Past Period Research Articles

Study of the efficiency of using a machine in the automation of agricultural production

The past period of economic and agrarian reforms has shown that actively applied measures to radically change production relations have not yet yielded positive results, since the mechanism for creating the appropriate productive forces, and especially from the active technical part, has not been developed. The need to improve management methods in the field of equipment operation is dictated by the deepening contradictions of an economic, technical and environmental nature. They can only be resolved through a systematic approach. The article provides an analysis of the development of interrelated complex and differentiated standards for the need for material, labor and other resources for various levels and modes of planning.

Становление и развитие научного журнала «Золотоордынское обозрение»

In 2023, it will be ten years since the release of the first issue of our journal, “Golden Horde Review”. The decision to publish a special periodical was made by the Academic Council of the Marjani Institute of History of the Tatarstan Academy of Sciences on April 16, 2013. During this past period of the journal’s activity, the editors managed to intensify research on the history of the Golden Horde and the Tatar Khanates, popularize Turkic-Tatar history at the international level, and introduce new sources into scientific circulation. From the first issues, the publication acquired a high degree of scientific inte­rest; the magazine has managed to gain popularity among a wide audience of researchers and interested readers. Over the ten years of its activity, the journal has received a worthy assessment from the Russian and international scientific community, has achieved high quality publications, and has consistently increased its rating in leading scientometric databases. The journal is included in the List of peer-reviewed scientific journals and publications of the Higher Attestation Commission for the publication of the main scientific results of dissertations. In 2017, the Golden Horde Review journal was included in the Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI) on the Web of Science Core Collection platform and the international SCOPUS database. The publication is also included in the Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ). Indexing in scientometric databases significantly increases the accessibility, popularity, and citations of the journal. Today, the scientific journal, “Golden Horde Review,” is one of the most popular and authoritative scientific publications among specialists in this field, as evidenced by the active participation of historians from many countries around the world in the scientific activities of the journal.

CA-Markov chain for simulation and prediction of LULC and assessing the status of water pollution in Manzala Lake after recent development

The Egyptian government recently undertook a large-scale national dredging project to improve the properties and productivity of the northern lakes. Manzala Lake has a distinctive ecological system that offers locals a variety of ecological services. This study was occurred using an integrating approach of remote sensing and Markov modeling to determine the land use/cover (LULC) change of Manzala Lake’s components. The physiochemical characteristics of the water were also measured. Six LULC classes namely; water, crops, vegetation, urban areas, bare lands, and, sabkha were detected in and around the lake in three different years (1998, 2010, and 2022). The LULC transition was studied and predicted using the CA-Markov model. The area of surface water, flooded vegetation, sabkha, and urban areas were increased by the year of 2022. The bare lands were declined more comparing with the past periods. The new developments in Manzala Lake made more changes in the LULC of lake ecosystems. Also, it is an indication to exploitation the bare areas around lakes into new urban areas. The obtained results were necessary for the revised management plan. It is essential for managing the lakes’ land resources, and vital to carefully consider the development strategies to determine how these projects will influence on the environment and biodiversity. In addition, to what extent this lake productivity will improve and help in the recovery of Egypt’s national income.

İnanç Gelişimi ve Kimlik Siyaseti Üzerine Yorumlar: Belkıs Kıssası Örneği

Fowler’s faith development theory is one of the most comprehensive faith development theories in recent times. Some data of this theory, which covers the life process of the individual, and some comments about identity politics were made through the story of Belkıs. The Qur'an not only wants to convey historical information about the events of the past period, but also wants to have been interpreted these historical events. One of these historical events is the story of Belkıs and Prophet Solomon. In this study, belief development and identity politics of Belkıs and her society will be evaluated in terms of belief development theory. Identity politics is a factor that affects the social development of the individual. Even the development of faith can be influenced by identity politics. Although identity politics seems to affect individual and social development in terms of religious beliefs, in some cases, belief development can also affect identity politics. Here is the situation of the parable of Belkıs, an example of this. When the parable of Belkıs is analysed, it will be seen that while the belief development of a society can develop depending on a manager, the belief development of that manager can determine the identity politics of her own society. If Belkıs did not want her society to enter a new religious belief in terms of identity politics and preferred to fight with the prophet Solomon, the society and bureaucracy that supported her would have also supported her. However, Belkıs preferred dialogue instead of war and adopted the new religious belief. Thus, the society that followed her accepted this new belief. From the point of view of Fowler's belief development, this attitude of Belkıs shows that she is in transition from the fourth to the fifth phase in terms of belief development. As a result, Belkıs did not have any difficulties in adopting a new belief since flexible belief was in the development stage, and her own society did not rebel against her policy. Key Words: Belief Development, Belief Development Theory, Identity Politics, Belkıs, Prophet Solomon.

