Pass-through Effect Research Articles

Carbon pass-through rates on spot electricity prices in Australia

This study assesses the impact of the Australian Carbon Pricing Mechanism (CPM) on electricity prices in the National Electricity Market (NEM). An econometric model is designed to examine the influence of short-run marginal costs, electricity demand and emission intensities on carbon pass-through to spot electricity prices. Our sample period from July 2009 to June 2016 allows us to analyse three different sub-periods in order to quantify pass-through effects: the period before the CPM, the period when the pricing mechanism was effective, as well as the period after its repeal. Therefore, our study allows a comprehensive evaluation of the effect of carbon pricing on the Australian electricity spot market. Our results demonstrate a high degree of carbon costs pass-through across the considered markets, while the increase in electricity prices typically exceeds carbon costs, in particular for the markets in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia. Furthermore, we find a negative relationship between carbon pass-through rates and emission intensities in the regional markets: pass-through rates were relatively low for Victoria that is characterised by electricity generation from fossil fuels and high emission intensities, while they were the highest for South Australia, a market with the lowest emission intensities and a higher share of renewable energy generation. We also find that for most markets, emission intensities were only reduced by a relatively small margin during the tax period and electricity prices have never reverted back to their pre-tax levels after the repeal of the tax. • The impact of the Carbon Pricing Mechanism (CPM) on Australian spot electricity prices is examined. • Results demonstrate that consumers were bearing the costs of carbon rather than generators. • Carbon costs pass-through estimates range from 100% to 290% across regional markets. • Evidence for a minor reduction in emission intensities during the CPM period is found. • Spot prices did not revert back to their pre-CPM levels after abolishment of the CPM.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices in Mexico: A Study of the Main Border and Non-Border Cities

This study analyzes the exchange rate pass-through effect on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Mexico's main border and 27 non-border metropolitan cities. The period examined includes monthly data from January 2002 to December 2019. A vector autoregressive model (VAR) is used, which includes formal employment at the city level as a proxy to economic development, interest rates, nominal exchange rates, each analyzed city’s CPI, U.S. consumer prices, energy commodity prices and control variables such as service sector employment share and large firm employment share. Impulse response functions are constructed. Results for the 2002-2016 period indicate that exchange rate changes primarily affect border cities. Different arguments are included to justify such results. Pass-through values are also found to increase in general for all cities when the period 2017-2019 (January 2017 when important gasoline price shocks started previous its price liberalization in December 2017) is included in the regressions.

ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ ПЕРЕНОСА РОЗНИЧНЫХ ЦЕН НА НЕФТЕПРОДУКТЫ НА РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЙ УРОВЕНЬ ИНФЛЯЦИИ (Research Transfer of Retail Prices for Petroleum Products to the Regional Level of Inflation)

Russian Abstract: Цель данной работы заключается в разработке методологии необходимой для проведения количественной оценки эффекта переноса цен на нефтепродукты на уровень инфляции. На основании полученных результатов предлагаются рекомендации, направленные на повышение эффективности таргетирования инфляции в России. English Abstract: The aim of the study is to develop methodology to evaluate the oil products pass-through effect on inflation. Estimated results will be used for development of recommendations needed for improving the effectiveness of inflation targeting policy in Russian Federation.

Study on the cross-correlation between two country for soybean futures price and exchange rate

The paper investigates the connection between two countries’ foreign exchange and futures market for soybean, DCE NO.1 soybean and CBOT soybean as the research object by using multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA). Results indicate a significant multifractal cross-correlation among USDCNY and two country’s soybean futures. By contrasting the multifractality of the original series to processed series, we discover that the fat-tailed distribution serves as the primary cause for USDCNY-DCE sets while the long-range correlation explains the other. Our result shows that the soybean futures in China has a higher multifractality degree, but the fluctuation of exchange rate has a better pass-through effect on the price of US soybean futures’ market.

Analiza uticaja promene nominalnog deviznog kursa na stopu inflacije na primeru odabranih zemalja

Inflation rate is one of the essential macroeconomics variables and it represents the main goal of monetary policy. It is determined by a great number of factors, so it is necessary to analyse the impact their changes have on inflation rate. The purpose of this research is the analysis of the nominal exchange rate pass-through effect on inflation rate in selected emerging and developed countries in the period 2014-2020, which share the same characteristics of inflation targeting, as main monetary policy regime, and managed floating exchange rate, as exchange rate type. Inverse proportion between volatility of nominal exchange rate and inflation rate is proven (depreciation of nominal exchange rate of national currency leads towards the growth of inflation rate), as well as higher pass-through effect in emerging countries compared to developed countries.

