Party Support Research Articles

Affective polarization in Europe

Abstract Affective polarization, a concept that originated in the USA, has increasingly been studied in Europe’s multi-party systems. This form of polarization refers to the extent to which party supporters dislike one another – or, more technically, to the difference between the positive feelings towards the supporters of one’s own political party and the negative feelings towards the supporters of other parties. Measuring this gap in Europe’s multi-party systems requires researchers to make various important decisions relating to conceptualization and measurement. Often, our focus could instead lie on assessing partisan hostility or negative party affect, which is easier to measure. While recent research on affective polarization in Europe has already taught USA lot, both about affective polarization and about political conflict in Europe, I nevertheless suggest that research in this field faces four challenges, namely developing better measures, more sophisticated theories, clearer accounts of affective polarization’s importance and successful ways of reducing negative party affect, if this is indeed desirable.

Panem et circenses: removing political news to generate electoral support, evidence from Berlusconi's Italy

AbstractThis paper examines the strategic use of public news media – specifically television (TV) – as an instrument of political influence, focusing on Italy's 2011 financial crisis under Berlusconi's premiership. Using an original large corpus of over 20,000 hours of televised news transcripts and a quasi-experimental design, we investigate how political influence altered media coverage and, subsequently, public opinion and electoral outcomes. Our difference-in-differences analysis, complemented by unsupervised text scaling of news content, reveals a significant shift from “hard” political news to “soft” news on public TV during Berlusconi's tenure. Findings suggest a deliberate reduction in hard news coverage by an average of 107 seconds daily, which significantly increased voter support for Berlusconi's party. In the conclusions, we discuss the broader implications of our findings for media independence in Western democracies amid the emergence of artificial intelligence-generated news contents and the prevalence of algorithmically tailored news feeds.

PERSEPSI MASYARAKAT TENTANG MENAFSIRKAN ARAH POLITIK DAN KEBIJAKAN PUBLIK

In the context of interpreting political direction, individuals are often concerned with several key factors:Public Policy: The interpretation of political direction is often related to the analysis of public policies proposed, passed or enacted by the government. This includes policies in areas such as the economy, education, health, environment and security.Political Trends: Individuals also pay attention to long-term political trends, including shifts in political ideology, support for specific political parties, and electoral dynamics.Political Leadership: Interpretation of political direction also includes analysis of political leadership, including leadership style, proposed policies and responses to key issues. Social and Economic Context: The social and economic context also plays an important role in the interpretation of political direction. Individuals consider factors such as unemployment rates, economic inequality, changing demographics and social tensions. Community Involvement: People's involvement in the political process, including participation in elections, protests, and social movements, is also a factor considered in the interpretation of political direction. This research is a qualitative approach research with descriptive mode data type, which seeks to present objective facts in accordance with the conditions that occurred at the time the research was conducted. Qualitative descriptive research seeks to describe all existing symptoms or circumstances, namely the state of the symptoms according to what they are at the time the research was conducted. Conclusions about community perceptions of interpretations of political direction and public policy Communities have a variety of views and interpretations of political direction and public policy. Factors such as cultural, social, economic and educational backgrounds can influence the way people see and understand government measures.

Does being ‘left behind’ corrode government legitimacy? Tax morale and economic stress

By now we are familiar with studies which tie being ‘left behind’ to voter support for populist or other extreme views. In the UK case, this is seen in support for Brexit but can also apply to support of parties such as UKIP (e.g. Bolet, 2021; Ford and Goodwin, 2014). Comparative studies show that electoral support for populist parties in part reflects lowered trust in mainstream politics (e.g. Geurkink et al., 2020; Keefer et al., 2021; Mauk, 2020), which is seen as a behavioural indicator of slipping legitimacy. Political support for populist movements is interpreted as declining legitimacy of existing governments, and that decline is seen as being tied to economic stress and the ‘left behind’ areas. In this article, we ask whether economics stresses also have impact upon another and possibly more direct measure of government legitimacy – tax morale.

Does Populism Fuel Affective Polarization? An Individual-Level Panel Data Analysis

Populism and affective polarization speak of a bisected society, and scholars have linked them at the party level. While the relationship between populism and affective polarization can be reciprocal, this article leverages panel data to delve into the causal relationship between populism and affective polarization. First, I posit individuals who become identified with populist parties will hold higher levels of affective polarization. Second, I expect increases in levels of populist attitudes to heighten affective polarization, and this is explained by both the increase of affect towards the ingroup and the decrease of affect towards the outgroup. Using nine waves of a panel survey, results show the importance of differentiating between measures of populism at the individual level, as the increase in populist attitudes appears to fuel affective polarization, symmetrically increasing affect towards the ingroup and decreasing affect towards the outgroup, while the effect of becoming a populist party supporter is more nuanced, as it is different for populist left and right parties.

