Past Performance Research Articles

Review on the Risk Assessment to Determine Guarantee Fee Standardization (Case Study: PT XYZ, Jakarta)

This article thoroughly examines the process of creating a guarantee fee structure based on risk assessment, specifically focusing on PT XYZ as a case study. This addresses the necessity for a systematic methodology to ascertain guarantee fees that precisely reflect the related risks while guaranteeing fairness and openness. The report emphasizes the significance of infrastructure development in driving Indonesia’s economic growth and the contribution of state-owned firms such as PT PII. The existing techniques for determining guarantee fees are uneven and need a systematic approach, resulting in protracted negotiations and possible biases. This study seeks to close this divide by presenting a standardized approach derived from thoroughly examining existing literature and evaluating risk factors. These risk factors encompass credit rating, financial stability, loan duration, guarantee scope, project intricacy, past performance, and contingency planning. The methodology’s success is demonstrated through its application to PT XYZ Project A, validating its practicality. The results highlight the framework’s capacity to offer transparent and fair calculations of guarantee fees that precisely represent the risk profiles of projects.

Development of a universal atomistic cement model incorporating nanomaterials: From laboratory investigation to molecular simulation

Hydrated cement is considered one of the most complex binder systems. The development of models that suitably represent hydrated cement is still far from established due to the complexity of the hydration process, as well as the multiscale phase and different morphological properties. Therefore, this study attempts to develop a hydrated cement model using molecular-level simulation and laboratory testing. This model aimed to predict the mechanical properties of cement paste between 0.25 and 0.65 w/c ratios. In this regard, five cement paste mixtures with various w/c ratios were prepared and tested to evaluate their mechanical properties and micro-structures. Then, a novel modeling methodology using molecular dynamics (MD) simulation was carried out to develop an ingredient-based atomistic cement model. In this regard, the Dreiding force field (DFF) was used in all the simulation processes, starting from the cement clinker phases to the hydrated cement. The experimental results of cement paste mixtures revealed some useful data that was supportive of the simulations. Radial distribution function (RDF) and fractional free volume (FFV) were utilized to investigate the local atomic structure of the cement paste models. The calcium-silicate-hydrated (C–S–H) of the developed model was characterized through RDF and benchmarked to a well-known mineral analog, namely tobermorite. The developed model was computationally tested under different w/c ratios, and reliable results in terms of micro-structural matrix as well as mechanical properties were obtained. Then, the cement models incorporating different ratios of nano-silica were developed, and a good estimation of the mechanical properties was obtained. Because of the universal nature of the reported model in this research, it could be utilized to further predict the mechanical behavior and durability performance of the cement paste.

Why donors give during emergencies—An institutional analysis on government transparency

AbstractThis study employs an institutional approach to examine and explain donor‐giving to a government during emergencies. Using data from 120 countries during Covid‐19 and other sources, we tested a process transparency explanation against a performance transparency perspective. We find that a donor's decision to give to a government during emergencies is likely influenced by the availability and quality of process‐oriented fiscal information, not past performance or impact information of the government. This result indicates that it is important for governments, especially those without proper transparency institutions and practice, to establish reporting measures in process‐oriented information such as revenue sources, spending directions, and debt levels during emergencies. These insights have significant theoretical and policy implications for countries, especially developing countries, to develop government transparency.

Exploring support and opposition to regulatory approaches for wildfire risk management: requirements, voluntary actions, and tailored local action

AbstractFormal requirements of wildfire mitigation on private properties are increasingly being considered as one avenue for “scaling up” wildfire management and voluntary mitigation actions to landscape scales. Likewise, enduring segments of wildfire research suggest that residents’ perceptions about potential wildfire risk sources in their landscape, including ignition sources, are critical considerations related to support for mitigation efforts such as formal requirements or cross-boundary fuel reduction initiatives. The research presented in this article utilized mixed-method, residential surveys of property owners in Kittitas County, Washington, to explore influences on support for wildfire mitigation requirements and performance of voluntary mitigations on private lands. We found a high degree of variability in support for regulatory approaches, including relatively low levels of support for building or retrofitting regulations and a moderate level of support for vegetation management regulations. Perceptions about wildfire risk sources or public land management, past performance of wildfire mitigation actions, and support for shared, locally managed mitigations all correlated with support for differing regulatory approaches. We also found that performance of voluntary mitigation actions correlated with increasing wildfire program participation, differed among part-time or full- time residents, and were influenced by proximity to nearby property boundaries. Our results suggest that the most supported strategy in the study area may be the establishment of local, tax funded districts that encourage voluntary mitigation actions tailored to local circumstances. We conclude the paper by comparing our results to existing lessons from wildfire social science.

