Panel Poisson Regression Research Articles

코로나19 팬데믹이 의료서비스 이용에 미친 영향 분석

This paper attempts a quantitative analysis of the extent of healthcare service utilization decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic, considering concerns about its potential long-term negative impacts on public health. Using data from the Korea Welfare Panel from 2012 to 2021, the study examines the impact of the pandemic on healthcare service usage measured by four indicators: the number of health check-ups, outpatient visits, hospital admissions, and hospital days. The analysis employs a panel Poisson regression model and includes subsample analyses for vulnerable groups such as those with chronic diseases and the elderly. The analysis results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a distinctly negative impact on the utilization of healthcare services, including health check-ups, outpatient services, and hospital admissions. This reduction in service use was especially pronounced among chronic disease patients and the elderly, who typically depend more heavily on healthcare services. The overall decrease in healthcare utilization due to the pandemic, and the fact that this decrease was more significant among vulnerable populations, is noteworthy as it may have long-term negative repercussions on public health. To accurately evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the healthcare sector and develop future countermeasures, it is necessary to analyze the negative ripple effects on public health caused by the decline in healthcare service utilization.

Driving Risk Assessment Using Near-Miss Events Based on Panel Poisson Regression and Panel Negative Binomial Regression.

This study proposes a method for identifying and evaluating driving risk as a first step towards calculating premiums in the newly emerging context of usage-based insurance. Telematics data gathered by the Internet of Vehicles (IoV) contain a large number of near-miss events which can be regarded as an alternative for modeling claims or accidents for estimating a driving risk score for a particular vehicle and its driver. Poisson regression and negative binomial regression are applied to a summary data set of 182 vehicles with one record per vehicle and to a panel data set of daily vehicle data containing four near-miss events, i.e., counts of excess speed, high speed brake, harsh acceleration or deceleration and additional driving behavior parameters that do not result in accidents. Negative binomial regression ( = 997.0, = 1022.7) is seen to perform better than Poisson regression ( = 7051.8, = 7074.3). Vehicles are separately classified to five driving risk levels with a driving risk score computed from individual effects of the corresponding panel model. This study provides a research basis for actuarial insurance premium calculations, even if no accident information is available, and enables a precise supervision of dangerous driving behaviors based on driving risk scores.

The origin of the country-of-origin image: the role of law

Purpose Country of origin has profound effects on consumer behavior; yet few studies have examined an antecedent of these effects: why some countries enjoy a positive image while others suffer a negative one. Developing an institutional theory of country image, the authors argue that weak legal institutions at the country level increase firm opportunistic behavior that expropriates consumers and decrease the product quality of local brands, thus decreasing the country’s image regarding its products and brands. Design/methodology/approach This study measures country image for products and brands using the number of valuable brands (i.e. brands included in the top 500 brands from 2008 to 2016) in a particular home country. Data concerning the rule of law in each country come from the World Bank, and data on the efficiency of countries’ judicial systems comes from Djankov et al. (2007). We also collect patent data from the US Patent and Trade Office, national culture from Hofstede Insights and GDP and GDP per capita from the World Bank as control variables. Panel Poisson regression, Tobit regression and truncated regression are used in the analyses. Findings Supporting the institutional theory of country image, both the rule of law and efficiency of the judicial systems show positive and significant effects on country image, even when economy size (GDP), degree of economic development (GDP per capita), level of technology and skill (patents) and culture are controlled. Practical implications To improve their country’s image and the brand value of local firms, policymakers should strive to strengthen legal institutions aimed at punishing firm opportunistic behavior in their countries. Originality/value Previous research on the country-of-origin effect has not yet appreciated the role of legal institutions in developing the construct of country image.

Epidemiological features of hepatitis C and its related influencing factors in Shandong province, 2007-2016

