Party System Research Articles

Political Parties and Electoral Volatility: How (un)stable is the Albanian Electorate?

This paper offers an in-depth analysis of electoral volatility in Albania from 1991 to 2021, a transformative period from a communist regime to a democratic multi-party system. It diverges from Central and Eastern European trends by examining Albania's unique political dynamics and the factors influencing electoral behavior and volatility. Utilizing the Pedersen Index, the study methodically evaluates various determinants impacting party electoral volatility in Albania. The research underscores the significance of high membership rates and robust ground organization within major political parties as key contributors to low volatility levels in Albania's party system, thus providing insight into the intricacies and idiosyncrasies of Albania's political landscape.

The Effects of Personality Traits, Environmental Attitudes, and Demographic Factors on Green Party Support in Canada

Abstract By appealing to public concern over environmental issues, Green parties have emerged to gain secure positions in several party systems. However, in Canada, we know very little about why people support the Green Party. This research note draws upon the Canadian Election Study (CES) to explore the ways in which demographic factors, personality traits and individual environmentalism impact vote choice. Theorizing Green Party support as a form of pro-environmental behaviour, we build a model that tests the impact of demographic factors and personality traits as mediated through environmental attitudes. It finds that, while pro-environmental policy attitudes are the strongest predictor of Green Party support, several demographic factors and personality traits—specifically conscientiousness, openness to experience, agreeableness and extraversion—have an effect.

Explaining interest group position-taking across partisan policy dimensions

ABSTRACT Some interest groups have policy positions on one or more policy dimensions in partisan policy space while others do not. In this paper we examine explanations for differences in interest group position-taking across policy dimensions. While group characteristics are likely to explain parts of such variation in interest group position-taking, we hypothesise that the salience and polarisation among parties and citizens of the respective policy dimension also matter. By utilising novel survey data on interest group positions (within a predefined policy space) in six different countries as well as survey data on citizen and party positions, we investigate interest group position-taking across policy dimensions. The analysis shows that interest groups with more resources, core interests linked to the examined policy dimensions and a connection to the traditional party system are more likely to have policy positions than other groups. Furthermore, we find evidence of groups supplementing citizens and parties in policy space by articulating positions on policy dimensions that the average citizen and party pays less attention to. Moreover, when party polarisation increases on a dimension, greater party salience is negatively associated with group position taking.

Exogenous Shocks and Party System Development: What is the Effect on New Party Entry?

ABSTRACT Since 2020, the world has been officially battling a COVID-19 pandemic. Even countries with established crisis management plans and years of experience in handling political and economic crises, have been shaken. In the midst of the pandemic’s rampant effects, how politicians handle the crisis is of crucial importance to the preservation, development, and protection of nations in the future. Who is in power determines not only the stability, but the political course of countries. Hence, what happens to the party system as a result of an exogenous shock is a question we need to answer. Importantly, we have little evidence on how the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic affected party competition. Building on the party systems literature, we examine the effect of the pandemic on electoral volatility, party system size, and the number of new party contestants. We hypothesise that, in countries where the incumbent government handles the crisis less effectively, electoral volatility tends to be higher, party system size tends to be larger, and more new parties tend to enter the electoral race. Drawing on evidence from national parliamentary elections held by electoral democracies from March 2020 to April 2022, the empirical results support our hypothesis.

Populism's Challenges to Political Parties and Democracy - Taking the United States as an Example

In recent years, with the rise of populism around the world, the traditional party system and democratic system have encountered very serious challenges. This article mainly takes the United States as an example to explore in depth how populism affects American political parties and democratic governance. First, the development history of populism in the United States since the 20th century is analyzed and introduced, focusing on the impact of Trumpism in American politics. Secondly, it mainly explores the impact of populism on the internal structure and policy orientation of the two major political parties, the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, and deeply explores the role of populism in splitting party unity and reshaping party ideology. In addition, it also focuses on the role of populism in democracy from both positive and negative aspects. Finally, this article examines the challenges of American populism to the development of American democratic systems and political parties, including challenges to the electoral process, judicial independence, media freedom and public trust. This article believes that strengthening civic education and promoting party reform can better cope with the impact of populism and enable the healthy development of the democratic system.

