Passenger Cars In China Research Articles

Energy mix-driven dynamic life cycle assessment on greenhouse gas emissions of passenger cars in China

Amidst increasingly stringent global emission regulations, China's energy mix is undergoing profound transformation. To more precisely evaluate vehicle emissions, this study aimed to explore the dynamic responses on life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of passenger cars in China, considering the change of energy mix. An energy mix-driven life cycle assessment model was established and inventory data were obtained. The electricity generation mix data in China were predicted, and the results in life cycle GHG emissions of internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) from 2020 to 2050 were analyzed. Uncertainty, sensitivity and breakeven distance analyses were performed to explore the impact of various parameters. The results showed that the average emission factor of electricity generation mix is projected to decrease by 87.11% in 2050 with the cleanliness of energy mix. The life cycle GHG emissions of ICEV, BEV and PHEV produced in 2020 were 37.16, 28.04 and 29.84 tCO2eq respectively. Based on the linear models, it is expected that the emissions from these vehicles produced in 2050 would be reduced by 11.48%, 61.31%, and 53.39% respectively compared to their levels in 2020. Policies and measures for emission reduction were proposed based on the sensitive parameters and calculation results.

Identifying the decarbonization paths for new energy passenger cars in China

This study establishes the marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) of China’s new energy passenger car technologies (PCT) and identifies the technological decarbonization path for new energy passenger cars. The results show that the decarbonization of China’s new energy passenger car market is mainly led by two models, conventional hybrid passenger cars and blade electric passenger cars. At the same time, this study identifies six key technologies for decarbonization of new energy passenger cars. In the future development of the passenger car market, these six technologies should be used as the focus of decarbonization, bringing their strengths into play while compensating for the shortcomings of other technologies. At the same time, the baseline scenario should be the main focus, supplemented by other scenarios.

Corporate average fuel consumption evaluation and non-compliance disaggregation based on real-world data

A widening gap between official and real-world fuel consumption of passenger cars has been reported worldwide. However, previous policy evaluation has not adequately incorporated real-world performance. To comprehensively evaluate China’s Corporate Average Fuel Consumption (CAFC) policy, we update the fuel consumption gap with millions of consumer-reported records and calculate CAFC and evaluate the national average fuel consumption (NAFC) under four scenarios. The results show that China’s fuel consumption gap has reached 37%. The average CAFC decreases from 6.72 L/100 km in 2016 to 5.91 L/100 km in 2020, far slower than the rated performance. The real-world NAFC non-compliance is disaggregated into on-road discrepancy (2.5 L/100 km), new-energy discounts (0.4 L/100 km), lightweight impacts (0.3 L/100 km), and additional technology improvements (0.8 L/100 km). This study can improve the state-of-the-art understanding of the real-world fuel consumption of passenger cars in China, thus calling for a more real-world-featured regulation system.

Characterizing in-cabin air quality and vehicular air filtering performance for passenger cars in China

The rapidly growing vehicle population has become a crucial contributor to severe air-pollution and public health issues. In urban areas, vehicles have become one of the important sources of air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). In particular, the on-road concentrations of traffic-related air pollutants (TRAPs) are typically many times higher than normal ambient concentrations, potentially leading to high in-vehicle exposure levels to TRAPs. Limited studies have focused on the variability in in-vehicle concentrations of TRAPs and linked the pollution level to both out-cabin conditions and the in-cabin filtration performance during real-world travels. Therefore, this study measured on-roadway, in-cabin concentrations of PM2.5 and carbon dioxide (CO2) by using well-calibrated low-cost sensors during various conditions. Our results indicate that, although in-cabin PM2.5 concentrations are correlated to out-cabin PM2.5 concentration levels, the control efficiency would be affected by the ventilation mode and the adoption of vehicular filtration device. The PM2.5 reduction efficiencies could achieve 45% and 77% for in-use and new filters made by vehicle manufacturers respectively, with the average CO2 concentration remained at a safe level (<800 ppm) under the in-vehicle outside air ventilation. The application of a high-efficiency cabin air (HECA) filter can further enhance the PM2.5 filtration efficiency up to 85–96%, indicating the significance of advanced cabin air filtration technology for improving in-cabin air quality and reducing health risk of Chinese drivers.

