, this study identifies two pathways associated with lower service levels, technology deficiency, and organization–environment misalignment, highlighting key factors that hinder sustainable development. The findings suggest that organizational and environmental factors can complement each other based on technological conditions, internet penetration rates, and citizen participation levels. Based on these insights, this study recommends that provincial governments proactively explore sustainable development pathways, optimize the “technology–organization–environment” conditions to harness synergies, and work towards enhancing mobile government service levels, thereby reducing inter-provincial disparities and advancing sustainable development.

Beyond economic growth goals: can foreign aid mitigate carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries?

We provide novel and compelling evidence that foreign aid has significant mitigating impacts on carbon dioxide emissions in a comprehensive panel dataset of 127 developing countries from 1995 to 2019. This impact operates through a direct effect resulting from the adoption of green and eco-friendly investments and an indirect effect driven by economic growth. Moreover, we reveal that the effectiveness of foreign aid in reducing carbon dioxide emissions is contingent upon the country's income level. Specifically, foreign aid shows limited efficacy in curbing emissions in low-income countries, while its influence becomes substantial in middle-income countries. This result indicates that economic development plays a moderating effect in the aid – climate change nexus. Furthermore, the findings of this research are of paramount importance to donor and recipient countries emphasizing the role of governance and political stability in enhancing the effectiveness of aid in combatting climate change and identifying promising pathways for sustainable development.

Ecosystem services provision through nature-based solutions: A sustainable development pathway to environmental stewardship as evidenced in the Protecting Lake Hawassa Partnership in Ethiopia

Ecosystem services provision through nature-based solutions: A sustainable development pathway to environmental stewardship as evidenced in the Protecting Lake Hawassa Partnership in Ethiopia

Effectiveness of Community Forest Management as an Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Strategy in the Context of Nepal

Objectives: This study attempted to explore the effectiveness of community forest (CF) management as an ecosystem based adaptation (EbA) strategy in combating and adapting with the climate change impacts upon local ecosystems and communities. Method: In order to identify EbA options, effectiveness, efficiency, sustainability, governance and socioeconomic function of CF were analyzed. Effectiveness and sustainability were examined and compared through Land Use Land Cover (LULC) database during 1996 and 2021. Efficiency was explored through the economic valuation of provisioning and cultural services, using economic approach–revealed price (market price) method. Socioeconomic functions and governance were examined through the existing plans/policies and secondary data review. Findings: CF is effectively and sustainably managing the available resources. It has increased forest cover, water body, grassland and remarkable decline in bush and sand area. Bush area (79.25 ha in 1996) dropped (to 6.52 ha in 2021) while forest cover increased from 340.46 ha to 375.54 ha. Waterbody (pond or lake area) was limited to 0.88 ha that expanded to 5.04 ha in 2021 due to the conservation oriented management practices. Meanwhile, economic value of provisioning services is USD 7182 accounting wood and timber the highest (average annual USD 4800) among the provisioning services while average annual value of firewood and poles is USD 1367 and NTFP (fish and rubber) is USD 1015 whereas the economic value of cultural services is USD 18803. Novelty: The novelty of the research work lies in the unique methodology and the selection of CF for the EbA case study, which is least explored. By exposing the integration of ecological and socio-economic considerations, this research underscores the significance CF as EbA option in shaping sustainable development pathway in Nepalese context. Keywords: Ecosystem Services, Ecosystem Based Adaptation, Community Forest, Nepal, Land Management

New Twists in the Chemistry of Thioureas: 1,3-Thiazolidines as a Vector of Sustainability.

This study introduces a sustainable and pioneering cascade synthesis of 1,3-thiazolidine derivatives under eco-friendly conditions. The methodology transcends traditional approaches yielding complex novel compounds with unique N,S-heterocyclic structures. By operating at room temperature, utilizing green solvents, and minimizing excess of reactants, this procedure offers an innovative pathway for sustainable chemical development. Notably, this method not only prioritizes sustainability but also delivers high-purity products with exceptional yields. The simplicity of the process, requiring only a simple filtration and featuring short reaction times, underscores its efficiency and utility.

Simultaneous efficient evaporation and stable electricity generation enabled by a wooden evaporator based on composite photothermal effect

The current solar interfacial evaporators have limited evaporation performance due to their single photothermal mechanism, insufficient light utilization, and improper heat management. Therefore, a novel approach involving polypyrrole (PPy) and Ag nanoparticles (AgNPs) modified wooden evaporator (AgPW) using an in-situ polymerization and growth method was proposed for efficient and sustainable freshwater purification. The composite photothermal effect of PPy and AgNPs led to a significantly enhanced light absorption capacity and superior photothermal conversion efficiency in a wide spectrum range, which coupled with the rapid water transport capacity conferred by the regular vertical channels and superior hydrophilicity of the delignified wood, resulted in remarkable evaporation performance through the coordinated regulation of thermal and water management. The optimized AgPW50 achieved an evaporation rate of up to 2.04 kg m−2 h−1 and an evaporation efficiency of 90.7 % under 1 kW m−2 irradiation. Importantly, this evaporator was highly salt resistant and long-term desalination stability, and can also be extended to the purification of various types of wastewaters while converting the released waste heat into stable electricity generation. The innovative Ag/PPy wooden evaporator integrates biomass resources with solar energy utilization, demonstrating an environmentally friendly, efficient and cost-effective strategy for seawater desalination and energy production, providing a new sustainable development pathway to solve the challenge of balancing water security and energy consumption.

Estimating terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage change in the YREB caused by land-use change under SSP-RCPs scenarios

Terrestrial ecosystems, as an essential carbon sink of atmospheric CO2, play an important role in balancing the global carbon cycle. Land-use and land-cover changes (LUCCs) are the major factors in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) change. However, they are not yet sure how future LUCCs would affect the TECS in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) to meet China's carbon-neutral goal. We simulated eight land-use change scenarios and used these to estimate the YREB's TECS and its 2020–2060 variation by coupling the spatially explicit projections of LUCCs under the latest IPCC, combining shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with datasets on terrestrial ecosystem carbon density dataset. Results show that: 1) the total TECS of the YREB in 2020 is ∼28.07 Gt. Spatially, TECS in the YREB focused on Sichuan and Yunnan (∼13.35 Gt), which plays a crucial role in balancing the regional carbon cycle; its losses are in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Hunan provinces; Yunnan is the potential region with future carbon sink enhancement in the YREB. 2) Compared to the TECS change under eight land-use scenarios, the low-carbon and sustainable development pathways are the priority chosen by humans. 3) The replacement of vast forest land with cropland and urban expansion are the key factor of TECS change in the YREB. 4) Land management policies (i.e., Cultivated land requisition-compensation balance) should balance the conflicts between food self-sufficiency and the carbon sink rather than only the dynamic balance in quantity. Our study aims to provide data support for the government in planning future development pathways and refining carbon emission reduction strategies to assist in carbon trading and compensation and achieve the YREB's dual-carbon goal.