Correction to: The conditional effects of party system change on economic growth in Africa

Correction to: The conditional effects of party system change on economic growth in Africa

Partisan Politics in Finland

Abstract Traditionally, the Finnish party system has involved a high level of fragmentation yet remarkable stability, consensual decision-making, ideologically broad government coalitions, and mostly modest levels of polarization between parties or voters. These features suggest a limited effect of the party composition of government on economic policy. However, based on studies on close local elections, parliamentary speech, and party manifestos, we argue that the link between party politics and policy outcomes likely plays a role in Finland. Most analyses have examined the extent to which the characteristics of local politicians within the parties affect policy outcomes. These studies show that occupation, education, experience, competence, and residential location of local politicians strongly affect local policies, indicating that, in general, politics matters for policy. We also discuss how consensual national politics may have contributed to the recent success of the populist challenger Finns Party. As a new major player, the party has emphasized the role of sociocultural issues and especially affective polarization, which represents a considerable paradigm shift from the catch-all party policies typical of Finland for many decades. It is thus possible that the link between politics and policy will become more pronounced in the future, motivating further research.

“Tetranstornation” as retrogression: AMLO’s Mexico beyond alternation

AbstractIn response to the landslide electoral victory by the morena-led coalition in Mexico, I offer a two-part argument for its interpretation. Like bifocal glasses, the seventy-one-year State Party rule offers a far-sighted panorama to question the “transition towards democracy” in Mexico. Against this backdrop, a more detailed focus follows the development of the political leader who slayed the party system for the alternation of power. Together, they present an analytical description of the retrogression within a “post-neoliberal” turn.

Institutionalisation of Party Systems in Post-Communist Countries of Europe: Factors and Problems

Institutionalisation of Party Systems in Post-Communist Countries of Europe: Factors and Problems

Two worlds, one nation? Comparing the political spaces of Flanders and Francophone Belgium

Abstract The transformation of the Belgian party system has unfolded asymmetrically: while conservative and far-right parties have thrived in Flanders, the populist right vote has not (yet) been mobilized in Francophone Belgium. Focusing on the demand side of electoral politics, this article explores whether these disparities on the supply side mirror distinct political dimensions and cleavages in both regions. By using an innovative methodology of (class-specific) multiple correspondence analysis, we find that the Flemish and the Francophone political space are largely alike – both in terms of the composition of their political dimensions as in their cleavage structure. However, we also find that Francophones adhere to a distinctive welfare consensus, which prevents working-class embourgeoisement and likely moderates the electoral fortunes of the far right. Overall, our results challenge the common stereotypes of a ‘conservative Flanders’ and a ‘progressive Wallonia’.

Local roots and rebellion: Constituency connections and legislative behaviour of British MPs, 2010–21

Abstract This study explores the relationship between the local roots of Westminster MPs and parliamentary party discipline, a central principle of the British system of responsible party government. While recently the local base of MPs has attracted increasing academic attention, only little effort has been put into investigating how this might influence the political behaviour of parliamentarians. In order to do so, this study utilizes a comprehensive database on the local base of British parliamentarians, which includes data on all Westminster MPs from 2010 to 2021, supplemented with information on parliamentary dissent. Contrary to theoretical assumptions and existing international studies, localness is shown to have no positive influence on MPs propensity for parliamentary rebellion. This suggests that the increasing recruitment of local candidates does not challenge the traditional functionality of the responsible party system of government, yet nor should localness be seen as a panacea for the perceived representational deficits of British democracy.

