Past Crises Research Articles

Imagining and assessing future risks: A dynamic scenario‐based social vulnerability analysis framework for disaster planning and response

AbstractWhile social vulnerability assessments should play a crucial part in disaster management, there is a lack of assessment tools that retain sensitivity to the situation‐specific dynamics of vulnerabilities emerging in particular hazard scenarios. We developed a novel scenario‐based vulnerability assessment framework together with practitioners in crisis management and assessed the suitability of its components in three past crises and their scenario‐based derivations: a large‐scale power outage, the COVID‐19 pandemic, and a cyber‐attack. Rather than deterministically concluding about vulnerability based on prefixed factors, the framework guides relevant stakeholders to systematically think through categories of vulnerability pertinent to a scenario. We used a table‐top exercise, interviews, and focus groups to demonstrate how the framework broadens the crisis managers’ understanding of the scope of factors that may cause vulnerability, the related sources of information and enables to identify individuals burdened by certain vulnerability mixes. The new framework could be applied to different types of crises to enhance preparedness, demand‐driven relief and rescue during critical events.

Crisis Management: Educational Administration in Southern Punjab, Pakistan During the Covid-19 Pandemic

The main purpose of the present dissertation is to investigate the impact of covid-19 crisis on educational administration of Schools of Management in Southern Punjab, Pakistan. The study adds to the literature by investigating the impact of crisis on administration and crisis management strategies formulated by the institutions along with their impact on institutions’ survival and recovery. A qualitative study is conducted to achieve research objectives and answer all formulated questions. Data was collected via semi structured interview of 8 representatives of different designations from these educational institutions. Thematic technique was applied to examine the collected data and to produce results based on them. Analyses showed that the COVID-19 crisis negatively influenced the financial health, education quality, exam quality and public perception about the institutions. the study revealed that on time decisions and proactive approach from the concerned bodies were important outcomes of the pre-COVID crisis experience. This experience enabled the different bodies like IT department, board of advance studies, academic council and syndicate to make on time decisions. The study also concluded that past crisis experiences also helped this institution to develop their strategies for survival and recovery. Moreover, development of IT infrastructure (LMS, Online Portals), Forming Health Emergency Teams, COVID-19 Protocols and Faculty Vaccination Drive were the prominent steps taken for the institute’s survival and recovery in COVID-19 breakout. Results showed that these strategies helped the institutes to survive during the pandemic situation.

“They just won't listen”—The role of blame in narratives of past extreme weather events for anticipating future crisis

AbstractThe phase before an extreme weather event is crucial for the actual reaction to the impacts of such an event. In this phase, professionals in the field of civil protection and emergency management anticipate the intensity and impact of the event and use these expectations for action. We argue that anticipation is—beyond others—shaped by the organizations’ shared narratives of past crisis that resulted from extreme weather events. The findings focus on the frame of ‘blame’ in the narration and are based on two fields of study, road maintenance services and forest fire control. Qualitative group discussions and semistructured interviews show two very different views on blame depending on the organization: human factors and fate. This contrast can be traced back to the character of the weather events itself, but also with the self‐image of the organization and perceived external expectations. Depending on the narrative plot and threshold of the event, narratives can affect and alter practices of anticipation through narrations of renewal. Findings contribute to the understanding of organizational sensemaking through narratives of blame and consequences.

Asia’s financial interconnectedness: Evolution, implications, and insights from past crises

Past crisis episodes have illustrated the interplay of macroeconomic and financial conditions, including the presence of harmful macrofinancial feedback effects. Meanwhile, financial markets have become increasingly connected and economic and financial cycles more synchronized over time. Against the backdrop of past financial crises and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, we document and analyze trends in Asia’s financial interconnectedness over the past 3 decades, as well as its possible role in predicting financial crises. Employing a vector-autoregressive model and a panel probit regression, we find that financial interconnectedness increased across Asia and the Pacific, being particularly pronounced during past crises, including the present COVID-19 pandemic. We also find that increased interconnectedness is strongly and positively associated with the probability of crisis onset.

Ukraine and the Limits of China-Russia Friendship

China’s tacit support for Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine raises questions about the extent of the two countries’ official “Friendship.” Studying the history of this tie, including during past crises comparable to the current war in Ukraine, shows that Friendship has its limits, even as the current global moment encourages Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin to tout their bond.