Mission of Samara State Transport University

Samara State Transport University (SamGUPS) is the largest transport university in the Volga Federal District, training specialists for the country’s railway transport and for many other areas of the national economy.The institution was founded in 1973 as the Kuibyshev Institute of Railway Transport Engineers, primarily to meet the need for highly qualified engineering staff of the Kuibyshev Railway, one of the largest railway enterprises of the USSR.In 1991, in connection with the renaming of the city of Kuibyshev and the return of its historical name Samara, the university was renamed Samara Institute of Railway Transport Engineers (SamIIT).Over the past period the higher education institution has consistently raised its academic status — first to the Academy, becoming Samara State Transport Academy, and in 2007 — winning the right to be called Samara State Transport University.The article presents the main goals and objectives of the university and the achieved results of the university development, tells about the interaction of Samara State University of Railway Transport with related branch and engineering universities in our country and abroad, tells about the interaction with transport, construction and infrastructure enterprises in the cities of the region.

About the Possibility of Using Digital Twins of Organizations in the State Planning System

The article considers the possibility of using a digital twin of the social system in the system of state planning. It is shown that the use of a digital twin makes it possible to ensure greater transparency of the activities and status of organizations included in the state planning system for public administration bodies, calculate the risks of activities for the implementation of state programs and projects, as well as timely calculate the consequences of changes in operating conditions and make decisions to correct activities. A comprehensive mathematical agent-based model of a social system functioning in an active environment, which is the basis of a digital twin, is briefl y characterized. The model is based on a strict theoretical framework describing the laws of the evolution of the social system in the socio-economic space. It simulates the dynamics of a social system, operating with a strictly limited number of entities, some of which are invariant, and some are variable values. This set of entities allows us to comprehensively describe the phenomena and processes observed in social systems. As a result of in-depth study of the nature of social systems, using an interdisciplinary approach, it became possible to determine a set of phase variables that accurately describe the situation of a social system in the socio-economic space and formalize patterns linking the values of phase variables and the results of the functioning of the organization. This makes it possible to trace its dynamics by fi xing changes in the values of phase variables. This makes it possible to record the situation in the digital twin of the social system, which makes it possible to ensure transparency of its state for interested persons. This, in turn, makes it possible to use a digital twin to calculate the dynamics of the system for the purposes of planning its evolution. Due to the peculiarities of the model, the use of a digital twin does not require signifi cant amounts of data from the past period — it is enough to fi x the current state of the organization in order to be able to calculate its dynamics for development planning purposes. This makes it possible to include newly created organizations and individual projects, including socially signifi cant and defense ones, into the state planning system.

საინვესტიციო გარემოს შეფასების აქტუალური საკითხები

საინვესტიციო გარემოს შეფასების აქტუალური საკითხები

Linking Climate Change Information with Crop Growing Seasons in the Northwest Ethiopian Highlands