Characterizing In-Cabin Air Quality and Vehicular Air Filtering Performance for Passenger Cars in China

Characterizing In-Cabin Air Quality and Vehicular Air Filtering Performance for Passenger Cars in China

Trade-offs between vehicle fuel economy and performance: Evidence from heterogeneous firms in China

Technological progress is an effective way to improve fuel economy in vehicles. Using a rich model-level dataset of all new passenger cars in China from 2010 to 2019, this paper estimates progress in fuel economy after controlling for increases in vehicle performance. Considering the unique structure of the automobile industry in China, we explore differences between indigenous vehicles (IV), joint venture vehicles (JV), and foreign vehicles (FV). The results show that a 10% increase in curb weight is correlated with a 6.4% increase in fuel consumption. When holding other vehicle characteristics constant, technological progress can reduce fuel consumption by 3.5% annually. Technological progress is larger for JV (3.9%) than FV (3.3%) and IV (3.1%). In particular, IV produced by firms that are also engaged in JV showed slower technological progress (2.6%) than other IV counterparts (3.9%). A majority of JV would be able to meet future fuel consumption standards on individual vehicles at the average historical rate of technological progress. In contrast, IV will face a greater challenge, especially for IV produced by firms with JV. Although weight reduction can reduce fuel consumption, it plays a limited role in regulatory compliance due to the weight-based regulations.

Evaluation and analysis of comprehensive performance of a brake pedal based on an improved analytic hierarchy process

Due to the considerable increase in car parc and the remarkable improvement in vehicle properties and cost performance, higher requirements are being placed on driving comfort. With regard to the braking system, the enhancement of the brake pedal feel is one of the ways to improve the comfort, and affecting factors include spatial layout, dynamic characteristics, and the characteristics matching with the vehicle motion, so a comprehensive evaluation of a brake pedal is highly essential. This paper, by taking passenger cars in China as the research object, established a comprehensive evaluation system for pedals based on the improved analytic hierarchy process. The index weight in each index level was determined through the G1 method, and an experimental design was conducted on individual indices on the lowest level. The relationship parameters between the indices were measured through the test and comprehensive scores of each automobile pedal were obtained in combination with the evaluation method designed. Based on comprehensive scores, a typical analysis on 16 test vehicles was carried out, followed by a comparison of different index levels. Through result analysis, the direction for pedal improvement was proposed, and the feasibility of the method with the case is verified, which provides a scientific basis and a reference for vehicle pedal development, the calibration in position layout, and the pedal design.

Material metabolism and carbon emission reduction strategies of passenger cars in China’s mainland

Material metabolism and carbon emission reduction strategies of passenger cars in China’s mainland

End-of-life passenger vehicles recycling decision system in China based on dynamic material flow analysis and life cycle assessment

China’s automobile industry is developing rapidly, but the recycling rate of end-of-life vehicles has been low. In 2018, the recovery rate of end-of-life passenger vehicles was less than 18% of the scrapped amount. Dynamic material flow analysis can predict the amount of end-of-life passenger cars in China in the future, and analyze the flow of materials in recycling system. Life cycle assessment can be used to quantify greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, this paper integrates these two methods into the model construction of recycling decision system. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis of the important factors affecting the efficiency of the recovery system is carried out. Finally, the main recovery indexes of the system are predicted under three scenarios: low-speed, medium speed and high-speed development, which are set based on scrap volume, standard recovery rate, proportion of assembly into remanufacturing and carbon tax price. The research results show that in 2018, 656.9 kg/vehicle of iron, 150.2 kg/vehicle of aluminum and 7.9 kg/vehicle of copper are recovered from end-of-life passenger car in China, and the carbon emission during the recovery process is 651.1 kg of CO2eq/vehicle, with a total emission reduction of 3816.1 kgCO2eq/vehicle compared with the original production, and the economic benefit is about 5055.5 yuan/vehicle. The scenario prediction results show that by 2050, from the low-speed development scenario to the high-speed development scenario, the total amount of iron, aluminum and copper recovered rise from 3.96 million tons, 915 thousand tons and 46 thousand tons to 697 thousand tons, 1.61 million tons and 80 thousand tons respectively throughout the year. The carbon emission in the recovery process rise from 4.98 thousand tons to 9.32 million tons. Compared with the original production, the carbon emission reduction increases from 2.21 million tons to 38.3 million tons, the economic benefit increases from 58.9 billion yuan to 118.8 billion yuan, and the comprehensive benefit increases from 57 billion yuan to 111.6 billion yuan.

