Participation In International Trade Research Articles

Vliyanie Velikogo shelkovogo puti na ekonomicheskoe razvitie Sogdiany

The article presents an analysis, systematization and characterization of the most important directions of Sogdiana development as a result of participation in international trade on the Great Silk Road. These aspects of this historic project are becoming increasingly important as a result of the implementation of the new Chinese initiative “One Belt, One Road”.

Productivity Gains from Trade: Bunching Estimates from Trading Rights in China

Abstract This paper identifies productivity gains from trade by studying the manipulation behavior of firms in response to regulatory policies on international trade in China. Bunching estimates show that participation in international trade increases firm productivity. The productivity gains increase over time, indicating dynamic learning from trading. Further exploration shows no effects on R&D investment, product rationalization and markup. Young firms and nonstate-owned firms (non-SOEs) gain more from participating in trade. Workers share productivity gains through increased wages but not from increased employment.

Unleashing the nexus among export sophistication, digital development, and ecological efficiency: evidence from China

As the critical work of future economic reform in China, the “dual carbon goal” would significantly impact China’s participation in international trade and commodity structure in the future and it will bring considerable challenges to the import and export industries and foreign trade enterprises. This study applies the generalized method of moments (GMM) to empirically assess the effects of export sophistication and digital development on ecological efficiency using 2006–2016 panel data from 30 provinces in China. The empirical findings reveal that there has been a yearly increase in the provincial green total factor productivity (GTFP), which is mainly driven by the promotion of technological level and has a significant regional heterogeneity. Both export sophistication and digital development have a positive impact on promoting ecological efficiency. In general, one unit increase of export sophistication would lead to an increase in GTFP by approximately 0.02–0.03. However, digital development has a negative moderating effect on the influence of sophistication on green total factor productivity, which indicates that the positive impact of export sophistication demonstrates a tendency for the marginal effect to diminish when digital development is sufficient. The reason is that digital development strongly impacts the regional economic pattern in China, and economically developed coastal areas often have a higher level of digital construction and export structure. After clustering, it indicates that while digital development has a stronger favorable influence on increasing GTFP in the western area, export sophistication has a substantial positive impact on GTFP in the eastern region.

Scheduling wagons to unload in bulk cargo ports with uncertain processing times

Optimising operations in bulk cargo ports is of great relevance due to their major participation in international trade. In inbound operations, which are critical to meet due dates, the product typically arrives by train and must be transferred to the stockyard. This process requires several machines and is subject to frequent disruptions leading to uncertain processing times. This work focuses on the scheduling problem of unloading the wagons to the stockyard, approaching both the deterministic and the stochastic versions. For the deterministic problem, we compare three solution approaches: a Mixed Integer Programming model, a Constraint Programming model and a Greedy Randomised algorithm. The selection rule of the latter is evolved by Genetic Programming. The stochastic version is tackled by dispatching rules, also evolved via Genetic Programming. The proposed approaches are validated using real data from a leading company in the mining sector. Results show that the new heuristic presents similar results to the company’s algorithm in a considerably shorter computational time. Moreover, we perform extensive computational experiments to validate the methods on a wide spectrum of randomly generated instances. Finally, as managing uncertainty is fundamental for the effectiveness of these operations, distinct strategies are compared, ranging from purely predictive to completely reactive scheduling. We conclude that re-scheduling with high frequency is the best approach to avoid performance deterioration under schedule disruptions, and using the evolved dispatching rules incur fewer deviations from the original schedule.

Duration of the Membership in the World Trade Organization and Aid for Trade Flows

In examining the effect of membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the amounts of Aid for Trade (AfT) that accrue to developing countries, Lee et al. (2015) (The World Economy, 38, 2015 and 1462) have found that developing country members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) received higher AfT flows than non-WTO developing members. The present paper deepens the analysis by Lee et al. (2015) by investigating the effect of the duration of WTO membership on the amounts of AfT flows that accrue to recipient countries. The duration of membership in the WTO captures both the membership in the WTO and the time spent by a country in the organization. The main argument in this analysis is that the duration of WTO membership matters more than the mere WTO membership for the degree of liberalization in AfT recipient countries’ trade regimes and their participation in international trade, the latter being a critical determinant of the AfT flows supplied by donors. This analysis has relied on a panel dataset of 136 countries over the period from 2002 to 2019, and the two-step generalized method of moments estimator. It has established that countries receive higher AfT flows as their membership duration increases, and the amounts of these resource inflows increase as recipient countries further liberalize their trade regime and further participate in international trade. Additionally, the effect of the duration of WTO membership on total AfT flows depends on donor-countries’ commercial self-interest in recipient countries, including the latter’s economic growth performance and endowment in natural resources.

