Hurricane Path Research Articles

Observed Oceanic Response over the Upper Continental Slope and Outer Shelf during Hurricane Ivan*

Abstract Hurricane Ivan passed directly over an array of 14 acoustic Doppler current profilers deployed along the outer continental shelf and upper slope in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Currents in excess of 200 cm s−1 were generated during this hurricane. Shelf currents followed Ekman dynamics with overlapping surface and bottom layers during Ivan’s approach and transitioned to a dominant surface boundary layer as the wind stress peaked. Slope currents at the onset of Ivan were wind driven near the surface, but deeper in the water column they were dominated during and after the passage of Ivan by subinertial waves with a period of 2–5 days that had several characteristics of topographic Rossby waves. Currents on the slope at 50 m and greater depths commonly exceeded 50 cm s−1. Surprisingly, the strongest currents were present to the left of the storm track on the shelf while more energetic currents were to the right of the hurricane path on the slope during the forced stage. Near-inertial motion lasting for a time period of about 10 days was excited by the storm on the shelf and slope. Record wave heights were measured near the eyewall of Hurricane Ivan and were shown not to be rogue waves. The large surface waves and strong near-bottom currents caused significant bottom scour on the outer shelf at water depths as deep as 90 m.

EFFECT OF HURRICANE ISIDORE ON TRIATOMA DIMIDIATA DISTRIBUTION AND CHAGAS DISEASE TRANSMISSION RISK IN THE YUCATÁN PENINSULA OF MEXICO

Hurricanes can have devastating effects on health and may directly modulate vector-borne diseases. Chagas disease is a zoonosis caused by the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi and transmitted by triatomine bugs, and the effect of hurricanes on these bugs is largely unknown. We thus performed a detailed study of the changes in Triatoma dimidiata geographic distribution and infection rates after Hurricane Isidore devastated the Yucatán Peninsula in September 2002. Bugs were collected in 34 villages from the entire peninsula, during a year, starting 3 months after the hurricane. Pre- and posthurricane bug collections were compared to assess changes. The most notable effect was a large increase in domestic abundance of T. dimidiata during the 6 months after the hurricane. This increase was maximum along the path of the hurricane. These results suggest that vector control programs should be implemented along the path of hurricanes to prevent an increase in Chagas disease transmission risk in the ensuing months.

ONE DAY AT A TIME

HAVING LIVED ALONG THE GULF Coast for nearly 30 years, N. Dale Ledford is no stranger to hurricanes. So on Saturday, Aug. 27—as Hurricane Katrina gathered strength in the Gulf of Mexico, and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour declared a state of emergency—he was already securing his office for the coming storm. I did the normal things that people would do to prepare for a normal hurricane, recalls Ledford, a chemistry professor and director of the College of Science & Technology at the University of Southern Mississippi's Gulf Coast campus. He covered his office cabinets with plastic bags. He placed important, lightweight items on top of the 7-foot bookshelves in his office. He secured the windows and doors. Now, with hindsight, Ledford sees those preparations as so much folly. Situated in Long Beach, Miss., with a picturesque view of the Gulf of Mexico, USM's Gulf Coast campus was at the heart of the hurricane's path. Many ...

Aboveground Biomass Accumulation in a Tropical Wet Forest in Nicaragua Following a Catastrophic Hurricane Disturbance1

ABSTRACTAmong their effects on forest structure and carbon dynamics, hurricanes frequently create large‐scale canopy gaps that promote secondary growth. To measure the accumulation of aboveground biomass (AGBM) in a hurricane damaged forest, we established permanent plots 4 mo after the landfall of Hurricane Joan on the Atlantic coast of Nicaragua in October 1988. We quantified AGBM accumulation in these plots by correlating diameter measurements to AGBM values using a published allometric regression equation for tropical wet forests. In the first measurement year following the storm, AGBM in hurricane‐affected plots was quite variable, ranging from 26 to 153 Mg/ha, with a mean of 78 (±15) Mg/ha. AGBM was substantially lower than in two control plots several kilometers outside the hurricane's path (331 ±15 Mg/ha). Biomass accumulation was slow (5.36 ± 0.74 Mg/ha/yr), relative to previous studies of forest regeneration following another hurricane (Hugo) and agricultural activity. We suggest that large‐scale, homogenous canopy damage caused by Hurricane Joan impeded the dispersal and establishment of pioneer trees and led to a secondary forest dominated by late successional species that resprouted and survived the disturbance. With the relatively slow rate of biomass accumulation, any tightening in disturbance interval could reduce the maximum capacity of the living biomass to store carbon.

