Panel VAR Research Articles

Exploring the nexus of decent work, financial inclusion, and economic growth: A study aligned with SDG 8

We investigate the potential influence of fair employment practices and financial inclusion on economic growth, focusing on aligning our analysis with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 8 (SDG 8). Our study encompasses various countries, including 26 low-income, 20 middle-income, and 15 high-income nations. Utilizing a dynamic fixed-effect panel data approach and employing the Generalized Method of Moments from 2010 to 2021, our findings reveal that conducive environments for decent work and enhanced access to digital financial services positively impact economic growth. This synergistic effect of SDG 8 components is particularly pronounced in high-income countries, suggesting the potential for accelerated economic growth rates. Conversely, our analysis finds no discernible impact on the economic growth of low-income countries. For middle-income countries, nuanced coefficient outcomes provide a more intricate understanding of their economic dynamics. Through extensive impulse-response analysis using a Panel Vector Autoregression model, we illustrate the distinct effects of shocks related to decent work and financial inclusion across various income categories. Our results are robust to multiple sensitivity tests, underscoring their reliability and signaling significant policy implications for acknowledging the critical role of decent work and financial inclusion in fostering economic growth.

Revisiting the role of climate change on crop production: evidence from Mediterranean countries

AbstractThe Mediterranean region is an important agricultural center and is expected to be most affected by climate change due to its location. In this study, the role of climate change on agriculture is examined for eight South European countries on the Mediterranean coast for the period of 1996–2016. Carbon dioxide emissions, temperature and precipitation values are used as the indicators of climate change while cereal production is taken as a proxy for agricultural production. Results of the panel vector autoregression approach reveal that an increase in the carbon dioxide emissions and temperature have a negative impact on the cereal production. However, this effect is statistically significant only in the initial periods. On the other hand, an increase in rainfall has a statistically significant positive effect on crop production only in one period. However, eventually this effect turns to negative as expected, since excessive rainfall has a negative effect on agriculture as much as drought. In conclusion, the importance of bringing the policies and strategies to the forefront in ensuring the sustainability of agriculture and minimizing the negative effects of climate change in the region are discussed.

Intra-Africa Agricultural Trade, Governance Quality and Agricultural Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from a Panel Vector Autoregressive Model

Intra-Africa Agricultural Trade, Governance Quality and Agricultural Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from a Panel Vector Autoregressive Model

Study on the relationship between informatization and marine eco-efficiency in China–taking 11 coastal provinces as examples

This article focuses on 11 coastal provinces in China and selects relevant data from 2008 to 2021. The improved entropy method is used to calculate the level of informationization development in each province. The Malmquist index is used to calculate the marine ecological efficiency of each province. The panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model is established to study the dynamic relationship between informationization and marine ecological efficiency. The results show that: (1) There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between informationization and marine ecological efficiency, and informationization is a Granger cause of marine ecological efficiency at the 5% significance level. (2) Overall, informationization has a promoting effect on marine ecological efficiency, but with a certain lag; the improvement of marine ecological efficiency also benefits the development of informationization. (3) There is a bidirectional relationship between informationization and marine ecological efficiency, and informationization has become the main influencing factor of marine ecological efficiency.

The role of environmental tax on the environmental quality in EU counties: evidence from panel vector autoregression approach

This study intends to analyze the influence of environmental taxes on pollution in EU-27 nations. Furthermore, energy from renewable sources consumption and urbanization are employed to clarify CO2 emissions in this study that tests the EKC hypothesis. According to the findings, an increase in environmental taxes reduces CO2 emissions by 0.14%. Also, the data supported the validity of the EKC concept. The findings of the causality test demonstrated that there is a bidirectional causal link between CO2 emissions and environmental taxes. These results reflect that environmental tax revenues contribute to sustainability as an effective policy tool in EU countries. Policies regarding environmental tax enforcement come to the fore in terms of both keeping the balance in economic activities and serving sustainability.

The impact of housing prices and land financing on economic growth: Evidence from Chinese 277 cities at the prefecture level and above.

