This article assesses the potential impact that a massive, organized, and sustained nonviolent Palestinian resistance movement can have on Israeli society. Based on the recognition of the growing success of nonviolent strategies internationally, the subjective Israeli perceptions due to a Jewish collective memory of victimhood, and the perceived efficacy of violent and nonviolent actions through the Israeli- Palestinian conflict, we conclude that such an unprecedented strategy has a strong likelihood of yielding an independent Palestinian state alongside a state of Israel. The nonviolent revolts against the long-ruling dictators in North Africa and the Middle East have spread like wildfire early in the second decade of the 21st century. At this time, many Palestinians have been considering how best to translate the strategies of such a spontaneous movement to meet their own needs. Clearly, there are some differences between what is in most cases a regime change with the massive support of the population, and the particular case of an uprising against the formidable military control of an Israeli government that has a large majority conditioned to support the suppression of an enemy's revolt. A realistic analysis of Israeli reactions to potential sustained Palestinian leadership and massive nonviolent struggle could be shaped mostly by the impact of three variables: a) recognition of the growing success of nonviolent strategies in the international context; b) subjective Israeli perceptions based on collective memory of victimhood and persecution in Jewish history, and c) the perceived efficacy of violent and nonviolent actions throughout the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly from the experiences of the first and second Intifada. In this article we briefly discuss a) and b) but are mainly focusing on c), a variable whose effect the Palestinians can still determine. In analyzing the latter, three key elements will be emphasized. First, Jewish-Is- raeli perceptions and stereotypes of past Palestinian resistance will be briefly discussed. Second, based on the lessons learned and opinions gathered, we assess the potential impact that nonviolent resistance can have on official and societal Israeli behavior. In the concluding section, looking into the future, we assess the likelihood that a nonviolent strategy will create an environment for an eventual sustainable resolution with a Palestinian state alongside a Jewish State of Israel. Means and ends have an important correlation. Moderation in Arab aims has occurred since the 19th Palestinian National Council in 1988, which established the Declaration of Independence recognizing the State of Israel in its pre-1967 borders. This moderation became regionalized with the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. Additionally, amid Palestinian reconciliation efforts, if Hamas genuinely joins the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) - at least implicitly agreeing to the Oslo Accords - there would be a larger Palestinian mandate to uphold a potential peace agreement with Israel. If such steps can be accompanied by a massive, long-term struggle legitimated by nonviolent means, then growing support at the international level and dissonance with unchanged (Israeli) official policy are likely to indirectly impact Israeli public opinion and strengthen the peace camp in Israel. This article builds on previous research conducted with colleagues from the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace (Hebrew University, Jerusalem) and Palestinian Middle East Nonviolence and Democracy (MEND, Jerusalem) between 2002-2004.1 It draws on an analysis of the Israeli reactions to the first and second Intifadas, including public opinion polls; content analysis of the media and coverage of specific events; interviews with activists from nonviolent grassroot organizations; focus groups (academics, media, students); and the personal experience of one of the authors, having been actively involved with this issue since the mid-1980s. …
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