Pass-through effects of global oil and food price shocks on Moroccos inflation: frequency causality analysis in VAR model

Pass-through effects of global oil and food price shocks on Moroccos inflation: frequency causality analysis in VAR model

Federal Funds Rate Spillover to ECB Interest Rate: Are Macroeconomic Fundamentals Important?

This paper examines the spillover effects of the monetary policy from federal funds rate (FFR) to European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate. The study implements a regression model to examine the pass-through effect between the two interest rates. Using quarterly data for the period 1999:1-2019:1 the estimated results indicate a statistically significant relationship between the Federal Funds Rate and the European Central Bank interest rate The Granger causality tests suggest that the causality runs from FFR to ECB interest rate. The responsiveness of the ECB interest rate depends on US macroeconomic fundamentals rather than European fundamentals. More importantly, this responsiveness depends on the monetary policy stance in the US economy. A contractionary monetary policy in the US economy is accompanied with higher responsiveness of the ECB interest rate. Additionally, the results suggest the higher the inflation in the US economy, the higher the responsiveness of the ECB interest rate would be.

Direct vs. Indirect Impact of Fuel Price on Wages in South Africa

The international oil price has been increasing significantly, but consumers react more to the announcement of the increase in fuel (pump) price, than an increase in international oil prices. This study, therefore, investigates the direct effect of fuel prices on the inflation rate and wages in South Africa, on the one hand, and the domestic price pass-through from fuel prices to wages (indirect effect) on the other. The impulse-response function of the vector autoregressive (VAR) technique was used to examine the direct and indirect effects of fuel prices on the inflation rate and wages, as well as the domestic prices pass-through from fuel prices to wages in South Africa. Quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2018Q2 were utilised. The empirical results showed that inflation and wages responded positively to the shock in the fuel price. The results indicated that although wages increased because of a shock in the inflation rate—depicting the pass-through from the fuel price—the direct impact of the fuel price on wages is more significant. This study departs from the usual studies that examine the exchange rate pass-through of international oil prices to the inflation rate. The conclusion drawn was that the pass-through effect was not as strong and did not contribute as much as the direct effect of the fuel price. Therefore, the indirect shock of fuel prices, via inflation, does not so much cause an increase in wages as its direct shock. The study concludes with policy recommendations.

Exchange Rate Pass-through to Producer Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Panel Contemporaneous Correlated Approach

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the exchange rate pass-through to producer prices in South African industries from 1970 to 2016. Empirical results from panel contemporaneous techniques indicate that exchange rate pass-through to South African producer prices is contingent on the currency choice with substantial variations across industries. Particularly, Rand variations with the currency of Germany, Japan, and the US pose greater influence on the producer prices of South African industries whilst the Chinese and Indian currency variations have the least bearing. The mining and quarrying; the manufacturing and the construction industries are among the sectors that are most exposed to the exchange rate fluctuations. The less pass-through effect occurs in three sectors, namely trade, catering and accommodation services; electricity, gas and water; and transport, storage and communication. This possibly indicates their limited exposure to external shocks.

The dynamic impact of international agricultural commodity price fluctuation on Chinese agricultural commodity prices

The correlation between Chinese and international commodity prices may be nonlinear because of China’s minimum agricultural commodity purchase price policy and temporary storage policy. In order to research this nonlinear dynamic correlation mechanism, we construct a nonlinear Granger causality test model and a nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag model including Chinese and international agricultural commodity (soybean, corn, rice, and wheat) price variables. Our empirical results reveal that a unidirectional causal relation exists between international and Chinese prices for soybeans and corn; specifically, international prices of soybeans and corn Granger-cause Chinese prices of soybeans and corn. Moreover, the pass-through effects between Chinese and international commodity prices are asymmetric; Chinese agricultural commodity prices respond more strongly to positive shocks than negative shocks of international agricultural commodity prices.

Pass through effects of oil price on food and non-food prices in Pakistan: A nonlinear ARDL approach

Petroleum products constitute major share of Pakistan's imports. A change in crude oil prices affects energy prices and thus manufacturing and transportation cost. All these factors result in influencing the prices of goods and services which ultimately affect the welfare level of masses. Keeping in view, the market structure at international and local level, present study examines the pass-through effect of crude oil prices on food and non-food prices in Pakistan using nonlinear and asymmetric autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) model and causality tests for 1990Q3 to 2019Q4 period. Results show that oil prices effect both food and non-food inflation, but effect is more pronounced in non-food inflation. It is also found that the impact is asymmetric, that is, effect is positive and significant only when oil price increase. Results of this study confirm the role of market power in commodity prices in Pakistan and call for effective regulatory policies.

