Past Eruptions Research Articles

Molten rock underlies North Korean volcano

Geological Sciences Mt. Paektu is a volcano responsible for one of the largest eruptions in the past few thousand years. However, its location on the North Korea-China border means that little is known about its history and underlying structure. In a North Korea/United Kingdom/United States collaboration, Song et al. used distant earthquakes recorded on seismometers in North Korea to look inside the volcano. They found evidence of molten rock within the volcano that may provide a source of the magma involved in past eruptions and recent volcanic unrest. Sci. Adv. 2 , 10.1126.sciadv.01513 (2016)

Active tectonic features and structural dynamics of the summit area of Mt. Etna (Italy) revealed by soil CO2 and soil temperature surveying

This work presents the results of an extensive geochemical survey aimed at measuring soil CO2 effluxes and soil temperatures over a large portion of Mt. Etna's summit area, coupled with an updated structural survey of the same area. The main goals of this study were i) to find concealed or hidden volcano-tectonic structures in the studied area by detecting anomalous soil gas emissions, ii) to investigate the origin of the emitted gas and the mechanism of gas and heat transport to the surface, iii) to produce a structural model based both on the surface geology and on the soil gas data and, lastly, iv) to contribute to the assessment of hazard from slope failure and crater collapses at Mt. Etna. The results revealed many concealed structural lines that followed the major directions of structural weakness in the summit area of Mt. Etna, mostly due to a combined action of gravitational spreading of the volcano and magma intrusions. Both recent and old volcano-tectonic lines were found to act as pathways for the leakage of magmatic gases to the surface. An important role in driving magmatic gases to the surface is also played by fracturing and faulting due to caldera-forming collapses and smaller crater collapses. Correlation between soil CO2 emissions and soil temperature allowed discriminating areas of active shallow hydrothermal circulation along deep fractures (characterized by high values of both parameters, but mostly soil temperature) from those affected by undeveloped fractures that did not reach the surface (characterized by high CO2 emissions at low temperature). The former corresponded to weak zones of the volcano edifice that were frequently site of past eruptions, indicating that those areas keep a high potential for future opening of eruptive fissures. The latter were likely related to sites where new eruptive fissures may open in the near future due to backward propagation of extensional tectonic stress.

Hazard zoning for volcanic ballistic impacts at El Chichón Volcano (Mexico)

The 1982 eruption of El Chichon Volcano in southeastern Mexico had a strong social, economic, and environmental impact. The eruption gave rise to the most disastrous volcanic events in Mexico, killing around 2000 inhabitants, displacing thousands, and resulting in severe economic losses. Despite some villages were relocated after this eruption, many people still live and work in the vicinities of the volcano and might be affected in the case of a new eruption. For this reason, it is important to identify the exposed zones. The published hazard map of El Chichon Volcano covers pyroclastic flows and surges, lahars, and ashfall, but not ballistic projectiles, which would represent an important threat in the case of an eruption. In fact, the fatalities reported in the first stage of the 1982 eruption were caused by ballistic projectiles and ashfall that induced roof collapse. In this study, the hazard zones for volcanic ballistic projectiles at El Chichon Volcano are delimited through a general methodology that has been applied to other volcanoes such as Popocatepetl (Alatorre-Ibarguengoitia et al. in Bull Volcanol 74:2155–2169, 2012. doi:10.1007/s00445-012-0657-2) and Colima (Alatorre-Ibarguengoitia et al. in Geol Soc Am Spec Paper 402:26–39, 2006). The maximum launching kinetic energy of projectiles identified in the field corresponding to past eruptions is reconstructed by using a ballistic model. These energies are then used to parameterize different explosion scenarios that can occur in the future. The maximum ranges expected for the projectiles in the different explosive scenarios defined for El Chichon Volcano are presented in a ballistic hazard map which complements the published hazard map. The responsible authorities may use this map to be able to mark off the restricted zones during volcanic crises.

