Panel Probit Model Research Articles

Determinants of the concurrent use of biomedicine and Korean Medicine: A study based on the Korean Health Panel survey (2008–2014)

IntroductionThis study was conducted to analyze the factors associated with the concurrent use of biomedicine and Korean Medicine (KM) in an outpatient medical service using data from the Korean Health Panel (KHP) 2008–2014. MethodUsing the KHP, which is an ongoing longitudinal survey of a nationally representative Korean population, descriptive analysis was employed to present the frequency and percentage of concurrent use of biomedicine and KM with those who only used biomedicine. In addition, factors associated with the types of medical institutions receiving outpatient medical services were analyzed using the random effects panel probit model and the random effects panel logit model. ResultsAnalysis of the KHP data from 2008 to 2014 revealed that 16–18% of the population used both biomedicine and KM services concurrently. Moreover, concurrent users were more likely to be female, over 40 years old, have a lower confidence in healthcare services quality, have chronic disease, have used medication for more than three months and to have a high mean frequency of medical services use. ConclusionIdentifying determinants associated with concurrent use of biomedicine and KM might help medical professionals and policy makers to make wise judgments, plan treatments successfully and allocate resources efficiently.

Passage of Phosphorus-free Lawn Fertilizer Laws by U.S. States

Abstract Phosphorus (P) is an essential plant nutrient, but it can pollute rivers and lakes. State laws banning P in lawn fertilizer can reduce pollutant loads from urban areas. A random effects panel probit model using nationwide data from various sources was estimated to analyze factors affecting passage of these laws. To test hypotheses regarding alternative theories, we incorporated variables relating to public interest, private interest, ideology, and diffusion literatures and found support for all of them. States with higher percentages of water area were more likely to pass P-free laws, as were those with higher percentages of employment in water-related industries. Surprisingly, states with more fertilizer companies were more likely to pass P-free laws, but the effect was quadratic. We found an S-shaped diffusion curve as a function of time. No laws have been passed since 2013, when Scotts dropped P from their Turf Builder fertilizers.

Common Determinants of the Likelihood of Currency Crises in BRICS

We consider a panel of quarterly data for five BRICS countries for the period 1996: Q1 through 2015: Q4 to examine the currency crises. In this article, we construct an exchange market pressure index using Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (KLR) methodology to identify the crisis periods. Upon identifying the crisis periods, we examine the common determinants of the currency crises in these five counties using a panel probit model with random effects. Among the 22 identified periods across five BRICS countries, Russia has seen a currency stress quite often followed by Brazil, South Africa, China and India. Our main finding is that variables such as base money to broad money, broad money growth, current account balance, exports, imports, inflation, real interest rate and real effective exchange rate (REER) work as leading indicators of the crises and major contributing factors in a country’s vulnerability to crisis. We also find that the prediction of crises is robust at cut-off probability of 50 per cent.

Dual Labour Market Intermediaries in Italy: How to Lay off “Lemons”—Thereby Creating a Problem of Adverse Selection

Using longitudinal data from the Bank of Italy that cover the period from 2004 to 2014, this paper investigates the wage- and career implications of temporary jobs across the entire wage profile via unconditional quantile regression models and dynamic panel probit models. Building on Autor’s contributions, we consider temporary jobs to be a Labour Market Intermediary that deals with job-matching problems, such as information asymmetries, search cost reductions, worker-side adverse selection, and pay-productivity gaps. Assuming that wage is a proxy for workers’ productivity, we examine the chances that temporary workers who are located in different quantiles of wage distribution have of making the transition towards a stable employment position in the primary labour market. Results clearly indicate that temporarily employed individuals suffer significant wage- and career penalties. Not only are these individuals overly concentrated in the lowest decile of wage distribution, but the career penalty associated with temporary jobs also remains stable independently of the wage/productivity quantile to which the workers belong. If firms use FTC or TWA at all, they do so to remove less productive workers, whose work contract is not renewed once expired. In light of this evidence, it is clear that the hypothesis—proposed in the economic literature—that temporary employment contracts might serve as a screening tool to identify the most productive workers who would then be offered a stable position in the primary labour market does not hold in the highly dualised labour market of Southern Europe.

