Pandemic Uncertainty Research Articles

From pandemic uncertainty to economic recovery: Does investor sentiment still matter for stock returns?

The relationship between investor sentiment and market dynamics is a highly intriguing research topic for both academics and the financial industry. By using Spearman rank correlation analysis, this paper aims to explore investors’ decision-making behavior (rational and irrational) on stock returns during and after the COVID-19 outbreak. While irrational factors of the study were measured by the Google Search Volume Index and trading volume, rational factors were measured by profitability and size. The study used three different characteristics of subsectors manufacturing industry namely Food and Beverage, Pharmacy, and Cigarettes that are listed in the Indonesia Stock Market. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first to examine and compare the level of rationality of investors in a wide range of industries and sectors during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Our finding supports the notion that both sentiments have an effect on stock returns indicating that cognitions, emotions, and the noise of traders still have an impact on the market. While overall rational sentiment has a more significant correlation with stock returns during the economic recovery phase, there was a highly significant correlation between irrational factors and stock returns during pandemic uncertainty conditions. Moreover, investors tend to be irrational and overreact when making investment decisions in Cigarette sectors during the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, after the pandemic, the correlation of rational sentiment of investors toward the Pharmacy industry is still higher than others.

Nonlinear effects of pandemic uncertainty on depression, pandemic preventive behavior intentions, and positive life attitudes: Moderating effects of high and low uncertainty grouping.

COVID-19 is difficult to end in a short time and people are still facing huge uncertainties. Since people's lives are gradually returning to normal, the sense of control and intolerance of uncertainty, which were mainly focused by past studies, are not specific to COVID-19 and will be more influenced by some factors unrelated to the pandemic. Therefore, they may be difficult to accurately reflect the individuals' perceptions of uncertainty. Besides, past research just after the outbreak mainly investigated people in high levels of uncertainty, we don't know the impact of uncertainties on individuals' psychological states when people gradually recovered their sense of control. To solve these problems, we proposed the concept of "pandemic uncertainty" and investigated its impact on people's daily lives. During October 20, 2021 to October 22, 2021, this study obtained data about uncertainty, depression, positive attitude, pandemic preventive behavior intentions, personality, and social support from 530 subjects using convenient sampling. The subjects were all college students from the Dalian University of Technology and Dalian Vocational and Technical College. According to the distribution of uncertainty, we divided the dataset into high and low groups. Subsequently, by using uncertainty as the independent variable, the grouping variable as the moderating variable, and other variables as the control variables, the moderating effects were analyzed for depression, positive attitude, and pandemic preventive behavior intentions, respectively. The results showed that the grouping variable significantly moderate the influence of uncertainty on positive attitude and pandemic preventive behavior intentions but had no significant effect on depression. Simple slope analysis revealed that high grouping uncertainty significantly and positively predicted positive attitude and pandemic preventive behavior intentions, while low grouping effects were not significant. These results reveal a nonlinear effect of pandemic uncertainty on the pandemic preventive behavior intentions and positive life attitudes and enlighten us about the nonlinear relationship of psychological characteristics during a pandemic.

Assessing the COVID-19 pandemic impact on tourism arrivals: The role of innovation to reshape the future work for sustainable development

The current COVID-19 pandemic has generated unprecedented disruption in the tourism sector, requiring innovative solutions to reshape future work for sustainability. Despite the several benefits of tourism and innovation, studies examining the interlinkages among tourism, pandemic uncertainty, and innovations for sustainability are rare. To fill this gap, this paper investigates the impact of the pandemic on tourism arrivals, and the effects of tourism arrivals and pandemic impacts on the sustainable development of France. The paper further considers the innovation influences on pandemic uncertainty to consider it key for the control of the pandemic. Autoregressive distributed lag results based on 25 years of historical data show that the immediate effects of pandemic discussion on tourism arrivals are insignificant. However, in the long run, such effects become significantly negative, revealing that a rise in pandemic discussion reduces tourism arrivals in France. We find that tourism arrivals and pandemic discussions have positive significant effects on the sustainability of France. The tourism arrivals and pandemic discussion interaction results reveal that tourists who are aware of the pandemic significantly contribute to sustainability. Significant evidence shows that a rise in innovation helps to reduce pandemic uncertainty. However, innovation's short-term effects are more prominent compared with the long-term effects, indicating that the pandemic can be countered in the short run with the help of innovative solutions. Thus, relying on innovation, especially innovations related to COVID-19 will reduce the pandemic's risk. Our results were robust to various econometric methodologies. We have drawn policy implications to focus on tourism development and constant innovations for sustainable recovery.

