Panel Granger Causality Analysis Research Articles

Global competitiveness and economic growth: a one-way or two-way relationship?

The Global Competitiveness Index is treated as a standard to measure the competitiveness of countries. Leaders look at it to make policy and resource allocation decisions, because global competitiveness is expected to be related to economic growth. However, studies which analyze the empirical relationship between these two economic categories are very rare. It is still an open question in the literature whether economic growth can be used to predict future global competitiveness or the other way round. This paper empirically tests the relationship between the GCI and the economic growth rate by using a panel Granger causality analysis based on annual data for 114 countries divided into five groups by income criteria and covering the period 2006-2014. We confirm a strong unidirectional causality among the countries analyzed, i.e. GDP growth causes global competitiveness. Additionally, we find that the GCI is successful in predicting economic growth for the majority low income and OCED high income counties, but among the middle income countries this relationship exists only for large economies such as China and India.

Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment and CO2 Emissions in China: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis

Using a sample of province-level panel data, this paper investigates the Granger causality associations among economic growth (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI) and CO2 emissions in China. By applying the bootstrap Granger panel causality approach (Kónya, 2006), we consider both cross-sectional dependence and homogeneity of different regions in China. The empirical results support that the causality direction not only works in a single direction either from GDP to FDI (in Yunnan) or from FDI to GDP (in Beijing, Neimenggu, Jilin, Shanxi and Gansu), but it also works in both directions (in Henan). Moreover, we document that GDP is Granger-causing CO2 emissions in Neimenggu, Hubei, Guangxi and Gansu while there is bidirectional causality between these two variables in Shanxi. In the end, we identify the unidirectional causality from FDI to CO2 emissions in Beijing, Henan, Guizhou and Shanxi, and the bidirectional causality between FDI and CO2 emissions in Neimenggu.

Finance growth nexus across Indian states: evidences from panel cointegration and causality tests

The paper deals with finance-growth relationship across Indian states over 1980–2011 in panel cointegration and causality framework. We apply Engle–Granger two-step procedure for cointegration test in panel setting which takes care of cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across states. For panel Granger causality analysis, we employ Dumitrescu and Hurlin (Econ Model 29:1450–1460, 2012) method and apply bootstrapping to account for cross-sectional dependence. We find robust evidence of cointegration between per capita income and credit per capita. Using panel FMOLS, we find that 1 % change in credit per capita results in 0.14 % change in per capita income. Panel Granger causality test reveals that there is bi-directional causality (feedback effects) in the absence of cross-sectional dependence. However, with cross-sectional dependence, we find evidence in favour of supply leading hypothesis. Probable policy implication calls for inclusive financial development and growth strategies in order to mitigate uneven income levels across states.

Are the Twin or Triple Deficits Hypotheses Applicable to Post-Communist Countries?

​This study empirically examines the validity of the twin and triple deficits hypotheses using bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis and an annual panel data set of six post-communist countries (Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Romania, the Czech Republic, and Hungary) from 1994 to 2012. Our findings, based on panel data analysis under cross-sectional dependence and country-specific heterogeneity, support neither the twin deficits hypothesis nor its extended version, the triple deficits hypothesis, for any of the countries considered. In other words, we find no Granger-causal relationship between budget deficits and trade (or current account) deficits or among budget deficits, private savings-investment deficits, and trade deficits.

Population Ageing and Saving Rates in China, Japan and Korea: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis

The world is ageing fast and East Asia is not an exception. Among the three major East Asian countries, Japan features the eldest society in the world, while China and Korea also witness a dramatic demographic transformation. One important impact of population ageing is on saving rates. In this paper we seek to investigate the causal relationship between demographics and savings in those three countries by employing a panel of data-set and innovative econometric technique – panel Granger causality test. On balance there is evidence supporting the argument that a growing younger population causes an increase in national saving, albeit not necessarily in household saving. The results are robust against different estimation procedures and parameters.

New Proxy of Financial Development and Economic Growth in Medium-Income Countries: A Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth for 27 medium-income countries in the period 1970 to 2012. We develop a new proxy for financial development that refers to the input of real resources into the financial system and apply the panel bootstrapped approach to Granger causality. The results show, for three countries the findings support strong evidence on supply-leading hypothesis which implies that financial development induces economic growth and for six countries the findings support strong evidence on demand-following. Our results confirm for twenty one countries suggesting that their financial development does not depend on economic growth.