Eliciting permanent and transitory undeclared work from matched administrative and survey data

We study the undeclared work patterns of Hungarian employees in relatively stable jobs, using a panel dataset that matches individual-level self-reported Labour Force Survey data with administrative records of the Pension Directorate for 2001–2006. We estimate the determinants of undeclared work using Heckman-type random-effects panel probit models, and develop a two-regime model to separate permanent and transitory undeclared work, where the latter follows a Markov chain. We find that about 6–7% of workers went permanently unreported for six consecutive years, and a further 4% were transitorily unreported in any given year. The models show lower reporting rates—especially in the permanent segment—among males, high-school graduates, those in agriculture and transport, small firms and various forms of atypical employment. Transitory non-reporting may be partly explained by administrative records missing for technical reasons. The results suggest that (1) the “aggregate labour input method” widely used in Europe can indeed be a simple yet reliable tool to estimate the size of informal employment, although it slightly overestimates the true magnitude of black work and (2) the long-term pension consequences of undeclared work may be substantial because of the high share of permanent non-reporting.

State Dependence in Poverty: The Case of Turkey

ABSTRACTDespite poverty alleviation efforts, almost a quarter of households live below the poverty line in Turkey. This article aims to examine the dynamics of poverty focusing on poverty persistence in Turkey, utilizing Income and Living Conditions panel data belonging to 2010–2013. A random effects dynamic panel probit model has been employed. In order to tackle the initial values problem Heckman’s reduced form approximation is utilized. Empirical results indicate that gender, educational attainment, employment type, and household structure have statistically significant impact on the probability of being poor. Besides, experiencing poverty has a positive impact on future poverty likelihood, signalling state dependence.

Istotność wskaźników finansowych a credit rating banku w czasie kryzysu

Głównym celem artykułu jest analiza zachowania credit ratingu banku w czasie koniunktury i dekoniunktury gospodarczej, przy uwzględnieniu wskaźników finansowych. Na podstawie przeglądu literaturowego postawiono następujące hipotezy badawcze: „Podczas kryzysu w sektorze bankowym występuje silniejszy wpływ wskaźników adekwatności kapitałowej” oraz „Noty ratingowe banków podczas dekoniunktury są niższe niż w okresie prosperity”. Do badania wykorzystano dane kwartalne z lat 1998–2016 dla europejskich banków. Postawione hipotezy zostały zweryfikowane przy użyciu panelowych uporządkowanych modeli probitowych dla długoterminowych credit ratingów banków. Przeprowadzone badania dowodzą, że w momencie kryzysu rating nadawany przez Fitch i Moody bankom jest niższy niż w okresie koniunktury w sektorze bankowym. Ponadto zauważono, iż noty S&P są niewrażliwe na analizowane zmiany.

Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models

Banking crises are rare events, but when they occur, their consequences are often dramatic. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the toolkit of early warning models that is available to policy makers by exploring the dynamics and exuberances embedded in a panel dataset that covers 22 European countries over four decades (from 1970Q1 to 2012Q4). The in- and out-of-sample forecast performances of several (dynamic) probit models are evaluated, with the objective of developing common vulnerability indicators with early warning properties. The results obtained show that adding dynamic components and exuberance indicators to the models improves the performances of early warning models significantly.

Determinants of Innovation in Selected Manufacturing Firms in India: Role of R&D and Exports

This article examines the determinants of innovation using selected manufacturing firms in India. Our study is based on 190 manufacturing firms which were surveyed from Bengaluru and Hyderabad cities in India. The results based on panel probit model reveal that exports and R&D expenditure positively and significantly affect the innovation in case of manufacturing sector. Other key factors such as import intensity, manager’s prior experience, and conducting training sessions to the employee at firm level do positively affect the innovation activities. However, firm age and capital intensity negatively affect innovation. The results suggest the policymakers to concentrate more on export orientation policies and investing in R&D through subsidising or creating more R&D incentive projects which would significantly boost innovations in India.

Generalized spatial autocorrelation in a panel-probit model with an application to exporting in China

This paper proposes a generalized spatial panel-data probit model with spatial autocorrelation of the dependent variable, the time-invariant individual shocks, and the remainder disturbances. It proposes its estimation with a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. Simulation results show that the proposed estimation method performs well in small- to medium-sized samples. This method is then applied to the analysis of export-market participation of 1451 Chinese firms between 2002 and 2006 in the prefecture-level city of Wenzhou in the province of Zhejiang. Empirical results show that two of the three forms of the hypothesized spatial autocorrelation are significant, namely the spatial lag for the dependent variable and the time-invariant firm-specific shocks, but not the time-variant shocks. Ignoring any of these significant spatial effects would lead to misspecification.

Why Do Migrant Workers Rely More Often on Referrals?