Estimation of the refractive index of volcanic ash from satellite infrared sounder data

Abstract We investigated the spectral refractive indices (RIs) of volcanic ash materials in the wavenumber range of 700–1100 cm− 1 using satellite infrared sounder measurements and radiative transfer calculations. The ash RIs of 10 ash clouds from eight volcanoes were evaluated (Bezymianny on 2 September 2012, Chaiten on 3 May 2008, Kelut on 14 February 2014, Kirishimayama on 27 January 2011, Kliuchevskoi on 30 June 2007 and 18 October 2013, Puyehue–Cordon Caulle on 5 June 2011, Sangeang-Api on 31 May 2014, and Sheveluch on 28 October 2010 and 18 September 2012). We elaborated on a dataset of volcanic ash measurements made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard the Aqua satellite. The measured brightness temperatures in the ash cloud data revealed silicate absorption features at around 10 μm. By applying atmospheric profiles from results of a global data assimilation system and using ash cloud properties (ash optical depth, effective radius, and ash cloud height) as parameters for radiative transfer calculations, least squares analyses for the observed and calculated brightness temperatures were conducted using AIRS channels in the wavenumber range of 700–1100 cm− 1, except for the O3 absorption channels in the range of 980–1070 cm− 1. Using the RIs for typical volcanic rocks in the ascending order of SiO2 content, basalt, andesite, and rhyolite, a mixture of basalt and rhyolite and a mixture of andesite and rhyolite for the ash material were considered. The volume fraction of the mixture was used as a retrieval parameter and as the ash cloud parameter. Using the estimated ash cloud parameters as fixed values, and under the assumption that the RI from the estimated volume fraction had some accuracy in the wavenumber ranges of 850–980 cm− 1 and 1070–1100 cm− 1, the RI imaginary part of each eruptive ash cloud captured by AIRS was then determined from iterative calculations at wavenumbers between 750 cm− 1 and 980 cm− 1. In the wavenumber range of 850–980 cm− 1, the observed brightness temperatures could be approximately simulated using the reported RIs from Pollack, Toon, and Khare (1973) for andesite, basalt, and rhyolite, and their combinations. Furthermore, some estimated RIs were consistent with the reported rock types of the volcanoes, which had been previously classified by compositional analyses in the literature. Our analysis also identified weak absorptions around 750–850 cm− 1, which could not be reproduced by the reported RIs. These weak absorptions were likely due to Si–O and/or Al–O vibrations, which have been proposed in reports from previous laboratory experiments for some silicate glass samples. Our results suggest that the detailed RI of volcanic ash can be determined from an analysis of satellite infrared sounder data. The RI of the ash material estimated from satellite infrared sounder data can be used to improve the ash retrieval algorithms of other satellite measurements. Furthermore, an RI retrieved by sounder measurements may provide diagnostic information regarding volcanic activity from comparisons with the ash RIs from past eruptions.

Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 1. Vent opening maps

AbstractCampi Flegrei is an active volcanic area situated in the Campanian Plain (Italy) and dominated by a resurgent caldera. The great majority of past eruptions have been explosive, variable in magnitude, intensity, and in their vent locations. In this hazard assessment study we present a probabilistic analysis using a variety of volcanological data sets to map the background spatial probability of vent opening conditional on the occurrence of an event in the foreseeable future. The analysis focuses on the reconstruction of the location of past eruptive vents in the last 15 ka, including the distribution of faults and surface fractures as being representative of areas of crustal weakness. One of our key objectives was to incorporate some of the main sources of epistemic uncertainty about the volcanic system through a structured expert elicitation, thereby quantifying uncertainties for certain important model parameters and allowing outcomes from different expert weighting models to be evaluated. Results indicate that past vent locations are the most informative factors governing the probabilities of vent opening, followed by the locations of faults and then fractures. Our vent opening probability maps highlight the presence of a sizeable region in the central eastern part of the caldera where the likelihood of new vent opening per kilometer squared is about 6 times higher than the baseline value for the whole caldera. While these probability values have substantial uncertainties associated with them, our findings provide a rational basis for hazard mapping of the next eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera.

Electromagnetic Observations at Taal Volcano

The electromagnetic (EM) method first applied to monitor the activity of the Taal Volcano from 2005 consists of repeatedly surveying total magnetic intensity (TMF) and continuously measuring EM fields. The EM observation system was greatly improved through the SATREPS project summarized in this paper. The resistivity structure is investigated in the project using the magnetotelluric (MT) method. The MT method revealed a large hydrothermal reservoir just beneath the center of Volcano Island. The existence of this reservoir explains several things – the special features of the devastating 1911 eruption, i.e., that it was magmatic-hydrothermal, together with the geochemical characteristics of Main Crater Lake, especially the absence of SO2gas. The reservoir’s formation process provides useful suggestions for understanding the volcano’s past eruption cycle.

