Pandemic Preparedness Research Articles

Convalescent Plasma and Other Antibody Therapies for Infectious Diseases-Lessons Learned from COVID-19 and Future Prospects.

Antiviral passive antibody therapy includes convalescent plasma, hyperimmune globulin, and monoclonal antibodies. Passive antibodies have proven effective in reducing morbidity and mortality for SARS-CoV-2 and other infectious diseases when given early in the disease course with sufficiently high specific total and neutralizing antibody levels. Convalescent plasma can be delivered to patients before vaccination implementation or novel drug production. Carefully designed and executed randomized controlled trials near the pandemic outset are important for regulatory bodies, healthcare workers, guideline committees, the public, and the government. Unfortunately, many otherwise well-designed antibody-based clinical trials in COVID-19 were futile, either because they intervened too late in the disease or provided plasma with insufficient antibodies. The need for early treatment mandates outpatient clinical trials in parallel with inpatient trials. Early outpatient COVID-19 convalescent plasma transfusion with high antibody content within 9days of symptom onset has proven effective in blunting disease progression and reducing hospitalization, thus reducing hospital overcrowding in a pandemic. Convalescent plasma offers the opportunity for hope by enabling community participation in outpatient curative therapy while monoclonal therapies, vaccines, and drugs are being developed. Maintaining the appropriate infrastructure for antibody infusion in both outpatient and inpatient facilities is critical for future pandemic readiness.

The mediating role of SARS-CoV-2 variants between income and hospitalisation due to COVID-19: A period-based mediation analysis.

The mechanisms facilitating the relationship between low income and COVID-19 severity have not been partitioned in the presence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC). To address this, we used causal mediation analysis to quantify the possible mediating role infection with VOC has on the relationship between neighbourhood income (exposure) and hospitalisation due to COVID-19 among cases (outcome). A population-based cohort of 65,629 individuals residing in British Columbia, Canada, was divided into three periods of VOC co-circulation in the 2021 calendar year whereby each period included co-circulation of an emerging and an established VOC. Each cohort was subjected to g-formula mediation techniques to decompose the relationship between exposure and outcome into total, direct and indirect effects. In the mediation analysis, the total effects indicated that low income was associated with increased odds of hospitalisation across all periods. Further decomposition of the effects revealed that income is directly and indirectly associated with hospitalisation. The resulting indirect effect through VOC accounted for approximately between 6 and 13% of the total effect of income on hospitalisation. This study underscores, conditional on the analysis, the importance of addressing underlying inequities to mitigate the disproportionate impact on historically marginalised communities by adopting an equity lens as central to pandemic preparedness and response from the onset.

Utilizing large language models in infectious disease transmission modelling for public health preparedness

IntroductionOpenAI's ChatGPT, a Large Language Model (LLM), is a powerful tool across domains, designed for text and code generation, fostering collaboration, especially in public health. Investigating the role of this advanced LLM chatbot in assisting public health practitioners in shaping disease transmission models to inform infection control strategies, marks a new era in infectious disease epidemiology research. This study used a case study to illustrate how ChatGPT collaborates with a public health practitioner in co-designing a mathematical transmission model. MethodsUsing natural conversation, the practitioner initiated a dialogue involving an iterative process of code generation, refinement, and debugging with ChatGPT to develop a model to fit 10 days of prevalence data to estimate two key epidemiological parameters: i) basic reproductive number (Ro) and ii) final epidemic size. Verification and validation processes are conducted to ensure the accuracy and functionality of the final model. ResultsChatGPT developed a validated transmission model which replicated the epidemic curve and gave estimates of Ro of 4.19 (95 % CI: 4.13- 4.26) and a final epidemic size of 98.3 % of the population within 60 days. It highlighted the advantages of using maximum likelihood estimation with Poisson distribution over least squares method. ConclusionIntegration of LLM in medical research accelerates model development, reducing technical barriers for health practitioners, democratizing access to advanced modeling and potentially enhancing pandemic preparedness globally, particularly in resource-constrained populations.