With the rapid progress of urbanization in China, the real estate industry, characterized by a long industrial chain, has become a pillar industry for economic development. Therefore, we inspect the nexus between land finance, housing prices, and economic growth. For this purpose, we use the panel data of 277 cities at the prefecture level or above in China from 2011 to 2019, and empirically examine it by using the Panel Vector Auto Regression (PVAR) model. The results show that there is a causal relationship between housing prices and economic growth. Housing prices promote economic growth in the short term and inhibit it in the long term. Both economic growth and housing prices have a significant impact on land finance. The economic growth show a significantly positive impact, while housing prices promote land finance in the short term with a long-term trend from positive to negative. This is the first study that tries to probe the relationship between urban housing prices, land finance, and economic growth by considering 277 prefecture-level and above cities in China. To promote the stable development of the regional economy, local governments need to overcome their dependence on the housing market and land finance and promote the healthy development of the housing market.

The Effects of Economic Cycle Shocks on Polluting Emissions in Developing Countries: Insights from a Panel Vector Autoregression Analysis

The Effects of Economic Cycle Shocks on Polluting Emissions in Developing Countries: Insights from a Panel Vector Autoregression Analysis

Political Stability, Corruption, and Economic Development: Evidence from WAMZ Countries

This paper examines the political stability, corruption, and economic progress of the nations that make up the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) between 2000 and 2020. To prevent misspecification bias and therefore skewed statistical results, the common features of the panel data were examined first. First of all, the CD test did not find any evidence of cross-sectional dependency across the nations, validating the use of the conventional panel unit root, which does not account for cross-sectional dependence. According to Levin et al. (2002)'s panel unit root test, the variables are integrated of order zero, or I (0).Using the panel VAR framework as a basis, the paper investigates. Emotional intelligence data demonstrated that while corruption impedes regional economic growth, political stability and the rule of law foster it. According to the findings of variance decomposition, the factors under investigation either support or impede the WAMZ countries' economic development. Based on the results the paper recommends that, transparency and accountability at all level of government affairs as well as respecting the constitution in these nations should be preserved in order to overcome all social and political injustice among the countries under study.

Political Stability, Corruption, and Economic Development : Evidence frim WAMZ Countries

The paper has analyzed the political stability, corruption and economic development in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries for the period of 2000 to 2020. The common properties of the panel data were first checked to avoid mis-specification bias and hence biased statistical results. Firstly, the CD test revealed no evidence/absence of cross sectional dependence among the countries which validates the use of traditional panel unit root that does not take account of cross-sectional dependence. The results of panel unit root test proposed by Levin et al (2002) revealed that the variables are integrated of order zero i.e. I (0). Based on this, the paper explores within the panel VAR framework. Evidence from impulse response functions revealed that, political stability and rule of low are economic development promoters while corruption hampers economic development in the region. The results from variance decomposition indicate that the variables under study contribute or hinder economic development in the WAMZ countries. Based on the results the paper recommends that, transparency and accountability at all level of government affairs as well as respecting the constitution in these nations should be preserved in order to overcome all social and political injustice among the countries under study.

Political Stability, Corruption, and Economic Development: Evidence from WAMZ Countries

This paper examines the political stability, corruption, and economic progress of the nations that make up the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) between 2000 and 2020. To prevent misspecification bias and therefore skewed statistical results, the common features of the panel data were examined first. First of all, the CD test did not find any evidence of cross-sectional dependency across the nations, validating the use of the conventional panel unit root, which does not account for cross-sectional dependence. According to Levin et al. (2002)'s panel unit root test, the variables are integrated of order zero, or I (0).Using the panel VAR framework as a basis, the paper investigates. Emotional intelligence data demonstrated that while corruption impedes regional economic growth, political stability and the rule of law foster it. According to the findings of variance decomposition, the factors under investigation either support or impede the WAMZ countries' economic development. Based on the results the paper recommends that, transparency and accountability at all level of government affairs as well as respecting the constitution in these nations should be preserved in order to overcome all social and political injustice among the countries under study

How causality impacts the renewable energy, carbon emissions, and economic growth nexus in the South Caucasus Countries?