Epidemiologic Assessment of the Impact of Four Hurricanes—Florida, 2004

During August 13, 2004-September 25, 2004, Florida experienced four major hurricanes: Charley and Frances (both Category 4) and Ivan and Jeanne (both Category 3). An estimated 20% of homes throughout Florida were damaged by these hurricanes, and 124 persons died. In October 2004, the Florida Department of Health (FDOH) added 30 questions to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey to assess the impact of the hurricanes on state residents. This report summarizes the results of that survey, which indicated that 48.7% of Florida residents had no evacuation plan before any of the hurricanes, portable generators were used in 17.5% of homes after electric power outages, and residents of counties not in the direct paths of the four hurricanes had consequences similar to those who lived in the direct paths of the hurricanes (e.g., physical injuries, barriers to medical treatment, and loss of work days). Public health officials should consider the needs of residents both in and not in the direct paths of hurricanes in their preparedness planning.

Estimating Overwater Friction Velocity and Exponent of Power-Law Wind Profile from Gust Factor during Storms

During storms, the effects of wind loading and drift currents are among the major hazards to offshore structures. In order to objectively determine overwater friction velocity and the exponent of the power-law wind profile, the concept of in-situ gust factor, which reflects the composite effect of air-sea interaction, is employed. During Hurricane Kate in 1985, pertinent meteorological and oceanographic parameters including wind speeds at the standard 10 m height were measured by National Data Buoy Center buoy 42003, located along the hurricane path at 25.88°N and 85.95°W. It is demonstrated that, during this storm, the mechanical turbulence dominates the thermal effect and the exponent of the power-law wind profile is nearly equal to the turbulence intensity in the downwind direction. Relationships among friction velocity, gust factor, and the exponent of the power-law wind profile are also found and provided for engineering applications.

Hurricane heat engines

A hurricane's path is quite easy to forecast, but its intensity is not. A new model, which takes into account the interaction of the storm and ocean-surface temperature, gives remarkably accurate retrospective simulations.

Forecasting hurricane tracks using the Kalman filter

AbstractA case study applies state space models and the Kalman filter to forecasting the path of hurricanes. The track of a hurricane is forecast by using its previous motion together with the historical record of storms which follow a similar path. Criteria are described for selecting the predictor storms, which are then incorporated into the measurement equation of the state space model. Linear and quadratic trend structural time series models are used in the transition equation of the state space model and forecasts are produced using the Kalman filter. Forecasts are obtained for hurricanes Andrew (1992), Bob (1991), Hugo (1989) and Gilbert (1988). The Kalman filter approach compares very favourably with the HURRAN and CLIPER benchmark models used by the National Hurricane Center.

TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE BEULAH ON SEPTEMBER 19–23, 1967

Abstract One hundred fifteen tornadoes are known to have occurred in association with hurricane Beulah. The total was far greater than the number reported with any previous North Atlantic tropical cyclone in history. The spatial distribution of the tornadoes with reference to the hurricane center was examined, and it is shown that the best relationships on location of the hurricane-tornado within the parent cyclone are obtained with respect to true azimuth and are superior to those obtained using an orientation from a heading along the tropical cyclone track. With few exceptions, the tornadoes associated with hurricane Beulah occurred outside the area of known hurricane-force winds. The period of the day, the orientation of the Texas coastline in relation to the hurricane's path, and the length of time Beulah lingered near the coast may have contributed to the record number of occurrences of hurricane-tornadoes.