In Ethiopia, the impacts of climate change are expected to have significant consequences for agriculture and food security. This study investigates both past (1981–2010) and future (2041–2070) climate trends and their influence on the length of the growing season (LGS) in the North-Western Ethiopian highlands. Climate observations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia, while the best performing and highest resolution models from the CMIP5 experiment and RCP6 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project and representative concentration pathway 6) were used for the analysis. Standard statistical methods were applied to compute soil water content, evaluate climate variability and trends, and assess their impact on the length of the growing season. Maximum temperature (tasmax) and minimum temperature (tasmin) inter-annual variability anomalies show that the region has experienced cooler years than hotter years in the past. However, in the future, the coolest years are expected to decrease by −1.2 °C, while the hottest years will increase by +1.3 °C. During the major rainfall season (JJAS), the area has received an adequate amount of rainfall in the past and is very likely to receive similar rainfall in the future. On the other hand, the rainfall amount in the season February to May (FMAM) is expected to assist only with early planting. For the season October to January (ONDJ), the rainfall amount may help lengthen the growing season of JJAS if properly utilized; otherwise, the season has the potential to destroy crops before and during the harvesting time. The soil water content changes in the future remain close to those of the past period. The length of growing seasons has less variable onset and cessation dates, while in the future, the length of the growing period (LGP) of 174 to 177 days will be suitable for short- and long-cycle crops, as well as double cropping, benefiting crop production yield in the North-Western Ethiopian highlands in the future.

Нерешени проблеми на съвременната природогеографска и селищна топонимия на България

Numerous examples of the modern names of settlements, mountains, peaks and rivers in Bulgaria are presented, which continue to bear foreign-language names from past periods of Bulgaria‘s history, as well as those related to the declared criminal communist regime in the country (1944-1989). Reasoned proposals have been made to replace some of these names with Bulgarian ones.

Frequentmers - a novel way to look at metagenomic next generation sequencing data and an application in detecting liver cirrhosis

Early detection of human disease is associated with improved clinical outcomes. However, many diseases are often detected at an advanced, symptomatic stage where patients are past efficacious treatment periods and can result in less favorable outcomes. Therefore, methods that can accurately detect human disease at a presymptomatic stage are urgently needed. Here, we introduce “frequentmers”; short sequences that are specific and recurrently observed in either patient or healthy control samples, but not in both. We showcase the utility of frequentmers for the detection of liver cirrhosis using metagenomic Next Generation Sequencing data from stool samples of patients and controls. We develop classification models for the detection of liver cirrhosis and achieve an AUC score of 0.91 using ten-fold cross-validation. A small subset of 200 frequentmers can achieve comparable results in detecting liver cirrhosis. Finally, we identify the microbial organisms in liver cirrhosis samples, which are associated with the most predictive frequentmer biomarkers.

Obliquity forcing of Late Pliocene–Early Pleistocene aridification in the Qaidam Basin, NE Tibetan Plateau

Knowledge of the variations of aridification during past warm periods can help predict future aridification trends. However, the variation of aridity during the warm Pliocene epoch, a potential analog for the future climate, has not been sufficiently studied due to the lack of high-resolution records. Here, we present high-resolution (∼7 kyr) oxygen and carbon isotope records spanning the Late Pliocene–Early Pleistocene from the Qaidam Basin, northwestern China. We interpret enriched carbonate δ18O value as indicating stronger evaporation, based on the general correlation between the enrichment of carbonate δ18O and an increased sedimentary halite content. Our results reveal that the Qaidam Basin was already an extremely arid environment no later than ∼3.9 Ma, and that aridification was further intensified at ∼2.6 Ma. Interestingly, the Qaidam Basin experienced decreased aridity or climate wetting during the high insolation intervals within the middle Piacenzian warm period, in contrast with the intensified aridity in the semi-arid Chinese Loess Plateau. Strikingly, the Qaidam Basin experienced intensified aridification during high-obliquity intervals, with smaller global ice sheets, during 3.6–2.5 Ma. We attribute this obliquity signal of Asian aridification to the effects of insolation and possibly glacial forcing, via their impacts on regional evaporation and reduced monsoon precipitation. Using the Late Pliocene as an analogue, our findings suggest that future aridification variations in Central Asia during the next ∼100 kyr may be dominated by 40-kyr cycles, under natural climatic forcing.

