Party Support Research Articles

Do independents like to party? The rise in independent and minor party MPs in Australian parliaments since 1970

ABSTRACT Commentary about the successes of the ‘Teals’ and the Greens in the 2022 federal election echoes scholarship regarding the ongoing fragmentation of major party support, weakening partisan alignment, and the rise of post-materialist voting since the 1970s. To explore the dynamics behind this trend, we construct a novel dataset of independent and minor party members of parliament elected to single-member electorates in Australian lower houses since 1970, empirically exploring the circumstances through which these candidates are successful. Tracing the rise of independent and minor party MPs, we observe that initially, these MPs often emerged through lower levels of government and outside organised politics, while, more recently they have succeeded through party structures and what we term ‘party-like’ forms of organisation. Our results suggest that political fragmentation is increasingly a challenge to conservative politics, especially via the rise of organised party-like independents, representing a realignment from the twentieth century.

Challenging Democracy: Understanding How the Ideas of Populists and Disenchanted Citizens Align

This thematic issue proceeds from the idea that, despite extensive research, we do not know enough about the alternatives to representative party democracy that people disenchanted with democracy and populists envision apart from greater citizen involvement. Citizens’ potential preferences seem to range from stealth democracy and decision-making by apolitical experts to deliberative mechanisms and referenda. The picture is equally blurred when it comes to the views of populist actors themselves. Research suggests that their calls for referendums diminish over time and that they reject deliberative bodies outright. This thematic issue reassesses our understanding of the extent to which populists’ and citizens’ ideas and the alternatives they propose coincide and argues for a wider dissemination of relevant research that explores these shortcomings. The articles presented explore these points by featuring conceptually and/or methodologically innovative contributions that address issues such as the mismatch between populists and citizens in terms of democratic alternatives, (dis)satisfaction with populist parties in public office, the preferences of distinct subgroups as well as the role of political emotions among populist party supporters.

The Anxious Middle Class: Risk of Downward Mobility and Support for Radical Right Parties across Western Europe

The Anxious Middle Class: Risk of Downward Mobility and Support for Radical Right Parties across Western Europe

Genesis of Polish Populism (1945–2023) and its Impact on the Transformation and Support of “Law and Justice”

The article analyzes the formation of Polish populism at the present stage represented by the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS, Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc) using the theoretical apparatus of neoinstitutionalism, as well as historical and comparative approaches. Both general features of populism and those specific to Eastern Europe are considered. The process of development of ideas, practices and results contributing to the rooting of populist values and a picture of the world in the Polish public consciousness is also studied within the framework of the path dependence concept. The final part describes the essential guidelines, ideology, program and electorate of PiS. The party is compared with its main competitor Civic Platform (PO, Platforma Obywatelska) in terms of its strategy, and specific results of PiS rule are also mentioned. Poland is characterized by weak and unstable connections between voters and parties, which leads to the absence of a stable social base and support for parties and, in turn, leads to their constant fragmentation and high party volatility. Parties in Poland have historically been organizations with the lowest level of public trust. In such a context, parties that can truly attract voters will immediately find themselves in a more advantageous position. One of the most suitable methods is therefore simple, often primitive slogans, intransigence of discourse, aggressive rhetoric, unrealistic promises of universal abundance, sharp opposition to everyone else and the rejection of democratic norms of representation in favor of strong leadership, that is, classic populism.

The Mosque Nearby: Visible Minorities and Far-Right Support in France

How is support for right-wing populist parties affected by exposure to Muslim visibility? Using an original database on French mosques, this article analyzes the relationship between the presence of mosques and support for the Front National at the polling station level in the late 2000s. It finds that the propensity to vote for the Front National increases in polling stations up to intermediate distances from mosques and then decreases, suggesting a spatial mechanism known as the halo effect. The analysis also shows that larger mosques and those with minarets are associated with an accentuated halo effect, suggesting the importance of the salience of minority groups rather than their relative size in influencing political behavior.

Conditional single-issue political entrepreneurship: The impact of education and attitudinal predictors on support for the Finns Party

This study explores support for the populist far-right Finns Party in the 2023 Finnish parliamentary election. In the 2023 election, the Finns Party obtained their largest historical vote share, which led to the party's inclusion in the current coalition government. Utilizing an original, nationally representative survey, we find that Finns Party support can mainly be explained by political entrepreneurship and the attraction of voters holding anti-immigrant sentiment. While we find that other attitudes had some relationship with Finns Party support, the substantive impact of these attitudes is far less substantial than are attitudes towards immigrants. Further, we find that the impact of attitudes towards immigrants and Finns Party vote choice intention is conditional on education level. Attitudes towards immigrants have a more limited impact on Finns Party support for respondents at higher education levels when compared with those at lower levels. The findings hold significance for the broader literature on populist parties, demonstrating that education can significantly diminish the translation of anti-immigration attitudes into support for far-right parties.

