Party Vote Share Research Articles

Do Politics in Europe Benefit from Politicising Corruption?

In this article, two unexplored trends in European electoral politics are highlighted. Using newly collected data the article tracks the politicisation of corruption in electoral campaigns from 1981 to 2011, an electoral strategy that has been increasing over time in most European countries. It then empirically tests two aspects of this campaign strategy. First, what are the factors that are systematically associated with a party’s decision to politicise corruption? Second, what are the electoral effects in terms of relative vote share for parties that politicise corruption? Using an original data-set that employs multi-level data (parties nested in countries) the results demonstrate first that politicisation of corruption occurs systematically more often among established parties from the main opposition, new parties and parties on the political right, and occurs as a function of country-level corruption, district magnitude and public party financing. Second, it is found that the main opposition and new parties that use such a campaign strategy make significant electoral gains relative to the previous election compared to parties that do not politicise corruption. Yet gains are offset in low-corruption countries. The findings demonstrate salient implications for research on party systems, corruption studies and democratic legitimacy, among other areas of investigation.

Voting Islamist or voting secular? An empirical analysis of voting outcomes in Egypt’s “Arab Spring”

This paper studies empirically the voting outcomes of Egypt’s first parliamentary elections after the Arab Spring. In light of the strong Islamist success at the polls, we explore the main determinants of Islamist versus secular voting. We identify two dimensions that affect voting outcomes at the constituency level: socioeconomic profile and the electoral institutional framework. Our results show that education is negatively associated with Islamist voting. Interestingly, we find significant evidence suggesting that higher poverty levels are associated with a lower vote share for Islamist parties. Exploiting the sequential voting setup, we show that later voting stages have not resulted in stronger support for the already winning Islamist parties (i.e., there is no bandwagon effect).

Electoral consequences of declining participation: A natural experiment in Austria

Participation rates have declined sharply across developed democracies. But the precise impact of this decline on party systems has proven difficult to study due to endogeneity concerns. This paper seeks to address this issue by leveraging a natural experiment in Austrian parliamentary elections. By examining instances in which compulsory voting was gradually repealed in a federal setting, I isolate the causal relationship between turnout decline and subsequent shifts in party vote share. The findings suggest that turnout decline is not associated with a significant redistribution of votes between parties. The clearest visible effect is a consolidation of the party system, with a mild shift in votes from minor to mainstream parties. Evaluating the findings, the paper argues that characteristics of proportional representation systems insulate parties against the consequences of declining electoral participation.

The variable choice set logit model applied to the 2004 Canadian election

Formal work on the electoral model often suggests that parties should locate at the electoral mean. Recent research has found no evidence of such convergence. In order to explain non-convergence, the stochastic electoral model is extended by including a competence and sociodemographic valance in a country where regional and national parties compete in the election. That is, the model allows voters to face different sets of parties in different regions. We introduce the notion of a convergence coefficient, c for regional and national parties and show that when c is high there is a significant centrifugal tendency acting on parties. An electoral survey of the 2004 election in Canada is used to construct a stochastic electoral model of the election with two regions: Quebec and the rest of Canada. The survey allows us to estimate voter positions in the policy space. The variable choice set logit model is used to built a relationship between party position and vote share. We find that in the local Nash equilibrium for the election the two main parties with high competence valence, the Liberals and Conservatives, locate at the national electoral mean and the Bloc Quebecois, with the highest competence valence, locates at the Quebec electoral mean. The New Democratic Party has a low competence valence but remains at the national mean. The Greens, with lowest competence valence, locate away from the national mean to increase its vote share.

The Variable Choice Set Logit Model Applied to the 2004 Canadian Election

Formal work on the electoral model often suggests that parties should locate at the electoral mean. Recent research has found no evidence of such convergence. In order to explain non-convergence, the stochastic electoral model is extended by including a competence and sociodemographic valance in a country where regional and national parties compete in the election. That is, the model allows voters to face different sets of parties in different regions. We introduce the notion of a convergence coefficient, c for regional and national parties and show that when c is high there is a significant centrifugal tendency acting on parties. An electoral survey of the 2004 election in Canada is used to construct a stochastic electoral model of the election with two regions: Quebec and the rest of Canada. The survey allows us to estimate voter positions in the policy space. The variable choice set logit model is used to built a relationship between party position and vote share. We find that in the local Nash equilibrium for the election the two main parties with high competence valence, the Liberals and Conservatives, locate at the national electoral mean and the Bloc Quebecois, with the highest competence valence, locates at the Quebec electoral mean. The New Democratic Party has a low competence valence but remains at the national mean. The Greens, with lowest competence valence, locate away from the national mean to increase its vote share.