Extreme spillover effect of COVID-19 pandemic-related news and cryptocurrencies on green bond markets: A quantile connectedness analysis

We provide the first empirical study on the role of panic and stress related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including six uncertainties and the four most traded cryptocurrencies, on three green bond market volatilities. Based on daily data covering the period from January 1, 2020 to January 31, 2022, we combine Diebold and Yilmaz's (2012, 2014) time domain spillover approach and Ando et al.'s (2022) quantile regression framework to investigate the time-frequency spillover connectedness among markets and measure the direction and intensity of the net transmission effect under extreme negative and positive event conditions, and normal states. We further provide novel insights into the green finance literature by examining sensitivity to quantile analysis of the net transfer mechanism between green bonds, cryptocurrencies, and pandemic uncertainty. Regarding the network connectedness analysis, the results reveal strong net information spillover transmission among markets under the bearish market. In extremely negative event circumstances, the MSCI Euro green bond acts as the leading net shock receiver in the system, whereas COVID-19 fake news appears as the largest net shock contributor, followed by BTC. According to sensitivity to quantile analysis, the net dynamic shock transfer mechanism is time-varying and quantile-dependent. Overall, our work uncovers crucial implications for investors and policymakers.

Organic Virtualization for Medium Size Enterprise during Pandemic Uncertainty

Organic Virtualization for Medium Size Enterprise during Pandemic Uncertainty

How Much Did Pandemic Uncertainty Affect Real-Estate Speculation? Evidence from On-Market Valuation of For-Sale Versus Rental Properties

How Much Did Pandemic Uncertainty Affect Real-Estate Speculation? Evidence from On-Market Valuation of For-Sale Versus Rental Properties

Scheduling Lockdowns Under Conditions of Pandemic Uncertainty

Scheduling Lockdowns Under Conditions of Pandemic Uncertainty

Revisiting the impact of foreign portfolio investment on stock market performance during COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty: Evidence from India

This paper re-examines the causality between stock returns and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) flows in the Indian context during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the Covid-19 index constructed by Narayan et al. [19] and the Toda and Yamamoto Granger causality test, the study reveals that bi-directional causality runs from FPI flows to stock returns in the early period of the Covid-19 pandemic. Whereas after the peak of the pandemic, there is a unidirectional causality that runs from FPI flows to stock returns.•Bi-directional causality runs from FPI flows to stock return during the initial period of COVID.•In the second period, unidirectional causality runs from FPI flows to stock returns

Estimating the link between trade uncertainty, pandemic uncertainty and food price stability in Togo: New evidence for an asymmetric analysis

AbstractGlobally, the outbreak of COVID‐19 and the associated containment measures adopted by governments are causing disruptions that sow uncertainty in several sectors of the economy. In this study, we explore the asymmetric impact of pandemic uncertainty and global trade policy on food prices in Togo. The study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) framework and causality tests for the period 2000 M1–2021 M5. The results show that the different types of uncertainty affect food price stability in the short and long run, but the shock is more pronounced in the case of pandemic uncertainty, as they are sudden and disrupt food price stability. The main findings remain significant when we use various alternative methods and estimation techniques. However, our results suggest that the Togolese food market is facing pandemic uncertainty and trade policy, which should lead policymakers and stakeholders to take corrective measures to control losses.

Uncertainty, risk aversion and corporate performance: evidence from the Asia-Pacific region

We investigate the impacts of global, regional, and pandemic uncertainties on firm performance in the Asia-Pacific region. Using the fixed effects panel-data analysis for 5979 non-financial listed firms in five developed Asia-Pacific countries (Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, and Australia) from 2007 to 2021, the results show that world, regional and pandemic uncertainties negatively affect firm performance in the region at different levels. Further, the study discloses that the pandemic uncertainties affected firm performance more strongly than world uncertainties and regional uncertainties. The results also demonstrate the moderating effect of risk aversion on the uncertainty–firm performance relationship. In particular, low leverage and high current ratio help reduce the adverse impacts of uncertainty on corporate performance in the Asia-Pacific region.