Preparedness for an upcoming pandemic. Recommendations by the National Academy of Medicine of Mexico

Preparedness for an upcoming pandemic. Recommendations by the National Academy of Medicine of Mexico

Healthcare workers' experiences protecting themselves and their families during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021.

We characterized experiences and strategies used by frontline healthcare workers to prevent severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-related coronavirus transmission at work and to household members during the coronavirus disease pandemic. Alongside an online questionnaire (n = 234), remote semi-structured interviews (n = 23: 15 clinicians, 8 non-clinicians) were conducted in 2021. Mitigation challenges and facilitators were identified from data to represent experiences as a process considering the before, during, and after work shifts. Journey mapping was utilized to visually describe how healthcare workers experienced the stages of the work environment, leaving work, commuting home, and the home environment, and strategies implemented to stay safe. Major facilitators included the uptake of coronavirus disease vaccines and testing, information regarding virus transmission, and adequate personal protective equipment. The most critical challenges identified included a lack of designated areas for end-of-day disinfection, changing rooms, showers, and lockers in the leaving work stage. Psychosocial and environmental factors must be considered in future hospital pandemic preparations.

Toward better pandemic governance and preparedness: South Korea’s whole-of-nation approach to COVID-19

BackgroundThe profound impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has led to an increased demand for sustainable pandemic governance practices. This study explored emerging hybrid governance practices that provide robust evidence on how to address the complex challenges of pandemics effectively. South Korea, which was severely affected by COVID-19, has implemented a novel governance approach using a whole-of-nation (WoN) model. This hybrid pandemic governance approach, which integrates both whole-of-government and whole-of-society approaches, has enabled synergistic and cohesive multi-sectoral coordination among all stakeholders (public authorities, private enterprises, and civil society) to address multifaceted challenges collectively and strengthen their resilience capacity. This study investigated South Korea’s WoN practices and their embedded context and identified key governance enablers facilitating this approach.MethodsThis study employed a case study design based on an extensive analysis of policy and program documents, drawing on South Korea’s publicly available data from January 1, 2020 to March 30, 2023. It assessed six system-level collaborative pandemic governance practices and key enablers, all of which were intended to fortify the country’s pandemic response.ResultsThe primary areas of the country’s WoN governance practices for COVID-19 control were (i) whole-of-government policy-making and response, (ii) COVID-19 testing system, (iii) digital surveillance of COVID-19, (iv) COVID-19 triage and treatment system, (v) domestic vaccine production, and (vi) community engagement. Key governance enablers for implementing the WoN model were establishing a legal foundation, ensuring decisive and strong governance and leadership, increasing public investment, applying a whole-of-health approach with augmented investment in public health, enhancing crisis communication, and mobilizing local leaders and civil society organizations in the national public health response.ConclusionsIn exploring innovative approaches to pandemic governance for increased efficacy, responsiveness, and impact, the WoN approach emerged as highly relevant. This example of emerging practice allows policy-makers to re-evaluate their governance strategies and initiatives to improve multi-agency partnerships across the country in their pandemic-preparedness planning.

Avian Influenza Virus A(H5Nx) and Prepandemic Candidate Vaccines: State of the Art.

Avian influenza virus has been long considered the main threat for a future pandemic. Among the possible avian influenza virus subtypes, A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b is becoming enzootic in mammals, representing an alarming step towards a pandemic. In particular, genotype B3.13 has recently caused an outbreak in US dairy cattle. Since pandemic preparedness is largely based on the availability of prepandemic candidate vaccine viruses, in this review we will summarize the current status of the enzootics, and challenges for H5 vaccine manufacturing and delivery.