The impact of volcanic aerosol on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex: mechanisms and sensitivity to forcing structure

Abstract. Observations and simple theoretical arguments suggest that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex is stronger in winters following major volcanic eruptions. However, recent studies show that climate models forced by prescribed volcanic aerosol fields fail to reproduce this effect. We investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, including the strength of the NH polar vortex, in ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The model is forced by four different prescribed forcing sets representing the radiative properties of stratospheric aerosol following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo: two forcing sets are based on observations, and are commonly used in climate model simulations, and two forcing sets are constructed based on coupled aerosol–climate model simulations. For all forcings, we find that simulated temperature and zonal wind anomalies in the NH high latitudes are not directly impacted by anomalous volcanic aerosol heating. Instead, high-latitude effects result from enhancements in stratospheric residual circulation, which in turn result, at least in part, from enhanced stratospheric wave activity. High-latitude effects are therefore much less robust than would be expected if they were the direct result of aerosol heating. Both observation-based forcing sets result in insignificant changes in vortex strength. For the model-based forcing sets, the vortex response is found to be sensitive to the structure of the forcing, with one forcing set leading to significant strengthening of the polar vortex in rough agreement with observation-based expectations. Differences in the dynamical response to the forcing sets imply that reproducing the polar vortex responses to past eruptions, or predicting the response to future eruptions, depends on accurate representation of the space–time structure of the volcanic aerosol forcing.

79 AD Vesuvius PDC deposits' temperatures inferred from optical analysis on woods charred in-situ in the Villa dei Papiri at Herculaneum (Italy)

Determining the deposit temperature of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) is a first order priority in the assessment of volcanic hazard. For past eruptions, in which no direct measurements are possible, PDC deposit temperatures have been calculated mainly using magnetic proxies. A more recent and innovative approach consists of the determination of the degree of charring of preserved wood fragments by optical analysis. In this study, we perform optical analyses on wooden beams belonging to the Villa dei Papiri at the archeological site of Herculaneum, which was destroyed by PDCs during the 79AD eruption of Vesuvius. The new temperature data from this study range between 240°C and 370°C, and are in good agreement with literature data for this eruption. The large T variation measured can be interpreted as due to the interaction of the PDCs with the local environment, i.e. the impacted buildings of the villa and the sea shoreline. The study of in situ charred wood allows to constrain the charring kinetics and to evaluate the sensitivity of the reflectance proxy in recording PDC depositional features. We demonstrate that the charcoal reflectance is an excellent proxy for the determination of the PDC deposit temperatures even at a local scale, and it can be used in conjunction with, or in alternative to other more traditional methodologies, especially in case of pre-heating effects which may alter the T determinations by thermoremanent magnetization.

Comment on “The Latest on Volcanic Eruptions and Climate”

Alan Robock (Eos, 94(35), 305–306, doi:10.1002/2013EO350001) nicely summarizes past volcanic eruptions and climate, but we wish to correct his assessment of our recent discovery of the Youngest Toba ash in the sediments of Lake Malawi in East Africa [Lane et al., 2013].

On the Sauce: Cratinus, Cyclopean Poetics, and the Roiling Sea of Epic

This paper suggests that in the play Odysseis , Cratinus turns Polyphemus into a figure of the Archilochean satirist and thus into an icon of his comic mode. The extant fragments of the play present a web of interlocking marine and culinary images rich in self-reflexive meaning. The intertextual analysis of these images—both at the level of metaphor and phonic materialità —reveals that Cratinus appropriates Polyphemus’s sublime abjection to depict the Archilochean stance of his comic self as the disturbing eruption of the Iliadic past into the world of the Odyssey .