Russia’s participation in economic globalization: new reversal of tendencies

The article analyzes the most important shifts in the indicators of globalization of the world economy. The author attempts to give a retrospective analysis of Russia's participation in international trade, the movement of capital, labor, knowledge and its monetary and settlement relations with the outside world over the past 3 decades. The author comes to the conclusion that the globalization of the Russian economy in the last 3 decades has brought the country a lot of wins and losses, the balance of which was formed in different ways. But 2022 became after the mid-1990s. another turning point in this process and, along with positive changes (acceleration of import substitution), this turning point carries threats, first of all, a reduction in the inflow of knowledge and capital. The turning point in the globalization of the Russian economy that has emerged in recent years and occurred in 2022 is caused mainly by political, not economic reasons.

China Shock and Female Labor Market Participation in Brazil

Brazil was a successful case of economic growth based on import substitution. Recently, with the China shock, the country’s economy has been exposed to greater competition. In a similar period, an increase of 12 percent in the proportion of formalized female workerstook place in the Brazilian labor market. This paper explores the variation of China Shock between Brazilian local labor markets (or microregions) to identify whether the expansion of Chinese participation in international trade was able to improve the women’s conditions in the Brazilian labor market between 2000 and 2013 measured by the proportion of women formalized, and the wage ratio of female to male workers. It is the first study to assess how the two channels of China shock, the influx of Chinese imports in Brazil, and the increase in Chinese demand for Brazilian exports, affected the outcomes of formal Brazilian women, with data from the Brazilian labor market (RAIS and Census) and information on trade flows between Brazil and China (BACI database).

Road of the least developed countries to sustainable development: Assessing trade participation in the context of the sustainable development goals

AbstractThe least developed countries (LDCs) have been declared a battleground where the success or failure of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will be decided. Being the main instrument of support of LDCs and one of the main means of the implementation of the SDGs, international trade plays a crucial role in this case. Following the importance of trade for the sustainable development of LDCs, the study evaluates the success of selected LDCs in increasing their participation in international trade since the beginning of the new millennium. The participation of LDCs in international trade and the progress they have individually made is explored using 10 criteria, which were processed by the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. The low participation of LDCs in international trade and the almost negligible progress they have made brings legitimate doubts about whether international trade can fulfill its function as a means of implementation of the SDGs in these countries.

English

The objective of this paper is two-fold. On one hand, it seeks to measure the direct effect of cross-border trade on the dynamism of the economies of countries such as Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Morocco and Nigeria from 1971 to 2020. On the other hand, it aims to verify the possibility of establishing a link between the volume of cross-border trade, the dynamics of certain variables (currency, population, income) and the dynamics of growth. The results show that cross-border trade between states in the same zone (ECOWAS) and with different currencies can be beneficial if certain constraints are lifted. Second, the structural variables of income and currency have a positive impact on the ability of cross-border trade to generate more growth, while the population variable has a negative impact on this effect. A series of measures should therefore be adopted in the countries in the sample to enable them to make the most of their participation in international trade.   Key words: Growth, cross-border trade, Sub-Saharan Africa, currency, income, population, ECOWAS.

Impact of the Internet on the exports in ocean-based manufacturing: Firm-level evidence from China

Ocean-based manufacturing (OBM) is closely related to the advancement of information technology, and the dramatic expansion in Internet access necessitates an analysis of the Internet’s impact on marine economy. Combining firm-level manufacturing census data with provincial-level Internet development data, this study is the first to examine how Internet penetration across China’s provinces in the 1999–2007 period influenced exports in OBM. The results indicate that the Internet rollout boosted exports in OBM firms, showing a significant technology-driven effect. Furthermore, the effects of the Internet on micro-behavior differ significantly between OBM and non-OBM firms. For OBM firms, the results suggest that the main mechanism at work is a productivity effect rather than a scale effect, whereas the results for non-OBM firms suggest the opposite. This study also emphasizes the cross-regional and cross-industry heterogeneity in the effects. The heterogeneity analysis supports a greater impetus of the Internet on capital and technology-intensive marine industries and non-state-controlled OBM firms. Moreover, the improvement of Internet penetration can significantly promote participation in international trade by OBM firms in large- and medium-sized cities. Compared with the Bohai Rim Area, the southern regions, including the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, have shown more rapid growth in marine industries due to the Internet rollout.

Disaggregated Impact Analysis of Trade on Growth: The Role of Financial Openness in Nigeria

This paper decomposes and estimates the impact of foreign trade on economic growth and evaluates the relevance of financial openness in the relationship in Nigeria using annual time series data between 1987 and 2020. The key findings of the paper are that although trade positively drives economic growth, the effect is due largely to the contribution of the non-oil export component in the long run and short run. This, however, does not rule out the fact that non-oil import over the long run and short run or the overall value of import in the long run lead to a high economic growth in the economy provided higher degree of financial openness is tolerated. In that, subject to broadening the scope of financial openness, Nigeria’s participation in international trade will result in rapid economic growth both in the long run and short run.