Congratulatory Message

Disasters impact the lives and property of millions of people around the globe. Every month, and sometimes every week, newspapers describe the latest disaster on our planet. We all remember the 2004 Banda Aceh tsunami (~185,000 deaths), the 2005 Hurricane Katrina (the costliest disaster in US history at $108 billions USD), and the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake leading to the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster. On an international scale, the economic losses due to disasters are comparable to the annual budget of all countries except perhaps the 30 richest nations. There still is too little scientific knowledge available on disaster prevention and management. The Journal of Disaster Research should be praised for offering an international platform for the dissemination of scientific knowledge and technological expertise on natural disasters at the global scale. The journal welcomes articles on geological, meteorological, hydrological and viral disasters. The journal publishes papers, reviews, survey reports, letters, notes, news, discussions materials and tutorials, and is devoid of political and religious opinions. Many people nurture the attitude that nothing can be done when confronted with an “act of God.” I do not share this view and the scientific and engineering communities have already made tremendous progress towards the mitigation of natural disasters. For instance, Tropical Storm Sandy hit the US Atlantic Coast in 2012 and left $68 billions in damage. This caused tremendous hardship to resilient communities in New York and New Jersey. But clearly, the damages would have been so much worse without the technology to track and predict the hurricane path far ahead of time. Timely warnings and advanced preparation work significantly reduced casualties and damages. Major scientific questions remain unanswered and without any doubt, we still have a long way to go. It is almost impossible to think that major disasters will ever be completely contained. Earthly forces are so large that engineers have to design structures understanding that there will always be a risk of failure. Living communities have to become resilient to the fact that hardship will be expected once in a while. However, the standards of engineering practice improved tremendously since the Stone Age. It is through adaptation to a nonstationary climatic environment that better engineering design secures lower risks of failure. For instance, better understanding of the new concepts like paleo-hydrology and recent advances in the analysis of probable maximum floods can lead to reduced hazards through adaptive engineering design. A lot more research and developments await us, but our joint efforts and ability to share our experience is the prescribed path to a better future. The international scientific and engineering community can only be better prepared to mitigate the devastating consequences of natural disasters by sharing information in scientific journals like the Journal of Disaster Research.

Effect of Hurricane Inez (1966) on the hydrography and productivity of the western Gulf of Mexico

Hurricane Inez, a small intense storm, traversed the western Gulf of Mexico effecting changes in the physical, chemical and biological state of the water. Observations made before and immediately after the storm along a line normal to the hurricane path permitted diagnoses of local changes. A discussion of these changes is presented. In the light of recent numerical experiments, implications regarding induced water circulation is considered.

An Application of Oceanographic Data in Offshore Structural Design

Abstract Described in this paper are oceanographic data which should be considered by an offshore design engineer and methods for developing a design wave height from the oceanographic data. The selection of a design wave is predicated on contemplated waves which might affect the site throughout the life of the structure. Selection of a design wave height may be based onarbitrarily established recurrence frequencies of hurricanes affecting the structure (predicted wave heights are associated with the expected variations of forces resulting from these waves) anda risk-type evaluation wherein all possible storms affecting the area are considered (anticipated wave heights are associated with both investment plus risk costs and expected variations of forces). It is shown how the following oceanographic predictions are integrated into design considerations:a classification of storm intensity which considers all recorded storms which affected the design area,the recurrence interval of storms of a given intensity (this interval is dependent on the extent of the geographical area considered in the design problem) anda forecast of all wave heights which might affect the area (geometry of a structure often necessitates consideration of waves from a multiplicity of directions). The authors believe that the described techniques can result in selecting an adequate and reasonable design wave. Introduction Since the inception of offshore operations in the Gulf of Mexico, engineers engaged in designing structural facilities have been plagued with the problem of selecting an adequate and reasonable design wave. In the development of any offshore structure it is mandatory that the engineer evaluate the ability of the structure to withstand the ocean waves to which it will be subjected. Selecting such design waves quite naturally necessitates a coalition of the oceanographer and the design engineer. The oceanographer must provide a detailed knowledge of scientific principles which govern the behavior of waters in the Gulf of Mexico. He should also have an adequate knowledge of the manner in which design waves are utilized by the engineer. Although the design engineer's primary responsibility is applying the oceanographer's specialized knowledge in the creation of real structures, it is important that he possess some knowledge of related oceanographic principles to reasonably evaluate and apply the recommendations of the oceanographer. In the Gulf of Mexico it is the hurricane wind waves which generally govern the design of an offshore facility. The oceanographer must therefore develop techniques for predicting the heights, periods and frequency of all hurricane waves which might affect a particular structure. From this mass of oceanographic data, the design engineer must select the design waves which will apply to his particular design. Past Studies on Frequency and Amplitude of Hurricane Wind Waves Past oceanographic studies on the frequency of hurricane wave heights in the Gulf of Mexico have been devoted largely to predicting the recurrence interval of hurricanes which will generate maximum significant waves of given heights. The maximum significant wave height is the average height of the highest one third of the waves in that portion of the storm producing maximum wave heights. Since these waves occur over a relatively small portion of the storm (Fig. 1) and since the paths of hurricanes vary considerably (Fig. 2), the recurrence frequency of such heights is largely a function of the extent of the geographical area considered.

