Past Decisions Research Articles

Engaging Farmers and the Agriculture Industry Through the Testing Agricultural Performance Solutions Program

The University of Nebraska–Lincoln Testing Agricultural Performance Solutions (TAPS) program involves use of farm management competitions to increase engagement across producers, industry, and universities. Participants make several management decisions throughout the growing season in a controlled field trial held at the university research station. Results are analyzed, and awards are presented for most profitable farm, most efficient farm, and farm with the greatest grain yield. The TAPS program involves several techniques for facilitating participatory assistance, including two-way communication and transformational learning. It has resulted in participants' questioning their past management decisions and realizing that they need to improve their marketing skills to improve profitability.

Forty Years of Distance Education: Challenges and implications at the Open University of Sri Lanka

Commencing its activities in 1980, the Open University of Sri Lanka (OUSL) has expanded over the years embracing emerging technologies periodically, undergoing a series of technological adoptions gradually through Generations of Distance Education (GDE). The aim of this study is to assess the current status of OUSL, based on Taylor’s conceptual framework of GDE, identify the challenges faced during these technological transformations, and how those challenges were mitigated during its forty years of existence as a single-mode national open and distance learning university in Sri Lanka. This study employs a qualitative research design based on reflective practices of the researchers, narrative accounts of past decision makers, reflections of academics and administrators, and cross-referenced with documentary evidences. The findings show how the OUSL has advanced towards the fifth GDE, amidst challenges and finally propose mitigation strategies that would be useful for future technological interventions.

Enhancement in the World of Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence is a developing zone in the field of innovation and furthermore attempts to show that the eventual fate of AI gains ground so that machines would function according to a human and would likewise convey the action of the person. It is difficult to create a machine like individuals who can appear feelings or think like individuals in different conditions. Directly we have recognized that AI is the examination of how to form things which can accurately fill in as people do. A working framework that utilizes AI reasoning procedures has a computerized reasoning motor, and experience scientific and Statistical module, an adjustment module and a UI. The computerized reasoning motor processes an accomplished expository boundary from a front code and a back code. The experience of scientific and Statistical module records and changes the experience's systematic boundary. The alteration module changes the front code and the back code as per the consequence of the experience logical and Statistical module computation of the experience systematic boundary. The UI inputs information or showcases the consequence of the computation. In the man-made consciousness motor, the experience diagnostic boundary is then again added to either the front code or the back code to register another experience investigative boundary. Such a game plan, the working framework can consequently change the consequence of the computation as per the decision or past decisions of the client.

Land-use legacies of twentieth-century forestry in the UK: a perspective

ContextComplex interactions between societies and their environment have shaped landscapes across Europe over centuries. Therefore, taking a historical perspective can be important when designing new forestry policy and management activities.ObjectivesThis perspective aims to improve our appreciation of how a better historical understanding of landscapes can increase our understanding of current conditions and inform current and future policy and practice. I provide a perspective on land-use legacies and forest change, with a particular emphasis on landscapes, and using the example of forestry in the United Kingdom.MethodsFor this purpose, I undertook a comprehensive review of scholarly forestry literature and of relevant policy and legal documents in the UK, covering the last 100 years.ResultsThis brief review of the dynamics of forest landscapes in the UK over the last 100 years, shows that certain decisions, policies and management activities had major effects on the landscape, especially in terms of landscape patterns and species distribution, constraining it until today. Historic research investigated some of these legacies, leading to real change in policy and management, including a Broadleaved Policy, an Ancient Woodland Inventory, habitat restoration, habitat network and rewilding schemes. Research on past experiences of Dutch Elm disease in the UK and of similar outbreaks in other countries have guided responses to today’s tree pest/disease outbreaks and plant trade decisions.ConclusionA better appreciation of past decisions and activities, especially in forestry, helps to anticipate landscape legacy effects and potential cross-scale interactions of new policies and practices. It may also help to better justify and negotiate new decisions and long-term planning among multiple actors.

Discrimination and the Private Law in Canada: Reflections on Spence v. BMO Trust Co.