Evaluation study of the urban governance of the COVID-19 crisis in the city of Antwerp

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has demanded crisis management at all governance levels. While most research has focused on responses of national governments, city-level governance had significant potential to develop tailored approaches. This study explored how the local COVID-19 response was organised and adapted to the specific city population and context in the City of Antwerp, Belgium.MethodsA case study using semi-structured interviews was set up with 20 key informants with a central role in the coordination and implementation of the city-level COVID-19 response in Antwerp. Thematic analysis of transcripts was guided by an adapted version of the OECD risk management cycle.ResultsRespondents’ accounts provide a granular understanding of pandemic preparedness, crisis management, and response and adaptation to the COVID-19 crisis in a mid-size European city. Its size was large enough to have a strong capacity within its government bodies, to utilise the expertise of strong partners in the area and to mobilise a critical mass for action, yet small enough to quickly establish connections and trust. In addition to a universal approach, they developed tailored responses to specific neighbourhoods and groups. Well-established community and organisational ties enhanced the effectiveness of grassroots initiatives. The perceived feeling of joint action contributed to a strong collective agency, but respondents noted the need for a system for monitoring and learning.ConclusionsLocal governments are important to develop tailored strategies and organise a locally relevant crisis response in cities. They need expertise and agency, with enough flexibility to experiment. To harness promising practices and avoid repeating errors in future crises, it is crucial to develop a system that better evaluates and monitors local responses, before, during and after crises.

Health and non-health benefits and equity impacts of individual-level economic relief programs during epidemics/pandemics in high income settings: a scoping review

BackgroundEconomic relief programs are strategies designed to sustain societal welfare and population health during a regional or global scale infectious disease outbreak. While economic relief programmes are considered essential during a regional or global health crisis, there is no clear consensus in the literature about their health and non-health benefits and their impact on promoting equity.MethodsWe conducted a scoping review, searching eight electronic databases from January 01, 2001, to April 3, 2023, using text words and subject headings for recent pathogens (coronavirus (COVID-19), Ebola, Influenza, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), HIV, West Nile, and Zika), and economic relief programs; but restricted eligibility to high-income countries and selected diseases due to volume. Title and abstract screening were conducted by trained reviewers and Distiller AI software. Data were extracted in duplicates by two trained reviewers using a pretested form, and key findings were charted using a narrative approach.ResultsWe identified 27,263 de-duplicated records, of which 50 were eligible. Included studies were on COVID-19 and Influenza, published between 2014 and 2023. Zero eligible studies were on MERS, SARS, Zika, Ebola, or West Nile Virus. We identified seven program types of which cash transfer (n = 12) and vaccination or testing incentive (n = 9) were most common. Individual-level economic relief programs were reported to have varying degrees of impact on public health measures, and sometimes affected population health outcomes. Expanding paid sick leave programs had the highest number of studies reporting health-related outcomes and positively impacted public health measures (isolation, vaccination uptake) and health outcomes (case counts and the utilization of healthcare services). Equity impact was most often reported for cash transfer programs and incentive for vaccination programs. Positive effects on general well-being and non-health outcomes included improved mental well-being and quality of life, food security, financial resilience, and job security.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that individual-level economic relief programs can have significant impacts on public health measures, population health outcomes and equity. As countries prepare for future pandemics, our findings provide evidence to stakeholders to recognize health equity as a fundamental public health goal when designing pandemic preparedness policies.

Pandemic preparedness and health system resilience in 14 European countries.

To assess national pandemic preparedness and response plans from a health system perspective to determine the extent to which implementation strategies that support health system performance have been included. We systematically mapped pandemic preparedness and response implementation strategies that improve resilience to pandemics onto the Health System Performance Assessment Framework for Universal Health Coverage. Using this framework, we conducted a document analysis of 14 publicly available national influenza pandemic preparedness plans, submitted to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, to assess how well health system functions are accounted for in each plan. Implementation strategies found in national influenza pandemic preparedness plans do not systematically consider all health system functions. Instead, they mostly focus on specific aspects of governance. In contrast, little to no mention is made of implementation strategies that aim to strengthen health financing. There was also a lack of implementation strategies to strengthen the health workforce, ensure availability of medical equipment and infrastructure, govern the generation of resources and ensure delivery of public health services. While national influenza pandemic preparedness plans often include provisions to support health system governance, implementation strategies that support other health system functions, namely, resource generation, service delivery, and in particular, financing, are given less attention. These oversights in key planning documents may undermine health system resilience when public health emergencies occur.

