Panel Of OECD Countries Research Articles

Public Expenditures on Social Programs and Household Consumption in China

This paper shows that increasing government social expenditures can make a substantive contribution to increasing household consumption in China. The paper first undertakes an empirical study of the relationship between the savings rate and social expenditures for a panel of OECD countries and provides illustrative estimates of their implications for China. It then applies a generational accounting framework to Chinese household income survey data. This analysis suggests that a sustained 1 percent of GDP increase in public expenditures, distributed equally across education, health, and pensions, would result in a permanent increase the household consumption ratio of 1¼ percentage points of GDP.

Stabilization effects of social spending: Empirical evidence from a panel of OECD countries

The aim of this paper is to assess the ability of social spending to smooth output shocks and to provide stabilization. The results show that overall social spending is able to smooth about 15 percent of a shock to GDP. Among its sub-categories, social spending devoted to Old Age, Health and Unemployment are those that contribute more to provide smoothing. Moreover, the stabilization effects of social spending are significantly larger in those countries where the size of social spending is higher, and in countries in which social spending is less volatile. The empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.

Coal consumption and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of OECD countries

This study examines the relationship between coal consumption and economic growth for 25 OECD countries within a multivariate panel framework over period 1980–2005. The Larsson et al. (2001) panel cointegration test indicates there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, coal consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force. The respective coefficients for real gross fixed capital formation and the labor force are positive and statistically significant whereas the coefficient for coal consumption is negative and statistically significant. The results of the panel vector error correction model reveal bidirectional causality between coal consumption and economic growth in both the short- and long-run; however, the bidirectional causality in the short-run is negative.

Renewable energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of OECD countries

This study examines the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth for a panel of twenty OECD countries over the period 1985–2005 within a multivariate framework. Given the relatively short span of the time series data, a panel cointegration and error correction model is employed to infer the causal relationship. The heterogeneous panel cointegration test reveals a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, renewable energy consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force with the respective coefficients positive and statistically significant. The Granger-causality results indicate bidirectional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in both the short- and long-run.

Did globalization restrict partisan politics? An empirical evaluation of social expenditures in a panel of OECD countries

This paper evaluates empirically how, in the course of globalization, partisan politics affected social expenditures in a panel of OECD countries. I introduce an updated indicator of government ideology and investigate its interaction with the KOF index of globalization. Two basic results emerge: First, at times when globalization proceeded at an average pace, partisan politics had no effect on social expenditures, but leftist governments increased social expenditures when globalization was proceeding rapidly. Second, policies differed in the 1980s and 1990s: Leftist governments pursued expansionary policies in the 1980s. Yet partisan politics disappeared in the 1990s, but not because of globalization.

Are real exchange rates mean reverting? Evidence from a panel of OECD countries

In our article we employ some contemporaneous panel unit root tests (Maddala and Wu, 1999; Im et al., 2003) to examine whether the real exchange rates are mean reverting. Considering a panel of 26 OECD countries from 1987 to 2006 both using monthly and quarterly observations, we find that assuming a panel framework significantly increases the power of unit root tests. As a result, we find that the nonstationarity of the real exchange rate has strongly been rejected in favour of giving support to the purchasing power parity.

Labor Market Institutions and Macroeconomic Volatility in a Panel of OECD Countries

In this paper we analyse empirically how labour market institutions influence business cycle volatility in a sample of 20 OECD countries. Our results suggest that countries characterized by high union density tend to experience more volatile movements in output, whereas the degree of coordination of the wage bargaining system and strictness of employment protection legislation appear to play a limited role for output volatility. We also find some evidence suggesting that highly coordinated wage bargaining systems have a dampening impact on inflation volatility. JEL Classification: E31, E32

Broadband Infrastructure and Economic Growth

We estimate the effect of broadband infrastructure, which enables high-speed internet, on economic growth in the panel of OECD countries in 1996-2007. Our instrumental-variable model derives its non-linear first stage from a logistic diffusion model where pre-existing voice-telephony and cable-TV networks predict maximum broadband penetration. We find that a 10 percentage-point increase in broadband penetration raises annual per-capita growth by 0.9-1.5 percentage points. Results are robust to country and year fixed effects and controlling for linear second-stage effects of our instruments. We verify that our instruments predict broadband penetration but not diffusion of contemporaneous technologies like mobile telephony and computers.