Discrimination has long been identified as detrimental to the basic functioning of multicultural countries like Canada. While governments have adopted constitutional law and passed human rights legislation to combat and control discrimination, these laws are inapplicable to a significant portion of Canadian law. Areas of private law, such as wills and trusts are therefore more vulnerable to use by individuals seeking to perpetuate discrimination.
 The main way that courts in Canada have dealt with this issue is through the use of the doctrine of public policy. As early as the 19th century, private law provisions viewed as restraining another’s freedom of religion or perpetuating discrimination on grounds such as race, ethnicity, or sexual orientation have been found contrary to public policy by Canadian courts and voided accordingly.
 While the uniquely Canadian jurisprudence in this area continues to evolve, until quite recently, its trajectory appeared to be one of expansion. However, the latest appellate level decision in this area,Spence v. BMO Trust Co., appears to have changed the course of this jurisprudence. In Spence, the Ontario Court of Appeal found that certain testamentary clauses, no matter how discriminatory in nature, can never be subject to a public policy review. 
 This article argues that while the result of Spence was likely correct on its particular facts, the reasoning of that decision goes too far in its attempt to limit the doctrine’s applicability with respect to discrimination in the private law. Parts of the decision in Spence ignore the key message of past decisions in this area concerning the danger of uncensored discrimination in Canadian society. 
 While reasonable people may disagree on the outcome of any given public policy inquiry, a point that should attract consensus is that the private law should never be an unexamined and impenetrable shelter for discrimination. However, Spence effectively creates an area of the private law immune to legal scrutiny by precluding the use of the common law doctrine that has been used to directly confront and censure discrimination in Canadian private law.

Do Pequeno ao Grande Líbano: os desafios contemporâneos da República Libanesa

Com os últimos eventos que ocorreram no Líbano, a partir de outubro de 2019, várias questões acerca da governabilidade do país são levantadas. Marcado por uma história de múltiplos conflitos internos, e de intervenções externas, a República Libanesa é o resultado de decisões pretéritas que foram fundamentais na determinação dos seus dilemas atuais. Este artigo apresenta um histórico da criação do Líbano, desde a formação do Emirado do Monte Líbano, passando pelo mandato francês, até a criação do "Grande Líbano". Sua sociedade multi-confessional, e as transformações ocorridas durante o mandato francês, acarretaram implicações profundas para a política e socieade libanesa. Ao final, discute-se os protestos que ocorrem no país desde o ano de 2019, e o futuro do sistema político sectário que persiste desde o Pacto Nacional de 1943.

The Real‐Time Cognitive Value of Eating Kale, Helping, and Doing Something Special: “Concurrent Experience Evaluation” (CEE), Its Drivers and Moderators, and Research Directions

After reviewing prior work regarding components of experience value, I present the concept of “Concurrent Experience Evaluation” (“CEE”), which expands the prior focus on experienced pain and pleasure in response to a stimulus/event. Specifically, the value of an experience is also determined by the concurrent (during‐the‐experience) cognitive assessment of the event relative to the person's associated goal progress/regression. CEE can account for during‐the‐experience and subsequent choices that people make. Examples of CEE include cognitive evaluations that enhance the experience value such as “good for me” (while eating kale), “I'm getting my money's worth” (while using a new camera), and “I'm having a cultural experience” (while visiting a museum), or detract from the experience such as “I shouldn't be doing this” (while smoking or overeating) and “should have chosen the other line” (while waiting at the supermarket checkout). Although prior research has examined hedonic experiences and their context (e.g., being with friends, commuting, colonoscopy) as well as what else the mind may process during an experience (e.g., wandering, thinking of past and future decisions), the concurrent value derived from the cognitive evaluation of the goal implications of an experience has not been identified as a separate experience value component. I examine and illustrate the CEE concept, its determinants, moderators, and implications, as well as its distinctive characteristics as compared with other value perspectives and during‐the‐experience mental processes. Integrating the CEE framework with prior work regarding experience evaluations, I outline a program for future CEE research.