Focus, vigilance, resilience: towards stronger infectious disease surveillance, threat detection and response in the EU/EEA.

This perspective summarises and explains the long-term surveillance framework 2021-2027 for infectious diseases in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) published in April 2023. It shows how shortcomings in the areas of public health focus, vigilance and resilience will be addressed through specific strategies in the coming years and how these strategies will lead to stronger surveillance systems for early detection and monitoring of public health threats as well as informing their effective prevention and control. A sharper public health focus is expected from a more targeted list of notifiable diseases, strictly public-health-objective-driven surveillance standards, and consequently, leaner surveillance systems. Vigilance should improve through mandatory event reporting, more automated epidemic intelligence processing and increased use of genomic surveillance. Finally, EU/EEA surveillance systems should become more resilient by modernising the underlying information technology infrastructure, expanding the influenza sentinel surveillance system to other respiratory viruses for better pandemic preparedness, and increasingly exploiting potentially more robust alternative data sources, such as electronic health records and wastewater surveillance. Continued close collaboration across EU/EEA countries will be key to ensuring the full implementation of this surveillance framework and more effective disease prevention and control.

Assessing Immediate and Lasting Impacts of COVID-19-Induced Isolation on Green Space Usage Patterns.

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly influenced urban lifestyles, particularly the utilization of green spaces. While existing studies have primarily focused on the immediate effects of COVID-19-induced isolation, less attention has been given to the enduring impacts on green space usage patterns. This study addresses this gap by conducting three comprehensive surveys in Dezhou, China-before, during, and after the first wave of social isolation (December 2019, March 2020, December 2020). These surveys assessed socioeconomic conditions, commuting habits, green space usage habits, and landscape preferences, specifically focusing on usage frequency, duration of stays, and activities undertaken. Using Mann-Whitney U tests and Spearman's rho correlations, we identified significant long-term changes, including an increase in the frequency of visits by previously infrequent users, a reduction in visit durations, and a rise in high-intensity activities. These trends persisted 9months post-isolation, highlighting the pandemic's lasting impact on green space usage and its critical role in enhancing public health and pandemic preparedness through thoughtful urban environmental design. This study not only sheds light on behavioral adaptations during a public health crisis but also offers evidence-based strategies for urban planning to bolster societal resilience in the face of future pandemics.

Community pharmacists’ roles during the closure stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada: a qualitative case study

ObjectivesTo explore the experiences and perspectives of community pharmacists regarding their roles during the closure stage (ie, March to May 2020) of the COVID-19 pandemic in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL),...

Machine learning approaches for influenza A virus risk assessment identifies predictive correlates using ferret model in vivo data

In vivo assessments of influenza A virus (IAV) pathogenicity and transmissibility in ferrets represent a crucial component of many pandemic risk assessment rubrics, but few systematic efforts to identify which data from in vivo experimentation are most useful for predicting pathogenesis and transmission outcomes have been conducted. To this aim, we aggregated viral and molecular data from 125 contemporary IAV (H1, H2, H3, H5, H7, and H9 subtypes) evaluated in ferrets under a consistent protocol. Three overarching predictive classification outcomes (lethality, morbidity, transmissibility) were constructed using machine learning (ML) techniques, employing datasets emphasizing virological and clinical parameters from inoculated ferrets, limited to viral sequence-based information, or combining both data types. Among 11 different ML algorithms tested and assessed, gradient boosting machines and random forest algorithms yielded the highest performance, with models for lethality and transmission consistently better performing than models predicting morbidity. Comparisons of feature selection among models was performed, and highest performing models were validated with results from external risk assessment studies. Our findings show that ML algorithms can be used to summarize complex in vivo experimental work into succinct summaries that inform and enhance risk assessment criteria for pandemic preparedness that take in vivo data into account.

