Illegal Trade Research Articles

CURRENT TRENDS AND COUNTERMEASURES OF INTERNATIONAL WASTE TRADE BETWEEN CHINA AND UKRAINE

It has been proved in the article that with the development of the global economy and the advancement of the industrialization process, the amount of waste has been increasing, and the international trade of waste is becoming increasingly active. As an important trading partner, exchanges and cooperation between Ukraine and China in the field of waste are of great significance. However, the study of the current situation and problems of the two countries in this respect has shown that waste trade had also brought a series of problems and challenges, which need to be further studied and discussed. It has been appeared to become significance to further promote economic cooperation and environmental protection between the two sides. The authors believe that international waste trade carries significant environmental risks because improper management of imported waste can lead to soil, water and air pollution, which negatively affects the health of the population and the ecosystem. The article examines current trends and measures to counter the international waste trade between China and Ukraine. It has been emphasized that waste trade has a significant economic impact hence it is important to understand how these processes affect the country's economy, in particular, the development of the industry of waste processing and innovative technologies. This study contributes to the strengthening of international cooperation in the field of environmental protection and helps to establish effective mechanisms for joint solutions to problems related to waste trade. China's refusal to import certain types of waste significantly has changed the global market and affected many countries, including Ukraine. Further analysis of these changes will help to understand their consequences and find optimal solutions for adaptation to new conditions. Given the growing international movement of waste, it is important to analyse and improve legal and regulatory mechanisms that ensure control and prevent illegal trade, which can lead to environmental and economic problems. The main aspects of this trade have been analysed, including its scale, the types of waste exported and imported, as well as the legislative and regulatory mechanisms of both countries. Particular attention has been paid to the latest international and national initiatives aimed at reducing environmental risks associated with transboundary movement of waste.

TigerBase: A DNA registration system to enhance enforcement and compliance testing of captive tiger facilities

The illegal trade in tigers (Panthera tigris) and their derivatives, such as bones, teeth and pelts, is a major threat to the species’ long-term persistence. As wild tiger populations have dwindled, a large proportion of trafficked tiger products now derive from captive breeding facilities found throughout Asia. Moreover, wild tigers have been poached and laundered into captive facilities, then falsely designated as captive-bred. The establishment of a DNA registration system is recognized as a key tool to monitor compliance of captive facilities, support tiger trade investigations and improve prosecution outcomes. Here, we present a standardised wildlife forensic DNA profiling system for captive tigers called TigerBase. TigerBase has been developed in four South-East Asia countries with captive tiger facilities: Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and Lao PDR. TigerBase DNA profile data is based on 60 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers, genotyped using two different TaqMan®-based approaches: OpenArray® chip (capable of genotyping 60 SNPs for 48 samples in a single chip), and singleplex TaqMan® assays (capable of genotyping one SNP for one sample per reaction). Of the 60 SNPs, 53 are autosomal nuclear markers, suitable for individualisation and parentage applications, two are sex-linked markers, suitable for sexing, and five are mtDNA markers, suitable for maternal subspecies identification. We conducted a series of validation experiments to investigate the reliability and limitations of these SNP genotyping platforms. We found that the OpenArray® chip platform is more appropriate for generating reference data given its greater throughput, while the singleplex TaqMan® assays are more appropriate for genotyping lower quality casework samples, given their higher sensitivity and throughput flexibility. Only 19 autosomal nuclear markers were validated as singleplex TaqMan® assays, which generally provides ample power for individualisation analysis (probability of identity among siblings was <6.9 ×10−4), but may lack power for specific parentage questions, such as determining parentage of an offspring when one of the parent’s genotypes is missing. Further, we have developed pipelines to support standardised SNP calling and decrease the chance of genotyping errors through the use of analytical workflows and synthetic positive controls. We expect the implementation of TigerBase will enhance enforcement of tiger trafficking cases and encourage compliance among captive tiger facilities, together contributing to combatting the illegal tiger trade.

Kulturowe aspekty dark web

The article contains a review of research on the cultural aspects of the Dark Web. A semi-systematic literature review was used for this purpose, as such an approach enables the reviewing of a multi- or interdisciplinary research area. Scopus, an international and multidisciplinary database indexing academic publications, was the source of bibliographic data. It turned out that there is a relatively short history of research on the cultural aspects of the Dark Web. The first publications on the topic only appeared in the Scopus database in 2005, and it continues to be a niche area of research, with the annual number of indexed publications around a few dozen. The author distinguished the following groups of issues that researchers deal with: (1) motivations among Dark Web users for making use of this part of the internet; (2) the impact of the Dark Web’s existence and the anonymity it provides on human behaviour; (3) the specificity of trading activity on “dark markets”; (4) steps taken by illegal traders to gain a reputation and customer trust; (5) communication practices on discussion forums; (6) the freedom to disseminate information; and (7) the methodology for studying communities on “dark networks”.

