Party Support Research Articles

ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL COMMUNICATION, POLITICAL LEADERSHIP IN POLITICAL PARTIES, POLITICAL COSTS, GOVERNMENT SUPPORT FOR PUBLIC TRUST IN ACEH PROVINCE

Purpose: The purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of political communication, political leadership within political parties, political costs, and government support on public trust in Aceh Province. Theoretical framework: The urgency of analyzing political communication, political leadership within political parties, political costs, and government support for public trust in Aceh Province lies in the importance of understanding and enhancing the quality of the political process in the region. By deepening the understanding of these factors, efforts can be made to strengthen effective political communication, build quality political leadership, manage political costs effectively, and increase government support for political parties. This is expected to have a positive impact on public trust in political parties, strengthen democracy, and promote sustainable development in Aceh Province. Design/methodology/approach: the study used an explanatory research method with a quantitative approach in Aceh province. It focused on variables such as political communication, leadership qualities within political parties, political costs, government support, public trust, and voting intention. The sample consisted of 278 respondents, selected using purposive sampling. Data was collected over four months using Google Forms. The objective was to analyze the influence of political communication, leadership qualities, political costs, and government support on public trust, as factors affecting voting intention. Data processing involved steps such as data inspection, coding, and tabulation using an index table. Descriptive analysis, specifically the Index Analysis technique, was used to depict respondents' perceptions. Findings: This research reveals interesting insights into the perception and voting intention towards political parties in Aceh. Respondents showed high satisfaction and agreement with the variables of political communication, leadership qualities within political parties, political costs, and government support in the context of legislative and regional elections. Political communication was perceived as effective by the respondents, and the leadership qualities within political parties were also highly rated. While respondents expressed satisfaction with political costs in elections, there are concerns regarding the proportional relationship between high political costs and the perceived quality of political parties by the public. Government support for political parties was considered satisfactory as well. Public trust can be eroded by corruption, injustice, or government failure to meet public expectations. Therefore, it is important for political parties and the government to strengthen their relationship with the public through empowerment, openness, and responsiveness to public aspirations. The findings of this research provide valuable insights for political parties to improve their strategies. Effective political communication, charismatic leadership within political parties, efficient management of political costs, and strong government support are crucial factors in building trust and winning the hearts of voters. Research, Practical & Social implications: The research findings reveal important insights into the perception and voting intention towards political parties in Aceh. The respondents expressed high satisfaction and agreement with variables such as political communication, leadership qualities within political parties, political costs, and government support in the context of elections. Effective political communication was identified as a crucial factor in building trust between political parties and voters, while the leadership qualities within political parties were highly valued by the respondents. Transparent management of campaign funds and strong government support were also considered important for maintaining public trust. These findings have practical implications for political parties to improve their strategies, including enhancing political communication, developing competent leaders, ensuring transparency in campaign finance, and fostering good relations with the government. Furthermore, the research highlights the social implications of trust in political institutions, emphasizing the need for transparency, accountability, and responsiveness to public aspirations to maintain public trust in the government and promote a healthy political system and democracy. Originality/value: This research provides original insights into the perception and voting intention towards political parties in Aceh, highlighting high satisfaction with political communication, leadership qualities, political costs, and government support. However, concerns arise regarding the proportional relationship between high political costs and the perceived quality of political parties. It emphasizes the importance of strengthening the relationship between political parties, the government, and the public through empowerment, openness, and responsiveness to build trust. The findings offer valuable recommendations for political parties to improve their strategies, focusing on effective communication, charismatic leadership, efficient management of costs, and strong government support as crucial factors in winning the hearts of voters.

Economic voting in the 2023 Turkish general election

ABSTRACT The Turkish economy presented a complicated picture ahead of the 2023 election, with significant currency depreciation and soaring inflation yet robust growth and stable employment levels. How did voters’ economic perceptions shape election results in such a context? Drawing on Turkish Election Study surveys, this study reaches two main conclusions. First, while the average evaluation of the economy in the electorate was quite poor, there is a sharp divergence across incumbent supporters and others: The incumbent Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi – AKP) supporters’ evaluations have changed little since the previous election in 2018, yet those of other voters have deteriorated significantly. Second, the opposition seems to have failed in convincing large parts of the electorate that they would manage the economy better than Erdoğan. Overall, economic voting appears to have worked as expected, and the unwavering economic evaluations of likely AKP voters and the perceived incompetence of the opposition seem to have helped Erdoğan to win another term.

