Panel Convergence Research Articles

Price dispersion across Indian states: A club convergence analysis

This study examines the price convergence across 28 Indian states and 7 union territories at an aggregate and subgroups level over the period 2011–12 to 2017–18. We employ a novel approach of Phillips and Sul panel convergence technique, which accounts for transitional dynamics and heterogeneity in the panel. The results suggest price divergence and evidence of clubs across Indian states at both aggregate and subgroup level. The outcomes of this study help policymakers in addressing the price dispersion across states, which in turn improves the market integration, allocation of resources, and standard of living.

Do regional self-employment rates converge in the UK? Empirical evidence using club-clustering algorithm

This paper examines the dynamics of self-employment rates overall and by gender across the UK during the period 2004–2016. Specifically, using the panel convergence methodology suggested by Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75:1771–1855, 2007) we investigate whether self-employment rates can be characterised by a process where all regions tend to the same equilibrium (global or full convergence) or, if not, whether there are one or more clusters of regions with the same equilibrium (convergence clubs). We find that there is no global regional convergence in total and gender-specific self-employment rates. However, two convergence clubs of regions with lower self-employment rates are found along with a group of non-convergent regions which have higher self-employment rates and somewhat higher rates of growth in self-employment. We also show that gender differences in convergence patterns across UK exist.

Productivity Convergence of High-Tech Automotive Industry in Asian

This study is attempting to study the convergence of high-technology productivity of the automotive industry in Asia. This study uses time series data collected from 10 Asian countries from 2002-2016. In addition, this study was tested using the panel method proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007a), to identify whether the convergence of automotive technology high-tech productivity convergence or divergence. The results for full panel convergence in this study show divergence. However, in this study there were three convergence clubs found. The first clubs are Japan, South Korea and Thailand, the second club is Indonesia and Iran while the third club is Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines. This study suggests that governments need to play an important role to implement good policies to attract more Asian countries to work with each other. This study can be summarized that economies in Asian countries experience different levels of development and the shift in economic behaviour is very different among Asian countries.

Convergence in electricity consumption across Indian states: a disaggregated analysis

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine whether the electricity consumption patterns across Indian states do converge. Design/methodology/approach This study considers 18 Indian states spanning over the period 1970-1971 and 2014-2015, using the recently developed Phillips and Sul panel convergence technique that accounts the multiple steady states. Findings The results provide the following insights. First, the authors find evidence of convergence in electricity consumption among all Indian states. This suggests that electricity consumption patterns for Indian states are converging to a common steady state. Second, to provide broader insights, we further investigate the convergence in electricity consumption among user groups such as agriculture, industry, commercial, domestic and miscellaneous. The results reveal that commercial, domestic and miscellaneous groups are also converging. Third, the non-convergence patterns in agriculture and industry enable us to investigate the possibility of clubs or the multiple common steady states. The results indicate the occurrence of three clubs in case of agriculture and two clubs in case of the industry. Fourth, this study also inspects the relative speed of convergence among the user groups. The results reveal the higher speed of convergence in case of the domestic user group. Practical implications The findings enable policymakers to formulate an appropriate energy policy to accommodate the future electricity demand across Indian states and prioritize low electricity consumption states so that they receive a greater share. Originality/value This is the first study that examines the convergence in electricity consumption across Indian states at aggregate and user groups using a new panel club convergence technique.

Global and regional stock market integration in Asia: A panel convergence approach

This paper examines global and regional stock market integration in Asia at both the aggregate and disaggregate (industry) levels by applying the Phillips-Sul (2007) tests for panel and club convergence. Over both the whole sample (1998m12–2018m3) and the two sub-sample periods (i.e., pre- and post-2008 global financial crisis periods), the Asian stock markets appear to be integrated both globally (vis-à-vis the US) and regionally (vis-à-vis Asia) at the aggregate level, although the speed of convergence has decreased after the crisis. The industry level convergence tests reveals that, notwithstanding the aggregate convergence, there are 3 (i.e., Gas & Oil, Healthcare and Technology) out of 10 industries not exhibiting panel convergence in any sample period; further, no convergence is found for Basic Materials and Consumer Services in the pre-crisis period and Telecommunications and Utilities in the post-crisis period. The club convergence tests show this was due to the existence of convergence clubs, clubs in the turn-around phase, and divergent economies in these industries. Global and regional integration exhibited similar patterns in most cases, although the former appears to be stronger than the latter in the post-crisis period. We also find that trade linkages and stock market development promote Asia's regional stock market integration but not its global integration; real interest rate differentials and the recent financial crisis have slowed down both regional and global integration, while exchange rate risk and openness only affect the former.