Impact of Crisis Communication Strategies on People’s Attitudes toward Behavioral Guidelines Regarding COVID-19 and on Their Trust in Local Officials

Situational Crisis Communication Theory (SCCT) guides responses of corporations in crises. We tested how COVID-19 related crisis communication strategies affect trust in mayors and the acceptance of behavioral measures. A total of 561 participants (53% female) with a mean age of 50 years took part in an online experiment in which we systematically manipulated the mayor’s crisis communication strategy (deny crisis, diminish role in crisis, rebuild relationship after taking responsibility, bolster reputation, no response) and pre-crisis reputation (good past crisis management, bad past crisis management). Age, gender, and education served as covariates. We also tested the predictive power of personal concern regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as internal and external control convictions. In our preregistered analysis, we found that crisis communication strategies had no significant effect on participants’ ratings of behavioral measures, but they affected participants’ trust in the mayor. The deny crisis strategy resulted in the most unfavorable ratings, while the effects of the other strategies were moderated by the mayor’s pre-crisis reputation. Additional exploratory analyses showed that individual concern and trust were important predictors for the acceptance of behavioral measures. Even though we did not find any effects of communication strategies on behavioral measures, our results support SCCT’s utility in guiding communication strategy during a pandemic.

Practical volume approximation of high-dimensional convex bodies, applied to modeling portfolio dependencies and financial crises

We examine volume computation of general-dimensional polytopes and more general convex bodies, defined by the intersection of a simplex by a family of parallel hyperplanes, and another family of parallel hyperplanes or a family of concentric ellipsoids. Such convex bodies appear in modeling and predicting financial crises. The impact of crises on the economy (labor, income, etc.) makes its detection of prime interest for the public in general and for policy makers in particular. Certain features of dependencies in the markets clearly identify times of turmoil. We describe the relationship between asset characteristics by means of a copula; each characteristic is either a linear or quadratic form of the portfolio components, hence the copula can be estimated by computing volumes of convex bodies.We design and implement practical algorithms in the exact and approximate setting, and experimentally juxtapose them in order to study the trade-off of exactness and accuracy for speed. We also experimentally find an efficient parameter-tuning to achieve a sufficiently good estimation of the probability density of each copula. Our C++ software, based on Eigen and available on github, is shown to be very effective in up to 100 dimensions. Our results offer novel, effective means of computing portfolio dependencies and an indicator of financial crises, which is shown to correctly identify past crises.

Editorial

Editorial

Non-State Actors, Sub-Conventional Warfare, and India-Pakistan Nuclear Crisis Stability/Instability

In South Asia, India-Pakistan nuclear equation faces an intricate stability/instability paradox under the shadow of pervasive non-state actors. These actors are exploited by the bellicose nuclear rivals and used as proxies to bleed each other. The terrorist incidents may lead to a crisis that could escalate to the nuclear level. The ambitious belligerents—India and Pakistan—are embroiled in a vicious nuclear and conventional arms race. In conjunction, both lack any effective conflict resolution mechanism. Though, past strategic crises were managed beneath the panic of nuclear escalation and intervention by the international community. What if such a crisis develops again if a spectacular terrorist attack occurs, especially in mainland India. Indian decision-makers could castigate Pakistan by contemplating so-called surgical strikes under the impression that Pakistan has launched terrorists against India. This research paper critically analyzes how non-state actors and their use in sub-conventional warfare pose severe repercussions for nuclear deterrence stability in the absence of credible nuclear escalation control measures between India and Pakistan.

From systematic to systemic risk among G7 members: Do the stock or real estate markets matter?

Stock and housing market systematic risk may be a critical ingredient in the precipitation of systemic risk and hence a financial crisis. However, surprisingly few studies have so far explored the role of their contagion in triggering systemic risk. In this paper, time-varying connectedness is used to measure two-market systematic risks and time-varying Granger-causality is employed to monitor their causal interactions over time. Using quarterly G7 data over a long period covering 1970–2021, our results indicate that these systematic risks both are very volatile. Moreover, the dominant source of causality in the housing systematic risk implies that policies directed against the possibility of a housing bubble, for example, macroprudential toolkits, deserve special emphasis. Finally, given that the duration of the bilateral causality coincides with those in past crises, a dynamic probit model reveals that adopting an expansionary monetary policy with a huge reduction in interest rates may greatly increase the likelihood of a financial crisis.