Exploring the mechanisms of underground economy: A case study of the informal bicycle market in a southern China city

This paper aims to explore the typical mechanisms of the underground economic phenomenon through anthropological and grounded theoretical methodology through an ethnographic study on the site of an informal bicycle market in a city in South China. It investigates and analyzes the formation path and mechanism of the informal bicycle market. Data was collected through unobtrusive observation and in-depth interviews. It follows a grounded theory data analysis procedure based on multiple data sources, such as participant observations, interviews, prior literature, and news reports. The model illustrates how the informal bicycle market is formatted and the mechanisms to maintain its operations. The findings indicated that the development of the informal market affects the efficiency of social resource allocation and, in many cases, may erode the overall system of the national economy. The analysis of the formation path and mechanism of the underground economy represented by the informal market is of great significance for the sustainable development of the social economy.

Delimiting species boundaries within the Babyloniidae (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Neogastropoda) using multi‐locus phylogenetic analysis

AbstractThe Babyloniidae is a family of marine snails consisting of 21 species and two genera. Current taxonomic debates on the Babyloniidae are mainly due to their extremely similar shell morphologies, which have led to incorrect locality records and mislabelling in legal or illegal international trade. We have therefore constructed a phylogeny of the Babyloniidae with high species coverage (57% of the family) by using multi‐locus genes (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I [COI], 16S, and H3) with four species delimitation methods (Best Close Match [BCM], Assemble Species by Automatic Partitioning [ASAP], Bayesian Poisson Tree Process [bPTP] and Multi‐rate Poisson Tree Processes [mPTP]). Based on our results, 13 clades/operational taxonomic unit were observed, which confirms pre‐existing species status for 10 Babylonia and one Zemiropsis taxa: B. areolata (Link, 1807), B. borneensis (Sowerby II, 1864), B. feicheni Shikama, 1973, B. formosae (Sowerby II, 1866), B. japonica (Reeve, 1842), B. lutosa (Lamarck, 1816), B. pieroangelai Cossignani, 2008, B. spirata (Linnaeus, 1758), B. valentiana (Swainson, 1822), B. zeylanica (Bruguière, 1789) and Z. papillaris (Sowerby I, 1825). A monophyletic group with four species collected from Indonesia which includes B. spirata f. balinensis Cossignani, 2009, B. spirata f. semipicta (Sowerby II, 1866) and B. angusta Altena &amp; Gittenberger, 1981, implying they should belong to a single species, B. semipicta. Additionally, we suggest B. formosae habei Altena &amp; Gittenberger, 1981 should be escalated as B. habei, and not as a subspecies.

Rural Banditry and Economic Crimes: Exploring the Perceptions of Male Pastoralists’ Lived Experience in Kwara State, North-Central Nigeria

Armed banditry and insurgency are among the principal insecurity challenges in present-day Nigeria. This study investigated the lived experience of male pastoralists on rural banditry and associated economic crimes in Kwara State, north-central Nigeria to fill identified gaps in the literature. A sample of 20 pastoralists’ hamlets was selected for the study. Data were collected through focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Qualitative content analysis was used to analyse the data. Data analysis showed that study participants were aware of the problem of rural banditry. Major banditry-related economic crimes reported by participants were robbery and burglary, livestock rustling, farmers-herders conflicts with attendant destruction of pastoralists’ assets, among others. Through facilitation by pairwise ranking exercise within focus group sessions, study participants identified livestock rustling as the most important banditry-related economic crime. Participants carried out social profiling of livestock rustlers. Results further suggested that the key factors influencing livestock rustling were economic deprivations and social dislocation in Nigerian society, criminal networks on livestock rustling and illegal trading on rustled livestock, and access to light weapons by the livestock rustlers, among others. Participants reported the immediate and long-term effects of livestock rustling on the crime victims and their communities. The study recommends the rollout of the government-planned National Animal Identification and Traceability System, the enactment of state law that would prohibit indiscriminate livestock transportation and, the creation of a local security system to complement the state-based policing system to reduce armed banditry and livestock rustling among the study population.