The Impact of the Deregulation of Covid-19 on the Pharmaceutical Industry

The current COVID-19 has lasted for a long time, and the Chinese government has relaxed the control of the pandemic after many considerations. Numerous researches about the COVID-19's effects on the economy and business are currently available. But few studies are on the pharmaceutical industry and the Deregulation. Therefore, this paper selects the Pharmaceutical and Biological Full Benefit as the research object. And then uses the ARIMA model to perform time series fitting and prediction of the closing price series in the past period. By comparing the predicted and real values, how the Deregulation affected the stock price of the biopharmaceutical sector could be determined. After modeling analysis, it is concluded that a positive effect has been produced by the Deregulation on the stock price of the pharmaceutical industry. Further study shows that there is a short-term lag in the impact, and the relative growth rate is not large. And the impact has been observed with certain short-term nature through the prediction results. This paper innovatively uses stock price fluctuations as an insertion point to explore the impact of the Deregulation on the pharmaceutical industry, which has profound practical guiding significance. For Chinese policy makers, it is suggested that the country should cooperate with the improvement and upgrading of the pharmaceutical industry. For investors, it is suggested that they should maintain a more stable and positive wait-and-see attitude towards the pharmaceutical industry.

Extreme rainfall events variation during 1860–1909 in the Korean Peninsula: Investigation of the possible circulation mechanism by a method of analogue

In the present paper, we made an investigation of extreme rainfall events for 1860―1909 in the Korean Peninsula, and the possible atmospheric circulation state by comparing recent rainfall variability with atmospheric circulation indices. In the present study, very significant historical rainfall records and flood damage records since the mid-19th century, modern rainfall records and global climate reanalysis data were applied. Results show: (1) Pentad extreme rainfall events had undergone a clear decrease, with an abrupt falling after shifting point of 1879―1880. (2) The monthly frequencies of extreme rainfall events revealed remarkable descent trends for June–October, which changed from 29 time/pentad to 7.3 time/pentad on average, especially for July–September. (3) Almost all climate zones except for northern land displayed significant decreasing trends, nevertheless no clear incidence of extreme rainfall event was found over the typical pluvial regions. (4) Through an analogue method by comparing the extreme precipitation weather and the atmospheric mechanism for recent decades (1961―2016), we suggested that West Pacific Subtropical High had experienced a strengthen change for the past period and the typhoon-related torrential rain processes had been suppressed for the study area, and the upper air jet stream might have been displaced poleward during 1860―1909. This study made a first investigation of the extreme rainfall events since the mid-19th century applying both instrumental and documental records in the study area, and some significant findings were obtained, which will help in understanding extreme climate variability and its mechanism of late 19th century and early 20th century in the Korean Peninsula.

Corporate Social Responsibility and Tax Avoidance: Do Socially Responsible Firms in Indonesia Pay More Taxes

The practice of tax avoidance in companies has increased since 2000, and has harmed the country's economic development. Tax avoidance is as vital as environmental issues, in this case it is interpreted as a form of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) report. This research tries to analyze environmental, social, and governance performance that influences tax avoidance activities in companies, with a sample of 86 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the past 10-year period, namely 2013-2022. The research method used is quantitative, using data obtained from financial reports, annual reports, and other quantitative data through the Refinitiv Eikon database. The data analysis technique used is panel regression using the Eviews 9.0 application. The research results show that the level of CSR reporting based on ESG performance has a negative effect on tax avoidance practices. A low level of CSR reporting actually indicates high tax avoidance, meaning that CSR disclosure or reporting is only a formality for compliance with policy, but the level of tax avoidance is actually quite high. This is a form of action from the company to maximize the gaps that exist in tax laws and regulations in Indonesia. This research also shows that CSR disclosure is reflected in ESG performance, so it is necessary to expand other variables over a certain time span. Further research can also be carried out using other methods, with the hope that the research results can make a positive contribution to both stakeholders and the company.

Beyond the Ballot: A Comparative Analysis of Political Microtargeting Practices and Regulations in Kenya and Nigeria

Technological advancements have significantly impacted the political world. Unlike the traditional means of conducting campaigns, technology makes it possible to conduct data-driven campaigns on a larger scale and with high levels of specificity. For political parties, better clarity leads to hyper-individualized communication in a process known as microtargeting. Critics argue that political microtargeting can directly manipulate and suppress voters, exacerbate polarization, perpetuate misinformation, and indirectly lead to long-term effects by encouraging political parties to ignore individuals whom they deem unlikely to vote or those who are digitally excluded. This paper studies political microtargeting in Kenya and Nigeria because of data-driven campaigns that have been observed in these jurisdictions in the past and due to the increased reliance on social media platforms that political actors are utilizing to influence voters. It argues that political microtargeting is an issue of concern and therefore, using Kenya and Nigeria, it pushes the agenda that countries in the Global South should implement policies and regulations to curtail the negative impact of the practice. To examine the extent of political microtargeting in both Kenya and Nigeria, this paper employs a multi-phase approach that involves an analysis of paid Facebook advertisements in both countries during the past election periods.