Metamorphosis of Turkey’s political landscape: unveiling the evolving party system in the aftermath of the presidential system shift and the 2023 elections

ABSTRACT The May 2023 elections in Turkey—comprising both parliamentary and presidential races—represented a pivotal moment in the country’s political history. These elections provided a crucial evaluation of the hyper-presidential system instituted after the 2017 constitutional transition. This article delves into the impact of the 2023 electoral outcomes on Turkey’s party system within the context of Turkey’s transition to a presidential system. It examines the ramifications of institutional changes, such as the introduction of winner-takes-all dynamics and alliance laws, on party system dynamics. Our findings indicate substantial transformations in key aspects of the party system, including increased polarization, heightened fragmentation, enhanced volatility, and intensified personalization. Through empirical analysis, showcasing the evolving dynamics of these challenges within the Turkish party system and their consequences for both the party system’s structure and the broader political regime, we offer insights into potential future trajectories for Turkey’s political landscape.

Party Cohesion, Congruence, and Foreign Powers: Latin American Views About China and the United States

While Latin America's parties suffer from notoriously incongruent relations between legislators and voters, we use mass and legislator-level surveys to show that many parties’ voters and/or legislators coalesce around a singular view about the United States and China. The data indicate frequent congruence between the two levels, and in most of those cases, attitudes towards both countries are positive. Presuming that policies towards the superpowers are not valence issues, this suggests that attitudes towards the powers do help to structure party politics, although the rivalry between the powers is seldom salient. In explaining the correlates of intra-partisan agreement, we focus on ideology, party system structuration, and economic ties. Among the findings is that because attitudes towards the United States are more likely to polarize the left and right, China has extra potential for growing its support. A warning, however, is that legislators in several rightist parties do share a negative perspective about China.

"We are not pro-Russian, but…". Comparing Communication of Czech ANO Movement and Slovak SMER-SD Regarding the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine.

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 represented a significant change in the geopolitical situation in Central and Eastern Europe, which was almost immediately reflected in the communication of political parties and their leaders. The main aim of this article is to analyse the communication of two populist parties: the Czech ANO movement of billionaire Andrej Babiš and the Slovak SMER-SD, mainly associated with its leader Robert Fico. Although both parties occupy important positions within the party systems of their respective countries and both are considered populist, they use different communication strategies and levels of pro-Russian orientation. The different communication strategies are analysed in the context of the electorate, inter-party relations, the coalition/opposition dichotomy and the personal influence of their leaders.

Assessing electoral coordination: A quasi-experimental design of changes in district magnitude over time

This paper examines the impact of district magnitude, defined as the number of representatives elected per district, on the number of political parties. Conventional wisdom, supported by cross-national and within-country studies, indicates a positive and curvilinear relationship between district magnitude and the number of parties, with diminishing returns in larger-magnitude districts. However, this relationship is complicated by the increasing regionalization of party systems and the distinct socio-economic compositions of districts correlated with district magnitude. To address these limitations and obtain an appropriate counterfactual, we employ a quasi-experimental design using data from Spain, where district magnitude changes by only one seat in some districts and elections. Our findings align with previous research, confirming that the number of electoral parties increases with district magnitude, particularly in low-magnitude districts.

Why path dependence leads to a fossilized Alberta: regionalism and the climate transition in Canada

ABSTRACT Canada is the world’s fourth largest producer of oil and fifth largest producer of natural gas. Yet, the country faces a ‘twin’ challenge in tackling the climate crisis. On the one hand, Canada’s federal climate goals state that it must achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. On the other hand, regionalism stronghold in fossil-producing provinces lead to difficult trade-offs between an ambitious climate transition and reluctant actors supporting the fossil fuel industry. This situation is characterized as ‘fossilized’ petro-provinces by political scientist Angela Carter. This article explores how Alberta, Canada’s largest oil and natural gas producer, became fossilized. The article develops a path dependence argument organized around the role of regionalism in Alberta’s political development. Regionalism is a crucial persistent feature of Alberta to explain its fossilization because it influenced the formation of an interdependence between the government and the industry, a distinct political culture, and a conservative-led party system.

