Paleoclimate Research Articles

Biogeographic climate sensitivity controls Earth system response to large igneous province carbon degassing.

Periods of large igneous province (LIP) magmatism have shaped Earth's biological and climatic history, causing major climatic shifts and biological reorganizations. The vegetation response to LIP-induced perturbations may affect the efficiency of the carbon-climate regulation system and the post-LIP climate evolution. Using an eco-evolutionary vegetation model, we demonstrate here that the vegetation's climate adaptation capacity, through biological evolution and geographic dispersal, is a major determinant of the severity and longevity of LIP-induced hyperthermals and can promote the emergence of a new climatic steady state. Proxy-based temperature reconstructions of the Permian-Triassic, Triassic-Jurassic, and Paleocene-Eocene hyperthermals match the modeled trajectories of bioclimatic disturbance and recovery. We conclude that biological vegetation dynamics shape the multimillion-year Earth system response to sudden carbon degassing and global warming episodes.

Whole genome resequencing reveals the evolutionary history and geographic isolation of the eastern Asian Hickory (Carya)

Societal Impact StatementUnraveling the genetic intricacies and evolutionary history of Asian Hickories through advanced genome sequencing gives valuable insights into their ecological adaptations. Understanding the impact of historical dynamics, climate fluctuations, and geographical barriers on Asian hickories not only contributes to scientific knowledge but also empowers policymakers with evidence‐based decisions and guides conservationists in their efforts to protect vulnerable species. The identification of potential habitats, especially for the endangered Carya kweichowensis, offers a promising avenue for targeted conservation efforts, aligning with global initiatives to preserve Earth's precious biodiversity, but also ensures the conservation of a vital genetic reservoir for nut‐bearing economic tree species.SummaryBiogeographic characteristics of disjunct distribution play a vital role in plant geography and the endangered mechanism. The whole genome resequencing provides an opportunity to study the genetic relationship, population diffusion, and floristic evolution of disjunctive‐distribution flora. Based on the SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) data generated by the whole genome deep resequencing of five EA (Eastern Asian) Carya species, we constructed the phylogenetic tree, genetic structure, and species distribution modeling to clarify the phylogenetic relationships and to predict the potential distribution area of EA Carya. Phylogenetic analysis of Carya revealed two distinct clades, separating EA Carya from NA (North America) Carya. C. kweichowensis, an endangered species, showed the lowest nucleotide diversity and the earliest divergence among studied EA Carya species. Species distribution modeling predicted suitable habitats for five EA Carya species, revealing the potential distribution of endangered C. kweichowensis. Importantly, minimal spatial overlap was observed among distribution regions of EA Carya species during different time periods. The uneven regional distribution of EA Carya is believed to be a consequence of Quaternary climate fluctuations, mountain barriers hindering species dispersal, and the limited cold tolerance of these trees. EA Carya highlights the significant role of climate and geological changes in their regional distribution and migration routes in Asia. Furthermore, the discovery of potential habitats offers a promising avenue for the conservation of C. kweichowensis.

Aridity record of the Arabian Peninsula for the last 200 kyr: Environmental magnetic evidence from the western equatorial Indian ocean

The evolution of aridity and its forcing mechanisms in the Arabian Peninsula are of significance for better understanding the environmental response of the region to global change and the impact of past climate shifts in human evolution. Paleoclimatic reconstructions for the region are predominantly derived from fragmentary terrestrial records. Here, we present a detailed environmental magnetic record for marine sediments from the western equatorial Indian Ocean, which constitute the terminal sink for eolian material originated from the Arabian Peninsula. The dominant magnetic minerals identified in the studied sediments include magnetite, maghemite, and hematite. The hard isothermal remanent magnetization (HIRM), widely used as a proxy for the abundances of the high coercivity mineral hematite, has been used to track variations in the concentration of Arabian dust over the last 200 kyr. Dust concentrations are lowest during interglacial periods of maximum boreal summer isolation, and coincide with intervals during which lake and fluvial systems developed and speleothems formed across most of southern and central Arabia. Our results point to a sharp decrease in the production of dust due to the expansion of vegetation cover up to 30°N during these periods. West African Monsoon appears to be the major source of increased rainfall across Arabia, while the Indian Summer monsoon likely contributed to enhance rainfall in the south and southeastern parts of the peninsula. Variation in the supply of Arabian dust were also driven by changes in high-latitude ice volume and atmospheric CO2, as indicated by highest dust concentration found during glacial periods. We interpret that the expansion of high-latitude ice sheets increased the global meridional temperature gradient, weakened the monsoon system, and resulted in a more southerly, colder and descending subtropical westerly jet, leading to the retreat of vegetation cover and the enhanced production of dust from the Arabian deserts. Our results highlight a link between the production of Arabian dust and orbital-scale climate variability, including both monsoon and northern hemisphere ice sheets dynamics.