Adoption of Inflation Targeting in Sierra Leone: An Empirical Discourse

The main research question of this paper is to assess Sierra Leone’s preparedness for adopting a fully-fledged or lite Inflation Targeting (IT) framework amid macroeconomic and structural bottlenecks experienced in the domestic economy. Several theoretical and empirical perspectives were reviewed to bring out cogent insights on the subject matter. With the use of the Unrestricted Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, relevant macroeconomic variables ranging from 2010Q2 to 2019Q4 were utilised to assess plausible outcomes, aided with some iterative shock impulses, variance decomposition, and historical decomposition, to explain the reaction of inflation to specific factors in Sierra Leone. The study outcome suggests that Sierra Leone as a supply-driven economy is inducing a high level of inflation on account of the pass-through effect of high prices to consumers in the domestic economy. This to a greater extent is undermining monetary policy management, which gives credence to the fact that authorities at the Bank of Sierra Leone should not switch to inflation targeting in the short and medium-term on the basis that monetary policy actions could instigate further price increases of goods and services, underpinned by weak real sector operations and a somewhat dollarized domestic market. At best, there is a need for BSL to continue its current policy methodology, while working in ensuring monetary policy actions are transparent and well communicated at all times to getting inflation to a single-digit.

Modelling liner forces response to very close-proximity tunnelling in soft alluvial deposits

The response of tunnel liner forces to the construction of very close-proximity tunnels is rather complex and depends upon ground deformability, liner joint configuration, intersection angle of new tunnel construction. A consensus with respect to securing the safety of very close-proximity tunnelling has not yet reached. This study characterised the response of tunnel liner forces to the excavation of very close-proximity tunnels, with reference to the field measurements and 2D numerical simulations. The very close-proximity tunnelling was conducted in the soft alluvial deposits at Taipei, Taiwan where two 6.1-m diameter shield tunnels ran in parallel and then stacked each other while entering the reception shaft. The ‘belta’ and the ‘volume loss’ methods were to distribute the earth load to the liner and capture the effect of ground loss respectively and the ‘local strain’ method was to reproduce both the effect of very close-proximity tunnelling and the effect of pass-through by applying a given volumetric strain to soil clusters. The predictions against the three different phases of shield approaching to (66D distance from the Ring H), reaching (1D distance from the Ring H) and passing through (57D distance from the Ring H) the existing tunnel were compared with the field measurements respectively. The principle stress change and rotation were analysed. Parametric studies with respect to the joint number and angle, ground deformability, and rotational stiffness of joint were conducted. The critical angles for the distribution of odd number joint while aligned-inclined tunnelling in the very close proximity of the existing tunnel were suggested. The results are useful in understanding the response of tunnel liner forces to the effect of very close-proximity tunnelling and optimising the joint number and angle towards securing the safety of very close-proximity tunnelling in soft soils.

The relationship between credit ratings and asset liquidity: Evidence from Western European banks

This study examines the role of asset liquidity in Western European banks’ credit rating downgrades and upgrades over the 2005–2017 period. The results suggest that changes in bank credit ratings have been more favorable for banks that have a liquid asset portfolio. Furthermore, asset liquidity has a stronger effect on the credit rating of banks that already have an illiquid asset portfolio. In contrast, the effect is significantly smaller or nonexistent for the most liquid banks. These results imply that the new liquidity regulation introduced by the Basel III requirements will improve the stability and hence decrease the fragility of the European banking sector. Furthermore, the benefits are highest for the most illiquid banks. In addition, the sovereign credit rating pass-through effect is strongest for illiquid banks.

An Assessment of the Effect of World Oil Price Shocks on Uganda’s Official Development Assistance

This study assesses the effect of world oil price shocks on Uganda’s official development assis-tance using Structural Vector Autoregressive Model (SVAR). The results in this study show in-significant pass-through effect of world oil price shocks to Uganda’s Official Development As-sistance received in the period under the study. The policy implication in this study is that Offi-cial Development Assistance received by Uganda is independent of world oil price shocks.