Volcanic hazard on Deception Island (South Shetland Islands, Antarctica)

Deception Island is the most active volcano in the South Shetland Islands and has been the scene of more than twenty identified eruptions over the past two centuries. In this contribution we present the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for this volcanic island. The research is based on the use of probabilistic methods and statistical techniques to estimate volcanic susceptibility, eruption recurrence and the most likely future eruptive scenarios. We perform a statistical analysis of the time series of past eruptions and the spatial extent of their products, including lava flows, fallout, pyroclastic density currents and lahars. The Bayesian event tree statistical method HASSET is applied to calculate eruption recurrence, while the QVAST tool is used in an analysis of past activity to calculate the possibility that new vents will open (volcanic susceptibility). On the basis of these calculations, we identify a number of significant scenarios using the GIS-based VORIS 2.0.1 and LAHARZ software and evaluate the potential extent of the main volcanic hazards to be expected on the island. This study represents a step forward in the evaluation of volcanic hazard on Deception Island and the results obtained are potentially useful for long-term emergency planning.

Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

Abstract. Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for land-use planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure quality and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterisation of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios. Despite being a densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors per year, no systematic hazard assessment has ever been conducted on the Canary Islands. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the youngest of the Canary Islands and the most recently affected by an eruption. We analyse the past eruptive activity to determine the spatial and temporal probability, and likely style of a future eruption on the island, i.e. the where, when and how. By studying the past eruptive behaviour of the island and assuming that future eruptive patterns will be similar, we aim to identify the most likely volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards, which include lava flows, pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Finally, we estimate their probability of occurrence. The end result, through the combination of the most probable scenarios (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents and ashfall), is the first qualitative integrated volcanic hazard map of the island.

Occurrence of an unknown Atlantic eruption in the Chaîne des Puys volcanic field (Massif Central, France)

A volcanic ash layer, called MF1, was recently identified in Holocene sediments from the Gourgon and Molhiac peat bogs (Monts du Forez, French Massif Central). This ash layer consists of colorless shards with a heterogeneous trachytic to rhyolitic composition. The trace elements analyzed by Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) attest to a local origin. Radiocarbon dating of peat samples taken within and below the ash layer indicates the best age at 6339±61calyrBP, i.e. an age contemporaneous with the volcanic activity of Montchal, Montcineyre and Pavin volcanoes from the Chaîne des Puys volcanic field. These volcanoes are characterized by basaltic and trachytic products, thus the rhyolitic composition of MF1 tephra suggests that it is likely originated from an unknown eruption. These results again confirm the interest of studying the distal volcanic ash fallouts in order to establish or specify records of past eruptions of volcanic fields. Identification of this new tephra layer also provides an additional tephrochronological marker for Eastern French Massif Central.

CLUES TO THE NATURE OF SN 2009ip FROM PHOTOMETRIC AND SPECTROSCOPIC EVOLUTION TO LATE TIMES

We present time series photometric and spectroscopic data for the transient SN 2009ip from the start of its outburst in September 2012 until November 2013. This data was collected primarily with the new robotic capabilities of the Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope Network, a specialized facility for time domain astrophysics, and includes supporting high-resolution spectroscopy from the Southern Astrophysical Research Telescope, Kitt Peak National Observatory, and Gemini Observatory. Based on our nightly photometric monitoring, we interpret the strength and timing of fluctuations in the light curve as interactions between fast-moving ejecta and an inhomogeneous CSM produced by past eruptions of this massive luminous blue variable (LBV) star. Our time series of spectroscopy in 2012 reveals that, as the continuum and narrow H-alpha flux from CSM interactions declines, the broad component of H-alpha persists with SN-like velocities that are not typically seen in LBVs or SN Impostor events. At late times we find that SN 2009ip continues to decline slowly, at <0.01 magnitudes per day, with small fluctuations in slope similar to Type IIn supernovae (SNe IIn) or SN impostors, but no further LBV-like activity. The late time spectrum features broad calcium lines similar to both late time SNe and SN Impostors. In general, we find that the photometric and spectroscopic evolution of SN 2009ip is more similar to SNe IIn than either continued eruptions of an LBV star or SN Impostors. In this context, we discuss the implications for episodic mass loss during the late stages of massive star evolution.