Mechanisms for carbon stock driving and scenario modeling in typical mountainous watersheds of northeastern China.

Watershed ecosystems play a pivotal role in maintaining the global carbon cycle and reducing global warming by serving as vital carbon reservoirs for sustainable ecosystem management. In this study, we based on the "quantity-mechanism-scenario" frameworks, integrate the MCE-CA-Markov and InVEST models to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of carbon stocks in mid- to high-latitude alpine watersheds in China under historical and future climate scenarios. Additionally, the study employs the Geographic Detector model to explore the driving mechanisms influencing the carbon storage capacity of watershed ecosystems. The results showed that the carbon stock of the watershed increased by about 15.9 Tg from 1980 to 2020. Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC), Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) had the strongest explanatory power for carbon stocks. Under different climate scenarios, it was found that the SSP2-4.5 scenario had a significant rise in carbon stock from 2020 to 2050, roughly 24.1 Tg. This increase was primarily observed in the southeastern region of the watersheds, with forest and grassland effectively protected. Conversely, according to the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the carbon stock would decrease by about 50.53 Tg with the expansion of cultivated and construction land in the watershed's southwest part. Therefore, given the vulnerability of mid- to high-latitude mountain watersheds, global warming trends continue to pose a greater threat to carbon sequestration in watersheds. Our findings carry important implications for tackling potential ecological threats in mid- to high-latitude watersheds in the Northern Hemisphere and assisting policymakers in creating carbon sequestration plans, as well as for reducing climate change.

Can blue–green infrastructure counteract the effects of climate change on combined sewer overflows? Study of a swiss catchment

Abstract Combined sewer overflows (CSOs), the discharge of untreated sewage mixed with stormwater into surface waters, are expected to increase under climate change as a result of more extreme rainfall. Blue–green infrastructure (BGI), such as bioretention cells and porous pavements, can help to reduce the amount of stormwater entering combined sewer systems, thus reducing CSO discharge. However, our understanding of the potential for BGI to mitigate CSOs in a future climate is still lacking, as performance is typically evaluated for individual BGI elements with fixed implementation areas under historical climate conditions or limited future scenarios. In response, this study investigates the performance of 30 combinations of BGI elements and implementation rates to prevent increases in CSOs under a range of future climate scenarios in an urban catchment near Zurich, Switzerland. Median total annual rainfall, projected to increase by as much as 46%, could double the median annual CSO volume and increase median annual CSO frequency by up to 52%. Four BGI combinations that include bioretention cells show the most promise to prevent increases in CSO volume and frequency in a future climate; and given the diverse responses of BGI elements to distinct rainfall patterns, their combinations can enhance CSO discharge reduction across varying climate patterns. BGI is also likely to become more cost-effective under future climatic conditions as projected increases in total rainfall led to larger CSO volume reductions obtained through BGI. However, there is a trade-off between robustness to climate change and cost-effectiveness, since CSO volume reduction capacity scales with BGI implementation rate but cost-effectiveness declines. Our study illustrates the effectiveness of various BGI combinations to prevent increases in CSOs in a future climate, calling for a range of BGI elements and implementation areas to be considered for urban drainage adaptation.

Ichnological analysis of glacially-influenced sediments from the late Pleistocene to Holocene on the southeastern Canadian margin: Implications for palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography

The study of trace fossils in glacially-influenced margins provides valuable insights into the changes in palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography during glacial-interglacial periods, by providing biological and ecological data of the benthic environment. Here we present a comprehensive ichnofabric characterisation of a sediment core located on an inter-canyon ridge on the SW Grand Banks Slope off Newfoundland, covering the Late Pleistocene–Holocene period (0–∼23 ka). The core analysis reveals 12 ichnogenera and an escape structure, with Phymatoderma, Tasselia, and Zoophycos being prominent and relatively abundant at specific levels. By examining the distribution of bioturbation content and degree along the core, we establish a strong association between moderate to high bioturbation and cold periods. The Last Glacial Maximum exhibits the highest abundance and diversity of trace fossils, particularly the deposit-feeding Phymatoderma and the deposit-feeding/equilibrium trace Tasselia, indicating benthic adaptation to seasonal food input and relatively high sedimentation rates. Conversely, the warmer deglaciation period shows limited bioturbation. Salinity stress may account for the abrupt decline in bioturbation degree during the early deglaciation. Additionally, the occurrence of large-sized Zoophycos coincides with the Younger Dryas cold event during the last deglaciation. These findings highlight the complexity of palaeoceanographic conditions and benthic environments in proximal glacially-influenced sites compared to distal hemipelagic and pelagic sites. The interplay between down-slope processes (such as turbidity currents and hyperpycnal flows) and along-slope processes (like contour currents) plays a crucial role in shaping the unique sedimentological regime of depositional sites and subsequently affecting the ichnofauna in glacially-influenced margins.