Long-term surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in the school community from Campo Grande, Brazil

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted education systems worldwide, with Brazil being one of the countries with the longest school closures. Over a million children and teenagers have been affected, leading to increased hunger and nutritional deficiencies. This study aimed to implement long-term surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 infections in public and private schools in Campo Grande, Brazil, after returning to in-person classes.MethodsThe study involved testing and genomic surveillance at 23 public and private schools in Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, from October 18, 2021 to November 21, 2022. The participants eligible for enrollment were students aged 6–17 years and staff members from school institutions. At the time of collection, participants were asked if they had symptoms in the last two weeks. Whole-genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 was conducted to identify circulating variants and to compare them with those detected in the municipality. The demographic data and clinical history of the participants were described, and a logistic regression model was used to understand how the RT-qPCR results could be related to different characteristics.ResultsThe study included 999 participants, most of whom were women. A total of 85 tests were positive, with an overall positivity rate of 3.2%. The dynamics of case frequency were consistent with those observed in the municipality during the study period. The most common symptoms reported were cough, rhinorrhea, headache, and sore throat. Symptoms were significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Eleven lineages were identified in school community samples, with a frequency of occurrence per period similar to that found in the sequences available for the municipality. The most prevalent lineages within the sampling period were BA.2 (59.3%) and BA.5 (29.6%).ConclusionsOur findings demonstrate that schools can play a crucial role in epidemiological surveillance, helping trigger rapid responses to pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2. Long-term surveillance can be used to track outbreaks and assess the role of children and adults in transmission. It can also contribute to pandemic preparedness, enabling a rapid response to emergencies, such as COVID-19.

Factors influencing healthcare workers' and health system preparedness for the COVID-19 pandemic: A qualitative study in Ghana.

Adequate preparedness of health systems, particularly healthcare workers (HCWs), to respond to COVID-19 is critical for the effective control of the virus, especially in low- and middle-income countries where health systems are overburdened. We examined Ghanaian HCWs' perceived preparedness to respond to the pandemic and the factors that shaped their preparedness and that of the health system. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with n = 26 HCWs responsible for the clinical management of COVID-19 patients and three administrators responsible for developing and implementing COVID-19 policies at the facility level. Interviews were conducted over the phone in English, transcribed, and analyzed using a thematic analysis approach. Generally, HCWs felt inadequately prepared to contain the spread of COVID-19 due to resource shortages and inadequate training. HCWs, similarly, perceived the health system to be unprepared due to insufficient clinical infrastructure and logistical challenges. The few who felt prepared identified readiness in managing high consequence infectious disease cases and pre-existing protocols as enablers of HCW preparedness. The health system and HCWs were unprepared to manage the COVID-19 pandemic due to inadequate training, logistical challenges, and weak clinical infrastructure. Interventions are urgently needed to improve the health system's preparedness for future pandemics.

From discovery to innovation in animal health: Maturing emerging technologies for industrial development

The Discovery to Innovation in Animal Health Conference (DIAH) was organised to bridge the gap between early developers, including academia, regulators, research organizations, and spin-offs/start-ups on one side, and medium-to large-sized companies on the other. The DIAH Conference confronted and aligned vision from academia, industry and regulators, emphasizing the need for early collaboration, careful IP management, and strategic planning for successful product development and partnerships. Recent breakthroughs in vaccinology have not only accelerated the vaccine production process but have also improved antigen quality significantly. These novel technologies are likely to transform vaccine development and play a crucial role in addressing both immediate health challenges (such as cancer vaccines) and ensuring preparedness for future pandemics. The potential and pitfalls of leveraging AI to drive forward R&I activities in the field of animal health were also discussed. Researchers and entrepreneurs looking for collaboration or investment presented a series of new technologies and start-ups, respectively. A market analysis showed that the animal health industry, while highly consolidated, also shows great diversity, ranging from big pharma to companies offering diagnostics, nutritional health services, wearables, feed additives, animal feed and genetic analyses. An analysis of the investment landscape, although subject to external factors, showed that the chances for success are high when good science, a well established regulatory pathways, with a clearly defined market need can be combined with experienced management and a strong investor consortium.

Coping strategies in young people during the COVID-19 pandemic: rapid review.

To better understand factors supporting young people's (age <18 years) mental health during pandemic-type conditions, we aimed to identify whether coping strategies adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic could be dichotomised according to manifesting positive or negative psychological outcomes. Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Scopus and ASSIA databases were used to identify empirical studies that examined coping strategies used by young people experiencing psychological challenges during COVID-19. Twenty-five international studies were included, identifying that coping strategies adopted could be significantly dichotomised according to reducing or exacerbating psychological challenges. Positive coping strategies were proactive and solutions-oriented, whereas negative coping strategies were more avoidant and emotion-oriented. An internal locus of control may account for why adolescents exercised more proactive coping compared with their younger counterparts, although parents of younger children may offset the impact of stressors by drawing on a proposed coping framework emphasising proactivity and engagement. This would be an invaluable addition to future pandemic preparedness planning cycles.

Availability of essential medicines during the COVID-19 pandemic: A qualitative study examining experiences and level of preparedness in Kenya.

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the availability of essential medicines in Kenya and suggests actionable measures to enhance the country's preparedness for future pandemics. Utilising a cross-sectional qualitative design, the research combines a systematic review of the literature and 20 key informant interviews to provide a comprehensive analysis. The initial response to the pandemic involved resource reallocation, disrupting the procurement of essential medicines at national and county levels. Inefficiencies in these systems resulted in shortages and wastages of crucial medicines, exposing vulnerabilities in the health system. Furthermore, the study reveals regulatory policy weaknesses in Kenya, such as an inadequate legal framework for domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing and conflicting policies hindering medicine availability. The study recommends a multifaceted policy approach to ensure essential medicine availability during crises. Key recommendations include strengthening financial systems through increased government investments and innovative funding mechanisms, implementing price regulation policies, and enhancing the resilience of supply chain and procurement systems. Collaboration among various supply systems is essential to prevent stock-outs. Strengthening legislation and regulatory policies, increasing domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity, and investing in health information systems are vital for sustained self-sufficiency and efficient service delivery. These comprehensive measures are essential to promote essential medicine availability, safeguard public health, and enhance resilience during crises.

Modifiable lifestyle factors and the risk of post-COVID-19 multisystem sequelae, hospitalization, and death

Effective prevention strategies for post-COVID complications are crucial for patients, clinicians, and policy makers to mitigate their cumulative burden. This study evaluated the association of modifiable lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol intake, BMI, physical activity, sedentary time, sleep duration, and dietary habits) with COVID-19 multisystem sequelae, death, and hospitalization in the UK Biobank cohort (n = 68,896). A favorable lifestyle (6-10 healthy factors; 46.4%) was associated with a 36% lower risk of multisystem sequelae (HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.58-0.69; ARR at 210 days, 7.08%; 95% CI, 5.98-8.09) compared to an unfavorable lifestyle (0-4 factors; 12.3%). Risk reductions spanned all 10 organ systems, including cardiovascular, coagulation, metabolic, gastrointestinal, kidney, mental health, musculoskeletal, respiratory disorders, and fatigue. This beneficial effect was largely attributable to direct lifestyle impacts independent of corresponding pre-infection comorbidities (71% for any sequelae). A favorable lifestyle was also related to the risk of post-COVID death (HR 0.59, 0.52-0.66) and hospitalization (HR 0.78, 0.73-0.84). These associations persisted across acute and post-acute infection phases, irrespective of hospitalization status, vaccination, or SARS-CoV-2 variant. These findings underscore the clinical and public health importance of adhering to a healthy lifestyle in mitigating long-term COVID-19 adverse impacts and enhancing future pandemic preparedness.