Parallel Exchange Research Articles

Forecasting exchange rates after 2021 Myanmar coup: Does a parallel market exchange rate matter?

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to evaluate the use of a parallel market mechanism in forecasting the exchange rate of Myanmar Kyat (MMK) after the 2021 Myanmar coup. This paper seeks to answer how an official fixed exchange rate is influenced by a parallel market rate during the military coup. This study demonstrates both the benefit of understanding the impact of a market mechanism and the unique value of leveraging deep learning (DL).Design/methodology/approachThis study applies DL for the first time to forecast the daily official exchange rates and parallel exchange rates, covering the period January 5, 2021–August 22, 2022. This study shows the insights available from forecasting the market exchange rate of MMK in parallel markets that are sensitive to political changes for Myanmar.FindingsAfter the February 2021 military coup in Myanmar, the subsequent use of an untrusted exchange rate system in Myanmar resulted in a sharp gap between the official and the parallel exchange rates. The study shows that the actual forecasting of exchange rates is primarily a reflection of an active market mechanism rather than official exchange rates set by the monetary authorities.Originality/valueNo previous study has forecast the exchange rate of Myanmar since the latest Myanmar coup in 2021. This study contributes crucial predictions, provides a robust technique “deep learning”.

Parallel exchange rate market and macroeconomic performance in Nigeria: SVAR approach

Parallel exchange rate market and macroeconomic performance in Nigeria: SVAR approach

Exchange-rate regime and sectorial profitability in a small open economy: evidence from Argentina’s recent experience

This paper studies, both theoretically and empirically, tradable ( T ) and non-tradable ( N ) profit rates dynamics in a small, price-taker peripheral economy under foreign exchange controls and parallel exchange rates (ER). Using a state-space econometric representation of the Argentine economy for the period 2016–2023, we found evidence to support three main hypotheses derived from the theoretical models. First, an official exchange rate depreciation increases tradable goods profit rates but has no short-term effect on non-tradeable goods profitability. Second, the rise of the parallel exchange rate increases sector N ’s profit rate but has no effect on T ’s. Moreover, this effect depends on the magnitude of the ER gap in a positive, but non-linear way. Third and finally, over sufficient time, both profit rates tend to influence each other, through the action of competition. This means that, eventually, and increase (depreciation) in the official exchange rate exerts its influence on sector N ’s profit rate; while, if sufficiently persistent and big enough, a rise in the financial ER ends up affecting sector T ’s profit rate too.

Open-Source Data Formalization through Model-Based Systems Engineering for Concurrent Preliminary Design of CubeSats

Market trends in the space sector suggest a notable increase in satellite operations and market value for the coming decade. In parallel, there has been a shift in the industrial and academic sectors from traditional Document-Based System Engineering to Model-based systems engineering (MBSE) combined with Concurrent engineering (CE) practices. Due to growing demands, the drivers behind this change have been the need for quicker and more cost-effective design processes. A key challenge in this transition remains to determine how to effectively formalize and exchange data during all design stages and across all discipline-specific tools; as representing systems through models can be a complex endeavor. For instance, during the Preliminary design (PD) phase, the integration of system models with external mathematical models for simulations, analyses, and system budgeting is crucial. The introduction of CubeSats and their standard has partly addressed the question of standardization and has aided in reducing overall development time and costs in the space sector. Nevertheless, questions about how to successfully exchange data endure. This paper focuses on formalizing a CubeSat model for use across various stages of the PD phase. The entire process is conducted with the exclusive use of open-source tools, to facilitate the transparency of data integration across the PD phases, and the overall life cycle of a CubeSat. The paper has two primary outcomes: (i) developing a generic CubeSat model using Systems modeling language (SysML) that includes data storage and visualization through the application of Unified modeling language (UML) stereotypes, streamlining in parallel information exchange for integration with various simulation and analysis tools; (ii) creating an end-to-end use case scenario within the Nanostar software suite (NSS), an open-source framework designed to streamline data exchange across different software during CE sessions. A case study from a theoretical academic space mission concept is presented as the illustration of how to utilize the proposed formalization, and it serves as well as a preliminary validation of the proposed formalization. The proposed formalization positions the CubeSat SysML model as the central data source throughout the design process. It also supports automated trade-off analyses by combining the benefits of SysML with effective data instantiating across all PD study phases.