Manifestation of Pessimism in Toni Morrison’s Select Works: Beloved, The Bluest Eye and Jazz

Toni Morrison’s works are elevated voice of Afro-American culture. As Afro-American has been bearing the burden of past history, slavery, race, gender and identity crisis issues in society, Toni Morrison herself forced to speak about them in their works. She herself is the part of historic past events like racism and identity crisis issues and that’s why her mind is more into the pain which they suffered. Toni Morrison is more focused on pessimism to show the reality and harsh truth of society, which reflected through her characters. No doubt Toni Morrison was loud to raise the problematic issues strongly but her appeal to wove her characters is tend to their circumstances, how they tortured and suffered through their whole life and it continues generation to generation. The clear aim of Morrison is to make aware today’s generation about Afro-American society its history about the injustice. So that they can be aware of their rights and able to fight for own.

Sudden shock and stock market network structure characteristics: A comparison of past crisis events

Studying the correlation structure of the stock market is crucial for systemic risk and portfolio optimization. We construct the price volatility network of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index components in China's stock market in the period 2007–2020. We select three representative major emergencies: the global financial crisis in 2008, the stock disaster in 2015, and the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. First, we find that when the stock market is impacted by the major events, the network shows a cluster phenomenon. The cluster effect of the financial crisis events is smallest, while that of the epidemic events occurs most rapidly. Second, the key nodes in the stock market network have greater risk transmission ability. The manufacturing plays a crucial role during the later stages of events, while the financial industry plays an important role during the epidemic's recovery period. Third, the network structure of the stock market has an indicator effect on the systemic risk contributions. Generally, the greater a stock's eigenvector centrality, the greater its systemic risk contribution, while its closeness centrality and clustering coefficient have opposite effects. The study has important enlightenment significance for market regulators to prevent risk diffusion and reduce portfolio risk for market participants.

IENCUIST: Development and application of an online psychological support tool during Covid-19 in Spain

The iENCUIST online tool was designed to reduce the psychological impact on both the confined population and on professionals who were at the forefront of the fight against the pandemic. In the first study (N= 2,362), the results are shown of the short test to perform personality profiles, made up of 34 items that show good psychometric properties. In the second study, the psychological profiles of confined individuals and professionals who had requested psychological help are presented (N= 815). The results indicate that confined women present higher scores in the variables of anxiety, anger, or disgust, placing this group at a greater risk for presenting psychological problems. As for professionals, those with more years of experience or who faced past crises have greater emotional stability, being a key factor in crisis management. After 6 weeks, the usefulness of the help offered by iENCUIST was evaluated and almost 80% of users indicated that they applied the recommendations offered by the tool, and that they helped them overcome the crisis.

The Multiplicity and Dynamics of Functional Crisis Memories in Crisis Communication: How Chinese Social Media Users Collectively Reconstructed SARS during COVID-19

ABSTRACT By incorporating the concept of collective memory into the field of crisis communication, this study examined crisis memories (i.e., SARS memories) that were collectively constructed on social media to help make sense of and respond to an unfolding crisis (i.e., COVID-19). From a content analysis of 4,673 Weibo posts, along with a repost network analysis of these posts, various functional crisis memories constructed by multiple users (multiplicity) and in different stages (dynamics) were identified. Our findings provide a new perspective on crisis communication and management by including crisis memories as an extended part of multivocal crisis communication. We suggest that memory narratives surrounding similar past crises can be utilized as important information and resources in crisis communication, especially during public health crises with high uncertainty and widespread effects. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings for crisis communication are discussed.

Structural core–periphery divergences in the EU: the case of responses to the COVID-19 crisis in 2020

ABSTRACT Pandemic responses within the EU deviate from past large-scale crisis management substituting the austerity paradigm with the normalisation of generous fiscal support. Yet, traditional north-south fault lines remain. The article addresses such a puzzle systematically assessing the core-periphery divide in pandemic management and outcomes across the EU 27. The analysis highlights gaps and geographical heterogeneities across the north-south divide, refuting their sole attribution to differences in the scale of the health crisis. Conversely, we show the contribution of containment measures to heterogeneous economic outcomes across the core and periphery, which extend to the Southern Member States marginally impacted by the outbreak. Findings confirm the pandemic furthered divergences across the Member States, highlighting how the absence of austerity alone is not sufficient to enact convergence within the EU27. Supporting structural imbalances and the need for transnational solidarity, the work contributes to the debate on core-periphery relations and the future of economic integration in the context of the Conference on the Future of Europe and foreseen reform of the Stability and Growth Pact.