Electricity consumption and economic growth in transition countries: A revisit using bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis

The purpose of this paper is to revisit the Granger causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for 15 transition economies for the period 1975–2010 using a bootstrap panel causality approach that allows for both cross-sectional dependency and for heterogeneity across countries. Applying this approach, we found a unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth only in Belarus and Bulgaria; from economic growth to electricity consumption in the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and the Russian Federation; bidirectional causality only in Ukraine while no Granger causality in any direction in Albania, Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovak Republic and Slovenia. These results show that there is a limited support for the electricity-led growth hypothesis. Nevertheless these different findings provide important implications for energy strategies and policies for transition countries.

Causal relationship between trade openness, economic growth and energy consumption: A panel data analysis of Asian countries

This paper explores the causal relationship between economic growth, trade openness and energy consumption using data of 15 Asian countries. The study covers the period of 1980–2011. We have applied panel cointegration and causality approaches to examine the long-run and causal relationship between variables.Empirical results confirm the presence of cointegration between variables. The impact of economic growth and trade openness on energy consumption is found to be positive. The panel Granger causality analysis reveals the bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption, trade openness and energy consumption.

Untangling the causal relationship between government budget and current account deficits in OECD countries: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality

This study examines the causal relationship between the current account deficit and government budget deficit for eleven OECD countries by employing the panel Granger causality analysis. The econometric methodology used in this paper allows us to untangle the causal nexus between the current account deficit and government budget deficit and helps us to discriminate between competing theories on which hypothesis is applicable to these OECD countries. Among the main results, it is found that the Barro–Ricardo Equivalence hypothesis is applicable to France and the UK. When bootstrap critical values are used, our empirical findings indicate that there is bi-directional causality between the current account deficit and the government budget deficit for eleven OECD countries. The twin deficits hypothesis is supported either through the Keynesian hypothesis or through the current account targeting hypothesis.

Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the Mediterranean Region

Tourism is perceived as an important source of foreign exchange that is used for financing economic growth. This study offers a modern approach to tourism-led growth and investigates the causal relationship between tourism and economic growth in the European, Asian and African countries that border the Mediterranean Sea. The study uses panel data for the period 1998–2011, and adopts a panel Granger causality analysis developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) to assess the contribution tourism makes to economic growth in each country. The results indicate that the direction of causality between tourism and economic growth depends on the country group and tourism indicator. Furthermore, the European countries are better able to generate growth from tourism in the Mediterranean region.

Immigration, unemployment and GDP in the host country: Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis on OECD countries

This paper examines the causality relationship between immigration, unemployment and economic growth of the host country. We employ the panel Granger causality testing approach of Kònya (2006) that is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. This approach allows one to test for Granger-causality on each individual panel member separately by taking into account the contemporaneous correlation across countries. Using annual data over the 1980–2005 period for 22 OECD countries, we find that, only in Portugal, unemployment negatively causes immigration, while in any country, immigration does not cause unemployment. On the other hand, our results show that, in four countries (France, Iceland, Norway and the United Kingdom), growth positively causes immigration, whereas in any country, immigration does not cause growth.

Economic growth and financial development in Asian countries: A bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis

This study using Kónya (2006) [Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling 23, 978–992.] method of bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis, which considers the issues of cross-sectional dependency and slope heterogeneity among countries investigated simultaneously, analyzes the causality between financial development and economic growth among ten Asian countries surveyed during period 1980 to 2007. We find that the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth is sensitive to the financial development variables used in the ten Asian countries examined in this work. Moreover, our findings support the supply-leading hypothesis, as many financial development variables lead economic growth in some of the ten Asian countries surveyed, especially in China.

Immigration, Unemployment and Growth in the Host Country: Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries

This paper examines the causality relationship between immigration, unemployment and economic growth of the host country. We employ the panel Granger causality testing approach of Konya (2006) that is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. This approach allows to test for Granger-causality on each individual panel member separately by taking into account the contemporaneous correlation across countries. Using annual data over the 1980-2005 period for 22 OECD countries, we find that, only in Portugal, unemployment negatively causes immigration, while in any country, immigration does not cause unemployment. On the other hand, our results show that, in four countries (France, Iceland, Norway and the United Kingdom), growth positively causes immigration, whereas in any country, immigration does not cause growth.