Analysis of Trade Effects of Parallel Exchange Rate in Nigeria

Aims: The study examines the potency of parallel exchange rates in the movement of international trade in Nigeria. The monetary authorities have embarked on various exchange rate regimes basically because the supply of foreign exchange is not enough to meet the demand. Consequently, a parallel market for exchange rates exists and has become a strong and functional market in the country. But the reason for managing foreign exchange and by extension, introducing various exchange rate regimes was to correct the balance of trade disequilibrium. Yet the balance of trade deteriorates, particularly that of non-oil trade balance. Does the parallel exchange rate contribute to this or does it ameliorate it? Study Design: Descriptive, Correlation, and Regression analysis on time series data. Place and Duration of Study: Sample: Monthly data from January 2007 to December 2022 (2007:1-2022:12) were extracted from the online data repository of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Methodology: The autoregressive distributed lag technique was employed on monthly data between January 2007 and December 2022 (2007:1-2022:12). Results: The result indicates that the short-run dynamics of total exports (total imports) are negatively (positively) and significantly affected by parallel exchange rate. Generally, depreciation of the parallel exchange rate is detrimental to export particularly non-oil exports. Further, depreciation of parallel exchange rate encourages imports and highly persistent in influencing non-oil imports. The J-curve phenomenon breaks down for total balance of trade. However, the J-curve phenomenon cannot be confirmed in the case of oil trade balance because there is no information about the long run effect of parallel exchange rate on oil export due to the non-integration of the model. In the case of non-oil trade balance, the short-run outcome confirms the existence of the J-curve prediction. Conclusion: Following these results, it is recommended among others that government should activate a single market (window) for foreign exchange. Also, the authorities should ensure that importation of non-oil products such as exotic cars by government officials be stemmed.

The possibility of parallel market correction for exchange rate changes according to the ARDL and ARIMA models

The parallel market is an indicator of the prevailing economic situation in the country, and the exchange rate is one of the important tools that link the local economy to the global economy. It also plays an important role in influencing many variables in the Iraqi economy. Therefore, we find that the monetary authority represented by the Central Bank of Iraq is in a continuous monetary struggle across... Over the past few years and up to the present, we have sought to find accurate solutions to the problem of the difference between the official and parallel exchange rates.As the sustainable and growing difference between the two prices leaves the impression on the public of turning towards the foreign currency in their transactions and reducing transactions in the local currency, then the effect is greatly reflected in the Iraqi economic sectors, especially the commercial sector, causing large and sudden changes in price levels, which creates and stimulates a group of complicit traders and researchers. For their personal gains through illegal and fraudulent means, which harms the interests of society as a whole, and this is what we notice. Despite the attempts made by the Central Bank of Iraq, they did not significantly affect the reduction of the difference between the two prices. Therefore, this study attempted to find a predictive approach between the official and parallel exchange rates through the model. According to the standard forecast, we see that the parallel exchange rate will reach (1433.64) per US dollar in the future for the year 2027. Therefore, the Central Bank, the government, and members of society must use all measures necessary to address the imbalances in the exchange rate.

Controllable spin transport in a zigzag silicene nanoribbon embedding multiple rectangular quantum dots

Based on the recursive Green-function method together with Landauer–Büttiker formalism, the spin-dependent transport properties of electrons in a zigzag silicene nanoribbon embedding multiple rectangular quantum dots (QDs) are investigated. According to an analysis of the energy band under the periodically distributed electric field and exchange ferromagnetic field, the parallel exchange field induced by the ferromagnetic insulators eliminates the spin degeneracy, which leads to spin-polarized transport in the proposed structure. By tuning a periodic electric field, we found the relationship between the number of QDs and the splitting peak for conductance in the anti-parallel exchange field. We discover the population of electrons near QDs by calculating the local density of states. The effect of the geometry of periodic QDs on the shift of resonance peak is evaluated. The spin polarization is further explored for various configurations of electric field and exchange field in order to manipulate the spin filtering more effectively. The results provide an avenue to design a controllable spin bandpass filter with the modulation of electric field and exchange field.