The Influence of ASEAN Bond Market Integration in the Philippines’ Inflationary Pressures, Credit Expansions, and its Challenges

Bond markets have grown mature in many countries; however, the quality of financial integration varies across ASEAN economies. In the case of bond markets in the ASEAN +3, they experienced fast development; however, they are still less integrated. This study attempts to examine the ramifications of the ASEAN bond market integration and past crises to the Philippines’ inflation, credit, and growth and identify what impedes the development of the bond market for the period of 1992 to 2017. The study also aims to have a more in-depth analysis on preventing rises from happening and controlling both credit expansions and inflationary pressures. The Ordinary Least Square method (OLS) was used to examine the relationship of inflation, credit, bond market index, real interest rate, and integration to the Philippines’ growth. This led to this paper providing empirical insights that credit has a significant positive relationship with GDP growth; while, inflation has a significant negative relationship with GDP growth. However, the bond market index and integration showed insignificant negative results. This study provides possible reasons for the said conclusion and suggests ways not only to develop and grow the debt market in the Philippines but also to sustain long-run economic stability and growth to become on par with other ASEAN economies.

The biogeopolitics of cities: a critical enquiry across Jerusalem, Phnom Penh, Toronto

ABSTRACT Dwelling on a disciplinary threshold between urban planning and urban health, we take a comparative historical perspective on the urban development of three cities – Jerusalem, Phnom Penh and Toronto – highlighting how the evolution of their socio-spatial fabrics has been shaped by decisively biopolitical approaches. In line with current studies, we remark how the will to control the cities’ territories and populations has intertwined with policy concerns over urban health, and discourses on the need to isolate urban environments – artificially or rhetorically constructed as unhealthy. We propose, however, a shift toward the concept of urban biogeopolitics – noticing how the present-day Covid-19 outbreak has exposed the limits of biopolitical analyses, and of their dichotomic understanding of inner vs. outer forms of power and control. Biogeopolitics becomes therefore a powerful conceptual lens to explain how past crises and the current one have transcended the boundaries of what we are accustomed to understand as urban realm. How do biogeopolitical discourses and technologies become instrumental in the control of urban territories and their populations? How, in other words, are urban planning and urban health affected by regional and trans-local forces?

Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem Under Deadlines: An Application to Flooding Crisis

Facing the issue of flash floods and their important damage both to victims and infrastructures, involved authorities are interested in the study of the ways to answer at best this kind of crisis both in the long-term and emergency phase. The victim relief operations can be optimized to help rescue teams improve their management of the crisis situation. It is translated into the field by the development of a decision support tool for victim relief operations. The problem addressed is a Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) for the rescue vehicles. This article focuses on searching for efficient algorithms both in terms of execution time and intervention promptness to solve this VRPs. Data from a past crisis is used in this paper to evaluate the performances of the algorithms on problems as close to field experience as possible. Since rescue teams need to divide their forces into the different impacted sectors during flooding, algorithms to dispatch the resources (rescue team’s vehicles) between areas of intervention are studied.

Jaderné, radiologické a chemické zbraně, radiační a chemické havárie

In addition to the professional description of the history of development and use of nuclear, radiological weapons, chemical weapons and radiation and chemical accident cases, their destructive effects and principles of protection against them the e-book also contains original case studies on the consequences of nuclear accidents and incidents such as Jaslovské Bohunice (Slovakia, 1971), Tree Mile Island (USA, 1979), Chernobyl (Ukraine, 1986), Fukushima (Japan, 2011) and also oncerning hitherto known and potential scenarios of so-called CBRN terrorism using radioactive materials. In the field of nuclear and radiological weapons, the e-book also contains a historical excursion into past nuclear crises and the subsequent period of nuclear disarmament efforts in the world. In their e-book, the authors also address the secondary effects of depleted uranium munitions on both the population and soldiers at the sites of use of these munitions in the war in the states of the former ugoslavia in the 1990s. In the field of chemical weapons and chemical accidents, the e-book contains case studies of the misuse of neuroparalytic substances such as "Novičok" from the Russian military chemical project "Foliant".

Avoiding the humanitarian trap: The ‘Nobelization’ of food aid

Despite the significant role that hunger relief has played in global emergency response efforts throughout much of the last century—notably showcased with the 2015 naming of ‘Zero Hunger’ as the second Sustainable Development Goal, and more recently when the World Food Program was awarded the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize—significant hunger and malnutrition remain. Concerningly, past crises have demonstrated the potential for hunger relief efforts, particularly the provisioning of food aid, to undermine the ability of Global South countries and communities to recovery fully from shocks. This commentary takes a critical look at the role of food aid during extended crises and presents several thoughts for how aid agencies and Global North governments can continue to work toward Zero Hunger while simultaneously supporting Global South economies and cultures.