Spatial spillover effects associated with the Sweden Democrats' growing support

AbstractResearch on the growing support of radical right parties cannot ignore the role of spatial, contextual effects and geographical proximity. One important spatial factor is the halo effect, which suggests that a radical right party is more likely to perform well in a homogeneous electoral district surrounded by ethnically diverse areas. Voter behaviour is influenced by certain neighbourhood effects, which can be spatially distant, originating from neighbouring areas. In this way, the presence of groups more inclined to support the radical right in an area can, through interaction and observations of signs or norms, modify an individual's party preference. In this paper, I model the 2018 election results of the Sweden Democrats at the level of the 6004 Swedish electoral districts using the Spatial Durbin Model specification. The spatial model shows a better fit and indicates a spillover effect of the level of education and median wealth in addition to the contextual role of ethnic diversity and its change. Changes in the proportion of non‐Europeans in neighbouring areas have had a particularly strong spillover effect, which is associated with the growing support for the Sweden Democrats.

Impact of multi-dimensional religiosity on party support in Poland

This article delves into the profound implications of multi-dimensional religiosity on political party support, with a special focus on the case of Poland (N = 1203). In a society undergoing a transformative journey towards secularism and progressiveness, the traditional role of religiosity in shaping political attitudes has been reevaluated. In order to check the impact of religiosity, binomial logistic regression models were conducted. In the study, combined Wave 7 World Value Survey and European Value Study database was used. With the obtained results, a significant role of normative religiosity was detected. The results do not confirm conclusions discussed by other leading authors in Poland, who use other models and indicators of religiosity. The proposed study provokes and encourages for change in the methodological approach in building party-support models in Poland by including and measuring the normative dimension of religiosity as the leading source of individual party support motivation, discarding thus more traditional ritualistic behaviour measuring.

Logistic hubs and support for radical-right populism: Evidence from Italy

Increasing discontent and the associated growing support for populist parties have been attributed to several drivers, including globalization, technological change, and migration waves. We analyse a phenomenon that encompasses a mix of economic and cultural grievances — the logistic revolution. The Italian logistics industry is characterized by a heavy reliance on low-paying and precarious contracts, it employs a large number of foreign workers, and is dominated by multinational corporations. The construction of large logistic hubs can increase the feeling of economic insecurity and trigger cultural backlash against foreign workers and large corporations. This, in turn, can create a favourable environment for populist radical right-wing parties that portray themselves as protectors of traditional values and national identity, and as defenders of the working class against the perceived threats posed by globalization, immigration, and large corporations. Through an IV and a DiD approach, we provide evidence that the support for Lega, a populist radical-right party, grew in Italian municipalities where new logistic hubs have been built.

The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics?

We review the growing literature on the political economy of immigration. First, we discuss the effects of immigration on a wide range of political and social outcomes. The existing evidence suggests that immigrants often, but not always, trigger backlash, increasing support for anti-immigrant parties and lowering preferences for redistribution and diversity among natives. Next, we unpack the channels behind the political effects of immigration, distinguishing between economic and noneconomic forces. In examining the mechanisms, we highlight important mediating factors, such as misperceptions, the media, and the conditions under which intergroup contact occurs. We also outline promising avenues for future research. (JEL D72, H23, J11, J15, K37, R23, Z13)

Смешанная несвязанная избирательная система — оптимальный выбор при авторитаризме? (Кросснациональное сравнительное исследование)

Over the past 30 years, the mixed parallel electoral system has become one of the popular types of electoral systems used in elections to national legislatures. Curiously, it received the highest popularity in authoritarian regimes. The article attempts to identify internal political factors that contribute to the introduction of mixed parallel electoral systems under the conditions of electoral authoritarianism. To perform this task, the author uses the binary logistic regression method. In this study, the author makes an assumption that when implementing electoral reform under authoritarianism, the ruling elite is largely guided by the desire to maintain and strengthen its power. The study shows that the mixed parallel electoral system is most likely to be introduced during the period of regime transformation. At the initial stage of the consolidation of an authoritarian regime that allows multi-party competition, the ruling elite faces the challenge of institutionalizing electoral uncertainty. The effectiveness and durability of the political regime depends on how the risks associated with elections are neutralized. The mechanical combination of majoritarian and proportional representation principles opens up an opportunity to utilize the advantages of each of the electoral formulas conditional on the political situation, allowing the existing authorities to gain control over the sweeping majority of seats in parliament even when electoral competition is increasing and the support for the dominant party is falling. According to the author’s conclusion, the use of the mixed parallel system plays an important role in the consolidation of an authoritarian regime. Due to the mechanisms inherent in this system, the ruling elite can efficiently manipulate elections, ensuring the survival and stability of the authoritarian order.

