Pakistan Rupees Research Articles

Time Series Intervention Modelling Based on ESM and ARIMA Models: Daily Pakistan Rupee/Nigerian Naira Exchange Rate

The battered Nigerian economy has slipped into its second economic recession in five years due to the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. And this has had a remarkable effect on the value of the Nigerian Naira that are exchanged for a unit of many other currencies of the world. Intervention modelling is used to assess the impact of this external event on the Pakistan Rupee to the Nigerian Naira exchange rates. The dataset for this study is the daily Nigerian Naira exchange rate with respect to the Pakistan Rupee from January–December 2020. The intervention point is marked on April 10, 2020, as a pulse function for the PKR/NGN series. Results revealed that the economic recession due to the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic increased the value of the Nigerian Naira by 3.38% against the Pakistan Rupee, which 1PKR is exchanged for 2.2042NGN compared to the periods before and after the intervention occurred. The intervention was felt at the point of intervention itself but the effect dies immediately after the intervention. Hence, the intervention response is described as an abrupt start and abrupt decay.

Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Pakistan’s Financial Indicators

Across the globe, the financial and health system of the developing and developed countries is shattered by the novel coronavirus COVID-19 since its outbreak. It has affected the financial system of all the countries but has severe consequences on less developed and weak financial system countries. This study investigated the impact of the novel COVID-19 on different sectors concerning the Pakistan economy.This research investigated the impact of COVID-19 on Pakistan Stock Exchange, gold rate, interest rate and exchange rates. The time period used for data analysis was from 27th February 2020 to 31st March 2020. The outcome confirms that Pakistan stock is severely hit by the COVID-19 and showing the decline in their 100 index and total share index. The results also revealed that the gold rate and exchange rate showed a rapid increase in their prices. This epidemic has devalued the Pakistan rupees from 154 to 166 and showing a decline. The gold rate is also affected by this epidemic and showing an increase in their rates. The results show that the government is taking action to provide some facilities to different sectors to cope with the outbreak, and it will stabilize the financial system in the country.

Breast Feeding Practices and Knowledge In Semi urban Area Of Pakistan

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the optimal breastfeeding practices and itsknowledge in women of semi- urban areas of Pakistan.
 Methods: This cross-sectional descriptive study was carried out at the Pediatrics outpatient department. The data was collected in three months, from the 9th of March to the 6th of June 2021. Two hundred (200) mothers of children less than two years of age were included in the study. A pre-structured questionnaire was used to interview mothers and readings were recorded. Demographic variables and mothers’ knowledge and practices of breast feeding were evaluated. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS version 23.Results: The majority of mothers belonged to the age group 20-30 years, were educated to variousgrades of schooling, underwent caesarean section, had children less than 1 year of age, and came from families earning less than Pakistan Rupees 20,000 per month. The majority also thought to initiate breastfeeding after one hour of birth, were aware of it to be the first thing offered to neonates after birth, and knew beneficial effects of breastfeeding on maternal health. Though the majority of the mothers practiced prelacteal feed and didn’t exclusively breastfeed their child but practiced awakening their child for feeding if interval exceeded two hours. Most common prelacteal feed was honey, and bottle feeding was the most preferred mode of feeding the infant. Exclusive breastfeeding was found to be significantly associated with the mode of delivery (p=0.044). No statistically significant association was found between exclusive breastfeeding with early initiation of feeding, maternal age, and maternal education.
 Conclusion: The present study reveals that despite awareness, ‘optimal breastfeeding’ is not prac-ticed adequately in semi-urban areas of Pakistan. Mothers should be timely and properly counseled by healthcare professionals for breastfeeding to reduce morbidity and mortality in fants.

Forecasting Exchange Rate of Pakistan Using Time Series Analysis

Exchange rates are crucial in regulating the foreign exchange market's dynamics. Because of the unpredictability and volatility of currency rates, the exchange rate prediction has become one of the most challenging applications of financial time series forecasting. This study aims to build and compare the accuracy of various methods. The time series model Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) are utilized to forecast the daily US dollar to Pakistan rupee currency exchange rates (USD/PKR). Lagged observations of the data series and moving average technical analysis are used in both models. Explanatory factors were used as indicators, and the prediction performance was assessed using a variety of commonly known statistical metrics. These statistical metrics suggested the presence of conditional heteroscedasticity. Thus, the process turns to capture the volatility effect of conditional heteroscedasticity through GARCH modeling. It may be inferred based on the results of tentative models; that the ARCH model outperforms the GARCH model in terms of predicting the USD/PKR exchange rate.