Effect of Structural Economic Vulnerability on the Participation in International Trade

This paper investigates the effect of countries’ structural economic vulnerability (EVI) on their participation in international trade using an unbalanced panel dataset of 118 countries from 1996 to 2018 and the two-step system generalized method of moments estimator. It has revealed several findings. Higher EVI leads to lower participation in international trade, and this negative effect is more pronounced in countries that face higher trade costs. This is particularly the case for landlocked developing countries and the least developed countries. Development aid contributes to dampening the negative effect of EVI on countries’ participation in international trade. Moreover, this negative impact may turn out to be positive for high amounts of development aid. The policy implications of this analysis have been discussed.

Foreign Economic Potential of Ethiopia

Over the past few years, Ethiopia’s economy has been one of the fastest growing in the world. The country has great potential to boost national economy by increasing its participation in international trade and expanding foreign economic relations. The following article is dedicated to the resources, capacity, and opportunities of Ethiopia to produce goods and services, export them, enhance their competitiveness in a foreign market, and thus contribute to socio-economic development of the country. At the beginning of the article the definition of the notion «foreign economic potential», as well as its main characteristics are given. In other sections a detailed overview of key factors that define and form the foreign economic potential of Ethiopia is presented. The author gives a short description of major natural resources of the country, their exploitation and managing, the prospects of hydropower generation and the development of transport infrastructure. The last one is particularly important, as it shows to what extent this landlocked country is integrated into regional and international economic. The government aims at developing transport corridors, establishing an efficient and profitable transport communication system that connects Ethiopia with the port infrastructure of her neighbors by creating national railway network and expanding road lines. The article emphasizes the significance of foreign investors in this process and studies the role of foreign direct investment and its possible impact on economic development. It is also noted that Ethiopia has a huge youth potential as more than 70% of its population is under 30. This human capital, if properly used, may become an economy-boosting asset. Overall, Ethiopia’s priority objective is to reach its full potential and put all the existing ideas and projects into practice.

Impact of Trade Openness on Unemployment: East, South and Southeast Asian Countries (2006 – 2016)

Recent statistics have shown how trade has grown quickly over the last decades in East, South, and Southeast Asian countries. East and Southeast Asian countries have been among the most dynamic participants in international trade. It strongly implies estimating how trade openness effects unemployment in East, South, and Southeast Asian economies. This paper empirically investigates the impacts of measures of trade openness on the unemployment rate in an unbalanced panel context for the period 2006-2016. The analysis focuses on the 16 east, south, and Southeast Asian countries, which are highly ranked in terms of their trade openness: Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Timor-laste, China, Hong Kong, Korea, Japan, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Maldives. The results illustrate the negative relationship between trade openness and the unemployment rate. It has been found that trade openness reduces the unemployment rate significantly.

Internet, Participation in International Trade, and Tax Revenue Instability

This study investigates the effect of the Internet on tax revenue instability (TRI), notably through the international trade channel. It used a sample of 142 countries over the period 1995-2017 and relied primarily on the two-step system generalized method of moments estimator. The findings indicate that greater access to the Internet negatively affects TRI, and this effect works through the trade openness avenue. Especially, countries enjoy a higher negative effect of the Internet on TRI as they experience a greater trade openness. Moreover, Internet access reduces TRI in countries that have experienced a greater extent of tax reform and a greater export product concentration. Therefore, these findings add to the potential benefits of Internet adoption by showing that it could also help stabilize tax revenue, particularly through countries’ participation in international trade.

Embodied CO2 in China’s trade of harvested wood products based on an MRIO model

International trade of goods is also flows of CO2. As a key exporter of harvested wood products (HWPs), China emits a large amount of CO2 to meet the consumption of other countries. This article uses an MRIO model to quantify the embodied CO2 emissions of China’s HWP sectors in international trade based on the WIOD database. China’s CO2 emissions from a production perspective were 121.25 Mt, more than four times those from a consumption perspective. China was a net exporter for embodied CO2 in HWP sectors, while the US was China’s largest importer. In addition, the furniture sector exported more embodied CO2 by international trade than those from the wood and paper sectors. Based on the unbalances of exports and imports, establishing a common international standard to share the responsibility for CO2 emissions is of great urgency in HWP sectors. This article facilitates promoting CO2 emission reduction in HWP sectors and references China’s future participation in international trade and environmental negotiations.