Understanding the Political Party Think Tank Landscape: A Categorization of Their Functions and Audiences

Abstract Political party think tanks (PPTTs) are important to the performance of parties' core functions. Despite their importance, they have largely escaped academic attention. To understand the role of PPTTs in contemporary politics, we develop a typology of their key functions (distinguishing between political party and think tank functions), and target audiences (distinguishing between internal and external target groups). Based on a comprehensive literature review and 22 in-depth interviews with leading representatives of PPTTs in the Netherlands and Flanders, we identify four types of PPTTs: Party Assistants, Party Supporters, Party Promoters and Party Intellectuals. The characteristics of the four types of PPTTs are illustrated through the analysis of four paradigmatic cases: the Study Centre Open Vld as an example of a Party Assistant, the Scientific Bureau GroenLinks as an example of a Party Supporter, the Renaissance Institute as an example of a Party Promoter, and the TeldersFoundation as an example of a Party Intellectual.

Substantiating EU citizenship: an unintended route to anti-establishment support

ABSTRACT This study explores the relationship between European Union citizenship and support for anti-establishment parties across the EU’s older and newer, post-communist democracies. By conceptually linking EU support to substantive EU citizenship, this study identifies the contingent nature of EU citizenship’s effect on support for anti-establishment parties. We conduct a multilevel regression analysis across 22 EU member-states, using data generated by a Eurobarometer survey conducted in 2018. This survey counts on support for EU coordinated foreign policy, in addition to conventional EU support measures, enabling an analysis at different levels of EU politics. Findings show that citizens’ support at these different levels depresses their support for anti-establishment parties across old democracies, yet increases it across new democracies. Hence, the effect of EU citizenship emerges as being contingent on whether citizens are in an old or a new, post-communist democracy of the EU, and on where the borders of the EU are drawn. This contingency has potential to be an instrument of deepening the emerging transnational cleavage between liberal, cosmopolitan and traditional, authoritarian values for old democracies and of manipulation by inward looking parochial, populist politics for new democracies. This will affect the nature of European politics and the future of integration.

Affective polarization in Europe

Abstract Affective polarization, a concept that originated in the USA, has increasingly been studied in Europe’s multi-party systems. This form of polarization refers to the extent to which party supporters dislike one another – or, more technically, to the difference between the positive feelings towards the supporters of one’s own political party and the negative feelings towards the supporters of other parties. Measuring this gap in Europe’s multi-party systems requires researchers to make various important decisions relating to conceptualization and measurement. Often, our focus could instead lie on assessing partisan hostility or negative party affect, which is easier to measure. While recent research on affective polarization in Europe has already taught USA lot, both about affective polarization and about political conflict in Europe, I nevertheless suggest that research in this field faces four challenges, namely developing better measures, more sophisticated theories, clearer accounts of affective polarization’s importance and successful ways of reducing negative party affect, if this is indeed desirable.

Panem et circenses: removing political news to generate electoral support, evidence from Berlusconi's Italy

AbstractThis paper examines the strategic use of public news media – specifically television (TV) – as an instrument of political influence, focusing on Italy's 2011 financial crisis under Berlusconi's premiership. Using an original large corpus of over 20,000 hours of televised news transcripts and a quasi-experimental design, we investigate how political influence altered media coverage and, subsequently, public opinion and electoral outcomes. Our difference-in-differences analysis, complemented by unsupervised text scaling of news content, reveals a significant shift from “hard” political news to “soft” news on public TV during Berlusconi's tenure. Findings suggest a deliberate reduction in hard news coverage by an average of 107 seconds daily, which significantly increased voter support for Berlusconi's party. In the conclusions, we discuss the broader implications of our findings for media independence in Western democracies amid the emergence of artificial intelligence-generated news contents and the prevalence of algorithmically tailored news feeds.