Health research funding and its output in Pakistan.

Health research is very important for formulating evidence-based policies. To assess the health research funding and its output in the last 5 fiscal years (2013/14 to 2018) in Pakistan. Information about health research funding was retrieved from 3 major local agencies, the Higher Education Commission, the Pakistan Science Foundation and the Pakistan Health Research Council. Details of funding from international donors were retrieved and the number of publications was estimated from Pubmed and Pakmedinet. A total of 1261.6 million Pakistan rupees (Rs) (US$ 8.4 million) was spent on health research in the last 5 fiscal years, the majority from local donors (P < 0.02). Overall funding increased from Rs 104.7 million in 2013-2014 to Rs 349.8 million 2017-2018. In publications data, 24 796 original articles were published, including 16 137 Medline and 8659 non-Medline indexed. Overall there was a gradual increase in the number of publications per year, statistically significant for Medline indexed journals. Research funding had a strong correlation (Cronbach α=0.88) with publications. Health research funding directly affects health research output. The funding on health research should be considered an investment rather than expenditure.

Economic Considerations for Advancement Through the Progressive Control Pathway: Cost-Benefit Analysis of an FMD Disease-Free Zone in Punjab Province, Pakistan.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a priority disease of livestock in Pakistan, which was classified in stage 2 of the Progressive Control Pathway (PCP-FMD) in 2015, aiming to reduce disease impact. Further progression requires efforts to reduce viral circulation that may ultimately result in being awarded official disease-free status by the World Organisation for Animal Health [Office International des Epizooties (OIE)]. Typically, FMD control is reliant on the extensive use of vaccines, requiring careful consideration of the costs and benefits to ensure investment is likely to provide a positive return. This study conducted a cost–benefit analysis (CBA) for a proposed zone within Punjab Province, Pakistan. Benefits were assumed to come from averted production losses and treatment costs and the costs based on typical measures required for establishing a disease-free zone. To estimate the impact of FMD at the farm level, models were created to estimate effects on milk production, offtakes, and changes in herd value over a 5-year period with different parameters used to represent the production systems present. Control strategy costs incorporated aspects of vaccination, surveillance, sanitary measures, program management, stakeholder engagement, preparatory studies, training, and capacity building. The results indicated a median benefit–cost ratio of 1.03 (90% central range 0.37, 1.63) with a median net present value of 1.99 billion Pakistan Rupees (90% central range −37.7, 37.0). The greatest cost was due to vaccination at 56%, followed by sanitary measures (including implementing and maintaining an animal ID system and quarantine stations around the zone) at 41%. Although the median benefit–cost ratio and net present value indicated that investment is likely to generate a positive return, the large variation indicates caution in interpreting the results and it is possible that an increase in animal value through new export markets will be required. Further refinement in our knowledge of disease impact and the details of the control strategy are needed. Moreover, there are implications regarding vaccine security, since the strategy is reliant on the steady provision of quality vaccines in order to achieve the anticipated benefits, raising important issues on vaccine availability for countries to maintain lucrative export markets for FMD.

Evaluating consumption and expenditure patterns of antibiotics in tablet and capsule dosage forms: Pakistan Antibiotic Consumption Surveillance (PACS)