Investigating the Role of Driving Variables on ETo Variability and “Evapotranspiration Paradox” Across the Indian Subcontinent Under Historic and Future Climate Change

Investigating the Role of Driving Variables on ETo Variability and “Evapotranspiration Paradox” Across the Indian Subcontinent Under Historic and Future Climate Change

‘Natural’ disasters, ignorance, and the mirage of Italian settler colonialism in late nineteenth-century Africa

ABSTRACT This article places the origins of Italian settler colonialism and its defeat in the battle of Adwa (1896) in the global perspective of the environmental history of European imperialism. It argues that the Italian project to turn the highlands of the Horn of Africa into a settler colony was an “imperial mirage”: the perception that the momentarily depopulated landscape of Ethiopia, produced by “natural” disasters that were in fact the social products of colonial warfare, would be available to Italian settlers in the future. This mirage was based on a domino effect of environmental catastrophes connecting climate history, animal disease, and the politics of European imperialism. Italians’ introduction of rinderpest in Eritrea in the wake of an El Niño-related drought triggered “the Great African Rinderpest Panzootic” and the “Great Ethiopian Famine”. The mixture of willful ignorance and wishful self-deception that fueled Italian projects explains Italy’s defeat in the battle of Adwa. Building on the methodology of environmental historians and scholars in Science and Technology Studies, this article shifts focus from the power of the state to the techno-politics of colonialism in its impact on natural environments and African communities through the lens of the cultural production of ignorance.

Identifying assets exposed to physical climate risk: A decision-support methodology

Climate events are increasingly affecting supply chains, leading to frequent and costly impacts. Managers lack a systematic approach to evaluate risks to individual facilities and employees. We propose a decision support methodology to help quantify the exposure of both to ten most common climate hazards. Using both historical and scenario-based climate data, the methodology distinguishes three dimensions for understanding climate risk: anomaly, extreme variability, and acceleration, applied to each peril from historical to projected data. This approach allows for the isolation of the components of climate change by peril, facilitating a better understanding of each component. Furthermore, it enables the development of adaptative responses tailored to each of the climate dimensions. A case study of a logistics group with more than 200 warehouses across 181 locations in eight European countries illustrates the approach, demonstrating its practicality and effectiveness. Our methodology offers firms, large and small, the opportunity to reinforce their resilience in the face of multiple physical risks. The metrics and scores presented in this paper can be extended to assess the growing issues of climate risks as they apply to occupational health and safety as well as natural resources management.

Ionospheric and meteorological response to total solar eclipses

Studies concerning solar eclipses have been rising significantly, yet, different circumstances during their occurrence provide uniqueness to every study. This paper studies the ionospheric and meteorological response to the total solar eclipses of August 21, 2017, March 20, 2015 and August 1, 2008. The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) was calculated from the signals beamed by the dual-frequency Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites and accessed from University NAVSTAR Consortium (UNAVCO) data archive. Similarly, the data of meteorological parameters were accessed from the historical climate archive of respective countries. The TEC drop of ∼2–7 TECU with a lag of ∼15–30 min is observed at varying latitudes which correspond with the findings of numerous past research. We analyzed the data of 15 stations under ∼100% obscuration to rule out the varying effects of different obscuration rates. Yet, given the turbulent nature of climate, we found varying changes at observed locations. A good relationship, however, was observed in 8 of the stations, where temperature drop ranged from 0.4 °C to 6.11 °C, and rise in relative humidity ranged from 0 to ∼77%. Wind speed has shown the most turbulent behavior. Their change was largely impacted by the eclipse on 5 of the stations, while the local factor was dominant on the others. In spite of this, the stations under observation showed distinct responses to the ionospheric change during the total solar eclipses, thus demonstrating the relation of meteorological parameters with eclipses.

Dipesh Chakrabarty, The Climate of History in a Planetary Age. Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press 2021

Dipesh Chakrabarty, The Climate of History in a Planetary Age. Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press 2021

Mars' North Polar Spiral Trough Migration Paths as Revealed Through 3D Radar Mapping

AbstractWe present observations and maps of Mars' northern polar spiral trough migration paths (TMPs) as revealed through the 3D SHARAD (Shallow Radar) data volume, identify patterns of TMP morphology, and provide interpretations and implications of these TMPs on past climate. This data set provides additional spatial context over traditional 2D data as it allows for radargrams to be taken perpendicular to each trough strike, which minimizes distortion of migration paths due to oblique viewing geometry. Here, we present an expanded survey of trough migration and analysis of surface troughs across the north polar layered deposits. We corroborate many previous observations of trough migration such as: the general poleward and stratigraphically upward migration from the TMP initiation point; the broadly similar depth of trough initiation across the cap; regional variability in TMP morphology; and the presence of buried promontories. Our results support the presence of two generations of troughs, though we cannot confirm that the oldest generation originated deeper than ∼600 m beneath the current surface, as previously reported. Two generations of troughs suggest that climate conditions favorable for initiation of trough migration have occurred at least twice. Trough initiation occurring only in the upper ∼600 m suggests that troughs are relatively recent features in the polar cap, developing after the formation of ∼half the current cap height. The mapped TMPs provide insight into the consistency of Mars' climate during the accumulation of the past few hundred meters of ice by recording the boundary of erosion and accumulation of ice at the troughs.

Projected global sulfur deposition with climate intervention

Even with immediate implementation of global policies to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions, the impacts of climate change will continue to worsen over the next decades. One potential response is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), where sulfur dioxide is released into the stratosphere to block incoming solar radiation. SAI does not reduce the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but it can slow warming and act as a stopgap measure to give the world more time to pursue effective carbon reduction strategies. While SAI is controversial, it remains a technically feasible proposition. It ought to be thoroughly modeled both to characterize global risks better and to further the scientific community’s understanding of stratospheric aerosol dynamics. SAI relies on sulfate aerosols which have a lifetime of several years in the stratosphere but will eventually be deposited back onto Earth’s surface. While sulfate is an important nutrient for many ecosystems, high concentrations can cause acidification, eutrophication, and biodiversity loss. We use model outputs from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) to track the impacts of sulfur deposition from SAI to various ecoregions through comparison with historical climate and future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our results demonstrate that dry sulfur deposition will continue to decline worldwide, regardless of scenario, from a high of 41 Tg S/yr in 1981 to under 20 Tg S/yr by 2100. Wet sulfur deposition, however, is much more uncertain and further work needs to be done in this area to harmonize model estimates. Under SAI, many ecoregions will experience notably different sulfur deposition regimes by the end of the century compared to historical trends. In some places, this will not be substantially different than the impacts of climate change under SSP2–4.5 or SSP5–8.5. However, in some ecoregions the model projections disagree dramatically on the magnitude of future trends in both emissions and deposition, with, for example, UKESM1–0-LL projecting that SO42- deposition in deciduous needleleaf forests under G6 Sulfur will reach 394 % of SSP2–4.5 deposition by the 2080 s while CESM2-WACCM projects that SO42- deposition will remain at 170 % of SSP2–4.5 deposition during that same time period. Our work emphasizes the lack of agreement between models and the importance of improving our understanding of SAI impacts for future climate decision-making.

Extreme Heat in the Caribbean: Impacts on Wellbeing and Buildings Energy Infrastructure—The 2023 Summer Case

Abstract The summer of 2023 in Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands witnessed an unprecedented surge in extreme heat, surpassing historical norms prompting the analysis of the broader implications for the Caribbean region. This study presents the initial analysis of this remarkable heatwave, the broader context of global climate change, and its potential impacts on people's well-being and energy demand. Historical and 2023 summer daily maximum heat index (HI) are calculated using local stations and regional gridded data. The results show that summer 2023 exhibited a significant departure from the historical climate. For about 70% of summer days, HI values above 100 °F were recorded. It was found that the extreme summer is part of a broader regional pattern. The summer of 2023 recorded higher sea surface temperatures with anomalies above 2.07 °C and the weakening of the Azores High resulting in reduced wind speed in the region. This diminished the cooling effect associated with cooler maritime air aiding the stagnation of air masses over the region. The analysis sets a threshold of HI of 103 °F to assess human exposure. A significant portion of the region's population, especially in urban areas, was exposed to HI above this threshold. Concurrently, the intense heat led to increased energy demands, with about a 25% increase in peak energy demand in buildings. Per capita consumption exceeded 200 kWh/month for cooling and human comfort and anomalies adding around 15 kWh/month. The study is a step forward in developing adaptive strategies to safeguard vulnerable communities due to global warming-induced extreme events.