SME productivity and university collaboration: does past performance influence future performance?

PurposeAs little is known about the productivity levels of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) engaging with universities and the relative changes in productivity of SMEs subsequent to these collaborations, the paper examines the following questions: (1) Does the relative productivity of SMEs engaging in university collaboration differ from those that do not? (2) Are subsequent changes in firm productivity following university collaboration related to their initial levels of productivity?Design/methodology/approachThe paper utilises data on 254 SMEs from the Longitudinal Small Business Survey and uses two statistical techniques: First, bivariate tests of difference were used to inspect the relationships between productivity levels and whether the firm collaborated with a university to introduce its innovation. Second, ordinary least squares regressions were used to test whether the future productivity of SMEs that collaborated with universities was related to their initial productivity levels.FindingsThe analysis reveals that SME–university collaboration is unrelated to starting productivity. Furthermore, the analysis suggests a nonlinear relationship exists between the starting productivity of SMEs and their subsequent productivity following a university collaboration. Therefore, higher levels of subsequent productivity are observed among those SMEs where starting productivity was either relatively low or high, suggesting that collaborations have a transformative effect on SMEs with relatively lower initial levels of productivity and a maintenance effect for SMEs with relatively higher levels of initial productivity.Practical implicationsGiven the fact that the extant literature also suggests that, overall, university collaboration is beneficial, policymakers should strive to encourage greater levels of collaboration involving SMEs. In light of the evidence that SME–university collaborations can transform less productive firms, it appears unjustified for practitioners and policymakers to only consider stronger-performing firms to be included in such programmes.Originality/valueThe study contributes new theoretical and practical knowledge to the understanding of the role of firm productivity in predicting the proclivity of firms to collaborate with universities. Furthermore, as few studies have examined the impact of these collaborations on the subsequent productivity of firms that collaborate with universities, this paper fills an existing gap in the literature.

Rheological behavior and early-age hydration performance of blended cement pastes incorporating recycled brick powder and slag

This study focuses on blended cement pastes incorporating recycled brick powder (RBP) and slag. The effects of RBP and slag on the rheological behavior and early-age hydration performance of blended cement pastes with different substitution levels ranging from 0 % to 40 % have been studied by testing mini-slump flow, rheological properties, hydration products, pore structure, and phase distribution. The results show that the incorporation of RBP reduces the fluidity by 3.8 %-24.6 % and increases the yield stress of pastes by 4.1 %-53.4 %, while the combined use of RBP and slag proves effective in controlling the rheological properties. Furthermore, the addition of RBP and slag significantly reduces the hydration products and increases the total porosity of blended cement pastes by 4.3 %-16.9 % at 24 h. Notably, RBP and slag accelerate Portland cement hydration in early-age stage, attributed to nucleation and dilution effects. These findings offer valuable insights for the application of RBP in low-carbon cementitious materials.

Integration of the sustainable development Goals (SDGs) in architecture curriculum – quantifying the extent of SDG contributions

Addressing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has become of paramount importance for higher education institutions; however, a lack of a transparent, transferrable approach to identifying and quantifying the extent of SDG contributions hinders the ability to benchmark against past performance or other institutions. In this study, a four-level, quantitative SDG contribution classification system was developed and applied to a Bachelor of Architectural Design program of an Australian university, by analysing all learning contents and assessment tasks for all the course of the Program. Results show that overall, the highest contributions were towards targets from SDG11 and SDG7, though most SDGs were addressed at some level. Contributions were mainly associated to lower cognitive learning levels, though there was a shift to higher-level (e.g. applications) contributions towards the last year of the program. Results also show that convenor-driven contributions, especially for some specific SDGs, can be significant, though in most cases SDG contributions were deemed part of core assessment/learning contents. The proposed approach provides a numerical assessment of SDGs contributions of a university-level program, which could be refined in the future and used more systematically by other institutions to benchmark and track progress towards achieving these goals.

Surgery in Crohn's Disease: Past Performance Does Predict Future Results.