Aspects of historical eruptive activity and volcanic unrest at Mt. Tongariro, New Zealand: 1846–2013

The 6 August and 21 November 2012 eruptions from Upper Te Maari crater have heightened interest in past activity at Mt. Tongariro, New Zealand. Risks caused by volcanic hazards are increasingly being quantified by using probability estimates through expert elicitation, partly based on the frequency of past eruptions. To maximise the accuracy of these risk values at Mt. Tongariro, a historical eruption catalogue is required.This paper presents the findings of a detailed historical chronology of unrest and eruptions at Mt. Tongariro between 1846AD and 2013AD. It builds on the findings of previous researchers, highlighting that volcanic eruptions and unrest have occurred frequently from this volcano. Eruptions are now thought to have occurred at Mt. Tongariro in 1869, 1892, 1896–97, 1899, 1926, 1927, 1934 and 2012. Eruptions also potentially occurred in 1846, 1855, 1886, and 1928, in addition to frequent eruptions from neighbouring Mt. Ngauruhoe. The number of recognised eruptions during the 1896–97 episode has increased to 18, and the Red Crater area has been found to be more active than previously appreciated. Multiple episodes of unrest not resulting in eruptions have also been identified.New eruption recurrence rates are derived from this catalogue, with the baseline probability of the onset of an eruption episode calculated to be 0.07 per year (if 1896–97 and 2012 are considered as one episode each, and all others separately), and the maximum eruption rate within an eruption episode is 18 per year. These new data contribute towards risk assessments for future eruptions at Mt. Tongariro.

Possible connection between large volcanic eruptions and level rise episodes in the Dead Sea Basin

The June 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption perturbed the atmosphere, triggering short-term worldwide changes in surface and lower troposphere temperatures, precipitation, and runoff. The following winter was anomalously wet in the Levant, with a ∼2-m increase in the Dead Sea level that created a distinct morphological terrace along the lake's shore. Given the global radiative and chemical effects of volcanogenic aerosols on climatic systems, we tested the hypothesis that the 1991–92 winter shore terrace is a modern analogue to the linkage between past volcanic eruptions and a sequence of shore terraces on the cliffs around the Dead Sea Basin (DSB). Sixteen shore terraces, detected using airborne laser scanning data, were interpreted as indicating short-term level rises due to episodes of enhanced precipitation and runoff during the dramatic drop in Lake Lisan's (palaeo-Dead Sea) level at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum. The terraces were compared with a dated time series of volcanogenic sulfate from the GISP2 ice core, and similar numbers of sulfate concentration peaks and shore terraces were found. Furthermore, a significant correlation was found between SO4 concentration peaks and the heights of the terraces. This correlation may indicate a link between the explosivity of past eruptions, the magnitude of stratospheric injection, and their impact on the northern hemisphere water balance. The record of such short-term climato-hydrological effects is made possible by the dramatic desiccation of Lake Lisan. Detailed records of such events, albeit rare because of their vulnerability and short longevity, provide an important demonstration of global climatic teleconnections.

Coupling eruption and tsunami records: the Krakatau 1883 case study, Indonesia

The well-documented 1883 eruption of Krakatau volcano (Indonesia) offers an opportunity to couple the eruption’s history with the tsunami record. The aim of this paper is not to re-analyse the scenario for the 1883 eruption but to demonstrate that the study of tsunami deposits provides information for reconstructing past eruptions. Indeed, though the characteristics of volcanogenic tsunami deposits are similar to those of other tsunami deposits, they may include juvenile material (e.g. fresh pumice) or be interbedded with distal pyroclastic deposits (ash fall, surges), due to their simultaneity with the eruption. Five kinds of sedimentary and volcanic facies related to the 1883 events were identified along the coasts of Java and Sumatra: (1) bioclastic tsunami sands and (2) pumiceous tsunami sands, deposited respectively before and during the Plinian phase (26–27 August); (3) rounded pumice lapilli reworked by tsunami; (4) pumiceous ash fall deposits and (5) pyroclastic surge deposits (only in Sumatra). The stratigraphic record on the coasts of Java and Sumatra, which agrees particularly well with observations of the 1883 events, is tentatively linked to the proximal stratigraphy of the eruption.