The Pangolin Universal Notching System: a scale-marking methodology for pangolins

Abstract Despite thousands of individuals entering the illegal wildlife trade each year, assessments of pangolin populations are largely non-existent, even in areas with high exploitation and limited personnel and field equipment. Although pangolins have unique keratin-based scales, there is no universal scale-marking method for individuals despite some pangolin conservation programmes utilizing marking for reference and cataloguing. Each programme currently establishes and manages its own system, resulting in inconsistencies and limiting data sharing. To facilitate pangolin monitoring and research, we developed a standardized method for assigning individual identification numbers, which we call the Pangolin Universal Notching System. This system is neither resource nor training intensive, which could facilitate its adoption and implementation globally. Its application could help to address knowledge gaps in pangolin ageing, reproduction, survivorship, migration and local trafficking patterns, and could be used in combination with other tagging techniques for research on pangolin biology.

Perilous state of critically endangered Northwest African cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus hecki) across the Sudano‐Sahel

AbstractNorthwest African cheetah populations have declined precipitously, with expert opinion estimating that &lt;420 individuals persist across parts of Algeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger and Mali. However, no reliable density estimates exist in the remaining subspecies strongholds throughout the Sudano‐Sahel Zone, including the W‐Arly‐Pendjari Complex and Greater Zakouma Ecosystem within the Bahr/Salamat landscape. Camera trap surveys were combined with spatially explicit capture–recapture methodologies in both regions to estimate the cheetah density and detectable demographic composition of these populations. Following 15 429 camera trap nights, we detected nine individuals during the dry season and four individuals during the wet season in Pendjari (2021), nine individuals (dry season; 2023) in Zakouma and none in Siniaka Minia. Cheetah densities were thus estimated at 0.17–0.24 and 0.37 cheetah per 100 km2 in Pendjari and Zakouma, respectively. While marginally higher than predicted, such low‐density estimates are concerning in the last remaining habitats harbouring this critically endangered subspecies. Considering the substantial contraction of regional cheetah distribution, we estimate an overall population size of 68 ± 29 individuals across the studied areas. These novel estimates are among the lowest formally determined densities throughout cheetah range in Africa, where a high frequency of people and livestock detected on camera traps highlight the ongoing risks to large carnivores in these protected areas. Subsequent management recommendations include implementation of the established regional conservation strategies that encompass the distributional range of these cheetah, continuous monitoring of populations, genetic analyses to inform management, curbing illegal trade and increasing international awareness around the plight of the subspecies.

Explaining Implausible Results in Shadow Economy Estimation Using MIMIC Models

For decades, economists have been trying to estimate the magnitude of the shadow economy (SE), which is not directly observable. This paper explores how the MIMIC (Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause) model can yield estimates of the SE/GDP (the proportion of the SE to the gross domestic product) below 0%, above 100%, and other implausible results. The focus is on the new calibration methods by Dell’Anno (2022) and data on the Czech Republic (1993–2021). The paper concludes that one of the leading causes of implausible results is the misalignment between the SE definition implied by the MIMIC model and that used for the exogenous estimates applied for calibration. Therefore, the authors propose testing the alignment between the SE definitions, such as assessing trends in the latent variable (first-stage scores) resulting from the MIMIC model and the exogenous estimates or applying regression or correlation analysis.

Preventing illegal seafood trade using machine-learning assisted microbiome analysis

BackgroundSeafood is increasingly traded worldwide, but its supply chain is particularly prone to frauds. To increase consumer confidence, prevent illegal trade, and provide independent validation for eco-labelling, accurate tools for seafood traceability are needed. Here we show that the use of microbiome profiling (MP) coupled with machine learning (ML) allows precise tracing the origin of Manila clams harvested in areas separated by small geographic distances. The study was designed to represent a real-world scenario. Clams were collected in different seasons across the most important production area in Europe (lagoons along the northern Adriatic coast) to cover the known seasonal variation in microbiome composition for the species. DNA extracted from samples underwent the same depuration process as commercial products (i.e. at least 12 h in open flow systems).ResultsMachine learning-based analysis of microbiome profiles was carried out using two completely independent sets of data (collected at the same locations but in different years), one for training the algorithm, and the other for testing its accuracy and assessing the temporal stability signal. Briefly, gills (GI) and digestive gland (DG) of clams were collected in summer and winter over two different years (i.e. from 2018 to 2020) in one banned area and four farming sites. 16S DNA metabarcoding was performed on clam tissues and the obtained amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) table was used as input for ML MP. The best-predicting performances were obtained using the combined information of GI and DG (consensus analysis), showing a Cohen K-score > 0.95 when the target was the classification of samples collected from the banned area and those harvested at farming sites. Classification of the four different farming areas showed slightly lower accuracy with a 0.76 score.ConclusionsWe show here that MP coupled with ML is an effective tool to trace the origin of shellfish products. The tool is extremely robust against seasonal and inter-annual variability, as well as product depuration, and is ready for implementation in routine assessment to prevent the trade of illegally harvested or mislabeled shellfish.