A Framework for Constraining Ocean Mixing Rates and Overturning Circulation from Age Tracers

Abstract The age of seawater refers to the amount of time that has elapsed since that water encountered the surface. This age measures the ventilation rate of the ocean, and the spatial distribution of age can be influenced by multiple processes, such as overturning circulation, ocean mixing, and air–sea exchange. In this work, we aim to gain new quantitative insights about how the ocean’s age tracer distribution reflects the strength of the meridional overturning circulation and diapycnal diffusivity. We propose an integral constraint that relates the age tracer flow across an isopycnal surface to the geometry of the surface. With the integral constraint, a relationship between the globally averaged effective diapycnal diffusivity and the meridional overturning strength at an arbitrary density level can be inferred from the age tracer concentration near that level. The theory is tested in a set of idealized single-basin simulations. A key insight from this study is that the age difference between regions of upwelling and downwelling, rather than any single absolute age value, is the best indicator of overturning strength. The framework has also been adapted to estimate the strength of abyssal overturning circulation in the modern North Pacific, and we demonstrate that the age field provides an estimate of the circulation strength consistent with previous studies. This framework could potentially constrain ocean circulation and mixing rates from age-like realistic tracers (e.g., radiocarbon) in both past and present climates. Significance Statement The age of seawater—the local mean time since local water from different pathways was last at the surface—is a valuable indicator of ocean circulation and the transport time scale of heat and carbon. We introduce a novel constraint that relates total age flow across a density surface to its geometry, which provides new insights into constraining ocean circulation and mixing rates from age-like realistic tracers (e.g., radiocarbon).

Large Divergence of Projected High Latitude Vegetation Composition and Productivity Due To Functional Trait Uncertainty

AbstractVegetation distribution and composition are expected to change in northern high latitudes under rapid warming, which regulates ecosystem functions but remains challenging to predict. Vegetation change arises from the interplay of chronic climate trends such as warming and transient demographic processes of recruitment, growth, competition, and mortality. Most predictive models overlooked the role of demographic dynamics controlled by plant traits. Here, we simulate vegetation dynamics at the Kougarok Hillslope site in Alaska under historical and future climates using the E3SM Land Model coupled to the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Simulator (ELM‐FATES). To evaluate the roles of plant traits, we parameterize the model with 5,265 trait configurations representing diverse physiological and demographic strategies. Results show current modeled biomass, composition, and productivity are most sensitive to traits controlling photosynthetic capacity, carbon allocation, allometry, and phenology. Among all trait configurations, ∼5% reproduce in situ biomass and plant functional type (PFT) composition measured in 2016, that are indistinguishable from these two observed ecosystem states. Notably, these same trait configurations produce diverging biomass, composition, and productivity under future climate, where the uncertainty attributable to traits is twice the change attributable to climate change. The variation of projected productivity arises from emerging PFT composition under novel climate regimes, primarily explained by traits controlling cold‐induced mortality, recruitment, and allometry. Our findings highlight the importance and uncertainty of demographic dynamics and its interaction with climate change in shaping Arctic vegetation change. Improved model predictions will likely benefit from explicit consideration of vegetation demography and better constraints of critical traits.

The Influence of ENSO Diversity on Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity by impacting environmental conditions important for TC genesis. However, the influence of future climate change on the teleconnection between ENSO and Atlantic TCs is uncertain, as climate change is expected to impact both ENSO and the mean climate state. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on a tropical channel domain to simulate 5-member ensembles of Atlantic TC seasons in historical and future climates under different ENSO conditions. Experiments were forced with idealized sea surface temperature configurations based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble representing: a monthly varying climatology, eastern Pacific El Niño, central Pacific El Niño, and La Niña. The historical simulations produced fewer Atlantic TCs during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño, consistent with observations and other modeling studies. For each ENSO state, the future simulations produced a similar teleconnection with Atlantic TCs as in the historical simulations. Specifically, La Niña continues to enhance Atlantic TC activity, and El Niño continues to suppress Atlantic TCs, with greater suppression during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño. In addition, we found a decrease in the Atlantic TC frequency in the future relative to historical regardless of ENSO state, which was associated with a future increase in northern tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear and a future decrease in the zonal tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, corresponding to a more El Niño–like mean climate state. Our results indicate that ENSO will remain useful for seasonal Atlantic TC prediction in the future.