Analisis Budaya Patriarki dalam Partisipasi Politik Perempuan: Studi Kasus Pemilihan Kepala Daerah Tahun 2005-2020 di Kota Depok

Patriarchal culture creates gender stereotypes, limited access to political networks, and a social stigma for women who want to be involved in political activities. The gender gap is also evident in political representation where women hold a smaller percentage of political positions than men. The city of Depok, as a buffer zone for the capital city, is still thick with this culture, as evidenced by the minimal participation of women in regional elections from year to year. This study will analyze the obstacles to women's political participation in Indonesia caused by patriarchal culture. The case study used is the 2005-2020 Pilkada in Depok City. This research is a qualitative - explanatory research using observation and literature studies to find a deeper understanding of the problems being faced. This study uses three main theories, namely the theory of patriarchy, political participation, and gender stereotypes. From the data that has been analyzed, the main cause of the low political participation of women in the Pilkada in Depok City from 2005-2020 is the strong patriarchal culture. Several factors cause the patriarchal culture to continue to develop in Depok City, namely gender stereotypes, low political education, double burden, and weak political party support for women during elections. This study recommends policy interventions in efforts to increase the level of education for women such as increasing women's representation in political parties, increasing the level of education for women, and empowering women in various sectors such as entrepreneurship, health, and so on to eliminate patriarchal culture and increase women's political participation in Indonesia.

Political polarization may affect attitudes towards vaccination. An analysis based on the European Social Survey data from 23 countries.

Political polarization may result in increased confirmation bias, strengthening of disinformation mechanisms or policy distortion. This raises the question whether it may influence the vaccination programmes. This study investigates the relationship between the level of political polarization and coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine behaviour and vaccine acceptance. In our study, we use the Partisan Polarization Index (PPI). The PPI aims to measure the gap between satisfaction with the government expressed by supporters of the ruling parties and that expressed by supporters of the opposition parties. We use the data from the latest round of the European Social Service from 23 countries. The effect of the PPI on the variability of vaccination declarations and intent across countries was verified based on a linear regression model. The linear regression score for 23 countries revealed a statistically significant relationship between the vaccination variable and the level of political polarization. The model explains the variability in the vaccination levels based on the PPI in a given country at 38.6%. Political polarization can contribute to shaping negative attitudes towards vaccination through policy distortion, undermining the effectiveness of compliance against regulation, undermining trust in science and increasing the public's susceptibility to conspiracy theories.

When the tables turn: Parties in power, losers’ consent, and institutional trust in Taiwan

How does vote choice and partisanship affect institutional trust in Taiwan? While the literature tackles institutional trust in democracies, analyses often focus on only one time period with aggregate measures of trust. Data from two waves from the Asian Barometer finds evidence consistent with losers’ consent of trust in electoral institutions corresponding with party support and vote choice, factors that remain after controlling for trust in non-electoral institutions and generalized trust. However, these factors do not seem to affect overall satisfaction with democracy, suggesting the public differentiates between support for the ideal of democracy and its constituent parts.

Legal Re-Construction; The Impact of Empty Column Victory Over Single Candidates in Simultaneous Direct Elections of Regional Heads as A New Phenomenon of Legal Politics in Indonesia

This study examines the legal re-construction of the victory impact of an empty column over a single candidate as a new phenomenon of legal politics in Makassar City, South Sulawesi, Indonesia. This is a doctrinal normative legal research, which uses the analytical, explorative, explanatory, and qualitative analysis techniques. The result showed that legal reconstruction needs to be carried out on disputes, policies of single candidate pairs and empty columns, nomination requirements and political party support for candidates. The legal construction also needs to be conducted on the phrase "next election," the emptiness of definitive city government leaders, postponement and legal uncertainty, establishment of Provisional Acts (Pjs), as well as the loss of the constitutional rights of communities and regions.. Legal reconstruction also needs to be carried out through the political management of post-conflict local elections with changes in legal policies Law No.10 of 2016, PKPU No.13 of 2018, Minister of Home Affairs Regulation (Permendagri) No. 1 of 2018.