Assessing the legal, illegal, and gray ornamental trade of the critically endangered helmeted hornbill.

Monitoring wildlife trade dynamics is an important initial step for conservation action and demand reduction campaigns to reduce illegal wildlife trade. Studies often rely on one data source to assess a species' trade, such as seizures or the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) trade data. Each database provides useful information but is often incomplete. Combining information from multiple sources helps provide a more complete understanding of trade. A recent rapid increase in demand for helmeted hornbill (Rhinoplax vigil) casques (a brightly colored, solid keratinous rostrum) led to its uplisting to critically endangered on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List in 2015. However, there is little current information on what factors influence trade trends and what current levels of demand are. We combined data from CITES, seizure records, and previously underused, yet abundant, art and antique auction data to examine the global trade in helmeted hornbill casque products (HHPs). Three decades of auction data revealed that 1027 individual HHPs had been auctioned since 1992; total auction sales were over US$3 million from 1992 to 2021. The number of HHPs auctioned was greatest from 2011 to 2014, just after the global art boom (2009-2011), followed by a decline in volume and price. The auction data also revealed 2 possible markets for HHPs: true antique and speculative, defined by era, price, and trade patterns. Trends in illegal trade matched those of the auction market, but legal trade remained consistently low. Combining data sources from legal, illegal, and gray markets provided an overview of the dynamics of illegal trade in an endangered species. This approach can be applied to other wildlife markets to provide a more complete understanding of trade and demand at the market level to inform future demand reduction campaigns.

The need for a socioecological harm reduction approach to reduce illegal wildlife trade.

The burgeoning illegal trade in succulents in southern Africa presents a critical conservation and social development challenge. Drawing parallels with the trajectory of the response to rhinoceros poaching, we considered the consequences of conservation law enforcement measures, particularly the militarization of antipoaching efforts. The response to rhinoceros poaching not only resulted in so-called green militarization, but also led to extrajudicial killings, human rights abuses, and the disproportionate targeting of low-level poachers. The nature of wildlife trade prohibition is complex and often contested, and many actors operating in illegal wildlife trades dispute the label of illegal for socioeconomic, cultural, historical, or political reasons. This contestation is crucial when considering Indigenous cultural and medicinal values of succulents, with Indigenous Peoples and local communities questioning the criminalization of traditional plant harvesting practices. As the illegal trade in succulents continues to grow, it is imperative for conservationists to consider a nuanced approach. We call for a socioecological harm reduction approach that emphasizes community engagement, sustainable use, and codesigned interventions. Such an approach could help balance the scales of ecological conservation and human dignity in the face of growing wildlife trade challenges.

An assessment of potential interventions to reduce the totoaba illegal trade market.

The illegal trade in totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi) is causing adverse social, ecological, and economic impacts. This illegal activity is accelerating the overexploitation of totoaba and pushing the critically endangered vaquita (Phocoena sinus) closer to extinction. Despite extensive efforts to recover vaquita populations, scant attention has been given to the totoaba trade as an independent issue. As a result, data on the totoaba trade are limited, which hampers robust analyses and development of effective interventions to reduce illegal harvesting. We used a previously developed framework specifically designed to examine dynamics of illegal markets and guide measures to mitigate illegal use of totoaba. This framework separates markets into 3 analytical levels: characterization of participating actors (e.g., fishers, intermediaries); examination of how actors interact within the market (e.g., organization of supply chains); and assessment of the overall market dynamics that result from these interactions (e.g., factors determining price and quantity). We reviewed existing literature (108 initial articles) and interviewed key market actors, academics, and nongovernmental organization experts (14) to obtain data for this framework. Our findings offer an overview of the totoaba illegal market operation, highlighting intervention points (e.g., customs agents) and areas where additional information is required to decrease information gaps (e.g., US local market). We describe the structure and complexity of this market, emphasizing the influential role of organized crime in shaping its dynamics (e.g., controlling prices paid to fishers and stockpiling). By providing a systematic and in-depth understanding of the market operation, we aimed to establish a benchmark for effective interventions and future research aimed at reducing uncertainties. Our results provide a crucial step toward addressing this critical issue and can help facilitate development of effective strategies to combat the illegal totoaba trade and promote biodiversity conservation more broadly.