Voting Islamist or Voting Secular? An Empirical Analysis of Voting Outcomes in 'Arab Spring' Egypt

This paper empirically studies the voting outcomes of Egypt’s first parliamentary elections after the Arab Spring. In light of the strong Islamist success in the polls, we explore the main determinants of Islamist vs. secular voting. We identify three dimensions that affect voting outcomes at the constituency level: the socio-economic profile, the economic structure and the electoral institutional framework. Our results show that education is negatively associated with Islamist voting. Interestingly, we find significant evidence which suggests that higher poverty levels are associated with a lower vote share for Islamist parties. Later voting stages in the sequential voting setup do not exhibit a bandwagon effect.

Incumbent Effects and Partisan Alignment in Local Elections: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis Using Italian Data

This paper provides a simple model to explain effect of political alignment between different tiers of government on policy choices and election outcomes. We derive precise predictions that, as long as voters attribute most of the credit for providing public goods to the local government: (i) aligned municipalities receive more grants, set lower taxes and provide more public goods, (ii) that the probability that the local incumbent is re-elected is higher in aligned municipalities compared to not aligned ones. Our empirical strategy to identify the alignment effects is built upon the fact that being or not aligned changes discontinuously at 50% of the vote share of local parties. This allows us to use sharp regression discontinuity design. Our theoretical predictions are largely con…rmed using a new dataset on Italian public finance and electoral data at the central and local level.

Forecasting British Elections: The ‘PM and the Pendulum’ Model Reconsidered

Various approaches have been taken to forecasting the outcomes of elections. The “PM and the Pendulum” model uses Prime Ministerial Approval as the sole short-term predictor of the vote in British General Elections. Here we test the forecasting power of this predictor against a close rival – Government Approval. Using a time-varying parameter estimator, we demonstrate that between elections and especially in the months preceding a General Election, PM Approval is the most accurate predictor of both governing party vote intentions and the actual vote on Election Day, as measured in governing party vote share. The autoregressive model for translating votes into seats, based on elections from 1910 onward, provides an almost exact prediction of the outcome of the 2010 contest.

Autocratic Adaptation: The Strategic Use of Transparency and the Persistence of Election Fraud

Why would an autocrat want, or at least make it appear to want, to reduce election fraud? In recent years, non-democratic rulers have surprisingly begun to embrace fraud-reducing technologies, like web cameras or transparent ballot boxes. The reason for this is not found in international norms or domestic conditions for post-electoral protest, but rather in the null effect on the ruling party vote share. With the help of new fraud identification techniques, I argue that the installation of web cameras in polling stations changes how fraud is conducted. Web cameras do not reduce fraud, but rather make certain blatant forms of fraud, like ballot box stuffing, more costly. Autocrats then substitute for other types of fraud, such as fabricating vote count outside the view of the cameras, in order to secure electoral victory. Overall, this paper identifies this compensation mechanism where incumbents are able to prevent vote share losses, while contributing a veneer of legitimacy by self-initiating anti-fraud measures.

The effects of party campaign spending under proportional representation: Evidence from Germany

Most of the literature investigating the effects of campaign spending on electoral outcomes focuses on individual candidates in majoritarian systems. This paper contributes to the literature on the effectiveness of party campaign spending on party vote shares under systems of proportional representation. German data are used to test several hypotheses derived from a simple election contest model. The results are mixed and only partially support the hypothesis of a positive effect of campaign spending on a party's vote share.