Young democrats, critical citizens and protest voters: studying the profiles of movement party supporters

AbstractThe rise of movement parties in Europe has disrupted traditional notions of party politics, introducing new avenues for citizen engagement and political mobilisation. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the electorate of movement parties, using nationally representative survey data from six European countries. We identify four types of movement parties: green/left-libertarian, far-right, eclectic, and centrist, and examine the distinct profiles of their voters. The only common characteristic we find across movement party supporters is their belief in the influence of protests. We argue that green/left-libertarian voters embody a generational gap in political participation, as they utilise both electoral and non-electoral engagement to express their post-industrial demands. Far-right voters are distinguished by their discontent with the democratic system and political elites, following the pattern of what others have referred to as 'protest voters'. Meanwhile, centrist and eclectic voters embody the profile of 'critical citizens', who support the democratic system but are dissatisfied with its current functioning. While we see movement parties as a genuine innovation in the internal structuring of party organisations, our study calls into question the utility of this concept when seeking to understand the behaviour of their electorate. We emphasise the importance of recognising the diverse motivations behind movement party support, enriching our understanding of the changing dynamics of party politics in Europe.

The Effects of Import Shocks, Electoral Institutions, and Radical Party Competition on Legislator Ideology: Evidence from France

Abstract Across advanced industrialized democracies, the political centre is collapsing as politicians on the far right and far left enjoy increasing electoral success. Recent research links import shocks to voter support for far-right parties. However, we know comparatively less about how these shocks impact individual legislator ideology, especially that of mainstream politicians. Do import shocks drive economic or cultural ideological shifts among mainstream legislators? If so, to what extent do local competitive contexts shape these shifts? Using a dataset of French Senate roll call votes, we find that localized increases in import exposure moves elite ideology to the left economically; this is magnified in departments with majoritarian electoral systems. We show that legislators shift their cultural positions in response to import shocks, but only when faced with extremist political competitors focused on cultural issues. Our results suggest the value of attending to how political and economic geography intersect to shape elite policy positions.

Local party members’ views are associated, but not completely congruent, with local constituency opinion

Do local political party members reflect the views of voters in their constituencies? Since candidate selection by local party members is the most common form of candidate selection in the United Kingdom, it is important to understand local party members’ views, and how those views relate to views in the local area. We investigate the degree to which individual members’ views match local opinion by combining the results of a large-scale survey of party members in the United Kingdom with estimates of local opinion created using multilevel regression and post-stratification. We find that individual party members’ views are moderately to strongly associated with local opinion on both left-right and liberty-authority dimensions. Even so, party members are not entirely congruent with opinion in the local area, having opinions which are either to the left or right of voters in their local area, and which are uniformly more liberal than party supporters.

Dimensions of disagreement in EU affairs: is parliamentary opposition driven by left-right or European integration contestation?

This study provides new insights into how the EU dimension relates to the left-right dimension in national politics. It does so by examining to what extent parties’ oppositional behaviour in EU affairs in parliament is a function of their distance from the government, other parties, the voters and party supporters on the EU dimension and the left-right dimension, respectively. The results suggest that oppositional behaviour is determined by two parallel dynamics: when expressing opposition, political parties are receptive both to the positions of the government and other parties on the EU dimension, and to the positions of voters and supporters on the left-right dimension. The results of the study thus indicate that the politicisation of EU affairs in national parliaments primarily is an elite phenomenon. In their relation to the voters and supporters, parties still principally navigate along the traditional left-right dimension.

Understanding Support for Municipal Political Parties: Evidence from Canada.

The province of Ontario, Canada, has a longstanding history of non-partisanship in municipal elections. In this distinctive context, we report results on citizen attitudes toward municipal partisanship using a survey of eligible voters in Canada's most populous province. Using a mixed-methods approach, we focus on three interrelated research questions. First, how much does citizen support for municipal parties depend on the type of party under consideration? Second, what reasons do citizens provide for their preference for either municipal political parties or independents? Finally, what are the correlates of support for municipal parties? We find little support for municipal political parties, and that many voters have sophisticated reasons for preferring either independents or parties. We also identify several factors associated with support for parties. These results provide an in-depth picture of attitudes on municipal partisanship in Ontario, and suggest that public opinion may provide an overlooked mechanism that maintains Ontario's non-partisanship.

The imbalanced effect of politicization: How EU politicization favours Eurosceptic parties

This article investigates how the systemic politicization of the EU is associated with support for different political parties. We argue that, while politicization involves actions by both Eurosceptic and Europhile parties, it does not affect parties at both extremes of the continuum in the same way. To investigate these differentiated effects, we leverage data from the European Elections Study and the Chapel Hill expert survey covering two decades (1999 to 2019). The evidence supports the hypothesis that, when it comes to voters’ preferences, politicization strongly favours Eurosceptic parties. We conclude that the systemic politicization of European issues is thus a one-way street leading to the reinforcement of the constraining dissensus on the EU.