Study of phosphate sorption on rendzina soil by heterogeneous isotopic exchange: a biexponential kinetic model

Phosphate sorption on rendzina soil was studied by P-32 heterogeneous isotopic exchange under a steady-state. There are two types of sorbed phosphate, namely strongly and weakly bonded phosphate, the latter being able to exchange with phosphate (H232PO4−) ions in the soil solution. The experimental kinetic data was not fitted by the one exponential kinetic model. Starting from this observation, a new kinetic model is established by assuming two types of weakly bonded phosphate, which take part in the two parallel exchange processes. A biexponential kinetic equation is obtained, which fits the experimental data much better than the one exponential equation.Graphical abstract

Exchange Rate Management Policies Options Towards Strengthening the Naira for Economic Transformation

Close to two decades, the Nigerian Naira has witnessed tremendous fall in its value against major currencies in the global market, giving rise to fast climbing inflation rate and its attendant consequences. Effort by various governments at federal and state levels to remedy the Naira and ensure its stability have shown no signs of fruitfulness. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), at different times, has adopted several measures in this regard including currency devaluation, stringent monetary and fiscal policies, Naira redesign, and the newest, being the effort to collapse into one, the parallel exchange market. These measures, from all indications, were unable to stem the tide of the Naira fall. This study, therefore, adopts a narrative review of economic and finance literature to suggest policy options that could redeem the Naira and strengthens its exchange value in the global market. Inputs from scholarly literature were sought and reviewed around issues such as the working mechanisms of the foreign exchange market, continuous demand and consumption of foreign made goods, and short- and long-term monetary policies. The measures to restore the value of the Naira were then suggested in the paper. Keywords: Exchange rate; Naira fall; Currency Devaluation; Monetary Policy; CBN

Harmony and Hegemony: A Comparative Analysis of Chinese Civilizations through the Ages

This paper embarks on a comprehensive journey through the epochs of Chinese civilizations, unraveling the intricate threads that weave together the tapestry of its rich history. The paper seeks to explore the dynamic evolution of Chinese societies from ancient times to the modern era, employing a comparative lens to illuminate distinctive features, contributions, and challenges across different epochs. Beginning with the cradle of civilization in ancient China, the analysis traverses the early dynasties, scrutinizing their cultural, philosophical, and technological advancements. The imperial era witnesses the flourishing of governance, arts, and innovation under the Han, Tang, and Song Dynasties. Ming and Qing Dynasties, characterized by peaks and declines, unravel tales of maritime exploration, cultural integration, and foreign invasions. The narrative then unfolds into modern China, tracing the transformative phases of the late Qing and Republican era, the seismic shifts brought about by the Communist Revolution, and the subsequent economic reforms leading to China's resurgence on the global stage. A pivotal aspect of this exploration lies in drawing connections between Chinese civilizations and other contemporaneous societies. The course paper delves into parallel developments, interactions, and exchanges with neighboring civilizations, offering a nuanced understanding of China's place in the larger tapestry of human history. As the analysis navigates the continuities and transformations within Chinese culture, it addresses challenges and controversies, including historical disputes, preservation dilemmas, and contemporary debates surrounding the trajectory of Chinese civilizations. In conclusion, this course paper not only serves as a historical retrospective but also offers insights into the intricate interplay of harmony and hegemony within Chinese civilizations. By employing a comparative approach, it aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of the unique features, enduring contributions, and global significance of China's multifaceted cultural journey.

Shifting the paradigm for securing efficient management of exchange rate in Nigeria: A GARCH and BEKK-MGARCH analysis

The influence of foreign exchange on all spheres of any economy is germane to determining its extent of development. Most developing countries have been subjected to managing the integrity of the exchange rate arising from their disadvantageous position in world trade. Nigeria is not an exemption either; this is due to its constant interventions in the foreign exchange market from time to time and by the policy of the existing government in power. However, the interventionist policy framework has been more harmful to Naira as the currency depreciates unabatedly. The pertinent question is whether monetary policy should be the only approach to effective exchange rate management or be combined with fiscal and income policies. Irrespective of the policy choice, the aim, target, and instrument must be complementary without unnecessary disruptions midway, as usually experienced in Nigeria. These inconsistencies have come to bear enormously on the country's exchange rate management. Rather than focusing on the impact of exchange rate volatility on industrial development that could warrant foreign exchange inflows, this paper considers industrialization as an approach to effectively managing exchange rates in Nigeria. This analysis employs a univariate GARCH and BEKK-MGARCH model, using high-frequency monthly time series data from 2000 to 2019, to examine the volatility transmission between the foreign exchange market and the industrial sector. The model estimation uses the Conditional Maximum Likelihood Technique (CMLT). It was discovered that industrial development positively influenced the official market exchange rate compared to the parallel market exchange rate, reducing its volatility. The study thus suggests the vigorous pursuit of foreign exchange earnings and usage policy by earning entities, floating Diaspora bonds, enhancing and encouraging remittances and repatriation of illicit financial outflows to enhance industrialization. This will discourage arbitraging, increasing foreign exchange inflows and stabilizing the economy.