Real-road energy consumption characteristics of electric passenger car in China: a case study in Shenzhen

As the increasing complains of the electric passenger car owners about the lower pure electric mileage under real-road driving condition than the regulation standard test result, the annual real-road energy consumption characteristics of 20 MPV electric passenger cars in Chinese city, Shenzhen, have been investigated to analyse the effect factors causing the energy consumption difference between these two results. Results showed that the annual variations of real-road energy consumption rate of each month were agreed with the variations of air conditioning using duration. The highest and lowest energy consumption rates were obtained in July and March, which increased the energy consumption rate of whole vehicle about 24% in the maximum extent. The difference of the energy consumption between real-road and regulation standard test was attributed to the effects of air conditioning using and driving condition (driving velocity and acceleration distribution), which have been qualified in this paper.

The Impact of Purchase Restriction Policy on Car Ownership in China’s Four Major Cities

With the improvement of living standards, the demand for residents’ travel has grown rapidly. At present, China has surpassed the U.S. to become the world’s largest vehicle sales country. By the end of 2018, there had been over 200 million private passenger cars in China. Meanwhile, the increase in the number of cars has also brought a series of other problems: energy consumption, air pollution, traffic congestion, etc. Therefore, some first-tier cities have successively introduced motor vehicle purchase restriction policies to constrain the surge of local private cars. However, existing researches have overemphasized the factors that promote the development of China’s motor vehicle market and ignored the importance of the purchase restriction policies. In this study, policies in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are introduced, and their impacts on local private passenger car stock are analyzed. The results indicate that purchase restriction policies kept the car ownership per thousand people in these cities in a relatively stable level with growing economy. Therefore, as the number of cities with restriction policies increases, it is necessary to take those policies into consideration in the forecast of possession. Meanwhile, the local governments should still think over policy contents from more aspects, like number of issued plates every year, special measures for new energy vehicles, and travel demand of residents.

Analysis of PHEV CO2 Emission Based on China's Grid Structure and Travelling Patterns in Mega Cities

Spatial-domain changes in the proportion of thermal power in the power grids of China and the duality of PHEV-driven energy have increased the complexity of research on the CO2 emissions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). 130000 km of driving data from 50 PHEV vehicles operating in Shanghai is studied to derive methods to evaluate the carbon dioxide emission of PHEV vehicles. The electric drive distance ratio of the PHEV and its influencing factors are analyzed. The effects of the electric range, charging frequency, and power grid composition on the carbon emission intensity of PHEV are analyzed, and the effect of the level of progress for PHEV in 2020 on CO2 emission reductions is forecast. The results of the study show that the daily vehicle kilometers travelled by PHEV passenger cars in China's first-tier cities are mainly concentrated within a range of 50 km, accounting for 70% of total trips. Under the national grid structure in 2016, PHEVs with a driving range of more than 50 km emit at least 15% less carbon dioxide than conventional vehicles. In areas with a high proportion of renewable energy grid structure, PHEV carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced to below 100.0 g·km-1, which is more than 28% lower than that achieved using the national grid structure. Based on the national grid structure and technical level in 2016, increasing the all-electric range (50-100 km) and the charging frequency (0.5 times·d-1 to 2 times·d-1) has no obvious effect on reducing CO2 emissions. The PHEV fuel economy and electricity consumption levels in 2020 could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 32% compared to those in 2016.

The evaluation methodology on carbon emissions of passenger cars based on travel characteristics

In recent years, with the rapid growth of economy, China’s urbanization and urban transport are undergoing a rapid development, resulting in a large amount of travels. But at the same time, due to “blowout” growth of passenger cars, a series of serious social problems occurred, such as traffic congestion and fast increase in Carbon Dioxide emissions, which posed a great challenge to the sustainable development of urban transport in China. Studies on the evaluation methodology of Carbon Dioxide emissions based on travel characteristics are to be conducted to effectively improve the evaluation accuracy of emission quantification of passenger cars, and find out the place and source of Carbon Dioxide emissions, so as to further promote accurate emission reduction. This paper first analyzes the main characteristics of Carbon Dioxide emissions of passenger cars in China, optimizes the evaluation methodology of Carbon Dioxide emissions of passenger cars from the perspectives of scoping, road grading and classification evaluation, and conducts a test on Carbon Dioxide emission factors in some cities. The paper also takes Harbin city as an example to evaluate its Carbon Dioxide emissions of passenger cars from 2014 to 2016, so as to testify the feasibility of the methodology.