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics, dynamic trend of development and related influencing factors of hepatitis C in Shandong, China, 2007-2016, also to provide epidemiological evidence for prevention and control of HCV. Methods: National surveillance data of hepatitis C from 2007 to 2016 in Shandong was used, with distribution and clustering map of hepatitis C drawn at the county level. Panel Poisson regression was used to explore the influencing factors of hepatitis C at the city level. Results: The incidence of hepatitis C in Shandong increased from 1.49/100 000 in 2007 to 4.72/100 000 in 2016, with the high incidence mainly clustered in the urban regions in Jinan, Zibo, Weihai et al. and surrounding vicinities. Majority of the cases were young adults, with 53.16% (14 711/27 671) of them being farmers. Results from the Multiple panel Poisson regression analysis indicated that factors as: population density (aIRR=1.07, 95%CI: 1.05-1.10), number of hospital per hundred thousand people shared (aIRR=1.16, 95%CI: 1.08-1.24), expenditure of medical fee in rural (aIRR=1.21, 95%CI: 1.08-1.37) and the proportion of the tertiary industry (aIRR=1.08, 95%CI: 1.07-1.09) were all correlated to the incidence of hepatitis C. Conclusions: The incidence of hepatitis C had been increasing rapidly in recent years, in Shandong. Prevention and control of HCV should focus on high risk population. In addition, rural, especially in areas with lower economics provision should be under more attentions, so as to find more concealed cases for early treatment.

The impact of land ownership, firefighting, and reserve status on fire probability in California

The extent of wildfires in the western United States is increasing, but how land ownership, firefighting, and reserve status influence fire probability is unclear. California serves as a unique natural experiment to estimate the impact of these factors, as ownership is split equally between federal and non-federal landowners; there is a relatively large proportion of reserved lands where extractive uses are prohibited and fire suppression is limited; and land ownership and firefighting responsibility are purposefully not always aligned. Panel Poisson regression techniques and pre-regression matching were used to model changes in annual fire probability from 1950–2015 on reserve and non-reserve lands on federal and non-federal ownerships across four vegetation types: forests, rangelands, shrublands, and forests without commercial species. Fire probability was found to have increased over time across all 32 categories. A marginal effects analysis showed that federal ownership and firefighting was associated with increased fire probability, and that the difference in fire probability on federal versus non-federal lands is increasing over time. Ownership, firefighting, and reserve status, played roughly equal roles in determining fire probability, and were found to have much greater influence than average maximum temperature (°C) during summer months (June, July, August), average annual precipitation (cm), and average annual topsoil moisture content by volume, demonstrating the critical role these factors play in western fire regimes and the importance of including them in future analysis focused on understanding and predicting wildfire in the Western United States.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Scrub Typhus Transmission in Mainland China, 2006-2014.

BackgroundScrub typhus is endemic in the Asia-Pacific region including China, and the number of reported cases has increased dramatically in the past decade. However, the spatial-temporal dynamics and the potential risk factors in transmission of scrub typhus in mainland China have yet to be characterized.ObjectiveThis study aims to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of reported scrub typhus cases in mainland China between January 2006 and December 2014, to detect the location of high risk spatiotemporal clusters of scrub typhus cases, and identify the potential risk factors affecting the re-emergence of the disease.MethodMonthly cases of scrub typhus reported at the county level between 2006 and 2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. Time-series analyses, spatiotemporal cluster analyses, and spatial scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics of the scrub typhus incidence. To explore the association between scrub typhus incidence and environmental variables panel Poisson regression analysis was conducted.ResultsDuring the time period between 2006 and 2014 a total of 54,558 scrub typhus cases were reported in mainland China, which grew exponentially. The majority of cases were reported each year between July and November, with peak incidence during October every year. The spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus varied over the study period with high-risk clusters identified in southwest, southern, and middle-eastern part of China. Scrub typhus incidence was positively correlated with the percentage of shrub and meteorological variables including temperature and precipitation.ConclusionsThe results of this study demonstrate areas in China that could be targeted with public health interventions to mitigate the growing threat of scrub typhus in the country.

Study on influence of floods on bacillary dysentery incidence in Liaoning province, 2004 -2010

To understand the influence of floods on bacillary dysentery in Liaoning province. The monthly surveillance data of bacillary dysentery, floods, meteorological and demographic data in Liaoning from 2004 to 2010 were collected. Panel Poisson regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the influence of floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Liaoning. The mean monthly morbidity of bacillary dysentery was 2.17 per 100 000 during the study period, the bacillary dysentery cases mainly occurred in during July-September. Spearman correlation analysis showed that no lagged effect was detected in the influence of floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery. After adjusting the influence of meteorological factors, panel data analysis showed that the influence of floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery existed and the incidence rate ratio was 1.439 4(95%CI: 1.408 1-1.471 4). Floods could significantly increase the risk of bacillary dysentery for population in Liaoning.