Surgery in Crohn's Disease: Past Performance Does Predict Future Results.

Myths of Zimbabwean urban nationalism: Narratives of modernity and exceptionalism in the economic crisis

AbstractZimbabwe has distinct urban nationalist myths stemming from the colonial period—urban modernity and economic exceptionalism. The modernity myth has been constructed from the colonial period and came to be associated with urban order, lifestyle and social mobility. The economic exceptionalism myth refers to Zimbabwe's past exceptional economic performance during the colonial and early postcolonial periods. However, the economic crisis and informalisation from the late 1990s have challenged these myths as neither previous practices of urban modernity nor the feeling of exceptional economic performance is attainable any more. In this context, people in the informal sector reimagine what these nationalist myths mean to them. In particular, they engage in debates about which economic practices are modern enough to be implemented in urban areas, especially in the city centre, and how to identify themselves make a claim to urban modernity. The memory of economic exceptionalism in the meantime acts as a reference point in discussions about future national development. All these translate into the question of legitimacy—of the informal economy and its practices and the government that failed to uphold the modernity and exceptionalism myths.

Synthesis and Performance of Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer with Viscosity-Reducing and Low-Shrinkage Properties for Fair-Faced Concrete.

A low-shrinkage and viscosity-reducing polycarboxylate superplasticizer was synthesized with maleic anhydride (MAH), diethylene glycol monobutyl ether, and methoxypoly (ethylene glycol) methacrylate (MPEGnMA). The surface tension, early shrinkage, cement paste performance, and application performance of concrete made with the synthesized water-reducing admixture were tested. A series of experiments were conducted to determine the optimal range of plastic viscosity coefficients for producing high-quality, fair-faced concrete with minimal surface defects. These experiments utilized both the synthesized water-reducing admixture alone and in combination with other water-reducing agents. The results showed that the synthesized water-reducing admixture had an ideal molecular structure, as confirmed by the GPC spectrum. When added to an aqueous solution, it reduced the surface tension from 72.47 mN/m to 30.56 mN/m. The 72 h shrinkage value of concrete was reduced by 20.6% compared with that of the conventional control group, effectively reducing shrinkage and adjusting the viscosity of the concrete mixture. Additionally, the influence of the plastic viscosity coefficient on the apparent voids in fair-faced concrete was investigated. This study revealed that when the plastic viscosity coefficient was between 5 and 10 Pa·s, the apparent void grade of the fair-faced concrete was simultaneously excellent and good. This water-reducing admixture helped prevent surface cracking and voids in fair-faced concrete, making it a suitable choice for producing high-quality fair-faced concrete surfaces.

The factors influencing the selection of fund management companies by Malaysian retail investors in the context of islamic unit trust funds

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of fund management companies' past performance, fees, perceived religiosity, and perceived risk on Malaysian Muslim investors' attitude toward them. The moderating effects of investor risk aversion, price sensitivity, religiosity, and Islamic financial literacy are considered. A model based on the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology is built to analyze the impact of the variables considered. The study data were collected using a survey of 550 Malaysian retail investors. Our findings show that Muslim investor attitudes are negatively affected by the perceived risk of a fund management company and positively affected by a fund management company's perceived religiosity and past performance. Moreover, the perceived religiosity impact is positively moderated by an investor's Islamic financial literacy and negatively moderated by the investor's price sensitivity. Practical implications of the results and avenues for further investigation in future research are discussed.

Effect of adsorption interactions of Arabic gum with cement

This study seeks to investigate the influence of cement and Arabic gum on the physico-mechanical and microstructural properties of cementitious composites. The influence of varying quantities of Arabic gum on the hydration, fluidity, mechanical performance and microstructure of cement paste was investigated. The influence of Arabic gum on slant shear performance and capillary water absorption was also investigated. The results indicate that the workability of cement was diminished as a result of the ability of Arabic gum to make the cement paste cohesive. It is evident that when the gum Arabic concentration increases from 147 to 174 mm, the resultant slump value for various w/b ratios drops. The adsorption characteristics showed that for a 15 mg g−1 dosage at 60, 45, 30, and 15 min, respectively, 1.43, 1.32, 1.25, and 1.03 mg g−1 are achieved. For 1% gum Arabic substitution, the highest flexural strength percentage growth is achieved at 38.46%, 23.74%, and 17.29% at 7, 14, and 28 days, respectively. In addition, the inclusion of Arabic gum improved the slant shear strength of cement composite, making it ideal for use as a building repair material with significant application potential. Experiments on the bonding behavior of the produced cementitious composite with the old mortar reveal that the shear bond strength was greatly increased, demonstrating the compatibility between the old and new cement composites. The microstructure and the porosity of the cement matrix also showed denser and compact matrix making them durable to attain better service life.

