Passenger Flow Forecast Research Articles

Passenger Flow Forecast of Urban Rail Transit Based on Support Vector Regression

This study analyses and compares several forecast methods of urban rail transit passenger flow, and indicates the necessity of forecasting short-term passenger flow. Support vector regression is a promising method for the forecast of passenger flow because it uses a risk function consisting of the empirical error and a regularized term which is based on the structural risk minimization principle. In this paper, the prediction model of urban rail transit passenger flow is constructed. Through the comparison with BP neural networks forecast methods, the experimental results show that applying this method in URT passenger flow forecasting is feasible and it provides a promising alternative to passenger flow prediction.

Application of Data Mining in the Forecasting of Railway Passenger Flow

This paper through studying the theory of data warehouse and data mining, applies these technologies to deal with the large number data in the Ticket Selling and Reserving System of Chinese Railway (TRS), uses the effective data mining to the passenger flow analysis, builds up the logical forecasting and analysis model. This paper firstly discusses the current situation and problems faced by forecasting of passenger flow, then applies the data warehouse technology to design the data mart of this subject. Next, samples and analyses this data which collecting in data mart adopting neural network method, builds data analysis model carrying out research and the experiment, finally puts forward a feasible forecast model for the passenger flow forecasting.

Short-Time Fluctuation Characteristic and Combined Forecasting of High-Speed Railway Passenger Flow Based on EEMD

Take Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway for example. By adopting the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) attempt to analyze mode from the perspective of volatility of high speed railway passenger flow fluctuation signal. Constructed the ensemble empirical mode decomposition-gray support vector machine (EEMD-GSVM) short-term forecasting model which fuse the gray generation and support vector machine with the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). Finally, by the accuracy of predicted results, explains the EEMD-GSVM model has the better adaptability.

The Research of Railway Passenger Flow Prediction Model Based on BP Neural Network

Based on analyzing the principle of BP neural network and time sequence characteristics of railway passenger flow, the forecast model of railway short-term passenger flow based on BP neural network was established. This paper mainly researches on fluctuation characteristics and short-time forecast of holiday passenger flow. Through analysis of passenger flow and then be used in passenger flow forecasting in order to guide the transport organization program especially the train plan of extra passenger train. And the result shows the forecast model based on BP neural network has a good effect on railway passenger flow prediction.

Passengers Flow Forecasting Model of Urban Rail Transit Based on the Macro-Factors

In China, many cities are planning urban rail transit system, but a comprehensive passenger flow estimation model is still lacking. The total passenger flow of urban rail transit in a city depends on many factors, such as urban population, total length of rail lines, gross domestic production of the city etc. To estimate the total passenger flow of urban rail transit, a linear regression model with multiple variables is established in the paper, based on the real data collected in many cities with urban rail transit operating. The comparison of the estimated flow and the real flow in many cities shows that the model is very accurate in passenger flow forecasting.

NL Model on Traffic Mode Split among High-Density Town Cluster

With urbanization process acceleration in China, traffic travel among cities becomes increasing, and traffic mode split is the key link of traffic passenger flow forecast among cities. In this paper, the concept of high-density town cluster was proposed to analyze the characteristics of development, population composition, and traffic facilities among high-density town cluster. Based on applicability analysis of aggregate model and disaggregate model, survey content of revealed preference (RP) and stared preference (SP), and traffic mode hierarchical division according to average speed, then NL disaggregate model among high-density town cluster was constructed. NL model which was parameter calibrated and validated with DongGuan citizen travel investigation data in 2009 was used to analyze the trend of traffic mode split. The result shows that high-density town cluster, such as DongGuan, are establishing a three-dimensional travel mode set, including high-speed rail, intercity rail, suburban rail, urban rail transit, intercity express bus, car, taxi, and common public transport. With the network of multi-mode rail transit further improving, ratio on choosing the traffic mode of multi-mode rail transit, such as high-speed rail, intercity rail, suburban rail, urban rail transit, increases dramatically.

Statistical Estimates for Modified Gravitation Model by Aggregated Data

A nonlinear regression model for forecasting of passenger flow between various spatial points (towns) is described. Unknown parameters are estimated using aggregated data when the information about a number of the departed passengers from each town is available only. For estimation, the least squares and maximum likelihood methods are used. Numerical examples are performed to illustrate the proposed approaches.

Forecasting the short-term metro passenger flow with empirical mode decomposition and neural networks

Short-term passenger flow forecasting is a vital component of transportation systems. The forecasting results can be applied to support transportation system management such as operation planning, and station passenger crowd regulation planning. In this paper, a hybrid EMD–BPN forecasting approach which combines empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and back-propagation neural networks (BPN) is developed to predict the short-term passenger flow in metro systems. There are three stages in the EMD–BPN forecasting approach. The first stage (EMD Stage) decomposes the short-term passenger flow series data into a number of intrinsic mode function (IMF) components. The second stage (Component Identification Stage) identifies the meaningful IMFs as inputs for BPN. The third stage (BPN Stage) applies BPN to perform the passenger flow forecasting. The historical passenger flow data, the extracted EMD components and temporal factors (i.e., the day of the week, the time period of the day, and weekday or weekend) are taken as inputs in the third stage. The experimental results indicate that the proposed hybrid EMD–BPN approach performs well and stably in forecasting the short-term metro passenger flow.