The spatiotemporal expansion of human rabies and its probable explanation in mainland China, 2004-2013.

BackgroundHuman rabies is a significant public health concern in mainland China. However, the neglect of rabies expansion and scarce analyses of the dynamics have made the spatiotemporal spread pattern of human rabies and its determinants being poorly understood.MethodsWe collected geographic locations and timeline of reported human rabies cases, rabies sequences and socioeconomic variables for the years 2004-2013, and integrated multidisciplinary approaches, including epidemiological characterization, hotspots identification, risk factors analysis and phylogeographic inference, to explore the spread pattern of human rabies in mainland China during the last decade.ResultsThe results show that human rabies distribution and hotspots were expanding from southeastern regions to north or west regions, which could be associated with the evolution of the virus, especially the clade I-G. A Panel Poisson Regression analysis reveals that human rabies incidences had significant correlation with the education level, GDP per capita, temperature at one-month lag and canine rabies outbreak at two-month lag.ConclusionsThe reduction in the overall human rabies incidence was accompanied by a westward and northward expansion of the circulating region in mainland China. Higher risk of human rabies was associated with lower level of education and economic status. New clades of rabies, especial Clade I-G, played an important role in recent spread. Our findings provide valuable information for rabies control and prevention in the future.

Primary health care contribution to improve health outcomes in Bogota-Colombia: a longitudinal ecological analysis

BackgroundColombia has a highly segmented and fragmented national health system that contributes to inequitable health outcomes. In 2004 the district government of Bogota initiated a Primary Health Care (PHC) strategy to improve health care access and population health status. This study aims to analyse the contribution of the PHC strategy to the improvement of health outcomes controlling for socioeconomic variables.MethodsA longitudinal ecological analysis using data from secondary sources was carried out. The analysis used data from 2003 and 2007 (one year before and 3 years after the PHC implementation). A Primary Health Care Index (PHCI) of coverage intensity was constructed. According to the PHCI, localities were classified into two groups: high and low coverage. A multivariate analysis using a Poisson regression model for each year separately and a Panel Poisson regression model to assess changes between the groups over the years was developed. Dependent variables were infant mortality rate, under-5 mortality rate, infant mortality rate due to acute diarrheal disease and pneumonia, prevalence of acute malnutrition, vaccination coverage for diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus (DPT) and prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding. The independent variable was the PHCI. Control variables were sewerage coverage, health system insurance coverage and quality of life index.ResultsThe high PHCI localities as compared with the low PHCI localities showed significant risk reductions of under-5 mortality (13.8%) and infant mortality due to pneumonia (37.5%) between 2003 and 2007. The probability of being vaccinated for DPT also showed a significant increase of 4.9%. The risk of infant mortality and of acute malnutrition in children under-5 years was lesser in the high coverage group than in the low one; however relative changes were not statistically significant.ConclusionsDespite the adverse contextual conditions and the limitations imposed by the Colombian health system itself, Bogota’s initiative of a PHC strategy has successfully contributed to the improvement of some health outcomes.

Military Readiness: An Exploration of the Relationship Between Marksmanship and Visual Acuity

The United States military relies on visual acuity standards to assess enlistment induction and military occupational specialty eligibility, as well as to monitor soldiers' combat vision readiness. However, these vision standards are not evidence based and may not accurately reflect appropriate standards for military readiness or reflect a correlation between visual acuity and occupational performance. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between visual acuity and marksmanship performance using a single blind trial with the Engagement Skills Trainer 2000. Marksmanship performance was evaluated in 28 subjects under simulated day and night conditions with habitual spectacle prescription and contact lenses that created visual blur. Panel Poisson regression using an independent correlation structure revealed significant differences (p < 0.001) as visual acuity decreased from 20/25 to 20/50. We conclude that marksmanship performance decreases as visual acuity decreases. We believe that this relationship supports the use of a visual acuity requirement.

A Note on the Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of Some Exponential Panel Models

This paper investigates the semiparametric efficiency of the conditional maximum likelihood estimation in some panel models. The nonparametric component of the model is the unknown distribution of the fixed effect. For the exponential panel model, there exists a complete sufficient statistic for the fixed effect. When the complete sufficient statistic does not depend on the parameter of interest, the conditional maximum likelihood estimator (CMLE) achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound. In particular, the CMLE is semiparametrically efficient for the panel Poisson regression model and the panel negative binomial model.