Assessing lava flow evolution from post-eruption field data using Herschel–Bulkley rheology

We present a method to estimate the rheology of a lava flow and reconstruct variations of eruption parameters from measurements of flow dimensions together with petrological analysis of samples from the solidified flow. The model assumes a Herschel–Bulkley lava rheology, which we demonstrate is a reasonable approximation from new analyses of samples and rheological measurements from past eruptions of Etna volcano, as well as published data for other lava compositions and crystal contents. We present a simplified 2-D model for the flow of a Herschel–Bulkley fluid over an inclined plane with a constant flux from a vent, which we validate with analogue experiments scaled to typical conditions of lava flows. Further analogue experiments with two fluids of different rheologies demonstrate the dominance of the rheology at the flow front in controlling the advance rate of the flow. The Herschel–Bulkley flow model was applied to a lava flow of the 2002 eruption on Etna volcano. Flow velocity and effusion rate were calculated from the post-eruption flow dimensions and rheology estimates along the length of the flow were based on the crystal content and glass compositions of samples. The results compare well with the observations during the eruption, with a mean flow rate of 19.5m3/s, which is in the range of the 15–20m3/s calculated by previous authors.

Spitzerobservations of a circumstellar nebula around the candidate luminous blue variable MWC 930

MWC 930 is a star just ~2{\deg} above the Galactic plane whose nature is not clear and that has not been studied in detail so far. While a post-Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) classification was proposed in the past, studies of its optical spectrum and photometry pointed toward strong variability, therefore the object was reclassified as a Luminous Blue Variable (LBV) candidate. LBVs typically undergo phases of strong mass loss in the form of eruptions that can create shells of ejecta around the star. Our goal is to search for the presence of such a circumstellar nebula in MWC 930 and investigate its properties. To do so, we make use of space-based infrared data from our Spitzer campaign performed with the InfraRed Array Camera (IRAC) and the InfraRed Spectrograph (IRS) as well as data from optical and infrared (IR) surveys. In our Spitzer images, we clearly detect an extended shell around MWC 930 at wavelengths longer than 5 um. The mid-infrared spectrum is dominated by the central star and mostly shows forbidden lines of [FeII], with an underlying continuum that decreases with wavelength up to ~15 um and then inverts its slope, displaying a second peak around 60 um, evidence for cold dust grains formed in a past eruption. By modeling the SED, we identify two central components, besides the star and the outer shell. These extra sources of radiation are interpreted as material close to the central star, maybe due to a recent ejection. Features of C-bearing molecules or grains are not detected.

Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru)

We propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for El Misti Volcano, a composite cone located <20 km from Arequipa. The second largest Peruvian city is a rapidly expanding economic centre and is classified by UNESCO as World Heritage. We apply the Bayesian Event Tree code for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH) to produce probabilistic hazard maps for the predominant volcanic phenomena that may affect c.900,000 people living around the volcano. The methodology accounts for the natural variability displayed by volcanoes in their eruptive behaviour, such as different types/sizes of eruptions and possible vent locations. For this purpose, we treat probabilistically several model runs for some of the main hazardous phenomena (lahars, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), tephra fall and ballistic ejecta) and data from past eruptions at El Misti (tephra fall, PDCs and lahars) and at other volcanoes (PDCs). The hazard maps, although neglecting possible interactions among phenomena or cascade effects, have been produced with a homogeneous method and refer to a common time window of 1 year. The probability maps reveal that only the north and east suburbs of Arequipa are exposed to all volcanic threats except for ballistic ejecta, which are limited to the uninhabited but touristic summit cone. The probability for pyroclastic density currents reaching recently expanding urban areas and the city along ravines is around 0.05 %/year, similar to the probability obtained for roof-critical tephra loading during the rainy season. Lahars represent by far the most probable threat (around 10 %/year) because at least four radial drainage channels can convey them approximately 20 km away from the volcano across the entire city area in heavy rain episodes, even without eruption. The Rio Chili Valley represents the major concern to city safety owing to the probable cascading effect of combined threats: PDCs and rockslides, dammed lake break-outs and subsequent lahars or floods. Although this study does not intend to replace the current El Misti hazard map, the quantitative results of this probabilistic multi-hazard assessment can be incorporated into a multi-risk analysis, to support decision makers in any future improvement of the current hazard evaluation, such as further land-use planning and possible emergency management.