Intuitively, one can expect that migrant workers have smaller social networks in the new destination country and by that smaller probability of finding a job through referrals. However, empirical analysis of the SOEP data from 2002 to 2008 show that 41.21% of migrant workers and 31.79% of native workers found their current job through referrals. Estimation results of the panel probit model with random effects show that 7.26% statistically significant difference of the predicted probabilities of using referrals between migrant and native workers is not explained by the characteristics of the individuals and firms. In order to explain this puzzle, this paper presents a search and matching model with heterogeneous worker groups and several search channels. The firm observes the noisy signal of the productivity, the nationality and the search channel of the worker to form unbiased expectations about the true productivity of the worker. The probabilities to be hired for the two worker groups and different search channels are determined using ex-ante union bargained wage and expectations of the firm. Calibration results of the model show that even when migrant workers have smaller size of the social network, they gain more from recommendations, because their employment chances are initially much lower than employment chances of native workers.

Size and dynamics of order-of-entry effects in pharmaceutical markets

In anticipation of long-run competitive advantages, pharmaceutical companies often try to enter new markets earlier than their competitors. It is questionable, however, whether this effort is really justified, because knowledge about the expected size of these order-of-entry advantages is scarce. Apart from confirming the existence of long-run advantages for the first mover for some selected brands, the literature gives hardly any guidelines. The objective of this article is to provide the information on the existence, the size, and the dynamics of order-of-entry effects, which is necessary for deciding on the optimal moment for a launch. The author proposes a new framework—a fractional panel probit model—which is fitted to a big and representative sample. With this procedure, order-of-entry effects can be measured in a multivariate model and as absolute market share differences, which is more informative for pharmaceutical companies than former measures.

Blood pressure and cholesterol level checks as dynamic interrelated screening examinations

This study analysed the determinants of screening uptake for blood pressure and cholesterol level checks. Furthermore, it investigated the presence of possible spillover effects from one type of cardiovascular screening to another type of cardiovascular screening. A dynamic random effects bivariate panel probit model with initial conditions (Wooldridge-type estimator) was adopted for the estimation. The outcome variables were the participation in blood pressure and cholesterol level checks by individuals in a given year. The balanced panel sample of 21,138 observations was constructed from 1,626 individuals from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) between 1996 and 2008. The analysis showed the significance of past screening behaviour for both cardiovascular screening examinations. For both cardiovascular screening examinations state dependence exist. The study also shows a significant spillover effect of the cholesterol level check on the blood pressure check and vice versa. Also a poorer health status led to a higher uptake for both types of screening examinations. Changes in recommendations have to consider the fact that taking part in one type of cardiovascular screening examination can influence the decision to take part in the other type of cardiovascular screening examination.

Inter-firm differences in mergers and acquisitions: a study of the pharmaceutical sector in India

PurposeMergers and acquisitions (M&A) are common strategies of firms to increase its performance. Although the motives of M&A are different, the determinants are discreet. The purpose of this paper is to determine the factors affecting M&A activities in the Indian pharmaceutical sector.Design/methodology/approachUsing a balanced panel data of the pharmaceuticals sector in India, this study arrives at the determinants of M&A. The authors use regression techniques such as panel probit models, ordered probit models and matching techniques for a comparable and robust estimates for the factors related to M&A activities at firm level.FindingsThe empirical findings suggest that export intensity, import intensity, firm size and R&D intensity as the major determinants of M&A in the Indian pharmaceutical sector. In the context of acquisition, there is a riskiness associated with the any business strategy, for to which a firm may choose to finance the deal either via cash, stock or assets. This study further looks at the firm’s decision on the types of acquisitions and arrives at the determinants of such decisions. The factors such as capital intensity were found more important when acquisition by share was undertaken compared to others. The success of the M&A is observed by considering the financial performance of the firm measured in terms of the profit margin at firm level. Using the propensity score matching technique, this study concludes that M&A have a positive effect on the profit margin in the post-M&A scenario.Research limitations/implicationsThe study seeks to add to the existing literature and empirical work done in the field of M&A, by not only looking at determinants that motivate a firm to merge and/or acquire but also if the decision of the firm is reflected positively in the firm’s performance. The study concludes that export intensity is an important factor for the pharmaceutical firms in India since exports are a major proportion of firm’s total sales. Technology transfers as technology imports and R&D conducted by the firm are both very important for the drug manufacturers. Any gap in the flow of drugs to the market would hamper the growth of the firm. The growth of the pharmaceutical industry depends on the close collaboration between small R&D units that lack resources to sell their work and large business houses, both domestic and foreign affiliated that will provide them the required market. However, all comprehensive work has been done in this study to cover all aspects of M&A including the financial pathway taken by the firm yet, the study has certain limitations as it does not take into account the entry and exit of firms from the industry.Practical implicationsPolicies related to small and large firms should aim at making them export oriented and multinational affiliated to compete at the international market with corporate restructuring through M&A. This will help in firm’s growth and sharing of knowledge capital.Originality/valueNo such study is conducted that differentiate type of M&A and their determinants for the Indian pharma sector.