Greenhouse gas emissions embedded in US-China fuel ethanol trade: A comparative well-to-wheel estimate

Abstract The US-China biofuel trade has experienced exponential growth in the past few years. This study conducts life cycle analysis on the US-China fuel ethanol trade and compares the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ethanol produced in China with ethanol imported from the U.S. We conduct lifecycle analysis for five China ethanol production pathways – corn, cassava, sweet sorghum, corn stover, and corncob, using the GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy use in Transportation) model. The well-to-pump (WTP) GHG emissions are estimated to be 54–234 gCO 2e /MJ. The WTP emissions of ethanol imported from the U.S. are lower than starch- and sugar-based ethanol in China. By building vehicle pathways for passenger cars in China, we estimate the well-to-wheel emissions to be 184–253 gCO 2e /km for spark-ignition (SI) engine vehicles. Overall, importing ethanol from the U.S. is estimated to reduce emissions by 34.21 gCO 2e /MJ on average, suggesting great potential of imported ethanol on curbing China's GHG emissions.

A German lawyer in the far east: Investing and doing business in China

Shortly after the end of the Cultural Revolution, some four decades ago, there were no passenger cars in China when Volkswagen AG started its negotiations inthis country. The country was poor and underdeveloped. Today, the GDP of China reached USD 17.6 billion compared to the US’ 17.4 billion USD. Car production in China is now more than 18 million cars per year, more than in the USA. Today, China is still a socialist country and its economic system is called ‘socialist market economy’ but there are about 50 million private companies, 400 million people are belonging to the middle class and there are about 800 super rich having more than 100 million USD on average. In this ‘sino-marxist’ country, there are even 130 multi billionaires in USD. No wonder that under these circumstances, joint ventures and wholly foreign-owned enterprises, especially also in the automotive industry, are welcome. Volkswagen started its negotiations with its Chinese partner, STAC (Shanghai Tractor and Automobile Investment Corporation), BoC (Bank of China) and CNAIC (China National Automotive Industry Corporation) in 1979. These negotiations ended in 1984 by setting up the ‘Shanghai-Volkswagen’ joint venture which started the production of the Santana in 1985. Some years later, in 1988, Volkswagen started the negotiations with FAW (First Automobile Work) in Changchun. These negotiations lasted much shorter and the second VW joint venture, ‘FAWVW’, started with the production of Jetta and Audi 100, 100, 000 cars per year in 1991.In 2004, the ‘Volkswagen Group China’ (VGC), a wholly VW-owned holding company was set up in Beijing in order to coordinate the VWparticipations, the sales and marketing of its joint ventures, the purchasing, personnel and governmental relations as well as finance. Today, VGC has, including its 16 subsidiaries, 95,000 employees, has built 30 million cars at 30 Chinese production sites and sold them by 5,000 dealers (with 330,000 employees). In 2016, VGC has built about 4 million cars.

Modeling uncertainty in estimation of carbon dioxide abatement costs of energy-saving technologies for passenger cars in China

Estimation of carbon dioxide abatement cost is of the essence to promote energy-saving technologies (ESTs) in the passenger car sector, while the existence of various uncertainties of abatement cost may be major barriers for technology promotion. This study establishes the projected marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve of China's passenger car sector over the 2016–2030 period and conducts uncertainty modeling through Monte Carlo simulation. The impacts of uncertainties from oil price, electricity cost, energy-saving potential, incremental investment cost, and emission factor for electricity consumption on emission abatement costs of ESTs are analyzed separately and compared together. Results show that among the five uncertainties, oil price uncertainty has the largest impact on ESTs’ emission abatement cost, but the impact does not differ significantly among different technology bundles. Uncertainties in electricity cost and in electricity emission factor affect significantly the MACs of new-energy paths. Compared with the above two uncertainties, uncertainties in energy-saving potential and in incremental investment cost have larger impacts on the MACs of traditional energy-saving paths. Among different vehicle types, the MACs of ESTs on small-displacement private cars are the least affected by various uncertainties.