An optimization model for the design of supply chains considering disruptions from pandemic uncertainty and infection trends

Supply chain design has been an extensively researched area of study especially given how companies all around the world seek to optimize system performance. The past years have highlighted the importance of creating lean supply chains in order to reduce costs and improve efficiency. However, the uncertainties brought by the COVID-19 pandemic have challenged global supply chains with constraints on labor and capacity. Decision makers are now focusing on creating a balance between agile and lean systems because of these disruptions. A mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model for the design of supply chains under a pandemic scenario has been developed in this regard. The model considers uncertainties brought about by the imposition of government restrictions on the operations of supply chains. Specifically, the model integrates forecasts on the likely degree of restrictions that may be imposed on a given network. It then examines the interdependency between infection trends and uncertainties on customer demand, operational capacity, and facility connections. Scenarios involving different infection trend types were used to test model behavior and variable relationships. The numerical experiments yielded results showing that supply chains need to anticipate and hedge against increasing infection trends. Failure to do so could lead to incurring as much as 18% in additional total system costs. The experiments further demonstrated that additional facilities with low setup costs but higher operating costs could be selected as insurance for possible declines in operating capacity or abrupt spikes in demand.

Heuristic responses to pandemic uncertainty: Practicable communication strategies of "reasoned transparency" to aid public reception of changing science.

Scientific uncertainty during pandemic outbreaks poses a challenge for health communicators. Debates continue over the extent to which health officials should be transparent about uncertainty and the extent to which they should suppress uncertainty and risk losing the public's trust when information changes. The middle ground, the concept of "reasoned transparency," proposes that communicators focus on interpreting uncertainty to the public in ways informed by risk research. However, little guidance exists for health officials on how to do so in this context. After conducting a series of one-to-one interviews about people's coronavirus disease 2019 information habits, we identified significant trends in the heuristics that people depended on to process uncertainty. Based on those trends, we propose health communicators use narratives of science as evolving to set expectations for change, and that when changes do occur, health communicators note divergences from the past and avoid simply replacing old information with new information.

The Effects of Household Debt and Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth in the Shadow of the Pandemic

In a sample of 34 countries during 1965Q2 to 2021Q3, this paper offers an empirical analysis of how household debt and oil price shocks influence economic growth in the shadow of the pandemic. We exploit the quarter lags inherent in the response of debt and the oil price to output to pin down the relationship between household debt, the oil price, and economic growth in an unrestricted panel VAR model. We find that household debt has a short-term positive impact on economic growth, and this impact is lagged, while oil price shocks have a negative effect on economic growth. Pandemic uncertainty has an obvious and positive effect on household debt, while it has an obvious and negative effect on economic growth and oil price. The results hold under several robustness tests.

Comparative Analysis of Socioeconomic Models in COVID-19 Pandemic

Certain features of socioeconomic models can be distinctly determined in different countries and regions. However, such models are quite flexible under external and internal influences. Their changes can be observed under the impact of unpredictable factors, the COVID-19 pandemic being one. The aim of the work is to identify differences in the structure of socioeconomic models under the influence of the pandemic. The object of the study is the socioeconomic models of various states. The subject of the study is the transformation of socioeconomic models at different stages of the pandemic. Research methods include analysis of statistical data, correlation and comparative analysis, and graphical methods of presenting results. A comparison of data from the most well-known socioeconomic models was carried out for the first time. It is determined that the countries of the Chinese model adopted restrictive measures of high Stringency Index. The countries of the Japanese model used unique crowd management methods, and the countries of the Scandinavian, German and Anglo-Saxon models resorted to unprecedented monetary injections into the social and economic spheres. It was revealed that quarantine measures eventually cost countries less than monetary injections. It was shown that a decrease in the Pandemic Uncertainty Index stabilized the economic behavior of the population and businesses and increased the volume of export-import operations. It was found that the pandemic affected the economy indirectly through the level of uncertainty and rigidity of preventive measures. It is assumed that the intensity and severity of measures could be influenced by global trends leading to certain types of preventive measures rather than by the COVID-19 statistics of a particular country.

On the nexus of pandemic, environment, and health

ABSTRACT This study estimates the impacts of pandemic uncertainty on environmental quality in the United States (U.S.). To do so, we introduce a pandemic uncertainty dataset from 1985 to 2021 that will be helpful for a single country, a group of countries, and firm-level analyses. Our baseline models confirm that pandemic uncertainty improves environmental quality, however, it reduces labour force participation. In addition, the income level helps to improve environmental quality.