Development aid, Openness to Trade and Economic Growth in Least Developed Countries: Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis

This study examines causal relations among development aid, openness to trade and economic growth in the Least Developed Countries (LDC), for the period between 1970 and 2010. The variables under scrutiny are real per capita GDP, openness to trad e ratio and total net Official Development Assistance as share of national income. By making use of a new Granger causality testing approach properly taking into account cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity issues, this paper finds no significant causality relation among foreign aid, openness to trade, and economic growth in a panel of African LDCs.

Evidence of Wagner's law from Indian states

In this paper, we test for Wagner's law for 15 Indian states. We consider nine panels of states based on geography and level of economic development. Using panel unit-root, panel-cointegration, and panel-Granger causality analysis, we unravel strong evidence of Wagner's law. However, we find that the Wagner's law relationship is consumption rather than capital expenditure driven. This is a fresh revelation and our results are robust to different model specifications.

Index trading and agricultural commodity prices: A panel Granger causality analysis

This paper investigates the causality between prices and index-based trading activity for twelve grain, livestock, and other soft commodity futures markets. We use panel Granger causality estimations based on SUR systems and Wald tests with market-specific bootstrap critical values in order to take into account the possible contemporaneous dependence across markets. Our results confirm that there is no causality between index-based positions and commodity futures prices.

Economic growth, exports and foreign direct investment in Least Developed Countries: A panel Granger causality analysis

This paper investigates potential Granger causality among the real GDP, real exports and inward FDI in Least Developed Countries for the period between 1970 and 2009. A new panel-data approach developed in Kónya (2006) [Kónya (2006), Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach, Economic Modelling, 23, 978–992] which is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values has been employed. The results indicate direct, one-period-ahead, unidirectional causality from exports to GDP in Haiti, Rwanda and Sierra Leone, and from GDP to exports in Angola, Chad and Zambia. Considering the FDI–Growth nexus, there is evidence of FDI Granger-causing GDP in Benin and Togo, and GDP Granger-causing FDI in Burkina Faso, Gambia, Madagascar and Malawi. While studying EXP–FDI relations, this paper finds that the causality is from FDI to real exports in Benin, Chad, Haiti, Mauritania, Niger, Togo and Yemen, and from real exports to FDI in Haiti, Madagascar, Mauritania, Malawi, Rwanda, Senegal and Zambia.

Index Trading and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis

Since the 2008 global food crisis, and with the new price surge in 2010-2011, agricultural commodity markets have been at the heart of the world economic concerns. It is likely that several fundamental factors (crop failures, extreme weather events, biofuel development, emerging economies growth, monetary instability) have played a role, but there are also reasons to suspect that financial markets could have been partly responsible for the price increase. Indeed, at the same time prices of commodities rose substantially, financial investments in agricultural commodities soared. This increase was mainly driven by index-based investments, that led to the 'financialization' of agricultural commodity markets.Several studies have examined the causality between commodity prices and positions on futures markets. Overall, they generate no evidence that index trading had an impact on price changes (see Irwin and Sanders (2011) for a survey). However, as stated by Sanders and Irwin (2011b), the power of the standard statistical tests might be too low. Accordingly, they suggest to consider SUR estimations to take cross-sectional dependence across markets into account. In this paper, we aim to contribute to the literature by using the panel Granger causality testing approach recently developed by Konya (2006). More precisely, we consider SUR estimation and bootstrap specific critical values. This approach does not suppose homogeneity in the panel and does not require preliminary tests for unit roots and cointegration.Our causality tests are applied to the relationship between index-based positions and futures prices on weekly data for twelve grain, livestock and other soft commodity markets (cocoa, coffee, corn, cotton, feeder cattle, live cattle, lean hogs, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar, wheat-CBOT and wheat-KCBT) over the period 2006-2010. Our results confirm the absence of direct effect between index-based trading and commodity prices.

Index Trading and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis

This paper investigates the causality between prices and index-based trading activity for twelve grain, livestock, and other soft commodity futures markets. We use panel Granger causality estimations based on SUR systems and Wald tests with market-specific bootstrap critical values in order to take into account the possible contemporaneous dependence across markets. Our results confirm that there is no causality between index-based positions and commodity futures prices.

Immigration, Unemployment and Growth in the Host Country: Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries

Immigration, Unemployment and Growth in the Host Country: Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries