Pakistan In Long Run Research Articles

Macroeconomic Factor Affecting Non-Performing Loans (NPLs): Evidence from Commercial Bank in Pakistan Based ARDL Cointegration Approach

AbstractThe main objective of this study is to measure the NPLS in Pakistan’s commercial bank. The macroeconomic factor of Country GDP, corruption, unemployment, political instability and inflation it’s nettle the level of NPLS in commercial bank in Pakistan. The unemployment, increasing of interest rate, low economic growth and money laundering they elaborate the changing in NPLS. high inflation, unemployment ratio, huge cases of corruption, political instability are faced by the country.we are working time series data of Pakistan from 1972 to 2022 by using ARDL long and short run. We find that there is long run relationship exist between the variables, and co-integration also have positive and significant impact on NPLS.Finding The observation of this study shows that efficiency of managing the productivity had important effects on NPLS. The policy maker should be establishing the steps for creditors to ensure superb loan management and they will grant to the banks. If the better steps for loan will be establish then the bank will be stable and so their works efficiently. The Finding shows that GDP has positive/negative and significant impact on NPLS of commercial banking in Pakistan in long run/ short run. However, corruption has positive/negative and insignificant impact on NPLs in long run/ short run, we also find that inflation has negative and significant impact on NPLs in long run/short run, we also observed that interest rate has negative and significant impact on NPLs in long run/short run.

The Impact of Afghan Refugee Influx on Labor Market Outcomes in Pakistan

The study gauges the impact of refugee influx on the labor market in Pakistan. The impact of Afghan refugees was analyzed using three indicators of labor market namely,unemployment, formal employment and informal employment from years 1979 to 2022. ARDL bound test for co-integrationis used to derive long run and short run relationship between labor market indicators and refugee inflow. It is found that Afghan refugees have caused positive impact on the labor market of Pakistan in long run while, in the short run it increase unemployment rate. Hence, it is concluded that refugees can serve as stimulus for investment and production in the country.

The impact of Afghan Refugee Influx on Labor Market Outcomes in Pakistan

The study gauges the impact of refugee influx on the labor market in Pakistan. The impact of Afghan refugees is analyzed using three indicators of labor market namely, unemployment, formal employment and informal employment from years 1979 to 2022. For the purpose of analysis, ADF and PP tests are applied first for examining unit root problem. Variables are found having mixed order of integration so ARDL bound test for co-integration is used to derive long run and short run relationship between labor market indicators and refugee inflow. It is found that Afghan refugees have caused positive impact on the labor market of Pakistan in long run while in the short run, it increases unemployment rate. Expenditure on Education, CPI, GDP, Trade Openness and Gross Fixed Capital are significantly reducing Unemployment rate of Pakistan. Expenditure on Education and Gross Fixed Capital are found to have positive effect while CPI and population Growth are reducing Formal Employment. Hence, it is concluded that refugees can serve as stimulus for investment and production in the country.
 

Consequences of Capital formation, Trade Liberalization on the Economic Growth: Pakistan’s Experience

This study considers the long run relationship between the liberalization of trade, capital formation and the economic growth of Pakistan by using the time series data from 1975-2013. The main aim of this study is to examine that how much liberalization of trade and capital formation affects the economic growth of Pakistan in long run. The approach that has been used for empirical analysis is Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Under the ADF test capital formation (CF) is stationary at its first level but the trade openness (TO) and GDP is stationary at its first difference. Moreover, the granger casualty test is evident that there become a casual relationship between the trade openness and GDP. The result of this study shows that both the trade openness and the capital formation determined the economic growth in long run and they both have statistically significant effect on the GDP. Furthermore it has has been depicted from the study that the trade has a vital role to influence the economic growth.