A multi-country convergence analysis of ecological footprint and its components

This paper seeks to test the convergence of per capita ecological footprint and its six components which include the footprints of built up, carbon, crop land, fishing ground, forest land, and grazing land in 92 countries for the period 1961–2014. Due to the inadequacies of stationarity and unit root tests to examine convergence, which basically arise from the presence of more than one equilibrium relating to groups of countries treading diverse convergence paths, we implement a combination of two club convergence approaches in the analysis. The findings demonstrate 10 convergence clubs for ecological footprint and four convergence clubs for built-up footprint. There are five convergence clubs for carbon footprint, while there are seven convergence clubs for cropland footprint and two convergence clubs for fishing ground footprint. We discover whole panel convergence for forest land footprint and two convergence clubs for grazing land footprint. The post merging analysis suggests two convergence clubs for ecological footprint, while there are six convergence clubs for cropland footprint. The foregoing result imply that policies on the environment should take into consideration the unique convergence paths of each of the cluster countries for the aggregate ecological footprint indicator as well as its components.

Bridging technology divide to improve business environment: Insights from African nations

Bridging the technology divide remains one of the contemporary business issues, yet limited scholarly attention has been devoted to exploring the gap between regional developing nations. This study examined the state of technological progress in Africa by applying an innovative two-step total factor productivity (TFP) analysis. We first estimated the TFP for 21 African countries with reference to South Africa (regional leader) and the United States (US) (international leader). We then applied the Phillips and Sul (2007) panel convergence tests. We found three convergence clubs with TFP levels relative to South Africa, where only most developed African countries have been able to catch-up. For TFP levels relative to the US, we found two convergence clubs and only a couple of countries have managed to make short-lived progress of catching-up. Our analysis has implications in terms of capitalising on new technology to create platforms for new businesses to flourish in Africa.

Convergence in Income Inequality: Further Evidence from the Club Clustering Methodology across States in the U.S.

This paper contributes to the sparse literature on inequality convergence by empirically testing convergence across states in the U.S. This sample period encompasses a series of different periods that the existing literature discusses -- the Great Depression (1929–1944), the Great Compression (1945–1979), the Great Divergence (1980-present), the Great Moderation (1982–2007), and the Great Recession (2007–2009). This paper implements the relatively new method of panel convergence testing, recommended by Phillips and Sul (2007). This method examines the club convergence hypothesis, which argues that certain countries, states, sectors, or regions belong to a club that moves from disequilibrium positions to their club-specific steady-state positions. We find strong support for convergence through the late 1970s and early 1980s, and then evidence of divergence. The divergence, however, moves the dispersion of inequality measures across states only a fraction of the way back to their levels in the early part of the twentieth century.

Stock Market Integration in Asia: Global or Regional? Evidence from Industry Level Panel Convergence Tests

This paper examines global and regional stock market integration in Asia at both the aggregate and disaggregate (industry) level by applying the Phillips-Sul (2007) tests for panel and club convergence. The main findings can be summarised as follows. In the pre-2008 crisis period, no integration/convergence of any kind is found. By contrast, in the post-crisis period, the Asian stock markets appear to be integrated both globally and regionally at the aggregate level; at the industry level, there is evidence of both global and regional integration in 6 out of 10 cases, the exceptions being Financials and Telecommunication, both in a turn-around phase, and Gas & Oil and Technology, for which there is no panel convergence. Club convergence tests reveal the existence of convergence clubs and divergent economies within the full panel, which explains why panel convergence is not found for the pre-crisis period and for the Gas & Oil and Technology sectors in the post-crisis period.