AbstractBackgroundAntibiotics are available in the marketplace in the form of tablets and capsules, and are mostly self‐prescribed by patients, with the consequent emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This study evaluated the consumption patterns of antimicrobials in these dosage forms during 2017 in Pakistan.MethodsData were acquired retrospectively from the International Medical Statistics (IMS) survey, Pakistan. Only the dosage forms of tablets and capsules constituting four major classes of antibiotics were included in the present study. Antibiotic consumption was measured using the World Health Organization's Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical Classification System with Daily Defined Doses (ATC/DDD) methodology. In addition, we calculated the DID as the total DDDs of antibiotic consumed in a defined period in that area per 1000 people. Expenditure was measured in Pakistan rupees (PKR) and converted to US dollars.ResultsTotal consumption of tablet and capsule dosage forms of antibiotics was found to be 10.6 DID, whereas total expenditure was US$221.5 million (26.69 billion PKR). Of all antibiotics, the most widely consumed were co‐amoxiclav (1.89 DID), levofloxacin (DID 1.41), ciprofloxacin (DID 1.38) and amoxicillin (DID 1.32). The top class of antibiotics based on expenditure was fluoroquinolones (ATC code J01MA), followed by combinations of penicillins (J01CR), third‐generation cephalosporins (J01DD) and macrolides (J01FA).ConclusionsExcessive consumption of broad‐spectrum and clinically important classes of antibiotics was observed. The study findings can serve as baseline data for policy makers and authorities to shape and design policies for the rational and cost‐effective use of antibiotics, reducing the burden of AMR and ensuring the economic use of antibiotics.

Acute Diarrheal Management in Adults: A Simulated Client Study at Community Pharmacies of Quetta City, Pakistan

Objective: By using a simulated client approach, we aimed to assess the management of acute diarrhea in adults at community pharmacies in Quetta City, Pakistan. Methods: This was a cross sectional, simulated client study. The study was carried out in Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan province, Pakistan. Community pharmacies located in the urban region with more than 100 clients per day were targeted for data collection. The simulated client presented himself at the community pharmacies seeking treatment for acute diarrhea with a pre-planned discussion protocol. SPSS v 21.0 was use for data analysis. Based on the objectives of the study, data was described descriptively as frequencies and percentages. Results: A total of 185 pharmacies qualified for the study as per inclusion criteria but data was available from 155 CPs (83.7%). The average working hours for the CPs were fourteen while qualified pharmacist was only present in fifteen (9.6%) of the pharmacies. The consultation time at the pharmacies ranged from 1-4 mins with a mean of 2.37±0.535 mins. Tablet metronidazole was the most frequent medicine dispensed (78.1%) at the CPs. Dimenhydrinate was dispensed (41.3%) followed by Oral Rehydration Solution (ORS) and tablet domperidone (35.5 and 25.8%) respectively. Minimum cost of medicine dispensed ranged from 10 Pakistan Rupees (PKR) i.e. (0.086 USD) to 960 PKR i.e. (8.30 USD). Conclusion: The management of acute diarrhea failed to meet the standard anti-diarrheal treatment as proposed by the guidelines. Therefore, a substantial improvement of pharmacy practice at the community pharmacies is urgently needed. Key words: Acute Diarrheal Management, Community Pharmacies, Quetta, Simulated Client Study,

Does gold act as a safe haven against exchange rate fluctuations? The case of Pakistan rupee

Investors often look for a refuge to avoid undesirable exposures to risk during period of extreme downturns in currency returns. We investigate daily gold and rupee exchange rates depreciation against set of currencies over the period of 1992–2015. Using wavelets at multiple time horizons; we find that gold act as a consistent short run hedge against exchange rate hence validating the exchange rate destruction hypothesis. This finding is helpful for speculators in their decision making while taking long and short positions accordingly. This finding suggests that central bank also need to keep other safe haven assets in reserves because the hedging ability of gold is only limited to short run. Further, the role of gold in providing protection against currency risks is also confirmed using quantile regression. These results assist portfolio managers and governments in formulating effectual diversification strategy for preserving investment portfolio during extreme event condition. Our results also suggest that gold has a lead relationship with exchange rate; however, this relationship switches over specific time intervals. This finding is of major concern for policy makers in determining the extent of stabilization in gold prices to bring consistency to exchange rate. Finally, the Granger coherence coefficients confirm that the strength of the causal relationship varies across over all frequencies. These conclusions have important implications for policy makers, economic analysts, portfolio managers and institutional investors.