Integrated assessment of energy efficiency technologies and CO2 abatement cost curves in China’s road passenger car sector

Road transport is one of the main sources of energy consumption and CO2 emissions. It is essential to conserve energy and reduce emissions by promoting energy efficiency technologies (EETs) in this sector. This study first identifies EETs for the passenger cars and then classifies them into various technology bundles. It then analyzes the CO2-reduction potentials and emissions abatement costs of 55 type-path, 246 type-path-technology, and 465 type-path-subtechnology bundles from micro-vehicular and macro-industrial perspectives during 2010–2030, based on which marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve for China’s road passenger car sector is established. Results show that the cumulative CO2-reduction potential of EETs on passenger cars in China during 2010–2030 is about 2698.8Mt, but only 4% is cost-effective. The EETs with low emissions abatement costs are mainly available in the spark ignition (SI), diesel, and hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) paths on the taxis and high-performance cars, and also in the transmission, vehicle body and SI technologies on the private cars, which could be promoted at present. The technologies with large emissions reduction potential are mainly available in the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and electric vehicle (EV) paths, which would be the main channels for reducing carbon emissions in the long run.

Policies on end-of-life passenger cars in China: dynamic modeling and cost-benefit analysis

The expansion of motor vehicle fleet in China during the past decade has produced a cascade of challenges, including dealing with end-of-life passenger cars. To date, these cars have not been effectively collected or recycled. Policies must be deliberately devised and reformed to facilitate state-of-the-art vehicle recycling and minimize waste arising from end-of-life cars. In this study, dynamic modeling and cost-benefit analysis have been employed to investigate how polices, including government subsidies, a value added tax and a deposit-refund system, may affect recycling of end-of-life passenger cars. The results indicate that a combination of deposits and subsidies will surpass all of the other independent policies in terms of the recycling rate. This combination is expected to lead to a recycling rate of 80% of end-of-life passenger cars by 2050. However, the government will have to pay an annual 62 billion Chinese Yuan in the middle of the century for old-for-new replacement subsidies, posing a heavy burden on public finance. Comparatively, the deposit-only scenario will cost the government 4.7 billion Chinese Yuan and elevate the recycling rate to 46% in 2050. These policies may help curb the black market and promote the legitimate business of dismantling and recycling in the long run. Moreover, the prospect of vehicle remanufacturing will play another key role in diminishing the black market. The results in China are compared with policies and practices in Europe, Japan and South Korea to help decision-makers develop the most appropriate strategies for end-of-life vehicle management.

Application potential of high performance steels for weight reduction and efficiency increase in commercial vehicles

The fast-growing economy and the gradually established highway system have boosted the road transportation for both passenger and cargo over the last decade in China. From 2000 to 2010 Chinese GDP increased by around 10.15% annually and the sales of medium and heavy trucks by around 18.87% (sales increased from 0.2 million in 2000 to 1.3 million in 2010) according to the National Bureau of Statistics of People’s Republic of China. Today commercial vehicles consume almost the same amount of fuel as passenger cars in China although the number of commercial vehicles is only about one fourth of passenger cars. It is estimated that around 50% of imported fuel to China each year will be consumed by vehicle transportation. This situation will worsen fuel shortage problems in the long run and at the same time it is partially responsible for the ever-worsening air pollution in China. Due to the widespread overloading in China, lightweight development in commercial vehicles has fallen far behind that of passenger cars with the consequences that Chinese commercial vehicles consume in average about 20% more fuel, especially the heavy trucks, compared to European models. Under these circumstances it is essential to reduce the vehicle fuel consumption and increase the transport efficiency. The key solution thereby is to implement lightweight design in commercial vehicles as it has been successfully practiced over the last decade in the passenger cars. This paper summarizes highlights given in presentations during the “International seminar on the application of high strength steels in light weight commercial vehicles” with the focus on the development and application of Nb alloyed high performance steels made for lightweight commercial vehicles.

Grey Accumulation Generation Relational Analysis Model for Nonequidistance Unequal-Length Sequences and Its Application

As research is required on nonequidistance unequal-length sequences, so grey accumulation generation relational analysis model based on grey exponential law (AGRA) for nonequidistance unequal-length (NDUL) sequences is put forward in this paper. The original data is accumulated generation firstly and the generation sequences are simulated. Then the generation rate is established as the ratio of the tangent slope and the mean of the simulation function. Furthermore, the dynamic similarity of change trend of the original time sequences is characterized by the proximity of generation rate sequences. Meanwhile, properties of AGRA model for nonequidistance unequal-length sequences are discussed. The new relational analysis model is available for equal interval sequences, nonequidistance sequences, sequences which have relationship before transformation and sequences which have relationship after accumulation; therefore, the AGRA model has expanded the scope of application of grey relational analysis. Lastly, factors which affect the amount of passenger cars in China are sorted using AGRA model for NDUL sequences. This application is presented to illustrate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed model.