Constraining the end of the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level highstand in central Mediterranean: New data from Grotta delle Capre, central Italy

The current rapid change of the Earth's climate has resulted in an increasing interest for the past warm periods as potential long-term scenarios of the effects of the present global warming. The last such a period occurred 129–116 ka, known as the Last Interglacial (LIG), when the continental ice volume was significantly smaller than present, leading to a global sea-level (GSL) higher than present one. Detailed morpho-stratigraphic data, supported by a robust U/Th chronology, from Grotta delle Capre, central Italy, provided new chronological insights on the relative sea-level (RSL) dynamic during the LIG in the Mediterranean region. Our results indicate that, on Tyrrhenian Sea coasts of the central Italy, after having stationed at ∼9 m a.s.l., the LIG RSL fell at an elevation <3 m a.s.l. as early as before 123 ka, and then no longer rose above this elevation either during the later stages of the LIG or afterwards. The results match previous studies based on U/Th dating of terrestrial limiting points from Grotta Infreschi, ∼200 km SE from Grotta delle Capre along the same Tyrrhenian Sea coasts, and are in agreement with the Red Sea RLS and GSL records and the probabilistic LIG sea level assessments based on globally distributed records. On the other hand, our reconstruction is not supported by implications of U/Th dating of corals and phreatic overgrowth on speleothems from the Balearic Island of Mallorca. Such an inconsistency in the overall knowledge around the LIG RSL reconstruction results in a high uncertainty in modelling the ice and sea-level dynamic during this warm period, which needs to be reduced through more and more high-resolution, stratigraphic and chronological investigations of the morphological and sedimentary sea-level records.

Drought-heatwave compound events are stronger in drylands

Climate change is exacerbating the occurrence of compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs), which pose a serious threat to human health and socio-economic development. Using daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and monthly self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI) dataset, the evolution patterns of CDHWs and compound wet-heatwave events, the dominant drivers and the relative contributions of droughts and heatwaves in the drylands and humid areas from 1961 to 2020 were compared and analyzed. The results show that the CDHWs are stronger in drylands than in humid areas, the growth rate of CDHWs in drylands was almost twice that of the humid areas, the CDHWs are greater than the multi-year average intensity of compound wet-heatwave events by up to 2.4 times. Moreover, CDHWs has increased significantly from the past period (1961–1990) to the recent warm period (1991–2020), and the heatwave threshold has increased by about 5 °C. In most drylands, the contribution of heatwaves to CDHWs dominates, whereas in humid areas, the droughts contribution to CDHWs does. The compounding effects of droughts and heatwaves may exacerbate the severity of CDHWs regionally and are most pronounced in drylands, taking into account optimal lags. The study findings could provide scientific and technological support to actively address global climate change risks.

Unveiling an Environmental Drought Index and its applicability in the perspective of drought recognition amidst climate change