Renewable energy is essential for boosting economic expansion and lowering carbon dioxide emission (CO2) to achieve carbon neutrality. This study's objective is to investigate the relationship between the use of renewable energy, economic growth, and CO2 for South Caucasus Countries. For analysis purposes, time series methods were applied on the panel data. Second-generation unit root and cointegration tests were used to test the cross-sectional dependence. Afterward, panel causality and panel VAR techniques were performed to examine the relationship between the variables. Based on feedback hypothesis, results of our causality analysis revealed a bidirectional causality relationship between growth and renewable energy consumption. Moreover, we revealed unidirectional causality from CO2 to renewable energy and from growth to CO2 emission. We also found that the effect of a shock in renewable energy on growth is increasing, and on CO2, it is decreasing implying that renewable energy consumption will trigger growth and have a reducing effect on CO2 emissions. We portrayed significant workable implications for policymakers, regulation bodies, companies, stakeholders, and managers. Results from this study should be extrapolated with caution since their applicability is limited to the South Caucasus Countries. In addition, the research heavily depends on summaries, which may obscure regional differences. In the future, researchers may want to dig deeper into the data and examine the subtle effect of renewable energy policy nationally. Moreover, including socio-economic aspects and technical improvements in the research might give a more thorough picture of the dynamics at play.

Deciphering the black-box of monetary policy transmission in South Asia

Purpose ─ This study aims to identify the role of the bank capital channel by investigating how monetary policy affects bank lending through its influence on bank equity capital, in the transmission of monetary policy.Method ─ The study employs panel vector autoregression (pVAR) to investigate the complex relationship between monetary policy shocks, bank capital, and lending behavior. Results ─ The main findings are as follows: 1) The study finds evidence of both the bank lending and bank capital channels in South Asia. The analysis reveals a Granger causality between changes in bank capital position and policy rate adjustments, indicating a dynamic interplay between these variables. 2) The findings suggest, although direct effects of capital position changes on bank lending appear negligible, a nuanced examination uncovers the moderating influence of capital position changes on the impact of policy rate fluctuations on lending behavior. 3) The study suggests that healthier banking systems weaken the bank lending channel in South Asia.Implications/Significance ─ The study is significant because it sheds light on the mechanism involved in the interplay between monetary policy, bank capital, and lending, providing valuable insights for policymakers and future research directions.

Dynamic Analysis of the Growth of Building Area and the Immigrant Population in Shanghai based on the PVAR Model

Since the reform and opening up more than 30 years ago, Shanghai has witnessed rapid development of economic and continuous acceleration of urbanization and continuous growth of building area. However, the number of migrants has decreased over the same period, which is inconsistent with previous studies that show that population affects land demand and floor space. In this paper, panel data of each district of Shanghai from 2014 to 2018 are selected and the panel vector autoregression model (PVAR model) is constructed to analyze the dynamic relationship between the building area growth of each district of Shanghai, the immigrant population and the economic growth. The results show that : (a)There is no long‐term equilibrium relationship between the growth of Shanghai's floor area and the migration of foreign population. (b) The construction area growth in Shanghai can affect the regional GDP growth to a certain extent. (c) The migration of migrants into Shanghai has a certain effect on the economic growth of Shanghai.

Sustainable Impact of Green Building on the Eco-Economic Efficiency of the Construction Industry: Evidence from China