Germany's contribution to global carbon reduction might be underestimated – A new assessment based on scenario analysis with and without trade

The pollution paradise hypothesis states that international trade shifts pollution from developed countries to developing countries, ignoring the positive effects that the participation of developed countries in international trade has on the reduction of carbon emissions. To evaluate a country's contribution to carbon reduction comprehensively, this paper constructed a framework for calculating carbon emissions in two trade scenarios using a multi-regional input-output model. It took Germany as an example, analyzing it at global, national, and sectoral levels. The main findings were as follows: firstly, Germany's contributions to the reduction of emissions may have been underestimated. Without Germany, global embodied CO2 emissions would have increased by 1.53% on average during the research period. Secondly, Germany's participation in international trade contributed to carbon reduction in developing countries, particularly China and Russia. This was due to the lower intensity of Germany's carbon emissions. Finally, at the sectoral level, changes to carbon emissions in different trade scenarios mainly came from “manufacturing” and “electricity, gas and water supplies”. As a result, corresponding policy suggestions were proposed. Studying Germany confirmed that trade protectionism did not benefit the environment and free trade was a better choice. However, more evidence is required to see whether this conclusion would be true for other countries.

RICE CYCLES AND PRICE CYCLES: LOCAL KNOWLEDGE AND GLOBAL TRADE IN KOREA, 1870–1933

This article examines a hitherto neglected aspect of the expansion of international trade in nineteenth-century East Asia—that of how ordinary people understood changing trade patterns. Rather than the political debates and imperial competition that have been the focus of existing research, I use the diary of Sim Wŏn’gwŏn (1850–1933), a farmer from Ulsan, southeastern Korea, to assess how knowledge shaped Sim’s perception of, and response to, the international grain trade. Sim used his diary to develop an economic world view based on his observation of cyclical, seasonal changes in the weather, harvests, and prices. While this enabled Sim to anticipate some fluctuations, the international rice trade posed a challenge as local market prices began to reflect events beyond Sim’s sphere of information. I argue that uneven access to knowledge influenced Sim’s participation in international trade, which in turn cannot be understood without reference to Sim’s existing understanding of the economy.

Dynamics of demand for skills and industrial structure of economy: Developed and developing countries

The paper considers changes in the structure of employment by skill level in countries. Differences in dynamics of the shares of employed with high, medium and low skill levels is traditionally explained by differences in exposure to routine-biased technologies, participation in international trade, exposure to offshoring in the country. The current paper contributes to the literature about the drivers and determinants of changes in structure of employment by skill level considering the industrial structure to be the one of main factors. We assume that the dynamics of employees with high, medium and low skill levels depends on the shares of agriculture, manufacturing and service in the economy. Service industry has the largest share of employment; it is highly competitive and prone to the growing influence of large scale technologies. Using the data of 218 countries for the period 1989–2019 we prove that the greater the service industry in the economy, the higher the share of employed in high skill occupations in absolute value and relative to the share of employed in medium skill occupations. The faster the growth of service industry, the higher the growth rate of the number of employed in medium and high skill occupations. The share of manufacturing in GDP, the value of GDP per capita are the significant determinants of the dependent variables. We highlight substantial differences in the models of the structure of employment by skill level and its dynamics in the developed and developing countries, the oil exporting countries. The research results make it possible to identify and explain trends in structure of employment by skill level by the peculiarities of production in economy.

Посткризисная регионализация глобальных цепочек создания стоимости в стратегиях транснациональных компаний

The current global crisis led to the transformation of global value chains (GVC) in strategies of transnational companies (TNCs). The present study aims to establish a causal relationship between the volatility of the world economy and regionalisation of global value chains. Based on historical analysis and a systemic-functional approach, scattered information about the impact of global value chains on the development of TNC strategies was integrated. Thus, various aspects of TNC activities (their participation in international trade, international capital flows, etc.) were analysed together in order to identify the consequences of regionalisation for the strategic development of such companies. The study revealed that the established international production system carries many risks, which are exacerbated by continuing protectionism in international trade. Under the influence of digitalisation, regionalisation of value chains and partial reshoring of production facilities are the key directions for further development of GVCs. Given the rapid cross-border transmission of exogenous shocks, the stability and sustainability of global value chains will determine their development; however, there is no evidence whether GVCs will lengthen or shorten. The high cost of the complex reconfiguration of GVCs towards regionalisation will lead to only minor changes in their architecture. The redesign will affect only some aspects of activities, in particular, the organisation of work with global suppliers. While the weak integration of developing countries into GVCs will remain, the barriers to internationalisation will be reduced under the influence of digitalisation, creating new opportunities for the incorporation of small business into the international production system. In general, global value chains will still be considered a reliable source to reduce the risks of global operating activities of TNCs. The research results can be used for further theoretical and methodological development of internationalisation strategies.