Particle Dispersion Model FLEXPART Research Articles

Pan‐Arctic enhancements of light absorbing aerosol concentrations due to North American boreal forest fires during summer 2004

During summer of 2004, about 2.7 million hectare of boreal forest burned in Alaska, the largest annual area burned on record, and another 3.1 million hectare burned in Canada. This study explores the impact of emissions from these fires on light absorbing aerosol concentration levels, aerosol optical depths (AOD), and albedo at the Arctic stations Barrow (Alaska), Alert (Canada), Summit (Greenland), and Zeppelin/Ny Ålesund on Spitsbergen (Norway). The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was run backward from these sites to identify periods that were influenced by forest fire pollution plumes. It is shown that the fires led to enhanced values of particle light absorption coefficients (σap) at all of these sites. Barrow, about 1000 km away from the fires, was affected by several fire pollution plumes, one leading to spectacularly high 3‐hour mean σap values of up to 32 Mm−1, more than the highest values measured in Arctic Haze. AOD measurements for a wavelength of 500 nm saturated but were estimated at above 4–5 units, unprecedented in the station records. Fire plumes were transported through the atmospheric column over Summit continuously for 2 months, during which all measured AOD values were enhanced, with maxima up to 0.4–0.5 units. Equivalent black carbon concentrations at the surface at Summit were up to 600 ng m−3 during two major episodes, and Alert saw at least one event with enhanced σap values. FLEXPART results show that Zeppelin was located in a relatively unaffected part of the Arctic. Nevertheless, there was a 4‐day period with daily mean σap > 0.3 Mm−1, the strongest episode of the summer half year, and enhanced AOD values. Elevated concentrations of the highly source‐specific compound levoglucosan positively confirmed that biomass burning was the source of the aerosols at Zeppelin. In summary, this paper shows that boreal forest fires can lead to elevated concentrations of light absorbing aerosols throughout the entire Arctic. Enhanced AOD values suggest a substantial impact of these plumes on radiation transmission in the Arctic atmosphere. During the passage of the largest fire plume, a pronounced drop of the albedo of the snow was observed at Summit. We suggest that this is due to the deposition of light absorbing particles on the snow, with further potentially important consequences for the Arctic radiation budget.

An exceptional ozone episode in northern Fennoscandia

Ground-based observations of ozone have been performed at three sites in northern Fennoscandia, Karasjok, Esrange and Pallas. The sites are located in remote, unpolluted areas far away from the European source regions, and thus representing the northern hemispheric background. Events of photochemical episodes are rare. However, on 19 and 20 April 2003 two episodes with unusually high ozone values were measured at these stations. The highest values of 85.4 and 83.5 ppbv were observed at Esrange and Pallas, respectively, on the 20th April. A simultaneous increase of other pollutants, e.g. nitrate, supports the idea that this was an anthropogenic episode to the far north. A third episode was seen on the 21st at Esrange and Pallas but not at Karasjok. Results from a source–receptor analysis with the particle dispersion model FLEXPART show southern continental Europe as the main source of the polluted air masses in connection with the enhanced ozone, whereas in between transport of cleaner air masses from the North-Atlantic took place. The highest ozone peaks measured at Esrange and Pallas can most likely be traced back to transport of pollution from the Iberian peninsula superimposed on pollution transported from the Northern Mediterranean.

Characteristics of atmospheric transport into the Arctic troposphere

The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was used to construct a global data set of 1.4 million continuous trajectories. At the model start, particles were distributed homogeneously in the atmosphere and were then transported for 5.5 years using both resolved winds from European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts analyses and parameterized turbulent and convective transport. On the basis of this data set, a climatology of transport in and to the Arctic was developed. It was found that the time air resides continuously north of 70°N, called its Arctic age, is highest near the surface in the North American sector of the Arctic. North of 80°N and near the surface, the mean Arctic age of air is about 1 week in winter and 2 weeks in summer. It decreases rapidly with altitude to about 3 days in the upper troposphere. In the most isolated regions of the Arctic, air is exposed to continuous darkness for, on average, 10–14 days in December. Transport from the stratosphere to the lower troposphere is much slower in the Arctic than in the middle latitudes. In the central Arctic, for instance, the probability that air near the surface was transported from the stratosphere within 10 days is only about 1% in winter and 0.3% in summer. Air pollution can be transported into the Arctic along three different pathways: low‐level transport followed by ascent in the Arctic, low‐level transport alone, and uplift outside the Arctic, followed by descent in the Arctic. Only this last pathway is frequent for pollution originating from North America and Asia, whereas European pollution can follow all three pathways in winter, and pathways one and three in summer. Sensitivities of Arctic air masses to emissions of air pollutants, based on transport alone, were calculated for times of up to 30 days before the air masses reached the Arctic. They were highest over Siberia and Europe in winter and over the oceans in summer. Using an inventory for anthropogenic black carbon (BC) emissions, it was found that near the surface and for transport timescales of 5 and 10 days, BC source contributions from south Asia are only 1.6% and 10%, respectively, of the corresponding European values, despite much higher emissions in south Asia. Using an inventory for BC emissions from forest fires, BC source contributions to the Arctic, particularly from fires in Siberia, were larger than anthropogenic BC source contributions in summer in years of average burning.