Currency depreciation and output nexus: Evidence from Pakistan

Currency depreciation as a channel of output management has been a hot and controversial topic in both developed and developing economies. In Pakistan?s case, relevant research would require study of annual data available for the period 1972 to 2010. The stationarity of variables under consideration at different orders require the application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration. The findings based on open economy IS-LM framework induce a negative effect of currency depreciation on output levels. This is consistent with the long-run estimates of the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model. The short-run estimates of error-correction model (ECM) may lead to significant increment in output levels because of the depreciation of Pakistan rupee. Government spending may cause to reduce the output in the short-run, as well as, in long-run which furnishes strong support to crowding out hypothesis. The terms of trade, positive in the short-run, are negatively related to output in the long-run. However, surprise money has been insignificant in both long-run and short-run ECM. The country would need a clear long-term policy regime that inspires trust of the international community and restores the exporters? confidence.

Vertical electrical sounding (ves) for salinity assessment of water-bearing formations

Electrical resistivity surveys (1-D) were carried out at selected sites in the region between the confluent rivers (Ravi and Jhelum) of Punjab, Pakistan, to audit tubewell placement and depth in order to minimize the amount of salt applied to the soil through irrigation. The Schlumberger electrode configuration was employed to collect the resistivity data and the resultant resistivity vs depth models for each site were estimated. From the interpretation of vertical electrical sounding (VES) data, the sites had one to three aquifer layers of different salinity levels and fitness for irrigation (FFI) classes ranging from good groundwater quality (FFI1) to highly saline up to 6.4 dS m−1 (FFI3). Twenty-one tubewells were investigated and it was found that not only were most wells theoretically suboptimally placed (57%) with respect to the best water quality available but also 33% were sunk at too deep a level, bypassing aquifer layers of better water quality [FFI1]. From the cost–benefit analysis, it was estimated that a total of 64 000 Pakistan rupees could have been saved on five wells through installation costs due to suboptimal depths. It is concluded that VES is an effective method for the evaluation of existing wells and aquifer systems. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Health-related quality of life and depression among medical sales representatives in Pakistan.

Pharmaceutical companies have been known to pose stress and mental harassment on medical sales representatives (MSRs) in-order to increase pharmaceutical sales. This cross sectional descriptive study, conducted during November and December 2014 in the Lahore and Bahawalpur districts of Punjab, Pakistan, evaluates the Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) and extent of depression among MSRs in Pakistan. The significant predictors of HRQoL and depression among the MSRs were also determined. Using a convenience sampling technique, all consenting MSRs (N = 318) of pharmaceutical companies were asked to self-complete the Short Form-36 (SF-36v2) Health Survey and Stanford Personal Health Questionnaire (PHQ-8). The standard scoring scheme for the SF36v2 and PHQ-8 questionnaires was used. The PHQ-8 scores showed that 16.4 % (n = 52) and 2.5 % of respondents were suffering from major depression and severe major depression, respectively. Being depressed and having difficulty in achieving sales targets were the factors independently associated with lower physical health. Similarly, depression, insufficient time for the family and monthly income less than 36,000 Pakistan Rupees were significant predictors of lower mental health. The factors associated with depression included insufficient time for the family and unsatisfactory behavior of the managers. Compromised mental health and the prevalence of depression among the MSRs suggest pharmaceutical companies need to devise health management strategies and interventions to ensure effective prevention and management of mental health problems among Pakistani MSRs.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40064-016-2716-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

English

Proper tooth brushing technique along with tooth brush replacement at recommended intervals may help to protect the accumulation of plaque and reduce the prevalence of dental caries and gingivitis. We aimed to determine the frequency of tooth brush change and the variables associated with this practice in population living in Karachi. A cross sectional study was conducted among dental Orthodontics and Pediatric Dentistry (OPD) visitors of DIKIOHS in Karachi, from, March to May, 2015. A total of 232 participants were selected by using consecutive sampling technique. Data were collected by using a semi structured pretested questionnaire. Socio-demographic and behavioral factors related to tooth brush changing were identified by applying logistic regression model. Majority of participants (65%) were changing tooth brush at every 3 months. After adjusting socio-demographic and dental variables, the odds of changing tooth brush within 3 months among participants who brush more than twice a day, were 3 times more (AOR= 3.49, CI= 1.054 &ndash; 11.571) as compared to those who brush once a day. The other factors that showed significant association in multivariate analysis were people who had monthly income &gt;50,000 Pakistan rupees, users of other mouth cleaning aids and people using tooth brush with soft bristles. This study concluded that majority of the participants were changing their tooth brush at recommended intervals and different variables (demographic, socioeconomic and dental) are associated with the frequency of tooth brush changing.&nbsp; &nbsp; Key words: Tooth brush change, oral hygiene variables, Karachi.