PERSEPSI MASYARAKAT TENTANG MENAFSIRKAN ARAH POLITIK DAN KEBIJAKAN PUBLIK

In the context of interpreting political direction, individuals are often concerned with several key factors:Public Policy: The interpretation of political direction is often related to the analysis of public policies proposed, passed or enacted by the government. This includes policies in areas such as the economy, education, health, environment and security.Political Trends: Individuals also pay attention to long-term political trends, including shifts in political ideology, support for specific political parties, and electoral dynamics.Political Leadership: Interpretation of political direction also includes analysis of political leadership, including leadership style, proposed policies and responses to key issues. Social and Economic Context: The social and economic context also plays an important role in the interpretation of political direction. Individuals consider factors such as unemployment rates, economic inequality, changing demographics and social tensions. Community Involvement: People's involvement in the political process, including participation in elections, protests, and social movements, is also a factor considered in the interpretation of political direction. This research is a qualitative approach research with descriptive mode data type, which seeks to present objective facts in accordance with the conditions that occurred at the time the research was conducted. Qualitative descriptive research seeks to describe all existing symptoms or circumstances, namely the state of the symptoms according to what they are at the time the research was conducted. Conclusions about community perceptions of interpretations of political direction and public policy Communities have a variety of views and interpretations of political direction and public policy. Factors such as cultural, social, economic and educational backgrounds can influence the way people see and understand government measures.

Does being ‘left behind’ corrode government legitimacy? Tax morale and economic stress

By now we are familiar with studies which tie being ‘left behind’ to voter support for populist or other extreme views. In the UK case, this is seen in support for Brexit but can also apply to support of parties such as UKIP (e.g. Bolet, 2021; Ford and Goodwin, 2014). Comparative studies show that electoral support for populist parties in part reflects lowered trust in mainstream politics (e.g. Geurkink et al., 2020; Keefer et al., 2021; Mauk, 2020), which is seen as a behavioural indicator of slipping legitimacy. Political support for populist movements is interpreted as declining legitimacy of existing governments, and that decline is seen as being tied to economic stress and the ‘left behind’ areas. In this article, we ask whether economics stresses also have impact upon another and possibly more direct measure of government legitimacy – tax morale.

Does Populism Fuel Affective Polarization? An Individual-Level Panel Data Analysis

Populism and affective polarization speak of a bisected society, and scholars have linked them at the party level. While the relationship between populism and affective polarization can be reciprocal, this article leverages panel data to delve into the causal relationship between populism and affective polarization. First, I posit individuals who become identified with populist parties will hold higher levels of affective polarization. Second, I expect increases in levels of populist attitudes to heighten affective polarization, and this is explained by both the increase of affect towards the ingroup and the decrease of affect towards the outgroup. Using nine waves of a panel survey, results show the importance of differentiating between measures of populism at the individual level, as the increase in populist attitudes appears to fuel affective polarization, symmetrically increasing affect towards the ingroup and decreasing affect towards the outgroup, while the effect of becoming a populist party supporter is more nuanced, as it is different for populist left and right parties.

Analisis Budaya Patriarki dalam Partisipasi Politik Perempuan: Studi Kasus Pemilihan Kepala Daerah Tahun 2005-2020 di Kota Depok

Patriarchal culture creates gender stereotypes, limited access to political networks, and a social stigma for women who want to be involved in political activities. The gender gap is also evident in political representation where women hold a smaller percentage of political positions than men. The city of Depok, as a buffer zone for the capital city, is still thick with this culture, as evidenced by the minimal participation of women in regional elections from year to year. This study will analyze the obstacles to women's political participation in Indonesia caused by patriarchal culture. The case study used is the 2005-2020 Pilkada in Depok City. This research is a qualitative - explanatory research using observation and literature studies to find a deeper understanding of the problems being faced. This study uses three main theories, namely the theory of patriarchy, political participation, and gender stereotypes. From the data that has been analyzed, the main cause of the low political participation of women in the Pilkada in Depok City from 2005-2020 is the strong patriarchal culture. Several factors cause the patriarchal culture to continue to develop in Depok City, namely gender stereotypes, low political education, double burden, and weak political party support for women during elections. This study recommends policy interventions in efforts to increase the level of education for women such as increasing women's representation in political parties, increasing the level of education for women, and empowering women in various sectors such as entrepreneurship, health, and so on to eliminate patriarchal culture and increase women's political participation in Indonesia.

Political polarization may affect attitudes towards vaccination. An analysis based on the European Social Survey data from 23 countries.