Stock Market Integration in Asia: Global or Regional? Evidence from Industry Level Panel Convergence Tests

This paper examines global and regional stock market integration in Asia at both the aggregate and disaggregate (industry) level by applying the Phillips-Sul (2007) tests for panel and club convergence. The main findings can be summarised as follows. In the pre-2008 crisis period, no integration/convergence of any kind is found. By contrast, in the post-crisis period, the Asian stock markets appear to be integrated both globally and regionally at the aggregate level; at the industry level, there is evidence of both global and regional integration in 6 out of 10 cases, the exceptions being Financials and Telecommunication, both in a turn-around phase, and Gas & Oil and Technology, for which there is no panel convergence. Club convergence tests reveal the existence of convergence clubs and divergent economies within the full panel, which explains why panel convergence is not found for the pre-crisis period and for the Gas & Oil and Technology sectors in the post-crisis period.

The Asian Currency Unit, Deviation Indicators, and Exchange Rate Coordination in East Asia: A Panel-Based Convergence Approach

Employing the panel convergence method of Phillips and Sul (2007) to the nominal deviation indicators of two recent unofficial constructions of the Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index, this paper examines the existence and extent of convergence in the movements of East Asian currencies against the ACU. Empirical results reveal that intra-East Asian exchange rate movements have not converged to form a cohesive, unified bloc where currencies share homogenous movements, regardless of whether one examines the data on intra-East Asian exchange rate movements before or after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Instead, a separate number of convergent clubs or blocs in the region have formed in recent years. Finally, and most importantly, economies in the region are, generally, converging at different speeds to two opposing poles of convergence: groups of relatively depreciating currencies, and groups of relatively appreciating currencies.

Asian Currency Unit (ACU), deviation indicators and exchange rate coordination in East Asia: A panel-based convergence approach

Employing the panel convergence method of Phillips and Sul (2007) to the nominal deviation indicators of two recent unofficial constructions of an Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index, this paper examines the existence and extent of convergence in the movements of East Asian currencies against the ACU. Empirical results reveal that intra-East Asian exchange rate movements have not converged to form one, cohesive and unified bloc where currencies share homogenous movements, regardless of whether one examines the data on intra-East Asian exchange rate movements before or after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Instead, a separate number of convergent clubs or blocs in the region have formed in recent years. Finally, and most importantly, we observe at the end of the period of our examination that economies in the region are, generally, converging at different speeds to two opposing poles of convergence, that is, groups of relatively depreciating currencies and, on the other, groups of relatively appreciating currencies.

Convergence in Income Inequality: Further Evidence from the Club Clustering Methodology Across the U.S. States

This paper contributes to the sparse literature on inequality convergence by empirically testing convergence across the U.S. States. This sample period encompasses a series of different periods that are discussed in the existing literature -- the Great Depression (1929-1944), the Great Compression (1945-1979), the Great Divergence (1980-present), the Great Moderation (1982-2007), and the Great Recession (2007-2009). This paper implements the relatively new methodology of panel convergence testing, recommended by Phillips and Sul (2007). This method examines the club convergence hypothesis, which argues that certain countries, states, sectors, or regions belong to a club that moves from disequilibrium positions to their club-specific steady-state positions. We find strong support for convergence through the late 1970s and early 1980s and then evidence of divergence. The divergence, however, moves the dispersion of inequality measures across states only a fraction of the way back to their levels in the early part of the 19th Century.

Accounting standards convergence dynamics

Purpose – This paper aims to explore convergence of accounting standards across worldwide adopted measures to investigate whether countries that have not completely adopted International Accounting Standards across the globe have displayed a tendency to act so. Design/methodology/approach – The new panel convergence methodology, developed by Phillips and Sul (2007), is employed. Findings – The empirical findings suggest that countries form distinct convergent clubs, albeit on a limited prevalence, yielding support to the notion that on a global basis firms and countries have initiated processes that will eventually lead them to a uniform pattern of employing common accounting standards. Practical implications – These findings have substantial implications on a firm level, mainly for differences in accounting quality as well as for differences in their cost of capital, thus leading the regulatory authorities to opt for further improvements in financial reporting. Originality/value – The novelties of this paper first, stem from the fact that it is the first time in the relevant literature that an empirical study attempts to formally measure whether the accounting world exhibits a tendency for accounting standards convergence or whether tactics and policies remain stagnant, acquiring drastic policy measures to speed up the convergence process. In addition, this study employs the implementation of the new methodology of panel convergence testing. This methodology has several appealing characteristics.