Use of consumer insights to inform behavior change interventions aimed at illegal pet turtle trade in China.

Illegal poaching and overexploitation for the international pet trade are among the greatest threats to freshwater turtles in Southeast Asia. Expanding consumer research in China is crucial to filling knowledge gaps about the scale and structure of illegal trade and developing audience-targeted and relevant interventions that may reduce demand for illegal turtles as pets. We applied mixed methods to provide a detailed understanding of the consumer side of the illegal pet turtle trade in China. We conducted 30 interviews with key stakeholders and online surveys (n=2456) of turtle keepers via community forums. From these, we identified 3 core consumer groups based on their prior turtle-keeping experience, species exposure, and potential for future purchases. We conducted a thematic qualitative analysis of concepts related to the capability, opportunity, motivation, and behavior (COM-B) model to determine the factors influencing the illegal pet turtle trade and to identify barriers to illegal purchases. Specifically, we identified purchasers' capabilities, opportunities, and motivations in the context of legality, enforcement risk, captive breeding, and impacts on wild population. We developed consumer journey maps (i.e., visual representations of customer's experiences throughout their buying journey) for core consumer groups. These maps illustrate the sequential behaviors and processes that consumers undertake when purchasing turtles, from initial exposure to sourcing, keeping, and providing a new home. Key factors influencing illegal purchases included convenient purchase channels, misguided cognition and motivations for pet keeping, and weak law enforcement. Effective interventions included messages focusing on shifting cognition and beliefs, increasing legal risk perception, and emphasizing stringent law enforcement, primarily delivered through online channels. Our results underscore the necessity for adaptable, audience-tailored interventions to reduce consumer demand for illegal wildlife products. The mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative data, provided a comprehensive understanding of the target behavior and can inform the development of effective intervention strategies.

Quantifying species biases among multidata sources on illegal wildlife trade and its implications for conservation.

Unsustainable wildlife consumption and illegal wildlife trade (IWT) threaten biodiversity worldwide. Although publicly accessible data sets are increasingly used to generate insights into IWT, little is known about their potential bias. We compared three typical and temporally corresponding data sets (4204 court verdicts, 926 seizure news reports, and 219 bird market surveys) on traded birds native to China and evaluated their possible species biases. Specifically, we evaluated bias and completeness of sampling for species richness, phylogeny, conservation status, spatial distribution, and life-history characteristics among the three data sets when determining patterns of illegal trade. Court verdicts contained the largest species richness. In bird market surveys and seizure news reports, phylogenetic clustering was greater than that in court verdicts, where songbird species (i.e., Passeriformes) were detected in higher proportions in market surveys. The seizure news data set contained the highest proportion of species of high conservation priority but the lowest species coverage. Across the country, all data sets consistently reported relatively high species richness in south and southwest regions, but markets revealed a northern geographic bias. The species composition in court verdicts and markets also exhibited distinct geographical patterns. There was significant ecological trait bias when we modeled whether a bird species is traded in the market. Our regression model suggested that species with small body masses, large geographical ranges, and a preference for anthropogenic habitats and those that are not nationally protected were more likely to be traded illegally. The species biases we found emphasize the need to know the constraints of each data set so that they can optimally inform strategies to combat IWT.

Expert assessment of illegal collecting impacts on Venus flytraps and priorities for research on illegal trade.