Role of norms in variation in cancer centers\u2019 end-of-life quality: qualitative case study protocol

BackgroundA critical barrier to improving the quality of end-of-life (EOL) cancer care is our lack of understanding of the mechanisms underlying variation in EOL treatment intensity. This study aims to fill this gap by identifying 1) organizational and provider practice norms at major US cancer centers, and 2) how these norms influence provider decision making heuristics and patient expectations for EOL care, particularly for minority patients with advanced cancer.MethodsThis is a multi-center, qualitative case study at six National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) and National Cancer Institute (NCI) Comprehensive Cancer Centers. We will theoretically sample centers based upon National Quality Forum (NQF) endorsed EOL quality metrics and demographics to ensure heterogeneity in EOL intensity and region. A multidisciplinary team of clinician and non-clinician researchers will conduct direct observations, semi-structured interviews, and artifact collection. Participants will include: 1) cancer center and clinical service line administrators; 2) providers from medical, surgical, and radiation oncology; palliative or supportive care; intensive care; hospital medicine; and emergency medicine who see patients with cancer and have high clinical practice volume or high local influence (provider interviews and observations); and 3) adult patients with metastatic solid tumors and whom the provider would not be surprised if they died in the next 12 months and their caregivers (patient and caregiver interviews). Leadership interviews will probe about EOL institutional norms and organization. We will observe inpatient and outpatient care for two weeks. Provider interviews will use vignettes to probe explicit and implicit motivations for treatment choices. Semi-structured interviews with patients near EOL, or their family members and caregivers will explore past, current, and future decisions related to their cancer care. We will import transcribed field notes and interviews into Dedoose software for qualitative data management and analysis, and we will develop and apply a deductive and inductive codebook to the data.DiscussionThis study aims to improve our understanding of organizational and provider practice norms pertinent to EOL care in U.S. cancer centers. This research will ultimately be used to inform a provider-oriented intervention to improve EOL care for racial and ethnic minority patients with advanced cancer.Trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov; NCT03780816; December 19, 2018.

Corporate Default Predictions Using Machine Learning: Literature Review

Corporate default predictions play an essential role in each sector of the economy, as highlighted by the global financial crisis and the increase in credit risk. This study reviews the corporate default prediction literature from the perspectives of financial engineering and machine learning. We define three generations of statistical models: discriminant analyses, binary response models, and hazard models. In addition, we introduce three representative machine learning methodologies: support vector machines, decision trees, and artificial neural network algorithms. For both the statistical models and machine learning methodologies, we identify the key studies used in corporate default prediction. By comparing these methods with findings from the interdisciplinary literature, our review suggests some new tasks in the field of machine learning for predicting corporate defaults. First, a corporate default prediction model should be a multi-period model in which future outcomes are affected by past decisions. Second, the stock price and the corporate value determined by the stock market are important factors to use in default predictions. Finally, a corporate default prediction model should be able to suggest the cause of default.

A k-Hop Collaborate Game Model: Adaptive Strategy to Maximize Total Revenue

In Online Social Networks (OSNs), interpersonal communication and information sharing are happening all the time, and it is real-time. When a user initiates an activity in OSNs, immediately, he/she will have a certain influence in his/her friendship circle naturally, some users in the initiator's friendship circle will be attracted to participate in this activity. Based on such a fact, we design a k-hop Collaborate Game Model, which means that an activity initiated by a user can only influence those users whose distance are within k-hop from this initiator in OSNs. Besides, we introduce the problem of Revenue Maximization under k-hop Collaborate Game (RMKCG), which identifies a limited number of initiators in order to obtain revenue as much as possible. Collaborate Game Model describes in detail how to quantify revenue and the logic behind it. We do not know how many followers would be generated from an activity in advance, thus, we need to adopt an adaptive strategy, where the decision who is the next potential initiator depends on the results of past decisions. Adaptive RMKCG problem can be considered as a new stochastic optimization problem, and we prove it is NP-hard, adaptive monotone, but not adaptive submodular. But in some special cases, it is adaptive submodular and an adaptive greedy strategy can obtain a $(1-1/e)$-approximation by adaptive submodularity theory. Due to the complexity of our model, it is hard to compute the marginal gain for each candidate user, then, we propose a convenient and efficient computational method. The effectiveness and correctness of our algorithms are validated by heavy simulation on real-world social networks eventually.