Addressing the global warming challenge, the carbon emissions reduction potential of green building (GB) is garnering increasing attention. However, the extent to which GB can impact the eco-economic efficiency (EE) of the construction industry remains unclear. To fill this gap, based on panel data for 30 regions of China from 2003 to 2018, in this study, a comprehensive analysis of the EE and sustainable impact of GB is conducted using a super slacks-based measure (SBM-DEA), panel vector autoregression (PVAR) and threshold models. The findings reflect that only about 10% of provinces have achieved EE effectiveness, with pure technical effectiveness being a significant driving force behind this. The average comprehensive, pure technical, and scale EE show a 62.23%, 46.42%, and 31.91% improvement potential regarding the efficiency frontier. The EE in the Eastern Region is relatively high, while the Western Region surpassed the Central Region in regards to EE in the areas of scale and pure technical efficiency. EE is significantly reduced in the current period (year) when it is subject to the positive impact of a standard deviation from the existing economic level. This impact was the strongest in period 1, then gradually disappeared until period 6, aligning with the Kuznets curve’s theoretical assumption. GB awareness negatively impacted the current period, but is expected to gradually show a positive effect after period 2. The urbanization, green building awareness, and green building coverage make a very small contribution to the EE, accounting for 8.6%, 1.6%, and 9%, respectively, with early EE and economic level identified as the primary variables affecting the current EE. The impact of GB on EE exhibits a threshold effect, with the ecological effect of GB significant only in cities with economic levels higher than 11.063. This research contributes to the existing knowledge of the eco-economic mechanism of GB and provides insights for government policies, promoting the sustainable development of the GB market.

Safety Monitoring Method for the Uplift Pressure of Concrete Dams Based on Optimized Spatiotemporal Clustering and the Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive Model

To establish a safety monitoring method for the uplift pressure of concrete dams, spatiotemporal information from monitoring data is needed. In the present study, the method of ordering points to identify the clustering structure is employed to spatially cluster the uplift pressure measuring points at different locations on the dam; three distance indexes and two clustering evaluation indexes are used to realize clustering optimization and select the optimal clustering results. The Bayesian panel vector autoregressive model is used to establish the uplift stress safety monitoring model for each category of monitoring point. For a nonstationary sequence, the difference method is selected to ensure that the sequence is stable, and the prediction is carried out according to the presence or absence of exogenous variables. The result is that the addition of exogenous variables increases the accuracy of the model’s forecast. Engineering examples show that the uplift pressure measurement points on the dam are divided into seven categories, and classification is based mainly on location and influencing factors. The multiple correlation coefficients of the training set and test set data of the BPVAR model are more than 0.80, and the prediction error of the validation set is lower than that of the Back Propagation neural network, XGBoost algorithm, and Support Vector Machines. The research in this paper provides some reference for seepage monitoring of concrete dams.

Spatiotemporal patterns, effects, and the interactive driving mechanisms of urban sustainability based on the eco-efficiency framework: Evidence from Chinese prefecture-level cities

Eco-efficiency is a vital tool for evaluating and advancing regional sustainable development. This study presents an urban eco-efficiency (UEE) framework that deserves widespread application. By using the Super Slacks-Based Measure model, the research calculates the UEE of 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2022. The study employs the Standard Deviational Ellipse to illustrate the spatiotemporal pattern of UEE in China and examines its effects using non-parametric kernel density estimation, the coefficient of variation, and both global and local Moran's I. The integration of UEE with urban development patterns, which is not immediately clear, is achieved through the entropy-based TOPSIS model. Additionally, the Malmquist index, the Two-way Fixed Effects (TWFE) model, and the Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model reveal the dynamic changes and interactive driving mechanisms of UEE in China. The results indicate that: (1) UEE in China displays a consistent “core-periphery” pattern, exhibiting a notable hierarchical impact from regional, scale, and administrative perspectives. The complexity of UEE's spatiotemporal variations has increased due to the impact of COVID-19. (2) The UEE of Chinese cities shows a significant ‘club’ effect, with efficiency thresholds for high-high and low-low aggregations set at 0.8. (3) Only 25% of Chinese cities have achieved optimal UEE levels. Notably, cities in the west contribute most to national UEE growth, while midland cities contribute the least. The decreasing trend in UEE growth underscores the urgent need for a shift in China's urban development model. (4) UEE in China benefits from a resilient self-reinforcing mechanism, with urban development and economic growth significantly aiding UEE growth. Despite a non-significant negative impact from government intervention, the inhibitory effect of an intensive industrial structure on UEE turns into a promotional effect, especially following COVID-19.