Political polarization may result in increased confirmation bias, strengthening of disinformation mechanisms or policy distortion. This raises the question whether it may influence the vaccination programmes. This study investigates the relationship between the level of political polarization and coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine behaviour and vaccine acceptance. In our study, we use the Partisan Polarization Index (PPI). The PPI aims to measure the gap between satisfaction with the government expressed by supporters of the ruling parties and that expressed by supporters of the opposition parties. We use the data from the latest round of the European Social Service from 23 countries. The effect of the PPI on the variability of vaccination declarations and intent across countries was verified based on a linear regression model. The linear regression score for 23 countries revealed a statistically significant relationship between the vaccination variable and the level of political polarization. The model explains the variability in the vaccination levels based on the PPI in a given country at 38.6%. Political polarization can contribute to shaping negative attitudes towards vaccination through policy distortion, undermining the effectiveness of compliance against regulation, undermining trust in science and increasing the public's susceptibility to conspiracy theories.

When the tables turn: Parties in power, losers’ consent, and institutional trust in Taiwan

How does vote choice and partisanship affect institutional trust in Taiwan? While the literature tackles institutional trust in democracies, analyses often focus on only one time period with aggregate measures of trust. Data from two waves from the Asian Barometer finds evidence consistent with losers’ consent of trust in electoral institutions corresponding with party support and vote choice, factors that remain after controlling for trust in non-electoral institutions and generalized trust. However, these factors do not seem to affect overall satisfaction with democracy, suggesting the public differentiates between support for the ideal of democracy and its constituent parts.

Legal Re-Construction; The Impact of Empty Column Victory Over Single Candidates in Simultaneous Direct Elections of Regional Heads as A New Phenomenon of Legal Politics in Indonesia

This study examines the legal re-construction of the victory impact of an empty column over a single candidate as a new phenomenon of legal politics in Makassar City, South Sulawesi, Indonesia. This is a doctrinal normative legal research, which uses the analytical, explorative, explanatory, and qualitative analysis techniques. The result showed that legal reconstruction needs to be carried out on disputes, policies of single candidate pairs and empty columns, nomination requirements and political party support for candidates. The legal construction also needs to be conducted on the phrase "next election," the emptiness of definitive city government leaders, postponement and legal uncertainty, establishment of Provisional Acts (Pjs), as well as the loss of the constitutional rights of communities and regions.. Legal reconstruction also needs to be carried out through the political management of post-conflict local elections with changes in legal policies Law No.10 of 2016, PKPU No.13 of 2018, Minister of Home Affairs Regulation (Permendagri) No. 1 of 2018.

Young democrats, critical citizens and protest voters: studying the profiles of movement party supporters

AbstractThe rise of movement parties in Europe has disrupted traditional notions of party politics, introducing new avenues for citizen engagement and political mobilisation. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the electorate of movement parties, using nationally representative survey data from six European countries. We identify four types of movement parties: green/left-libertarian, far-right, eclectic, and centrist, and examine the distinct profiles of their voters. The only common characteristic we find across movement party supporters is their belief in the influence of protests. We argue that green/left-libertarian voters embody a generational gap in political participation, as they utilise both electoral and non-electoral engagement to express their post-industrial demands. Far-right voters are distinguished by their discontent with the democratic system and political elites, following the pattern of what others have referred to as 'protest voters'. Meanwhile, centrist and eclectic voters embody the profile of 'critical citizens', who support the democratic system but are dissatisfied with its current functioning. While we see movement parties as a genuine innovation in the internal structuring of party organisations, our study calls into question the utility of this concept when seeking to understand the behaviour of their electorate. We emphasise the importance of recognising the diverse motivations behind movement party support, enriching our understanding of the changing dynamics of party politics in Europe.

The Effects of Import Shocks, Electoral Institutions, and Radical Party Competition on Legislator Ideology: Evidence from France

Abstract Across advanced industrialized democracies, the political centre is collapsing as politicians on the far right and far left enjoy increasing electoral success. Recent research links import shocks to voter support for far-right parties. However, we know comparatively less about how these shocks impact individual legislator ideology, especially that of mainstream politicians. Do import shocks drive economic or cultural ideological shifts among mainstream legislators? If so, to what extent do local competitive contexts shape these shifts? Using a dataset of French Senate roll call votes, we find that localized increases in import exposure moves elite ideology to the left economically; this is magnified in departments with majoritarian electoral systems. We show that legislators shift their cultural positions in response to import shocks, but only when faced with extremist political competitors focused on cultural issues. Our results suggest the value of attending to how political and economic geography intersect to shape elite policy positions.