Affective Polarization Among Radical‐Right Supporters: Dislike Differentiation and Democratic Support

Partisan affective polarization describes the extent to which different partisans like or dislike each other. In Europe, affective dislike is strongest towards the radical-right, as mainstream voters tend to hold particularly negative affect towards radical-right supporters. This is an important pattern given the recent high levels of support for radical-right parties, for example in the Netherlands, France, and Italy. However, the perspective of radical-right supporters themselves has been largely neglected in existing work. To remedy this, we examine how radical-right supporters feel towards supporters of mainstream parties. We develop a new concept, dislike differentiation, which refers to the extent to which radical-right supporters differentiate in the dislike they harbor towards mainstream parties. We use two new studies that sampled 2,628 radical-right supporters in nine European polities. We find that some supporters reject all mainstream parties, whereas others follow more typical patterns of political competition along ideological lines. Dislike differentiation among radical-right supporters is linked to key socio-political phenomena, including party attachment, ideological extremism, satisfaction with democracy, and political tolerance. By creating a novel typology combining out-party dislike and dislike differentiation, we show that anti-system radical-right supporters, characterized by high out-party dislike and low dislike differentiation, are the least supportive of democracy. By centering our analysis on those voters that receive and radiate the highest levels of negative affect, we advance knowledge on what fosters polarized attitudes and intolerance in Europe’s multiparty systems in times when the electoral popularity of the radical-right is surging.

The theory of democratic integration

The outcome of the 2024 European Parliament elections highlights the need for the EU to underpin its functioning as a European democracy with a proper political theory. This article introduces the theory of democratic integration as a political philosophy of the EU. It aims to provide the EU with a philosophical foundation by analysing its evolution as a deviation from the Westphalian system of international relations and its doctrine of absolute sovereignty. The article finds that the EU is succeeding in creating a new democratic home for its citizens and its member states. In times of increasing support for parties which promote national sovereignty as the recipe for the future and which consequently call for the dismantling of the European Parliament and the deconstruction of EU democracy, the theory will empower the Union to defend its constitutional achievements and prevent it from backsliding into an undemocratic organisation of illiberal states.

Monitoring the short-term biological response of environmental noise in real-life sleep conditions

A protocol is developed to measure the short-term biological response to environmental noise during sleep. It is designed as potential component in the Human Biomonitoring Program of the Flemish Government. The focus of the protocol is the user-friendliness and the use of non-invasive but accurate technology. The sensor boxes are deployed without third party support using a simple set of instructions. The setup includes simultaneous indoor and outdoor spectral noise monitoring to discriminate between indoor and outdoor disturbances. Actimetry and heart rate are monitored on-torso to detect potential arousals and awakenings. The data analysis is performed in a 10 second resolution and is based on the heart rate variability (HRV) of nine teenage subjects. The bedroom insulation is included using the difference between outdoor and indoor noise. The relevant biomarker is the HF/LF ratio, a HRV parameter related to the activation of the autonomous nervous system, shows significant correlation with the environmental noise. Peak emergence and augmented background noise also result in enhanced activation of the autonomous nervous system. This novel approach delivers an objective measure of the short-term biological effect of noise during sleep in real-life conditions. The affordability and low-invasive design allow large-scale deployment in future health studies.

The Future of Multiracial Democracy: Liberal Democracy in an Age of Immigration

ABSTRACT: Across democracies, there are concerns that immigration poses threats to liberal democracy. The conventional narrative focuses on two threats. First, as migrant inflows and ethnic diversity have risen, so has public support for nativist radical-right parties who are only weakly attached to democracy. Second, migrants themselves adhere to comparatively illiberal positions on a range of issues, with adverse consequences for liberalism. These narratives place the blame on mass publics. By contrast, this essay argues that mainstream political elites are frequently at fault. Even though large popular majorities are wedded to liberal democracy and open to immigration, mainstream parties have consistently adopted rhetoric and campaign strategies that legitimize and empower native and migrant citizens who promote illiberal politics. To the extent that immigration presents risks to liberal democracy, centrist political elites have facilitated and escalated these threats.