Operational mesoscale atmospheric dispersion prediction using a parallel computing cluster

An operational atmospheric dispersion prediction system is implemented on a cluster supercomputer for Online Emergency Response at the Kalpakkam nuclear site. This numerical system constitutes a parallel version of a nested grid meso-scale meteorological model MM5 coupled to a random walk particle dispersion model FLEXPART. The system provides 48-hour forecast of the local weather and radioactive plume dispersion due to hypothetical airborne releases in a range of 100 km around the site. The parallel code was implemented on different cluster configurations like distributed and shared memory systems. A 16-node dual Xeon distributed memory gigabit ethernet cluster has been found sufficient for operational applications. The runtime of a triple nested domain MM5 is about 4 h for a 24 h forecast. The system had been operated continuously for a few months and results were ported on the IMSc home page.Initial and periodic boundary condition data for MM5 are provided by NCMRWF, New Delhi. An alternative source is found to be NCEP, USA. These two sources provide the input data to the operational models at different spatial and temporal resolutions using different assimilation methods. A comparative study on the results of forecast is presented using these two data sources for present operational use. Improvement is noticed in rainfall forecasts that used NCEP data, probably because of its high spatial and temporal resolution

A case study of pyro-convection using transport model and remote sensing data

Abstract. Summer 2004 saw severe forest fires in Alaska and the Yukon Territory that were mostly triggered by lightning strikes. The area burned (>2.7×106 ha) in the year 2004 was the highest on record to date in Alaska. Pollutant emissions from the fires lead to violation of federal standards for air quality in Fairbanks. This paper studies deep convection events that occurred in the burning regions at the end of June 2004. The convection was likely enhanced by the strong forest fire activity (so-called pyro-convection) and penetrated into the lower stratosphere, up to about 3 km above the tropopause. Emissions from the fires did not only perturb the UT/LS locally, but also regionally. POAM data at the approximate location of Edmonton (53.5° N, 113.5° W) show that the UT/LS aerosol extinction was enhanced by a factor of 4 relative to unperturbed conditions. Simulations with the particle dispersion model FLEXPART with the deep convective transport scheme turned on showed transport of forest fire emissions into the stratosphere, in qualitatively good agreement with the enhancements seen in the POAM data. A corresponding simulation with the deep convection scheme turned off did not result in such deep vertical transport. Lidar measurements at Wisconsin on 30 June also show the presence of substantial aerosol loading in the UT/LS, up to about 13 km. In fact, the FLEXPART results suggest that this aerosol plume originated from the Yukon Territory on 25 June.

A Lagrangian Analysis of the Atmospheric Branch of the Global Water Cycle. Part II: Moisture Transports between Earth’s Ocean Basins and River Catchments

Abstract A diagnostic Lagrangian method to trace the budgets of freshwater fluxes, first described in Part I of this article, is used here to establish source–sink relationships of moisture between earth’s ocean basins and river catchments. Using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART, driven with meteorological analyses, 1.1 million particles, representing the mass of the atmosphere, were tracked over a period of 4 yr. Via diagnosis of the changes of specific humidity along the trajectories, budgets of evaporation minus precipitation (E − P) were determined. For validation purposes, E − P budgets were calculated for 39 river catchments and compared with climatological streamflow data for these rivers. Good agreement (explained variance 87%) was found between the two quantities. The E − P budgets were then tracked forward from all of earth’s ocean basins and backward from the 39 major river catchments for a period of 10 days. As much previous work was done for the Mississippi basin, this basin was chosen for a detailed analysis. Moisture recycling over the continent and moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico were identified as the major sources for precipitation over the Mississippi basin, in quantitative agreement with previous studies. In the remainder of the paper, global statistics for source–sink relationships of moisture between the ocean basins and river catchments are presented. They show, for instance, the evaporative capacity of monsoonal flows for precipitation over the Ganges and Niger catchments, and the transport of moisture from both hemispheres to supply the Amazon’s precipitation. In contrast, precipitation in northern Eurasia draws its moisture mainly via recycling over the continent. The atmospheric transport of moisture between different ocean basins was also investigated. It was found that transport of air from the North Pacific produces net evaporation over the North Atlantic, but not vice versa. This helps to explain why the sea surface salinity is higher in the North Atlantic than in the North Pacific, a difference thought to be an important driver of the oceans’ thermohaline circulation. Finally, limitations of the method are discussed and possible future developments are outlined.