Explaining Party Switching in an Institutionalised Party System: The Case of South Africa

Institutionalised party systems are said to foster stronger party allegiances and fewer switches. However, this expectation is called into question when we observe the case of South Africa. Despite being characterised by a highly institutionalised dominant party system as well as party-centred electoral and candidate selection rules, South Africa has experienced frequent episodes of floor-crossing over time. This article advances an analytical framework that links elites’ vote-seeking and office-seeking incentives to party switching and party system functioning. It posits that as elites strive for (re)selection and (re-)election, they will depart from smaller to larger parties, and this ultimately reinforces the party system of the day. Utilising an original dataset of 5,230 candidates to the National Assembly and the provincial legislatures of South Africa between 1999 and 2019, the study charts the overall rate of party switching and tests hypotheses postulating the effect of party size and candidates’ electoral marginality on the likelihood of switching parties. The analyses reveal that candidates from smaller parties and those who failed to be (re-)elected by the narrowest margin are more likely to switch parties in the next election. Additionally, most candidates who switched parties tended to move to parties that fared better than their original party in the next election; and they switched from parties that either did worse or stayed the same. But we did not find a strong correlation linking party performance to switches. The study highlights the role of intra-party competition in patterns of elite migration and reveals the importance of linking elite behaviour to party system functioning.

The institutionalisation of parliamentary party groups. Towards a concept

ABSTRACT Notable efforts have been made to apply the institutionalisation concept to legislatures, parties and party systems. In contrast, parliamentary party groups (PPGs) were either side-lined or bundled under the concept of institutionalised parliaments and parties, which implies some conceptual confusion. However, PPGs should be treated as distinct topic given their role in stabilising the parliamentary business in all modern assemblies. Encouraging research to close that gap, we introduce a framework to study the institutionalisation of PPGs for which we use illustrations from various polities. We suggest that highly institutionalised groups exhibit stable personnel, coherent legislative behaviour, structural differentiation, well-established procedural routines, and autonomy in terms of policy decision-making, leadership selection, and resources. Also, we examine PPGs as embedded institutions and provide a conceptual map for varying relationships with the institutionalisation of parliaments and parties. Finally, we point to a widely unexplored field for comparative research including investigations on democratisation.

Electoral rules and the two-party system: A methodological inquiry with reference to Duverger’s law

The law of Duverger posits that the single-member plurality electoral system favours the two-party system. The empirical tests of Duvergerian effects often rely on the effective number of parties as the most common measure of party system fragmentation. This study, proceeding from the notion that more focused measures of two-partyness could be of greater utility for this purpose, examines the build-up of two already existing, albeit underused, indices that are intended to operationalize the concept of the two-party system and introduces a new family of party-system indices for the purpose of cross-validation. The quantitative analysis performed on simulated and real-life datasets shows that the measures of two-partyness can improve the methods of inquiry in research on Duvergerian effects, and that some of the indices introduced in this study can serve as useful supplements to the toolkit of political science.

Historical development of political structures in the context of the modern russian-ukrainian war: key vectors

Introduction: The study aims to analyze the evolution of political institutions in Ukraine. Hence, the main objective is to analyze the evolution of political institutions in Ukraine within the framework of the modern Russian-Ukrainian war, with an emphasis on the main vectors of change and their impact on the country's political system. Methods: The research employed content analysis, thematic analysis, and coding to systematically examine relevant scientific literature and other sources on the topic. These methods were applied to identify and categorize Ukraine's political structures' main themes and transformations.Results: The results determined that the most significant changes in the system of development of political structures took place after the Revolution of Dignity and the beginning of the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, which necessitated systemic changes in the political organization of Ukraine. It was also established that Russian aggression influenced active transformations in the political structures of Ukraine, in particular, the modernization of the state apparatus, the growing role of civil society, active international support, decentralization of power, and strengthening of national identity. Conclusions: The conclusions also emphasize that there are challenges related to the crisis of confidence in parliamentarism and the party system. However, the study recognized that the transformations that took place as a result of Russian aggression created new opportunities for the development of the state body and political structures of Ukraine