Investigating Financial Risk Behavior Prediction Using Deep Learning and Big Data

This paper introduces a sophisticated deep learning model designed to predict high-risk behaviors in financial traders by analyzing vast amounts of transaction data. The model begins with an unsupervised pre-training phase, learning distributed representations that capture complex data relationships autonomously. It then utilizes a deep neural network, enhanced through supervised learning, to classify and predict traders' risk levels effectively. We specifically focus on financial spread trading related to Contracts For Difference (CFD), identifying potential misuse of insider information and assessing the risks it poses to market makers. By distinguishing between high-risk (A-book) and lower-risk (B-book) clients, the model supports strategic hedging decisions, crucial for market stability. Our extensive evaluations confirm the model's robustness and accuracy, highlighting its significant potential for practical implementation in dynamic and speculative financial markets where past trading performance may not predict future outcomes. This advancement not only refines risk management strategies but also contributes broadly to the domain of financial technology.

Fusing foresight and futures thinking for a new transformative evaluation paradigm

AbstractThis paper explores the role and potential of foresight in evaluation practice in an increasingly uncertain and complex world. Evaluation designs, which have primarily focused on assessing past and present performance, are becoming less adequate for guiding organizations and strategies toward desired futures. Consequently, there is a pressing need for evaluations to adopt a more future‐focused approach. This article argues for the integration of foresight and futures thinking into evaluation methodologies to support transformative change and tackle the systemic challenges of our time. By drawing on an evaluation case study from the Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra, we demonstrate how applied foresight methods, including Horizon Scanning and a modified Delphi method, enhanced the evaluation process. These methods enabled a forward‐looking perspective essential for informing strategic decision‐making and programming. Specifically, the application of foresight methods in Sitra's evaluation supported assessing the relevance and timeliness of strategic choices, provided options for future programming, and deepened the understanding of complexities around ecological reconstruction and the operational environment. The paper contributes to the evolving discourse and practices on transformative evaluation by offering practical insights into the use of foresight methods, ultimately advocating for a paradigm shift toward more dynamic and future‐oriented evaluation practice.

Exploring the nexus between past financial performance and voluntary GRI adoption: The role of environmental certification

Numerous firms have adopted the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) standards to enhance sustainability. Using panel data from 2008 to 2020, we employ logit, probit, complementary log-log, and Cox survival analysis models to explore the factors which affect the adoption of the GRI standards in the context of voluntary disclosure in China. Our findings indicate that past financial performance significantly influences decisions on GRI adoption. Environmental certification moderates the effect of financial performance on GRI adoption. Notably, the cross-sectional test reveals that financial performance plays a stronger role in GRI adoption among companies with low information transparency compared to those with high information transparency.

‘When it floods, we work on our own’: Exploring factors influencing collective efficacy appraisals for community‐level flood measures among urban informal settlements in Suva, Fiji

AbstractMore than one billion people worldwide are living in urban informal settlements where flood risks are high. Positive collective efficacy beliefs can facilitate community‐level adaptive action. This sub‐study of the Revitalizing Informal Settlements and their Environments (RISE) trial, aimed to identify social and contextual factors influencing residents' collective efficacy appraisals about their settlement's ability to implement community‐level flood prevention, protection and response measures. Forty‐two in‐depth interviews were conducted in 10 settlements in Suva, Fiji using a photovoice methodology. Thematic analysis was used to elicit key themes, which were then interpreted and contextualized collaboratively with the local field team. The most salient influencing factors were formal leadership, shared needs or benefits, collective identity (whether via shared religion, ethnicity or regional/kinship group), past performance experiences and expectations around collective action. While the data revealed some between‐settlement variation on these factors, there was also a large degree of within‐settlement variation concerning perceptions of these factors. Community‐based flood programming should not be undertaken without first assessing the degree to which participants believe that programme objectives reflect shared needs or will yield shared benefits and whether those objectives warrant collective action according to the community's social expectations for participation and contribution.