Political expectations and electoral responses to wind farm development in Sweden

Wind energy expansion has influenced electoral behavior by decreasing support for incumbents, primarily explained by not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) arguments. However, how does the establishment of wind farms shape electoral behavior when municipal politicians can veto such establishments? Analyzing Sweden, this study shows that voters respond not only by retrospectively evaluating past constructions but also by evaluating parties differently based on their expectations. Our results indicate that parties more likely to approve turbine constructions are punished more than those less expected to do so. Additionally, we find no evidence that the construction of wind turbines influences support for either Green or radical right-wing parties. In conclusion, this study show that the political repercussions of wind farm expansion are multifaceted, influenced by a combination of past actions, future expectations, and the ideological stances of political parties.

Fascist Legacies of Mobilization and Co-Optation: Evidence from Democratic Portugal

Many authoritarian regimes seek to blunt everyday acts of resistance and social mobilization through co-optation rather than adopting riskier tools like outright repression. What are the political imprints of authoritarian-era co-optation after a transition to democracy? We examine this question in Portugal, where rural corporatist institutions known as Casas do Povo sought to co-opt peasants and dismantle worker mobilization in the fascist era. We find conditional effects for the consequences of rural co-optation in Portugal’s restive southern region, where Casas do Povo took on particular importance given ongoing social mobilization over exploitative labor conditions in the countryside. Absent robust co-optation, social mobilization in the fascist era translated into greater support for the left-wing Portuguese Communist Party after democratization and less support for the right. But the electoral legacies of social mobilization are absent where the fascist regime created early Casas do Povo, facilitating co-optation.

Mobilization of shared victimhood in the radical right populist Finns Party supporters’ identity work: A narrative–discursive approach to populist support

AbstractIn the 21st century, populist leaders have created and shaped narratives of threatened nations to foster a sense of shared victimhood and increase electoral appeal. However, an intriguing question has emerged: What roles do these outlined populist discourses of a threatened nation and shared victimhood play in the identity work of populist supporters? This study employs a narrative–discursive approach to analyse 25 in‐depth interviews with radical right populist Finns Party supporters. We investigate how the supporters construct and utilize populist discourses and narratives of lived experiences to legitimize their political support for the Finns Party. Furthermore, we illustrate how the related subject positions enable populist supporters to reproduce and enhance the populist discourse of ‘people's’ victimhood through the actions of ‘others’. This study contributes to the field by demonstrating how populist discourses and narratives of lived experiences can be mobilized into political support for the Finns Party.

Do Chinese Citizens Conceal Opposition to the CCP in Surveys? Evidence from Two Experiments

Abstract Most public opinion research in China uses direct questions to measure support for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and government policies. These direct question surveys routinely find that over 90 per cent of Chinese citizens support the government. From this, scholars conclude that the CCP enjoys genuine legitimacy. In this paper, we present results from two survey experiments in contemporary China that make clear that citizens conceal their opposition to the CCP for fear of repression. When respondents are asked directly, we find, like other scholars, approval ratings for the CCP that exceed 90 per cent. When respondents are asked in the form of list experiments, which confer a greater sense of anonymity, CCP support hovers between 50 per cent and 70 per cent. This represents an upper bound, however, since list experiments may not fully mitigate incentives for preference falsification. The list experiments also suggest that fear of government repression discourages some 40 per cent of Chinese citizens from participating in anti-regime protests. Most broadly, this paper suggests that scholars should stop using direct question surveys to measure political opinions in China.

Labour, the Unions and Proportional Representation

AbstractThe Labour Party's support will likely be crucial to any major change of the voting system in the UK. While Labour has supported first past the post for most of its existence, a resolution was passed at the 2022 party conference calling for Labour to include in its manifesto a commitment to change the voting system to proportional representation after the next election. This resulted from an effective campaign by activists to change the party's policy on electoral reform. The position of the trade unions, often perceived to be conservative on constitutional issues, was particularly important. This article focusses on the campaign to change the opinion of the British trade union movement. It outlines the British trade union movement's historic reservations about electoral reform and then analyses the grassroots effort behind this movement, focussing on the organisation of Make Votes Matter, Labour for a New Democracy, and Politics for the Many. The article concludes by offering insights into the potential long‐term consequences of this campaign and its potential impact on the ideological direction of the Labour Party.