Firms of Endearment: Organizational Imprinting in Business Ecosystems

Business ecosystems have been advanced as an analytical lens for studying multilateral arrangements of firms that span industries and in which the boundaries between competition and collaboration are unclear. A key construct in the ecosystem literature is the complementor. These are firms that, while not formally connected to a focal firm, provide services that are necessary for the focal firm’s value to be realized by consumers. While the literature has emphasized the tensions faced by a focal firm as it attempts to align the efforts of its complementors to its value proposition, however, these studies have tended to take a static view of this phenomenon: they haven’t considered how a focal firm’s past decisions of which complementor firms to engage impact their ability to engage with successive complementors in the future. Moreover, the literature on ecosystems has viewed complementors as fungible. As a result, we still lack an understanding of how a focal firm’s choices of complementors over time impact the evolution of an ecosystem. This paper contributes to the ecosystems literature by building theory that foregrounds the role of complementors in the development of business ecosystems and by responding to calls for an inter-temporal perspective on ecosystem evolution.

After the Wildfires: The Processes of Social Learning of Forest Owners’ Associations in Central Catalonia, Spain

Over the last few decades, according to the Forest Fire Prevention Services of the Catalan Government, a small number of fires (less than 1%) have been responsible for the destruction of more than three quarters of the burnt forest area in Catalonia. However, while these wildfires have transformed many components of the landscape, including its vegetation and soils, they offer landowners the opportunity to learn from past decisions. This article aims to analyze the responses of forest owners in Central Catalonia after the great forest fires of the 1980s and 1990s, including the way in which their objectives and strategies are defined and their actions implemented. By conducting interviews with the members of forest owners’ associations and by means of participant observation at association meetings, we seek to examine the processes of social learning experienced by this collective and to identify the mechanisms used in their efforts to create socio-ecological structures that are less vulnerable to fire. Associationism is unusual in the world of Catalan forest ownership, despite the great number of private forest areas. In our results, however, associationism emerges as a strategy for cooperation, a recognition of the need to link ecological and social structures in the territory, and one which we define as a form of ‘socio-ecological resistance’. Our study highlights that the goals and actions of forest owners’ associations have both an instrumental and emotional component, so that reason, emotion and action have come to form the three vertices of socio-ecological resistance to fire.

Whither the Principle of Self-determination in the Post-colonial Era? Building the Case for a Policy-oriented Approach

Abstract It is no secret that, since the end of decolonization, the principle of self-determination of peoples has been going through a veritable identity crisis. On the one hand, inconsistencies and double-standards are so commonplace in international practice as to justify the doubt that the law of self-determination is, in fact, power politics in disguise. On the other hand, a significant portion of the international community maintains that the principle has exhausted its historical function and applies only to a very limited number of cases (e.g. Palestine and Western Sahara). Yet self-determination of peoples is still well entrenched in international legal life. Against this background, international lawyers have been called upon to clarify how the customary principle on self-determination has changed in order to meet the challenges posed by the new global order. So far, however, the various attempts to overcome the colonial paradigm have not led to satisfactory results, being doomed to capitulate in the face of the fact that international practice in this field is either too sparse or is inconsistent. The main reason for this difficulty lies in the tendency to conceive of the law of self-determination in a traditional, ‘static’ fashion, as a set of clear-cut rules whose content has to be distilled, ultimately, in the light of accumulated past decisions. I will argue, by contrast, that the principle should be looked at in its ‘dynamic’ aspect, viz. as a ceaseless process through which the international community provides an authoritative response to demands for self-determination. My working hypothesis, specifically, is that a valuable contribution to such an investigation may be offered by the policy-oriented jurisprudence developed by the so-called ‘New Haven School’ of international law (NHS).

Parameter-Dependent Stochastic Optimal Control in Finite Discrete Time

We prove a general existence result in stochastic optimal control in discrete time, where controls, taking values in conditional metric spaces, depend on the current information and past decisions. The general form of the problem lies beyond the scope of standard techniques in stochastic control theory, the main novelty is a formalization in conditional metric space and the use of conditional analysis. We illustrate the existence result by several examples such as wealth-dependent utility maximization under risk constraints and utility maximization with a conditional dimension. We also provide a discussion as to how our methods compare to techniques based on random sets.