Prevalence and economic losses of reproductive disorders and mastitis in buffaloes at Karachi, Pakistan

The water buffalo play a significant role in the economy of livestock industry of Pakistan. The present study was conducted to evaluate the prevalence of reproductive disorders in 928 buffaloes and its economic impact on dairy farms in 2014-15. The data were collected from Landhi Cattle Colony Karachi to analyze the reproductive disorders and mastitis problems in dairy buffaloes. The prevalence of the abortion recorded was 41% which was significantly highest (P&lt;0.01) as compare to others disorders. Whereas, repeat breeding, dystocia, retention of placenta, vaginal prolapse and vaginitis were 32%, 14%, 8%, 5 % and 2% respectively in water buffaloes. Moreover, mastitis cases were 11% in Landhi cattle colony Karachi during study period. The economic losses due to abortion, repeat breeding, dystocia, vaginal prolapse, vaginitis and mastitis were 320, 320, 640, 480, 560, 240 and 640 Pakistan rupees per animal respectively in water buffaloes. In conclusion, findings of the present study indicated that mastitis, abortions and dystocia caused major economic losses to dairy farms at Landhi Cattle Colony Karachi during study period.

Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Development: The Case of Pakistan

Abstract Recent findings in the economic growth literature suggest that developing countries need to keep a devalued exchange rate to stimulate their long-run economic growth. In light of this view, we assess the alignment of the real exchange rate of Pakistan, a developing country where sustained economic growth has proved to be elusive during the last two decades. After finding that the Pakistan rupee has been significantly and increasingly overvalued in real terms from 2005 – significantly above the over-valuation detected by International Monetary Fund (IMF) –, we simulate the general equilibrium effects of an eventual re-alignment of the Pakistani real exchange rate with economic fundamentals, and find that realignment would not only lead to a sizable increase in the relative size of the tradable sector - where productivity increases tend to be faster – but also to an associated re-distribution of income in favor of the urban poor and the (relatively disadvantaged) rural households. These findings reinforce recent arguments in the growth literature, and suggest the need for the Pakistani government to achieve – and sustain – a devalued exchange rate to boost its economic development prospects.

Association between Hepatitis B-Related Knowledge and Health-Related Quality of Life

Purpose: To evaluate the association between patient’s knowledge of Hepatitis-B and Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL). Methods: A cross sectional, descriptive study was undertaken with 390 hepatitis-B patients attending two public hospitals in Quetta City, Pakistan. Knowledge of hepatitis-B was assessed using a prevalidated questionnaire. European Quality of Life scale was used for the assessment of HRQoL. Descriptive analysis was used to elaborate patients’ demographic characteristics while inferential statistics were applied to report the association among study variables. Spearman’s rho correlation was used to identify the association between variables. Results: Out of 390, (230, 59.5 %) were males and the mean age of the subjects was 36.2 ± 9.2 years. One hundred and three (26 %) had primary level of education and 109 (27.9 %) were employees in the private sector. Eighty four (21 %) had a monthly income of between 10001-15000 Pakistan rupees (1 PKR = 0.0115527 USD) with 272 (69.7 %) respondents resident in urban areas. Mean HRQoL and Hepatitis-B related knowledge (HBRK) scores were categorized as poor (0.37± 0.3) and (8.52 ± 2.7) respectively. The correlation coefficient between HRQoL and HBRK was -0.102 (p < 0.001), indicating a week negative association between the study variables. Conclusion: The findings indicate a negative association between Hepatitis-B related knowledge and HRQoL. Therefore, providing disease-related knowledge to patients does not necessarily improve HRQoL. More attention should be given to identify individual factors that affect HRQoL among patients with Hepatitis-B.