TESTING WEAK-FORM EFFICIENCY FOR THE SAUDI PARALLEL MARKET (NOMU)

Market efficiency is essential for a thriving stock exchange and has a substantial impact on capital investments, particularly in emerging markets. This article examines the weak-form efficiency of Nomu, the Saudi Arabian parallel stock exchange. The study employed various statistical tests on the collected closing values of the Nomu index from May 1, 2019, to May 31, 2023. The return normality and stationarity were investigated using the Jarque-Bera, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. The Variance Ratio (VR) test was used to assess autocorrelation, while the Wald-Wolfowitz Runs (WWR) test was utilized to examine random walk behavior. While the Runs test indicated some randomness, all other tests rejected their null hypotheses, indicating that the Nomu market is inefficient according to the weak-form model. This inefficiency suggests that historical trading data may predict future prices, which could discourage foreign capital inflows, thereby limiting Nomu's growth and investment appeal. The significance of these findings for regulators and policymakers in formulating market regulations and policies aimed at enhancing Nomu's efficiency and investor appeal cannot be overstated. This paper, with its robust methodology, is believed to be the first to evaluate the Nomu market's weak-form efficiency since its inception, contributing to a better understanding of market dynamics in emerging stock exchanges.

Affordability After Subsidy Shift from Parallel Exchange Rate to Insurance: a Retrospective Cross Sectional Study

Background: Due to the imposition of an embargo, Iran adopted a policy of a parallel exchange rate. After three years, the advantages and disadvantages of this policy were revealed empirically. Therefore, the government decided to shift the subsidy to insurance instead of the exchange rate. However, as a result of this plan, the price of medicine rose sharply, and affordability decreased for some sections of society who were not covered by any insurance. This study evaluated the impact of this policy on the affordability of essential medicines listed by the WHO.
 Materials and Methods: The impact of this plan on the affordability of essential medicines was evaluated using the WHO recommended method. A cross-sectional study was conducted to measure the affordability of the national essential medicines list before and after the implementation of the subsidy shift from exchange rate to insurance.
 Results: Despite the benefits of this plan, 17 items in the essential medicine list became unaffordable. The affordability of essential medicines decreased, particularly for uninsured individuals.
 Conclusion: More efforts should be made to cover uninsured people to preserve their access to essential medicines. Although the shift from parallel exchange rate to insurance had several benefits, such as reducing corruption and reverse smuggling, it also decreased the affordability of essential medicines, particula rly for uninsured individuals. Therefore, policymakers should consider implementing measures to ensure that essential medicines remain affordable and accessible to all members of society.

Price Regulation, Exchange Rate Regulation and the Purchasing Power Parity: Empirical Evidence from China

ABSTRACT This paper compiles a market-based price index by accounting for the impact of price regulation. We then use the parallel market exchange rate and market-based price index to test Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) over a more extended period (1952–2019) in China. We find weak evidence support PPP when official data are used. However, we fail to find evidence against PPP when the parallel market exchange rate and the market-based price index are used. Moreover, the half-life of the RMB real exchange rate is approximately one year, substantially lower than the consensus estimates of 3–5 years.

Condensation Performance of Symmetrical and Parallel Capsule Plate Heat Exchangers

Condensation characteristics of symmetrical and parallel capsule plate heat exchangers were experimentally investigated in this article. Plate heat exchangers with parallel capsule corrugation, symmetrical capsule corrugation, and chevron-type corrugation are manufactured as the test sections, each containing 41 plates. Pure steam and water are the hot and cold fluids, respectively. The experiments covered a range of equivalent Reynolds number from 9,000 to 25,000, mass flux of condensing fluid from to 18 to 49 kg/(m2·s), liquid Prandtl number from 1.37 to 1.71, average vapor quality from 0.5 to 0.7, and condensation pressure from 110 to 240 kPa. The correlations of condensation heat transfer coefficient and friction factor of the symmetrical and parallel capsule plate heat exchangers are developed. Compared with chevron-type plate heat exchangers, capsule plate heat exchangers show low friction pressure drop, and 33% higher energy efficiency index for condensation flow and heat transfer. Specifically, the energy efficiency index of the symmetrical capsule plate heat exchanger is 8.6% higher than that of the parallel capsule plate heat exchanger, indicating the superiority of counter-rotating longitudinal vortices over co-rotating longitudinal vortices in condensation, similar to what is observed in single-phase flow and heat transfer.