Dynamic interaction between permanent and temporary employment across manufacturing labor markets in the Mexican states: A structural panel VAR approach

México’s implementation of several labor market reforms aimed to stimulate the flexibilization of labor relationships have brought long-standing concerns among scholars and governmental authorities about a displacement process of permanent by temporary jobs. In this regard, this manuscript aims to respond whether the dynamic interaction between permanent and temporary employment across Mexican states describe a substitution or complementary relationship. By means of implementing a structural panel vector autoregressive model, our estimation results demonstrate that a combination of both types of interaction, substitutive and complementary ones, prevail across manufacturing labor markets at state level. Moreover, a marked heterogeneity among estimated dynamic responses suggests that incentivizing permanent employment would induce stronger substitution effects on its temporary counterpart than, for example, substitution of permanent job positions arising when incentivizing temporary employment.

Fiscal policy and inequality in middle- and high-income countries: redistributive effects of tax and spending shocks

Abstract Motivated by the sharp increases in public spending following the global financial crisis, we employ the GMM Panel VAR approach at annual frequency between 2004 and 2014 to investigate the dynamic response of alternative income distribution variables to shocks imposed on tax revenues and three key components of social expenditures: social protection, health, and education. We confirm the potential of fiscal policy to reduce income inequality in the medium to longer run, but point to the differential approaches to pursue such a goal in middle- versus high-income countries. We find that the particular expenditure component under consideration matters in terms of the dynamic effect on inequality and on different parts of the income distribution, as well as in terms of the implied time profile. In middle-income countries, positive education spending shocks are the most effective in achieving better distributional outcomes over a medium run of several years. By contrast, in high-income countries, positive health spending and tax shocks have a more pronounced favorable dynamic distributional effect.

Re‐Unveiling the energy efficiency impact: Paving the way for sustainable growth in ASEAN countries

AbstractThe Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) heavily relies on fossil fuels to drive economic growth, making it one of the world's largest greenhouse gas emitters. Promoting energy efficiency has been proposed as a solution to mitigate this issue. However, the potential negative impact of energy efficiency on economic growth remains unclear. Therefore, this study aims to re‐evaluate the dynamic impact of overall energy efficiency on economic growth in ASEAN countries, considering climate change factors. Unlike prior studies, this research measures overall efficiency based on both persistent and transient components of energy efficiency. This study employs two key techniques: stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to estimate the overall energy efficiency and panel vector autoregression (PVAR) to analyze the dynamic causal effects of determinants' shocks. The findings suggest that enhancing ASEAN's overall energy efficiency could result in an 85.9% reduction in total energy consumption, indicating high levels of inefficiency in the region. While extensive energy efficiency measures might induce a temporary economic contraction in ASEAN countries, the rate of decline seems to abate over the long term. This implies that the impact of the energy efficiency shock will be most prominent during initial growth stages, progressively waning over time. Additionally, this study confirms the presence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for climate change and economic growth.

Interaction Effect of Export Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Technological Independent Innovation in China

China has made significant progress in the field of clean energy and sustainable development, with its photovoltaic industry technology leading globally. What has been the trajectory of China’s successful technological catch-up over the past two decades? Is China’s experience sustainable? To clarify the interaction logic between export trade (ET), foreign direct investment (FDI), and technological independent innovation (TII) in China, this paper uses panel data from 31 provinces and cities in the Chinese Mainland between 2000 and 2022. A panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model is constructed from a dynamic endogenous perspective to verify the interaction and regional heterogeneity among the three. The results are as follows: (1) The unified analytical framework shows a significant bidirectional “positive feedback effect” between ET and TII. However, FDI inhibits TII to a certain extent. Furthermore, the correlation between ET and FDI is weak. (2) The impact of ET on TII is most pronounced in the western region, while the central region sees the highest contribution rate of FDI to TII. The self-evolution effect of TII is most evident in the eastern region. This study provides suggestions for the government to develop an adaptation policy for local industrial technology conditions and establish a National Sustainable Systems of Innovation (NSSI) with multiple comparative advantages, and serves as a reference for establishing a “Chinese model”.