As a complex natural disaster, drought encompasses significant and wide-ranging impacts on various environmental aspects. While meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socioeconomic droughts have been extensively studied, the scientific understanding of environmental droughts (the proposed fifth classification) remains relatively limited, hampering practical assessment efforts. To address this gap, the present study, for the first time, conducted a rigorous assessment of the applicability of a novel method, namely the heuristic method, in conjunction with a newly developed Environmental Drought Index (EDI). The present study thoroughly analyzed environmental drought events in India's Brahmani River basin, specifically focusing on the Jaraikela catchment. Firstly, the Minimum in-stream Flow Requirement (MFR) was determined using Tennant’s method to synthetically estimate discharge rates to maintain the optimum flow range during the historical period (1980–2014). Secondly, Drought Duration Length (DDL) was calculated by counting consecutive water deficit months with negative monthly Streamflow Rate (SFR) and MFR differences. Three General Circulation Models (GCMs) output ensembles, namely EC-Earth3, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and MRI-ESM2-0, participating in CMIP-6, were used for past (1980–2014) and future periods (FP-1: 2015–2022, FP-2: 2023–2045) under emission scenarios SSP245 and SSP585. The HydroClimatic Conceptual Streamflow (HCCS) model was employed to simulate the historical and future SFR. Thirdly, the largest water deficit magnitude during DDL was used to estimate the Water Shortage Level (WSL). Finally, integrating DDL and WSL provided the EDI for each environmental drought event. Results demonstrated a strong correspondence between the simulated EDI obtained using MPI-ESM1-2-HR under SSP585 and the observed EDI values, thereby indicating the credibility of the EDI in assessing environmental droughts. Furthermore, the study found severe droughts (i.e., EDI-3) dominating (71–73% of all droughts; occurring during non-monsoonal months) during FP-2 under SSP585 across all three GCMs, differing from moderate droughts in SSP245 of FP-2, both scenarios of FP-1, and the historical period. Based on the findings, the study finally proposed several adaptive measures to mitigate the impacts of increasing environmental drought events in the catchment.

Delayed postglacial colonization of Betula in Iceland and the circum North Atlantic

As the Arctic continues to warm, woody shrubs are expected to expand northward. This process, known as ‘shrubification,’ has important implications for regional biodiversity, food web structure, and high-latitude temperature amplification. While the future rate of shrubification remains poorly constrained, past records of plant immigration to newly deglaciated landscapes in the Arctic may serve as useful analogs. We provide one new postglacial Holocene sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) record of vascular plants from Iceland and place a second Iceland postglacial sedaDNA record on an improved geochronology; both show Salicaceae present shortly after deglaciation, whereas Betulaceae first appears more than 1000 y later. We find a similar pattern of delayed Betulaceae colonization in eight previously published postglacial sedaDNA records from across the glaciated circum North Atlantic. In nearly all cases, we find that Salicaceae colonizes earlier than Betulaceae and that Betulaceae colonization is increasingly delayed for locations farther from glacial-age woody plant refugia. These trends in Salicaceae and Betulaceae colonization are consistent with the plant families’ environmental tolerances, species diversity, reproductive strategies, seed sizes, and soil preferences. As these reconstructions capture the efficiency of postglacial vascular plant migration during a past period of high-latitude warming, a similarly slow response of some woody shrubs to current warming in glaciated regions, and possibly non-glaciated tundra, may delay Arctic shrubification and future changes in the structure of tundra ecosystems and temperature amplification.

Delayed postglacial colonization of Betula in Iceland and the circum North Atlantic.

As the Arctic continues to warm, woody shrubs are expected to expand northward. This process, known as 'shrubification,' has important implications for regional biodiversity, food web structure, and high-latitude temperature amplification. While the future rate of shrubification remains poorly constrained, past records of plant immigration to newly deglaciated landscapes in the Arctic may serve as useful analogs. We provide one new postglacial Holocene sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) record of vascular plants from Iceland and place a second Iceland postglacial sedaDNA record on an improved geochronology; both show Salicaceae present shortly after deglaciation, whereas Betulaceae first appears more than 1000 y later. We find a similar pattern of delayed Betulaceae colonization in eight previously published postglacial sedaDNA records from across the glaciated circum North Atlantic. In nearly all cases, we find that Salicaceae colonizes earlier than Betulaceae and that Betulaceae colonization is increasingly delayed for locations farther from glacial-age woody plant refugia. These trends in Salicaceae and Betulaceae colonization are consistent with the plant families' environmental tolerances, species diversity, reproductive strategies, seed sizes, and soil preferences. As these reconstructions capture the efficiency of postglacial vascular plant migration during a past period of high-latitude warming, a similarly slow response of some woody shrubs to current warming in glaciated regions, and possibly non-glaciated tundra, may delay Arctic shrubification and future changes in the structure of tundra ecosystems and temperature amplification.