The Russia-Ukraine War: An Exploratory Study into the Potential Impact of Cyber Warfare on Asymmetric War Efforts

Purpose: The war in Ukraine brought attention to “new” tactics on the battlefield—namely cyber warfare. It is attracting increased attention from media and civilians, enabling civilians from countries outside of Ukraine to help fight for Ukraine. The impact of cyber warfare on kinetic war efforts is not well understood. Methodology: Secondary data were collected, which included verified reports of cyber interventions in support of either party to the Russian-Ukraine war. Various cyber interventions are discussed in terms of the type of intervention, modus operandi, and potential effect. All data have been published in English by credible sources. The effect of cyber interventions will be analysed to determine their potential impact on states that are party to an asymmetrical war. Findings: Cyber warfare can potentially act as a force multiplier in kinetic efforts through actionable intelligence collected. Currently, the effect of cyber warfare seems to be negligible, as neither party to the Russian-Ukraine war effort has achieved its political ideologies. In fact, the use of drones has brought about an escalation in violence. Implications: A better understanding of cyber interventions and more effective application of these in a kinetic war could potentially aid a nation-state in achieving its ideological objectives faster, thereby reducing the intensity of the negative socioeconomic impact on nation-states not party to the conflict. Current scholarly debates about cyber warfare view the impact of cyber interventions in a kinetic effort as negligible. This article will point to a linchpin that could change the current opinion of scholars.

Peculiarities of the social structure of the electorate of left-wing parties in the EU countries

The article is devoted to the analysis of the political situation in the European Union, focusing on changes in support for left-wing parties in the context of global challenges. Transformations in the electoral preferences of EU citizens caused by economic and political turmoil and international conflicts are considered. The main focus is on the growing popularity of radical left populist parties. The analysis shows that traditional left-wing parties are losing support due to insufficiently radical proposals, which leads to fragmentation of their electorate. Radicalization of political sentiment is seen as a serious challenge, as radical movements are less predictable and can create political instability in the region. In this regard, analysts are faced with the question of possible changes in the political landscape, which is especially important in the context of tense international relations and sanctions pressure on Russia. The author emphasizes the need to understand political changes and forecast their consequences in order to develop effective electoral forecasts. The article considers the main results of the 2024 European Parliament elections, their impact on electoral preferences and changes in the EU political landscape. The theoretical approaches and empirical studies of leading domestic and foreign scholars in the field of studying party systems are analyzed, which allows us to assess current and future trends in European politics. The work also touches upon the issues of uniting left-wing forces in opposition to right-wing parties, as well as possible scenarios for the development of the political situation in the European Parliament and its impact on international relations and interstate interaction.

What drives support for authoritarian populist parties in Eastern and Central Europe?

What drives support for authoritarian populist parties in Eastern and Central Europe?

Environmental protest outcomes in austerity-era neoliberalism: perseverance and politics

ABSTRACT This paper explores environmental protest outcomes during the decade of the 2010s in the UK. In doing so, it presents the results of a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) of all 54 major environmental protest campaigns during the period. The study explores alternative causal conditions relating to a number of strategic and tactical options that environmental movements typically face. It finds that two alternative routes were sufficient for environmental protest campaigns to be successful: perseverance over time, in which longstanding campaigns staged a relatively large number of protest events; and instances where opposition political parties drew on, and supported, the demands of protesters. Interestingly, some of the more contested tactical options, including whether to adopt more or less disruptive methods, were inconclusive in explaining the successful outcome of protest-led campaigns. The article argues that this supports the case for tactical diversity. The findings show how in a context of austerity-era neoliberalism, where the government was (ostensibly) committed to tackling climate change, then protests (regardless of the organisational form or type of protest) proved able to exert effective pressure upon the government and firms, to ensure some degree of concession to the climate movement, provided that the protest campaign was able to persevere over time and/or secure the support of opposition political parties. This suggests a susceptibility, by both the state and firms during austerity-era neoliberalism, to (considerable) popular and political pressure arising from protest, but in the absence of which economic interests would otherwise take priority over environmental concerns.

Long-run trends in partisan polarization of climate policy-relevant attitudes across countries

ABSTRACT We summarize long-run trends in partisan polarization of voters’ climate policy-relevant attitudes across 36 countries and multiple decades (1993–2020). We find substantial growth in partisan polarization of these attitudes in the US, other Anglophone countries and much of Western Europe, but not elsewhere. Comparing Western European to Anglophone countries, partisan polarization is more prominent on different climate policy-relevant attitudes, and primarily involves supporters of different party types. Observed partisan polarization patterns are not well explained by changes in either linkage to economic ideology or levels of general societal disagreement on climate policy-relevant questions. Growing partisan polarization does not generally reflect all partisan groups becoming more accepting of climate reform yet diverging because of differing rates of change. Instead, what disagreements there are on these matters have become increasingly tied to party support. Our findings highlight the increasing difficulty of achieving sustained political consensus for effective climate reform across many countries.