Illegal collecting of wild Venus flytraps (Dionaea muscipula) for the horticultural trade represents a persistent threat to populations of the species across their endemic range in the coastal plain of North and South Carolina (United States). Although wild collecting of Venus flytraps is not a novel threat, there has been very little research on the impacts of collecting on the species' conservation to date or why an illegal trade persists alongside a legal one. We drew on qualitative expert stakeholder elicitation to contextualize the threat of illegal collecting to the long-term conservation of Venus flytraps in relation to other anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation included botanical and conservation researchers, cognizant state and federal agency staff, land managers, and conservation nonprofit actors. The workshop included mapping of supply chain structures and prioritization of social and environmental harms. Expert consensus determined illegal collecting is an ongoing problem for Venus flytrap conservation, but habitat destruction, degradation, and fire suppression are the most significant threats to flytrap conservation. Supply chain analysis showed that observable social and environmental harms of the trade are focused at the supply stage and that less is known about transit and demand stages. Key research gaps identified include a lack of understanding of plant laundering practices relevant to a range of desirable plant taxa; the role of commercial nurseries in illicit horticultural supply chains; motivations for engaging in Venus flytrap collecting; and the persistent demand for illegally harvested plants when cultivated, legally obtainable plants are readily available. Our findings and methodology are relevant to a range of ornamental plants affected by illegal trade for which robust social data on illegal collecting drivers are lacking.

Towards malum prohibitum: crime deterrence strategies for reducing illicit antiquities trade

AbstractFight against illegal antiquities trade has predominantly taken a reactive stance. This study operates with novel quantitative and qualitative data obtained through a survey and interviews with 42 law enforcement agents from 21 source and market countries. An empirical insight on illegal antiquities trade is provided, and a comprehensive reference framework of crime deterrence strategies is created. Incidence and efficiency rates of the identified strategies conceal that a law enforcement response at the market side, strengthened through policing, criminal prosecution, reverse of the burden of proof, market control and traceability, is deemed most effective deterrence-wise leveraging certainty of being caught, severity and celerity of punishment, the key mechanisms of Deterrence theory. By contrast, the existing international and EU legislation are considered inconsistent. The findings reveal the need for critically reviewing the current situation and defining a pathway for antiquities markets from malum non prohibitum environments to at least malum prohibitum climates: shaping proactive policy approaches through updated legislation and targeted crime deterrence and prevention activities to be applied mainly at the market side.

TRÁFICO ILICITO DE ANIMAIS SILVESTRES

Animal trafficking has been gaining momentum in Brazil and, as a result of this crime, it has become one of the main causes of threats to animals, endangered species and biodiversity. The illegal trade in these animals is the third largest trafficking, behind only arms and drug trafficking, with exorbitant numbers of animals exploited, with approximately 38 million animals being removed from Brazil each year. It is estimated that for every 10 animals stolen from their natural habitat, 9 do not survive due to the precarious conditions they are subjected to during transportation, which is one of the main reasons for the threat to biodiversity. Since this is a crime that produces several negative effects and occurs mostly to satisfy human desires, stricter laws need to be regulated to reduce this crime, considering that in addition to the low routine imposed, sometimes the penalty is not properly applied, leaving the crime unpunished so that the act continues and more animals become victims of this situation. The topic of animal trafficking involves several fields, going beyond the possible loss of biodiversity, such as violation of animal welfare, ecology, law, biology, public health, mistreatment, ethics, among others, thus offering a possible opportunity for comprehensive and multidisciplinary research, enriching academic knowledge and bringing more visibility to the subject. The study of this topic contributes to the understanding and awareness about environmental protection, in addition to affecting not only ecosystems, but also social, economic and public health consequences. In view of the facts mentioned, investigating this problem can help identify solutions to mitigate its negative impacts on society.

The Measurement of the Gross Domestic Product affected by the shadow economy

The article presents a method for balancing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) when the measurements of its components are distorted by the existence of the shadow economy. Our proposal to measure GDP is based on a multiple ultrastructural model (MUM), where the explanatory variables are subject to error. We show that the expected value of GDP can be divided into two parts: the first part concerns data related to registered activities and the second part concerns unobserved data which may be partly related to the shadow economy. The empirical analysis is based on the annual data for individual voivodeships in Poland for the years 2000–2019. The data are obtained from the Local Data Bank of Statistics Poland. Two approaches to measuring GDP are considered: from the expenditure side and from the production side. The results show that the unobservable part of the variables necessary to balance GDP on the production side does not exceed 1% of GDP, and on the expenditure side, it mostly reaches about 3% of GDP.

Shadow economy-income inequality nexus: a panel analysis of West African countries

ABSTRACT This paper examines the nexus between shadow economy and income inequality in the West African region. The study applies second-generation panel estimation techniques to analyze the effect and the direction of causation between the variables. The results reveal that the shadow economy reduces income inequality in the region in both short-run and long-run estimations. A similar result is documented when alternative estimation techniques are employed. In addition, the panel causality results show a bidirectional relationship between shadow economy and income inequality in the West African economy. The implications of the study are discussed.