Credit Rating Downgrades and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows in the Eurozone

The current paper investigates the impact of sovereign ratings on sudden stops of capital in the context of the Eurozone. Our analysis focuses on the qualitative aspect of ratings on the hypothesis that such aspect has a concrete impact on capital movements. A panel probit model is utilized for our purposes. We distinguish between net and gross capital inflows, while we also draw a distinction between long-term and short-term oriented capital. Our results confirm the influence of sovereign ratings for the majority of our model specifications. They also appear to be most significant in the case of short-term flows.

Renewable energy development and green public policies complementarities: The case of developed and developing countries

The aim of this paper is to analyze the factors determining the choice of energy policy setting in favor of renewable energy sources. We investigate if such determinants are different between countries at different stage of development. Finally, we study if the adoption of green energy policies is characterized by complementary or substitution effects. Our analysis aims at responding at two research questions: what are the factors influencing a country's choice for a specific type of energy policy? Is it possible to identify either complementary or substitute policy interventions based on a country's level of economic development? Moreover, are developing systematically different from developed countries in manage public and private resources for renewable energies? The empirical analysis employs a panel probit model estimated over a sample of 56 countries observed between 2004 and 2011. The results show that while context variables have the same impact in developed and developing countries, public operational variables play a different role. Governments in richer countries are bound to play only a role of an arbiter. On the contrary, governments of developing countries are more directly involved in the management of energy policies. Hence, a greater impact is recognized to policies with direct involvement of the government.

Identifying the Factors Influence Turkish Deposit Banks to Join Corporate Social Responsibility Activities by Using Panel Probit Method

This study aims to determine the influencing factors of the banks to join corporate social responsibility activities. Within this scope, annual data of 23 deposit banks in Turkey for the periods between 2005 and 2015 was taken into the consideration. In addition to this situation, panel probit model was used in the analysis so as to achieve this objective. According to the results of the analysis, it was determined that there is a negative relationship between CSR activities and nonperforming loans ratio. This situation shows that banks do not prefer to make social responsibility activities in case of higher financial losses. In addition to this situation, it was also identified that there is a positive relationship between return on asset and corporate social responsibility activities of the banks. In other words, it can be understood that Turkish deposit banks, which have higher profitability, joint more CSR activities in comparison with others.

패널프로빗모형을 이용한 분가가구의 주택점유형태 결정요인에 관한 연구

패널프로빗모형을 이용한 분가가구의 주택점유형태 결정요인에 관한 연구

The influence of activity-travel patterns on the success of VTBC

ABSTRACTThe objective of this work is to verify how the complexity of activity-travel patterns may influence the propensity to change travel behaviour in the context of a Voluntary Travel Behaviour Change (VTBC) programme. Data used in this work was drawn from a VTBC programme implemented in Cagliari, Italy between 2011 and 2012, for promoting the use of an underutilised Light Rail service (LR). A descriptive comparative analysis of activity–travel patterns recorded before and after the delivery of a personalised travel plan was reported. In addition to the descriptive analysis, a panel Probit model is proposed to further understand the influence of complex trip-chaining behaviours on the propensity to change travel behaviours. The results indicate that when individuals are presented with a convenient transport alternative that allows them to flexibly chain their activities, the propensity to use a sustainable mode of transport increases.Abbreviations: ABA: activity – based analysis; AW: after work tour; BW: before work tour; CMS: casteddu mobility styles; CW: complex working day; HWC: home to work commute tour; LR: light rail; NHB: non home based tour; NNW: non work tour; NW: non working day; P&R: park and rider; PP&R: prospective park and rider; PTP: personalised travel plan; SW: simple working day; VTBC: voluntary travel behaviour change; WB: work based tour

Credit Booms Gone Bust: Replication of Schularick and Taylor (AER 2012)

SummaryThis paper replicates the results in Schularick and Taylor (American Economic Review 2012; 102(2): 1029–1061; ST hereafter). Specifically, I replicate ST's results in the ‘narrow’ sense by reproducing their calculations in the open source econometrics package gretl. (Gretl is an acronym for Gnu Regression, Econometrics and Time‐series Laboratory. It is available for Windows, Mac and Linux at www.gretl.sourceforge.net.) I also demonstrate the robustness of ST's findings to different estimation methods. I obtain qualitatively similar results to ST via Bayesian estimation of both static and dynamic panel probit models. Finally, I show that the marginal effects of credit growth on the probability of a financial crisis vary considerably across the countries in the dataset. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.