TESTING FOR COMPLETE PASS-THROUGH OF EXCHANGE RATE WITHOUT TRADE BARRIERS

The objective of this paper is to test whether the complete pass-through of exchange rate exists when there are almost no transaction costs and in the environment of competitive market. In general, the literature claims that the pass-through of exchange rate is incomplete due to imperfect market, i.e. the presence of transaction costs and imperfect competition. The quasi-experimental case of the food import to Hong Kong from Mainland China is considered in the analysis. The results show that the pass-through of the exchange rate of Chinese RMB against to US dollar to Hong Kong’s food import price is complete in long-run equilibrium. Besides, the short-run adjustment significantly contributes to correcting the deviation from the long-run pass-through effect. Moreover, the complete pass-through still exists after accounting for the effects of asymmetry and volatility. Therefore, this paper contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence that the complete pass-through of exchange rate can exist in the real world.

Transmission Mechanism of Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Price: The Case of Afghanistan

This article investigates the mechanism of exchange rate pass-through to the prices in the context of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan’s economy. This study explored the magnitude and speed of the pass-through effect on the prices by analyzing quarterly data from 2003 Q1 to 2019 Q2 considering five variables (viz., world food price index, foreign reserves, money supply, import price, and nominal effective exchange rate) based on the Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) with the cointegration and innovation accounting tools such has impulse response function and variance decomposition. The findings of the study suggest that the exchange rate pass-through in Afghanistan is incomplete. The import price is highly responsive in the short-run and moderately responsive an increasingly smooth movement in the long-run. However, CPI in the short-run with swift positive respond but the long-run smooth increasing movement. Furthermore, variance decomposition evidence shows that import price is affected by FR, NEER, CPI, and MS in both short-run and long-run, but the CPI strongly lagged by its variance, WFP, NEER, import price, and MS.

Oil Price Shocks, Fuel Subsidies and Macroeconomic (In)stability in Nigeria

This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of oil price shocks and the extant fuel subsidy regime for Nigeria. To do this, we develop and estimate a New-Keynesian DSGE model that accounts for pass-through effect of international oil price into the retail price of fuel. Our results show that oil price shocks generate significant and persistent impacts on output, accounting for about 22 percent of its variations up to the fourth year. Under our benchmark model (i.e. with fuel subsidies), we show that a negative oil price shock contracts aggregate GDP, boosts non-oil GDP, increases headline inflation, and depreciates the exchange rate. However, results generated under the model without fuel subsidies indicate that the contractionary effect of a negative oil price shock on aggregate GDP is moderated, headline inflation decreases, while the exchange rate depreciates more in the short-run. Counterfactual simulations also reveal that fuel subsidy removal leads to higher macroeconomic instabilities and generates non-trivial implications for the response of monetary policy to an oil price shock. Thus, this study cautions that a successful fuel subsidy reform must necessarily encompass the deployment of well-targeted safety nets as well as the evolution of sustainable adjustment mechanisms.

Examining the asymmetric monetary policy response to foreign exchange market conditions in emerging and developing economies

In many emerging market economies that have adopted inflation targeting, policymakers are concerned with the effects that strong appreciation/depreciation pressures and excessive volatility in exchange rates may have on economic stability and their ability to reach their inflation targets. The research in this paper addresses whether central banks have an asymmetric response to exchange rate conditions with respect to meeting their monetary policy objectives. Using a panel of 30 emerging market and developing economies, we employ a panel threshold regression analysis to determine whether policymakers respond differently during appreciation versus depreciation periods, during periods of high versus low exchange rate volatility, or when the country has a relatively high exchange rate pass-through effect. We find that policymakers react more strongly and significantly to depreciations with increases in domestic interest rates, while remaining inactive during periods of appreciation. Yet, during appreciationary periods, they react more strongly to deviations in output from its potential, suggesting a concern over competitiveness. Furthermore, volatility in exchange rates is a significant concern to policymakers, as they regularly claim, and when volatility is sufficiently high, policymakers react with higher interest rates to maintain stability and mitigate capital outflows. Lastly, with a stronger exchange rate pass-through effect, policymakers are more responsive to depreciationary pressure as it affects their ability to reach inflation targets.

ANALYZING THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF CRUDE OIL PRICE CHANGES ON CHINA’S PETROLEUM PRODUCT PRICES

As the world’s second-largest crude oil consumer, China depends on imports for approximately 60% and domestic production for approximately 40%, of its oil demand. Therefore, it is very interesting to assess the pass-through effects of both domestic and international crude oil prices to gasoline and diesel prices. After the short- and long-run investigations using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology of Shin et al. [Shin, Y, BC Yu and M Greenwood-Nimmo (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework” Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, R Sickels and W Horrace (eds.), pp. 281–314. Springer.], we find overwhelming evidence supporting the asymmetric price transmission mechanism between crude oil prices and gasoline prices in both the short- and long-run. In the case of diesel prices, on the other hand, the asymmetry effects seem likely to be a long-run phenomenon.