Bank performance and convergence during the financial crisis: Evidence from the ‘old’ European Union and Eurozone

This paper investigates the process of banking integration in the EU15 countries and the Eurozone by testing for convergence in bank efficiency among commercial banks. We use a two-step approach: First we estimate efficiency by applying an innovative methodological approach that treats banks’ non-performing loans as an undesirable output. Second, we apply the Phillips and Sul (2007) panel convergence methodology to assess the convergence process in European banking. Our results indicate an overall decline in efficiency and no evidence of group convergence following the financial crisis. However, we find the presence of club formation with typically weak convergence. The heterogeneity displayed by the transition parameters for the individual countries and the notable decrease in competition levels post 2008 highlight the impact of the financial crisis on the integration process.

Country and industry convergence of equity markets: International evidence from club convergence and clustering

This study employs the panel convergence methodology developed by Phillips and Sul (2007) to explore the convergence dynamics of international equity markets. The analysis considers both country and industry effects. While traditional portfolio management strategies usually follow a top-down procedure, assuming that country-level effects drive financial aggregates (e.g., stock returns) our empirical results suggest that the equity markets of 37 of the 42 counties in our sample do form a unified convergence club. The empirical findings, however, also show more numerous stock-price convergence clubs in certain industries. That is, country factors play a more important role in explaining the actual convergence in real stock prices than industry factors. Conversely, the volatility of stock prices exhibits much more evidence of convergence than stock prices. These findings should assist portfolio managers in the design and implementation of appropriate portfolio management strategies. Regulatory authorities also can benefit in the design of financial regulation.

The global financial crisis and integration in European retail banking

The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to investigate the integration process within the European Union retail banking sector by analysing deposit and lending rates to the household sector during the period 2003–2011. Secondly, to assess the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the banking integration process, an area that is yet unexplored. An important contribution of the paper is the application of the recently developed Phillips and Sul (2007a) panel convergence methodology which has not hitherto been employed in this area. This method analyses the degree as well as the speed of convergence, identifies the presence of club formation, and measures the behaviour of each country’s transition path relative to the panel average. The empirical results point to the presence of convergence in all deposit and lending rates to the household sector up to 2007. In sharp contrast, the null of convergence is rejected in all deposit and credit markets after the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. These results show that the global crisis has had a detrimental effect on the banking integration process. We find some convergence in a few sub-clusters of countries but the rate of convergence is typically slow and several countries are identified as diverging altogether. In addition, we find that the credit market, in general, is far more heterogeneous than the savings market.

Health expenses and economic growth: convergence dynamics across the Indian States

In this paper we explore convergence of real per capita output and health expenses across the Indian States. The new panel convergence methodology, developed by Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75:1771-1855, 2007), is employed. The empirical findings suggest that these States form distinct convergent clubs, exhibiting considerable heterogeneity in the underlying growth and health expenses factors. These findings should help policy makers in designing appropriate growth-oriented and/or health sector programs and setting priorities in their implementation.

Health Expenses: Evidence from the Club Clustering Approach

This paper explores convergence of real health expenses across the Indian states. The new panel convergence methodology developed by Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75:1771–1855, 2007) is employed. The empirical findings suggest that these states form distinct convergent clubs, exhibiting considerable heterogeneity in the underlying health expenses patterns.

Integration in European retail banking: Evidence from savings and lending rates to non-financial corporations

The aim of this paper is to investigate the integration process in the European Union retail banking sector during the period 2003–2011, by analysing deposit and lending rates to non-financial corporations. An important contribution of the paper is the application of the recently developed Phillips and Sul (2007a) panel convergence methodology which has not hitherto been employed in this area. This method analyses the degree as well as the speed of convergence, identifies the presence of club formation, and measures the behaviour of each country's transition path relative to the panel average. In addition, this is the first empirical paper that analyses the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the European retail banking integration process. The empirical results point to the presence of convergence in all deposit and lending rates to non-financial corporations up to 2007. In contrast, the null of convergence is rejected in all deposit and credit markets after the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. Although we still find slow convergence in a few sub-clusters of countries, the transition paths become very divergent, with the credit market being far more heterogeneous than the savings market.