A century of National Forest Inventory in Norway \u2013 informing past, present, and future decisions

PastIn the early twentieth century, forestry was one of the most important sectors in Norway and an agitated discussion about the perceived decline of forest resources due to over-exploitation was ongoing. To base the discussion on facts, the young state of Norway established Landsskogtakseringen – the world’s first National Forest Inventory (NFI). Field work started in 1919 and was carried out by county. Trees were recorded on 10 m wide strips with 1–5 km interspaces. Site quality and land cover categories were recorded along each strip. Results for the first county were published in 1920, and by 1930 most forests below the coniferous tree line were inventoried. The 2nd to 5th inventories followed in the years 1937–1986. As of 1954, temporary sample plot clusters on a 3 km × 3 km grid were used as sampling units.PresentThe current NFI grid was implemented in the 6th NFI from 1986 to 1993, when permanent plots on a 3 km × 3 km grid were established below the coniferous tree line. As of the 7th inventory in 1994, the NFI is continuous, and 1/5 of the plots are measured annually. All trees with a diameter ≥ 5 cm are recorded on circular, 250 m2 plots. The NFI grid was expanded in 2005 to cover alpine regions with 3 km × 9 km and 9 km × 9 km grids. In 2012, the NFI grid within forest reserves was doubled along the cardinal directions. Clustered temporary plots are used periodically to facilitate county-level estimates. As of today, more than 120 variables are recorded in the NFI including bilberry cover, drainage status, deadwood, and forest health. Land-use changes are monitored and trees outside forests are recorded.FutureConsiderable research efforts towards the integration of remote sensing technologies enable the publication of the Norwegian Forest Resource Map since 2015, which is also used for small area estimation at the municipality level. On the analysis side, capacity and software for long term growth and yield prognosis are being developed. Furthermore, we foresee the inclusion of further variables for monitoring ecosystem services, and an increasing demand for mapped information. The relatively simple NFI design has proven to be a robust choice for satisfying steadily increasing information needs and concurrently providing consistent time series.

Assessing the success of integrated shoreline management in the Tordera Delta, northeastern Spain

Coastal catchment zones have undergone enormous changes during recent decades that have compromised their resilience. As a consequence of largely fragmented coastal management frameworks in the delta region of the Tordera River, the beach of S’Abanell, located on the northern arm of the delta, was in a critically degraded condition by the end of 2006. To remedy this situation, the beach was artificially nourished with sand during the period 2007–2009. After nourishment, we observed a general trend of recovery of the width of the beach, in its northern and central parts, and the reappearance of a pattern of seasonal oscillation. This tendency was not observed in its southern part, near the river mouth, where the situation is still critical today. Tracing the decadal evolution of the problem, we strengthen the knowledge base by compiling a history of past human decisions responsible for the present situation. We promoted stakeholder engagement and participation aimed at reducing human pressures affecting the evolution of the beach and the loss of ecosystem services. The overall idea was to take the initial steps needed to shift the management of this coastal region towards ecosystem-based management principles. This research demonstrates that, under certain conditions, artificial nourishment can contribute to restoring beach health on a decadal scale.

Quantifying Privacy Vulnerability to Socialbot Attacks: An Adaptive Non-Submodular Model

Privacy breaches are one of the biggest concerns on Online Social Networks (OSNs), especially with an introduction of automated attacks by socialbots, which can automatically extract victims' private content by exploiting social behavior to befriend them. The key insight of this attack is that by intelligently sending friend requests to a small subset of users, called the Critical Friending Set (CFS), such a bot can evade current defense mechanisms. We study the vulnerability of OSNs to socialbot attacks. Specifically, we introduce a new optimization problem, Min-Friending, which identifies a minimum CFS to friend in order to obtain at least Q benefit, which quantifies the amount of private information the bot obtains. The two main challenges of this problem are how to cope with incomplete knowledge of network topology and how to model users' responses to friend requests. In this paper, we show that Min-Friending is inapproximable within a factor of (1-o(1)) ln Q and present an adaptive approximation algorithm using adaptive stochastic optimization. The key feature of our solution lies in the adaptive method, where partial network topology is revealed after each successful friend request. Thus the decision of whom to send a friend request to next is made with the outcomes of past decisions taken into account. Traditional tools break down when attempting to place a bound on the performance of this technique with realistic user models. Therefore, we additionally introduce a novel curvature-based technique to construct an approximation ratio of ln Q for a model of user behavior learned from empirical measurements on Facebook.

Optimizing Manufacturing Supplier Selection and Order Allocation Processes using Fuzzy-QFD and Goal Programming: A Case Study in Indonesian Chemical Industry

This empirical study aims to implement an optimal methodology of a supplier selection process by integrating Fuzzy Quality Function Deployment (FQFD) and Goal Programming (GP). We apply the method to a company engaged in chemical industry, under multi item, multi supplier, and multi period environments. Problems encountered in this study are how to select suppliers and determine the optimal order allocation in accordance with company requirements. We use FQFD and GP to evaluate and allocate orders to suppliers. Four objectives are incorporated, including maximization of good products, on time delivery, and supplier scoring, along with minimization of material purchasing cost. We seek to find an optimal solution considering several constraints, such as material requirement and cost estimation, supplier and warehouse capacity, and safety stock. Our results provide insights that the most and the least important technical responses in chemical supplier selection are “supplier experience” and “response to customer order”, respectively. Whereas, the most important criteria are “product quality”, “product price”, and “delivery performance”, while the least important criteria are “return & repair service” and “documents”. The result also shows that the proposed method can achieve better solution compared to the past decision, in term of cost and supplier scoring.

Sunk Cost Effect: Being a Prisoner of Past Decisions

Şartlar degistiyse karari degistirmek gelecekteki faydayi arttirabilir. Ancak insanlar genellikle onceki yaptiklari yatirimlarinin, su andaki kararlarini etkilemelerine izin vermektedir. Bu durum “batik maliyet” olarak tanimlanmaktadir. Bu calismanin amaci, “batik maliyet” etkisini aciklamaktir. Arastirma kapsaminda, kamu/ozel sektorde yonetici olan 294 kisiye kolayda orneklem yoluyla ulasilmistir. Katilimcilara, kullanim/karar gelisimine iliskin varsayimsal 3 senaryo sorulmustur. Analizlerde ki-kare ve korelasyon analizlerinden yararlanilmistir. Senaryo 1’de katilimcilarin %64’u rasyonel bir karar vererek daha cok egleneceklerini dusundukleri Bodrum Tatilini tercih etmistir. Senaryo 2 ve 3’te katilimcilarin batik maliyet etkisinde kaldiklari gozlemlenmistir. Yuksek yatirim duzeyinde, katilimcilarin %91,8’i batik maliyet etkisi altinda kalarak projeyi devam ettirirken; dusuk yatirim duzeyinde katilimcilarin %46’si yatirimi durdurma karari vermistir. Ayrica batik maliyet etkisinin ortaya cikmasinda “kaynaklari israf etmis olmamak” niyetinin cok etkili oldugu tespit edilmistir.

Can Both the Economic Value and Energy Performance of Small- and Mid-Sized Buildings Be Satisfied? Development of a Design Expert System in the Context of Korea

To design a High-Performance Building (HPB), a performance goal should be clearly set from very early design phases, and then a decision path of what performance measures have been chosen in the past stages and shall be chosen in a later stage should be visible. In particular, for small- and mid-sized HPBs that are constructed with a smaller budget, if applicable performance measures are subjective to change, supplementary design costs can increase due to intermittent performance evaluations. To help this situation, we are developing a design expert system for small- and mid-sized buildings that pursues a balance between economic value and energy performance. The economy rule base suggests the most economic building volumetry and form in view of the site context, while the energy rule base suggests a series of energy-sensitive design variables and their options. Based on these rule bases, the expert system presents multiple design decision paths. The design decision support model of the inference engine helps stakeholders choose a preferred design path out of multiple paths, compare the paths, trace back the paths, and effectively revoke past decisions. An actual small retail and office construction project was chosen as a test case to compare the utility and robustness of the pilot system against the conventional design practice. In case of a rather risky design change scenario, the decision-making using the pilot expert system outperforms the conventional practice in terms of selecting designs with a good balance between economic value and energy performance. In addition, it was easier for users of the pilot system to forecast risks upon critical design changes and, in turn, to identify reasonable alternatives.