Effects of Economic Sanction on Financial Markets

This paper seeks to analyze the effects of economic sanctions on financial markets. It will first consider the direct and indirect effects of economic sanctions on the target country, the country imposing the sanctions, and third-party countries. The paper will then narrow down to the indirect effects of economic sanctions on the financial markets of the target country and third-party countries. The paper will then use Pakistan and India as case studies of the impact of economic sanctions on the financial markets and how countries can cushion their financial markets against the adverse effects of economic sanctions. The economic sanctions of 1998 imposed on Pakistan and India affected the financial markets of the two countries differently. On one hand, Pakistan was hit hard by the sanctions, leading to, among other things, a fall in the country’s foreign exchange reserves to $458 million within the first three months and a 28%. depreciation in the open market rate for the Pakistan Rupee (Rs.). On the other hand, India’s financial markets were only affected during the first few days after the announcement of the sanction and then stabilized later on.

Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus: An Emerging Threat to Goat Farming in Pakistan

Pakistan at present is having more than 60 million head of goats, which consist of about 37 well-recognized breeds found in different regions of the country. Although the goat farming on commercial level is escalating in Pakistan, there are threats, which result this initiative into a loss. Among these threats, Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) outbreaks are causing huge economic damages. In this study, three outbreaks of PPR were confirmed at three different commercial farms in various regions of Punjab province and their economic impact on small ruminants farming was calculated. The disease started after 1-2 months of the establishment of these farms as the animals were purchased from different livestock markets. Disease started with sudden onset of respiratory and enteric clinical signs and spreads quickly. Disease caused mortality and morbidity of 10-15% and 20-40%, respectively, within a time period of 01-03 weeks. At these three farms, 116 of 365 animals exhibited the clinical disease, with an overall morbidity rate of 31.78%. A total of 43 animals died with mortality rate of 11.78% (43/365) causing a direct financial loss of $4300 (Pakistan Rupees 430,000/-), while the indirect cost due to treatment, loss of animal body condition, reduction in market value, increase veterinary services and labour was $7911 (Pak Rs. 791,100/-). Taken together, the results demonstrate that there is an urgent need to assess the economic impact of the disease throughout the country and to give proper emphasis for controlling PPR in sensitive regions where it is discouraging the investment in goat farming.

Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Development: The Case of Pakistan

Abstract Recent findings in the economic growth literature suggest that developing countries need to keep a devalued exchange rate to stimulate their long-run economic growth. In light of this view, we assess the alignment of the real exchange rate of Pakistan, a developing country where sustained economic growth has proved to be elusive during the last two decades. After finding that the Pakistan rupee has been significantly and increasingly overvalued in real terms from 2005 – significantly above the over-valuation detected by International Monetary Fund (IMF) –, we simulate the general equilibrium effects of an eventual re-alignment of the Pakistani real exchange rate with economic fundamentals, and find that realignment would not only lead to a sizable increase in the relative size of the tradable sector - where productivity increases tend to be faster – but also to an associated re-distribution of income in favor of the urban poor and the (relatively disadvantaged) rural households. These findings reinforce recent arguments in the growth literature, and suggest the need for the Pakistani government to achieve – and sustain – a devalued exchange rate to boost its economic development prospects.

One-Step-Ahead Forecastability of GARCH (1,1): A Comparative Analysis of USD- and PKR-Based Exchange Rate Volatilities

This study aims to capture volatility patterns using GARCH (1,1) models. It evaluates these models to obtain one-step-ahead forecastabilities by employing four major forecasting evaluation criteria, and compares two different currencies— the Pakistan rupee and the US dollar—as domestic and foreign currency-valued exchange rates, respectively. The results show that using an international vehicle currency is favorable in Pakistan’s context. However, the Kuwaiti dinar, Canadian dollar, US dollar, Singapore dollar, Hong Kong dollar, and Malaysian ringgit are found to be preferable when performing direct international transactions. Using the root mean square errors and mean absolute errors techniques, the study also assess the robustness of measuring one-step-ahead forecasts.