A study on how efficient measures for secondary district heating system performance can be encouraged by motivational tariffs

BackgroundDistrict Heating (DH) is a technology that provides heating and domestic hot water to buildings and is an important technology for supporting the European energy transition. As such the heating systems increasingly resort to renewable heat sources and waste heat, it is even more important that they operate in the most efficient way possible. DH companies have access to the primary network of which they can impact system performance. To maximize the efficiency of the system, however, it is important that the system at the building level, known as the secondary system, is also efficient; otherwise, overall system efficiency is reduced. To increase system efficiency, return temperatures from the secondary system into the primary system have been targeted through motivational tariffs. There is limited information on how to establish a motivational tariff that motivates the customer to improve both the primary and secondary systems, which is a gap that this paper aims to fill.ResultsIn this paper, the impacts of retrofit actions in secondary systems are assessed through simulations. The identified relevant refurbishment measures to lower the return temperature to the primary system are variable flow pumps, low-temperature radiators, parallel heat exchangers, and a pass-through DHW system. Apart from simulated refurbishments, we also identify that the secondary system sometimes generates excess heat, which is valuable to recover, especially during peak load periods for the primary system. Hence, motivational tariffs targeting secondary system efficiency should also encompass an incentive for the customer to make use of waste heat in the secondary circuit to lower peak demand for the DH system.ConclusionsTo date, the most commonly used parameters introduced to customers are linked to the flow of water through the customer’s asset and the bonus malus principle. The results from simulations show that DH companies can introduce additional parameters to support customers in guiding their secondary system to perform more efficiently. Increased overall system efficiency has a positive impact on both costs and emissions.

Large-Scale Cluster Parallel Strategy for Regularized Lattice Boltzmann Method with Sub-Grid Scale Model in Large Eddy Simulation

As an improved method of the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM), the regularized lattice Boltzmann method (RLBM) has been widely used to simulate fluid flow. For solving high Reynolds number problems, large eddy simulation (LES) and RLBM can be combined. The computation of fluid flow problems often requires a large number of computational grids and large-scale parallel clusters. Therefore, the high scalability parallel algorithm of RLBM with LES on a large-scale cluster has been proposed in this paper. The proposed parallel algorithm can solve complex flow problems with large-scale Cartesian grids and high Reynolds numbers. In order to achieve computational load balancing, the domain decomposition method (DDM) has been used in large-scale mesh generation. Three mesh generation strategies are adopted, namely 1D, 2D and 3D. Then, the buffer on the grid interface is introduced and the corresponding 1D, 2D and 3D parallel data exchange strategies are proposed. For the 3D lid-driven cavity flow and incompressible flow around a sphere under a high Reynolds number, the given parallel algorithm is analyzed in detail. Experimental results show that the proposed parallel algorithm has a high scalability and accuracy on hundreds of thousands of cores.

Coupld thermo-hydraulic modelling of heat storage in an embankment

Coupld thermo-hydraulic modelling of heat storage in an embankment

Exchange Couplings and Edge States in Two-Dimensional Topological Insulators.

We consider two-dimensional honeycomb-lattice topological insulators of electrons which are exposed to exchange couplings at the edges, paying particular attention to the energy dispersions of edge states. The energy band structure of edge states is found to depend strongly on the direction of exchange couplings. Energy band splitting occurs for the exchange couplings perpendicular to the plane of topological insulators. In contrast, the parallel exchange couplings turn out to generate a finite energy gap in the edge-state bands for zigzag edges while armchair nanoribbons does not show such energy gaps. We also discuss the dependence of energy band structures of edge states on the magnetic structure of exchange couplings as well as the disorder effects on the edge-state density of states.

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Stability in Light of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Oil-Producing Countries: the Case Of Iraq

Purpose: The rapid spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic had significant effects on the global and local economy alike, represented in the decline in economic growth rates and the decline in international oil prices as a result of the decrease in global consumption of it, and then its greatest impact on the local economy was the rule of economic instability. Theoretical framework: This is as a result of the decline in oil revenues and the increase in the size of the financial deficit in the general budget, which led to the financing of that deficit by decreasing the exchange value of the dinar, and then the rise in inflation rates in the country. Design/Methodology/Approach: the decline in dollar revenues in light of this crisis and the prevailing impact of the struggle stock exchange on the exchange rate contributed to the widening of the gap between the two prices in the economy. Findings: the fluctuation of the parallel exchange rate and its reaching 1240 dinars per dollar. Research, practical & social implications: work should be done to establish sovereign funds in which to be saved in times of high oil prices, to be resorted to in times of crisis. Originality/ Value: this experience is applicable in many oil countries as the Public Revenue Control Fund In Algeria and the Kuwaiti Fund for Future Generations.