Observed Ocean Conditions and Hurricane Hilda, 1964

Abstract Hurricane Hilda crossed the Gulf of Mexico in the period 30 September to 4 October 1964, developing into a very severe hurricane in the central Gulf. Sea temperature data available prior to the storm indicated what was probably a typical late summer situation with some surface temperatures running above 30C. Beginning 5 October 1964, a 7-day cruise was conducted over the area where hurricane winds had been observed. Using the GUS III of the Galveston Biological Laboratory of the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries, four crossings of the hurricane path were made. Bathythermograph observations were taken regularly to 270 m and hydrographic casts to 125 m. The data on all four crossings indicated similar patterns. The observed temperature-depth structures after the storm indicated that the warm ocean surface layers were transported outward from the hurricane center, cooling and mixing as they moved; that these waters converged outside of the central storm area with the result that downwelling to some 80 ...

Origin and paths of hurricanes and tropical storms related to certain physical parameters at the air-sea interface : Tisdale C. F. and P. F. Clapp, 1963. J. Appl. Met., 2 (3): 358–367

Origin and paths of hurricanes and tropical storms related to certain physical parameters at the air-sea interface : Tisdale C. F. and P. F. Clapp, 1963. J. Appl. Met., 2 (3): 358–367

Origin and Paths of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Related to Certain Physical Parameters at the Air-Sea Interface

Abstract Ship weather and sea-temperature observations were used to obtain averaged values of sea and air temperature, dewpoint, windspeed and the transfer of real and latent heat from the sea-surface for a large number of 10-day and 5-day periods from the hurricane seasons of several years; and for an area comprising the Atlantic south of 35H, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. These parameters were studied with regard to the possibility of forecasting hurricane and tropical storm genesis and paths for several days in advance. Although none of the parameters provided a definite indication in each case of storm formation and track, the energy-transfer parameter showed some skill when averaged for several storms, in the sense that storms appear to form downstream from geographical centers of maximum heat transfer. The sea-temperature anomaly (studied for only part of the above data) seems especially consistent in indicating the subsequent track of the storms, which tend to be along axes of maximum p...

AN IMPROVED NWP MODEL FOR FORECASTING THE PATHS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

An improved numerical prediction model for forecasting the paths of hurricanes and typhoons is presented. A constant circular vortex representing the tropical cyclone is translated each time step so that it is always centered at the cyclone's initial center point which is advected with the barotropic steering flow. The vortex flow advects the absolute vorticity of the steering flow thereby affecting the forecast speed and direction of movement of the vortex center. The vortex equations, the modified barotropic equation, and forecasts assuming both the 500-mb. flow and a vertically weighted mean flow as the steering flow are shown.

Land Bridges and Ecology in Bat Distribution on Islands off the Northern Coast of South America

The zoogeography of insular faunas has always posed special problems. Prominent among these is the question of faunal composition. Whether an island is of the continental or of the oceanic type, its fauna usually differs significantly from that of nearby mainland areas. This phenomenon, in any given case, appears to be determined by two main factors. The first of these, which has received the most attention, is the past history of the island in terms of former land connections, or, if these have been absent, of ease of overwater dispersal. This latter factor may involve either absolute distance from the mainland or the presence or absence of special aids to overwater transport. Under the last heading would be classed favorable hurricane paths and large rivers which could propel natural rafts to the island in question. The second factor is the ecology, past and present, of the island and of the mainland source from which the insular fauna must come. It is evident that unless the ecologies of two islands are at least approximately similar, a faunal comparison is not likely to elucidate the means by which they were colonized. Under these circumstances it is often very difficult to determine whether the water barrier as such or the ecological difference has prevented certain forms from colonizing the island. For some time I have been much concerned about the relative roles of these two major factors as applied to the West Indian mammal fauna, particularly as they concern its largest component, the order Chiroptera. The general consensus, with which I am in hearty agreement, is that the entire mammal fauna has reached these islands across water (Simpson, 1956). It is also clear that the bat fauna represents, on the whole, an accumulation of invaders which have reached the Antilles at various times. This is shown by the extremely uneven degree of differentiation shown by the various species and higher groups. At one extreme there is an endemic subfamily, the Phyllonycterinae, while at the other, some West Indian bats are indistinguishable from their mainland representatives. An interesting feature is that

Predict Hurricane Paths

Predict Hurricane Paths

Predict Hurricane Paths?

Predict Hurricane Paths?

Chart XIII. Paths of Hurricanes and Other Tropical Storms, 1925

Chart XIII. Paths of Hurricanes and Other Tropical Storms, 1925