Weather conditions and political party vote share in Dutch national parliament elections, 1971–2010

Inclement weather on election day is widely seen to benefit certain political parties at the expense of others. Empirical evidence for this weather-vote share hypothesis is sparse however. We examine the effects of rainfall and temperature on share of the votes of eight political parties that participated in 13 national parliament elections, held in the Netherlands from 1971 to 2010. This paper merges the election results for all Dutch municipalities with election-day weather observations drawn from all official weather stations well distributed over the country. We find that the weather parameters affect the election results in a statistically and politically significant way. Whereas the Christian Democratic party benefits from substantial rain (10 mm) on voting day by gaining one extra seat in the 150-seat Dutch national parliament, the left-wing Social Democratic (Labor) and the Socialist parties are found to suffer from cold and wet conditions. Cold (5°C) and rainy (10 mm) election day weather causes the latter parties to lose one or two parliamentary seats.

Poverty and partisanship: Social and economic sources of support for the far Left in contemporary Germany

This article explores the changing politics of economic inequality in Germany in a time of economic austerity and high unemployment and how these changes have affected the electoral fortunes of parties on the German Left. While the SPD experienced a precipitous drop in its electoral support in the most recent federal elections, Die Linke (or the ‘Left’ Party) has emerged as a viable electoral force on the far Left. Though support for the PDS, Die Linke's predecessor, was almost exclusively confined to the Lander of the former DDR, Die Linke has seen its vote share increase in parts of Germany that were traditionally strongholds of the SPD. We analyze constituency-level election results from the 2005 and 2009 federal elections, examining the factors associated with the increase in support for Die Linke. We find that the party's vote share increased the most in constituencies suffering from economic decline, as well as in areas that were previously strongly supportive of the SPD. In the conclusion, we discuss the implications of these findings for the future of the German Left and for parties of the far Left in other advanced industrial countries.

Casualties and Incumbents: Do the Casualties from Interstate Conflicts Affect Incumbent Party Vote Share?

Research suggests that the costs of international conflict (e.g. casualties) alter public opinion, executive approval and policy positions of elected officials. However, do casualties affect voting in terms of aggregate outcomes and individual vote choices? This article examines how casualties from interstate conflicts affect voter behaviour, specifically incumbent vote share. Using the investment model of commitment to model individual vote choice, it is argued that increases in the costs of conflict (i.e., more casualties) can increase the probability that voters will support the incumbent, increasing incumbent vote share. This model is tested with both cross-national aggregate data from twenty-three countries and individual-level British survey data. The results support the argument.

The transformation of the Workers' Party in Brazil, 1989-2009

Drawing on historical institutionalism and strategic frameworks, this book analyzes the evolution of the Workers' Party between 1989, the year of Lula's first presidential bid, and 2009, when his second presidential term entered its final stretch. The book's primary purpose is to understand why and how the once-radical Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) moderated the programmatic positions it endorsed and adopted other aspects of a more catch-all electoral strategy, thereby increasing its electoral appeal. At the same time, the book seeks to shed light on why some of the PT's distinctive normative commitments and organizational practices have endured in the face of adaptations aimed at expanding the party's vote share. The conclusion asks whether, in the face of these changes and continuities, the PT can still be considered a mass organized party of the left.

The impact of value orientations on election outcomes

Assuming that parties compete along a single left-right axis, most researchers assessing the impact of party positions on voting behaviour have typically tested whether the distance or proximity between voters’ and party positions on left-right issues affects party choice or, less often, aggregate election outcomes. This piece of research suggests that the impact of other value orientations, namely materialism versus post-materialism, on election outcomes should be compared with the impact of those values representing the so-called industrial stage of development in West European societies. It then estimates models of vote share for each one of the main European party families (Socialists, Christian Democrats, Conservatives, Liberals, Left, Greens, Far Right) based on party distances from the average voter on a ‘left-right’ and a ‘materialism–post-materialism’ scale. Model building aims at testing the hypothesis that the vote share of parties belonging to ‘new politics’ party families is significantly related to their proximity advantage on the materialism–post-materialism value orientation.

Reply to Dow: Party Positions, Votes and the Mediating Role of Electoral Systems?