Association between regulator inspection and ratings on primary care prescribing: an observational study in England 2014 to 2019

BackgroundHealthcare regulators in many countries undertake inspections of healthcare providers and publish inspection outcomes with the intention of improving quality of care. Comprehensive inspections of general practices in England by the Care Quality Commission began for the first time in 2014. It is assumed that inspection and rating will raise standards and improve care, but the presence and extent of any improvements is unknown. We aim to determine if practice inspection ratings are associated with past performance on prescribing indicators and if prescribing behaviour changes following inspection.MethodsLongitudinal study using a dataset of 6771 general practices in England. Practice inspection date and score was linked with monthly practice-level data on prescribing indicators relating to antibiotics, hypnotics and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The sample covers practices receiving their first inspection between September 2014 and December 2018. Regression analysis and the differential timing of inspections is used to identify the impact on prescribing.ResultsBetter-rated practices had better prescribing in the period before inspections began. In the six months following inspections, no overall change in prescribing was observed. However, the differences between the best and worse rated practices were reduced but not fully. The same is also true when taking a longer-term view. There is little evidence that practices responded in anticipation of inspection or reacted differently once the ratings were made public.ConclusionWhile some of the observed historic variation in prescribing behaviour has been lessened by the process of inspection and ratings, we find this change is small and appears to come from both improvements among lower-rated practices and deteriorations among higher-rated practices. While inspection and rating no doubt had other impacts, these prescribing indicators were largely unchanged.

Safeguarding the Internet of Things: Elevating IoT routing security through trust management excellence

This study presents an innovative IoT routing security model that integrates trust management to bolster network reliability, improve resilience against routing attacks, and isolate malicious activities. The model, emphasizing node behavior, reputation, and past performance, offers a nuanced approach to network security. Through comprehensive comparisons between dynamic and static models in IoT routing, the impact on crucial performance parameters, including throughput, packet delivery ratio, control traffic overhead, and energy consumption, is quantified. Simulations showcase the model's effectiveness in securing IoT communication, achieving an impressive 98 % accuracy in detecting and mitigating attacks. Comparative analysis against prior studies underscores its exceptional performance, particularly in identifying and classifying attack types such as wormhole, Sybil, and rank, alongside normal traffic. This trust-based IoT routing security model represents a substantial advancement in securing dynamic IoT environments, standing out as a valuable contribution. Noteworthy is its low average power consumption, contributing to its exceptional lightweight nature.

Screening CMIP6 models for Chile based on past performance and code genealogy

Screening CMIP6 models for Chile based on past performance and code genealogy

Application of ensemble machine learning techniques to the diagnosis of the combustion in a gas turbine

This paper describes a method based on the combination of several machine learning techniques, working together in an ensemble, with the aim of continuously monitoring the combustion of a gas turbine in a combined cycle by observing the available exhaust gas temperature measurements and operation condition variables. The goal of this monitoring is the automatic detection of anomalies in the combustion chambers, and possible faults in the measurement thermocouples in the gas turbine as soon as possible. Four gas turbines were studied, each one equipped with twenty-one thermocouples located at the exhaust gas outlet to measure the temperature in each combustion chamber. These sensors are located at the exhaust of the gas turbine, symmetrically distributed on a circle.The anomaly detection method developed is based on an ensemble that combines models characterizing the normal behavior expected without anomalies but also the analysis of the actual temperatures of the gas turbine. In particular, neural networks and principal component analysis (PCA) have been applied. These models are used to compare the current performance of the gas turbine with past performance in reference periods known as normal operating conditions, in which a homogeneous distribution of exhaust gas temperatures is observed and a functional relationship between these temperatures and the operating variables such as power output must be fulfilled. If the behavior observed is significantly different from what the designed system expects, it is analyzed to find the cause of this anomaly that could be focused on a specific thermocouple or some combustion chambers. The failure will be associated with a combustion chamber failure if several thermocouples from the same combustion chamber are shown as faulty. This is very useful for planning maintenance and for saving time by removing the problem observed. This paper describes the methods used and real cases of application, which have not been applied as a whole independent analysis system in previous researches. The results obtained have validated the strategy proposed.Gas turbines can fail due to different components, but the main focus of this article will be gas turbines combustor faults.