Technical note: The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART version 6.2

Abstract. The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was originally (about 8 years ago) designed for calculating the long-range and mesoscale dispersion of air pollutants from point sources, such as after an accident in a nuclear power plant. In the meantime FLEXPART has evolved into a comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport modeling and analysis. Its application fields were extended from air pollution studies to other topics where atmospheric transport plays a role (e.g., exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere, or the global water cycle). It has evolved into a true community model that is now being used by at least 25 groups from 14 different countries and is seeing both operational and research applications. A user manual has been kept actual over the years and was distributed over an internet page along with the model's source code. In this note we provide a citeable technical description of FLEXPART's latest version (6.2).

A simulation study of dispersion of air borne radionuclides from a nuclear power plant under a hypothetical accidental scenario at a tropical coastal site

Meteorological condition in coastal regions is diurnally variable and spatially heterogeneous due to complex topography, land–sea interface, etc. A wide range of dispersion conditions is possible on a given day in the coastal regions. In case of inadvertent accidental situations, though unlikely, it would be necessary to examine the potentially severe case among different dynamically occurring local atmospheric conditions for dispersion and its range of impact around a nuclear power plant for safety analysis. In this context, dispersion of air borne radioactive effluents during a hypothetical accidental scenario from a proposed prototype fast breeder reactor (PFBR) at an Indian coastal site, Kalpakkam, is simulated using a 3-D meso-scale atmospheric model MM5 and a random walk particle dispersion model FLEXPART. A simulation carried out for a typical summer day predicted the development of land–sea breeze circulation and thermal internal boundary layer (TIBL) formation, which have been confirmed by meteorological observations. Analysis of dose distribution shows that the maximum dose for releases from a 100 m stack occurs at two places within 4 km distance during sea breeze/TIBL fumigation hours. Maximum dose also occurred during nighttime stable conditions. Results indicate that, on the day of present study, the highest concentrations occurred during periods of TIBL fumigation rather than during stable atmospheric conditions. Further, the area of impact (plume width at the surface) spreads up to a down wind distance of 4 km during fumigation condition. Simulation over a range of 25 km has shown turning of plume at the incidence of sea breeze circulation and two different dispersion patterns across the sea breeze front. These results are significant in comparison to the expected pattern shown by Gaussian plume model used for routine analysis.

Unusually high levels of PAN and ozone over Berlin, Germany, during nighttime on August 7, 1998

Abstract During the BERLIOZ field campaign unusually high levels of ozone (88 ppbv) and PAN (2.5 ppbv) were detected at the Frohnau Tower just north of Berlin, Germany, in the night from 6 to 7 August 1998. In these air masses the formation of PAN was in particular favored compared to ozone due to the enhanced levels of hydrocarbons. Analyses with the particle dispersion model FLEXPART revealed that the pollution had its origin in the Netherlands and the southern United Kingdom about two days before. This event confirms previous findings that regional air quality can substantially be affected by pollution transport from remote regions and that pollution transport should be accounted for in regional air quality standards.

Forecasting for a Lagrangian aircraft campaign

Abstract. A forecast system has been developed in preparation for an upcoming aircraft measurement campaign, where the same air parcels polluted by emissions over North America shall be sampled repeatedly as they leave the continent, during transport over the Atlantic, and upon their arrival over Europe. This paper describes the model system in advance of the campaign, in order to make the flight planners familiar with the novel model output. The aim of a Lagrangian strategy is to infer changes in the chemical composition and aerosol distribution occurring en route by measured upwind/downwind differences. However, guiding aircraft repeatedly into the same polluted air parcels requires careful forecasting, for which no suitable model system exists to date. This paper describes a procedure using both Eulerian-type (i.e. concentration fields) and Lagrangian-type (i.e. trajectories) model output from the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART to predict the best opportunities for a Lagrangian experiment. The best opportunities are defined as being highly polluted air parcels which receive little or no emission input after the first measurement, which experience relatively little mixing, and which are reachable by as many aircraft as possible. For validation the system was applied to the period of the NARE 97 campaign where approximately the same air masses were sampled on different flights. Measured upwind/downwind differences in carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3) decreased significantly as the threshold values used for accepting cases as Lagrangian were tightened. This proves that the model system can successfully identify Lagrangian opportunities.