Network Issue Agenda Setting on Facebook: Exploring the Interplay Between Polarized Campaigns and Party Supporters

This study undertook an analysis of network agenda setting during the 2020 U.S. Presidential campaign, focusing on the interactions between the campaigns and their respective supporters within the context of a polarized social media environment. By employing social network analysis techniques to examine issue agendas, the study revealed a relatively weak correlation between the agendas of the campaigns and their affiliated supporters on Facebook. Conversely, it found a notable association between entities sharing the same ideological orientation—party supporters displayed a higher degree of engagement with their own party’s campaign, and vice versa. The implications of these findings, from a theoretical, methodological, and practical standpoint, have been thoroughly discussed.

The role of American intelligence in shaping foreign policy strategies

The aim of this research is to determine the role of intelligence in shaping the U.S foreign policy by comparing the positions of the government and citizens of the state. The research employed a doctrinal approach, a statistical method, a historical method, and a comparative analysis. The conducted research determined that the priorities of U.S foreign policy are based on achieving and maintaining an advantage over competing countries to ensure national security and a safe, free, and prosperous world. The important role of intelligence in achieving such goals is confirmed through the analysis of the budgets of the U.S. Intelligence Community. The analysis found that the increase in funding correlates with the need to intensify intelligence activities during various critical events, primarily related to the activities of competing states. Comparison of the priorities of the U.S government and citizens regarding foreign policy, in which intelligence plays a leading role, revealed certain differences. These include, in particular, the priorities of citizens who are supporters of different parties. The conducted analysis emphasizes the need to take public opinion into account while developing foreign policy. The practical application of the obtained results lies in the possibility of their advocacy by politicians to adapt communication strategies according to the expectations and requests of voters.

Reading the Tea Leaves: Question Wording and Public Support for the Tea Party Movement

The emergence of the Tea Party in 2009 was a pivotal moment in American politics signaling a right-ward shift among Republican Party primary voters that would later help Donald J. Trump secure the Republican nomination for president in 2016. This article looks back in time analyzing public opinion data concerning the Tea Party movement from 2010 to 2011 examining how opinions changed over time. Specifically, two types of questions are used to plot views of the Tea Party over time: those gauging the favorability of, and support for, the movement. Findings show a decline in Tea Party support over time, with support peaking in November of 2010. This study also examines the influence of question wording on opinions of the Tea Party finding that support or favorability toward the Tea Party movement can vary significantly, depending on the options given to respondents. The implications of these results for the Tea Party movement, and the measurement of public opinion, are also explored.

The political effects of intra-EU migration: Evidence from national and European elections in seven countries

This article studies the impact of immigration from Central and Eastern Europe on support for Eurosceptic parties. The analysis covers 30 national and European Parliament elections in seven Western, Northern and Southern European countries (2004 to 2019). For each election, I analyse how the local-level share of the vote for right- and left-wing Eurosceptic parties varies as a function of the levels and changes in the local-level share of Central and Eastern European immigrants from the population, controlling for the influence of relevant demographic, social and economic variables. I find that higher levels of immigration from Central and Eastern Europe are systematically related to higher voting shares cast for right-wing Eurosceptic parties at the local level in all of these countries, net of the influence of non-Western immigration, in elections for the European Parliament and in national elections as well. The effects on left-wing Euroscepticism are heterogeneous: positive in the Netherlands, Austria and Portugal, but negative in Italy, Denmark and Sweden. The effects have not diminished significantly over the past 15 years and are most visible in mid-sized localities.

Spirited away: Access to alcohol and support for the populist radical right

Does the availability of alcohol influence support for radical right-wing parties, and if so, why? Drawing parallels to the UK, where pub closures led to increased support for UKIP, this study investigates similar trends observed in Sweden. Utilizing a novel dataset of over 50,000 alcohol-serving permits and electoral data from 2002 to 2018, the study finds that a reduction in permits is associated with a 3.7% increase in support for the Sweden Democrats (SD). To explain this, it is argued that bar closures politicize alcohol regulation and serve as a symbolic issue linked to the populist radical right. Survey data from over 20,000 respondents reveal that individuals in municipalities with a decreasing number of permits are more likely to support alcohol deregulation policies, and these voters become more likely to support SD. These findings underscore how perceptions of government overregulation drive support for radical right-wing parties.