Capacity assessment to secure COVID-19 waste treatment in Vietnam.

The accelerated generation of COVID-19 waste under the Delta-fuelled outbreak placed a sudden burden on waste disposal in Vietnam. To secure the treatment of COVID-19 waste amid the pandemic uncertainty, treatment capacity was assessed by determining treatment occupancy rate—the ratio of estimated demand to calculated capacity—both nationally and in Ho Chi Minh City. At the general occupancy rate for COVID-19 waste treatment of 7.4%, the country was capable of handling COVID-19 waste, with a capacity to treat 62 191 t month−1. However, Ho Chi Minh City became overwhelmed, indicated by a treatment occupancy rate of up to 780% during the Delta outbreak, as the unanticipated growth of demand for COVID-19 waste treatment caused waste to back up. The assessment results, in addition to current legislation, support collaboration in waste treatment as a solution to using existing resources to address the acute shortage of treatment capacity, so as to secure COVID-19 waste treatment. The findings could be used by other developing countries to tackle the waste problem in the pandemic era.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10163-022-01529-z.

Liquidity Pricing Risk and Crude Oil Market: Analyzing the Liquidity as a Priced Factor in Yields during the Pandemic Uncertainty

The liquidity risk can impact the transaction execution with the significant losses. In the crude oil market, this work examines the market liquidity as a priced risk factor in yields. This area may considerably matter to be investigated, while an unprecedented slump is observed in the crude oil price during the pandemic period. The analysis is derived through the time series and multivariate algorithm methods. Pre-pandemic uncertainty and in the era of easing coronavirus-related restrictions, the liquidity was not priced in returns of the same trading session. In the period of economic restrictions, the crude oil trading was exposed to the liquidity risk for the same trading session. This risk was compensated by a premium return in environments of price uncertainty. In this debate, the liquidity risk was a priced risk factor in yields. Evidence from the VAR findings reports, that the past time series of the liquidity was priced in returns before the pandemic crisis takes place. Post-easing economic restrictions and in the era of pandemic-related restrictions, the past times series of the liquidity was not priced in returns. This quantification of the market liquidity may be more applicable for the liquidity risk management in the crude oil market.

Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Pandemic Uncertainty on International Tourism: What do We Learn From COVID-19?

Uncertainty is an overarching aspect of life that is particularly pertinent to the present COVID-19 pandemic crisis; as seen by the pandemic’s rapid worldwide spread, the nature and level of uncertainty have possibly increased due to the possible disconnects across national borders. The entire economy, especially the tourism industry, has been dramatically impacted by COVID-19. In the current study, we explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and pandemic uncertainty (PU) on inbound international tourism by using data gathered from Italy, Spain, and the United States for the years 1995–2021. Using the Quantile on Quantile (QQ) approach, the study confirms that EPU and PU negatively affected inbound tourism in all states. Wavelet-based Granger causality further reveals bi-directional causality running from EPU to inbound tourism and unidirectional causality from PU to inbound tourism in the long run. The overall findings show that COVID-19 has had a strong negative effect on tourism. So resilient skills are required to restore a sustainable tourism industry.

PT. Pertamina Retail: Indonesian fuel retail expansion dilemma in pandemic COVID-19

Learning outcomes Students are expected to integrate decision-making tools and frameworks to create decisions under uncertainty. Students are expected to understand the general business process of fuel retail industry. Case overview/synopsis PT. Pertamina Retail (PTPR) is a subsidiary of PT. Pertamina, an Indonesian state-owned oil and natural gas company. In the first quarter of 2020, PTPR’s sales volume decreased due to the COVID-19 pandemic’s large-scale social restrictions. Iin Febrian was just appointed as President Director in March 2020; he must formulate a survival strategy facing COVID-19 pandemic uncertainties. The case elaborates on PTPR’s decision to expand immediately or hold. Scenarios and expected values have been given to simplifying the calculation of a decision tree. The case also challenges students to think critically on providing a strategy to survive during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond using decision tree analysis and BCG Matrix or Ansoff Matrix. Complexity academic level BA level and MBA program in Decision Analysis Course or Strategic Management Course. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 11: Strategy.

The Development of the Fear of COVID-19 Pandemic Scale and the Pandemic Uncertainty Scale

The Development of the Fear of COVID-19 Pandemic Scale and the Pandemic Uncertainty Scale