The real exchange rate of the dollar for a panel of OECD countries: Balassa–Samuelson or distribution sector effect?

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the role of productivity in the behaviour of the real exchange rate of the dollar against the currencies of a group of OECD countries. To do this, a general specification is tested, with particular attention being paid to the breakdown of the productivity variable into tradables, non-tradables and distribution sector productivity. The applied technique relies on the pool mean group estimation methodology proposed by Pesaran et al. [Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., Smith, R.P., 1999. Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels, Journal of the American Statistical Association 94 (446), 621–634] to obtain error correction models in panels without imposing equal long-run and short-run parameters. The results point to the relevance of differences in the distribution sector productivity for the real exchange rate, especially in those countries that belong to the European Union. These results are in accordance with New Open Economy Macroeconomics models predictions as far as the role of both distribution sector productivity and fiscal expenditure on the real exchange rate are concerned. Journal of Comparative Economics 36 (4) (2008) 620–632.

Financial markets’ behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance

Using a panel of OECD countries from 1960 to 2002, this paper shows that interest rates, particularly those of long-term government bonds, decrease when countries’ fiscal position improves and increase around periods of budget deteriorations. Stock market prices surge around times of substantial fiscal tightening and plunge in periods of very loose fiscal policy. In addition, the paper shows that results depend on countries’ initial fiscal conditions and on the type of fiscal consolidations: Fiscal adjustments that occur in country-years with high levels of government deficit, that are implemented by cutting government spending, and that generate a permanent and substantial decrease in government debt are associated with larger reductions in interest rates and increases in stock market prices.

A replication note on unemployment in the OECD since the 1960s: what do we know?

Nickell et al. (Econ J 115(500):1–27, 2005) argue that unemployment rates cointegrate with labour market institutions in a panel of OECD countries. This paper replicates their Maddala–Wu panel cointegration test and shows that this test is only valid when (i) the number of countries tends to infinity and (ii) the underlying country-specific cointegration tests are independent. Their finding of cointegration does not survive when small sample properties and heterogeneous cross-sectional dependencies are taken into account.

The effectiveness of subsidies revisited: Accounting for wage and employment effects in business R&D

The present paper investigates the effectiveness of public subsidies on business enterprise research in a panel of OECD countries. We contribute to the literature by explicitly distinguishing between the effects of a subsidy on R&D employment and expenditure, thereby accounting for a potential increase in scientists’ wages. We employ instrumental variable regressions to address endogeneity problems of the subsidization. The results indicate that subsidies are effective in generating additional research expenditure. Expenditure for business research increases by roughly 20% more than employment. We take this as evidence that subsidies may raise scientists’ wages given standard production functions.

Effects of parliamentary elections on primary budget deficits in OECD countries – robustness of the results with regard to alternative econometric estimators

Using an unbalanced panel of OECD countries for the period 1989 to 2005, the study tests the political budget cycle hypothesis empirically. The econometric approach is based on the equation proposed by Bohn (1998) for testing the sustainability of fiscal policy and various panel estimators. The empirical results strongly support the hypothesis of smaller primary surpluses (only) in election years. Brender and Drazen's (2005) result – an election effect exists only in new democracies – cannot be verified.