A Mechanism for Ice Layer Formation in Glacial Firn

AbstractThere is ample evidence for ice layers and lenses within glacial firn. The standard model for ice layer formation localizes the refreezing by perching of meltwater on pre‐existing discontinuities. Here we argue that even extreme melting events provide insufficient flux for this mechanism. Using a thermomechanical model we demonstrate a different mechanism of ice layer formation. After a melting event when the drying front catches up with the wetting front and arrests melt percolation, conductive heat loss freezes the remaining melt in place to form an ice layer. This model reproduces the depth of a new ice layer at the Dye‐2 site in Greenland. It provides a deeper insight into the interpretation of firn stratigraphy and past climate variability. It also improves the simulation of firn densification processes, a key source of uncertainty in assessing and attributing ice sheet mass balance based on satellite altimetry and gravimetry data.

Mid to Late-Holocene environmental dynamics recorded in Lake Pup Lagoon, East Antarctica: Insights from environmental magnetism and biogeochemical proxies

Paleoenvironmental archives in East Antarctica have revealed significant changes during the Holocene, marked by ice sheet retreat leading to the isolation of submarine basins. These basins offer valuable insights into past climate, glaciology, and oceanography shifts that impact sedimentary processes. In this study, environmental magnetism and biogeochemical proxies to investigate the Mid-to-Late-Holocene transitions in Pup Lagoon, a coastal isolation basin is presented. Our findings reveal distinct stratigraphic zones reflecting shifts from marine to lacustrine environments. The results reveal predominant mechanical weathering in the Stornes region, producing coarse-grained “soft” ferrimagnetic minerals. Notably, a period of warm oceanographic conditions between 6000 and 4722 cal. yr BP was characterized by mixed magnetic grain sizes and ultrafine superparamagnetic grains, indicating relatively oxic open waters in the basin. Subsequent shifts to reducing conditions coincide with persistent marine sea ice cover from 4722 to 2634 cal. yr BP, favoring the retention of coarse-grained ferrimagnets. Finer magnetic grain sizes between 2634 and 2185 cal. yr BP was attributed to the increased freshwater inputs associated with the Mid-Holocene Hypsithermal. Further, diagenetic changes under persistent sea ice cover between 2185 and 1970 cal. yr BP led to the selective dissolution of fine-grained ferrimagnets. Transitioning to freshwater isolated basin conditions between 1970 and 588 cal. yr BP, fine ferrimagnet precipitation indicate oxic to suboxic conditions alongside drier conditions. Biogenic productivity increased post-isolation, which was reflected in increased (Total Organic Carbon) TOC and (Total Nitrogen) TN percentages. Additionally, the presence of greigite in the isolated phase sediment indicates reducing conditions owing to organic matter decomposition. Notably, χfd% exhibits an inverse trend to sea ice concentration, potentially indicating anoxic-dysoxic conditions due to the presence of sea ice. These observations align with broader regional sea ice concentration changes, emphasizing the interconnected behavior of local and regional factors shaping Antarctic coastal environments.

Spatial and temporal dynamic zoning of crop water consumption under past and future climate and socioeconomic changes in China

The impacts of multiple changes in climatic and socioeconomic conditions within countries and regions are spatially heterogeneous, thus complicating stringent agricultural water management. Here we developed a framework for the dynamic identification of zone types and provided targeted agricultural water management strategies for each zone in response to global change. Considering China as an example, eight zones of typical major grain crop production prefectures were identified based on an analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics at four levels (agricultural, natural, social, and economic) according to the water footprint of major grain crop production at the prefecture-level for the past 15 years (2004–2018). We then presented the response of China's future zoning landscape for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under three representative scenarios by combining shared socioeconomic paths (SSPs) and representative concentration paths (RCPs). Results show that, by 2080, the national water consumption of the major grain crop production will increase under all scenarios. Half of the prefectures facing function shifts are likely to change from low to high water-consuming zones. Different zonal prefectures react differently under global changes, especially those that are prone to functional transformation, and should pay attention to their instability. Consideration of the water footprint in agricultural zoning is of great importance for national sustainable water resources management. This study proposes a more explicit approach to coping with global change, that is, to propose regionalized and prior agricultural water management strategies and measures for China and beyond.