The proposed relationship between electoral systems and party extremism assumes that electoral systems mediate the relationship between party proximity (to the mean voter position) and vote share. In disproportional systems, parties are expected to gain greater electoral rewards for adopting moderate positions than in proportional systems. Following Jay Dow in this issue, I re-analyse the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) data to directly evaluate the hypothesized mediating role of electoral systems in explaining party vote share. 1 These analyses do not support the finding that electoral systems mediate the relationship between party proximity and vote share. This finding suggests that further exploration is necessary to understand the relationship between electoral systems and party positioning. To review, in 2001, Jay Dow published spatial mappings of the Dutch, Israeli, Canadian and French party systems and concluded that ‘parties in the majoritarian systems are located significantly closer to the center of the distribution of voters than those in proportional systems’. 2 Inspired by Dow, I then explored the same relationship between electoral system proportionality and average party extremism in eighteen countries. 3 Parties competing in proportional electoral systems were expected, on average, to adopt more extreme policy positions than their counterparts competing in disproportional systems. After analysing eighteen democracies, however, I reported that there was no evidence that electoral systems affect parties’ tendencies to propose extreme or moderate policy positions. Jay Dow analyses the same relationship in thirty-one countries using more recent data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), 4 and he reconfirms the conclusions he reports in his 2001 article that proportional electoral systems promote party extremism, and disproportional systems are more compact. I do not question the conclusions Dow reports: the empirical findings stand. If this is the case, the question naturally turns to what accounts for the difference in findings. Earlier in the issue, Dow accurately targets explanations for the differences. These are based on time-period, data and groups of countries. Since I agree that these are the likely candidates, and I do not take issue with Dow’s empirical findings, I wish to push the argument forward by turning the

Testing the Effects of Ballot Access Reform on Non-Major Party Electoral Fortunes: The Case of Florida's Revision 11

The research tests the effects of egalitarian ballot access on the electoral fortunes of non-major party candidates for U.S. House seats. In 1998, Florida voters passed an amendment to the state constitution that removed all auxiliary barriers to ballot access for non-major parties. In bivariate and multiple regression testing, the reform is associated with a statistically significant increase in the number of non-major party candidates and their vote-share. The change, however, is small. Moreover, these increased contestation rates and vote support occur primarily in the first election cycle after the reform was adopted. Output from Tobit and GLS regression suggests that the best case scenario is about a 1.3 percent increase in the non-major party vote share in U.S. House races in Florida. The study concludes that states’ pursuit of egalitarian ballot access laws will not likely create substantive expansion of minor-party electoral success.

Norwegian Parties and Web 2.0

ABSTRACT The focus of this article is on Norwegian political parties' adaption of Web 2.0 before and during the long campaign for the local elections in September 2007. By 2007, most parties had learned to use their Web sites as instruments for professional political marketing. In this process of streamlining, party presence on the Web acquired the characteristics of what is now conceptualized as Web 1.0. This article asks whether the emergence of Web 2.0, with its potential for grassroots participation and networking, as well as multilateral interactivity, was a catalyst of “e-ruptive” change towards greater pluralism or participation. The data indicate that in terms of party competition, Web 2.0 had at best a weak pluralizing effect, as party visibility in Web 2.0 environments roughly reflected party vote share. However, Web 2.0 enhanced participatory democracy by lowering the threshold for the involvement of the party grassroots and other sympathizers.

Evaluating the Electoral Effects of Traditional and Modern Modes of Constituency Campaigning in Britain 1992-2005

This article examines changes in the nature of constituency campaigning in Britain over the four general elections between 1992 and 2005. Using quantitative scales of traditional and modern forms of campaigning, the analysis suggests that, in general, traditional campaigning has declined in importance and that there has been increasing reliance on modern techniques. The article then considers the relative impact of more modern and more traditional campaigns on party vote share and electoral turnout. It shows that, in general, traditional campaigning tends to yield greater electoral payoffs, but that the positive impact of modern campaigning techniques upon turnout is growing.

A Rational Calculus of Voting Considering Coalition Signals: The 2005 German Bundestag Election as an Example

This article extends the calculus of rational voting (Riker & Ordeshook, 1968) by considering the coalition building process and the legislative process (cf. Austen-Smith & Banks, 1988) in multi-party systems. Comparing preferences on coalitions and their resulting legislative outcomes instead of party preferences, I create preference profiles of voters on coalitions and estimate the probability that a coalition forms, given the parties' coalition signals, and an expected electoral result. I illustrate the results of this rational calculus for the German Bundestag elections 2005 as a political map. Furthermore, this calculus allows the identification of coalition signals which raise and reduce a party's vote share.