Some Preliminary Evidence on the Globalization-Inflation Nexus

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of globalization, if any, on inflation and the inflation process. We estimate standard Phillips curve equations on a panel of OECD countries over the last 25 years. While recent papers have concluded that globalization has had no significant impact, this paper highlights that trying to capture globalization effects through simple measures of import prices and/or imports to GDP ratios can be misleading. To do so, we try to extend the analysis following two different avenues. We first separate between commodity and non-commodity imports and show that the impact on inflation of commodity import price inflation is qualitatively different from the impact of noncommodity import price inflation, the former depending on the volume of commodity imports while the latter being independent of the volume of non-commodity imports. This first piece of evidence highlights the role of contestability and the insufficiency of trade volume statistics to properly describe the impact of globalization. This leads us to adopt a more systematic approach to capture the contents and not only the volume of trade. Focusing on the role of intra-industry trade, we provide preliminary evidence that this variable can account (i) for the low pass-through of import price to consumer price and (ii) for the flattening of the Phillips curve, i.e. the lower sensitivity of inflation to changes in output gap. We hence conclude that different facets of globalization, especially changes in the nature of goods traded, can be an important channel through which globalization affects the inflation process.

Unemployment and Inflation Consequences of Unexpected Election Results

The empirical evidence toward rational partisan theory of business cycles is mixed and thus inconclusive. This is due to the enormous heterogeneity of the existing empirical studies. Only a few of these test explicitly for the central theoretical innovation that post‐electoral blips in economic activity depend on the degree of the electoral surprise. Using polling data we present empirical evidence in favor of rational partisan theory for a panel of OECD countries.

Certainty Equivalence and the Excess Sensitivity of Private Consumption

For a panel of OECD countries, we show that the magnitude of the estimate for the excess sensitivity of private consumption to current income cannot be explained by a model based on certainty equivalence.

Ageing and the Relative Price of Nontradeables

textabstractIn this paper we identify the effects of ageing on the relative price of nontradeables versus tradeables. We consider two cases. In a first specification, age effects only account for short-run dynamics. An alternative case allows for permanent age effects. Estimating the respective cases by means of an ECM on a panel of OECD countries we find significant effects of demographic composition on the relative prices, even after correcting for the standard explanatory variables. Simulations based on population projections of the UN show that ageing might substantially contribute to inflationary pressures in the near future.

Productivity, convergence and policy: a study of OECD countries and industries

This paper analyses trends in labour productivity and its underlying determinants in a panel of OECD countries from 1979 to 2002. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to estimate a Malmquist measure of multifactor productivity (MFP) change. We decompose the growth in labour productivity into (i) net technological change (ii) input biased technical change (IBTC) (iii) efficiency change and (iv) capital accumulation. We analyse the effect of each of these factors in the transition towards the equilibrium growth paths of both labour productivity and per capita GDP for the OECD countries, controlling for the effects of different policies and institutions. The results indicate that on average gaps in productivity or income levels are narrowing down although there is no evidence to suggest that the entire OECD area comprises a single convergence “club”. Using kernel estimation methods we find that that labour productivity and per capita GDP are settling toward a twin peak (bimodal) distribution. Panel unit root tests over an extended (1960–2001) period provide general support for the convergence hypothesis. Analysis of the contributions of productivity growth within industries and sectoral composition changes show that aggregate productivity change is predominantly driven by ‘net’ within sector effects with very little contribution emerging from sectoral shifts (the ‘in-between’ static or dynamic effects resulting from higher or above average productivity industries gaining employment shares or low productivity industries losing shares).

Federalism, Fertility and Growth

This paper analyses the effect of federalism on fertility and growth. In a model with human capital accumulation and endogenous fertility, two regimes of education finance are compared: central and local education. Using numerical simulation, I find that local education finance yields higher growth at the price of increased inequality. Aggregate fertility may be lower or higher under federalism. Interestingly, the fertility differential is reversed: while under central finance, rich families have fewer children than poor ones (when the elasticity of substitution between children and consumption is large), the opposite may occur under local finance. The paper also tests the relationship between fertility rates and fiscal decentralisation empirically on a panel of OECD countries and finds a weak negative effect of decentralisation on total and differential (poor minus rich) fertility.

Labor Market Regulation and the Legal System

When enacting labor market regulation governments face courts that interpret and implement the legal code. We show that the incentives for governments for labor market reform increase with the uncertainty that is involved in the implementation of legal codes through courts. Given that judges have more discretion in common as opposed to civil law systems more reform activity as a response to crises should be observed in the former system. This finding is backed by evidence from a panel of OECD countries.