Lagrangian transport model forecasts and a transport climatology for the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation 2002 (ITCT 2K2) measurement campaign

On the basis of Lagrangian tracer transport simulations this study presents an intercontinental transport climatology and tracer forecasts for the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation 2002 (ITCT 2K2) aircraft measurement campaign, which took place at Monterey, California, in April–May 2002 to measure Asian pollution arriving at the North American West Coast. For the climatology the average transport of an Asian CO tracer was calculated over a time period of 15 years using the particle dispersion model FLEXPART. To determine by how much the transport from Asia to North America during ITCT 2K2 deviated from the climatological mean, the 15‐year average for April and May was compared with the average for April and May 2002 and that for the ITCT 2K2 period. It was found that 8% less Asian CO tracer arrived at the North American West Coast during the ITCT 2K2 period compared to the climatological mean. Below 8‐km altitude, the maximum altitude of the research aircraft, 13% less arrived. Nevertheless, pronounced layers of Asian pollution were measured during 3 of the 13 ITCT 2K2 flights. FLEXPART was also successfully used as a forecasting tool for the flight planning during ITCT 2K2. It provided 3‐day forecasts for three different anthropogenic CO tracers originating from Asia, North America, and Europe. In two case studies the forecast abilities of FLEXPART are analyzed and discussed by comparing the forecasts with measurement data and infrared satellite images. The model forecasts underestimated the measured CO enhancements by about a factor of 4, mainly because of an underestimation of the Asian emissions in the emission inventory and because of biomass‐burning influence that was not modeled. Nevertheless, the intercontinental transport and dispersion of pollution plumes were qualitatively well predicted, and on the basis of the model results the aircraft could successfully be guided into the polluted air masses.

Intercontinental transport of nitrogen oxide pollution plumes

Abstract. We describe the first satellite observation of intercontinental transport of nitrogen oxides emitted by power plants, verified by simulations with a particle tracer model. The analysis of such episodes shows that anthropogenic NOx plumes may influence the atmospheric chemistry thousands of kilometers away from its origin, as well as the ocean they traverse due to nitrogen fertilization. This kind of monitoring became possible by applying an improved algorithm to extract the tropospheric fraction of NO2 from the spectral data coming from the GOME instrument. As an example we show the observation of NO2 in the time period 4--14 May, 1998, from the South African Plateau to Australia which was possible due to favourable weather conditions during that time period which availed the satellite measurement. This episode was also simulated with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART which uses NOx emissions taken from an inventory for industrial emissions in South Africa and is driven with analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Additionally lightning emissions were taken into account by utilizing Lightning Imaging Sensor data. Lightning was found to contribute probably not more than 25% of the resulting concentrations. Both, the measured and simulated emission plume show matching patterns while traversing the Indian Ocean to Australia and show great resemblance to the aerosol and CO2 transport observed by Piketh et al. (2000).

Validation of the lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART against large-scale tracer experiment data

A comprehensive validation of FLEXPART, a recently developed Lagrangian particle dispersion model based on meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, is described in this paper. Measurement data from three large-scale tracer experiments, the Cross-Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX), the Across North America Tracer Experiment (ANATEX) and the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) are used for this purpose. The evaluation is based entirely on comparisons of model results and measurements paired in space and time. It is found that some of the statistical parameters often used for model validation are extremely sensitive to small measurement errors and should not be used in future studies. 40 cases of tracer dispersion are studied, allowing a validation of the model performance under a variety of different meteorological conditions. The model usually performs very well under undisturbed meteorological conditions, but it is less skilful in the presence of fronts. The two ETEX cases reveal the full range of the model’s skill, with the first one being among the best cases studied, and the second one being, by far, the worst. The model performance in terms of the statistical parameters used stays rather constant with time over the periods (up to 117 h) studied here. It is shown that the method used to estimate the concentrations at the receptor locations has a significant effect on the evaluation results. The vertical wind component sometimes has a large influence on the model results, but on the average only a slight improvement over simulations which neglect the vertical wind can be demonstrated. Subgrid variability of mixing heights is important and must be accounted for.